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Monday, November 8, 2010

Manny Mondays: OK, So What Now? Open Thread

Morning all! With the QE2 (or really QE-infinity) news "in the bank", the elections behind us, employment numbers that seem to be back on the upswing, and markets that simply refuse to go down in any significant way, what now for both the markets and economy over the next few months and into '11?

Is everything now all peachy keen with Helicopter Ben dumping endless greenbacks on Wall Street combined with slowly improving jobs and economics numbers? Is the mantra "buy all risky assets and commodities or be priced out forever?" Or do we have some clouds looming on the horizon? What could possibly go wrong now? Here's one thing that looms, potential political gridlock. Or is that a good thing for the markets and economy? I say in normal times gridlock might be a good thing, but in these times where solutions are required for several problems that ail this country, this is potentially not a positive thing. I'm guessing if the O man holds true to form, he'll cave and do most of the compromising on just about everything in order to avoid total gridlock and a reprisal of the mid '90's when the GOP forced a temporary government shut down.

Eric Cantor Opposes Compromise On Extending Bush Tax Cuts, Says Government Shutdown Will Be Obama's Fault

What's on your minds today, folks?

58 comments:

  1. Liquidity, by itself, can give the appearance of wealth.

    But I'm afraid it is only productivity funded by capital that generates true wealth.

    I wish there were some way to guarantee the QE2 liquidity would be applied inside our borders, but I believe this money will immediately leave for the promise of greater returns in other countries.

    I therefore believe the true wealth will be achieved in other countries.

    Hence my questions about how to invest in emerging markets, and Dss' and ICan's so very helpful replies. But looking at the details, it may be a little early to go there. It seems the emerging markets stocks I can view are either at par to the S&P, or are below. But almost every bank is above.

    Barry Ritholz said invest in C, it will hit $5. I think he's right, but I think that trade must be held a little longer, looking for 5.25.

    I had C a while ago, and I will be looking to start a position on a pullback. I also have MS for 3 days or so, with a full position on after the second day because of the action.

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  2. ooh, I got my rock back! I have no idea why it went away.....

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  3. "Euro weakness on Irish Debt concern, U.S. Index Futures fall, Metals Slide". http://noir.bloomberg.com


    POMO day today.

    I Can

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  4. @Jeff, Denise, Thor,

    Is it possible to show gold chart on the side, with the U$D chart.

    I Can

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  5. Gosh, it certainly is lonely here in Singapore. That is the Sing flag, with the 1 next to it, isn't it?

    Also, it took me a little while today, after checking my connections, that you guys went off daylight savings time.

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  6. Is it surprising to anyone that GS is defending Bernanke's QE2?

    Anybody wonder whose pocket HeliBen is in?

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  7. Gold Standard coming back?

    Hong Kong, G-20 meeting in S. Korea this week.

    "Gold's a good anchor". Said World Bank President, Robert Zoellick in a newspaper editorial.

    Zoellick says the G-20 should consider a new gold-based currency regime.

    I wonder if this guy was the one who bought a ton of gold (It was in the news , some couple bought a ton of gold and it's not stored in the bank vault). LOL

    I Can

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  8. ^ link

    marketwatch.com

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  9. @I Can: Sounds good to me. I'll let Denise or Thor handle though.

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  10. Morning all! Back in the saddle

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  11. Looks like I touched a nerve over at TBP. Wow, what's so bad about this comment? I think I'm just about done with these blogs....

    Mannwich Says:

    November 8th, 2010 at 9:46 am
    Excuse me, BR, but how is this any different than the fraudulent housing bubble? If I recall correctly, you constantly excoriated those people who constantly blew smoke up everyone’s ass about it, including the NAR. Do I detect a blind spot in your reasoning as well?

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  12. Meaning, I'm now in the penalty box over there. Good grief. My point to BR is a valid one, I think. Why can't he just answer my question? Anyway, I'm not going to get into bashing BR over here. It's his blog, but someone tell me how the stock market is any more legitimate than the prior housing market bubble? I simply don't see it. And if that's the case, then how can he or anyone rip on one fraudulent entity while not doing the same with another mainly because they happen to be in that particular biz?

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  13. @Mannwich
    Some people take themselves too seriously.

    Me, I put my pants on, sitting down, one leg at a time.

    I used to stand up, but you know, times change.

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  14. I hear you, Rock. It's a legitimate question, is it not? If it's not, then someone tell me how it isn't?

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  15. @Jeff,

    I hope you don't take that seriously. Most of us drive our security from what we think is right/wrong. Anyone who challanges our ideas is theatening.

    Don't read too much into it.

    I Can

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  16. Looks like I'm out again. Very strange.

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  17. @I Can: You're right. Just a little cranky about it sometimes. Today's just one of those days. It's easy to morally rationalize that what we're personally doing is righteous while others (the NAR) somehow aren't. That's all I'm saying. Personally, I can't see how the whole investment management game on Wall Street is any different than the real estate game in many respects.

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  18. Good Morning everyone. Hope a great weekend was had by all.

    Well try to get the gold chart there again, it might have been deleted when we were setting some things up. Any other charts we might want to see? (as long as they do not interfere with loading the site)

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  19. Manny,

    I think that some words trigger his spam filter and until it is released the comment stays hidden. May not be a Barry thing at all.

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  20. True Denise, but I don't think I used any of the "magic" words. Or maybe I did. Who knows? A little cranky this Monday morning. Should try to get outside. Going to be a balmy 60's today.

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  21. S&P 500

    50% fibo of 1121 - Afraid to trade blog.

    Algos trading

    I Can

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  22. ^should be 1221

    I Can

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  23. Thor,

    I cannot duplicate the Gold chart from Kitco to make it appear correctly. Do you want to give it a try>

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  24. Denise - Yes, let me give it a try.

    Wow, did we finally get a down Monday?

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  25. This is a good read.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/drew-westen/could-we-have-predicted-w_b_780250.html

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  26. Manny - very good. I didn't know that older people were one of the larger beneficiaries of food stamps! I hadn't actually even thought about that. I guess we know what many of the boomers are going to be depending on in retirement.

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  27. Oooh Manny, just getting caught up in the comments here. You got put in the penalty box eh? Hah, welcome to the club :-)

    How do you know you're in the penalty box? Did that comment never show up? Or Are you getting the "Your comment is awaiting moderation?" message after you post now?

    I think that comment is a valid one, also, it doesn't sound like something BR would put someone on restriction for. Look at the stuff Ahab and Andy come up with - far more "in your face" than your comment. Maybe you were accidentally put in the penalty box.

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  28. THis is interesting -

    Gold's a good anchor
    World Bank President Robert Zoellick says
    the G-20 should consider a new gold-based currency regime.


    Folks getting nervous about endless QE. I wonder how this would work actually. We hold more gold than anyone else by far don't we?

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  29. @manny,

    The election results illustrate how so many in this country are brain washed to the point of no return. Just to spite Obama or the Democrats they decided that voting in Republicans is going to be the answer to all of their "government problems". Totally forgetting that no taxes will be raised on the wealthy or corporations, (some might even be reduced further) at the expense of the 98% of the rest of the populations.

    Now after 30 years of profligate spending, the Republicans have found "fiscal austerity" and are going to fight "big government" and "waste".

    National Debt by US Presidential Terms

    These idiots who voted in the Republicans have sealed their fates and the fates of anyone who receives or will soon receive Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, Veteran's benefits, Unemployment benefits, etc.

    Since the Republicans cannot repeal ObamaCare, they have decided to slice and dice it, not fund it, obstruct it, do what ever they can to destroy the bill. Rich people and congressmen never have to worry about the cost of accessibility of health care.

    At this point it is obvious that our country has been completely and totally co-opted by the right wing and the idiots who support them and this will only increase as the next election cycles play out. While they used to pretend that they didn't actually buy elections it was pretty obvious that they are gleefully doing so since Citizens United.

    I truly believe that we could get a total economic collapse where everyone except the rich are eating their dogs to stay alive and these morons would still be voting Republican because Sarah Palin and Faux News told them to. Go Tea Party!

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  30. Rock (10:19) - I find it so much easier to not wear pants.

    Mangy Mutt

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  31. Gold hits U$D 1400 and turns back.

    I Can

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  32. @Thor,

    Old folks, and families with children. You know, all of those lazy welfare cheats. Those old people and kids are just more examples of leeches on the system.

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  33. Thor,

    Thanks for fixing the gold chart.

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  34. Denise - You're welcome! :-)

    ICan - Have you thought about there possibly being a connection between QE and Gold prices? We fairly confident that QE is bubbling up stocks, how about gold as an inflation hedge (obvious I know), but it would be interesting to see if anyone has made a quantifiable connection - every X billion in QE pushes gold prices up X percent.

    Also - wasn't 1500 one of GS's target prices for this year?

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  35. @Thor,

    You must be happy about your gold purchase. About your question, Gold to me is an inflation hedge - Indians are gold bugs(no judgement - good or bad - just an observation).

    I have to look into re connection between gold and QE.

    I Can

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  36. ICan - Yup, I'm very happy with that gold purchase. One of the few instances lately where buy and hold actually worked.

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  37. Good article

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8114818/The-rest-of-the-world-goes-West-when-America-prints-more-money.html

    The rest of the world goes West when America prints more money
    Last Wednesday was a hinge point in history. The United States decided to drop all pretence of being interested in leading – or even being part of – a coordinated global policy response to the most serious economic crisis in more than 70 years.

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  38. This story is going mainstream. This is truly unreal to me. They don't even bother to hide the two different sets of rules anymore. Why bother even pretending when nobody can do anything about it anyway?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/08/martin-erzinger-morgan-stanley-hit-and-run-_n_780294.html

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  39. We, as in two people, (not the pretentious and silly 3rd person "we") have just started working on a long term market research project so my time will be split between trading, research and blogging. There are some exciting trading opportunities that we have uncovered and that is what the research is about. Fun!

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  40. Manny,

    I saw that. I have seldom read a more disgusting or disturbing story. How much did the wealthy hedge fund guy have to pay to keep from being indicted for a felony? Hit and run with injuries? This guy should be in jail held without bond.

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  41. @Denise: It's utterly appalling. At what point will this lunacy stop? Honestly.

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  42. His "ability to earn a living" trumped every consideration in this case. Are you effing kidding me?

    Where the eff are the good people of Colorado on this one?

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  43. And the liver transplant doctor's ability to earn a living and save people's lives, is not considered?

    Good grief. The USA continues to go mad.

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  44. If this had been average Joe Tea Partier doing this crime, Joe would be rotting in a jail cell for a long time, but since it's banker (and, heck, as we've seen, those bankers are indispensable people in our country), it are HIS interests that matter the most.

    A hit and fucking run and it's a misdemeanor?

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  45. I'm like Bush more and more each day:

    In new memoir, Bush reignites feud with McCain, admits strain with Cheney over Libby


    Former President George W. Bush has said his upcoming memoir isn't about settling scores, but he may have made an exception for onetime GOP rival John McCain.

    In "Decision Points," set to hit shelves Tuesday, the former president takes dead aim at McCain's 2008 presidential campaign, which he implies was run very badly.

    Another McCain decision that irks Bush: his choice of Sarah Palin as his '08 running mate. This doesn't make it into the Bush book, but the New York Daily News' Tom DeFrank writes that the former president, like his former strategist Karl Rove, has told friends that he doesn't think Palin is qualified to be president and blames McCain for giving her a national platform. "Naming Palin makes Bush think less of McCain as a man," a Republican official familiar with Bush's thinking told DeFrank.

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  46. No wonder the Republicans wanted Bush to delay the book until after the elections.

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  47. Hit and Run with Injuries, I am pretty sure that would be a felony or even vehicular manslaughter if the guy died, in every state.

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  48. Colorado hit and run laws:

    (1) The driver of any vehicle directly involved in an accident resulting in injury to, serious bodily injury to, or death of any person shall immediately stop such vehicle at the scene of such accident or as close to the scene as possible but shall immediately return to and in every event shall remain at the scene of the accident until the driver has fulfilled the requirements of section 42-4-1603 (1). Every such stop shall be made without obstructing traffic more than is necessary.

    (1.5) It shall not be an offense under this section if a driver, after fulfilling the requirements of subsection (1) of this section and of section 42-4-1603 (1), leaves the scene of the accident for the purpose of reporting the accident in accordance with the provisions of sections 42-4-1603 (2) and 42-4-1606.

    (2) Any person who violates any provision of this section commits:

    (a) A class 1 misdemeanor traffic offense if the accident resulted in injury to any person;

    (b) A class 5 felony if the accident resulted in serious bodily injury to any person;

    (c) A class 4 felony if the accident resulted in the death of any person.

    (3) The department shall revoke the driver's license of the person so convicted.

    (4) As used in this section and sections 42-4-1603 and 42-4-1606:

    (a) "Injury" means physical pain, illness, or any impairment of physical or mental condition.

    (b) "Serious bodily injury" means injury that involves, either at the time of the actual injury or at a later time, a substantial risk of death, a substantial risk of serious permanent disfigurement, or a substantial risk of protracted loss or impairment of the function of any part or organ of the body, or breaks, fractures, or burns of the second or third degree.

    Source: L. 94: Entire title amended with relocations, p. 2399, § 1, effective January 1, 1995. L. 98: (2)(b) amended, p. 1443, § 32, effective July 1. L. 2000: (4)(b) amended, p. 709, § 44, effective July 1. L. 2004: (1) amended and (1.5) added, p. 606, § 1, effective July 1.

    18-1.3-401. Felonies classified - presumptive penalties.

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  49. Clearly, it is a class 5 felony.

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  50. @Denise(2:29)

    Fun job!

    Like to hear about that.

    ICan

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  51. Here comes our usual melt up. Man this is going to be ugly when it eventually comes crashing down.

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  52. Money coming out of Euro and hiding in risky assets -gold, CAD, AUD, oil and USD.

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  53. (Canadian) Mortgage debt tops $1 trillion - cbc.ca

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  54. Ambac to file BK.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ambac-bankruptcy-filing-imminent

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  55. Manny - the first of many I'm sure. I love the hat tip to Cramer too. Poor guy.

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  56. Manny - I've noticed a lot of missing regulars at TBP, I wonder how many people he's put in moderation.

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  57. @mutt
    Yeah, I know exactly what you mean. I won't comment more, because I don't want Thor to have to remove it.....

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