Up, Up, and Away? Or Triple-Top?

Don’t you just love these “where do we go from here?” posts!!??!! I haven't read yesterday's blog because I had to work, so I hope I don't step on anyone's toes here.

Here’s my view. First, the SPY



Notice the triple top forming? (60 minute chart). The red down channel on the left created a lower low than the previous low around the 17th, but mostly that was the bad news on the 23’rd. Since the 26th, we’ve been in a clear upchannel until yesterday, where we had a lower breakout, but recovered by the end of the day. I wouldn't exactly call this a "triple top" because the Stochastics did not return to the 20% level. But it is clearly a potential double top.

Now look also at the big volumes, and note most of them are at the lows. This to me means that more buyers are coming up from underneath at the low points than there are sellers above that want to keep and hold. This is an upward pressure for price.

Next is the RSP pic. The RSP is the unweighted SPY. For those of you who don’t know, the SPY is weighted by market cap. So it is representative of market value. The RSP is unweighted, and is more representative of market volumes (not market value).



See the areas of big volume around the 17th and 24th lows. What do we know about volumes? It’s your best buddy for a tell, next to price. See the double-and-triple volumes at those pricepoints? What does that mean? To me, it means that a lot of sideliners showed support and bought on those days. The RSP is in a clear upchannel, and is about to hit the resistance around 51.80. Is that meaningful resistance? No, because the volumes around the 19th, when that resistance was established, are quite low.

The other tell is that there was price follow-through after the “Big Vol” areas with much lower volume. That means there is continued sideline money flowing in, bidding the prices up.

This chart is full of bull. I am full of bull.

And Europe is full of bull. Not gonna let Greece fail yet, we will simply postpone the inevitable. But these charts reinforce my belief that any market effect of a Greek failure or restructure or whatever they want to call it will be a Braxton Hick, a fake contraction, and a buying opportunity.


It’s too bad I had to go back to work last night, so I couldn’t manage my shorts, but it seems RIMM is doing as we all expect, APPL continues to put it out of business, so that one’s OK, but my other ones, well, I’ll be hurt tonight on the open on my shorts, but my longs (like AAPL) will be outweighing the shorts so the total hurt shouldn’t be too bad.

I’ll bet there’s a pop on the open. As Dastro says, Will see.

So my conclusion is that this is an Up Up and Away pattern, and it will take more than Greece to bring us down! As it should, since only the banks will be pasted, when that happens.