Morning all! With all of the recent wrangling over our current corporate tax rate being "too high", this article by Chuck Marr at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities caught my eye over the weekend. Apparently the corporate lobbyists whores, I mean, hordes, are back at it again pushing for a temporary tax holiday for overeas corporate profits as a way to supposedly "stimulate the U.S. economy" and "create jobs" (in the U.S. I would presume?) despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Marr calls it a "battle of influence vs. evidence". Sadly, it seems we get a lot of that in this country this days with influence almost always coming out on top in blowout after blowout of epic proportions.
In the post, Marr takes a look at the last time such a tax holiday was passed, in 2004, and how that worked out for the U.S. economy and job creation fronts:
A similar tax holiday enacted in 2004 proved to be a complete policy failure. Its backers claimed that firms would use the repatriated earnings to invest in U.S. jobs and economic growth. Instead, they mostly used the money for purposes that the tax-holiday legislation had sought to prohibit, such as repurchasing their own stock and paying bigger dividends to their shareholders. Moreover, many firms actually laid off large numbers of U.S. workers even as they reaped multi-billion-dollar benefits from the tax holiday and passed them on to shareholders. To cite just two examples, Pfizer — which repatriated around $37 billion in foreign profits, the most of any firm — eliminated around 10,000 American jobs in 2005, while Merck repatriated $15.9 billion and announced layoffs of 7,000 workers in 2005. (These layoffs cannot be attributed to general economic weakness: they came at a time when the U.S. economy was growing significantly and adding jobs.)
I highly advise everyone to go read this post in its entirety and draw your own conclusions. However if it's quite obvious that these temporary tax "holidays" serve to do the exact opposite of boosting the economy and creating more jobs, how can proponents of it keep trotting out the same tired old, and wrong, arguments in favor of them with virtally nobody in power pushing back and calling them out for such blatant dishonesty? Or do silly, stubborn little things called "facts" no longer matter if one has enough money, power, and influence? Or have they ever mattered?
Risk-off day.
ReplyDeleteQE3 or deflation.
For silver charts - Fibo #s - Corey at http://blog.afraidtotrade.com
ICan
Inflation a bitch but so is asset deflation. Been waiting for this for a while now. Was/Is inevitable, no?
ReplyDelete@Jeff,
ReplyDeleteSomeone please wake up real-estate market in Vancouver/Canada(in general).
"Canadian building permits soar to 4-year high in March" -Vancouver Sun.
ICan
I have hard time understanding how a country could go bankrupt? Don't they have assets they could sell to fullfill their obligations or they could get away with it.
ReplyDelete"Some German politicians are calling on Portugal to sell its own assets, specially gold before the govt. gets the bailout funds". - from businessinsider.com/before the market opens thread.
ICan
Morning folks - awesome post Manny, can't wait to read it!
ReplyDeleteGas is now $4.45 :-(
ReplyDelete@Thor: Wonder what Mish thinks about this?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/06/business/06motors.html?_r=1&hp
On your topic of gas - I've never seen my Sox ticket sales so soft in any of the years my bro and I have owned them. 3 of 4 games went unsold this week, even at dirt cheap prices well below face value? Canary in the coal mine? People running out of discretionary cash (and credit) finally? Just something to ponder.
I have a nagging suspicion that without fiscal intervention by the government, this recovery is going to peter out. The Fed can/will only do so much. All this "austerity" at the local levels, combined with rising gas and food prices going to snuff out this recovery, which is going to make next year, an election, one giant circus (and not in a good way). Just my two cents.
ReplyDeleteThis is what I'm talking about. The GOP knows that forcing spending cuts will indeed tank the economy going into '12, an election year. Don't think they don't know this and that this isn't the plan, so they can then blame the Dems and Obama for the economic downturn, and then position themselves as the solution, so that once back in power again they'll resume their spendings, but with the give aways instead going to big corporations in lieu of the further impoverished, continually powerless, divided, clueless Sheeple who continue to vote for their own demise. It's coming.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/boehner-says-no-debt-ceiling-hike-without-real-spending-cuts-and-budget-reform
A couple of real ominous signs for the economy (and markets, eventually)?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/clear-capital-home-price-index-shows.html
Really good post today Manny - That article was brilliant! I think Americans are finally waking up to what really is going on with "free trade".
ReplyDeletePR disaster on OBL story. Why is the Obama admin in a defensive mode over the details of the operation i.e. if OBL was unarmed. Western press are to blame for playing right into 'terrorist" hands.
ReplyDeleteI think they made a right decesion by not releasing his photo. But Reuters bought pictures of OBL son and two others' from some official in Pakistan - Guardian published them. What does Guardian gain from that?
The real issue of the day is security from mad-men and their mad ideology.
ICan
I agree, I Can. It's the right thing to do. I think everyone should move on. The OBL chapter is closed by his market top is not. Yet. LOL.
ReplyDeleteAgree Thor. "Free" market is hardly "free" for those making paltry salaries and substituting them with cheap credit.
ReplyDeleteOr should say "not so cheap" if one is using a credit card. "Easy credit". How about that?
ReplyDeleteI hear the unemployment numbers this morning - wasn't that number just below 400K a month ago? Dollar falling, oil through the roof, you can't blame a person for feeling like we've been here before.
ReplyDeleteYet here we have the market off it's lows for today
ReplyDelete@Thor: Bernank Put or expectations of more QE shenanigans? Remember, everything is now "good" news for the market. Until it isn't. Similar things happened in the prior two bubbles too.
ReplyDeleteFeels like '08 to me, Thor. Or a variance of it. That's been my premise for a while. The unreality of it in the market is similar too.
ReplyDeleteManny - it's so hard to really see clearly right now. Gas prices going up, and unemployment also going up, GDP stalling, but tax revenue and gas consumption are up. I've been wondering how much of that increased tax revenue was caused by improving economic conditions, rather than taxes paid on investments.
ReplyDeleteOil down more than 6%, dare we hope the top is in? I doubt it :-/
ReplyDelete@Manny,12:08PM:"A couple of real ominous signs for the economy (and markets, eventually)?"
ReplyDeleteOminous indeed.. :(. Maybe too early to speak, plus I'm not an "expert" in economics (thanks god), but QEs are falling short of their stated goal so far:
* so much for it fueling the economy. At least not population's economy, as can be seen by latest unemployment trends.
* this cheap money is certainly going somewhere, and that's not in your pocket obviously.
* however,you still get to enjoy some of the fruits of these QEs, every time you fill your car and other basic needs. Admittedly, that's not the most enjoyable part of it..
Looks to me like Bernanke may be on his way from "Time Person Of The Year 2009" to "Wost Wanted Leader Of The Decade".
ReplyDeleteTypo:"Wost Wanted Leader Of The Decade".
ReplyDeleteMeant "MOST Wanted Leader Of The Decade".
Wolfie - wise word re: your 1:45
ReplyDelete@Thor:Thanks.:)
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, was just popping briefly. See you at SP500 1330, happening tomorrow, hopefully.:D
Absent further fiscal stimulus by the U.S. and other nations, this thing is coming down again. Maybe Europe and China first, but then it's us. Question is when? Like Marshall Auerbach wrote the other day, much of it self-imposed too. Won't be pretty when the Sheeple wake up and realize that bailed out the bad actors at the expense of everything and everyone else.
ReplyDeleteManny - I'm thinking along similar lines, it starts in either Europe or China and spreads. Greece or Portugal could be catalysts. Can't wait to hear from Denise on what it's like there on the ground!
ReplyDeleteBR is still fairly bullish though, that's something to think about.
ReplyDeleteWOW - Look at oil collapse . . . . -9% qualifies as a collapse right?
ReplyDeleteCould it be that the price of oil has risen so much the last few months because speculators were betting on a stronger economy going forward? And that it's now collapsing because those very same people are now realizing that their bet was wrong and so are closing those positions?
ReplyDelete@Thor,
ReplyDeleteOil seasonality too. Buy Feb. Sell May and buy July, sell Oct.
But also because of bad numbers out of the U.S., China, India raising rates, QE2 ending?
What could cause oil to go up? But you never know. More printing by Japan?. Can China and India afford deflation?
Manic market? Only market movers know.
ICan
Quite the selloff today. Wow. OBL Top lives onward.
ReplyDeleteMy TLT continues climbing too. Nice.
ReplyDeleteWow! Now that's a selloff! Ready to land ? Let's see if 1330 holds.
ReplyDeleteIndicators are in tune with the selling, on SP500 10min charts. No signs of divergence that would hint at this move being overextended.
ReplyDeleteLooks like an orderly mess for the moment.
If 1330 doesn't hold, we've got the usual suspects:
ReplyDelete* 1325
* then 1312.
Looking at the broader picture, we've got a very important up trendline: supported the trend twice already, in the week of August30th around 1040, then again in the week of March14th around 1249.
That one must not fail. Still some points below, currently around the 1303 line.
Gotta go. See you tomorrow all;)
ReplyDeleteOne year anniversary (May 6th) for last year's flash crash approaching. Eerie.
ReplyDeleteThe million dollar question though, is will the decline in oil continue, or is this just a little bump on our way back to $145?
ReplyDeleteI think the move in commodities is a harbinger of thigns to come for all risk assets.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/05/commodities-tank.html
The next crisis isn't housing (obviously, although that slow circling of housing prices down the drain doesn't help), but in the sovereign, which was both predictable and predicted by many people, although apparently "nobodies". Getting closer to the excrement finally hitting the fan, and even more austerity for the global Sheeple now that the elites have been bailed out and took everything that wasn't nailed down.
ReplyDeleteManny - on commodoties though, don't you think if oil, and equities tank again, that people will rush back into Gold and Silver? All that free money has to end up somewhere, I just wish it would stop ending up turbo charging the price of things I need :-/
ReplyDeleteJeff(7:40)
ReplyDelete"Took everything that wasn't nailed down".
Wow, that was a joke re police corruption in India.
ICan
Chindia would love to buy cheaper commodities. Why buy oil at $115 when they can buy at $85 or cheaper mines.
ReplyDeleteWhat will they do with all that fiat money?
ICan
Frontline documentary:
ReplyDelete"Fighting for Bin Ladin".
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/fighting-for-bin-laden/
ICan
@Thor: Perhaps, but if some of this unwinding is due to the loss of "liquidity" (meaning no more QE-driven carry trade), the perhaps that "money" disappears entirely like the last time in what is a deflationary event, and Benny's worst nightmare? I see everything deflating together again like the last time, or similar to, once the Fed takes its foot off the gas pedal and global fiscal austerity on the Sheeple takes hold.
ReplyDeleteManny - I see your point!
ReplyDeleteIs it just me, or does Huckabee look a little bit like Gomer Pile?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/54397.html
We have a decent Governor for a change.
ReplyDeleteThe 39th, and 34th, governor of California was making his first trip to Los Angeles since being sworn in, for an evening speech in February to the city’s Chamber of Commerce, and a swarm of reporters was waiting at Terminal A of the Bob Hope Airport in Burbank. Edmund G. Brown Jr. — he has always preferred Jerry — arrived from Sacramento not on a state aircraft (and certainly not a private jet, as was the preference of his predecessor, Arnold Schwarzenegger) but aboard Flight 896 on Southwest Airlines. As Brown walked off the plane and into the terminal, he was essentially alone, save for a few police guards who hung off to the side. There were no press aides, no advance staff, no speechwriters, no policy mavens; in short, nothing like the bustling entourage of self-importance that typically buffers a chief executive.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/08/magazine/mag-08Jerry-t.html?_r=1&pagewanted=1&hp