With my best Maxwell Smart voice...
"The old trick to mention what you said is my view as opposed to your view just to make me talk about my true view" aha...it was a good one. So I'm going to talk a bit.
Rock dude, you need to calm down. If you thought that we are in some kind of pissing contest …well, probably you need to read reality better, and find another buddy.
Again and for the last time:
1)I said Sep 2 that the market was going to be in an uptrend at least 10-14 months. And was going to look like a giant wedge with three peaks in it‘s trajectory.
This means that July-November 2011 is the time for an end. I mentioned that no big drops like 25%-30% during that period will occur.
Why you say that you are bullish opposite to my view?
2)For months was letting everybody know that April-May was my main target for a decent correction. As time draw near I mentioned the first week of May as the point where it should start falling.
A decent correction is a secondary trend and I mentioned that several times.
A secondary trend means that the primary goes the opposite way and is still current.
3)Three Tuesday's ago I mentioned that I expected the market to bottom Thursday 16 with a puke and or late Wednesday or early Friday, like a 3rd order prediction. The puke didn't come but as long as the market makes the bottom that day, Thursday 16, with or without a puke, is good enough to me . Planets don’t wait for me to decide if I feel satisfied with their performance, they don’t do recaps for me.
Anyone can take a chart of the s&p500 and see that June 16 is a bottom. The puke is a violent form of bottoming usually called pipe bottom, so the FORM that I expected didn’t come but that doesn’t imply that we didn’t made a bottom June 16 for anyone to see..
So in my quest for bringing unparalleled excellence to the readers I kept looking for that puke. And probably came in a weak manner June 22nd and 23rd again with that big drop. I wasn’t too sure Thursday 22nd but Friday23rd did it again without breaking the June 16 bottom, the 200 mov. avg. and showing a rounded not impulsive bottom plus the Greek theater.
All this with certain astrological factors made me go long SPY calls at 3:16 past Friday. So I don’t really know what are you saying that my view is, but I can assure you is wrong.
My objective is to bring to people 3-5 calls that are the salient ones along a year, as a way to help (in case I’m correct) them develop their plans. That’s all.
Regarding trades is hard to keep updating what I’m doing not commenting too often
So Rock if you mention my views again in your post…(suspense)they have to be accurate. Lol.
Dan
Dan,
ReplyDeleteI had also forgotten your predictions.
I think we can make a reference back to a particular poster's predictions in the Labels.
Something like Dan's Predictions, Rock's Predictions, etc.
Any other suggestions would be appreciated because it is too easy to forget an important post's content.
Denise
ReplyDeleteThank you but it's not necessary. I'll keep centralized all my predictions at http://www.dastrostockmarket.com
So to prevent that people keep forgetting them they'll have all together, if interested.
Dan
Post
ReplyDeleteJust waiting June 21, 2011
Hello everybody.
Past week I was expecting a drop Thursday and/or Wednesday afternoon or Friday morning.
The drop came on-time making Thursday the lowest point.Though what didn't appear was the puke. So it was a mini-me version of what I was expecting, it follow the shape or pattern expected but failed in the intensity. So lowest point but no puke.
Could it be that the bottom is in? I'm going to wait a little more. In my post of Feb 15 Triplets I mentioned that Thursday 17 was the last day that I was going to wait for the beginning of a decent drop.
Friday made the top and Sunday night start dropping. So the lesson there is learn not to go too crazy with the exact day because sometimes doesn't work with that kind of precision.(Or at least I can not see it yet)...
Comments
Rock said...
Thanks for the thoughts, Dastro.
I'd like to comment about calling tops or bottoms.
Don't.
Thank you for your advice,So not calling top and bottom then, right?
Trust me, it is the differencing points of view (Denise is too far left for my point of view) and our ability to talk about them that make us a very unique group of people.
ReplyDeleteI do NOT profess to know anyone, who they are or where they came from, but I truly appreciate, everyone here who is willing to share.
Dan - Thank you for expressing how you see things and it may be my laid back style, but I surely did not read into Rocks posts the same way you did.
Rock - Well, from the get go, you have always claimed to be a Rock, stating what you see, but stating it in a way that others do not always understand.
I take NOTHING away from how anyone trades, that is how they trade and hopefully it makes them money.
Even though I do not agree with how far Denise Leans Left, I have always appreciated where she stands and have learned a great deal about trading (and Life) from her.
Just as her style is new to me, so is the concept of Astrology in trading and so are Rocks Herds.
But we learn and grow.
Dan, I have always enjoyed your style and who you are and I want to learn what you have to share, but only you know what is best for you.
Personally I think your shout out about Rock was a little un-called for, but I surely do not see things from how you may.
Anyway, thank you for stating your case, you have my support, but so does Rock and so does the far left leaning Denise :)
Your Friend
Mangy Mutt
Too many posts for me to keep up. T thought this was Thorsday, but I must be slipping.
ReplyDelete@Dss
Yes. You caught the move in X. I watch X pretty constantly, especially as it has moved down and down. My screener caught the pop today, but thanks to your post, I made a bunch of money. Thanks.
Stocks on the move: IDCC FMCN ARUN BGZ EDC HMIN TZA EZPW FIO GRMN VHC MAKO PANL
I am watching PANL. It's balance sheet is the pits, but it seems to have hit some kind of resistance, and may be moving northward in price.
I like their technology. I am not an investor, yet, but I have traded because of its volatility.
The other one that's interesting to me is MAKO. Their balance sheet is in the toilet, but they're up 50% over the last 3 months. Go figure.
Keep up the great watch!
@Todd:
ReplyDeleteThanks for your "cell phone" article yesterwhen.
At first, it depressed me. Until I realized it was simply an extension of the sequencer, assembly language, fortran, C, C++, HTML, DotNet progression. We simply pay for the ability to use the tools, rather than paying for knowledge and the ability to use it.
I feared this would come to pass when I sat on the IEEE board of accreditation and voted against WPI's proposal for BSET acceptance.
But now there is opportunity. First, a company to provide DOS services against your contemporary's access to services during the standards test.
Or how about a local answer database available through 802.11 so you don't have to use the phone wireless (slow) transactions?
Or how about a MITM attack to give the wrong answers?
Could be another opportunity for Symantec.
Morning all. Checked into real world thus morning and didn't like what I saw. What's weird is nobody I know is talking about this. Have we gone mad? No bailouts for the mn Sheeple.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/124752013.html
We have now passed the 50% retracement level on the ES. What a difference a few days makes.
ReplyDeleteBears are capitulating.
Rock,
ReplyDeleteI didn't understand a word you said. :-)
@Dss
ReplyDeleteThat's OK. I was just thinking if I was in competition with somebody in my class that wanted to get acceptance to Berkeley, and some guy called me and said "I can stop John's access to the answer machine", my parents just might be willing to invest a thou or two to give me that edge.
If I could hire a system to give John the wrong answers, or not be able to access the service at all, what would that be worth to my future?
61.8% retracement comes in at 1323, not so far from here.
ReplyDeleteJail time?
ReplyDeleteHey Mutt,
ReplyDeleteYou are a bit too far right leaning for my taste, but that's ok because you are a Mutt. Did they accept your paw print when you last voted?
Trader Mike, Macro-man etc. the market is waiting for earnings for Q2. We'll see if this will be sell-the-news!
ReplyDeleteTSX is closed Friday - Canada day.
ICan
@Mutt,
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect-
"Denise is Left-wing". ?????
ICan
It was a nice tongue in cheek article in the style of the onion.
ReplyDeleteJust a lot of ludicrous notions that are being passed off possible these days.
Just like Greece not being allowed to default. Been thinking about Greece. Still don't think it will be the catalyst. Something else will most likely trigger the next euro crisis. Not any of the majors. something minor like Slovenia.
My poor, poor TLT. That's ok though. This one is a longer termer. Will likely back up the truck and reload
ReplyDeletesub 90. Again.
ICan,
ReplyDeleteActually, I lean more toward the socialist end of things, but I don't like to be pigeon holed as a strict leftist.
I mostly despise Republican policies and hypocrisy more than anything. Little things like a few trillion spent on the wars, unfunded tax cuts for rich people, corporate welfare, class warfare designed to create more income inequality, and deregulation of the financial industry among others.
Of course, there were quite a few Democrats (DINO) who voted for some of these things, too.
Manny,
ReplyDeleteI still have the thought in the back of my mind that we might be in a giant trading range, like 1994, 2004, etc., where we back and fill for a while.
Not a prediction, but it would not surprise me if this happens. Of course, we will only know in hindsight that this was the case.
ReplyDeleteMarkets go up and down, and sideways, working off bullish or bearish extremes.
Adding to what I was talking with Thor about market crashes, there are two other conditions that can cause a crash, natural disaster and an event such as 9/11.
ReplyDelete@dss,
ReplyDelete"Trillions spent on wars"....
U.S. - richest, smartest people, most resources in the history of this planet.
Yet, a widowed grandmother may have to sell her home to receive healthcare?
Like you, I also believe people should be responsible for their own welfare. But those who can should also share with the less fortunate - via paying taxes and honouring their commitments - like big banks should not have been bailed out. You take risk - you'r responsible.
ICan
@Todd
ReplyDeleteI think you're right.
I'm thinking that Germany will bail out Greece, China and Germany will bail out Porutgal, Spain will be be bailed out depleting the IMF, and after that there may not be enough to bail out poor Italy.
But it could be another event entirely. Could be Vietnam declaring war against China.
Man oh man, wouldn't that be vindication?
Greece drama is not over.
ReplyDeleteJuly 15th is day when EU FMs and IMF will have to come up with money.
Autumn is another date.
May 2010 was when Greece was bailed with €120bn.
Now they are asking for €110bn.
March 2012 is when they'll have to come back to bond market to raise more cash.
Link -"Repeat of Greek deadline drama cannot be ruled out" - ft.com
ICan
Morning folks! Great post Dan, thank you, I had nothin' for today ;-)
ReplyDeleteICan,
ReplyDeletePeople get angry with me when I say that the terrorists already won, they have forced us into paying trillions and counting (much to war profiteers) to fight an organization that might have 500 people and no home country. We have sacrificed more than 4000 of our finest young people (destroying their families for life) and maimed 35,000 others. And Republicans fight over every penny spent on veteran's benefits.
We search a 95 year old woman's diaper, and fondle 6 year old girls, not to mention everyone else losing their dignity while trying to fly.
We finally got bin Laden after Bush decided that in 2002 "he just wasn't concerned about him anymore".
The richest most powerful country in the world will be paying for the WOT for the next 100 years.
ICan,
ReplyDeleteWe all know who benefited from the bank bailouts and it wasn't Ma and Pa Kettle.
Inflation heating up in Turkey I see. I'd so love to go back there and see how much has changed in the last five years. The whole country was a construction zone when we were there in 2006
ReplyDeleteRock - I don't think we're going to get as far as a bailout for Spain and Italy, I think there will be some restructuring and defaults before then. . . . eventually all of this has to implode right? I mean there's no possible way Greece or Ireland are ever going to be able to pay off that debt, the populations there are already starting to emigrate, combine the exodus of your young, working age citizens with a rapidly aging population . . .
ReplyDeleteEveryone have a great and safe holiday weekend!
ReplyDeleteI have a post scheduled to run tomorrow about how I find market bottoms and trend changes.
See everyone on Tuesday!
Emmy,
ReplyDeleteIf you feel like taking the weekend off, you could just let my post run for the weekend.
Of course, if you have something to all ready to go then just post that.
Fire ban here, no stand bought Fireworks for the kids this year. :(
ReplyDeleteStill , going to have Big Red ice-cream and Bar-B-Q.
Same thing goes for Manny, if you want to post on Monday feel free, otherwise, take the day off.
ReplyDeleteTodd,
ReplyDeleteWe have a nice family weekend planned, barbeque, beach, ice cream, and just relaxing. Unfortunately, the fire work freaks will be keeping us up all night long!
My parents are out in the country. The corn crop is more tinder than crop. Barely enough rain at the right / wrong time. Crop failure would have paid out more than what they are going to get since it managed to make.
ReplyDeleteJust glad the farming only has to cover the land loan payments and nothing else.
MN has received all of our rain this year.
What part of the country are they in? We in Illinois have had too much rain, too.
ReplyDeleteThat's too bad about your parents. Lots of bad luck with weather this year for farmers.
@dss
ReplyDeleteI'm fine with that.
Emmy,
ReplyDeleteThat's great. Nice long weekend! Enjoy.
Central Texas ,
ReplyDeleteDry and windy from the SW. La Nina isn't good for us. I really can't remember it being so windy in the summer.
Bye bye timmy.
ReplyDeleteRock - Did I miss something, is Timmy gone?
ReplyDeleteI just checked the bathroom and he wasn't there.
Mutt
Timmy cashing in and heading to Goldman? Would that really surprise anyone? Or head up the IMF?
ReplyDelete@Denise: that's kind if what I'm thinking. Giant trading range. TLT around sub 90 has been a good play like 3-4 times now since the stock market bottom hit in 09.
Almost back in mn. Hot and sticky 91. Wish we could have stayed up north. I may just take you up in that offer, denise. After all, it is summer! Will check in tomorrow. Back for one day work week. Like those. Lol.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteMy post for tomorrow is all ready to go and could just stay there until Dan posts his regular Tuesday. Long weekend for everyone. Hope you had a good time up there. It is supposed to be in the upper 90's tomorrow around here.
"People get angry with me when I say that the terrorists already won, they have forced us into paying trillions and counting (much to war profiteers) to fight an organization that might have 500 people and no home country. We have sacrificed more than 4000 of our finest young people (destroying their families for life) and maimed 35,000 others. And Republicans fight over every penny spent on veteran's benefits.
ReplyDeleteWe search a 95 year old woman's diaper, and fondle 6 year old girls, not to mention everyone else losing their dignity while trying to fly. "
Agree with most of that Denise. I often ask people the 'thought' question: "Could it be that there's just not 'that' many crazy people in the world who really want to kill us? Maybe that's one of the reasons there has been no terrorist events in the last decade here?"
It makes people uncomfortable. The "security theater" has gotten out of hand. Give me one CIA officer who knows how to question people at the metal detector...I'll take him over 50 TSA incompetents. He'd only have to ask the 90+ year old lady a few questions and she would have moved along ....
Andy,
ReplyDeleteIt has been in our government's best interest to intertwine the WOT with Iraq, when the real goal was to occupy Iraq so that we could keep Iran and the rest of the ME in it's place. Instead, we have inflamed the area to almost a point of no return.
I do not doubt that there have been joint intelligence efforts that have thwarted other attacks here, but Europe was not spared; those efforts could have been accomplished with out trillions spent in a ground war.
Pakistan takes billions in aid from us every year while laughing in our faces, harboring bin Laden and Al Qaeda. OBL hiding in plain sight.
No need to have one boot on the ground in Iraq for the CIA, black ops, or mercenaries to operate.
They want to kill us, no doubt about it, but being in Iraq is not the way to stop them.
I truly believe that OBL achieved exactly what he wanted to and was probably planning more; keep America spending money they don't have on the WOT, terrorize the US and world population with precision terror attacks, and destabilize the ME. Bankrupt the US! What's not to like?
Under those conditions, I believe that they have won.
What a long and torturous day. Smart man that I am, and as busy as I've been, I decided to volunteer for a new test group at work. I can divulge nothing other than it is kicking, my, ass. Six more brutal weeks to go. Hopefully I can talk about it soon because I'm really excited about it!
ReplyDeleteThis bears repeating
ReplyDeleteFmr. GOP Sen. Alan Simpson Calls Republican Refusal To Raise Revenue ‘Absolute Bullshit’ | Former GOP Sen. Alan Simpson blasted his intransigent GOP colleagues on the hill today for failing to reach a deal on the deficit. The expletive-prone co-chairman of President Obama’s bipartisan fiscal reform commission slammed Republicans for kowtowing to American for Tax Reform head Grover Norquist (“Republicans can’t be in thrall to him”) and pushed Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to stand fast on the August 2 deadline. Surveying the lay of the current fiscal land, Simpson said “We’re at 15 percent revenue, and historically it’s been closer to 20 percent.” “We’ve never had a war without a tax, and now we’ve got two,” he added. “Absolute bullshit.”
Geithner wants to leave in fall
ReplyDeleteGee, I wonder where he'll go.
@Thor
ReplyDeleteNot secret anymore. You just talked about it.
When I get back, I need to order one of those over-the-door bar thingies. Then maybe I can work up to get all the way through the warm-up.
I'm afraid it will be longer than 6 grueling weeks for me......
Can you tell us if you'll be on the video? That would be cool.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteWhere will he go?
Well let's see his resume:
"In-depth knowledge about bail-outs and how to structure an organization to receive the maximum benefit."
BofA? It's probably time for them to get more money.
One more thing: we all now know the timing for the next financial crisis. Who bets it's November again?.
"We never had a war without a tax."
ReplyDeleteThat was before we figured out the way to pay for this stuff without a tax: it's called "OPM".
Just devalue Bucky and let the world pay for the war. Shouldn't they pay anyway? Isn't the war protection for them? And haven't we paid enough with lives and dramatically changed futures (some would say reduced capability) for 35000+?
So I went to the bank to start the process to repatriate my S$ back to U$S.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.exchange-rates.org/history/SGD/USD/G
Wow. I can't believe it. I made so much money by coming here. This year, alone, 6%!!!
The bankster recommended that I leave it here and fly back if I need to repatriate it in person, but she said that because of the structure of HSBC accounts, I can move it from the US.
I'm not sure about the RMB stuff, tho, It comes up for renewal in July before I board the plane, so I'll go back and talk to the RMB guy then.
Let's see, Geithner leaves in the fall. That should be good for at least another 4%, wouldn't you say?
So my worthless son came to lunch today, saw the boxes around, labeled "don't pack this" and "for the luggage" and stuff, and asked which box is for his Ferrari.
ReplyDeleteNice timing. 2 working days before the packers show up.
I called my relo specialist at Santa Fe, and she fainted.