The Absolute Worst Mother's Day Presents
What not to give Mom for Mother's Day
My Dad gave my mother a new toilet one year for her birthday.
Raccoons Invading Chicago's Lakefront
CHICAGO (CBS/WBBM) — Dark-eyed, wild bandits have invaded both the north and south lakefront, but officials are working to out-smart them.
As WBBM's Newsradio 780's Bernie Tafoya reports, the Chicago Park District tells says about 120 raccoons have been trapped between Belmont and Montrose harbors, as well as the harbors off Jackson Park.
"There's been some reports that they're living under docks and ransacking boats and being aggressive toward people. So obviously it's a public safety issue," Maxey-Faulkner tells the Chicago Sun-Times.
Photo Credit to Darkone
====================================================
I went to Costco Wednesday afternoon to pick up some last minute items before the weekend and to my amazement a tour bus was blocking the main drive in front of the store. Out of the bus came dozens of elderly Japanese people, cameras around their necks, not seeming to care that they were milling around between the bus and the entrance to the store so that no one with a cart could enter or leave. It was chaotic to say the least.
Cars were backing up down the aisles, people were getting frustrated, but the Japanese people had this look of sheer joy and anticipation, smiling, talking, but not moving very fast. Finally, they all managed to get into the store and they dispersed quickly. I spoke with the woman at the door who checks ID's and she said that tour buses were not that uncommon and the Japanese look for these things: vitamins, underwear & socks, snacks, cigarettes, and luggage while also sampling the food from the different carts. (my favorite past time as well)
And then they headed to the food court for some cheap, but tasty, American style lunch which is the highlight of their Costco shopping expedition according to the woman. Not sure how true this is, but the woman also told me that the Japanese do not have the variety of vitamins that we have in the states so they like to stock up and our prices are very good. It made my day to see how happy the normally reserved Japanese visitors were while shopping and eating samples and I am sure that Costco was more than happy for the business.
Contrast with my American tour group in New Zealand who couldn't wait to find the bar.
======================================================
Thanks for the reminder about Mom's Day :D
ReplyDeleteSP500 update
(just the first ideas springing from a quick spot at the chart, no time for further study)
* 1350 good resistance.
* if the index fails to take that line, I would aim for 1325 as the next target.
* if it breaks above 1350 then.. well good for him. Don't know where we go from there, if that happens.
Wow, risk back on, it looks like?
ReplyDeleteDenise - Hah, great stories! Sounds like your NZ your group wasn't much fun! We've been very lucky with our tour groups so far.
ReplyDelete$74.00 to fill up on my way in to work this morning. Anyone have a small, fuel efficient car I can borrow for a little while? :P
Manny - looks like it huh? I see a lot of pundits now saying we're not going to see $5 gas. That almost guarantees that we're going to have $5 gas!
ReplyDeleteDecent jobs report, it seems, but all is still not well in small business-land. Not surprising. All of the policies are favored towards the big company.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/survey-small-business-hiring-in-april.html
Exactly Thor, and maybe even within a few months.
ReplyDeleteManny - wow, I wasn't expecting that jobs number at all! Man, I can really notice it when I don't have enough time to read all my usual financial sites.
ReplyDeleteGood morning, all.
ReplyDeleteGreat employment report. Doesn't surprise me at all after driving around in Michigan yesterday.
In our little area there are two new homes being built, and two large total rehabs. We drove to another town for lunch and all along the lake shore (among the many houses for sale) were more new homes and rehabs. It was weird to see so many homes for sale and so much building going on.
Our trades people there are also busy.
ReplyDeleteWhen we arrived home, a sign had gone up on a house that had been vacant due to a death, announcing that a new home would be built there.
All anecdotal evidence to be sure, but I see activity that was not present last year at this time.
Thor,
ReplyDeleteNo, they were a lot of fun, actually. But we had a few who liked their cocktails.
So would a bad jobs report have also been good for the markets? Meaning more QE?
ReplyDeleteCEO pay never been better. But we must never, EVER, EVER raise taxes on any of these people to address our nation's long term problems. That's what Sheeple austerity is for. We MUST SACRIFICE, is the collective mantra, well, except for the "best & brightest" (and wealthiest) among us, of course.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/06/ceo-pay-high-pre-recession_n_858430.html
This can't be good for the Euro, can it? Maybe the Fed can bail out Greece too? Why not at this point? They're already indirectly supporting the Euro, are they not?
ReplyDelete•GREECE THREATENS TO LEAVE EURO AREA, GERMANY'S DER SPIEGEL SAYS
•FINANCE MINISTER FROM EUROZONE AND EU COMMISSION HOLDINGS CRISIS MEETING TODAY IN LUXEMBOURG
•MEETING AGENDA INCLUDES POSSIBLE NEAR-TERM DEBT RESTRUCTURING FOR GREECE
Euro cracking. Taking the stocks with it.
ReplyDeleteExactly, Denise. Maybe the Fed can bail the Euro so the dollar doesn't strengthen?
ReplyDeleteoh my
ReplyDeleteStocks are below the open.
ReplyDeleteEuro continues to decline.
ReplyDeleteSilver and Oil are going down, too.
ReplyDeleteIf Euro goes, it's game over for stocks and all other risk assets as well. Or should I say "when" the Euro goes? LOL.
ReplyDeleteEuro down + dollar up = DEFLATION baby.
ReplyDeleteAdd gold to that pile.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteThere is always a catalyst, but sometimes we don't know what it is right away. Remember the market has been going down since May 2. We'll see today if it holds or continues to break.
This could have been a mini-rally in response to the bte employment numbers and now the bigger picture is back again.
I think I have to look to ZH for a cutting edge daily exaggeration of what is really going on. I am sure that they will have an explanation for this week's apocalypse.
ReplyDeleteLast week, everything was tied to gold. Now it is the Euro.
Good point, Denise. Little picture duking it out with bigger picture every day, it seems. Yo-yo'ing a bit. And, remember, the jobs data point is a backward-looking data point. Maybe this is as good as the jobs situation gets in this recovery?
ReplyDeleteLOL Denise. So true. 10 years from now, ZH will still be prattling on about the coming "apocalypse", while life every else goes on.
ReplyDeleteGreece "threatens" to leave Euro Zone. That ain't never gonna happen. Too much Greek debt is owned by the EU central banks. It is just a bluff to get what they want.
ReplyDeleteGreece relies upon tourism for 17% of their economy. Are they going to risk that because people won't want to have any Drachmas of a bankrupt nation? And face ripoff currency exchange costs?
ReplyDeleteEuro continues to fall.
ReplyDeleteThe Greeks themselves do not trust their government, are they going to be holding a lot of money in Drachma's or Euros?
ReplyDeleteAgreed Denise. Merely a negotiating ploy. If they leave, others will follow and that's the end of the Euro and big-time rattling of global markets.
ReplyDeleteThe inevitability of a Greek Default by Floyd Norris
ReplyDelete"It was just a year ago this weekend that Europe bailed out Greece, amid much self-congratulatory talk. Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for monetary policy, said the move was “particularly crucial for countries under speculative attacks in recent weeks,” a reference to Spain and Portugal.
Markets — described by Anders Borg, Sweden’s finance minister, as “wolf packs” — returned to their lairs on the Monday after the bailout. The yield on three-year Greek government bonds plunged to 7.7 percent from 17.5 percent, as the price of such bonds soared 28 percent in a single day. "
Really great article. Makes ZH look like idiots for sensationalizing the issue instead of explaining it.
Euro continues to fall. 1.4404.
ReplyDeleteAnd I wonder how they can measure the Greek economy's output when so much is underground? Like Italy.
ReplyDeleteEuro 1.4376 going down faster than I can type.
ReplyDeleteHaven't had a major intra-day reversal from big-time green to red in a while. Might this be the day?
ReplyDeleteWow Denise. Some crazy shite right there. Similar to the downdrafts in PM's and commodities in recent days. What's that giant hissing sound we hear? The reflation air being let out of Benny's balloon? LOL.
ReplyDeleteIf you have access, a good one by PK today. The cries for austerity and a "stronger dollar" by the usual suspects now that THEY have been bailed out is laughable is not so damn sad and pathetic.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/06/opinion/06krugman.html?_r=1&hp
Did anyone catch the big GOP "debate" on FOX? I didn't but heard it a real knee-slapper.
ReplyDeleteRaising the margin requirement in Silver was just one of the things that they could do to pop that balloon, but they also knew that other selling would ensue to cover margin calls.
ReplyDeleteSo a speculator bought silver on margin near the top has to not only put up more margin to keep his position, his position has lost even more in value, which means more margin is needed.
So they are either sold out of their position by the brokerage firm into a falling market or they wire more money to the brokerage firm. Even once sold out, the customer still owes the brokerage firm the losses. So other assets get sold to cover those margin calls and losses, like other commodities, equities or even bonds.
Combine that with the Euro zone "crisis" and there is a double whammy.
Manny,
ReplyDeleteThe money quote:
"Do the scare-mongers even believe their own stories? Maybe not. As Jonathan Chait of The New Republic notes, the politicians most given to apocalyptic rhetoric about the deficit are also utterly opposed to any tax increase; they argue that debt is destroying America, but they’d rather let that happen than accept even a dime of higher taxes. "
Exactly, Denise. It's all so transparently and cynically self-serving. They are doing what's best for THEM and their immediate peeps, while telling the rest of US that WE need to sacrifice for the good of the country. Makes me want to hurl all over my computer when I see this stuff, to be honest.
ReplyDeleteWhich tells you everything you want to know about the Republican party in 2011 - they would rather drown America in debt, effectively destroying our economy than raise taxes on the wealthiest among us, corporations included. Ideology "Trumps" survival of the American Economy.
ReplyDeleteWhy not? Most of the congress is wealthy, their corporate benefactors are rich as Croesus, they will gladly destroy what is left of the middle class and turn all of us into beggars.
And people don't get that this is a class warfare battle? The ruling class who are members of the Money party against the rest of us. And we are losing.
Euro finally rallying a bit, along with gold, silver, oil, stocks.
ReplyDeleteI honestly believe that most people WOULD sacrifice something if they knew that our "betters" were doing the same. That's called leadership, folks, but the real entitlement class at the top can't seem to muster up the ability to show We the Sheeple the way. That's one way for the fabric of a society and nation to break down. One of many.
ReplyDeleteDenise - What has happened to silver this week has forced me to study margine and margine calls.
ReplyDeleteYour above explination helped soludify a couple things and brings into focus the how one margin call can beget another.
I know that taking margines can make a lot of money, but I am too much of a chicken to play with someone elses money and possibly having to owe them.
If I ever make money it will be all mine, but all the money I have lost so far has been mine and only my pride has been hurt.
Thanks for your insight.
Mutt
@Denise: History is all about "class warfare". And usually the class with the most money wins. Usually.
ReplyDeleteQuite the reversal in VXX today.
ReplyDeleteMannwich - No I have not watched any types of debate and refuse to.
ReplyDeleteI am just a little boat floating in the mist of a turbulent ocean and when we had the Dems and Repubs actually fighting each other over core beliefs, the ebb and flow of the tides was more even.
Now that we have Dems and Repubs fighting over rhetoric and only wanting to prove the other side wrong, we have rough and dangerous waters.
But we have the Sirens call of both sides beckoning us to their rocky shores and I do not believe the noise coming from either side.
So there seems little point in wasting time listing to the GOP or Dems flap their gums.
Mutt
@Manny, and Denise, re Greece restructuring:it seems that "experts" here in France are spending more time debating about what's the path of lesser pain for this restructuring, than wondering wether or not it will happen.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteEveryone has already sacrificed in the form of lower home prices, the double edged sword of historically low interest rates, job losses, home losses, not to mention those who lost everything and are bankrupt.
Where is the sacrifice of the Money party? More bailouts to help them, low tax rates to help them, and a soaring stock market which makes them (those who hold vast amount of their wealth in equities) even richer.
Except for Nicholas Cage, and the victims of Madoff, I haven't seen the Money Class loss very much at all. By all measures they are making more money than ever via salary, bonus and stock options, and they are paying less taxes. Like you said, "where is their sacrifice?".
"European voters are now saying "we have had enough of the transfer of risk and debt from the private sector to the public sector," said Irwin Stelzer, an economist at the Washington- based Hudson Institute, a research center. "The whole theory of the euro zone is a kind relief of democratic pressures; you do things in committees and the electorate isn't really involved. That game is over."
Manny,
ReplyDeleteYou forgot the French Revolution, the Money Party definitely lost that battle. But it does serve as a reminder to the wealthy what happens when people are pushed too far and have nothing to lose. That is why they allow money to be spent on social programs, to keep people from hunting them down and killing them.
Note that I'm basing this observation from what I update,my comment1:24PM: Note that I'm basing this observation on what I hear from the main French radio for economics and finance, not the 2 or 3 older and larger MSM.
ReplyDeleteAs food for news, the latter give us the latest scandals about some policians' abuses, or they expose families mourning their dead in whatever case is in the news (with all due respect), instead.
Mutt,
ReplyDeleteI observed this first hand when I was the head of a trading desk, I worked hand in glove with the margin manager to sell people out when they couldn't come up with the margin.
Trading on margin will destroy you faster than almost anything else.
That's why I tell people to stay away from margin or "ultra" ETF's.
ReplyDeleteWolfie,
ReplyDeleteGreat observation. They know it is inevitable. Now they are arguing about who is going to be left holding the biggest bag, from what I read.
Bingo Denise. You hit it square on the head for me. The real entitlement class doesn't feel obligated to sacrifice anything, for they've EARNED everything they've accumulated.
ReplyDeleteThe Lou Mish types....
ReplyDeleteSounds like Bill Gross having a change of heart about Treasuries? I hope so, go TLT, go!! LO.
ReplyDeleteLink:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-gross-says-may-change-mind-shorting-us-treasuries-if-potential-another-recession
Manny,
ReplyDeleteThe "Let Them Eat Cake" types, the Ayn Rand "parasites on society" types.
I'd pay money to see his chubby posterior running away from hordes of the hungry.
Bill Gross made a huge mistake by talking his book. He would have made a killing if his bet played out, but timing is more important than being right sometimes.
ReplyDeleteAnd Union members! More parasites on society.
ReplyDeleteMore from Reuters:
ReplyDeletePIMCO's Bill Gross, who runs the world's largest bond fund, said on Friday the only way he would reverse his "short" position on U.S. government-related bonds is if the United States heads into another recession.
Since the April 11 news that Gross turned more bearish on U.S. Treasury debt, reflecting his growing worries over the country's fiscal deficit and debt burden, Treasury prices have been soaring.
Unless he is hedged, Gross is losing big time!
ReplyDeleteAre Pimco's economists and strategists really that unfamiliar with our two sided economy that they thought we were going to have economic growth and no recession as far as the eye could see?
ReplyDeleteI see signs all around me that the wealthy are doing quite fine, but the other 300 million are not. And they are the ones that drive the real economy.
Maybe he and his friends don't get out much or talk to the little people.
And Mannwich is "winning". Thanks Bill! A temporary win for the little guy.
ReplyDeleteDenise said: "Maybe he and his friends don't get out much or talk to the little people."
ReplyDeleteI think you can say that about just all those (media included) that are holed up in the unreality DC-NYC bubble. Everyone THEY KNOW is doing better than ever so what's the problem?
Mannwich – Your point about” the class with the most money wins” is spot on.
ReplyDeleteNo matter what type of war on poverty we wage, we will always have poor people. I realize it is not as simple as stating this, but – If people refuse to learn from their mistakes or raise above the hand life has given them, then no matter what society does for them, they will never succeed. Therefore they deserve to be poor (I HONESTLY know it is not that simple)
However if someone chooses to learn from their mistakes, takes their lumps and tries hard they have the chance to become successful – And wildly so.
But most of us fall in the middle, we choose to work hard, so we can play hard, we decide money is nice but so is spending time with our family. We learn fire is hot, so let’s not touch it again, but we do not want to spend our time inventing ways to harness the power of fire.
Which leaves a few wealthy people, who are willing to pay people to harness the power of fire and we have the poor who sit around the fire amazed that they keep getting burned each time they touch it.
Traditionally the Republicans are viewed as the power of the Moneyed and Democrats as advocates of the powerless (Yea there is A LOT more to that too) and we need that balance. If the Democrats stripped all the money away from the rich and gave it to the poor, we would be left with a lot less innovation and more people burning themselves.
But if the Republicans were able to take make us all poor we would still end up with less innovation and we would be sitting around the fire burning ourselves.
To make things as pleasant for as many people as possible, we need to have an ebb and flow of the two sides, sometimes the Repubs win sometimes the Dems do.
However it seems like over the past 15 or so years the rich have been able to get richer at the expense of the poor (Which has caused more middle class people to become poor) at the same time the Dems have been able to make the poor richer (Which has caused more of the middle class to become poorer)
When we as a society have 50% of our population receiving some form of government subsidy, we as a society have a BIG problem.
But how do you solve that problem?
If you take all the money from the rich, there goes innovation.
If we allow the moneyed people to keep taking from us, we only become poorer.
And this Mannwich, is where I believe you are 100% correct – Without true and honest advocacy for the non-rich, “the class with the most money wins”
That is just my two pennies.
Mutt
It's all about balance, Mutt, which easier said than done. The quickest and easiest way for our betters to make sacrifice more palatable for everyone would be if THEY as a group led the way in their actions. So why not do it in some fashion?
ReplyDelete@dss,
ReplyDeleteWhat's your take on the market? Sideways, up, down from here?
ICan
A good one over at CR regarding the "dirty little secret" of employment:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/employment-dirty-little-secret-and-more.html
The powers that be actually LIKE unemployment to be somewhat high. And for obvious reasons too.
It's really on Denise's topic of our betters not really knowing many, or any, unemployed themselves personally, so what's the problem?
ReplyDeleteAnd I would add that many who HAVE jobs know people (in some cases MANY people) who are currently among the long-term unemployed and seeing that still makes them uneasy about it from their own personal perspective because deep down they/we know that could be they could be joining them at some point in the near future.
ReplyDeleteRobert Reich weighs in:
ReplyDeleteAnd the percent of working-age Americans actually working -- 64.2 percent -- hasn't improved. It's as low as it was in the depths of the recession. 13.7 million people remain out of work.
Hello Washington?
Even for Americans with jobs, wages are going nowhere. Basically, the only employers hiring are paying peanuts. McDonalds just announced it would start hiring big time.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/why-washington-should-pay_b_858537.html
Washington to the unemployed: Drop Dead
Denise (1:55) - Although I have yet to make any money, I have learned a lot over the past year and a half, but still need to work on the time.
ReplyDeleteMaybe someday all the pieces will fit together.
Mutt
ICan,
ReplyDeleteWe have a reversal day going so far, if we close lower than yesterday's lows then I would say we are going lower from here, and this market looks weak to me.
We have pretty far to fall to get to yesterday's lows, but the Euro keeps going lower so anything can happen.
I have not had time to do an analysis but I will do one this weekend and post it.
Mannwich (12:44) -"Haven't had a major intra-day reversal from big-time green to red in a while. Might this be the day?"
ReplyDeleteLooks like you just may be right...But we still have over an hour to go.
Mutt
Oil continues lower as well.
ReplyDeleteMutt,
ReplyDeleteDon't feel bad, everyone has a problem with timing. Even Bill Gross :-)
People might not want to hold positions over the weekend, either.
ReplyDeleteWe keep making lower lows, lower highs.
ReplyDeleteAfter such an historic rally, I fail to see the logic of jumping into risk assets NOW, but I could well be wrong, of course. Balancing the risk/reward, it just doesn't make any sense to me given the bigger picture (which I know often doesn't matter to the markets until it does)......
ReplyDeleteMy goodness you people are chatty today! :-)
ReplyDeleteThor (3:10) - You just be quite over there.
ReplyDeleteMutt
@dss,(2:40)
ReplyDeleteThanks
Mannwich,your 2:48
I feel the same. No one likes deflation - not even Govts. China and India. But with the end of QE2 coming up in June, I am on the sidelines except some TRP.to - utility.
ICan
Bloomie to lay off 4,200+ teachers in NYC. I'm sure this will stimulate the NYC economy, but who cares, that city is only for the rich and their servants anyway.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/06/nyregion/bloomberg-budget-will-seek-400-million-more-in-cuts.html?hp
Manny,
ReplyDelete4200 teachers? OMG! That is shocking.
@Denise: A large amount via "attrition", but, yes, it's very shocking. What's even more shocking (and revealing about us and our priorities) is that this kind of news is basically met with a collective yawn.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure that kind of thing does wonders for morale for those teachers that are left behind and not laid off. The stomach punching of the working class continues.
ReplyDeleteOnce again, we are undermining our futures to pay for the sins of the most privileged among us.
ReplyDeleteAnd the class sizes, too.
ReplyDeleteYep, and I noticed they are opening several "senior centers", despite these teacher cuts, in NYC. I wonder why that is? Might it be because seniors vote?
ReplyDeleteManny:
ReplyDeleteBack to your "dirty little secret":
Actually it really isn't much of a secret that Wall Street and corporate America like the unemployment rate to be a little high. But it is "dirty" in the sense that it is unspoken.
Higher unemployment keeps wage growth down, and helps with margins and earnings - and higher unemployment also keeps the Fed on the sidelines.
Yes, corporations like to see job growth, so people have enough confidence to spend (and they can have a few more customers).
And they definitely don't want to see Depression era unemployment - but a slowly declining unemployment rate (even at 9%) with some job growth is considered OK.
And it keeps the workers that have jobs scared, working longer hours for the same pay, and compliant.
ReplyDeleteWhat's not to like?
@Manny,2,49PM:"Balancing the risk/reward, it just doesn't make any sense to me given the bigger picture (which I know often doesn't matter to the markets until it does)......"
ReplyDeleteMy opinion too. That's why I was surprised (well, almost "shocked" in fact) to hear that BR was going 90% long...
Wolfie,
ReplyDeleteIt startled me, as well. The question is "long what?"
Exactly Denise. "Long what" and "NOW"? Sure we could go higher, and maybe a lot higher from here for a little while, but the risk/reward just doesn't make any sense for someone like me who doesn't trade often. Seems fruitless to try and make a few pennies before the roof caves in again.
ReplyDeleteWhenever I meet people with no experience in the markets, who talk about going long now, I feel for them. Of course, I give them my humble warning against it.
ReplyDeleteI fear many individual investors who are entering from now on are buying their ticket for a painful and long-lasting "bag holder" experience.
@Denise,4:01PM: Are you asking "what kind of investment" ? in which case I have not even asked myself the question, I assume he's talking about stocks.
ReplyDeleteOr more probably you're wondering what stocks? If so, I don't think the detail is relevant. If we're headed for a 2007 style slide down, it doesn't matter what you're holding right ?
Wolfie,
ReplyDeleteYes, that is true. I do not see that we are going there, I think what might happen is more like a 2007 top, one of Rock's M's. A high, a sell off and then a test of that high.
This is where it gets a little tricky.
The broad market as a whole as measured by the NYSE has not broken out of it's 2007 highs.
DJIA, S&P 500, COMPQX, NDX are all below 2007 highs.
R-2000 has barely broken out to new highs.
So actually, we are in bull cycle within the larger bear market rally.
It is late in the game, but obviously not too late for some.
Wolfie - I think I would have to agree with you at this point. If I were trading right now, I'd definitely be mostly cash. As much as I hate to admit it, I think I'd sit the rest of the year out to see where things are going to land.
ReplyDelete@Manny,4:05PM: "the risk/reward just doesn't make any sense for someone like me who doesn't trade often"
ReplyDeleteI think I see what you mean. And I share this view, but maybe that's because I'm biased towards the crash scenario.:p
However, risk/reward is, by its very nature, just the result of everyone's opinion on the market.
ReplyDeleteEg, whether a casual investor or a very active one trader, one may reply that THEIR target to the upside, far outweighs their limit for the downside.. therefore their own risk/reward is reasonable, or even great.
What's confusing is that he would be right in his claim. :s
@Denise,4:24PM:"So actually, we are in bull cycle within the larger bear market rally."
ReplyDeleteThat's what I see on the monthly, weekly and daily charts indeed. Seriously, I will share a chart of the SP500 in these 3 timeframes, sometimes
From my window, the rally from the March2009 looks eerily similar to the one from Sept1998 to March2000.
ReplyDeleteWhat's more, on the weekly, the index is forming the same RSI divergences as those printed in the 3 last legs up leading to Oct 2007. Which suggests a multi year top may happen before the year ends.
Thor (4:26)- I plan on being very selective.
ReplyDeleteWhen you and I first met over at TBP, we were both very much Noobs, (I can not speak for you) but I figured it was sink or swim time.
We could give our hard earned money to a “Money Manager” “401k” or “Retirement Fund” and hope for the best…Although in reality, I think we knew no matter what we choose our money would eventually be taken from us.
So why not try and gain some control over those losses and decide for ourselves where and what might be the best investment opportunity.
Although I have made back a tiny weenie bit of the money I have lost, I have for the most part learned to stop un-necessary bleeding and come within a breath of actually make a real profit and pulling even.
I think both you and I can see things much clearer now then two years ago, but when you say “I think I'd sit the rest of the year” That is were we differ a little.
By NO means do I think I will make a ton of money, but I plan on watching the patterns and trying to gain a better understanding of the lessons learned and hopefully make a least a little money.
Mutt
Finally, to follow up on your observation @4:24PM:"I think what might happen is more like a 2007 top, one of Rock's M's. A high, a sell off and then a test of that high. ".
ReplyDeleteGiven my aforementioned opinion about what's coming, I think it may happen somewhat like what you say.
And since we've come to know by now that this market can never go down, I'll dare be even more optimistic: we can "imagining" breaking through the previous high, and end this ride somewhere in the 1400s. Last 3 legs up, like in 2007 indeed.:)
@Mutt,4:58PM: I think one can trade even in this market indeed. Note that I mean "trade", not "invest".
ReplyDeleteMaybe Thor is more of the "investor" type, while you're more actively trading, with stops and all that stuff.
Just my 2 cents. Ah. And Thor owes you a coffee.
Ok. Time for some reading, before a good night of sleep, with dreams of a SP500 breaking 1400.
ReplyDeleteWell, I think it would be nightmares in fact.
Good night all ;) See you soon.
Mutt - True words! One of the things I've learned most about myself and trading over the last few years is that I am a very conservative investor - I'm very comfortable with less risky investments so my comment about not trading for the rest of the year was for me specifically. Most of the traders around here I think are more than skilled and disciplined enough to trade in this kind of market. For me though, too much risk, knowing what's going on in the economy and especially with an idea of how bad the next crash is going to be.
ReplyDeleteNice - I see Oil is continuing it's slide!
ReplyDeleteThor - It is great that oil is coming back down to a more realistic level...But I just FILLED my freaking tank :(
ReplyDeleteMutt
Wolfie,
ReplyDeleteEveryone is expecting a crash, so how likely is it to happen? Even the 2007 meltdown took 16-17 months from top to bottom.
@Denise, from yesterday 8:23PM: "Everyone is expecting a crash, so how likely is it to happen? Even the 2007 meltdown took 16-17 months from top to bottom."
ReplyDeleteObviously, you're making contrarian observations here.
As far as I'm concerned, I have somewhat left this contrarian tool behind me, some monthes ago.
Main reason is I don't think it has ever helped my trading decisions in a good way. Maybe that's because I don't understand this theory well.
ReplyDeleteBut I think the problem is that for defining a contrarian view, you need to be able to identify the mainstream view. And I doubt this can be achieved.
Eg, your statement that "everyone is expecting a crash": I'm not sure that is correct. There are no clear numbers to support or invalidate what is the mainstream investors view.
Wolfie,
ReplyDeleteI was being facetious. It was not meant to be a serious comment. How could it be a "crash" if it took 16 months? (to me a crash is more like 1987 or the flash crash)
You only need look at ZH and it's message boards to get a sense that the world is coming to an end and a crash in gold, silver, stocks, oil, and the euro is imminent. Not serious people saying crazy things.
Which is not to say that a crash could not occur in tomorrow in any number of things. :-)