Hello everybody
I was writing and becoming philosofical about the gilded era and pendulums and I run into this article about QE2 and their myths according to the author.
Regardless mi opinion I prefer to post his point of view, is an interesting take particularly about shaping expectations which is the crucial part in my perspective regarding economy and more clearly in financial markets.
Instead of considering mathematics the way to get the deepest understanding I'm inclined to trust more (if possible) to what part human behavior (emotions) play in the financial picture.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/economy/mythbusting-taking-on-the-three-biggest-cliches-about-qe2.html
Regarding the equity markets I'm just waiting to see what happens, if any, around nov 17.
I didn't change anything for the time being but if it fails to break 1230 by next Monday-Tuesday I'll be out until it resolves.
Trade safe
Dan
Risk on!
ReplyDeleteWOW Gold, Cotton, Sugar!
I Can
I am adding to MOTR today.
ReplyDeleteA couple more days like this, it will be at full position.
It's relative strength is (WOW) .90!!!!!
Macro Man blog - today's read is good. Pay attention to Spain.
ReplyDeleteI Can
So I thought the down dollar was supposed to make US products cheaper overseas.
ReplyDeleteI make my own salsa. You can't get fresh salsa here, so I make my own out of tomato, onion, cilantro, etc. Like the hispanic burrito shops, which Thor probably knows well.
Anyway, I went to the market to get Tostitos corn chips. The last time I bought them, a couple months ago, I paid $6.95. Today they were 10.95.
Over the last couple months, the dollar is down.
so much for selling our stuff overseas.....
@Rock: Perhaps food is one of the exceptions, with prices going up everywhere due to the U.S. flooding the world with greenbacks?
ReplyDeleteTime to load up on some commodities ETF's? This one seems so obvious that it feels like something else might happen. Or am I outthinking things here (again)??
ReplyDeleteover-thinking, I should say.
ReplyDelete@Jeff,
ReplyDeleteIt's not just the U$D, it's the Yen carry trade, and the Euro, and the Chinese not wanting to appreciate the Yuan. It's all about currencies.
U.S. and Japan are not stuck in deflation when Ems are inflating with the Caryy trade money. Lot of commodities are just speculation - supposed demand coming from Ems(except may be Cotton this year - due to bad weather - El nina).
I donot know how long this madness wil go on.
I Can
^ are^
ReplyDeleteRock,
ReplyDelete$10.95 for Tostitos? That's crazy!
The Mexican Grocer
Great point, I Can. A race to the bottom in currencies. This can't end well for the global masses.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteWe just stagger between this crisis and that crisis, but as long as the markets are supported it doesn't matter.
Morning all!
ReplyDelete@Denise: Is crisis arbitrage the new norm?
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteI think that there are huge bets out there based on just that theory.
I'm sure either way the likes of Goldman will come out even richer for it.
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised GS hasn't taken itself private by now. You'd think with all the bad PR they would want to.
ReplyDelete@dss
ReplyDeleteYes, 10.95. It's the big bag. Scoops are 9.95, but I like to dribble salsa juice all over my shirts; makes laundry day so much more challenging....
Why do that Thor? It's much easier to run a company on OPM. There's literally no downside for them when their money isn't on the line.
ReplyDeleteAnd when they get in trouble the Feds will bail them out. Why change A THING if you're Goldman?
ReplyDeleteWouldn't it be almost perfectly poetic if last week's election and QE marked THE top in the markets? It would really hurt a lot of newly minted bulls if that were the case.
ReplyDeleteManny - I was thinking that not only do they not need to money being public might give them, but by being a private company, they are excluded from a certain amount of oversight that publicly traded companies are usually under. . . .
ReplyDeleteRock - Homemade salsa is great stuff, at the price you are paying for corn chips has you concidered making your own?
ReplyDeleteIt is not that difficult and once you get the thickness and consistancy of the tortilla you like, you might just enjoy them more then the store bought kind.
Just a thought
Mangy Mutt
Plus GS gets to keep all of their ginormous and much deserved bonuses, while being TBTF.
ReplyDeleteDenise - true, but they would not have to report compensation at all were they not a publicly traded company correct?
ReplyDeleteAs long as banks, investment banks, hedge and private equity funds are allowed to lever up 30 times their capital, there will be another meltdown, and another and another. Even at 10 times leverage a tiny move against their positions will create another meltdown. Plus during those types of meltdowns the "hedges" work backwards.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteThat is true.
At Goldman, it’s fool me twice
ReplyDeleteNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Did anyone think Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s infamous Abacus deal was an isolated incident?
Of course not. Now, the other shoe has dropped. Goldman /quotes/comstock/13*!gs/quotes/nls/gs (GS 169.54, +0.34, +0.20%) disclosed in a regulatory filing that it’s the target of a lawsuit alleging two collateralized-debt obligations it packaged and sold were built to make the investment bank money even if the $1.2 billion in CDOs turned sour. Read WSJ story on Goldman disclosure on Hudson Mezzanine Funding 1 and 2.
The lawsuit is the latest in a line of investor suits against the firm and a Securities and Exchange investigation over its Abacus deal that produced a $550 million settlement, the biggest fine in SEC history. Read full story on Goldman settlement with SEC.
Denise - interesting. I sometimes get the impression that the US is like a zebra being torn to shreds by hyena's and vultures. The Hyena's and vultures in this analogy are bankers and lawyers.
ReplyDeleteThor - Good analogy, except the hyena's and vultures are playing with their food...
ReplyDeleteMutt
TLT is collapsing today.
ReplyDeleteHah! Pot, meet Kettle.
ReplyDeletelso coloring currency trading, China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange — its foreign-exchange regulator — said in a statement Tuesday it will strictly control its financial institutions’ quotas for the use of short-term foreign debt.
It also said it will tighten its oversight of funds shipped home by Chinese companies operating abroad, as well direct investments into China by foreign investors. The moves were aimed at curbing speculative inflows of capital. Read more on China's capital controls.
“The government expressed concerns that unattractive yields in the U.S. and a falling dollar would send speculative flows into emerging market Asia,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT. The move suggests the People’s Bank of China may be one step closer to raising interest rates, which has generally reduced traders’ interest in riskier assets.
-1.54% TLT
ReplyDelete10 Year Note Auction did not go well.
ReplyDeleteAre we going to see a meaningful decline today?
ReplyDeleteI would be a seller on a break to new lows.
ReplyDeleteYee haw! It now needs to break 122.00 SPY and STAY under it.
ReplyDeleteAre we seriously going to get two down days in a row - how shocking!
ReplyDeleteWe'll see if the calvary is coming to save us again today.
ReplyDelete10/19/10 we were down 1.59%. That was the last day down more than 1%.
ReplyDeleteAnd prior to that the last day down more than 1% was 9/7/10 -1.15%.
ReplyDeleteBlogs have been very quiet lately, not much going on anywhere in any of my usual haunts, and that includes the non financial blogs I follow. Calm before the storm?
ReplyDeleteComplacency before the storm?
ReplyDeleteAnd that storm could break out to the upside as it seems like the calvary has come again to the rescue.
ReplyDeleteBeach Ball Trade still in effect.
ReplyDeleteDenise (2:23) - I don't think we will end down today nor tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI think there is too much to loose at this point and they will try and keep it up, but for how long...
Mutt
The fact that the SPY could not stay under 122.00 for even an hour is something to note.
ReplyDeleteHow we close today will be important.
Collapse in oil prices coming soon?
ReplyDeleteHas the IEA ever gotten a call like this right in the past?
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Chinese demand is likely to drive the price of oil much higher in the coming years, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday in its 2010 World Energy Outlook. "The age of cheap oil is over," the agency said, according to a press briefing document on its website. In a Wall Street Journal interview, the chief economist of the IEA said he expects the price of oil to rise to about $110 a barrel in 2015 from about $88 now.
Not market related. I like to bring back this "colonization is over but exploitation goes on" topic on occasions:
ReplyDelete"The NGO said the African leaders and their families had assets worth €160m (£137m) in France including scores of penthouses and villas, dozens of French bank accounts and cars including Ferraris, Maseratis and a Rolls-Royce.
A police report in 2007 said the Bongo clan had 39 properties in France, mostly in Paris's 16th arrondissement and on the Riviera. The family also had 70 French bank accounts, 11 in Omar Bongo's name.(etc....)"
"The case threatens to lay bare the opaque deal-making and blind eye to corruption of France's special "Françafrique" relationship with its former African colonies. The case could also strain French diplomatic and business ties with Gabon and Congo, two former colonies, and with Equatorial Guinea, a growing oil exporter."
Three African leaders face fraud inquiry in France
Politics and lobbies dumping their partners, is colonization dying a slow death?
Oh wait.. wikipedia states that decolonization HAS already happened. My bad.
Nut = Wolfie?
ReplyDeleteI think anything economics related is good to post.
I'd also expect that TPTB all over the third world do this sort of thing. Certainly the palestinian leadership does, same for Afghanistan. I don't know that a first world country in the West would be the safest place to be storing that money, but the real estate might do in a pinch if they ever had to sell for cash.
Wow, hit a lot of stops today.
ReplyDeleteVix is up 3.39%
Blogosphere eerily quiet right now on sites like TBP and others.
ReplyDelete13 day ma. floor
ReplyDeleteJesus these banks are the worst. My home loan was sold to Fidelity recently, I got a letter in the mail from Fidelity saying it had been sold to them. No phone number to call, no address to send a payment to, nothing.
ReplyDeleteThe original loan holder has a 1-800 number for fidelity, and that's it. No one seems to know who I'm supposed to make the house payment to that will be late in about five more days. I just got off the phone with Fidelity and they say they'll have new coupon books sent out in "about two weeks". No answer to my "Is Fidelity just assuming everyone will call in to get the address? Or are you hoping that people won't call so you can charge them late fees?"
We are so fucked.
SLW down 8.7%.
ReplyDeleteOuch!
Wounds licking, I'll bet. Thank goodness for trailing stops.
ReplyDeleteStill no 3LB trend reversals on most of my longs, so we'll see what tomorrow brings. 3LB trend reversal for the spy would be 119.60 or so. Down a percent today.
Hey emmy! What's shaking?
ReplyDelete@Nut,
ReplyDeleteCheck all bank accounts in Switzerland held by foreigners -You'll find looters from all countries hiding their weatlth there, even from America, Canada, and other European countries.
I Can
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteHow's MOTR?
@Emmanuel,
Welcome back
I Can
Emmie!! :-)
ReplyDeleteRock - you win some you lose some. You've had some pretty spectacular trades recently too!
ReplyDeleteEven my Emerging Markets charts are all showing red. The volume on the SPY is 166 million, below average, so this may just be a specialist's move to shake up the little bulls to get them out for a pop up later in the week.
ReplyDeleteAny bets?
My MOTR is up 2.75%, and so I just finished adding.
ReplyDeleteStrange day all around. Something seems amiss to me.
ReplyDelete@Thor
ReplyDeleteYeah, it's been a good month so far. With the QE2 happening, I don't expect the market to plop on its face. China's closing its doors to the hot money, so where else could you go? Spain (ouch)? Ireland (ouch ouch)?
Maybe Portugal. I heard China said they would be available to back Portugal.
"Hey emmy! What's shaking?"
ReplyDeleteThe PM bugs stop orders.
(I should have something for next week's linkfest, but not for this week)
Emmy - Take as much time as you need - We're all just happy to see you :-)
ReplyDeleteSoybeans 1329.00 +54.25 +4.25
ReplyDelete"'beans in the 'teens'"
is the way the chant goes..
http://www.ino.com/
http://quotes.ino.com/
ol' Paperback catching a bid..
AAIP
Gone for the evening but I will be back tonight.
ReplyDeleteEmmy,
ReplyDeleteWe have you covered. Great to see you back.
Interesting day.
And Hoffer too! Hey Hoffer ;-)
ReplyDeleteBonds down, stocks down. I think Leftback said that was an unusual day.
ReplyDeleteJnk -0.2%
TLT -2.06%
My Daddy, PRU has boosted its dividend to the 2007 level, $2.17
Go Dad!
@MEH,
ReplyDeleteGlad to see you again. Where do you think the beans are going to go?
@I Can, AAIP
ReplyDeleteI nearly cried when I saw the cotton price today.
Welcome, Hoffer. Great to "see" you.
ReplyDeleteI have heard that COMEX increased gold and silver margin. Anybody know about this?
ReplyDeletethis:
ReplyDeleteNYMEX:GC GOLD Dec 1410.0 1424.3 1382.2 1389.0 -14.2 -1.01% 16:01 all months
NYMEX:PA PALLADIUM Dec 710.00 743.50 675.10 685.55 -25.35 -3.56% 15:59 all months
NYMEX:PL PLATINUM Jan 1773.1 1811.8 1746.8 1755.6 -15.5 -0.87% 15:59 all months
NYMEX:SI SILVER Dec 27.730 29.340 26.415 26.750 -0.682 -2.46% 16:02 all months
looks like some 'top-forming' action...
dss,
re: Beans, it's a good Q: ..
Crops seem pretty decent .. though, was having a convo, the other day, about ~G20, IMF, SDRs, the U$D, etc. ..
LSS: for 'the World' to shed the 'Reserve' nature of the U$D, and to 're-align' Trade Balances/"Capital Flows" there has to be a 're-pricing' of some key Commods..
"Beans" being one of them (remember, they, too can be a ready basis of a "Carbohydrate Economy")
AAIP
also, Howdy Y'all ~
link:
ReplyDeletehttp://quotes.ino.com/
ibid.
There's a 3LB daily trend reversal on the percentage of stocks above the 50 day MA sor the S&P 500.
ReplyDeleteWe had similar 3LB reversals around March 17th and July 23.
In both cases, we were in the process of defining a top before a 20% (March 22nd) and a 10% correction (Aug 4) respectively.
I just heard a comment on Bloomberg.
ReplyDelete"If Ireland runs out of money to pay its debt, it runs to Germany. If the US runs out of money to pay its debt, it just prints more money".
sor = for. Must be sleepy now. I hate not being on Daylight Savings time.
ReplyDeleteRock - true, but I'll bet you a quarter that the ECB eventually joins the QE club once their surpluses run out. I don't think the population of Europe is going to take austerity sitting down - especially if it's seen as only benefiting the banks and the wealthy.
ReplyDelete@MEH,
ReplyDeleteNice to see you here.
@Rock,
Getting late for you, there in Sing
I Can
Dollar gains before Potugal bond sale - Marketwatch.com
ReplyDeleteI Can
@Ican:
ReplyDeleteI'm trying to change my schedule. Last year, I could stay up until 5AM then sleep only 4 hours, but Monday was really hard on this old man. I think I need more than 4 hours sleep now. So I'll see how this new one works.
The wet markets are open early but close at noon, so it was difficult for me to get there. This schedule will allow me to go shopping and get a roti and coffee for breakfast before work.
Working 2 jobs is hard. I can't imagine how people with kids do it.
http://involuntaryservant.blogspot.com/2009/03/bought-and-paid-for-central-bankster.html
ReplyDeleteAAIP
CME
ReplyDeleteThere it is.
"BOA, JPMorgan Reprise Perfect Trading RUn in Quarter". http://noir.bloomber.com
ReplyDeleteRacked up perfect trading records for the second time this year making money everyday last quarter after accomplishing the same feat in the first three months of 2010.
GS - lost 2 days
C - lost 2 "
MS - lost 10"
What can go wrong - Borrow at zirp and invest in Ems, PMs and commodities.
And from the same link - Japan may be forced to print if the Yen goes higher.
"Fed backlash may boost BOJ opposition to large scale debt buys".
I Can
@Emmanuel,
ReplyDeleteCoal India - 10% stake - over subscribed - went up 40%. Crazy
@ Emmy Mark
ReplyDeleteGlad you guys are back.
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com
ReplyDeleteWill the S&P fill that gap of Nov.4 gap up, post FOMC?
Tortillas and biofuel from maize. Archive. - Foto: GREGORY BULL/AP
ReplyDeleteby Julian Isherwood politiken.dk
A fresh report from the Danish Actionaid Denmark, Greenpeace and Noah organisations among others suggests that biofuel produced from maize or palm kernels causes two-and-a-half times as much CO2 emissions as traditional fuel.
The report, entitled “Anticipated Indirect Land Use Change Associated with Expanded Use of Biofuels in the EU“, says that increased greenhouse emissions will be the equivalent of an increase of between 12 and 26 million vehicles and mean between 81 percent and 167 percent more greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels.
“The result is that the EU’s policy takes food out of the mouths of the world’s starving and puts it in European petrol tanks..... It affects many more than the 925 million people who go to bed hungry each day,” says Actionaid Denmark Chairwoman Trine Pertou Mach.
http://poorrichards-blog.blogspot.com/2010/11/report-biofuel-is-twin-edged.html
also, other good art.s at that site..
AAIP
@ Anon
ReplyDeleteI don' know if i's going o fill it.
I'm in a wait and see stage right now.
If the next coming days keeps coming down mildly then around nov 17 a bottom can be made and up again for a few months.
If goes impulsive now let's say 5-8% up till wednesday-Thursday next week, chances are that a decent correction could start around nov 17-18.
If keeps doing nothing, who knows (that's why I'm in a wait and see position till at least nov 17).
Dan
Got SLV calls and fewer puts hoping that it keeps moving strongly, to the upside preferred but if it's down will be good too as long as keeps moving briskly.
ReplyDeleteDan
Mannwich said...
ReplyDeleteBlogosphere eerily quiet right now on sites like TBP and others.
November 9, 2010 3:42 PM
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Life's not as fun without the instigators, is it?
@Anon: Nah, it's just not as fun without provocative, thoughtful, albeit not personal/vindictive/nasty/petty, comments. There's a difference between vehemently disagreeing and devolving into the latter. I think most of us can toe that line. Some of us can't. I don't miss that other crap.
ReplyDeleteQuiet is good. When instigators invade only the instigators win as their goal is to make others as miserable as possible. Reveals a great deal about their character and goals.
ReplyDeleteYou know when I was younger, I never dreamed I would one day spend so much damn time in my car, stuck in traffic. I don't know how people can live here their whole lives, it's exhausting.
ReplyDeleteManny, NY must be like this.
Ooooh - who was that anonymous? I'll bet you a NICKLE it was Bergie ;-)
ReplyDeleteHi Bergie!
Agreed Anon. Was also thinking that the quiet might mean capitulation by the bears, which could mean major market top. This relative quiet (although this period seems MUCH quieter) has happened quite a bit in the past preceding some prior market tops and subsequent drops. Even dead hobo was supposedly buying last week after QE2 was announced. Bears throwing in the towel, it seems. Or, maybe not. Who knows? I don't know anymore.
ReplyDeleteBut to answer your question. No, it's not :-P I would be lying if I said there wasn't a small part of me that enjoys the fighting. When you get right down to it though, the peace is much nicer, and far less stressful!
ReplyDelete@Thor: Not if you live in Manhattan where most people don't own cars. The traffic is congested there but the sprawl isn't anywhere near as bad as LA or Cali in general, IMO.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. I'll bet that's Bergie as well. If it is you, Bergie, how's it going?
I laugh at people who complain about traffic here. It can be be bad at times during rush hour, but unlike the coasts, rush hour is VERY short, not ALL day. Getting around here is a piece of cake in comparison.
ReplyDelete@Thor: I also relish a good, HEATED debate that stays relatively on topic. But then again, anyone who comes here and knows me already knows that.
ReplyDeleteManny hah, yeah, every time I go out to the desert I can feel my whole existence wind down. What I meant like LA being like NY, is that they are both exhausting places to live. So many people all crammed into such a small area, everyone going everywhere all at once, no quiet time. I could walk outside my gate and up to Sunset tonight at 2:00 and there would be people and cars everywhere. Lines for everything, a wait to do anything, but everyone constantly having to do something. It takes a certain kind of person to thrive in this environment, and I'm finding out that I'm not that kind of a person :-)
ReplyDeleteI guess NormanB has a problem with me chiming in ON TOPIC over at TBP. LOL. Sigh. I'll refrain tonight but you'll notice my comments are ON TOPIC trying to add value to the discussion, and are not personal or vindictive in any way. When I DO get personal is when a douchebag like this gets personal with me. Just defending myself. ;-)
ReplyDeleteNormanB Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 10:32 pm
Is this The Big Picture blog with the big time investment advisor making actual decisions and treating issues seriously (if he’s wrong, ugh) or is it the Mannwich Blog? Seems like Mannwich is all over the Comments page. Personally, it gets in my way of thinking seriously.
@Thor: It's DEFINITEL very similar in that way. I always felt run down in NYC and remember thinking when I first moved there just how rundown (and some downright haggard and unhealthy) almost everyone on the subways looked. It's not a sustainable way to live unless one can get out of the city a lot.
ReplyDelete@Thor,
ReplyDeleteIf it was berg, he has a point. He's such a diplomat.
I do not enjoy the fighting, not one bit, it is destructive and demoralizing. OTOH, I reserve the right to defend myself against anyone, any time, any place.
My husband said it best, (having been on the receiving end) they have no idea and they will not win.
Manny - WOW, hah! What did you do to warrant that? BR didn't actually allow my smart ass comment to go through did he?
ReplyDeleteOh he didn't let it go through. Thank god for small miracles, I had a shitty day at work today and I was in rare form, I assure you :-)
ReplyDelete@Denise: I guess strong opinions attract the attacks. See my above comment from TBP just now. I don't have the energy to respond tonight. Not in the mood anymore, but you'll notice I didn't start it.
ReplyDelete@Thor: Actually, you do have a comment that has appeared now.
ReplyDeleteI said this in response to NormanB's ignorant assertion about how the MSN failed to criticize the health care bill:
NormanB Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
I can’t say why the media doesn’t call out Palin for her nonsense but when the Dems were telling us that the health bill was going to get us more health care for less money and Barbara Boxer was saying its a win-win-win I was wondering the same thing.
Mannwich Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 7:26 pm
@NormanB: I don’t know what media outlets you follow, but the ones I did called the Dems out all the time for shit on the health care bill.
But of course he doesn't debate me on my comments or anything. I guess I've annoyed him with too many comments. Won't be the first time my being opinionated has annoyed someone. LOL. Oh well.
Manny, I've never seen you start an argument, that's usually my MO
ReplyDeleteI'm DYING to post something in response but I don't want to get put in BR's penalty box. And don't want to contribute to any wars on his blog.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteJust another blow hard. I haven't seen where BR charges admission and by the same token he doesn't charge people like Norman for being dicks, either.
Manny, I called BR out on the penalty box today. I asked him why he allows people like Ahab to publicly ridicule him on a daily basis, but puts people like you and I in moderation. He didn't let that one go public ;-)
ReplyDeleteLOL Thor. Actually, my MO is usually not to start something that's personal in nature, but I DO respond vociferously to defend myself if someone brings the fight to me.
ReplyDeleteGonna be a long night, I'm short S&P futures. (or a very short night if I am stopped out)
ReplyDelete@Denise: It's unreal, isn't it? The thing is, I WON'T back down, so they can keep bringing it.
ReplyDeleteI always remind my wife at work that if someone ever mistakes her being accommodating and nice to her colleagues for being "weak", and they cross that imaginary red line that she sets to pull a vicious can of whoop ass on them to let them know what's up. She's had to use that advice few times this year and put it to better use than I ever did while I was in the big corporate world.
My spidey senses smell a market top forming. I think we're due for at least a brief correction before another rally into year-end. Or maybe the Santa rally doesn't come this year? That would be a major curve ball and put a hurting on a lot of people.
ReplyDeleteMy temper gets me in trouble at work ALL the time. I'm shocked they let me get away with some of the shit that pops out of my mouth when I'm upset.
ReplyDelete@Thor: They'll put up with a lot only if you're good at what you do. I always remind my wife that, who's often too accommodating at work. She's damn good at what she does and isn't going to get fired for picking her spots and speaking up from time to time.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteThe technicals have been weakening during this entire rally phase. Like a chicken with it's head cut off, the market continues to go marginally higher until it doesn't. Sometimes you just have to put your money where your mouth is, and we will see if Mr. Market is ready to pull back or go to more new highs. Nothing wrong with sticking your toe in the water.
Tops generally take a long time to form, sometimes a year, or more.
Mannwich said...
ReplyDelete@Anon: Nah, it's just not as fun without provocative, thoughtful, albeit not personal/vindictive/nasty/petty, comments. There's a difference between vehemently disagreeing and devolving into the latter. I think most of us can toe that line. Some of us can't. I don't miss that other crap.
November 9, 2010 10:23 PM
--
Good thing you were blessed with the powers/insight to tell the difference. G'nite.
@Denise: What's weird is I tried covering my little short yesterday on a major dive in the stock, which would have been a 14% gain, but since then it's up that 114% from mid-day yesterday through today, and then some, another 3%, so a 16% reversal since mid-day YESTERDAY, while the rest of the market was going down. Crazy action. Just whip-sawing all over the place. I still never covered so now I'm in the red. I wonder if this was just major short-covering at a key technical level and mine just didn't get filled. Now what to do? It's a small amount but I'm still annoyed.
ReplyDelete14%, not 114%. Terrible typing.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow will be a key day for that position. If it breaks out, I'm toast and might need to take the loss. So close to a nice little gain too, but it just didn't get filled. Ugh. This stuff is HARD.
ReplyDeleteManny, no shit. I prefer my lazy man's buy and hold approach. You can bet I'm going to be holding my gold all the way up to 3,000. And then of course, back down to 30 dollars an ounce again.
ReplyDeleteGold sold off this afternoon, too.
ReplyDeleteGood night all.
ReplyDelete@ Denise
ReplyDelete"...Tops generally take a long time to form, sometimes a year, or more."
That's absolutely right.
I prefer to shut my mouth when I don't have a whole picture but as of right now that kind of top that you mentioned (according to "my book")
is coming late April or May.
Still I need to fill in a lot of blanks until we reach that moment.In a month I'll probably have a clearer idea.But end April-May has very high chances to be the top that you were talking about.
Dan