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Thursday, June 16, 2011

Came across a rather vicious piece of tripe a couple of weeks ago, an article written by the illustrious Amity Shlaes, more of her tireless campaign to discredit FDR and the New Deal. History has always been one of my passions, specifically Depression through Kennedy US history as these were the periods my grandparents lived through and I had heard stories of these times from a very early age. Talking runs in my family (surprise surprise) so I had, what I consider, one of the best first hand education in an important period in American History.

Amity's beef with FDR and The New Deal fascinated me because I had never heard or read anyone making her claims that he actually made the Depression worse. My grandparents, both lifelong Republicans, adored Roosevelt. I once asked them why they were such fans when they never voted Democrat. Their answer was "because he was for the people". Say what you will about Roosevelt and his policies, he was a man loved by the people of the nation he ruled.

To focused so narrowly on such a minuscule portion of what this man represented to this nation in BOTH The Depression and World War II, is, in my opinion, a glimpse into the soul of people like Amity and the psychopaths she is an apologist for. They see everything in terms of money. They hate Roosevelt because people like them lost money when he was president, he took the money they had raped from the nation and the world and gave a great deal of it back to the people who had broken their backs for generations for that money. They hate Roosevelt because he took that money and gave it to starving old women.

So without further adieu, I present a very good take-down of the whole "The New Deal made The Depression Worse" meme. It's long, but I highly recommend it as it is very useful for easily punching holes in the arguments or our less enlightened "Libertarian Leaning" brothers and sisters.


FDR's Latest Critics
Was the New Deal un-American?


So on the numbers, the U.S. economy improved briskly during the New Deal. Things that are moving quickly and in the right direction, but still haven't reached their destination after a while, are things that have a long way to go—which is true of the U.S. economy recovering from 1932. Historians disagree on which part of the New Deal most encouraged economic growth, but at the least the New Deal did not prevent this recovery.

Shlaes makes a different argument about numbers, because she uses different numbers. She starts each chapter with a rat-a-tat of just-the-facts, but instead of GDP, which represents the overall economy, she quotes the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which represents the maybe 10 percent of Americans who owned stock. And though she quotes an unemployment number, she doesn't quote the figures I've just mentioned. Instead she chooses different estimates of unemployment that (she acknowledges) show a much larger share of Americans out of work during the New Deal.

If you want to know how the New Deal treated ordinary Americans, this choice really matters. Let's look at a figure Shlaes gives twice in her book and again in her Wall Street Journal editorial: She has unemployment at 20 percent in the 1937-38 recession. That's appalling—almost as bad as 23 percent in 1932. Based on such a statistic, you could think the New Deal wasn't alleviating the Great Depression. But that number hides something: A third of the people Shlaes counts as unemployed had a job that the New Deal gave them through its relief programs.

68 comments:

  1. @Thor:

    good start to a great day! (every day is great that I wake up....the day I don't will be a bad day for sure).

    I think the measure of a great leader is someone who can surround himself with the best talent available, and use that talent to make the sum greater than the parts. The best leaders know and realize they are only the leader, and that the team actaully makes the plays happen.

    Roosevelt had the a great team. He even got Annie and Daddy Warbucks.

    Obama's team has fallen apart. It has either walked off the field or got sent to the showers.

    The only one left in Obama's starting lineup is Hillary. And I think that was a deal cooked up before the convention, but that's just my thoughts.

    anyway, Obama has not gotten the best team, and has not fostered an environment where teamwork matters. History will tell, but I really doubt Obama will hold a candle to Roosevelt's successes.

    It's sad, because we really need a team player now.

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  2. @Mutt

    Thanks for the info. I'll look into it further, because last time in the US i tried to get college games, I had to subscribe to satellite TV plus cable and get the highest-cost on both. I think it was to run about 600 per month total.

    crazy.

    @Thor:
    Sorry, no Barney app. The lowest I will go is Teletubbies.

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  3. @Emmanuel

    Oh, I so hope you added or started a short in RIMM on the pop this AM.....

    Of course, I don't ever know what I'm talking about.....

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  4. Riots in Vancouver after the Stanley Cup final game lost to Boston.

    Also, BOC Gov. Carney was in Vancouver yesterday, basically warning speculators to 'cool down'.

    "Will Vancouver housing market go the way of the Canucks" - financialpost.com

    Hongkong, Sydney, Vancouver all red hot markets.

    And Condos in Toronto.

    ICan

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  5. If Cdn housing market does flop, then Cdn banks are good shorts.

    But do your own due diligence. Because there are so many undercurrents, how know when the market will go down.

    If Chinese market flopps then more money may come to Canada.

    ICan

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  6. @ICan

    Go Bruins!

    (I kinda have a long-standing affinity for the Bruins, the Patriots, the Red Sox, and the Beavers.)

    (so who are the Beavers, anyway?)

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  7. Rock - Being from WA state, we always had the WSU Cougars or the UW Huskies for football rivalry and Oregon has the Beavers and Ducks and all 4 teams play each other so there can be some pretty good games, but about 4-5 years ago, I discovered Boise State.

    A smallish team in the middle of a state no one hears about, but boy howdy what a power house they are and made a VERY legitimate run for Nation Champions last year - But can you see their games consitantly on tv - NO!!!!

    I believe part of the problem you run into with college football is many teams are only marketed to their area, so even if you are in driving distance, you still may be out of tv coverage.

    Boise State will air their games within Boise and I know several Boise State fans who can get games through the internet. I am not sure how a College Foot ball app could be written through Plex and it would seem it needs to be very specifically written

    Hmmm Now you have a choice write that Barny the Purple Dinosour app or the College Football app.


    Mutt

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  8. Ican - "riots in Vancouver" was one of the first things that popped up this morning and I thought WHooooooaaaaa Did I sleep through that - Then it said the Canucks!!!

    Ok good it was the crazy Canadians in the other Vancouver that were rioting

    What a bunch of hoosers, ehe....

    Mangy Mutt

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  9. @Mutt

    Nope, you're wrong.

    Here's the 1988 link:
    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1988-09-18/sports/8801310556_1_college-football-division-iii-beavers

    When I went, the participation was 17 people. It was really sad. My last team first day practice had 240 people of which over 80 were walk-ons.

    But it's still a warm place in my heart.

    And I guess I have to write an app for teletubbies. (actually, I have no idea what I'm talking about, again)

    Remember, be kind to animals. Kiss a beaver.

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  10. Ooh, Mannwich, you gotta love our RIMM short!

    I took a nibble on SKF. There was a guy on Bloomberg who said the banks are really cheap, credit is getting better.

    I wonder if he's looked at how much banks are into PIIGS sovereign debt.

    We'll see what happens on that SKF nibble.

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  11. The Way it Should Be PlayedJune 16, 2011 at 11:23 AM

    Rock - I read the above article and that is the way college football should be played.

    Studying and grades first, having a good time with people 2nd and the actual game 3rd.

    Mutt

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  12. Rock, when do you find out if you get to come home? Hope you don't have to wait too long, summer is starting!

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  13. Loving RIMM, Rock. You da man, no, da Rock. And I'm da Mann. Loving the Bruins victory last night too. That's 7 titles for the pro teams back there in 10 years. Could have been 3-5 more with a little luck too. An embarrassment of riches.

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  14. Ever wonder what happened to "Balloon Boy" Dad Richard Heene, the pride of Fort Collins, CO? Well, wonder now more. Watch this video to the end.

    http://weirdnews.aol.com/2011/06/15/balloon-boy-dad-richard-heene-transformer_n_877705.html

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  15. Manny - I did actually! Watching now. . .

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  16. It actually looks like a pretty cool little invention. I give him credit for that but the video is just hilarious.

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  17. Stephen Roach now in the "U.S. is Japan" camp. Welcome to our club (or should I say "MY" club) Stephen!

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/stephen-roach-america-is-a-zombie-nation-just-like-japan.html

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  18. Your move, Benny:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/philly-fed-survey-regional.html

    Heckuva a job, O-man. What a weak "leader". Opportunity of a lifetime to be transformative but apparently prefers to be in "the club", so he chose to cast his lot with the same horribles that got us to this point. He chose unwisely.

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  19. Does this surprise anyone knowing what we know now about the Bush admin?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/16/us/politics/16cole.html?_r=1&hp

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  20. Weakening again. I'm still having a hard time justifying just how we go higher. Every rally now being sold.

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  21. Although I would argue that in many respects we're in WORSE shape than Japan.

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  22. Pandora.

    Dang!


    ICan

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  23. "Santander Chairman in tax probe" -ft.com

    Emilio Botin and family under investigation

    ICan

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  24. I don't know if this is just propaganda or has some shade of truth to this - look at the source.

    "Corrupt officials took $124 billion out of China". Central banks report says U.S. was main destination for exiles.

    Exiles.

    Who are the people coming to Vancouver and Sydney? It's usually Hong Kong, then to the rest of the world.

    ICan

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  25. Holy crap. My little VXX play going bonkers the last two days.

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  26. Bears are in firm control as of late (sorry for being Mr. Obvious).

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  27. S&P 500 EMA(200) 1262, MA(200)1257.

    Dog days of summer.

    ICan

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  28. And back to negative we go. . .

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  29. Glad to see Pandora doing to poorly. Gives me hope for Groupon and some of the other nonsense IPO's coming down the pike.

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  30. Algos - 1262 is some magnet.


    ICan

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  31. @Mannwich:

    I'm taking my profits on RIMM. It will report earnings tonite. It's my policy to not be in the stock when it reports, because a good report can make a stock pop up or down, and a bad report can make a stock pop down or up. No telling.

    After the report, I'll look to see if AAPL is still trying to put it out of business or not.

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  32. Good thoughts, Rock. Appreciate the heads up.

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  33. LNKD at 69.51. Looking mighty weak. Regret not shorting it in the 100's but I thought maybe it would stay levitated for longer than this. Too bad.

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  34. @Mannwich:

    I looked into shorting LNKD. I tried a market order, and the system wouldn't let me. So I skyped a human there, and he told me that they didn't have the shares available for me to borrow, and that if they did, to borrow them would be expensive for me. I asked how the system would have told me that it would be expensive, and he said that the system won't show it, but they have a policy that if the shares are expensive to borrow, they just won't let the online system short them, and the trader has to call them up when they will inform the trader about the details.

    I like TD Ameritrade.

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  35. @Thor
    Things move slowly. I should know in a month or two at the outside.

    My son may have to sell his ferrari because he's here on a dependent pass, and unless he becomes a citizen, he can't stay.

    Too bad, so sad. His dad.

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  36. What kind of penalty is this?

    A TD Waterhouse brokers stole $1.4 million from a widowed client and is only fined $1 million?

    The penal said they didn't have the authority above that? He gets to Keep the rest.

    "Ex broker fined $1 million in theft from widowed client" -theglobeandmail.com

    ICan

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  37. We haven't breached the 200 day MA yet.

    We've bounced off a couple of times.

    3rd times' a charm? As Dastro says, "will see". Frankly, I don't expect to fall below the 200 day MA tonite because the plunger team can operate and keep it up for tomorrow's open. That's my bet.

    "will see".

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  38. @ICan

    Yep, you gotta watch out for those tall, handsome ex-football players, for sure. I wouldn't trust one as far as I could throw him.

    Anyway, seems a civil suit could be brought now.

    Actually, TDA has this program where they will find a "TDA-approved" financial advisor for you to work with. Before my assignment here, I interviewed a couple, and chose to continue on my own.

    In the US, that poor little old lady can file a civil suit and get him for (I think) 3X penalty. Unless he's doing more than her account, of course.

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  39. Good evening all. Been busy today traveling, talking with painters and shopping. I have not looked at anything market wise.

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  40. Thor,

    The insane right is doing everything they can to discredit FDR and The New Deal.

    Which is also why very little work will get done until the elections. They want to make sure that no legislation passes that gives Obama one scintilla of an edge before November 2012, and will do everything to discredit what things he has done (sigh).

    At least Weiner is gone. But the diaper wearing, prostitute visiting U.S. Senator David Vitter (R-Pampers) of Louisiana is still in office.

    Senator Vitter's Diaper Fetish

    If the Republican leadership didn't force Vitter out, I don't see how they could hypocritically criticize Weiner.

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  41. Thor,

    Busy day, but not much accomplished. They are finally painting and staining the windows we put in late last fall... Talk about procrastinating.

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  42. It is a nice evening to sit on the deck, have a cocktail and watch the world go by.

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  43. Thor,

    I will be able to do my post for tomorrow.

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  44. Rock - Yesterday you said that cable boxes use a lot of energy even when they are "Off"

    And I had several questions for you about that.

    Ok a Cable box and a Direct tv or Dish box are all counted as the same; A Cable Box.

    They on average use 1/2 the energy as a refrigerator.

    And they use 2/3 of their power while "off"

    Just thought you might like to know.

    Mangy Mutt

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  45. @Rock: Looks like RIMM getting RIPPPED after hours. Looks like you and I got out a little too soon?

    •RESEARCH IN MOTION SEES 2Q REVENUE $4.2B-$4.8B, EST $5.47B
    •RESEARCH IN MOTION 1Q REVENUE $4.91B, EST. $5.15B
    •RESEARCH IN MOTION SEES 2Q ADJ. EPS 75C-$1.05, EST $1.40
    •RIM SEES YEAR OPER EPS $5.25-$6.00, HAD SEEN $7.50; EST. $6.24
    •RIM SEES 2Q GROSS MARGIN 39% VS EST. 41.5%
    •RIM CUTS YEAR FORECAST, SETS BUYBACK, JOB CUT PLAN

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  46. Hit $29.75 at one point after-hours. Yikes. I gotta learn to stay with my winners longer. Tough to do with shorts though, as you never know when you might get squeezed.

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  47. "Came across a rather vicious piece of tripe a couple of weeks ago, an article written by the illustrious Amity Shlaes..."

    It might be cool, for your readership, to provide a link to the article which is the subject of the thread. Also, it might be interesting to understand, from your point of view, what exactly makes the article a "vicious piece of tripe."

    Just offering some worthless and unsolicited editorial advice. Peace. -AT.

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  48. Manny, you can never go wrong not holding thru earnings. It can rip your face off sometimes.

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  49. Manny,

    You did well! Don't second guess yourself.

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  50. And don't forget that the average person NEVER gets that $29.75 price.

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  51. I just heard a news piece on NPR on my way home tonight. The Treasury is in talks with Wall street to set up a public/private "Infrastructure Bank". The Government and Wall street will both loan money to municipalities and states to build large infrastructure projects.

    Is this a joke?????

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  52. Manny that's really good! Don't second guess yourself like that buddy, you got a good profit! So what if you could have gotten a little more, it's a whole lot better than a big loss right? :-)

    Congratulations!

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  53. That's what I was thinking too, greg. They'll be another chance with RIMM or another stock. Just gotta play small and be happy with that. I got burned before holding my shorts for too long and got my face ripped off. A winner's a winner.

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  54. @Thor: Probably not a joke, although the "joke's" on us, as I'm sure they'll find a way to fleece all of us in the process. Same old same old.

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  55. Pretty amazing stuff from Lawrence Wilkerson, former Colin Powell Chief of Staff, especially his claim that he's "not sure his daughter will be living within a democratic republic within 10-20 years". Watch the entire 8 minute clip if you can. He seems to be saying that we've crossed the Rubicon and there's no turning back now.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/a-security-and-finance-state-that-dominates-the-american-people.html

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  56. This is just awesome. I wonder why, diaper-wearing, law breaking Vitter wasn't asked to resign though? Maybe because the GOP never cedes anything EVER while the Dems are constantly throwing anything and anyone under the bus when it suits them politically? Soulless spineless wimps. And I'm not defending Weiner but just wonder why the double standard.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/the-debate-is-anthony-weiner-an-asshole-20110616

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  57. Yes - do watch it till the end if you can. Manny, that last question. Very telling. Obama is complicit.

    There is no difference whatsoever between B and O. Suits put in place by The Powers That Be. Bush was "US Captured President" beta. Obama is the final release. The height of this model has been increased, the color darkened (bot not TOO dark) to appeal to the left, the speech has most dramatically been improved.

    Ugh

    Ugh

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  58. @Mannwich

    Sorry. Yes, we coulda stayed longer. That would have made St Jude's a little happier.

    But, on a far happier note, several weeks ago I commented, I think after the Adam-and-Eve on ANF and my face was ripped off, that maybe we should get out overnight, as well as earnings.

    So I tried it. Since that day, I have not had a red day yet. My 3 week percentage has doubled. Granted, I've had a couple of anemic days, like $74 and $32, but looking at the acount, it's up 22%. In like 8 weeks. And a few days out on sojurns.

    So I'm glad you're out. You may want to take a look at the totally oversold on RIMM, see the action in the AM, and decide to play long. Actually, I exited my short just before I posted, and played long the last hour of trading and did good.

    Any profit is good. Take it away from the machines.

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  59. @Dss:

    It's good they waited several months to stain and paint.

    These days, they harvest the wood, dry it for a short time in log format, mill it and make stuff. The result is lower cost, but the wood is not ready. Wood should be dried for at least a year before it is finished.

    So your windows will be dryer, the primer won't have to fight as much moisture, the stain will penetrate further, and you will end up with a longer-lasting more beautiful finish.

    Sometimes it's good to wait.

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  60. Fascism Pure And SimpleJune 17, 2011 at 12:31 AM

    Thor (10:06) - I serciously doubt there is any joking going on with that story, for the past 30ish years we have been building a fascist nation and TARP and QEing only put us more solidly in that state.

    Now they are just taking the veil off and letting us see the beast.

    The Fed is Big Banks, our law makers are bought and paid for by the big banks.

    The Federal government wants to control state and local government, what better way to do it.

    Rock - Are you SURE you want to move back here?

    Mutt

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  61. Rock - Sometimes they will kiln dry the wood to speed up the drying (Aging) process, but 100% agreement with you, you want your wood to be stable before working with it.

    Mutt

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  62. Rock and Mutt - I did not know that! That's good info to have too, everything we ever get from Home Depot is actually wet it's so fresh sometimes. Those damn thing warp here in the heat before they dry if you're not careful.

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  63. Thor - Someday, I may tell you a story about undried (Wet or Green) lumber a story that taught me...Well actually gave me life for the first time.

    Mutt.

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  64. Mutt - I love your stories, please do :-)

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  65. Rock is a great story teller too!

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