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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Far east QE

Hello everybody.

Ok here we are waiting and waiting to see some action in the equity market. Looks like the nov 16 low is the line in the sand for now, and I'm expecting a more decisive move around next Monday.

If the market keeps chopping this week or start moving up slightly till Friday then Monday will see an acceleration to the upside in a new leg up (this is my preferred view).

The less probable view will witness an explosive move up this 4 coming days; in that case next Monday will mean the start of a meaningful correction. Just the inverse of the previous one.

But I don't give a lot of credit to this option due to the failure of nov 17 to be the start of some substantial correction.Particularly because that was a very clean period (astrologically speaking) to generate a move down and what really happened was that the move down got stopped in it's tracks at that time, with an inversion at that critical juncture regarding price action, so up forces weren't challenged then, and could be even harder to be challenge now. Will see.

What about the title?.
Oh, is just a way to remind me to watch facts instead of held a dogmatic worldview.

QE sometimes work.
It didn't in Japan basically because it was tepid and too late in time (protecting all the people who were in charge like a club where the important thing is that someone else got my back and I do the same for others, yes yes exactly you can think it like a club or a maffia if you are more inclined to rotund descriptions).

But in China did.
And doesn't matter if in the future the country, or even the entire world collapses, it just worked period.
I like to learn and discern cause effect among all the crap that MSM uses to mudd the waters.
I learned that the way and scope about how they implemented their strategy worked.

So regardless one personal opinions about keynesian policies that most of the time are not even followed as he prescribed (saving in good times) his ideas put in practice sometimes work.
China taught me that.

Dan

132 comments:

  1. Few days ago I mentioned that N. Korea and S. Korea are neighbours in the island where the conflict erupted. My mistake actually only S. Korea inhabit the island the North just peppered it from the mainland.
    Dan

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  2. Dan,

    Food for thought, great post.

    I always like to look at what is there rather than what the media, market gurus, pundits or favorite bloggers tell me is there. Knowing what to look for is the most important clue to solving the puzzle. Analyzing cause and effect but without the media filters.

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  3. Thanks Dan for sharing your thoughts in a clear way.

    One sidenote that "makes sense"(rare enough to see rationality in the markets to be worth mentioning):European places show relative weakness compared to US market. My place (Paris, CAC40) is down 9.6% from early november "top", vs SP500 being down only 4.5%.European bears having fun right now.

    I see a rally coming today in French stocks (lots of stocks showing 10min bullish divergences), but I'm still clinging to further correction in global markets before next move up.

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  4. @jeff,

    Good trade -UUP.

    I Can

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  5. @Dan,

    Confused, I am today. Looking at currencies - CAD movement is saying Euro is in trouble, but far east is ok.

    CAD/ Aud, HKD, JPY is red

    CAD/EUR, GBP is green.

    I Can

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  6. Hhhhhmmm, correction not over maybe? Is this going to be a slow grind downward?

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  7. EMA(50) 1174. Tested and held


    Will it close at 40dma again

    I Can

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  8. @Dastro

    I agree. As soon as the media figures out the Geuro is not so bad (oh, I misspelled, I meant Euro) then I think the dollar will turn around and we'll see your push upwards.

    I am still full of bull. I believe in the Bernank
    However, the 3LB tells me to go short and ride that trend, because the trend has turned on the S&P. See the daily 3LB for SPY.

    Last night, I was pretty tired, and I passed out, but I woke up at 4:50, just in time to see the VXX turn around, so I bought 200 shares and went to bed. I probably should stop sleeping in this chair; not so good for my leg circulation. Anyway, the VXX on the 60 min chart had a double bottom at 43, and now we've got one higher low and one higher high. If I don't see it drop below 46 and start up again, I will add to the initial position.

    But I've got my buys queued up when the 3LB tells me we've got a turn back up.

    Did you see TIF and COH and JWN? All outperforming the S&P by alot. TIF looks pretty good to me. And besides, they gave me coffee....

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  9. Nice post, Dan. I think the answer to a lot of complex things is the old academic stand-by, "it depends".

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  10. Canadian economy slows to 1% in the third quarter, while India's gdp was around 8%. That's why, maybe, the Loonie is heading East, not resting in Europe.

    I Can

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  11. Good thing we bailed out our corrupt financial services companies. What would we do without these guys? The bottom line is they KNOW from past experience they're untouchable so they're going to do anything they want.

    Here's the key passage:

    One thing they stress is that a significant number of their clients facing foreclosure has made every single mortgage payment. . Read that again.
    Now how can that be? How can that square with the banks’ assertion that in every instance, their foreclosures were warranted, that the borrower was hopelessly behind?
    It’s actually very simple. It’s called servicing errors and fraud. And whether by mistake or design, when a borrower gets caught in the servicer hall of mirrors of compounding fees and charges, there is no way to appeal and pretty much no way out.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/11/servicer-driven-foreclosures-the-perfect-crime.html

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  12. @Jeff,

    Which bank will it be? Did you see the survey question at the top hand side of the site.

    I Can

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  13. @Rock,

    See Google chart and the gap down.

    I Can

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  14. Please vote in our poll! Which bank will be targeted by the Wikileaks!

    This will be quite interesting if something criminal is revealed.

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  15. @dss,

    No news, just the chart, and the gap below.

    I Can

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  16. @DSS,

    Re Google - buying Groupon -

    Marketwatch.com - shares drop on buyout.

    I Can

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  17. Euro buying PMs, soft commodities, U$D today.

    Cotton is doing good today.

    U$D and soft commodities are both up.

    I Can

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  18. Ok, I remember reading that yesterday.

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  19. @mannwich:

    I solved this a long long time ago, when I had a death in my family and missed a payment as a result. Now, I simply maintain a credit with every debt company I use. For example, I maintained a one-month-in-advance when I had a mortgage....It's no problem. Basically, you save 1/6 of your payment every month, then 6 months later make 2 payments.

    My credit card companies hate me. They send me hate mail and often send checks. I simply keep the autopayments going larger than my debt.

    It's not a bad system, but it does mean you have to pay as you go. Which my parents taught me to believe in.

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  20. Dan excellent post! I like the mention of QE as well. Agree that for China it worked, and worked spectacularly well! Will be interesting to see if they can get their inflation under control. Everything seems balanced on the knife blade lately.

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  21. @ICan

    It may be the gap down in GOOG may be due to a leak about DOJ and antitrust activities. Of course I don't know anything, I'm just saying. When you have a monopoly, you may come under DOJ scrutiny.

    Gosh, do you think GOOG's big enough to have monopolistic policies?

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  22. @Rock: We pay more than the minimum payment on our mortgage to hopefully alleviate that potential problem as well but why should people have to do this? How is this any different than an organized crime cartel?

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  23. I think it's BAC as well. Regarding that mortgage mess that was revealed few weeks back.

    I Can

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  24. According to what I read, it is someone who was bailed out, which means all of them, but GS is now a bank, too.

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  25. We all knew about Asian inflaton and PIIGS' problems for more than a year now. So what's the fuss?

    Or, the trading desks at major banks at WallStreet bored?

    I Can

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  26. Rock, I like your ideas on paying down your mortgage. I've always made at least an extra payment a year on my house as well. I had closed my last credit card about two years ago but recently opened a new one about seven months ago because not having any credit cards actually dropped my credit score by about a hundred points! Total scam.

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  27. @Thor: Just keep the card(s) you use the most for points and the ones with no or the lowest annual fees and pay them off every month. That's what we do and I'm sure they hate us for it. You might be glad you kept some personal bailout, I mean, ahem, "powder" dry for an emergency.

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  28. "Canadian Spy Secrets Exposed in WikiLeaks Dump".www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics


    Give it a few days, when this news shows up in ethnic newspapers.

    Houston, we have a problem.

    I Can

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  29. Manny - hah, personal bailout, I like that! Yeah, I keep an AMEX I use for hotel points now. I do what Rock does, just have the balance auto paid off every month.

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  30. Again, Mannwich is right on.

    However, one card I keep which has high interest and high yearly fees is my AAAdvantage CitiCard Mastercard.

    This card has a feature that you can take out a temporary credit card number with a specific maximum value and/or a specific timeframe. Anything I buy over the net uses this feature. I pay for my Skype and all yearly subscription services using this feature. PayPal won't take a virtual number, so I just don't use PayPal, which I believe will be hacked someday soon.

    In my business, I've seen how easily many security systems can be invaded. There is no way I will put my card's real number or image out there over the net.

    I had only one illegal action: I took out a card number good for $500 for 2 weeks when I drove from SF to LA and back. I used it to buy gas, and a week later got a call from Citi asking me if I'd used the card again, and that its time was up. They caught the guys, and I wasn't out one dime, nor was Citi.

    It's called "Virtual Card Number". I recommend it highly.

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  31. ICAN - Those leaks have been fascinating haven't they? I'll bet the disgruntled soldier who stole them all never though he might be hung for doing so. And I do think they could eventually hang this guy.

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  32. @ICan:

    I have read more than I want of the cables of wikileaks.

    You have to consider the source.

    Every communication I read was from some junior technitian-level individual. Credibility is in question in most, maybe all, of the comms that were leaked. I researched one, and there is absolutely no way the individual would have had clearance to have personal knowledge of the information he/she was communicating. That means it's a guess. Maybe an informed guess, but a guess.

    Don't believe everything you read. And certainly don't believe everything the MSM tells you.

    There may be some that are legit, but you can be sure many if not most are watercooler talk.

    So that is a problem of a different nature: why are these people gossiping? I guess it's human nature.

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  33. @Rock,

    The link I provided writes about Canadian Security and Intelligence Services(CSIS) head meeting with his U.S. counterpart and discussing Middle East terrorist groups in Canada.

    CSIS head calls Canadians and Judges who are sympathetic to "terrorist" as people living in "wonderland". Also, the CSIS admitting how they are harrasing a certain group.

    I Can

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  34. @ICan:

    I've already spent too much time on this. The article does not say they are in possession of the 2000 word report, only that "it discusses". Be careful how you read this stuff.

    If they actually had the 2000 word report, don't you think they'd quote it? It's likely they got a communication describing the report and what the writer believes might be the content.

    I'm not saying what is going on or not going on, but the wording of articles like this lead me to believe they do not have the source, and cannot quote it, which makes the accuracy suspect. The article could be written simply to sell newspapers.

    Remember my quote: "Next to Newspapers, cut-and-paste is the largest impediment to independent thought." One of the things that has to be learned is how to read stuff like this.

    Same as financial statements by corporations.

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  35. Wow, what a boorrrring market today. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....

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  36. Off topic, but a good read nonetheless. On our eras infatuation with what the article calls "aggressive ignorance"

    Today Unenlightenment Is Worn Proudly

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  37. "And when ignorance was something we did not celebrate."

    Amen to that. Great article, Thor. I am not sure that I totally agree with the premise that the internet is totally to blame, but the trusted sources that people used to get their information from became corrupt and beholden to their corporate advertisers and ideologues that own massive stakes in the media and their reporting reflected their bias.

    Media concentration is as much to blame as the internet; when only six major corporations (many of them espousing right wing values which depend upon the ignorance of the rubes that listen to them) control all media, it is no surprise that we find ourselves celebrating ignoramuses.

    Another turning point was during and after the Viet Nam war when it was revealed that our government was lying to us and the media on a daily basis that many turned against both the media and government.

    When a news caster representing CNN, CNBC, ABC, FOX, etc. can tell lies and pass it off as "news" without repercussion there was no turning back.

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  38. Denise - I know, and that's something that scares me about our future. If the people on the far right seem to be espousing willful ignorance as an acceptable way of life, and these people are becoming more and more powerful all the time, how can we ever fix things? I hate to bring up politics, but why someone like Sara Palin asks "if my lawyers can stop a web site from publishing excerpts from my book, why can't the government stop wikipedia?" and not be immediately laughed off the public stage for her very public and embarrassing ignorance is a mystery to me.

    I suppose this "movement" if you want to call it that, at it's core, gives people an excuse for their own ignorance.

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  39. And then we have this

    President Barack Obama emerged this afternoon from a two-hour meeting with Democratic and Republican congressional leaders at the White House saying he was encouraged by a mutual commitment to compromise — and announced he has assigned two cabinet officials to hammer out a deal with them to extend Bush-era tax cuts before the end of the year.

    "The American people didn't vote for gridlock," Obama said after the much anticipated meeting, which went on longer than expected.


    I have one word for O at this point.

    Coward

    I'll be glad when this failure is finally out of office. God help us on who the next idiot in the Whitehorse is going to be.

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  40. Today looks a lot like yesterday. History repeats, at least until the last hour.

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  41. German and French Banks hold 600 BILLION in Spanish debt. This should be pretty interesting.

    Manny, I've been hearing a lot of people on radio and TV news talking openly about how the Irish bailout is really a bailout for mostly German banks.

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  42. Love MSM headlines - "Euro getting slammed"

    I thought perhaps we were nearing 1.19 again!

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  43. Thor - Wouldn't it be funny if Sarah Palin is our next president - I mean that in a Sad way of being funny.

    Mutt

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  44. @Thor,

    In normal times, voting against extending unemployment benefits for 2 million folks in the name of deficit reduction in favor of keeping the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy which adds 700 billion to to deficit would be so improbable as to be science fiction. Yet these same clowns are proposing the same and Obama is going along with it "to compromise".

    Where's the fucking compromise? I have to laugh again and again as people try to paint Obama as some pinko liberal socialist. He is a socialist in the manner of Clinton when Clinton reformed welfare in the 1990's.

    Let them eat cake!

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  45. @Mutt,

    If she does get into office, which I doubt will happen considering that the big guns of the Republican party are against her, she will be just another figure head like Bush. She likes the pomp and circumstance and flying around in the big jet, governing, not so much.

    She makes Bush look like an impressive statesman with a powerful intellect. At least he had his father to consult, Palin has Todd!

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  46. Denise - agreed! The most glaring hypocrisy in this whole thing are these long drawn out fights over extending unemployment benefits. We somehow have to find a way to pay for extending aid to people who can't find jobs, but we don't need to find a way to pay for 700 billion in tax cuts!

    I'm ALL for cutting the budgets, I'm all for cutting spending, I'm all for rolling back tax cuts for everyone. This blatant pandering to the wealthiest among us is going to end with heads on pikes if they don't get a handle on this.

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  47. @Thor
    Hillary for President!

    Um, I think I said that before.

    But I wonder if she still wants the job.

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  48. @Rock,

    She would not have been much different than Obama, but she sure is a hell of a lot tougher than he has turned out to be. That is the problem, Obama is governing from the center, and no other Democrat who could have been elected would have been different in a substantive way. Remember when Obama's Iraq vote was something that made him unique?

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  49. "Speaking to Andy Greenberg of Forbes, Assange said the leak -- to be unveiled early in 2011 -- "will give a true and representative insight into how banks behave at the executive level in a way that will stimulate investigations and reforms."

    It would blow the lid off an "ecosystem of corruption," he added.

    The Australian-born Wikileaks chief predicted it would be as damaging as the Enron emails, which brought the powerful Houston-based energy company to its knees and led to its bankruptcy."

    I have to agree with BR here, very little will shock anyone and very little will be done about what is revealed. How can you take down a zombie bank anyway?

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  50. @Mutt: It would be somewhat amusing if we didn't have to live here and the U.S. didn't have nukes. And lots of them.

    Ditto Denise. It's part and parcel of the GOP's temper tantrum emotional strategy they play with the populace and with Dems. Paint Dems as "socialists" and "commies" and the wimpy Dems will always cave. ALWAYS. They are the biggest bunch of cowards and wimps I've ever seen. The part of wimps, for wimps, and by wimps.

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  51. @Dss
    I don't know exactly how to say this. I'd hate to have my comment deleted by Thor, and I most certainly mean no disrespect, but when you say she would not have been much different, you have no idea. I don't know if you ever read Judy Johnson's book about Hillary, but that's quite a read and might give you some other insight.

    I think Hillary would make a hell of a President.

    If she would run, then I could realize a dream: I would have voted for a Black and a Woman for president.

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  52. Denise - Same here, Asange is more than a little naive when it comes to public impressions of the banking industry as it exists today!

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  53. Thor - I believe the Regan era tax cuts were at first good, just like lowing intrest rates can be good. But the longer those tax cuts (interest rates)got extended the more they wanted and it became increasingly difficult to end them.

    IMHO - Unemployement insurance should only be a stop gap of a few months not a life style and unfortunatly far too many people have become dependant on it over the past couple years.

    I definatly believe we NEED to raise taxes on those who hold the most wealth and I also feel unemployement benifits should not be extend out indefinatly.

    Mutt

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  54. @Rock: Your opinion on that certainly isn't delete-worthy! I NOW think Hillary probably would have been better than Obama on most fronts (sadly), but she's part of the problem too, IMO. The differences would have been minor, at best, I think. I certainly think she's MUCH, MUCH tougher than he is and would been against attacks by the GOP, but she would have done just about the same things with the Wall Street crowd, I think. Which is, not much different than the O man did. Just my opinion, of course.

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  55. @Rock,

    How would she have been different than Obama? I will read Johnson's book, thanks.

    Please feel free to disagree with me anytime without fear of being deleted. Disagreement is welcome; ridicule, mockery, insults, and intimidation is not.

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  56. @Mutt,

    What would you have those people do whose unemployment insurance has run out? Any solutions? I am not suggesting that it become a way of life and there are abuses in all government programs, but in some areas of the country there are no jobs and this just isn't any normal recession.

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  57. Obama basically chose all of the former Clinton-ites, likely partially out of fear of the backlash from them and their crowd, namely the elites, who run everything. She'd have only been tougher with the GOP politically, and a FAR better political tactician, with her hubby as a mentor on that front. Regarding policy, I can't see how it would have been all that much different.

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  58. @dss: Not to mention that many can't easily sell their homes and move even if they wanted to in order to find the supposed jobs that ARE available. It's a VERY complex problem.

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  59. Rock - In all fairness, Thor DID NOT!! delete some of the comments, he was accused of deleting, they simply got stuck in the spam filter.

    The timing on that sucked, but it is what it is.

    The other comments where deleted because they were inflamitory and meant in a disrespectful way so publicly support him on that.

    PLEASE feel free to express your opinion, I do and I can be completely Politcally INCORRECT!!!!

    Mangy Mutt

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  60. @Manny,

    Most people feel she would have been a very good president, but in her policies I just don't see where she would have been so much better than Obama. Plus people didn't want to have to relive the constant GOP barrage against her and Bill.

    Many of the abuses that contributed to the financial meltdown happened on Clinton's watch, how much would she have repudiated those policies? I think her response would have been similar. And she would have been working with the same blue dog Dems in the Senate.

    At this point I don't think any credible Democrat would have done that much better than Obama.

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  61. Plus how would she have handled a 2nd health care reform attempt after her 1st failed attempt? Or Free Trade, or DADT? She voted for the Iraq war, etc. Too much baggage.

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  62. Sorry I meant that previous comment as "So I publicy support him"

    Mutt

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  63. I think Rock may have been kidding :-) If not, Rock, I only ever deleted one comment back at the other place and that was it. Look at all the drama that one deleted comment started!

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  64. Where she would have great credibility (if she would use it against the Republicans because no one else will) is in the tax increases for the wealthy which no Republican voted for and helped to balance the budget, create surpluses, etc.

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  65. MEH (The expression, not the person) - Obama won the presidency, we're stuck with him now, and most likely for the next 6 years. I never thought Americans would be foolish enough to elect Dubya twice, we all know how that ended up.

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  66. I was the one who deleted most of the objectionable comments, not Thor, as they were aimed at me.

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  67. @Thor,

    Obama could be another Carter or Bush I. Easily.
    He is just not that popular anymore and there are plenty of people who think that we need to toss out all incumbents.

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  68. So much depends upon the economy. Many things can be forgiven if one has a job.

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  69. Agreed, Denise, but the attacks on Obama by the GOP have been ten times worse than the ones on her husband, so I don't think it matters anymore which Dem is in charge. The GOP will always play their spoiled little children attack-dog role and will do everything to ruin that person's likelihood of success regardless of which Dem is president. It's all a game to them to "WIN" and a big power grab, so they'll do anything to "WIN", even if the country is harmed in the process.

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  70. Manny - Here here! Compromise is now dead. If the tax "compromise" coming down the pike isn't evidence of that, I don't know what is.

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  71. Denise - There is no easy answer for extended un-employment, but I believe that when in a place of comfort, most people will not act on their own.

    I am not saying getting unemployement makes ones life "Comforatable" but it does allow people to maintain a certain standard of living (All be it, lower then what they are use to) which causes people to not act, because they know if they do nothing but the minimume they will still have enuff money to pay for food and a few other things.

    Without this extended safety net people would be forced to act, which would then (hopefully) force TPTB to act differently.

    Mutt

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  72. Mutt - ok, I'll bite with that. So what would you propose? To fix the problem with these folks who aren't acting on their own? I would argue that for every 5 of those people, there are 10 who are in real need and have been trying to, but are unable to find a job.

    Do we cut off all those other folks along with the one's who may not be acting because they are getting support for the government?

    What would you have all of these people do? You can't cut them off and just assume they're going to get jobs, especially in states like CA, and MI with unemployment numbers in the teens. How will we feed the truly needy people once their benefits are cut off? How will the heat their homes? Should we allow them to starve?

    I will agree with you that there are people who aren't looking for jobs because of those benefits (I have a close friend who did exactly that). But the majority of these people really need help. I don't think it's fair to cut all of them off just to "fix" the problem with the others.

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  73. Also - allowing people to literally go hungry will absolutely lead to a revolution at this point. People are angry enough at the government as it is, if people get the impression that the government is going to allow people to actually go hungry when there are no jobs for them . . . .

    That's not a society I want to live in.

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  74. @Manny,

    Have you forgotten the little matter of impeachment? And the years of talking about the blue dress, Clinton's love affairs, Monica Lewinsky, the Starr report, etc.?

    Obama never had to go through even close to what Clinton did by the Republican party. The object was the same, to discredit the Democrat but Clinton subjected to MUCH worse than Obama. It was eight long years!

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  75. Mutt,

    Could you survive on $295 a week? Who could support a family on that? It doesn't allow them to maintain a certain standard of living, it keeps them from from starving or freezing to death in their cars.

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  76. TPTB have already demonstrated that they have no interest in hiring people, or extending any benefits, corporations gleefully proclaim when they lay off thousands of workers (like the CEO of US Steel) or move their operations to India or China that they are increasing profits.

    The one thing we can count on in this world is that corporations act to enrich their owners and they don't give a rat's ass about the rest of the country.

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  77. He hasn't YET, denise. Remember, all those things happened during Clinton's SECOND term when the GOP had a majority in the House. Important distinction. I would venture to guess the GOP is just getting started on poor old weak Obama. You ain't seen nuthin' yet.

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  78. What we've seen thus far from the GOP is merely a preview of what's to come vs. the O man.

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  79. Clinton lost the house and the senate in 1994. They were out to get him the day he was inaugurated. I think you forgot about White Water, Vince Foster, etc.

    By 1994, the Whitewater “scandal” about an obscure Clinton real-estate investment had become front-page news and a Republican-controlled judicial panel had picked former Reagan-Bush-41 appointee Kenneth Starr to head up an aggressive investigation into the Clintons’ personal finances – and later into their private life.

    The Only Republican Plan Is to Destroy Democrats, Not Solve Problems

    I agree, we have at least two more years of them trying to destroy Obama, but Clinton was under attack from his earliest days. (much of it self inflicted)

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  80. @denise: Fair enough, but the issue is the Dems TAKE it from the GOP time and time again, so they're at least partially to blame by now for being such a wimpy, cowardly party that sells out its voters EVERY time they find it politically expedient, which is basically always.

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  81. @Mutt,

    The other real difference today is that corporations and businesses are now not hiring the unemployed, they only want to hire people who already have a job, as if being out of work some how taints the applicants.

    People who worked 30 years cannot find work due to their age.

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  82. @Manny,

    Oh, no doubt about that. They sell out at every opportunity. At least go down fighting, but we know very well they are more interested in campaign contributions than fighting for what is right. When was the last time the Dems had a fighter?

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  83. @Mutt: I'm somewhat sympathetic to what you're saying, and actually have some people that I know who appear to be hanging out longer than they should on unemployment (and not as actively looking for work as they probably should be, given their situation), but I think for the most part people would truly prefer to work rather than make a few hundred bucks a week doing nothing, while tapping their 401k funds and credit cards. The problem is that many aren't qualified for many of the jobs that are out there, or are vastly overqualified (a HUGE problem) for the ones that are and are ignored by employers (and perceived to be "too old"), so it's a tough transition to a new career and job, if not impossible for many.

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  84. @denise: Just bought "Death of the Liberal Class" by Chris Hedges. Will let you know what I think after reading it, but there was a great interview clip with him posted on Naked Capitalism recently. I think he honestly nails it with his analysis of the issue in that the liberal elites have been fully co-opted into the wider elite and have sold out the very people they've long claimed to help.

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  85. More "stress tests" in Europe! Keep in mind Ireland recently passed their most recent "stress test" this past July. LOL. The Theater of the Absurd coming to a country near you.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/europe-update-and-more.html

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  86. By the way, a major backlash is brewing here in Minneapolis where some property tax bills went up 17-18% in the face of stagnant (at best) housing valuations. Mine "only" went up 10%. Unreal. I'm beginning to think we should have sold when the sucker home buyer tax credits were being offered to buyers. A neighbor of ours sold her house in less than a week and is happily renting over by Lake Calhoun in a nice apartment building with a health club and pool, and other amenities, sans the headaches of homeownership. Ugh.

    Apparently phones were literally ringing "off the hook" in city offices when those were received last week.

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  87. What is this?! Disagreement? I'm going to delete all these comments! We all think alike people divergent views will not be tolerated!

    Joking :-)

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  88. LOL Thor! What happened to our "little knitting circle"?!? I'm outta here! ;-)

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  89. Hah - I always thought that accusation was a funny one, I know you all pretty well after almost two years and I know we all disagree in quite a bit

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  90. There are no easy answers, no one in The United States should starve to death or go without basic needs, including health care. And most of the people who are unemployed got there by no fault of their own.

    We did not get in this mess over night, we will not get out of it over night either. I have a good buddy of mine who is quite over weight, he has been struggling to loose the weight however when he eats properly for a couple days he expects to step on the scale and see results. He is forgetting it took him years to reach his current weight, so it will take hard work and effort to get to and maintain the best weight for him.

    As a society we are not much different, we expect and hope for change to come quickly, it wont, but I also do not believe proper change will come without hard work and dedication. And as long as maintaining the status que is easier to do then making change, most people will just maintain.

    If people just maintain, nothing will change. If people are forced to act then it becomes more painful for them, but it also makes things more painful for the people making decision.

    We have people going on 2 plus years of unemployment and hoping it will be continued.

    Heck I do not know what the best answer is, it just does not seem like keeping things the way they are is what is best.

    Mutt

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  91. If anyone is going to knite something for the Mutt for Christmas I would like a Snuggie.

    Thanks Soooooooo kindly.

    Mangy Mutt

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  92. I agree, Mutt. People don't stay with things and expect immediate results right away, or else they throw in the towel, hence our extremes with everything. That's definitely true with one's weight or health.

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  93. Plenty of disagreements to go around. Nice to have a decent discussion without having to have professors demanding that you pass their exams out of one side of their mouth while insulting you out of the other.

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  94. @Mutt,

    Like many things there are no clear answers and someone is always going to be unhappy with decisions made for such a large group of people scattered all over the US. It used to be that when people were out of work they were embarrassed and couldn't get another job fast enough because of the stigma and the standard of living was much lower so there was very little that stood between your family eating or not. My dad, being a tradesman, had 8 mouths to feed and he was often out of work; we suffered until he would ask his mother for some grocery money or could get a side job. People were proud back then but it is not always the case now. Of course, one man could support his whole family and not need two incomes to do it.

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  95. @Rock,

    I can't find a book by Judy Johnson about Hillary. Maybe you are thinking of a different author?

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  96. Denise - I think you bring up a good point on pride. I have taken several jobs that were "below" me just so I could earn a pay check. I would rather dig a ditch and make my own dollar then ask someone else to feed my family.

    Now don't get me wrong unemployement insurance has a very important place and when used properly is a God send to those who need it.

    But when it is extended on indefinately and allows the vast majority of people on it to not need to motivate themselves to dig a ditch, or work at 7-11 or whatever, then there is a problem with the over all concept of it.

    We (Tax payers) are the ones paying for these benifits - Which then begs the questions; Which Americans are currently not paying their fair share of taxes? Would that be the Uber Rich and corparate America?

    If it is them - then aren't they the ones who have hired slave labor in China and India to compete against American jobs?

    If that is the case then it would seem fair that a special "Employment" tax be placed upon them, for every 2 American jobs they off shored they pay for 1 American yearly income.

    Yea yea that is an over simplification and full of holes, but if Corporate America was forced to pay for extended unemployement insurance, I bet we would have a LOT more employed Americans.

    Why should we the tax payer have to pay for the mess that Corporate America caused?

    Mutt

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  97. When one spends many years living ABOVE their means, one will eventually be forced to live below their means. That is an economic certainty.

    If one lives in a state "where there are no jobs," perhaps it's time to move to a state (or country) where there are some jobs.

    There are plenty of jobs out there, they're just not the ones people "want" to take. Many people believe they "deserve" a certain pay range or "deserve" a certain type of job after they get laid off. Nobody has "right" to a job.

    Let's be clear: no one wants to be on unemployment or Food stamps. It's a necessary temporary safety net for those who experience unexpected loss. However, it shouldn't last for 2, 3, 4 years. When people are faced with the prospects of losing the government assistance, it's remarkable what kind of work they'll begin taking. In fact, it's a necessary mechanism in the process of getting out of this recession.

    This Nation, and many of its inhabitants, lived well above their means for many years. It's time to pay the piper. Unfortunately, there is no easy way out.

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  98. Ron Paul -

    We should not be talking about cutting of unemployment insurance for people who haven't been able to find work (or are too lazy and dependent on the government to try) as a way to save money. How much money are we talking about saving exactly? Let's take the entire number of long term unemployed about 2 million, let's say that half (an extreme exaggeration) of these people are not looking for work because they are happy being on the government tit. How much have we spent do you think on those 1 million people?

    Once you find that number, compare it to the amount of money we spend per day in fighting these two useless wars. Compare to the amount of money we are going to spend on the next aircraft carrier (apparently 11 aren't enough) and then get back to me.

    This whole argument about ending long term unemployment is a joke. It's a ruse put upon The Sheeple to keep their eyes off the real criminals.

    Enough of this bullshit war between the left and the right, our real enemies are not eachother "Ron" they are the uber wealthy, they are the military industrial complex. Let's turn some of that righteous indignation hidden between the lines of your rant in the proper direction shall we?

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  99. I'm just sick of this whole "blame the lazy poor" mentality. Manny - this is Stockholm Syndrome at it's worst.

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  100. Corporations are paying the smallest amount of tax in history, I like your plan, Mutt.

    As far as moving out of state so many folks are under water on their homes that they can't sell and their lenders won't do a short sale, so their mobility doesn't allow them to move.

    Plus how many unemployed people with families are able to leave their state, much less their country, to find work, and then pay for moving costs, new home or crummy apartment? Not many and even fewer have the resources left since they spent their savings and cashed in their retirement accounts.

    Not sure that there are plenty of jobs out there. Why are so many older people unemployed if there are so many jobs out there? They have the experience, the work history, yet they cannot find a job.

    Why do some job openings have thousands of applicants if jobs are so plentiful? Not to mention that the new way to screw the American worker is to not hire anyone who is unemployed, only people with jobs are considered.

    There are no easy answers to this mess.

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  101. Is your first name your last or your last your first?November 30, 2010 at 9:37 PM

    Ron Paul - Forgive me for not calling you "Honorable". maybe ya is and maybe ya isn't, but that is besides the point...

    What you just said above was well stated and to the point.

    The only exeception I can make is; (people) "lived well above their means for many years" (So now) "It's time to pay the piper"

    Oh that is true, but what is missing is they were allowed to live well above thier means. Had credit been given out in a way that rewarded the responsible and punished the greedy we would not be in this mess so deeply.

    Yet the lions share of bail outs is going to the banks who allowed and incouraged the wrecklessness in the first place.

    So not only are we the tax payers being asked to pay for extended unemployement benifits for jobs that were sent out of country, us tax payers are also being asked (LOL- on the word "Asked") fix the mess that banks helped create.

    Without access to unlimited credit, most of those who spent years living beyond their means would not have been able to.

    Mangy Mutt

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  102. America at it's finest, blaming the poor! Takes the spot light off of the real criminals.

    Just like Reagan's old campaign speech about seeing welfare queens with Caddy's, which turned out to be a big load of bullshit he or his handlers made up.

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  103. Denise - The number of jobs out there... I truly don't know, but I do believe there a plenty of jobs that a person could get. So I agree with Paul Ron's "There are plenty of jobs out there, they're just not the ones people "want" to take. Many people believe they "deserve" a certain pay range or "deserve" a certain type of job after they get laid off. Nobody has "right" to a job."

    Mutt

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  104. Damn Poor people anywayNovember 30, 2010 at 9:43 PM

    Yea those damn poor people, it's all their fault for being poor.

    Heck I blame my father cause he was poor when he had me and now I am poor too, he should have been rich then I would be rich too.

    Grrrrrrrr - Poor People....


    Mutt

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  105. Denise, I know, it's ludicrous. We didn't get into the mess we're in now because of the poor. Oh no, it was our finest, America's wealthy who brought the entire country to it's knees. Our survival as a nation is at stake here and the people responsible for this mess are not only not in jail, they're still in power. We just handed control of the House to the political party most aligned with this group, the very same party that is STILL telling us that all we need to do is cut taxes and lessen regulation.

    The powers that be must be laughing at their cleverness. They've finally got Americans to be THIS fucking stupid. Jesus, people admire Sara Palin BECAUSE she's an anti-intellectual.

    GRRRRR

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  106. Where is the demand for corporations to move their jobs back to where the American people are instead of employing non-Americans in other countries?

    Our US corporations sold America and Americans down the river and now everyone is paying the price, except for them. They are richer than ever, have the highest profits in their history and live like Kings and they pay the smallest amount of corporate taxes in history, yet they whine for more.

    I always find it interesting when people demonize the victims of corporate greed instead of the perpetrators. Says a lot about good ole boy Texas mentality of Ron Paul and his supporters.

    Just like his idiot anti-government son who was taking gladly taking Medicare money making him a millionaire.

    Always good to look at the income source of those who whine the most, they make their living off the government and then they don't want to pay their fair share of the tax burden that pays their salary.

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  107. @Mutt,

    Not sure that there are "lots" of jobs that people can get. Manny could weigh in on this. Sure, there are some jobs out there, but many employers with lower paying jobs will not hire people who are over qualified. Then of course, there is Thor's company who seems to be the outlier.

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  108. @Thor,

    Now, that is just heresy. Everyone knows that the poor people are to blame for everything. Greedy, lazy, bastards. Plus the poor have to be pretty fancy talkers to get people to loan them all that money that they used to live it up! Now the poor can simply close their bank accounts, sell their McMansions and move to the state or country where they can once again smooth talk their way into all of those jobs that are just there for the asking, you know the good paying secure jobs with the health insurance and 401k's? Those are the jobs that the corporations SAVE just for the POOR!

    Good grief, I need a drink.

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  109. I guess "dissent" is only OK amongst the members of the circle.

    Where in my note did a I "blame" the poor for anything? Where in my note did I write that corporate CEOs were blameless? Why invoke my son in anything that was written? Why not simply address the comments that were written? Does anyone actually have a problem with any single statement that was written? Or, will every counterargument begin and end with diatribes on items not even addressed in what was discussed? One can tell much about the strength of others' arguments by the rhetoric upon which they rely.

    For what it's worth, I've railed against the Military Industrial Complex and the Federal Reserve for many years now.

    They should both be dismantled immediately.

    It seems there is no room for Ron Paul in this discussion circle. Back to Galveston I go.

    Thanks for not deleting my one comment.

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  110. Oh for heaven's sake. I knew that was coming. CV, you just don't give up man do you? That's some serious stalker behavior there buddy ;-)

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  111. And please explain this statement

    "I guess "dissent" is only OK amongst the members of the circle."

    How is our engaging you in debate in any way disallowing or discouraging dissent? I'd like to hear your rationale for this. Is anyone who doesn't agree with, are argues with you a person who doesn't like dissent? We're arguing with you because we don't agree with your opinions, it has nothing at all to do with trying to silence dissent, it's called a debate. These silly false accusations are getting stale, if we can't convince you to leave us in peace, can we at least get you to change your theme up a little more often? For varieties sake?

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  112. As if we have to take anything coming from "Ron Paul" seriously.

    It seems like if "One can tell much about the strength of others' arguments by the rhetoric upon which they rely" then certainly "one" can discern that no one cares about seriously responding to someone who calls himself Ron Paul because he is too ashamed to put his real name on the comment.

    We all know that this will not end well, so why bother?

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  113. It's difficult to discern debate amongst comments like this:

    "I always find it interesting when people demonize the victims of corporate greed instead of the perpetrators. Says a lot about good ole boy Texas mentality of Ron Paul and his supporters.

    Just like his idiot anti-government son who was taking gladly taking Medicare money making him a millionaire."

    That's some pretty rough lingo directed at my family....thought that sort of 'nastiness' wasn't allowed 'round these parts.

    and this:

    "The powers that be must be laughing at their cleverness. They've finally got Americans to be THIS fucking stupid. Jesus, people admire Sara Palin BECAUSE she's an anti-intellectual."

    and this:

    "Good grief, I need a drink."

    And this sort of histrionic diatribe:

    "America at it's finest, blaming the poor! Takes the spot light off of the real criminals."
    --

    We're OK here. Was just sensing some hostility towards my commentary--thought this was becoming a more civil crowd. Thanks for the discussion. Was interested in seeing the response to my thoughts on certain ideas. And, it was an interesting response.

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  114. Hey, has anyone noticed that Julian Asange looks a hell of a lot like the Dyson Vacuum cleaner guy?

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  115. Sorry, I thought I would lighten the "mood" ;-)

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  116. No disernable debateDecember 1, 2010 at 1:07 AM

    Hey, Ron, that's some serious sense you have there, pardner! So I see we are into the big three syllable words, too! And a triple alliteration! See, I can do it, too!

    Glad to know that you are ok. (Hey Thor, was it even one whole week?) Everyone can see you came here and nothing changed, you are still an asshole and we still could care less about your attempts to "debate".

    Woo hoo!

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  117. Looking like a Dyson Vacuum would suck.

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  118. One of the hostile crowdDecember 1, 2010 at 1:09 AM

    Thor,

    He is going to need a vacuum cleaner before this is all over.

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  119. Pass me the knitting needleDecember 1, 2010 at 1:26 AM

    Hrmmm... Ghee I thought I WAS debating, but I guess those comments don't matter...

    Oh well, no biggie to me

    Mangy Mutt

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  120. One of the hostile crowdDecember 1, 2010 at 1:30 AM

    Hey Ron,

    If you want to have a serious debate or conversation then have one, with your real name.

    And for someone who doesn't let too many opportunities to bash us pass by, I still don't get the fascination with us. Is it our perfume? Our witty repartee? Perhaps you were so envious of our poll that you just couldn't restrain yourself?

    Why do you continue to want to engage us in a debate since we are a nasty hostile crowd that participates in "histrionic diatribes" instead of choosing to "debate" with such a fine upstanding choir boy such as yourself?

    What does that say about you? Are you so bored, so lonely, or lead such an empty life that you insist upon subjecting yourself to such torture just to prove to yourself that we are still the same old nasty bunch? Hmmm? Nothing good on the telly tonight?

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  121. Another one from the hostile crowdDecember 1, 2010 at 1:31 AM

    Hey Mutt,

    You did great!

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  122. Hello Mutt,

    It seems like you and I were in some amount of agreement on things, so I suppose my comments were not directed towards yourself.

    Best,

    Hon. Ron Paul.

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  123. Andy, (aka Ron Paul)

    If you truly want to debate then do so, without an alias. Other wise your comments will be treated with the distain and ridicule that an anonymous commentator deserves.

    Maybe someone will take you seriously, maybe not. It is very difficult to have a serious conversation with someone who has a history of stirring shit when they come here with an alias.

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