Hello I hope everybody had a good Memorial Day and I pay homage to all of the soldiers who fight and die for sustaining a just ideal, no matter what.
Well I'm checking a few more stocks but this ones with bullish potential. They are not the final list because I need to keep running tests to see if they can withstand a market going against them.
HERO TSYS MDCO JBLU MKSI JBL
These, plus the ones that I mentioned the previous post and maybe a few ones are going to be the ones to be checked closely to see how eager to outperform the indexes they are.
By next week I'll have ready both lists one with candidates probably going down and the bullish ones.
I will try to find the stocks among the universe that I study that can "disobey" the general trend as mentioned in previous posts.Of course I'm not claiming that I have solved my long dated problem about individual performance and general trend, but I can see where I'm standing at this point of my research.Will see.
For now will check all the stocks that mentioned during the past month and present a view of the posible outcomes for them.
Good luck
Dan
"What sound does a bear make when he moans?"
ReplyDeleteSkwizzzzzzzzzz
Yen and U$D both funding curriencies today. Wow the gap up!
ReplyDeleteICan
Ya ok. that wasn't a very constructive one.:D
ReplyDeleteEuropean banks are rallying, possibly helped in part by ongoing rumors about "loopholes", or at least "less tough requirements" (didn't check the details, which must be very technical anyway) in the "Bâle 3" upcoming regulation.
Meanwhile, the ship keeps sinking as is should, Greece is preparing for selling the furniture, and people starting to take to the streets of Europe.
Arf.. not sure which way we go from here. But probably has to be some hard negociations at some point. :s
" I pay homage to all of the soldiers who fight and die for sustaining a just ideal, no matter what."
ReplyDeleteDitto. We owe them lasting peace in the West. May they be happy and at peace, wherever they are.
Morning all. Home prices at a new low? No Problem!
ReplyDeleteRally-ho!
Rally being sold off.
ReplyDelete"Friday's Payroll report should be better than expected...". Trader Mark. www.fundmymutualfund.com
ICan
Good morning everyone. Finally back in the real world again and we have a giant gap up.
ReplyDeleteThis time the jet lag is working in my favor.
Fading the Gap this morning. Working out so far. Haven't done this in a while. Too good a setup today.
ReplyDeleteSomeday we'll hit THE bottom in housing, just not any time soon (sorry, Cramer). New lows reached according to Case-Shiller:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/case-shiller-national-home-prices-hit.html
Hey welcome back Denise;) Hope you've enjoyed Old but still Up Europe :D
ReplyDeleteGotta go. Trading hurts your coding...
ReplyDeleteSee you soon ;)
You gotta love the NAR's response to the housing numbers;
ReplyDeleteBasically, Case Schiller is now wrong!
Thanks, Wolfie.
ReplyDeleteGood to be back, but I am just catching up on my spread sheets and charts. Nice to be gone but hard to catch up.
Loved Spain and Portugal. I will do my post this week on what I saw and hopefully can post some photos as well.
@Thor: LOL. Of course it is! Never been a better time to buy. Meanwhile, I'm seeing even more pretty nice mid-range homes languish on the market around my area.
ReplyDeleteDon't know why the market thinks that the Chicago PMI numbers are something to rally about, they suck.
ReplyDeleteChicago PMI
From the Chicago Business Barometer™ Dropped: The overall index decreased to 56.6 from 67.6 in April. This was below consensus expectations of 62.3. Note: any number above 50 shows expansi
Manny,
ReplyDeleteWe came home to find a few more sales in our little area, one for a new home (tear down), the other was an older home on a nice lot. Also saw a few ginormous price reductions on Trulia.
The Boulder, CO market is having a lot of markdowns as well, the prime selling season is past and people who have to unload are slashing prices.
Never been a better time to buy! I will say one thing though - we ARE definitely getting closer to THE bottom. But the bad news is it could take a long time for it to hit and then bounce back up. We could well bounce along/near the bottom for years just like Japan has.
ReplyDeleteNice trade, Todd! Good way to start out the week.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteI think we are closer to the bottom, too, but I also think that we are not going to follow Japan's path. They are losing population, we are gaining through immigration.
The weird thing is that homes are still being built here and they sell for huge, huge premiums over the price of older homes.
ReplyDeleteTodd (10:33) - Good call, I hope it works out great for you.
ReplyDeleteMangy Mutt
@Denise: I think we'll see price slashing going on for a long time to come. In hindsight all the tax credit shenanigans did was delay the inevitable and suck in buyers at what were still quite inflated prices. I'm sure buyer's remorse has already settled in for many on that front.
ReplyDelete@Denise: I hear you but are we gaininig enough good-paying JOBS for those people to afford to put down fairly high down payments and buy homes in big numbers at THESE price levels? I think not but I may be wrong, of course. We likely won't be Japan but it will be similar in many respects and could be worse (or different) in the end in other respects.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteYes, jobs is the most important factor and it cannot be ignored, but there will come a time of equilibrium in the housing market. Some markets are worse off than others, but they were the biggest growers before. Except for maybe Detroit and a few of the rust belt cities.
I think that for people who HAVE to move, the price cutting will continue.
Even though I am a novice to the stock market, but even back in 2003 it was pretty clear to see we were heading for trouble with the housing market.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that the housing market hit a wall was not a surprise, but the length of time it took to reach it's bursting point was.
But I honestly do not think it is coming back anytime soon.
In order for people to purchase a house, they need to be able to take on debt, in order to take on debt people need a good job...UNLESS they are going to school, then they can take on as much dept as they can, on a precieved future income.
We now have 1000's of people graduating from college owing 10's of 1000's of dollars, but with no avaible jobs.
If these people are not going to be able to purchase houses in the next few years, then it is highly unlikely the housing market is going anywhere any time soon.
Mutt
People will flock to home bargains in the places that they did before, and some are finding that renting is still a better deal. My son rents a nice home that would be hundreds more monthly if he had bought.
ReplyDeleteBrutal commute in this morning, just now catching up on comments :-(
ReplyDeleteInteresting local report on housing - the CA market has started to bifurcate along East/West lines. The overbuilt areas inland, in places like Bakersfield, Fresno, Riverside, and San Bernadino, are still dropping (and accelerating) but the coastal areas, like SF and LA, that were already built up, and did not overbuild as much, are recovering.
ReplyDeleteGreat article:
ReplyDeleteAre Taxes in the U.S. High or Low?
Best points:
"By this measure, federal taxes are at their lowest level in more than 60 years. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that federal taxes would consume just 14.8 percent of G.D.P. this year. The last year in which revenues were lower was 1950, according to the Office of Management and Budget."
"Yet if one listens to Republicans, one would think that taxes have never been higher, that an excessive tax burden is the most important constraint holding back economic growth and that a big tax cut is exactly what the economy needs to get growing again."
I only risked enough to get my 1% of capital base with a 50% fill of the gap, Met my target and got out. First Puts I've bought in 2 years.
ReplyDeleteI think the next month or so is going to be the get in and out in the same day kind of trades for me.
This short term down trend channel on the S&P has me worried. Guess it needs to get to 1350 to make me believe there's a chance for another new Higher High.
"The G.O.P. says global competitiveness requires the United States to reduce its corporate tax rate. But the United States actually has the lowest corporate tax burden of any of the member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development."
ReplyDeleteDenise - 2012 is going to be a very VERY newsworthy year me thinks.
ReplyDeleteA person could talk about the Mayan Calendar and start drawing silly conclusions. Of course all the Mayan's predicted is that a new AGE would begin in 2012, not the end of the world. Maybe their magic star charts weren't a bunch of hooey :-)
Thor,
ReplyDeleteI have no idea what is going to happen but I think it will be quite interesting no matter what. Everyone underestimates Obama, over estimates the strength of the GOP.
What happened to last week's terrifying European debt crisis?
I am still in the middle of updating my stuff so I don't have a good handle on anything yet.
ReplyDeleteManny - Minny is very near LA's total drop in housing prices -
ReplyDelete36.7 to LA's 37.5
http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html?Home-Prices#category=Home-Prices&chart=CSMarchCities2011.jpg
I can't remember if I've asked you this before, but why so high I wonder? Did they do a lot of overbuilding there?
Excellent chart over at BR's.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/22-economic-charts/
From 1968 to 2008 ALL incomes gains went to the top 10% of earners, the bottom 90% has seen their income fall.
Oh yes, this is all going to end well . . . .
@Thor: Lots of overbuilding in the suburbs and exurbs here, for sure. And at the higher end.
ReplyDeleteManny - huh, I never knew that! I thought all the overbuilding was mostly in the sun states.
ReplyDeleteMost Major metropolitan area had some form of overbuilding. About the only place there wasn't any overbuilding is out in Rural America.
ReplyDeleteThat's has it's own set of issues.
Corey's thoughts on the Stock Indexes -
ReplyDeleteFor S&P500, bullish above 1340 close.
First day of the month Wed.
ICan
Thor (3:58) - It's ok the bottom 90% made up for all those losses in 2009 & 2010 & into 2011...Oh wait...Never mind, this is NOT goiging to end well
ReplyDeleteMutt
@Thor: Remember, the Twin Cities has the most amount of Fortune 500 companies based or located here per capita in the country, so there was (and still is) a lot of money sloshing around here that was also chasing smart and also stupid "investments".
ReplyDeleteAt first, I thought it was strange that so many big national and multi-national companies are based (or located here in a big way) but I have a theory on why they like being here, aside from the obvious one of an educated populace already here. Anyone want to hear that theory?
ReplyDeleteWhat's interesting is that smaller (in some cases VERY small), older, often completely rundown homes in some neighborhoods of the Twin Cities (the better ones) are seeing a bit of a renaissance in builders buying cheap from banks, renovating and either flipping or renting out. Smaller homes located closer to jobs, so not as much driving and gas usage. The shift makes a lot of sense when you think about it.
ReplyDeleteMannwich - Yes, I would like to hear your theory on why so many large companies reside way up there.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Mannwich - The missus and I went out this weekend to look at houses in this neck of the woods.
ReplyDeleteWe drove into housing developements that just stopped. There were a few finished housed and some of those actually looked lived in, there were lots that had foundations in place, but nothing else and a couple houses that had the frames and roof on, but clearly unfinished.
We drove into other areas and spotted notices on doors - We did not stop to read them, but are assuming they are either eviction or forcluser.
We saw several houses with no "For Sale"Signs, but key boxes and a fairly good amount of houses with for sale sign, that looked abandon.
Mutt
I hope nobody takes this the wrong way, but the culture here, even though I enjoy many things about it and there's an independent political streak, is a very civil, deferential, even compliant, bordering on downright passive one when it comes to following the official and unofficial rules that have been established. It's not necessarily a bad thing, as it creates a very civil, cordial, "livable" place to live, but what does a big company like more than a compliant, even passive, but educated workforce who falls in line and doesn't question things too much and does what they are told for the most part? Again, just a half-baked theory but I honestly think there's something to it.
ReplyDeleteIt's certainly not a super low tax environment here, so there goes that argument potential argument. It's also why a chuckle when I hear about MN not being able to "attrach business" because it's not a "business friendly" (meaning low tax, no regulation) environment. OK, then what are all these big companies doing here and why do we have such a "low" unemployment rate relative to most other states?
ReplyDeleteTyping Mannwich. Getting worse with age. My apologies all.
ReplyDeleteManny - that's an interesting theory, you live there, and I know you pay attention to these sorts of things, so sounds good to me!
ReplyDeleteI heard a piece on the radio this morning on my way in to work about the mythical "businesses leaving California". I'll try to find it, but it was a great piece, basically, tax structure and regulations are a much smaller factor than an educated workforce in large metro areas close to ports, and most importantly, venture capital.
And Manny - I think the powers that be use the "taxes in this state are too high to attract business" argument in every state. It's getting as old as the "cutting taxes creates jobs" meme.
ReplyDeleteInteresting theory and not being up your way, it is hard to say whether it holds water or not. Although, I strongly believe not just business but also government desires a complacent workforce (populace) that has passive tendencies.
ReplyDeleteThe two things areas of your theory I would like to poke holes in 1) Educations 2) Passiveness.
In most cases education is the key to a better life and I am not solely talking about a 4 year college education. The more educated the mechanic is the better mechanic he is, same with the plumber or Forest Service worker or house wife. The more educated you are the more you realize you are in control of most aspects of your life.
Throughout history the wealthy (Whoever they may be) have tried to keep the population un or under educated, because you do not want the people you are impoverishing to out think you.
So I contend that it may not be the education that business likes, but the type of education.
Second, the most industrialized nations on this plant come from areas that distinct growing seasons, so if you do not plant it, grow it and preserve it for the coming winter, you either starved or went and fought for it
MN defiantly falls in the four distinct growing seasons
Again I would not know because I do not live there, I am just trying to rebuff your theory :)
Mutt
Enormous volumes on the close today.
ReplyDeleteShameless plug for my employer :-)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/29/business/29exercise.html?_r=1&emc=eta1
Gas below $4.00!
ReplyDeleteYet ANOTHER dose of reality, which the markets seem to loathe. No worries, just buy the new bubble in stocks & commodities, the third bubble in the past three decades. I'm sure this one will end as well as the last one.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/financial-psychological-double-dip-real-estate-economic-news-will-feed-lower-home-prices-as-incomes-remain-stagnant/#more-4643
Or the last TWO, I should say.
ReplyDeleteThe double dip is a nationwide phenomenon. Actually, it is global and we are starting to see cracks in Canada and Australia and these places had bubbles even larger than the U.S. in some cases. Yet some markets especially in high priced states like California will crash. Crash is such a vague term so let me define. We already know that in the state home values are down in aggregate by 50 percent. Yet some markets (all have corrected) are still inflated. This is where we will see home prices crash. When I say crash I mean a decline of at least 10 percent from where we stand today. This is a large amount considering over one third of purchases are made with 3.5 percent down FHA insured loans. The drop is sufficient to wipe all equity out and put someone in a 5 to 10 percent underwater situation quickly if we factor in the selling costs as well. That is a raw deal no matter how you slice it especially when the underemployment rate in the state is still close to 23 percent.
ReplyDeleteThe above is from that post.
ReplyDeleteMore. Take a look at the last graph in the post. Now that is FUGLY.
ReplyDeletepicked the data above merely because it goes back to 1977. It is clear to see that this was the biggest bubble ever in the region but also the deepest crash. You see the early 1990s bubble but that is nothing compared to what we are going through. Keep in mind during that bubble pop actual real household incomes were going up. And you can see that home prices went up from 1994 all the way up to 2007. The dip in the early 1990s was minor. Then if you look further back at the 1980s you have over 20 years of psychological conditioning of how great of an investment real estate is in the Southern California area. Those days are over. Just like the double dip is shocking many this new reality is a game changer. No one ever said this housing correction would be quick. Four years later from the crash and we are reaching a new nominal low. How many more years do we need before the big news outlets connect housing to actual household wages?
Australia in recession? Here comes their housing crash?
ReplyDeleteAustralia's Economy Contracts in First QuarterBy REUTERS
Published: May 31, 2011
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LinkedinDiggMySpacePermalink. SYDNEY — Australia’s economy shrank 1.2 percent in the first quarter from the previous quarter, suffering its biggest decline in 20 years, after extensive flooding hit coal exports, but a mining boom is expected to help growth bounce back quickly this year.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/business/global/02ozecon.html?src=twrhp
Manny - You beat me to Australia! Dammit, we need to find someone who lives in Australia and make them our new friend :P
ReplyDeleteRock, you're close enough to count, what gives?
@Thor: Check out the article. Economists "expect" the economy to rebound the next quarter, which it may well do, but do we believe anything these people say or "forecast" anymore?
ReplyDeleteOn another note, it's saying I'm logged onto the site but I can't post logged in as Manny. Any idea what's up with that?
Manny - I believe this guy
ReplyDeleteCheck out the second link as well, the what he was saying in 2008. Does anyone know anything about this guy?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rip-reaganomics-revolution-1981-2011-2011-05-31?link=home_carousel
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-megabubble-pop-2011-here
He's calling for the next leg down this year. If he's wrong, I'll bet it's not by much. Just a matter of what KIND of leg down this becomes right? Shallow, or off another cliff. I know we're all kind of expecting off the cliff, but is there a scenario where we have a shallow dip?
ReplyDeleteGreat ones, Thor.
ReplyDeleteA matter of time, with the only questions being what triggers it and when?
ReplyDeleteTHIS is just nauseating. When are people going to wake the FUCK up?!? When?!?!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/the-continual-screwing-of-jefferson-county-alabama-20110531
Manny - no shit, but you know what? These people elected Bachus, if they're ok with it, then screw them. They get what they voted for. I know that sounds heartless, but hey, this is a democracy right? ;-)
ReplyDeleteThat's true, Thor, but that idiot's actions still affect the rest of us in some manner, even if not so drastically. WTF is wrong with people?! Are people really THIS cluesless, ignorant and just plain dumb? Wait, don't answer that question.
ReplyDeleteNeil Barofsky on Nightline right now saying people should "feel betrayed by our government" for leaving homeowners high and dry while the banks are doing better than ever. Saying it a bluntly as he can.
ReplyDeleteYep, just a matter of time before "e" & the "p" in "extend & pretend" expires.
People are waking up, we're not just seeing this reported on the blogs anymore. You know much of the MSM must be gritting their teeth having to report this shit too. I'm sure their corporate overlords don't approve, but it's either report the facts, or become even more irrelevant.
ReplyDeleteGREAT article full of good info on China
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8b198ae2-8b9e-11e0-a725-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Nt7SXKs4
Please respect FT.com's ts&cs and copyright policy which allow you to: share links; copy content for personal use; & redistribute limited extracts. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights or use this link to reference the article - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8b198ae2-8b9e-11e0-a725-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1NzrpKcSI
Whether China’s real estate market is a bubble that could pop, knocking out Chinese growth and shaking the world’s economy, is a question that is being asked by everyone from Brazilian iron ore traders to hedge fund managers in the City of London.
And while there is no consensus among economists and analysts over whether rapid price rises and a big construction boom do constitute a bubble, there is serious concern among some Chinese officials and recognition from almost everybody that the current levels of growth are unsustainable over the long term.