The agony continues

Hello everybody

The equity market continues their going nowhere really fast and I remember several weeks ago when talking about the conditions for a top to be set.
I mentioned people hugging each other in the streets, and I remember when the news of bin Laden being killed broke and all that photographs in the news.

Of course all that celebrations got me thinking that Sunday: could it be?...people are celebrating in the streets. I know, I know is not directly related with the false perception of a turnaround in the economy but at least they are celebrating on the streets anyways; so just the same final result, even though for an entirely different set of reasons.Could that be considered sufficient cause?.

It got me thinking: same final outcome but for unrelated reasons.Can have the same effect from a sentiment point of view in people's mind? (as if the news was related to the economy).

I doubt it strongly, but hey...all the celebrations and inmediately after that a top that lasted two weeks already have me wondering too if it's just big fish using the general public perception alone to play the unexpected card, withouth regard for how much correlated the logic under their moves are.

Of course all this moronic assumptions are entertained in my head when I'm just filling the gas tank or waiting at the supermarket's queue because I don't have too many options.

Still my preferred way to see things is through astrology.Is a lot cleaner and in this case don't need to fill gaps with some kind of defficient logic, just a climax is reached for whatever reason.That's why I prefer astrology anyday.
It's like a theater's play.People playing their roles according to some unknown script and being instrumental to the most probable final outcome.

Like for instance when the knowledgeable guy Mr Strong died (Federal Reserve in the late 20's) not saying he was a good guy just that he kept all that thing going on until he got sick and then died. Incompetence got a big bust afterwards.

Could the IMF's head demise be seen as a tipping point, if bigger problems are triggered for Europe in the near future, like Mr Strong death in the 20's was for America?

In my view, absolutely.They can looked like a small drop in a bucket but what made their roles salient for a future historian is the role they play at a very very precise moment in history, in order to get the ensuing result.

So timming is at least as important as incompetence around the decisions level for something bad to occur.
For that timming thing I choose astrology.

So they can not escape the timming design of things, they just play a role that they can not alter in a meaningful way (obtaining the opposite result of what is expected to be the likeliest result) and my secret view is that they barely have a clue of the role they are eagerly playing.


Regarding Rock asking or wondering to what I paid attention when I was talking about DECK past week is the same thing, for me just astrology.

Not that I don't pay attention to anything else.Of course I chequed free cash flow, debt, price-sales, and if I remember it revenue growth, and short float.

But the thing is, DECK is really, truly the most marvelous thing after sliced bread, seriously.It was at 0.85 cents by late 2002 and before I mentioned it in April reached almost $100.

Studying it is almost like poetry, in my geek view of the world.


So I got a great deal of respect for those companies. EZPW was 0.30 cents and now is at 30 bucks.

They just doubled AAPL performance, in less than a decade. And AAPL wasn't exactly shabby.

So is a lot more challenging trying to get a nice drop in one of this monsters than in a regular stock and a lot less expected by the general public.

If they act according to what I expect for example it tells me that maybe they are getting weaker and who knows, maybe they could be hinting an ending of an impressive rally or at least an unexpected correction. That's why I check them focusing on the downside.

For getting focused on the upside I personally prefer to watch 4-6 bucks stocks. Still don't have the time and means to get focused on the 0.40-0.80 cents that can run a nice decade.Step by step.

Dan