Raising Retirement Age Hurts the Poor
Were the Bush Tax Cuts Good For Growth? Not So Much
Unemployment Extension Defeated in the House
(Let Them Eat Cake!)
Republican Push to Defund NPR Fails
Dublin Needs Aid
As Ireland Moves Toward Bailout, Portugal Waits in the Wings
Goldman Sachs Promotes 321 to Managing Director Up From Last Years 272
(I am so glad that they are "sucking it up and coping" like the rest of America)
Taiwan's Economy Grew at a 9.8% Pace Adding Rate Pressure
GM shares lose momentum in post-IPO NYSE return
(Sadly, predictable)
My Space Cozies Up To Facebook (It won't help them)
Japan Works to Cut Ties Between Mob and Business
(I'm doing the best I can, emmy, hope you approve!)
ema(20) 1193 on S&P being defended
ReplyDeleteI Can
You're doing great, dss.
ReplyDeleteMorning all - agree with emmie Denise, great linkfest!
ReplyDeleteHere's our down day.
Maybe the market won't be up for the week.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Looks like Gold is loosing more ground along with stocks
ReplyDeleteAmenRa has been convinced things were moving into a downward pattern, I thought he was a little early in his assessment. Looks like he may be right, it will be interesting to see how the day plays out.
Mutt
Morning all!!
ReplyDelete@Emmanuel, what will keep the market up? Nothing on the horizon for the short term. 1170-1225 range.
ReplyDeleteI Can
@emmy,
ReplyDeleteThanks. There is no better link fest poster than you!
@mutt:
ReplyDeleteThe 3LB's do not confirm a downward trend. We've seen these spikes down, then suddenly a turnaround back to the upside so many times.
What worries me it that the 3LB shows a downward trend of the % of stocks above their 50 day moving average. This means the stocks are not progressing at their previous rate.
Not that there will be a turnaround, just they are not going up at the previous rate.
Look at the SPY weekly. We've had an almost linear rise since 8/22. Now, just this week, we've dropped out of that linear range.
This is not the doomsday sign. It is a sign of phew, we need a breather.
I'm thinking this downturn is a time to evaluate which is the strongest (ones that pullback the least are IMHO the stronest) and time to enter.
Enter slowly. add on higher lows.
I think this is our breather and still stick with the premise that this thing has at least one more pump left in it by year-end, maybe more, just to confound (and break) as many players as possible before the big players decide they want to take it down again.
ReplyDeleteRemember that markets can correct by going sideways forming a trading range. But at some point we will need to take out the November 9th high, or a lower high will form if we go down from here.
ReplyDeleteManny - You think we have one more pump to go? I don't know what to think anymore. I thought this last correction would have a little more oomph in it. Maybe we'll continue to correct next week, who knows.
ReplyDelete@Thor: After what we've seen, it's hard not to be at least suspicious this thing could have many chapters left.
ReplyDeleteChina and Bernanke at it- the currency war. From the globeandmail.com/report-on-business
ReplyDelete"Bernanke hits back,points at China..."
BB says China impedes global growth
"China blasts U.S. currency report".
'cold war mentality', they say
"Chinse farmers will decide Yuan's future".
Food prices are high, therefore wages must go up, cost of exports will go up..
Maybe Bernanke will win afterall..
I Can
That's possible, I Can. And let's face it, that't "the plan" at this point. Force China's hand on their currency manipulation.
ReplyDeleteInternally, the market has deteriorated, as Rock as said. My software tracks stocks above their 40 day ma and that is showing signs of deterioration, as well.
ReplyDeleteNew chart up.
Another Coal name I've watched and not bought.. Western Coal, met coal name in western Canada. Walter energy bids $3.3 billion, and the stock price moves 47% yeasterday to over $10.
ReplyDeleteSucks!
I Can
I Can, Sorry you missed that
ReplyDeleteMutt
@ICan
ReplyDeleteI had mutton Keema last night for dinner. The Nan was cooked in this egg-shaped kiln or oven.
They put it in an aluminum-foil lined iron plate that had to have been heated to 500 F. When the stall owner brought it to my table, it was bubbling.
I had to eat it. As the skin was falling from the roof of my mouth, I had to eat it. It was soooooooo good. The heat didn't matter. I can't believe you have it this good in Canada.
This morning, I made a reservation for the Palace Train. Soonest available was April.
I cannot wait.
Rock,
ReplyDeleteSounds delicious.
What is the Palace Train? It sounds as bad as trying to get a restaurant reservation around here these days.
Gimme some more red baby! we ain't done playing yet.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/watch-steve-ballmers-awesome-enthusiastic-opening-of-a-microsoft-store-2010-11
ReplyDeleteOMG where to start. First, grey slacks and blue blazer, ya, Thurston Howell called, he wants them back. At about 2.30 in we have a lizard impersonation, very nice. Check out the guy on his left doing his best Smithers suckup impression.
Manny, maybe you'll get lucky and he'll come to Minny to open the Mall of America store.
@greg: I think I'll pass, thanks. I've lived here nearly 6 years and have been to the "MOA" exactly twice. Both times were to hit "Camp Snoopy" (or whatever it's called now) for my newphews. I loathe mall shopping and shopping in general. That gigantic place freaks me out, although I will admit they do seem to have some unique stores. I prefer the aging, decrepit Southdale Mall (first mall built in entire U.S.), which is literally 2 miles a way, and has an Apple Store and just about everything I need.
ReplyDelete@Dss
ReplyDeleteYour tour guide, Rock:
http://www.palaceonwheels.net/
I will ride the elephant. I will let him/her pick me up by his/her trunk.
I will find friends.
I will take time off from trading. And from looking at fields of 1's and 0's. And for a week, I will forget.
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteThe MOA is indeed a study of middle class America. Plus it is so big. Have been twice when visiting with relatives.
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteThat looks like an incredible tour! Booked through April! Wow.
@denise: True. It just never ceases to amaze me that people don't have better things to do with their time on a beautiful day but go to the mall and consume crappy food, along with mostly crappy products one doesn't really need if they took just a few seconds to think about it.
ReplyDeleteDitto Rock. That looks awesome.
ReplyDeleteYouTube Video Captures Horse In Car On Kan. Highway
ReplyDeleteThis is so funny!
Horse Riding in a Car
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteI hate shopping, even food shopping. I go to our local mall twice a year to get a few new things for the season and that is it. I would rather spend my money at the garden center.
I do lots of on line shopping just to avoid the crowds and our roads are torn up now so that is a real problem.
ROCK - OMG Can I come with you??????? India has always been at the very top of my list of places to visit but I haven't been able to make it there because I don't want to go for less than a month so it's going to have to be a trip I take between jobs!
ReplyDelete@Rock,
ReplyDeleteApril? That's going to be HOOOOOOOOOOOOOT for you! Check it out in mid to late Feb. or early Mar. That's the best time or late OCT - Nov.
The oven is called Tandoor.
No, we cann't duplicate the taste here. People from the East like ripe fruit, sometimes over ripe, like Mangoes, lycheeses.
But knowing what's on that fruit, our now, fav. is California fruits - .
Yesterday, we bought Majdool dates from Cali - 100% natural, ripe, oversweet, and huge in size. Paid $10 for 2lbs pack.
I Can
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteYou should check out Tata's 7 star hotel in Hyderabad city. The Taj Palace hotel. They bought a palace from some former royal and have just renovated it. I read that their most expensive suite is $10,000/day. That's for the uber-rich in India( 1/2 million rupees). But you can live like a King for a day.
I Can
@Jeff(11:04)
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese will subsidise food, as the Indian are doing now. They got lot of fiat $. Good for farmers
I Can
ICan - I read an article earlier in the week that talked about China going the route of freezing the prices of certain food items to deal with their inflation. I'll try to dig it up if I can find it.
ReplyDeleteWas at my local Safeway store yesterday and noticed most items had four price tags attached. The regular price, the everyday low price, the cardmembers price, and finally the sale price. And then there is this... http://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-is-selling-all-droid-phones-for-1-cent-2010-11
ReplyDeleteI feel a lot better about the recovery now, as the we obviously have the best of the best in charge of our retail.
@Thor: But don't price controls have a really suspect history?
ReplyDeleteGreg - Hah, Microsoft is about 4 years late (as usual) with the store thing.
ReplyDeleteI just got off the phone with AT&T ordering a blackberry for a new hire and our sales rep was trying to push the Droid on me. I wonder if the retailers are getting push back from Motorola on these.
Manny,
ReplyDeleteChina is still a communist nation, a totalitarian state, officially China will implement the policies they deem necessary, but the nation is so huge the black market will prevail, I suspect.
Nice rally.
ReplyDeleteManny - I don't think it worked out for them last time around.
ReplyDeleteHere's one of the articles.
China to unveil food price controls to tackle inflation
Beijing: China will unveil food price controls and crack down on speculation in agricultural commodities to contain inflationary pressure that its central bank governor highlighted as a risk on Tuesday.
With consumer prices rising at their fastest pace in more than two years, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top planning agency, is preparing a ‘one-two punch’ of actions to rein in food costs, official media reported. Such direct intervention would mark an escalation of the government’s efforts to tame inflation and underline its worries over the rapid run-up in food prices.
Possible steps include price controls, subsidies for shoppers, a crackdown on hoarding and price gouging as well as a system whereby mayors are made responsible for a basket of food items, the China Securities Journal reported.
Human beings must not be nearly as bright as we think we are. How else can you explain the fact that we try the same shit over and over again if it has proven not to work in the past? Theory of de-volution anyone?
ReplyDeletePhilly fed comes in strong:
ReplyDeleteTitle
The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of 1.0 in October to 22.5 in November (see Chart). This is the highest reading in the index since last December. Indexes for new orders and shipments also improved this month, and each index increased 15 points. Indexes for both delivery times and un-filled orders changed from negative to positive this month, suggesting improvement.
Labor market conditions also showed some improvement this month, paralleling the improvement in other broad indicators. This month, firms also reported some growth in employment and a longer workweek. The percentage of firms reporting increases in employment (27 percent) was greater than the percentage of firms reporting decreases (14 percent). The index for employment was positive for the third consecutive month and increased 11 points. The average workweek index increased significantly, from -6.0 to 10.9.
Bernanke is now publicly calling China a currency manipulator? Does anyone else get the impression that TPTB are slowly preparing us for a big trade war? I wonder how the new incoming freshmen in congress are going to deal with China. I don't know if all the new R's are pro free trade or pro China or not. . . .
ReplyDeleteMorgan Stanley on why high commodity prices do not translate into higher food prices in America like the rest of the world. This link a good insight also into the strategy of an American investment bank.
ReplyDeleteRichard Berner @ Morgan Stanley:
Commodity food prices are soaring and will soon start to push up food costs for consumers; many commodity quotes are up 20-65% over the past six months. But we estimate that the translation from commodity to retail price hikes will only be about 2-3%, and that the direct impact on overall inflation will amount to just 0.2-0.3%.
Morgan Stanley Global Views
@denise: Won't higher commodity prices ultimately crush the retailer though with slimmer margins, as the retailer is unable to pass on higher costs to the customer? Might this ultimately force some of the retailers out of business?
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteUnless China has something to do with keeping the tax cuts permanent, the incoming congress don't care.
I think that point they are trying to make is that the raw material costs here are small relative to the cost of production, and delivery. So any increase in the price of corn is not going to make the finished goods price spike in price.
ReplyDeleteAnd that when beef prices are high people switch to chicken, causing less demand for beef. (there is an economic term for that but I am too lazy to look it up).
Of course, at some point much higher raw materials cost will translate into increased inflation here in the US.
LOL denise. No kidding. Talk about a one-trick pony. Tax cuts for the rich (and endless chicken-hawks sending others to war) seems to be the only thing that resonates with them. It's actually reached levels of the absurd.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteNot sure how much can be passed along at the wholesale level, either. Then we have stores like Costco, that supposedly by pass some of the middle men, too.
Thor - I do not see any other options for the US then to establish some type of system that helps equalize the trade imbalance.
ReplyDeleteThe US has allowed millions of jobs to go over seas, these jobs paid Americans $$'s but are paying Chinese pennies.
The products are then brought back to the US tarrif free and are sold much cheaper then what they would have been if made in the US.
What is a consumer to do, they will of course buy the cheaper product, which eliminates more US jobs.
If the US had proper imput taxes to begin with the Chinese (Or any other country) would not have been able to take so many US jobs.
Personally I think we should have started placing tarrifs a long time ago.
James
No housing bubble in Hong Kong? $1.8MM for 400 square feet? That had better be the nicest 400 square feet EVER.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/hong-kong-18-million-gets-you-400-sq-feet-and-other-observations-biggest-bubble-ever-dylan-g
@James,
ReplyDeleteBut many of the companies are American so they are reimporting their products made elsewhere. I do not know how the government could put a tariff on that type of thing, or if they already do now.
Manny - Can you imagine when that finally pops? I know space is at an extreme premium in HK, but who could afford that? I read an article last month talking about the very high percentage of vacant condos in Shanghai and Beijing. People were buying them up and just holding them to speculation. The average chinese worker, even in those two cities could not even remotely afford anything in these gleaming new high rises. Mao must be spinning in his tomb. (or is he in a glass casket like Lenin?)
ReplyDeleteIf you think you have trouble selling your house just be thankful you are not these people:
ReplyDelete"The residents are all in fear," said Terry Counley, the village president. "We have this black cloud over the village. Between the economy and the brain cancer, it's very hard to sell a house here."
Even if a buyer comes forward, it doesn't guarantee a sale. About a month ago, an appraiser attached a newspaper story about the possible cancer cluster with the appraisal report to the bank, and the financing fell though, Counley said. It wasn't the first time.
Of the claims of those who lived or worked around McCullom Lake, 18 contracted malignant brain tumors, 13 contracted benign brain tumors and one developed liver problems, documents show.
A village waits … and worries
With no answer from a court, McCullom Lake residents wonder if their fears of a cancer cluster are founded
There are worse things in this world than not being able to sell your house.
@Mutt & denise: It seems as if simply devaluing the dollar (while forcing the Chinese to revalue the Yuan) and hoping that all of a sudden we're going to be able to export enough to spur our economy when those horses had fled the barn a long time ago is wishful thinking now. Wouldn't it take years, if not longer, to reverse the trend of sending manufacturing jobs overseas anyway? It seems to me that our problems are MUCH bigger than simply monkeying with currency and hoping that will somehow fix things.
ReplyDeleteWow denise. If I'm them, I bail no matter how big the losses. Not easy, I know, but losing your life is the ultimate "loss". Time to cut bait. Perception is the only thing that matterss. Once they're labelled a "cancer cluster" or even insinuated as one, it's over for their home values.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteExcept that I think many are middle aged and older, no where to go, not enough money and who would want to go live with a relative or a cheesy apartment? Especially if you have lived there for decades and probably the damage is already done?
This is an example where the EPA should step in and if fault is determined, some one should sue the polluters. Very sad situation.
@Denise: Oh, I agree. Very sad.
ReplyDeleteI hate to sound like Johnny Obvious here, but the more I read that ZH post about Hong Kong housing prices and put it into context with recent events over the past 10-20 years+, the more it seems apparent the biggest malady globally today is this obsession with getting rich quickly. The bottom line is if that obsession takes over, it seems like the result are these insane bubbles one after another. I wonder if there's any way to stop it once this cultural ethos takes hold? I also wonder if this isn't the result of the enormous wealth disparities (along with the media's constant obsession with the rich) that we've seen which thereby distorts the behavior of the masses in this desperate rush or manias to "get rich" (or die trying) because of the altnerative of poverty or at least endless hand-to-mouth living.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteAt the root of all bubbles is an easy monentary policy. Volcker was the only guy who did implement extremely high interest rates to kill inflation in the US and it worked, even though the economy suffered. But high interest rates surely helped savers, too.
If interest rates were 10% back in 2004-5-6 there would have been no housing boom, maybe no sup-prime crisis, either. (I am not an economist, nor do I play one on teevee.)
Bank run in Ireland? "Ghost estates"?
ReplyDeleteSure, things seem fine to me. Recovery onward.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/run-on-allied-irish-banks-customers.html
Agreed Denise, so then why do our policymakers continue to facilitate and even directly cause bubble after bubble after bubble? If was a ZH conspiracy theorist, I would surmise that these are INTENDED when you consider who benefits and who loses during and after these bubbles. Seriously. If it's THIS obvious to us and many others, then why do our policymakers continue down the same rotten path unless this result is somehow intended?
ReplyDeleteI remember my grandmother who was 86 at the time, in 1980, rolling over her CD and telling my uncle to get her a 10 year CD, because she had never seen interest rates that high and would never see them again. I think she got something like 13%, IIRC. She had been a business woman her entire life.
ReplyDeleteShe did live to the ripe old age of 99, which is either the power of positive thinking or determination to see her CD expire.
Election year politics, keeping the economy (housing and stock markets) humming during the pre-election cycle. 2000, 2004, were election years.
ReplyDeleteAnd you are correct, there are many people who create the conditions necessary to initiate bubbles and those same people profit from them. We know that the Silver (and probably Gold) market has recently been manipulated. Can't do that when carrying costs or margins to hold futures contracts are very high.
That is how the Yen carry trade created so many bubbles, as well. It cost almost nothing to borrow yen, and buy assets.
Wow! Was going through realtor.com and on a whim googled my grandparents old house that my grandmother sold in 2005 - it's for sale again and it's up for 300K less than it was sold for. That's got to hurt.
ReplyDeleteYep Denise. The short election cycles (continuous campaigning, elections and endless emotional, pandering rhetoric via the MSM) also greatly contribute to this dynamic.
ReplyDeleteDenise - That is funny, it was probably a little of both :)
ReplyDeleteOf course you should never count out the tenasity of those older women...
Mutt
Mannwich - I have done a lot of reading on what Denise laid out about people creating bubble conditions. But have never put any thought into how election cycles play into it.
ReplyDeleteI think you may be onto something with that. It seems like every stinking year is an election year. And it is either played as "Nothing can be done because it's an election years" or "We need to fear (this or that)"
Mutt
Exactly Mutt. And everything is gamed by both parties around those election cycles. I've also read recently that the GOP thinks that the economy is poised to turn around by 2013 or so (not idea if they'll be right), which means they need to do everything they can to defeat Obama and the Dems in '12 election to gain control by the time it turns (and don't really want it turn any time before that). Get ready for some serious theatrics leading up to '12. It's not going to be fun, but will certainly be filled with even more histrionics and idiocy than we've ever seen before, and that's saying a lot.
ReplyDeleteAnd nobody wants everything to go to shit on their watch, hence it's kick-the-can-uber-alles.
ReplyDeleteSo policies aren't set with the good of the country (insert laugh track here) in mind but set with the mindset of gaining, re-gaining, and/or keep power. It's all a freaking game to them, and we seem to gladly participate as willing peons and pawns.
ReplyDeleteAnd we're just pawns in this game as well. We can't even all agree on what it is we can do to prepare! Cash? Gold? Bullets? :-)
ReplyDelete@Thor: Here's mine. Go enjoy life, be with friends and family as much as possible. And save some powder otherwise known as my bailout if the shit hits the fan (our untapped credit cards).
ReplyDeleteManny - Sounds similar to mine. I have some gold, and some cash. Of course, as a native Californian I have food and bottled water put away in case of an earthquake.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteThere is not much we peons can do to insulate ourselves from economic turbulence, other than to have as little debt as possible, live well below your means, and have some cash instead of assets that can decline in value like stocks. So much is beyond our control.
Yep. I will only rack up debt (all we have is a mortgage now) in times of true economic duress. In that instance, I'd have no regrets about jacking up our debt just to survive. That's when you're supposed to use it, right?
ReplyDeleteOK, I'm bored. Off for a workout. Back later.
ReplyDelete@James,
ReplyDeleteMonetary policy is the most important component, but these cycles are very long term and fairly predictable.
Fiscal policy can also undermine or complement monetary policy, and this is where the battle has been raging.
There are some who believe that fiscal policy is the best method to influence the economy, and some think that monetary policy is the best method.
Me, too!
ReplyDeleteHave a great week everyone!
Mannwich - I have been receiving unsolicited credit card offers from several banks over the past few months.
ReplyDeleteI mostly throw them away, this week I got one from Chase - No Fee, 0% for a year, 5% cash back (On things like groceries) and $100 for the first$500.
I was actually thinking about using that one. I personally think charging food items is one of the dumbest things people can do, but in this case I would just take the amount charged out of my checking account and set it aside so I could pay the entire thing off at the end of the month.
I would get a 5% savings on my food, plus an additional $100 for using their stupid card, my credit rating would go up (It is already in the high 700) then when I could no longer get anything from them, then throw it away.
Mutt
Boring day indeed - flat as a pancake
ReplyDeleteMarket turning up, buyers are hoping for MM - Meltup Monday.
ReplyDeleteI Can
ICAN - Looks like it, people wanting to be in for Monday's bounce. Let's hope they're not disappointed eh?
ReplyDeletePatriotic Millionaires to Obama: Tax us!
ReplyDelete"For the fiscal health of our nation and the well-being of our fellow citizens, we ask that you allow tax cuts on incomes over $1,000,000 to expire at the end of this year as scheduled," their website states. "We make this request as loyal citizens who now or in the past earned an income of $1,000,000 per year or more."
@James,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your kind words. You, Sir, have a great weekend!
ICan
Four commments where released from the spam box from yesterday's comments.Thank you Denise for finding them.
ReplyDeleteMy fault not finding them yesterday I'm half literate about this menues and I never went there before, sooo many comments to sip through but I was at the wrong place.
Question: is there a way to kill that spam box function? hu...no?, it's knee caps...? not either...okay okay a laxative at least?
Dan
Desr Spam Box:
ReplyDeletePlease don't swallow commens on Thursdays.
Pic any other day of the week so when I get back home I don;t have to deal with your gluttony, pick any other day so the other admin will have to deal with your digestive tract. :)
Thank you
hah :-)
ReplyDeleteOur first big winter storm is coming this weekend. Snow on the mountains!
ReplyDelete