Anyway, I keep my shorts on. As it were.
This post is about IPOs. I don’t have much to say, but I’d like to point out two IPOs that have had significant publicity, and their performance on the first day of trading.
You can make your own conclusions from the charts. But to make sure I hit you over the head with the sledgehammer, see the breakout after the first few minutes.
Now, in the comment field below, let's see how you anonymouse tradours would trade this.
Have a great day. Go, Bucky!
In case you forget, don't trade Chinese stocks or RTOs. Bloomberg just had a vignette on them.
ReplyDeleteI found a fascinating article at
http://seekingalpha.com/article/248975-15-due-diligence-red-flags-for-u-s-listed-china-stocks
which gives some insight into a number of things in financial reports.
China specific articles include:
http://www.businessinsider.com/sec-in-massive-probe-of-chinese-reverse-mergers-that-have-cost-investors-billions-2010-12
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/11083003.html
Rock - The only thing I trade in Chinese is food.
ReplyDeleteI figure stay with what you know and I barely know anything about how the U.S. Stock Market works and they have laws that are supposed to protect me (queue in laughter) But what in the world would be my recource in China.
Thanks for posting and I will be out of the office today, but will hopefully get a chance to read the above link later today.
Mutt
"Get ready for QE3". Marketwatch.com
ReplyDeleteZH was first.
ICan
Morning all! Another sideways day on bad news I see
ReplyDeleteMe-thinks the main thing holding up this market now is the looming, and likely, prospects of QE3. Otherwise, this puppy seems ready to head south in a big way to me.
ReplyDelete@Thor: Waiting for QE3, not Godot, hence the limbo. The Benny Put is firmly in place.
ReplyDeleteSeeing lots of newly listed homes languish on the market here in my neighborhood lately.
ReplyDeleteManny - news in this part of the country is the softening high end market. Homes in the hills aren't selling like they were.
ReplyDeleteSimilar things happening here. Not surprising when you think about it, Thor. That's been long predicted by many (including yours truly) but is simply taking its sweet time playing out due to extend and pretend policies by the banks, who will simply drag this process out, while taking the free money from Benny & the Fed, so they don't have to take the write downs on their books all at once. This will only serve to make the housing market a zombie one for maybe a decade or more, IMO.
ReplyDeleteThis is good.
ReplyDeleteWhy the Rich Love Unemployment
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/05/mark-provost-why-the-rich-love-unemployment.html
It also explains why many corporate cultures today are rife with fear, loathing and paranoia. They foster and WANT this environment, as it keeps workers in line.
Yet, our property taxes keep going up in the face of declining home values, and they STILL can't fix any of the crater-sized potholes in the city. Can't find the money or raise taxes on the wealthy to pay for it so that our cars don't get ruined in the process (and thereby costing us even MORE money to fix), but CAN find the money to build a new billion dollar Vikings stadium. Priorities, people. Priorities. Are we clinically insane as a culture?
ReplyDeleteI've also noticed a slight decline in the cleanliness of our city parks and lakes over the years. A very slow, but noticeable decline, to this Mannwich, anyway.
The long, slow slide and TPTB hoping most people don't notice. That's the plan, folks.
On that topic of high end homes languishing on the market:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-24/greenwich-s-priciest-homes-languish-with-four-years-of-inventory-on-market.html
Wow, Greenwich's priciest homes have FOUR years of supply! Incredible. There simply aren't enough people who have anywhere near this amount of real wealth to buy up these homes, unless we look overseas to expand the market, perhaps?
ReplyDeleteChinatown Greenwich in 2020?
On the idiotic LinkedIn stock price:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-24/why-linkedin-bears-like-haverty-say-plunge-is-inevitable.html
More political theater? Timmy, of all people, defends E. Warren and openly mocks the GOP:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/25/geithner-slams-wall-stree_n_866770.html
@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteThanks for keeping my comment count up.
The LinkedIn stock price is ludicrous. I can't tell you how many invites I've refused over the years. Most were from people I definitely did not want contact with. Mostly it was out-of-work professionals wanting to keep their names in front of your face. Actually, I don't know exactly how LinkedIn monitizes its "service", but there are databases of resumes to be had for free.
I think I heard LinkedIn is selling for 180 times earnings.
A good place to start short-looking, for the M-shaped lower high. IMHO.
Rock - I agree, I've never personally understood the use of Linkedin. I don't use it, and although I have a good number of friends and co-workers who do, I don't remember anyone telling me they thought it helped them either keep or find a job. I certainly would never pay for their service.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that AIG isn't completely tanking now that the government is unwinding it's position. Of course 77% ownership isn't that far off 92%, still, looks like there are some investors who think the company has a future.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteI think Los Altos Hills in the Bay area has had 4 years' inventory for at least 4 years. (That's where Obama had his CEO's dinner).
Probably Thor would know.
But I wouldn't ever own a house in Los Altos Hills. Anyway, Bloomberg has had several vignettes on about the housing "glut"--still 2 million in inventory. They were saying that that number is down by half, compared to where it was. But the smaller houses are selling, and people are moving to rental property that is smaller. Nobody wants those 5 BR+ houses anymore. Nobody wants the heating/AC bills.
BTW, my electric bill here (including AC) runs about 400/month. That's about 300 US, +/-. 3BR, no AC in the kitchen/maid's area.
I agree, Rock, but think they make some of their revenue off of "premium" services offered to recruiters and then more revenue on job ads and other ads, but it's mostly a souped up version of a job/candidate/rolodex site if you ask me, so I have a hard time understanding just how much upside this company can truly have over the long term. Also, LinkedIn isn't a "FUN" site like FB where people waste hours messing around. It seems like a site where you're only on it for a few minutes at a time, if that. Along with MANY others, I would love to short this thing at some point. The question is when?
ReplyDeleteOoooh - Manny that's right, you're uniquely qualified to talk about LinkedIn. Great insights!
ReplyDeleteLet me know when you figure out the best time to short them, I might join you on that trade ;-)
Again, it's a decent little professional networking site, especially for recruiters and mostly HR/corporate recruiter peeps, who wish to easily reach other professionals (assuming that most are now putting up a profile there, some top level peeps who don't need this service probably still don't though), but I'm guessing that it's not so great for pure exec recruiter/headhunter types who value keeping their leads and candidate database a propietary thing?
ReplyDelete@Thor: Will do. I'm chomping at the bit on that one. Problem is, as we know, these stocks can stay WAY overvalued for much longer than we can stay solvent. ;-)
ReplyDeleteI do think that LinkedIn is potentially a game changer for the other job sites like Monster and Careerbuilder, both of which were on decline before anyway, except for the most junior level of jobs and candidates. LinkedIn could render these sites even more obselete.
ReplyDeleteManny - so recruiters use it as well? We mostly hire our staff here through recruiters, both internal (we have five) as well as externally.
ReplyDeleteMan - that 1 trillion in budget cuts is really going to hit the economy at a sensitive spot. Not that I'm defending our budget deficits, just that I think we're playing Russian roulette with the timing of the cuts.
ReplyDelete@Thor: Yep, at it's heart, LinkedIn was, and still is, primarily a jobs & careers, networking & recruiting site, recruiters do pay for additional access to features, so that is part of LinkedIn's biz plan.
ReplyDeleteDifferent industry groups can also set up "groups" for discussions on newsworthy items and events, topics, etc, and companies can set up their profiles on the site, and post job openings (a paid service) there. You can also post comments on your profile, kind of like FB and Twitter and follow people, companies and groups, so if they post updates on any relevant topic, you can see them. It has actually developed into a nice little site with some decent little intuitive bells & whistles, but it's hardly worth what the stock is trading at now.
What's also pretty cool about it is it intuitively links you to others that you might know on the basis of your existing contacts, so it's pretty easy to reach out to people and introduce yourself to people you may not know. For those who don't need to network and have been in the same job for a long time, however, I can see how such a service would be an utter waste of time, until, that is, one loses or leaves their job, which is why no matter how comfortable one may feel NOW, it can never hurt to refresh and hone those networks from time to time. As many are harshly finding now, the employment game can end rather quickly, harshly and unexpectedly, especially for those older employees who don't lack a specific, unique technical skill.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how many profiles on LinkedIn are accurate. I'm sure there's no one checking.
ReplyDeleteAlso, there's a profile on me. I can't read it but I'm going tomorrow to get one of the guys to open it up and see what they said about me.
So if you can put up a profile on somebody else, well, that does open possibilities, doesn't it? Might be worth paying for that.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteYou ever have any trouble "pasting" from the clipboard in this Post a Comment window?
Also, there's a profile on me. I can't read it but I'm going tomorrow to get one of the guys to open it up and see what they said about me.
ReplyDeleteRock - Nope :-)
On a lighter note, now that the shuttle is retired, there may be new technology coming from Consumer Staples sector:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkkOUPYNs7I
@Rock: I don't think you're supposed to be able to put up profiles of other people but I'm not entirely sure. I guess there wouldn't be anyone stopping others from doing that unless you caught it and asked LinkedIn to take it down?
ReplyDeleteRock - try this on for size!
ReplyDeleteMuch of this stuff is already here or very close to being here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38
For instance -
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_szcC81jXRE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFciaH_XAWs&feature=related
Guess with the space shuttle retiring it means the end of the most visible symbol of something running on Fortran.
ReplyDeleteTodd - HAH! :-)
ReplyDelete@Todd: There was a lotta ADA in it as well.
ReplyDeleteAn interesting note is that for the S&P 500, about 250 of the stocks are trading above their 50 day moving average. See Stockcharts.com $SPXA50.
ReplyDeleteThe trend is very choppy, but it seems that this indicator leads the index price. As of Friday, the trend is down, Today's results haven't been posted yet, but based on this measure, the SPY's got more downside to visit.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteYes, cool stuff. But stay away from letting your phone pay for stuff.
We did a special bluetooth solution with VISA and a phone app which would do the full VISA transaction through (I can't remember the name of the company that does the payment processing) (senior moment). We made about 10 BT terminals.
Nobody would guarantee the security of the BT transaction, and the security solution we chose was PKI.
Wait to get the chip implanted in your wrist. Then your son can't take your wrist to the candy store.....easily.....
Rock - We've been able to pay for things on our iPhones for a little while now. Lot's of companies offer it, can't think of what it's called off the top of my head, but I've seen it at starbucks, I think it mostly hooked up to their gift cards, but I know that the credit card companies are working very hard to get that technology out there to the masses.
ReplyDeleteAgree with you on security issues - I had one of those fancy new Debit cards you could just swipe in front of the terminal. That didn't work out too well. . .
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteSee how out of touch I am? VISA had decided back then that the security risks outweighed the benefits.
Anyway, the number of stocks trading above their 50 day MA went up 3.6% yesterday. The 3LB trend is still down.
The UUP will break out of ies up-trend range at about 21.7, so a couple of days of just flat will start the Bucky weakening again (the UUP is mostly against the Euro).
I'm going to lighten up my SDS tonight if the trend is still upwards. The trend range for the S&P is still in the down direction. The S&P has quite a long way to go to break out of its downtrend. For tonight, it looks like around 1339, and I don't think that's so likely.
I think today was a head fake to the upside. My guess is the Bucky looked at the weakside, but with the Euro in its sights, I'm sure UUP will move its trend higher. The Euro is so toast.
The weak bucky is good for multinationals making profits overseas, but makes us individuals poorer. So what the Fed has been doing it like a cruel tax on all of us. Taxationn without representation, for sure.
One more thought: With QE2 disappearing, the 10 yr yield will probably rise. That is likely to mean the home mortgage rates are likely to go up.
ReplyDeleteBecause housing prices are so depressed, and I'm not saying they won't be more depressed, I'm thinking that the housing prices are to the point where going long again makes sense. Housing in the US is way way cheaper than other parts of the industrialized world.
Buying a house now will not make sense if you're buying a depressed property,although the price may be tempting. Remember, that depressed price is because nobody wants that one.
Same as the stock market. When the upturn starts again, we want to find the stocks that have gone down the least, because those are the ones that will follow the trend upwards. Like houses. Buy one in an area that's turning houses over, where there aren't depressed properties. Stay out of Modesto unless your time horizon is looooooong.
I'm thinking of taking a ride back to the states and buy my barbecue sauce, and decaf coffee beans, and maybe a house.