Morning all! As always happens when the weather turns great here in the summer, yours truly had a VERY busy weekend soaking up the outdoors doing the following: golfing, hitting the corner Art Fair with friends (didn't see a ton of actual buying there, by the way, but lots of bored looking merchants), walking the dog around the lake, getting our gardening done (tomatoes and flowers), and capping it off with Sunday evening dinner on Lake Minnetonka. So what does that mean? It basically means that aside from reading a few posts here and there, I've basically been out to lunch and have nothing for you this morning.
Here is one unfolding, and very interesting, battle that I've been following between Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism and the Roosevelt Institute, other so-called "progressive" institutions and their backers whom she believes has been co-opted by big money by being brought into the Pete Peterson discussion on the fate of Social Security. Kudos to Yves for calling these people out. Incidentally, this theme is very much the same one in Chris Hedges' great book, Death of the Liberal Class. Note just how defensive some of these entrenched insiders (e.g. Mike Konczal) in these "liberal" institutions are getting with Yves. I find that very interesting on many levels.
Bribes Work: How Peterson, the Enemy of Social Security, Bought the Roosevelt Name
On Fauxgressive Rationalizations of Selling Out to Powerful, Moneyed Backers
So, what's on everyone's minds this morning? Will the stock market get off its 5-week losing schneide this week? Or will there be more pain in store for equities?
Hey all. Hope everyone is doing fine.
ReplyDeleteAbout the markets: is any fellow trader here anticipating a rebound ? I think it may be worth dipping a toe on the long side when the S&P500 gets to the 1294 support (probably today). Highly speculative of course.
See you later;)
That what I was thinking today. Am thinking we get a bounce maybe this week, if not a little one.
ReplyDeleteMarket AND TLT down. Somethign gotta give there? To QE or not to QE, that is the question.....
ReplyDeleteOr does it even matter to Mr. Market this point?
@Wolfstreet
ReplyDeleteTrends continue down in almost all my stocks. I had to get out of AAPL, it just isn't acting right.
Your trader friend may be right. The number of S&P stocks trading above their 50 DMA was 164 on Friday, and I suspect now (I can't get realtime) we've hit my "magic number" (not so magic, if you look at the charts) of 150. That number is about where other rallies have started.
But, as Mannwich says, this one feels different. I am going to not chance it, when the VXX turns around this evening, I will exit my shorts and look for a Turn Around Tuesday. I think one of the differences this time is many of the large cap stocks (like CAT) are below their 50 DMA.
Except for of course my RIMM short, which continues to be put out of business by AAPL.
Anybody know who else AAPL wants to put out of business? Think they might be targeting NFLX?
Kicking myself for not shorting C on Friday. Think that thing is a goner long term. Possibly BAC as well. Can I find enough nickels under the mattress to hang in on both longer term in case they go up for a bit?
ReplyDeleteMorning folks!
ReplyDeleteMost indicators seemingly turning negative now. Question is how does TPTB stop this turn? If we get two solid months of negative numbers everywhere, me-thinks they have a big problem on their hands, as will most of the rest of us.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/survey-small-business-hiring-plans-turn.html
We might have a relief rally. So far the ticks have not confirmed the sell off today, or Friday. No new tick lows since 6/2.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see what happens on the test of the low, if they go that far.
ReplyDeleteSorry, my post of 10:56 was in error. My charts had not updated.
ReplyDeleteWe have not gone below the negative tick mark of 6/1 or 6/2, but have surpassed 6/3's lows.
ReplyDelete6/1 825 -1416
6/2 1180 -1265
6/3 1146 -1084
6/6 743 -1129
There will be lots of short covering above 1294.00 es.
ReplyDelete129.95 SPY
ReplyDeleteThis is a small time bullish divergence when the prices make new lows (and a push below Friday's lows) and the ticks do not make new lows.
ReplyDeleteStill consolidating below Friday's lows.
ReplyDeleteI really would love a bounce soon so that I can get a bit short. Don't want to do it just yet.
ReplyDeleteWe're not still seeing a rout in commodities are we?
ReplyDeleteI see oil and gold haven't budged all that much the last few sessions. . .
As Corey would say - popped stops!
ReplyDeleteiCloud comes today!
ReplyDeleteI would not consider a relief rally to begin until we pass this morning's highs of 1298.25 ES.
ReplyDeleteAnd 130.36 SPY.
Otherwise it is just more consolidation under the Friday lows.
Silver up slightly, Gold up, oil down slightly.
ReplyDeleteCopper is doing nothing.
Hah - looks like the oil industry is going to try to make the case that regulations are the reason gas prices are too high. People aren't stupid enough to fall for that BS anymore are they?
ReplyDelete@Thor: Do you really want us to answer that question? Those nice multi-national corporations only have the public's interests at heart. Don't you know anything?
ReplyDeleteThe United States of Stockholm Syndrome rolls onward.
I wonder how many more of these are out there in our own country? I'm sure quite a few. I have some suspicions of my own.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/muddy-waters-carson-block-discusses-sino-forest-says-will-keep-short-ponzi-until-stock-hits-
Thanks for your thoughts fellow traders. 1294 slightly broken, but nothing significant. TA is no rocket science right:p.
ReplyDeletePretty good explanation about the iCloud and why it is important, especially good for someone like me who is not tech oriented.
ReplyDeleteWhy Apple's iCloud Announcement Matters
Good call, Wolfie. I know you had this call from a while back at 1294.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that this afternoon will be critical in seeing if a rally will emerge as there is no urgency in the move yet.
Might end up to be a consolidation day with no follow through either way. Which makes tomorrow even more important.
re Thor, iCloud: I will watch this one with great interest, both from a programmer standpoint, and a geek user.
ReplyDeleteWhile "clouds" have been advertised as the next big things for quite some time now, I feel someone has yet to come with a "breakthrough" idea to build on this vision of centralizing data and applications.
All bets are still open, which means big opportunities for anyone who thinks "out of the box":).
Manny,
ReplyDeleteThose NC articles are devastating and depressing. Confirms pretty much what has been happening for the past 30 years since Reagan got elected and now that the corporations have seized power and are the benefactors of the Money Party.
I found this explanation on the wiki depressingly accurate:
ReplyDeleteMarionette
We have become the economic marionettes of the corporations.
Ok. Gotta go back to my world of green little robots walking on clouds.
ReplyDeleteTrade safe! :D
Netflix down 2.63%. But NQ is up.
ReplyDeletere Denise, 11:51AM : thks, but too early to call it "good" no ?
ReplyDeleteAnd thks for the iCloud link. I will read this one.Very important to get different point of views coming from different observers (eg IT insiders, VS financial analysts).
Totally agree, Denise. Read Hedges' book, which is even MORE depressing (so maybe have a few drinks while reading), and that point gets hammered home even more. The corps have total control now, along with their political (and Sheeple) enablers.
ReplyDeleteThe elites won't be truly satisfied until they have it all, but what's interesting is "having it all" isn't really in their best interests in the grand scheme of things. Are as human beings just prone to destroying each other and ourselves?
Wolfie,
ReplyDeleteMy internal indicators are pointing toward a rally but a failure from these levels is not out of the question, either. 1294 is a good stopping point so we will see what develops from here.
I usually approach support numbers backward, if the internals are setting up then I look to see what supports are there as we all know the market has a history of false break outs.
Wolfie - well, you know how it is with Apple, once Apple decides to make something "important to the people", it normally becomes popular pretty fast. I'd imagine this is how Cloud computing is going to make it's way from business to home. They'll start with music and photo's, get their millions of customers on it, and then the rest is history. . . .
ReplyDeleteThere is so much noise these days created by entities that didn't used to exist (HFT, bots, hedge funds) that it is very difficult to sort through the signals.
ReplyDeleteDenise - sorry about that!
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteNothing to be sorry about, the industry has been changing for as long as I can remember, so it is either adapt or die.
TRE.to up 38%.
ReplyDeleteICan
Manny,
ReplyDeleteHere it is in a nutshell from Bill Black:
Bill Black - My Class, right or wrong - The Powell Memorandum's 40th anniversary
"August 23, 2011 will bring the 40th anniversary of one of the most successful efforts to transform America. Forty years ago the most influential representatives of our largest corporations despaired. They saw themselves on the losing side of history. They did not, however, give in to that despair, but rather sought advice from the man they viewed as their best and brightest about how to reverse their losses. That man advanced a comprehensive, sophisticated strategy, but it was also a strategy that embraced a consistent tactic – attack the critics and valorize corporations!
He issued a clarion call for corporations to mobilize their economic power to further their economic interests by ensuring that corporations dominated every influential and powerful American institution. Lewis Powell’s call was answered by the CEOs who funded the creation of Cato, Heritage, and hundreds of other movement centers."
Game, set, match. I do not know how any of this can be reversed with corporatists saturating government, and the media and the brain washed public voting for them and against their own self interests.
Denise - It'll take a complete collapse I think, something every bit as severe as The Great Depression. We see the cracks starting to form now, whether or not DC can plug those before the damn bursts is another story.
ReplyDeleteWhen my brother's father-in-law, who now lives in glorious retirement in a trailer in Florida and never made more than 50k a year (would have died without Medicare last year and his SS is a good chunk of his income) screams about the "socialist Obama" and how high taxes are killing America, not to mention parroting every talking point from Fox news, I know that until he and his type of mindset dies we will not see change.
ReplyDeleteDenise - don't you just love lazy thinkers? I have a ton of those in my family as well. I've often wondered why people will invest so much time and energy raging at stuff like that, but refuse to do even the most basic forms of education regarding finance and economics!
ReplyDeleteI also know another retired couple who were very well off until the stock market crash, (he was a senior executive) also repeat the same talking points verbatim.
ReplyDeleteAfter listening to them you know that they will never change their mindset even during a complete economic collapse. They would blame it on the liberals as they have been brainwashed to do.
Thor,
ReplyDeleteGood thing that most of the young people are too busy texting each other, watching sports on tv or American Idol to watch Fox news or we would have lost another generation. :-)
Before anyone gets excited, it was a joke!
ReplyDeleteMarket is still consolidating through lunch time so maybe this afternoon we will start to see something.
ReplyDeleteMy biggest fear is that this crop of young people will disengage entirely from the political process because they have learned young just how corrupt it is. How soon before we end up with a black market economy like Greece?
ReplyDeleteI agree, Thor. This will march on until the system destroys and eats itself.
ReplyDelete@Thor: I think that economy is starting to emerge here already, albeit very slowly.
ReplyDeleteBut here's the problem with that - all sense of community or linkage to each other breaks down in a "go it alone" type of approach. When will we realize that we "go it alone" culture is not one that will be pleasant for most of us?
BAC = 10.98.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteI know that most of the young people I know, i.e., children, their friends, family members, are pretty liberal, despite many of them being brought up in a very conservative area. And they will be the ones who will suffer or gain the most going forward.
Right now, many of them are just facing the realities of life; lack of work, jobs with no benefits, student loans. And businesses that pay them less for more work. But as a group they are better educated than their parents, so I hope that their standard of living doesn't decline too much from their parents.
Interesting little factoid from Apple WWDC conference, Mac OS sales growth is 28%, Windows OS sales growth is -1%.
ReplyDeleteNew lows. Large volume spike.
ReplyDeleteChinese Entrepreneurs Are Leaving China
ReplyDeleteI wonder what they know...
The stocks under their 200 ma appears to be very ominous. Chart at CA.
ReplyDeleteFrom Emmy's article:
ReplyDelete"And, from the look of things, it is not enough. The country’s wealthy are going on shopping tours for U.S. real estate and, if they have not done so already, are moving their families abroad. There has, in the last five years, been a 73% increase in Chinese investment immigrants to the United States. Countries, like Canada, are raising their minimum investment requirements for investment-immigrant candidates due to the sheer size of the tide of Chinese cash.
Chinese cash is largely responsible for the third wave of buying from Asia into Vancouver. In an “unprecedented” surge of business for brokerages in that city in February, Chinese buyers snapped up homes, townhouses, and condominiums as sales skyrocketed 70% over the preceding month.
As foreigners pour into China, China’s entrepreneurs are taking their money out. Which group do you think knows more about what is going on?"
Now we know why some housing bubbles are forming and why there is so much support for certain markets.
ReplyDeleteWolfie - iCloud sounds pretty damn cool!
ReplyDeleteEmmie - That article was awesome!!!
ReplyDeleteThis especially
According to a new study, almost 60% of China’s “high net worth individuals,” defined as those possessing more than 10 million yuan in investable assets, are either considering emigration through investment programs or are completing the emigration process. The survey, conducted by China Merchants Bank and Bain & Co., also reports that 27% of those with more than 100 million yuan in investable assets have already emigrated and 47% of them are thinking about leaving the Motherland.
Wolfie - with iCloud, you buy a new iPhone, input your iCloud login information on the welcome screen, and everything is automatically fed to your new phone over the air. All your contacts, your calendar, all your Apps, as well as all your music and photos, no more cables.
ReplyDeleteWhy do I get the sense that we're seeing the last gasp of so-called "global free markets" unfold right in front of our eyes? Everything is now so tightly linked with "hot money" derived largely from stupid policies combined with greedy stupid people to create mini asset bubbles all over the world as the elites try to one-up each other in getting "richer". It seems to me that this system, with big assists from very corrupt, greedy people, is eating itself rather quickly and is going to push as back to more local economies after some big changes and unrest. Am I off base here?
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like the rats are leaving the sinking ship, before their assets are confiscated or nationalized. Imagine a what a Chinese meltdown would look like in a land where fraud is endemic and there are few checks and balances financially and economically.
It could make our last meltdown looking like nothing.
Dow down less than hundred at it's worst but it feels so much worse than the numbers.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteI wonder how many of those "high net worth individuals" are members of the government?
It might be time to go long pitchforks. Could be a global run on them soon. ;-)
ReplyDeleteAnd guillotines.
ReplyDeleteWow, C just getting sucker punched. As is BAC. The TBTF Bailout Zombie Twins.
ReplyDeleteYet another astonishing chart on wealth disparity in the U.S. in comparison to other nations. But do most of our citizens know how to read charts?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/the-world-top-incomes-database/#comments
Sorry, Manny. I probably talked you out of a good trade.
ReplyDeleteNot at all, Denise. Although I do HIGHLY respect the opinions that are expressed here, I take responsibility for my own trades. I should have pulled the trigger if I really thought it was good time. Still think I'll get a chance on both in due time.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteThat chart illustrates that the conservatives have achieved 1/2 of their goal, which was to keep as much wealth for themselves as possible, the second half of their goal, the dismantling of the "welfare state" (SS, Medicare, Medicaid) because we can't afford them, is under way.
We can't afford them because of their unfunded wars, tax cuts for the richest citizens and corporations, bailouts for billionaires, and rampant fraud in our capital markets.
Bingo Denise. But are enough of the dazed and confused Sheeple paying attention YET? Me-thinks clearly not.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the Sheeple will still blame them "commie liberals" once they're (we're) all destitute? Probably so.
The fact that we are due for a bounce and it didn't happen is important to note. Of course, everyone now thinks that TAT will save the day which might be a self fulfilling prophecy.
ReplyDeleteThis is apparently what happens to corporate whistleblowers these days:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/corporate-police-state-cisco-enlists-prosecutors-to-impede-whistleblower-law-suit.html
Manny,
ReplyDeleteI think that many of them are following the Pied Piper Palin Bus, rewriting Paul Revere's history, and getting ready to vote Republican in 2012, because it is the right thing to do.
The rest of us are all pooping in our pants, looking in the couch for nickels and stock piling canned goods.
LOL Denise!! I'm sorry, but your post above HAS to be the quote of the year. Hilarious in an extremely morbid sort of way. Well done.
ReplyDeleteYears and years of idiots having multiple children has come home to fruition, me-thinks. Welcome to "Idiot Nation" + "Bailout Nation" = "The Bailout Idiocracy". Just stunning stuff to watch unfold. Nobody could have made this shit up. Nobody.
"The rest of us are all pooping in our pants, looking in the couch for nickels and stock piling canned goods."
ReplyDeleteLOL. I had to post that again for a good laugh.
What's the basis for a rally now? I mean, there have been several attempts now and all have been unsuccessul. The OBL, post-Mannwich top holds firm. How ironic would it be if that top held? Looks like a pretty solid call now.
ReplyDeleteEven TLT got spanked today. That worries me a bit. Where to hide? Under the bed?
ReplyDeleteAnthony Weiner, melting down.
ReplyDeleteMore men behaving badly. What a disappointment.
Can anyone tell me why these politicians do these types of things?
ReplyDeleteSo many careers ruined for nothing.
The need for adulation?
That giant whooping sound you can hear cross country is coming from the Republicans huddled in the capital basement.
ReplyDeleteDenise - was thinking about China on my way back from the gym earlier. Would agree it's the biggest Ponzi scheme that ever existed.
ReplyDelete@Denise: I think it's that and these folks just seem to have no self control whatsoever. I honestly think it's just narcissism and ego. Many of our so-called "best & brightest" are nothing but egomaniacs and sociopaths. It's a bit scary when you think about it.
ReplyDeleteMost of the politicians who do these things are men, by the way. I often ask my wife what it is women see in us. Most of us are quite idiotic, when you think about it.
It really makes me question their intelligence as well. Or is their urges simply overwhelm their intelligence? I don't get it. Why risk everything for such stupidity?
ReplyDeleteOr is the thought that if everyone is doing it, then nobody cares anymore?
Just more polished and convincing used car salesmen (my apologies to used car salesmen, as I do not mean to offend).
ReplyDeleteIt is so prevalent in government, business and society today, but I don't think it is any worse than in the olden day.
ReplyDeleteI think now it is just easier to out people. They hid JFK's extramarital affairs for years, that can't happen anymore.
It is just so creepy. At least his wife doesn't have cancer.
ReplyDelete"The reply, she says, came moments later. Email records provided to ABC News by Broussard show that at 3:08 p.m. on May 5th she received a message from anthonyweiner@aol.com, which is listed as an email address for Weiner on one campaign document found online."
ReplyDeleteHe didn't even try to hide who he was. Dumb, or wanting to get caught?
I always thought that the outing of Spitzer was politically motivated, but this does not seem to be. (not defending him or his actions)
It was no surprise that Arnold had a love child but this is a surprise from Weiner.
I'd tend to agree, Denise. Back in the day, this behavior was easier to hide. Nowadays technology only aids and abets this behavior, but it also aids and abets revealing it as well. Tech is a double edged sword in that way in allowing people in big numbers go running around saying and doing stupid things and having it discovered/reported in the speed of light.
ReplyDeleteBut knowing this, you would think that people would be more careful with how they use technology. Instead they are less careful, it seems. Go figure. Way too many people running around saying and doing stupid things every day now in very large numbers, and those at the top are no diffferent or better than anyone else in that regard, it seems.
Manny & Denise - I think there was, up until Nixon, an understanding between politicians and the news media. The media looked the other way on certain things. Think about this - there are what? two or three photos of Roosevelt taken in a wheel chair or crutches? My grandparents never knew that Roosevelt was disabled until long after he had died.
ReplyDeleteExcellent post from Invictus over at TBP
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/whither-and-withering-demand/
Tradermike.net
ReplyDeleteS&P500 next stop 1249. Also some charts- Rock's fav Tif etc.
Someone will make lot of money one this one: Long or short.
"Sino-forest battles Muddywaters head on". financialpost.com
Muddywater's Carson Block says he intends to hold on to his short and expects share price to go to zero.
Incredible amount of volume today.
But, RBC Capital Markets' Paul Quinn is supporting the company(he said he visited their operations in China and even talk to the govt. bureucrat).
Disc. No position. I am interested to know what will Canadian govt. do about it(if it is indeed a fraud). I am not saying it is. I have no way of knowing.
ICan
Incredible adventure/survival story from the Cdn northwest.
ReplyDelete"B.C. woman survives week on remote Haida Gwaii beach".
www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia
ICan