Odds and ends for Friday
An Awakening That Keeps Them Up All Night
"Until recently, young people in Spain were dismissed as an apathetic generation, uninterested in party politics. But the outpouring of young people who have taken to the streets since May 15 — at one point about 28,000 protesters spent the night in Madrid’s Puerta del Sol square — has changed all that, forcing the country to take heed and reconsider."
The slide show with the article is a good representation of what we saw when we went to the square just a few blocks from our hotel.
The plight of their young people mirrors our own struggles here with un and underemployment. The same story in Eqypt.
Why Spaniards Are Protesting, Arab Style
The youth-driven nature of this nascent movement and its determination to overthrow a traditional political model have led many to see it as an extension of the Arab Spring across the Mediterranean. But given that Spain is a democracy with a Socialist government, a more apt comparison might be with Iceland, whose people have rejected, via referendums, paying compensation to other nations following a financial collapse.
Not everyone is buying gold...
Gold Dealers Provide Needed Cash In Struggling Spain
"The other effect of gold's high price became evident as hundreds of gold dealers sprung up around the country, relieving Spaniards of unwanted jewelry and trinkets as their country was buffeted by economic downturn and a sovereign debt crisis."
Morning all. Looks like another .5% move is in the offering.
ReplyDeleteRelief rally was anemic and could not hold into the close. We are about to break out to new lows, next stop 1250.00
ReplyDeletePhony "relief rally". Manny sniffed that one out. Lol. Where's support now?
ReplyDeleteYou got that one right my friend.
ReplyDeleteNow if you can just tell me the winning numbers for the Lotto and life will be perfect.
I am surprised the comments are subdued today.
Normally be this time, there are more comments and escially when there is a down day and so far this is a pretty big down day.
Mutt
Morning folks!
ReplyDeleteMutt - Remember, Rock is out of town today. :-)
Late start for me too!
1260 is the next big support line.
ReplyDeleteGood call to.. everyone who called it! (sry can't follow comments thoroughly these days).
ReplyDeletedamn, look at it go. Anyone keeping track of how far we've corrected this time around?
ReplyDeleteHard times fellow traders huh?. Well. Always a hard time anyway.
ReplyDelete/*****About volume******/
I'm only following one stock thoroughly these days,ticker is ALU. No big volume on this wave of selling. Therefore no panic sell off yet.
I believe it's the same for the whole French stocks.
Finally, Bloomberg suggest poor volume on the US / European markets in general:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-10/volume-drop-shows-stocks-bottoming-out-arihant-capital-says.html
"Volumes drying up (...end of relevant part...) is an indication that the markets are bottoming out. (...says who ? ...)"
:p
Wolfie - it is summer trading though . . .
ReplyDeleteRegarding volumes, I believe it's good to keep in mind that low volumes in the selling doesn't imply that we're not going down further.
ReplyDeleteJust remember the previous leg down..
I believe the relevant part of the info here is just that big money hasn't thrown the towel yet. Therefore still "hopes" of a bounce.
@Thor: "Wolfie - it is summer trading though . . ."
ReplyDelete... and a developed nation can never default. ever.
:p
Half Kidding. Seriously, I'm fairly confident in hypothesizing that big money must be on "high security" mode right now. Will be a long summer working under stress as long as there's no definite plan for some hot stuff (Greece and Syria come to mind).
ReplyDeleteI'm not basing this on expertise. "Common sense" mainly.:)
Wolfie - I agree actually, I think most of the big money is sitting this one out for now.
ReplyDelete@Thor: I don't think no big fund manager (nor his team) have ruled this one out.
ReplyDeleteNot that I'm actually talking about private investor taking losses on Greece default or restructuring (doesn't matter how you call it, despite what the expert and official clowns are currently debating all over the MSM).
And from today's Captain Obvious file. Hey, Paul, welcome to the club. Kind of bizarre that you're just now finally catching up, but welcome nevertheless. And, yes, it's definitely "conscious". From today's column:
ReplyDelete"What lies behind this trans-Atlantic policy paralysis? I’m increasingly convinced that it’s a response to interest-group pressure. Consciously or not, policy makers are catering almost exclusively to the interests of rentiers — those who derive lots of income from assets, who lent large sums of money in the past, often unwisely, but are now being protected from loss at everyone else’s expense."
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/10/opinion/10krugman.html?_r=1&hp
AND this is just one of the problems. I believe "black swan" is half correct to describe current situation. "half" because it feels like it's possible, but rational minds won't accept it.
ReplyDeleteAnyway. These were just my 2 cents.
ReplyDeleteAs you're well aware, I'm not claiming any expertise or skills in this whole finance/economics business.
Wolfie - True, and we should remember that all the governments in the world aren't going to simply sit back and allow things to unravel if they can help it. Look at the things being doing in the EU as an example. . . .Just a matter of whether or not, or for how long, and sort of "fix" is going to work this time around. Seems like each time we try we're faced with diminishing results!
ReplyDeleteGotta go. Have fun all:D.
ReplyDelete(and don't forget to get out of your shorts if they're wet...
ahah..
ok)
@Thor, 12:29PM: ".Just a matter of whether or not, or for how long, and sort of "fix" is going to work this time around. Seems like each time we try we're faced with diminishing results!".
ReplyDeleteGood observation, I think.
@Thor: True, but "solve" one problem or more and create several more. The human mind constantly deceives itself into thinking we have more "control" than we really do, and this is especially true of those in charge who have arrogance and hubris overflowing out of every pore of their bodies.
ReplyDeleteExports in China slowing down as well - not just us slowing down it appears.
ReplyDeleteNew 52-week low for HPQ. That one looks WEAK. Wonder if too late to short though?
ReplyDeleteTHIS is astounding:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/las-vegas-lands-sells-for-15-percent-of.html
This article about the ill-fated Gingrich campaign says it all. It's all about money and attention and selling books, just like Palin. What a craven douchebag this man is...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/10/us/politics/10gingrich.html?emc=eta1
Here are some that have made no mortgage or rent payments in OVER 5 years!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/meet-squatters-here-are-millions-americans-who-live-mortgage-free-5-years-and-counting
Vote Newt in 2012
ReplyDeleteMutt
Manny - one of my neighbors went three years without being foreclosed upon on a condo she had down in San Diego.
ReplyDeleteNice post, by the way, Denise. Nearly 50% of Spain's 30-year olds still living with parents? Wow, that will put a dent on family formation and population (and economic) growth of a nation.
ReplyDeleteThis quote says it all:
ReplyDelete“We call 32- and 35-year-olds young people in Spain, because they are forced to live like children,” she said. “Thirty-year-olds should have their own homes.”
Is this a trend that's coming, or already arrived, in the U.S?
let's see if we get down 200 again today
ReplyDeleteMannwich - The question that comes to my mind with these forclousers (Or lack there of) is are these people paying their taxes?
ReplyDeleteTo me insurance is a no-brainer, I would not pay it, if the house is insured and it burns down, I would not see a penny of it anyway, so why pay and if it did burn down, what is the bank going to do, force me to pay?
But the taxes would see to be crucial, the county likes it's taxes.
Just wondering.
Mutt
Thor - It looks like you just might get your 200 points down today....Just a few minutes left and 30 points is what you need.
ReplyDeleteMutt
@Mutt: Great question. If most of them were paying taxes and insurance via escrow like many do it, I doubt they've been paying either but maybe some are still paying? I highly doubt it, although maybe they are paying the tax man to keep him away?
ReplyDeletePretty damn weak close. That's 6 consecutive weeks down now. I honestly think we get even more of a downleg and then comes the justification for more QE or some other banker-rentier-friendly cat that Benny attempts to pull out of his hat.
ReplyDeleteMannwich (4:07) - That is the game plan I am going with, although I am not sure they can actually pull off more QE.
ReplyDeleteI think they will use the market decline as an exuse to push the Debt Ceiling up - This market will continue to go down, until the R's unite around a campfire singing Kumbi Ya and agree to raise the Debt Ceiling, the next day...Maybe two after that the market jumps up over 300 points.
And all the bad things will be swept under the carpet again until it is time for the elections.
Thats my two pennies.
Mutt
Mannwich - traditionally home ownership is around 67% (Don't quote me on that) but during the mid 2000's homeownership reached something like 72%.
ReplyDeleteYou also know that good paying jobs are few and far between and the jobs that are hiring are doing so at lower wages and less benefits.
College graduates are coming out of school with huge debt and little chance of finding decent jobs.
No job no money, no money no way to buy a house add the student loan debt ratio on top of that and the price and size of the house goes down (If interest rates go up even a little bit, things get even worser)
In my opinion we have entered a very unique period in our history, where home ownership will continue to decline and the McManssions are a thing of the past.
I know many here may disagree with my thinking, but if I had not wife and children, I would seriously consider moving into one of the MANY vacant houses around here.
I would get the utilities hooked up in my name (As long as I pay the deposit, they wont ask if I have a right to be there) And I would send in the tax payments in on my name.
If no one disputes my right to be there and the taxes are paid in 5 years the house effectively becomes mine.
If someone does dispute it and I am forced to move out...Oh well.....
Mutt
Been out all day with meetings. Had a nice lunch, though.
ReplyDeletePretty rough day in the markets, that weak rally yesterday from extremely oversold conditions was the tell, plus we did not close on the highs.
Also another tell, no buying at night, no buying from Europe, or Asia as is usual when we are in rally mode.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteLook for little to be done to help the economy from here until the election.
GOP doesn't want to do anything, from stimulus, to helping the unemployed or creating jobs because it will make Obama look good and electable.
Anything that the GOP can do to make Obama look bad and stall the recovery from not raising the debt ceiling to no QE3 is going to be their objective.
ReplyDeleteElizabeth Warren can go suck an egg! Obama will have to make her a recess appointment if he has enough guts, which I doubt. Don't want to anger those Republicans.
Gingrich was indeed faking being a candidate, and now he can ask high speaking fees and still be a contributor to Fox News.
ReplyDeleteI think that is why Huckabee decided not to run, too much money was being handed to him as a "personality".
Palin doesn't care one way or another, being President would be boring compared to her current life of paid appearances, bus travel. She is raking in the dough, being president would crimp her style as she would actually have to work.
ReplyDeleteTechnically, the market broke it's long term trendline from 2009. Next stop 1250
ReplyDelete@Manny & Mutt, 4:07 & 4:48PM, re markets and QE:
ReplyDeleteAgree with your points.
That QE thingie is quite a weird beast, ain't it?
re @Mutt:"That is the game plan I am going with, although I am not sure they can actually pull off more QE.
ReplyDeleteI think they will use the market decline as an exuse to push the Debt Ceiling up"
I don't if that's intentional on your part, but it's interesting that you're describing US Debt and QEs as basically 2 alternatives for the same goal. Reminds me of what this guy said:
"The true purpose of QE 2 is to disguise the decreasing ability of the Treasury to finance its debts."
http://www.businessinsider.com/bernanke-qe2-titanic-2010-10#ixzz1OujxoDab
Probably over simplified, but there's at least some truth in it.
@Denise: 1250 is the mark on my book, too. We've got a critical up trendline here.
ReplyDeleteI would not want this support broken. Probably others at there neither!
Finally - let's see if this does any good though.
ReplyDeletePolitical earthquake roils California delegation
A redistricting panel has demolished California’s exquisitely gerrymandered congressional map, ushering in the prospect of a massive turnover in the state’s delegation and imperiling the careers of some of Capitol Hill’s most powerful pols.
The Citizens Redistricting Commission, a bipartisan 14-member group composed largely of political neophytes, unveiled the first draft of the state’s congressional blueprint Friday, ending an era of unparalleled stability for a 53-member delegation that has seen remarkably little turnover over the last decade.
The plan marks a dramatic transformation in the state’s congressional landscape, and will create electoral troubles for members of both parties. GOP Rep. Gary Miller, a veteran congressmen from Orange County, is drawn into a Democratic-leaning district; while 77-year-old Republican Rep. Elton Gallegly finds himself in the same seat as Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon. Both appear to have limited political options.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/56703.html#ixzz1OultuDhU
re my observation 6:22PM: note that I'm not targeting the US in particular. Sadly, debt is the "Achilles heels" of Europe too...
ReplyDeleteAlright. Getting late here. Gotta go pay back some of the "sleeping" debt to my body.
ReplyDeleteHave a good weekend all!
Thor,
ReplyDeleteWe just did the same thing here in the Chicago area, my conservative county just got redistricted into Chicago. Not sure of the outcome of that one as they are going to have to face a court challenge.
Wolfie,
ReplyDeleteAs I just read and agree with, the first bounce off of a long term trend line is good, the second one not so much.
It feels like a mini 2008 where the buying has just gone away.
Denise - ah yes, court challenges. Our new redistricting was done with new rules put in place by voters here in November so no court challenges that I'm aware of.
ReplyDeleteDenise - Who has money to do any serious buying with?
ReplyDeleteFew jobs, less 401k money, it is doubtful the general public is interested in or capable of buying stocks right now.
And I would venture to guess with all the "Free" money QE allowed there are tons of "Pros" who are over leveraged.
No Money No Buy Stuff.
But hey Ben Bernanke has our backs.
Mangy Mutt
Mutt,
ReplyDeleteThe great unwashed here in America don't have much extra but the group at the top of the pyramid has more than enough to make up for it.
Same in Europe, Asia and South America where most of the wealth is concentrated in the top 10% or less of the population.
Not to mention sovereign wealth funds. There is plenty of money at the top!