A guide to the escalating conflict in the South China Sea
WSJ: Investors Hazard Bold Bet on Yuan
YOKU not looking good
The Sensex is bipolar
WSJ: Hungry China Shops in Argentina
FT: Strong balance sheets help fuel surge in US buy-backs. 2011 is on trend for $548 billion compared to $655 billion for 2006...
Groupon’s idea of going quiet. Bonus: Groupon's CEO prepares his "**** you, shareholders!" face.
Top court rules for Janus in securities case
What I Think Technical Analysis Is
@Emmanuel117:
ReplyDeleteThanks for the links.
Actually, the first link is probably the main reason they're letting me go home. I think the thinking out here is it may get ugly, and Singapore's really in the way with its western alliance and life.
I guarantee that's what that Kraft VP is thinking.
It is interesting that in 1970, Americans were the worst of the worst in Vietnam, and now, after beating the crap out of us, they come back and say "protect us, protect us please!!"
I think if I were Hillary, I'd tell them exactly where they should stuff it.
Emmie thank you!!
ReplyDeleteHah! Serves them right, idiots.
ReplyDeleteGeorgia Immigration Law Already Hurting Farmers | “It might almost be funny if it wasn’t so sad,” the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Jay Bookman writes of the horrendous results of HB87, Georgia’s Arizona-like immigration law. Despite being signed just over a month ago, the law has already caused a mass exodus of undocumented laborers from the state, leaving Georgia farms at least 11,000 workers short of what is needed to operate. The result: millions of dollars’ worth of Georgia crops are rotting in the fields because there is no one there to harvest them. The state’s farmers are panicking, and Gov. Nathan Deal (R), who signed the law in May, is scrambling to keep more farmers from losing crops and in some cases their farms.
@Rock
ReplyDeleteEh, the Vietnamese Communists have always been pragmatists when it comes to their foreign relations. I'd take them up on it since we would need them and other nations in the area to help counter Chinese expansion in the South China Sea.
@Thor
Quien is Juan Jose-Maria Galto?
@Emmamuel,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the links.
Re, Yuan, yeh, "everyone and their grandmother are long the Yuan". But, there is always a 'but'. Good to know the other side of the trade.
Re, South China Sea conflict,this quote sums it up.
"China CLAIMS it has the right to just about the entire South China Sea....It would be as if(the United States)just declared the entire Atlantic Ocean was our territorial waters, and anyone else who tried to explore it, we could cut their cables, sink their ship".
India knows all about China(oh so friendly). They took over Tibet, are muddling in Arunachal Predesh and in Kashmir(Pakistan too).
I think they are trying to build a dam on the Bramputra river(flowing through eastern India).
ICan
I think all this export of cheap credit and knoweldge to emerging markets will come back to haunt America and Western Europe some day - at the expense of middle class(the manufacturing base) and it's the greed of the super-rich who want to save taxes, make, yet, more money. I remember that 'free trade' fight in Canada - started with Bush/Mulroney/Mexico.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow, personally it didn't affect me because I have no family member who is currently working for a manufacturer.
Long term it will affect all of us who like live in the 'free world'.
ICan
Interesting article on Credit Suisse predicting China hard landing; comparison to Japan.
ReplyDeletehttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/21/601051/credit-suisse-slashes-chinese-banks/
mikec
@mikec
ReplyDelete"CS starts with a familiar view of the macro picture: “massive off-balance sheet financing”, visible only in credit-to-GDP ratios (rather than loan-to-GDP ratios), “raises a red flag for future asset quality problems in banks”."
Where have I heard this before...
Emmie - Juan Jose? Me confused :-)
ReplyDeleteHey mike - welcome!
Emmy,
ReplyDeleteGreat links as always.
I have been reading the Aleph Blog lately and I find it very useful.
mikec,
ReplyDeleteWelcome and thanks for the link to the article. The more things change, the more they remain the same.
Summer has finally come to the desert. 108 and rising!
ReplyDeleteMike - That article was very good, thank you!
ReplyDeleteThe money quote:
Red flag noted, CS is no longer expecting a soft landing for China, even if inflation genuinely comes down.
I think the Greece-->China-->US road to our next leg down is looking more and more clear.
How long do you think it'll take until the MSM gets around to changing the "rising China" meme?
That assumes, of course, that China will come down hard and stay hard. I think you all know where I stand on that ;-)
ReplyDeleteThis is not a positive trend for our economy if you ask me:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/business/26work.html?pagewanted=3&hp
I'm with you on China, Thor. A matter of time. Question is, when that hard landing hits, who will they take it out on?
that didn't come out quite right, come down hard and stay DOWN. :-)
ReplyDeleteThanks Thor, I have been a long time lurker, back to the days at Andy's. Finally opened up my own trading account a few months ago and I'm up about 6% thanks to you guys, mostly trading TLT. Recently I have been watching SWHC; its at all time lows and has had a lot of price volatility. Mike
ReplyDeleteWelcome Mike! Gotta love TLT. Slow and steady. Hope to hear more from you!
ReplyDeleteMike,
ReplyDeleteWe welcome all lurkers to join the party! We have had a lot of blog volatility, but we are still here.
Obviously, you have a sense of humor coupled with an appreciation of chaos and we are glad that you stuck around to comment.
And Manny has been on fire with his TLT!
ReplyDeleteThor - Your 5:06 made me laugh.
ReplyDeleteAnd I am bitting my tongue to not comment more :)
Mangy Mutt
Ican - Thank you for sharing your unique perspective of India and China, it seems that most of us do not have a clear understanding of how important certain things are (At least I know I don't grasp it well enuff)
ReplyDeleteMutt
So we arrived home to a house with power, internet and phone. The town still looks like a war zone with large tree trunks and branches down, including my back yard.
ReplyDeleteThe refrigerator and freezer are empty except for ketchup, coffee, and barbecue sauce. It did give me an opportunity to get rid of a bunch of questionable stuff that should have been thrown away a long time ago.
@dss(8:06)
ReplyDeleteGood to know everything is o.K.
@Mutt,
Thanks.
ICan
John Mauldin's weekly letter is a must read -"The Contagion Risk Of Europe". Ugh!
ReplyDelete"Pharmaceutical companies are starting to refuse to deliver to Greek hospitals as they are up to two years behinding in their payments". WOW!
If Greece defaults, European banks are in big trouble, U.S. money market funds are in trouble... We've discussed that here before.
ICan
3 generations of Papas -Greece's first family.
ReplyDelete"The Papas And The Papas" - ZH.
Gerorge Jr., current PM of Greece, born in St.Paul, Minnesota, studied at Amherst and Harvard.
"George Jr. is being forced to dismantle state projects championed by his father".
None of them were(are) good accountants/managers.
ICan
ICan - I read the Mauldin letter this weekend, it was very sobering. He sounds as worried as we do.
ReplyDeleteProblem with Mauldin is that he has a poor accuracy rate with his predictions. Interesting to read what he has to say, regardless.
ReplyDeletehttp://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/05/ranking-gurus.html
This is a funny take on Mauldin:
ReplyDeletehttp://investingcaffeine.com/2010/04/14/john-mauldin-the-man-who-cries-wolf/
I find it interesting that a man who freely admits to his challenged prediction capabilities continues to make bold assertive forecasts. Mauldin freely confesses in his writings about his inability to manage money and make correct market forecasts, but that hasn’t slowed down the pessimism express. Just two years ago as the financial crisis was unfolding, Mauldin admits to his poor fortune telling skills with regards to his annual forecast report each January:
“ I was wrong (as usual) about the stock markets.”
So I read his stuff with a grain of salt. But it is always interesting to read his take on things.
@dss(9:52),
ReplyDeleteThanks You.
I am not trading on this info. But, a country which hasn't paid pharams for the last two years?
China may, yet, bail them out. Premier is coming to Europe this week. ZH/BBC
ICan
ICan,
ReplyDeleteSounds a lot like Illinois!
http://www.sj-r.com/top-stories/x898072428/Illinois-Medicaid-budget-to-fall-far-short-of-cost-of-care
The state almost certainly will handle the gap by letting more medical bills go unpaid. Checks that now go out within 30 days could sit around for 120 days before the state can afford to pay them, Gov. Pat Quinn’s office warns.
In effect, the state isn’t cutting spending. It’s pushing off $1.1 billion in payments until the next budget year, to join the roughly $6 billion in overdue bills that have piled up already. "
We are not quite in Greek territory, but I think things get worse, not better from here.
Yes, Mauldin's newsletters are always interesting as he is a great observer but not something to use to trade or invest.
ReplyDeleteICan,
ReplyDeleteChina knows that in this global economy we are all connected and if Greece/Europe is unable to work out their debts it will deeply affect China.
Now they are the lender of last resort?
Denise - you should read the letter though if you haven't. He's pretty good this week. I don't read him as closely as I used to, especially after he pushed so hard for the tax breaks for the wealthy, but this letter is a good one.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteI read it. We moved all of our money to 100% government only securities MMF (you have to check the prospectus because they say that they are 'gov' security MMF, when they are not 100%) in 2007. We make no money but the money is there.
The one thing about Mauldin is that he always makes a great case for his position and supports his conclusions with very impressive insights, facts, etc., but again, I take what he says with a grain of salt. At least he is an impressive, thoughtful commentator, unlike some of the idiots out there, but he still gets a lot of things wrong.