Hello everybody.
I'm playing with the new data and watching how are performing the stocks that I mentioned with upside potential (if the market change direction at least for a while).
To the ones that I'm following
HERO
MDCO
JBLU
TSYS
MKSI
JBL
I'll add FMC and QUIK.
The ones that I mentioned April 27 with chances of going down:
APKT down 19%
COH is up 3%
DECK down 18%
VRSN down 15%
ACTG down 22%
TXRH down 4%
So the ones that I wouldn't think to short are the companies that drop little, but here comes the nuance about the weak performers, they have to keep behaving weak to the upside too.Their movements can not perform like the average, they cannot reverse with the same briskness like the rest of the market (in case of a bounce).
Can go up but not that much.
The confirmation of it's weaknes shouldn't be interrupted at any time on the move up to keep considering them good candidates for a nice drop.Their agility to recover has to be impaired otherwise the astrological effects that I'm considering are being hijacked by the main trend.
If they remain weak the drop with a reversal could be important.
Regarding the stock market even though a bounce is expected I'm more inclined to expect a puke before a nice advance.Thursday and/or late wednesday and early Friday could produce that kind of drop. Keep in mind that this is a mere cheap prediction of third order.
First order since early September, still on.
Second order started first week of May, still on.
The last thing is I'm going to post all my posts too at dastrostockmarket.com
I went to read what I said September 2 2010 about the big trend up that I thought was starting right there, just to discover that it doesn't exist anymore, puf...gone with the wind, Blogger's algo snatched it.
If, like I mentioned in the past, expect that my efforts (right or wrong) can withstand the test of time,I have to have it in one secure place first, dammit.
So Saturday I will set up that thing and Sunday morning are going to be, each and every fucking prediction that I make, in some kind of list.
And yes, safe from the capitalistic claws of Blogger.Lol.
Dan
Dan,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the post. Congrats on the picks.
We switched to this new site in October 2010, so any posts prior to that are on the old site, if it still exists. If it does exist you could probably still copy your work from there.
Maybe someone knows if that is possible.
Market up strongly this morning. Almost 1%.
ReplyDeleteXHB up 2.27%!
Turnaround Tuesday is upon us.
ReplyDeleteYes, indeed, Manny.
ReplyDeleteC now down on the day though. Still weak.
ReplyDeleteDitto BAC. The TBTF twins.
ReplyDeleteThis is a great illustration on why people get confused about the market:
ReplyDeleteRetail Sales Fell For The First Time In A Year
Americans bought fewer cars in May, pulling retail sales down for the first time in nearly a year.
Sales among U.S. retailers fell 0.2 percent last month, the Commerce Department said. It was the first decline after 10 straight increases and the latest report signaling the economy has lost momentum. Consumers are struggling to deal with high gasoline prices and a slowdown in hiring.
True Denise, but we have had 6 straight weeks of a market selloff so perhaps that news is conisidered "priced in" by Mr. Market? Or this slowing is perceived as a minor blip in the recovery story (although I'm a bit circumspect there). Or that QE or some other form of "stimulus" that serves mainly to stimulate asset prices, is coming?
ReplyDeleteAnd this from Bloomberg about those same Retail Sales:
ReplyDeleteUS Stocks Advance on Retail Sales and China Industrial Production
Retail sales fell but the decline was better than expected, so stocks rally.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteAt this point everything is priced in! I am thinking that this is the relief rally, short covering rally, what ever rally that I was looking for last week.
This could be a few day's wonder or maybe even last a week. Friday is options expiration, so everyone who bought puts is getting creamed.
ReplyDeleteSo this could be an example of the market rallying on bad news. Also the PPI numbers came in higher than expected.
ReplyDeleteChina's Industrial Production climbed higher also, which caused China to increase their bank's reserve requirements.
ReplyDeleteNew York Crude Oil Fluctuates on US Retail Sales and Chinese Reserve Increase
"Crude rose as much as 0.5 percent after purchases dropped 0.2 percent in May, less than economists estimated, figures from the Commerce Department in Washington showed today. Oil declined earlier as China, the world’s largest energy user, ordered lenders to set aside more cash as reserves after inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in almost three years. "
ReplyDeleteSo China is still on fire according to their Industrial Production Numbers.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteI don't try to figure out what the numbers mean as you can see that one news source says sales were down, another says, they were down, but better than expected.
I watch the reaction to the news not the news itself.
And I am about as qualified to figure out what is going on with QE2 or QE3 as I am to qualified to do brain surgery.
ReplyDeleteMorning folks!
ReplyDelete'Transitory rally'- Cam Hui's good call yesterday!
ReplyDeleteWe'll see.
ICan
Great points, Denise. I just added to my C short. Would love to put one on with BAC too. Might add to my RIMM short as well.
ReplyDeleteNew 52-week low for CSCO too.
ReplyDeleteBut you did notice that Larry Summers now pronounces that the economy is terrible:
ReplyDeleteLarry Summers: The American Economy Is Sick
"Most strikingly, Summers takes direct aim at the assumption that amounts to the default stance inside the White House: If we demonstrate our resolve at attacking long-term budget deficits by cutting spending, the market will gain "confidence" -- a mystical term among practicing economists. Eventually, everything will get better.
Nonsense, Summers effectively scoffs. "A sick economy constrained by demand works very differently from a normal one," he writes, before calling for a fresh stimulus while pointedly rejecting deficit-cutting as the fix. "The fiscal debate must accept that the greatest threat to our creditworthiness is a sustained period of slow growth."
So I am thinking that either Obama has decided that his deficit reduction (Republican fueled) plan was not working and now the administration is "signaling" to the world that QE3 or deficit reduction is not the highest priority, especially coming into the election.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteBAC rose despite the bad news of it's impeding foreclosures. But it is almost to it's daily 20 ema and prior 2010 support.
@Denise: Summers is a real piece of work, isn't he? Just the kind of "brilliant", arrogant sociopath who can rise to the top and stay there despite being continually wrong on so many important things. Although he's not wrong that the "economy is sick". We could have told him that a long time ago.
ReplyDeleteICan,
ReplyDeleteI missed your link yesterday to Cam Hui's comments, but after reading them I totally agree with everything he says.
I am going to put his link in our Trading Links.
Thanks!
Manny,
ReplyDeleteThat is the understatement of the year. Now he can be the useful shadow spokesman for the administration. He would never speak out like that on the economy unless he ran it by the WH, or they may have asked him to make those statements as they are so opposite of his positions while in the WH.
It's hard to be surprised or shocked by anything anymore but this might still qualify:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/was-iraq-war-merely-smokescreen-largest-theft-taxpayer-funds-national-history
This one caused me to raise an eyebrow this morning:
ReplyDeleteFlorida police leaving GOP en masse
http://www.politicususa.com/en/florida-police-gop?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+politicususa%2FfJAl+%28Politicus+USA+%29
Perhaps the Sheeple ARE indeed finally waking up, if ever slowly?
FL governor Rick Scott's approval rating is now 29% after only six months in office. Yikes.
ReplyDeleteDan - Bergie kept the other blog alive for several months with several announcements over that period asking anyone who wanted to save their work to please do so before the he deleted the site.
ReplyDeleteManny - I read that! Have you been keeping up on the recall elections in Wisconsin? Are they going to try to recall the governor there as well? I'd imagine Walker's approval ratings are pretty bad as well.
ReplyDeleteInflation down to it's lowest rate in 10 months. Funny how that turned out eh? How much longer before we start hearing about deflation again? I give it three months.
ReplyDeleteWhat QE3 could look like:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/06/parsing-helicopter-speech-part-two.html
@Thor: I believe they are furiously trying to put together petitions to recall not only Walker but the Congressman who voted for that Union busting bill. All of them, including a few Dems. However, the GOP is also furiously trying to ram through a number of bills before it happens.
ReplyDelete@Denise(11:21)
ReplyDeleteThanks Denise. He's based in Vancouver, so has some thoughts on Cdn/Chinese markets - very relevent to me. But he posts occasionally.
ICan
@Thor(11:46)
ReplyDeleteEven with food and fuel? Do you believe those number?
ICan
ICan,
ReplyDeletePosting good stuff occasionally is better than posting massive quantities of crap on a daily basis.
ICan - yes actually, I do. I still (believe it or not) that the major trend we are facing right now is still deflation. QE, QE2, and the endless infrastructure build-out in China are simply fingers in the damn. Once things break, or rather if they break for good, things will go right back to deflation.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I'm careful about for the US at least, as that there is ZERO purchasing power left for the American consumer. Not only are people maxed out debt-wise, they aren't getting and raises, income is falling, not rising. All rising food and gas prices have done (and continue to do) in this country is to destroy demand, which is itself a check on prices. Yes, we have to eat, and we have to drive, but people don't have to eat nearly so much, or drive nearly as often so when prices on those rise too high, it's going to tank the economies and shove many of them back into outright deflation. . .
Pushing in a string, that was the phrase I was looking for. Where's my damn second cup of coffee? :-/
ReplyDelete@Thor(12:30),
ReplyDeleteIf deflation, then interest rates will stay low, which will fuel cheap credit for emerging markets, which will lead to higher commodity prices in the intermediate to long term - inflation in things we need - fuel and food.
Deflationn may be for the short term?
Any how Soros is out of China -
"Soros: Out of China". - theglobeandmail.com
And,
"Household debt hits record $1.5 trillion".
ICan
ICan - first you have to have people who are 1. qualified for that easy credit and 2. interested in it when it's available. If there is no consumer demand for loans, there will be no increase in consumer lending regardless of the interest rates. We've had years now with very very low interest rates and consumer lending has barely budged. I don't think that consumers are going to somehow magically start buying things on credit that they don't have the money to repay.
ReplyDeleteAlso - please keep in mind that I'm talking about the US and the EU, not emerging markets. I think China's inflation rate will also eventually take care of itself but that because of the nature of their economy and the form of their government, it will take a lot longer for that to play out than many have argued.
And god forbid China really does fall off a cliff with their economy - say goodbye to Brazil and most of the other BRICS.
ReplyDeleteI don't know how much of the "growth" in either India or China is solid (does anyone?), sustainable growth, or growth not entirely dependent on a bubble economy, but I have said it before, and will say it again, I don't believe for one second that these insane growth numbers both countries are reporting is real. Once the bubbles pop, they'll correct, not all the way back down to where they were 20 years ago, but enough that talks of the rising Tiger and Dragon will go the way of The Rising Sun.
http://www.amazon.com/Rising-Sun-Michael-Crichton/dp/0345380371
Sugar and Cream?
ReplyDeleteI like your satement "Once things break, or rather if they break for good"
Yup it seems there is too much debt given to too many overleveraged countries that the countries need to keep letting other borrow just so they can stay afloat.
I will let you borrow 100,000 this week only if you let me borrow 110K next week....
Craziness.
Mutt
Mutt - I think talks of us approaching the End Game as far as our economies go are spot on. I think we're now seeing governments leverage up the way consumers and businesses did for 30 years, I don't think it's going to take anywhere near that long for this phase to play out, just a matter of who starts the ball rolling. Greece? Spain? Us?
ReplyDeleteNew 52-week low for my favorite new short RIMM.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, a government shutdown in MN still looms.
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/2011/06/14/news/economy/Minnesota_shutdown/index.htm?iid=HP_LN&hpt=hp_bn4
Manny - I had no idea! Reading . . . Our own budget is still a mess here in CA. On the plus side, legislators here no longer get paid once the budget is late, not that that's going to do anything to help, but it still makes me feel a little better!
ReplyDeleteDenise - have you read this article yet? I think it might apply to you ;-)
ReplyDeleteWhy women make better investors
New study finds women are better at everything, including investing, writes David Weidner.
oops - here's the link
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/women-are-better-investors-and-heres-why-2011-06-14
ICan - that Canadian Consumer Debt article was a good one, I had no idea!
ReplyDeleteAlthough consumer spending declined in the first quarter of 2011, many Canadians are continuing to falter, weighed down by their daily living expenses. In fact, the study says, if household debt was spread evenly across all Canadians, a family with two children would owe an estimated $176, 461, including mortgage costs, the report said.
Haven't really asked this of the group yet, but we're all pretty savvy so thought it might be appropriate. Are we all prepared to weather a more serious second downturn? I've been planning for economic catastrophe for at least two years now, I figure that if we do end up with QE3, that it may very well be the last round before another serious leg down, the time we have to wait for it I'm assuming will also be shorter. I intend to use that in-between time, the time during QE3 to really double down on making sure I'm prepared . . . or at least as prepared as a person can be in these times.
ReplyDelete@Thor(1:02)
ReplyDeleteT was talking about Ems. Demand for cheaper credit in the emerging markets, not in the western world.
ICan
^ meant to write"I"
ReplyDeleteSorry.
ICan - I figured as much after I'd already hit Post Comment, sorry buddy.
ReplyDeleteREALLY good article I thought!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/ayn-rands-death-of-the-soul-of-capitalism-2011-06-14?pagenumber=2
Ayn Rand’s ‘Death of the Soul of Capitalism’
Commentary: Self-destructive narcissists are sabotaging Adam Smith’s ideal
Future historians will see Ayn Rand as both the patron saint of the new narcissistic capitalism that has dominated conservatives and Reaganomics for the last generation. And her legacy will also include the “Death of Capitalism,” a demise Jack Bogle wrote about so eloquently six years ago in his “Battle for the Soul of Capitalism.”
Unfortunately, the new narcissistic capitalists are blind to this paradigm shift in America’s destiny. As Lasch puts it: “Impending disaster has become an everyday concern, so commonplace and familiar that nobody any longer gives much thought to how disaster might be averted. People busy themselves instead with survival strategies, measures designed to prolong their own lives, or programs guaranteed to ensure good health and peace of mind.” Get it? Deep inside we know it’s too late, so we give up.
Yes, this narcissism is metastasizing so rapidly Americans feel ever more helpless to solve our problems, making collapse a self-fulfilling prophecy. Yes, this toxic narcissistic virus has infected America’s soul, eating away at our core values while blinding us to both the problem and the solution.
We have lost the collective spirit that led 57 capitalists to risk their lives and fortunes signing of the Declaration of Independence. That’s dead. Today it’s “every man for himself” in a capitalist anarchy.
You ask, why do we embrace our own demise like out-of-control addicts? In behavioral economics, as in classical Greek drama, Jungian psychology and cultural mythologies … all the battles we see “out there” are actually projections of unresolved conflicts raging deep within our own souls … we’re rehashing old traumas projected on the outside world as battles between our highest ideals and our darkest secrets … classic battles between good and evil.
Here is the money quote:
ReplyDelete"This probably doesn’t come as a shock to anyone. A new body of evidence is emerging that shows women are better at just about everything — or, as Dan Abrams has titled his new book, “Man Down: Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt That Women Are Better Cops, Drivers, Gamblers, Spies, World Leaders, Beer Tasters, Hedge Fund Managers, and Just About Everything Else.”
Thor,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much for the compliment. For the most part I do believe that women do many things better than men, when they are allowed to, that is. Many professions have been closed to women or women have been relegated to support positions.
Of course, there are many professions where men excel, too.
Given equal opportunities, I think that the hardest working person of either sex is the one that will excel.
I am not a natural born risk taker so I have to push myself to take more risk at times, while men usually do not have that problem.
But men take more risks in all areas of life so it is a double edged sword; how can you succeed if you don't take extra risk.
Denise - We shouldn't forget doctors, after a lifetime of only going to male doctors I finally got fed up and switched to a woman two years ago. I'll never have another male doctor again if I can help it. I think women doctors are far and away better healers and caregivers than men, and that's got to be biologically based. I could kick myself for waiting 37 years to make the change!
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteThat is a very interesting article. It certainly has described the evolution of American economic thought, where we once believed that we are all pulling for a common cause within the capitalistic economic system (WWII and post WWII years) of America. Now it is every man for himself, and the common good be damned.
Greg - you have to love that JC Penny is up more today than it has been in a decade. All because they got the guy in charge or retail for Apple!
ReplyDeleteCrap - there goes more equity, and I thought things were getting better :-(
ReplyDeleteDataQuick's LA County home sale numbers for May are out and the news is not good: sales fell 18.3 percent from May 2010 and median price fell 7.2 percent. Last year, sales were propped up by federal homebuyer tax credits, but DQ President John Walsh says in a press release that "The government stimulus is long gone and some of the fundamental drivers of housing demand have yet to strengthen enough to lift sales to even average levels. Some of the key culprits are weak job growth, tight credit and a hesitancy among potential buyers and sellers."
I thought things were getting better in the LA RE market, sorry.
ReplyDeleteJust popping to say hello! Thks Dan, cool analysis. While I don't really have a "trading plan" (quickly checked my 2/3 regular charts), I share some elements of your analysis. Namely, I'd be inclined to see at least a brief rally short term.
ReplyDeletePlus up trendline still waiting to be tested, may have its chance soon then!
And good idea about blog, I think. I too like to think of the "social websites" as a good storage place to share, while making sure you can retrieve coherent chunks of your previous work if needed in the future.
ReplyDeleteEven more so considering how we fellow traders here are unpredictable!:p
As for myself, will have less time for checking in here at AT, as for trading in general. Busy near future, checking for a new job.
ReplyDeleteNevertheless, our community remains my favorite place to talk about markets, misc stuff, and fellows from all over the world ! So I'll never be too far. Have fun!
Wolfie - don't worry about it, life happens to all of us. Plus, this is my favorite place too, and I think (fingers crossed) we may finally be stable enough and "things" have settled down enough that we'll be around for a long time. I know I'm not planning on leaving anytime soon, I've gotten more than a little attached to people here!! :-)
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree about the female doctors. Dentists, also.
And we all get busy in the warmer months having fun, markets get slow, too.
ReplyDeleteThe best part about this place is the ability to come and go as our schedules and lives permit.
Almost a perfect trend day up, with a small sell off into the close. Been long since last night. We closed fairly strong so that is a good sign of continuation.
ReplyDeleteDenise (3:13) Sure women are better at cooking and cleaning, but are they REALLY better drivers :p
ReplyDeleteWhether it is woman's "Intuition" or just how their brains are different then men's. I believe most women can, see and pickup on patterns or concepts differently then most men.
For the most part, women are able to connect things together (IF "a" and "b" happen then we can move straight on to "x") - Where many men need to have a line drawn for them (We ain't getting to "x" until "a" and "b" and "c" and..... are all connected)
I perfer female Dr's to their male counter parts.
Mutt
You also must'nt forget that men are inherintly more lazy.
ReplyDeleteYou see many of our modern conviences were not invented until after WWII. The men went off to fight in the war which caused the need for women to work in the factories.
After returing from war and women getting a taste of life without being a "Housewife" and men were forced to do domestic chores.
Well the men soon realized how difficult these chores were and thought to themselves - Forget that!!!! So they invented the modern washing machine, hot water heater and microwave (Just to name a few)
Which then meant the women had more time to talk on the phone - But THAT is an entirely different story.
Mutt
The weak sisters of RIMM, C, BAC all still down on a big up day. I like it.
ReplyDeleteMutt,
ReplyDeleteYes, accident statistics indicate that women really are better drivers, for the most part.
Agreed that the brains are wired differently, hunter vs. gatherer.
But it seems these days that women have the edge over the men when it comes to self inflicted sexual predicaments, but it takes two to tango so where does that leave either sex?
Blogger just ate my comment.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteNow you are thinking like a real trader! It is one of the first things I look at, what is trading out of sync and what, if anything, does it mean.
@Denise: Men too often let other parts of their bodies override their brains. Women aren't nearly as prone to making those mistakes. I'll just leave it at that. LOL.
ReplyDeleteYes, Denise. It's been yet ANOTHER hard lesson, namely to short weakness and NOT strength. You, Rock, Dan, and others have hammeered that point home firmly recently. I'm a little slow sometimes but eventually I come around. LOL.
ReplyDeleteI'd also love to add (and put one on for BAC) to those weak sisters on any signficant blip upward like I did with C today. None are showing any signs of strength just yet.
Manny - It's good to see you trading again! I'm living vicariously through you fyi ;-)
ReplyDeleteJust nibbling, Thor, but I feel better about these days.
ReplyDeleteManny - me too actually, I'm a very cautious trader after all I've seen, read, and lost, but I'm finally starting to feel like I've learned enough from Denise and Rock and all the other folks that I could possibly jump back in at some point in the not too distant future and not lose a ton of money . . well, at least not as quickly!
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteSometimes the key to success is changing one aspect of your strategy. Not shorting strength or buying weakness is key, watching former S&R areas, and using moving averages are simple things that anyone can do.
A good example of this is the price action in BAC. Since the break down in mid March, the rallies back to the 50 and then 20 ema were picture perfect selling points.
Exactly Denise. I've learned to stop being stubborn (and impatient) and taking what the action gives me. Gains haven't been huge, by any means, but it's better than losses.
ReplyDeletePoor Hugh Heffner. The marriage is off. LOL.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13772027
Perhaps this woman came to what sense she may have? What a circus lifestyle these people lead. It's like a different universe, nevermind planet.
Hugh Heffner is still alive?
ReplyDeleteManny - you read Huffington Post don't you? What's with the celebrity articles on the left? Why would any sane person give a shit what Marlo Thomas or George Clooney have to say about anything going on in the world today?
ReplyDeleteThese people are Hollywood Celebrities, they are so far out of the mainstream they may as well be living on another planet.
I agree, Thor, and never read them.
ReplyDeleteHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mediaite.com/tv/bill-maher-jane-lynch-read-anthony-weiner-sexts/
My wife gets People Magazine and tells me every last bit about the lives of "These people are Hollywood Celebrities, they are so far out of the mainstream they may as well be living on another planet"
ReplyDeleteGood grief, If I could cancel the subscription I would.
They are beyond out there.
Mutt
re Thor: great! :D I didn't think you would leave us in peace anyway.
ReplyDeleteWith your iPad and stuff. :D
ReplyDelete