Hello everybody.
Still couldn't finish running all the tests that I wanted to with the stocks, as I promised. Is going to be another week.
I finished a database of 300 stocks and I had loaded manually (there's no other way) 6,500 datapoints that I need it.Very tedious work the last 3 weeks but will allowed me to check whatever theory I decide to entertained and test it pretty fast compared to the the way I do it regularly.
In the meantime I'll keep an eye in all the stocks that I mentioned (the bullish and the bearish ones).
Glad to see that for the past month and something, the first week of May was clearly the line in the sand as I thought.
I don't mean that is a "definitive" top or anything but 5 or 6 weeks (at least) doing what I was expecting from an astrological point of view is more than encouraging to me.
I have to check the indexes too to see what comes next with them.So much work so little time, oh well.
Next week I can be more precise about the stocks that I already mentioned using the new data.
Cheers
Dan
@Dastro:
ReplyDeleteWow, what a lot of great work! I only have a couple hundred, and I only look at the channel trend and for channel violation.
I'm so looking forward to your research. This week my post will be going through the herds to find the weakest and strongest performers during this downtrend. As input for those of us who may want to short now, under the assumption the downtrend continues (not likely) or go long on the turnaround.
And, there will be a turnaround. The Plunger team, the USG, the EU, is going to make it happen.
So I can't wait for your insight!
So my SKF long and C short will hurt today. This has all the earmarks of a Turnaround Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteI will be sure to be out tonite. No way will I get caught again holding SKF when the government can say what every they want to pork me. Whoever said this should be fair? To the winners go the spoils!
BB speaks today. Looks like TT.
ReplyDeleteICan
Dan,
ReplyDeleteThe hardest work is compiling data bases! I have kept spread sheets for years and in the end the hard work pays off.
Good luck and we hope to see your results soon.
Sorry can't pop up much these days. So much for my 1294 line from yesterday then..
ReplyDeleteTakes a man to cling to your long here!
Let's wait for that little pop then.. :D
My shorts are hurting less....
ReplyDeleteI'll use less starch......
Edit: my post @ 9:27AM : "Takes a man OR A WOMAN to cling to your long here!"Yeah .. there ARE reckless women too :D (*glimpses at Denise* ;) )
ReplyDelete@Rock: Sorry 'bout your shorts mate! I would like to hope you good luck on that one, but I'm on the other side of the trade (virtually that is). :D
ReplyDelete(virtually) Opened a small long position yesterday, in ALU (French stock in Communication Equipment , not that the sector really matters to me..)
From Reuters.com
ReplyDelete"China official says U.S. could pursue week dollar policy". But no basis for Yuan to appreciate.
"Breif: Moody's reviews Sino-Forest ratings for possible downgrade".
Rating agencies!
ICan
Wolfie,
ReplyDeleteYes, I am a reckless long here. Reckless is my middle name!
Just got long this morning (ES) and I have a tight stop in case of Armageddon.
ReplyDeleteLoving this bounce. So want to get short C and BAC. Already took a nibble on the RIMM short side and will continue to add to it over time as long as I have the liquidity to do so. Am in Rock's camp that Apple is pounding them into submission but it could be a long slow downward for RIMM into the abyss.
ReplyDeleteWe need to see a vault over last night's highs of 1293.75 and then yesterday's highs of 1298.25 before I would call this a rally. The internals have set up, but failure from these levels is always an option.
ReplyDeleteFrom financialpost.com
ReplyDelete"Fed officials say economic data disappointing".
Eric Rosengren on CNBC.
"Speculative overhang leaves oil on knife-edge".
Depends on U$D's direction.
ICan
We did not fill the gap from yesterday but we did fall back to the last hour's high.
ReplyDeleteTo be clear, I am not calling for a new leg up but a relief/short covering rally. Daily and weekly internals are too weak to support a ginormous rally from here. But it is one day at a time. A move to test or best the new lows set yesterday would not surprise me, either.
ReplyDeleteIs this bullish? I continue to maintain that housing AND unemployment continue to be the giant elephants in the room that too many are ignoring at their (and our) peril.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/report-109-million-us-properties-with.html
This is really good. Think he nails it (quite sadly).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/lifting-the-veil.html
Morning all!
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteGood read, prophetic.
Thought I'd share this with you. Was in Toronto over the weekend and went to the Bay store in Pickering Town Centre to buy a shirt. The first floor which has the mens wear department is probably somewhere around 20,000 square feet, and it was basically deserted. Picked a shirt and went to pay for it and couldn't find a sales clerk anywhere. It was like one of those scenes from a movie where you find yourself in downtown Manhattan and no one is there. It was surreal. Finally saw a notice in the mens wear department to take your purchases to the linen section. Went to linens, and there was one clerk. One. 20,000 square feet.
ReplyDeleteNext day I was in the Apple store in Eaton Centre, downtown Toronto, which would be approx. 2,000 to 2,500 square feet. Store was packed and I counted 35 sales clerks. That's how you do retail.
Watch the video if you can.
ReplyDeleteManny - that NC article was excellent! Have you watched the documentary that was attached to it?
ReplyDeleteGreg - sounds like a lot of the department stores here!
Mark Ames was Taibbi's co-editor of The Exile.
ReplyDeleteLost Exile
greg,
ReplyDeleteSame thing at our upscale mall, vast empty cavern department store, and the Apple store looks like a bee hive. No one cares about clothes anymore, but everyone wants to at least see and touch the latest from Apple.
That's right, Denise. But Taibbi and Ames had a falling out, I believe.
ReplyDeleteSpanish municiple debt.
ReplyDelete'Bankrupt' claim heighten Spanish debt fears - FT.Com
Spain's 17 autonomous regions and more than 8000 municipalities have $220bn debt among them.
When in doubt, borrow more.
ICan
"Dissent lands Chinese blogger in labour camp"-FT.Com.
ReplyDeletePolitical joke aimed at an ambitious Communist Party chief.
ICan
C turned negative again.
ReplyDeleteI watched the video, Thor. Check it out. Not much new for us but still pretty good.
ReplyDeleteHeard a good piece on NPR this morning that really stuck out for me. A report on Kazakhstan and the huge push China to get in there to "exploit" the huge oil and gas reserves. They interviewed a couple of workers on these projects and one of them said "There does not appear to be a word for safety in the Chinese language"
ReplyDeletePut a small C short on at 37.99.
ReplyDeleteThis one is Onion-worthy:
ReplyDelete"Pawlenty Says Cuts Will Spur Growth"
Problem is far too many people in this country still believe him.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/07/pawlenty-promises-high-growth-low-taxes-tight-spending/?hp
slow day!
ReplyDeleteManny - does he say how exactly we're going to get high growth with low taxes and reduced spending? Or is this another one of those "because I said so" campaign promises?
ReplyDeleteI think it's clearly the latter, Thor. The "faith-based" economy often brought to you by the very same people who believe every word of the bible is is indeed a fact. That's their whole credo. Everything is faith-based and devoid of factual evidence.
ReplyDeleteWaiting for Benny = Slow day.
The comments under that article on T-Paw (who brought us "fees" and skyrocketing property taxes instead of taxes on the rich and decent, drivable roads). I dub the "Pawlenty potholes". Our roads remain an embarrassment to any first-world country but hey, we can afford a billion dollar brand new Vikings Stadium to make multi-millionaires even richer! What a great deal! I'll bet there will be no potholes over at the new stadium. Problem is they play 8 regular season games a year there.
ReplyDeleteBut I digress. The comments under that article are actually very good, some very funny.
ReplyDeleteRally evaporating a little bit . . . .
ReplyDeleteInteresting quote from BR on the markets - I would say I have to agree with him at this point.
ReplyDeleteLast week’s big sell off was a 90/90 day, meaning 90% of the trading breadth and 90% of the share volume were to the downside. The playbook favors a 5 -7 day bounce, and then a resumption of the move downwards.
More downside for BAC too. Wow.
ReplyDeleteBoom!
ReplyDeleteSelling into the close again.
ReplyDeleteI think far too many are expecting a bounce. Which means it could be a very tepid one, at best, if at all, before this thing resumes its march downward. '07-'08 all over again but just a bit different.
ReplyDeleteBingo emmy. Where's Katy (or the PPT) to bar that door?
ReplyDeleteTLT now green too.
ReplyDeletebye bye rally
ReplyDeleteok, I think it's time I take a break from predictions - this is twice now my prediction has been proven wrong in under an hour! :-)
ReplyDeleteOBL, post-Manny top, top lives onward.
ReplyDeleteVicious vicious vicious. Tape's not playin.
ReplyDeleteI would like Denise, Rock, Dan and others (I-Man?) to weigh in but this close looks ominous to an amatuer like me. What it does it look like to the pros?
ReplyDeleteThanks emmy. That's what I think too. When do the bulls REALLY throw in the towel and take their gains AND losses (for the latecomers to th party) and go home?
ReplyDelete(realizes could have added to short nibble)
ReplyDelete(market falls 150 Dow pts tomorrow)
(doh)
Was that a classic bull trap or not?
ReplyDeleteThat's me as well, emmy. Took a shot at C today and still have my RIMM short but wish I had jumped on BAC too. I'm done shorting strength (hard lesson there) but am all over these weak puppies.
ReplyDeleteBenny summary. Me-thinks '12 is going to be a really tough year for Benny and Timmy (and the O-man). Should make for an "interesting" election year given the outright idiocy on the Right and the public's seemingly infinite willingness to buy their shite lock, stock and barrel, no matter how much contrary factual evidence is provided. Yikes.
ReplyDeleteSpeech highlights:
•BERNANKE SAYS ACCOMMODATIVE MONETARY POLICIES ARE STILL NEEDED
•BERNANKE EXPECTS RECENT RISE IN INFLATION TO BE `TRANSITORY'
•BERNANKE SAYS THE US ECONOMY IS GROWING WELL BELOW POTENTIAL
•BERNANKE SEES `PROSPECT OF INCREASING FISCAL DRAG' ON RECOVERY
•BERNANKE SEES HIRING ACCELERATING IN SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR
•BERNANKE SAYS ECONOMIC GROWTH `UNEVEN' AND `FRUSTRATINGLY SLOW'
•BERNANKE SAYS GROWTH LIKELY TO PICK UP IN 2ND HALF OF THIS YEAR
Manny,
ReplyDeleteBeen out all afternoon. As we could barely get over last night highs and did not exceed yesterday's highs, it was obviously a weak market. As I said earlier, internals are not supportive of a huge rally attempt, but this weak showing is revealing more of the market's character.
When the market is set up for a relief rally and one does not occur, then I would expect more weakness.
The fact that it did not break yesterday's lows is important as that would have triggered a massive sell off below 1285.00 ES. Maybe that is coming tomorrow.
After I do some home work I will see if anything else jumps out at me.
Manny - congratulations on your C short! ;-)
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteThere is no way that they are going to allow the economy to go down with out a fight into the 2012 elections. And Bernanke is not going to go down with the ship if he can help it. So that is my two cents worth.
Agreed Denise, but perhaps they've done just about everything they can do at this point and things are getting away from them? There are, after all, many things that remain beyond their control, even if perceptions are that they can control everything. I think they are losing control, or whatever illusion of control they had.
ReplyDeleteAgree with you both - they will try everything they can think of to stop a collapse before the election. The R's though, will try everything they can to make that a reality. Whether or not there's much they can do at this point is another story entirely!
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteThat is the biggest unknown, they have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the problem but in the end the administration is allowing itself to be held hostage by those who think that if we just cut taxes a little more on the rich and corporate, we will grow our way out of this.
This is where Obama's lack of leadership is most obvious. He is allowing the Republicans to control the message.
ReplyDeleteIf people are not employed, whether it is in the public or private sector, we are going to be slowly swirling down the toilet. Cutting jobs creates less demand for the goods and services that employ people. It is a vicious circle.
Cutting spending and austerity programs just make the demand side of the equation weaker.
Allowing the Republicans to control the message on taxes, deficits and debts, unemployment and austerity programs is economic suicide.
Obama can win the election and we can still lose our country economically.
In my humble opinion, both the Republicans and Democrats are working for the Feds and the Fed works for the Banks.
ReplyDeleteIn years past it was fairly easy to draw a line between what the D’s & R’s stood for, currently it seems they both want the same thing and that is for Keynesian (Debt Based) Economics to succeed.
It cracks me up that for the last 30+ years the majority of R’s have fought for Deficit Spending while the majority of D’s Have fought against it.
The same is true for social spending the majority of D’s have fought for it, while the majority of R’s against.
But look which party is now fighting to raise the debt ceiling and which is against it.
The debt ceiling WILL be raised and that cost will eventually be past along to us (Tax payers).
We have about 2 months before the debt ceiling is reached and needs to be raised, I would not be surprised to see the stock market continue to slide and economic “data” to continue to look bad, until then.
And both the D’s & R’s will claim they had to do it in order to save us from the coming Depression, after the debt ceiling is raised and we go into the fall of 2011, winter of 2012 the economy will “Improve” (Insert laughter) Obama will be re-elected, but the R’s will gain more control.
And hopefully after that the can will have finally been kicked so many times it will fall apart and instead of having it destroyed from the inside out we can start re-building our Great Nation from the inside out.
Mangy Mutt
Mutt,
ReplyDeleteFormer Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was told "deficits don't matter" when he warned of a looming fiscal crisis.
O'Neill, fired in a shakeup of Bush's economic team in December 2002, raised objections to a new round of tax cuts and said the president balked at his more aggressive plan to combat corporate crime after a string of accounting scandals because of opposition from "the corporate crowd," a key constituency.
O'Neill said he tried to warn Vice President Dick Cheney that growing budget deficits-expected to top $500 billion this fiscal year alone-posed a threat to the economy. Cheney cut him off. "You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don't matter," he said, according to excerpts. Cheney continued: "We won the midterms (congressional elections). This is our due." A month later, Cheney told the Treasury secretary he was fired.
The vice president's office had no immediate comment, but John Snow, who replaced O'Neill, insisted that deficits "do matter" to the administration.
The arrogance is breathtaking, almost as good as this blast from the past:
ReplyDelete"The traditional Republican stance was expressed eloquently back in 1992, when James Baker, at the time Secretary of State to President George H. W. Bush, said "[Expletive] the Jews. They didn't vote for us anyway."
@Mutt,
ReplyDeleteHow did your trip go in Victoria?
ICan
"Obama fears Greece default 'disastrous' for U.S." - and
ReplyDelete"Obama looks at extra stimulus" - FT.com
From Mauldin 's weekly letter, "Economic Whiplash", There is $600 Trillion in derivatives now loose in the world. Who knows which banks have written them and to whom? The next crisis has the potential to be just a bad or worse than 2008. Which is why the European leaders are so dead set in avoiding a day of reckoning".
ICan
@I Can: U.S. bailout for Greece coming? It's one giant shell game. The amount of debt that's owed in the world can't possibly be repaid but TPTB must extend things for as long as possible so that they can take everything that's remaining that's not nailed down before it all caves in on the rest of us.
ReplyDeleteTyranny of the corrupt, incompetent, greedy, sociopathic.
Rock,
ReplyDeleteYour "Rock's checklist" comes up as 4th in Google search terms.
Still 96 degrees here outside. Wow. A high of 102 today. Gonna barely hit 60 on Friday.
ReplyDeleteICan - We did not travel over the weekend, the biggest reason, we were going up toward Seattle and possibly B.C. Was to see the daughter, but that did not work out.
ReplyDeleteThanks for asking though.
Mutt
Manny - shush now, we're having the coldest spring in 50 years here ;-)
ReplyDeleteMutt, have you been to Victoria? It's beautiful!!
Is it just me - or does it seem like the whole world has a very very VERY small needle to thread over the next 6 to 12 months? So many things that can go wrong, all over the world, it feels like things are teetering just on the edge, and I'm not hopeful of which way things are going to fall.
ReplyDeleteIs that just me? Am I being paranoid here?