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Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Dewey Beats Truman



From the wiki:

The paper's erroneous headline became notorious after a jubilant Truman was photographed holding a copy of the paper during a stop at St. Louis Union Station while returning by train from his home in Independence, Missouri to Washington, D.C.[1] Truman's joy was no doubt increased by the gaffe from the staunchly conservative Republican Chicago Tribune, which had once referred to Truman as a "nincompoop". In a retrospective article over half a century later about the newspaper's most famous and most embarrassing headline, the Tribune wrote that Truman "had as low an opinion of the Tribune as it did of him."[2]

On election night, this earlier press deadline required the first post-election issue of the Tribune to go to press before even the East coast states had reported many results from the polling places. The paper relied on its veteran Washington correspondent and political analyst Arthur Sears Henning who had accurately predicted the winner in four out of five presidential contests in the past 20 years. Conventional wisdom,[3] supported by polls, was almost unanimous that a Dewey presidency was "inevitable", and that the New York governor would win the election handily. The first (one-star) edition of the Tribune therefore went to press with the banner headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN".[1]

The story by Tribune correspondent Henning[4] also reported Republican control of the House of Representatives and Senate that would work with President-elect Dewey. Henning wrote that "Dewey and Warren won a sweeping victory in the presidential election yesterday. The early returns showed the Republican ticket leading Truman and Barkley pretty consistently in the western and southern states" and added that "indications were that the complete returns would disclose that Dewey won the presidency by an overwhelming majority of the electoral vote."[5]

As returns began to indicate a close race later in the evening, Henning continued to stick to his prediction, and thousands of papers continued to roll off the presses with the banner headline predicting a Dewey victory. Even after the paper's lead story was rewritten to emphasize local races and to indicate the narrowness of Dewey's lead in the national race, the same banner headline was left on the front page. Only late in the evening, after press dispatches cast doubt upon the certainty of Dewey's victory did the Tribune change the headline to "DEMOCRATS MAKE SWEEP OF STATE OFFICES" for the later two-star edition. However, some 150,000 copies of the paper had already been published with the erroneous headline before the gaffe was corrected.

As it turned out, Truman won the electoral vote by a 303-189 majority over Dewey and Dixiecrat candidate Strom Thurmond, though a swing of just a few thousand votes in Ohio, Illinois, and California would have produced a Dewey victory. Instead of a Republican sweep of the White House and both houses of Congress, the Democrats held the Presidency and regained control of both the House and the Senate.

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Wishful thinking that the media would be as wrong in 2010 as they were in 1948.

106 comments:

  1. @Thor,

    Re, labels -

    I believe in human ingenuity, and the will to survive. What I fear most is corruption, ignorance, and apathy.

    I don't believe in people being 100% X or Y. Reminds me of that classic Yin/Yang circle - two fish. Some of us more liberal than others due to our life experiences.

    I Can

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  2. I am so sick of politics. Nothing to see here, folks, move along now.

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  3. Denise - Hah, I love the pic! How many of us have been secretly hoping for this?

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  4. Almost lost in this election, is the fact that they're either going to have to extend, or pass, on the expiring Bush tax cuts. Is O going to compromise? He'll lose the rest of his base if he does. I wonder who would win if the government shut down again? The R's or the D's?

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  5. Gold and Silver down. Will the dollar go up now and everything sells off?

    I Can

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  6. I smell a sell off coming. Might not be tomorrow or even this week but it's coming.

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  7. The next two years are going to be a complete circus in this country. We thought the last few were crazy. We ain't seen nuthin' yet.

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  8. Manny - Yup. Total insanity. Right when it's starting to become clear that we're about to start sliding again, and everything they've tried before hasn't worked, we're bringing in a brand new congress who's sole intent, according to their own leader, is to make Obama a one term president.

    Well that's great, he's been a shitty president and he doesn't deserve to be re elected. Can we just put that bullshit aside for a little bit so we can save the country?

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  9. Like I said the other night - how long before the impeachment trials begin?

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  10. Thor...from your friend up north...Obama will not be a one term president.

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  11. Perhaps, greg, but that will also depend on who the GOP nominates. If they nominate an unelectable candidate (which is possible), he could win by default. Also, a lot can happen between now and the next election. A LOT. I'm guessing we have some strange twists and turns coming very turn, some we might not like so much.

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  12. Greg - No, I don't think he will either. I think the R's ruined their chances. I think they'll misinterpret this election as their mandate to "stop Obama". I have more faith in the intelligence of the average American though, so I still think that the sheeple will see what's up fairly quickly.

    Two years of gridlock and never ending fractious partisanship while the country slowly slides back into a Depression isn't going to be fun :-/

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  13. Whoops, I thought you said he'd be a "one term president". Reading is fundamental, Manny! Sorry! LOL. Going cross-eyed staring at my PC screen all day.

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  14. Manny...they better come up with someone better than last time.

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  15. Manny...PC screens will do that to you!

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  16. @Thor: Perhaps you're right, but my faith in the collective intelligence of the American public is being tested right now. Perhaps all those years of cultural and educational decline is finally come home to roost? ;-)

    Interestingly, we went to a Halloween party on Saturday and met a German guy who lives here with his American wife (with three small kids) that said he thought our school system basically sucked, and keep in mind relatively speaking they are actually pretty good here in Minny. The biggest issue he thought was our kids' lack of curiosity and passion to learn new things for the sake of learning. I wonder if all of the distractions (e.g. Facebook, cell phones, texting, frivolous bullshit everywhere, etc.) today have contributed to this phenomenon. I think he'd rather live in Germany but she grew up here, so here they stay.

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  17. Huh - I wonder who it'll be. Rubio? The R's aren't stupid enough to nominate Palin, although that would guarantee O wins.

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  18. LOL greg. I set you up for that one. I should be your Apple straight man.

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  19. Manny, I'm not surprised. My next door neighbors are Austrian. They run a branch office of some German import export company. They say the same thing, although, keep in mind these people are Germanic. My neighbors were complaining about certain things about Americans, mostly our litigiousness, and violence, but they also said that Americans are more like Germans than anyone else in the way we work so much. Also think of the one country in the world that Americans probably most admire, I'd argue that country would be Germany. They are the world leaders right now when you really think about it.

    So, not surprised the German guy you met said what he said, but hey, look on the bright side. At least we're not French. ;-)

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  20. Sooo, are we legalizing pot on CA tonight?

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  21. I know BR isn't going to let my smart ass remark to Ahab go through :P

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  22. LOL Thor, although France is a beautiful country.

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  23. @Thor,

    I don't think that people know anything about Germany, and you would be hard pressed to find an older person who would sing Germany's praises.

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  24. It looks like that lying douche bag Kirk has won. Oh goody.

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  25. Denise - I disagree, that generation is mostly dead, their children are in positions of power today and I don't think they care about the war. Maybe it's different in your part of the country, but I've always thought the midwest was where the vast majority of the Germans settled?

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  26. That's true Denise, although some in this country may admire Germany (and its past) for all the wrong reasons, if you know what I mean.

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  27. Sheesh you're right!!

    Some 48 percent of the US citizens who participated in the December 2009 poll by the government-sponsored German Information Centre reported having an “excellent” or “good” view of Germany.

    “I'm extremely pleased. The good results show that excellent political ties between our governments is accompanied by a rather positive view of our country by Americans,” German Ambassador to the US Klaus Scharioth said as he presented the results.

    Of the 1,051 representative Americans who participated in the poll just one month after Chancellor Angela Merkel gave her historic speech to the US Congress, feelings about Germany were most positive among young university graduates.


    Please excuse my while I go invade my next door neighbor ;-)

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  28. @Thor: As someone with a pre-existing condition who couldn't get coverage until '14 if my wife or I don't have it through a corporate plan (thanks Obama, for selling out), I admire their health care system. ;-)

    Many things in MN have a big German influence to them, including our gorgeous and expansive (and VERY clean) parks and trails system.

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  29. Most of America can't find Germany on a map, much less the rest of Europe. Geography and World Cultures went out the window in favor of building collages and dioramas, and the obsession with sports instead of academics.

    There was an article in my local paper that was advertising a workshop on how to get athletic scholarships out of colleges. As if that is why one goes to college. It is pathetic.

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  30. Denise - true, but that's also true of most western cultures, you find the youth of the west are mostly not interested in much.

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  31. Kids today are too busy navel gazing, drinking, texting, and playing video games to worry about countries other than ourselves.

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  32. Agreed Denise. I should have learned German or French in college. Is it too late? ;-)

    If anything, I could use access to the health care if something catastrophic happens to me before 2014. ;-)

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  33. And most adults cannot name their own senators, much less worry about Germany.

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  34. Manny, we have BCBS and we are scared to death if one of us get sick. 2014? Ha.

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  35. UGH - please tell me I did not just see what I think I saw

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  36. @Thor: That's true, but I do think it's a bit worse here. We set the gold standard for frivolity and vapidity. It's going to all come crashing down someday though. A rude awakening for many is ahead. A slow motion train wreck is in progress.

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  37. Wow, is John Boehner drunk or something? Bizarre speech.

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  38. Is this the same man who said his main job was to make sure Obama was a one term president?

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  39. >> The next two years are going to be a complete circus in this country. We thought the last few were crazy. We ain't seen nuthin' yet.

    Yup.

    Holy shit. How can people be so stupid to vote back in the party (now under two brands -- TeaParty-Pepsi and Republican-Coke) that most closely advances the interests of the plutarchy?? Amazing!!

    I don't expect them to vote for Democrats. But, at least vote "3rd party". Or write in your own name.

    My one big disappointment today is learning that Grayson lost...

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  40. So do we Denise. What a way to live in such a wealthy country, right? It's fucking insane if you ask me and certainly doesn't incent taking risks with one's career. One thing that fear does lately is motivate me to work my ass off at the gym and just be as healthy as possible overall. I almost do it out of spite to our health care system at this point.

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  41. Agreed, wunsacon. Feingold as well. He seemed like one of the good ones to me.

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  42. Wunsacon - no shit, you'd think with all these Independents there'd be room for a viable third party. This is just a joke. A very depressing joke.

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  43. Sigh...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pE3oiKuU8UI

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  44. Hey wunsacon,

    I could not agree more.

    Welcome to the new blog. Thanks for commenting.

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  45. What depresses me most, is that we don't have ANY leaders right now. I don't think anyone in real power in this country gives a shit about anything other than their own agenda. I wonder if this is how people felt during the Hoover Administration (without taking a position on his presidency).

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  46. Wunsacon - Look at how EMPTY those seats are!

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  47. Here's the thing about Grayson - at least he went down swinging. A principled man. I'm tired of voting for spineless wimps who constantly go down without even swinging. What a waste.

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  48. All that tanning does kill the few brain cells that Boehner once had. Speaker Boehner? Has about as nice of a ring as President Alfred E. Neuman.

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  49. @Thor: Oh, I'm sure it's much worse now. The narcissistic me-first-last-always cultural rot is eating away at this country's soul.

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  50. We voted down the Texas Oil companies attempt to stop The Governors environmental legislation from moving forward. Handily voted down. I guess we like our over regulated business environment.

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  51. As I said earlier this week, Obama will reach across the aisle and proclaim in the spirit of bi-partisanship and promote the changing of the filibuster bill. Just in time!

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  52. On track to lose 60 seats?!?! Wow. Gotta hand it to the Dems though. They sure know how to screw up a golden opportunity at every turn. It's truly incredible. I'm beginning to think it's intentional. How can any group be THIS clueless?

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  53. Hopefully Pelosi will resign now. How the Democratic leadership thought they could ever get away with a Speaker of The House from San Francisco is a testament to their cluelessness. The fact that she was from San Francisco guaranteed that a third of the nation would hate her without question.

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  54. And you combine the clueless Dems with an ignorant, apathetic, desperately flailing populace with a very short memory and attention span, and this is what we get.

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  55. I am glad all of those elderly, and unemployed people can now count on their tax cuts to pay for the bills now that their unemployment, Social Security, and Medicare benefits are in jeopardy.

    Duh. We really do get the government we deserve.

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  56. @Denise: Wait until the GOP gets its wish and cuts funding for their coveted Medicare and SS. It would almost be poetic justice for those seniors who were duped into voting these clowns in out of fear the Dems were going to "raise their taxes" to turn around and see those coveted programs cut by THEIR candidates.

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  57. Pelosi, Reid and Obama. Need I say more?

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  58. Make no mistake, now that the elites got their bailout, it's austerity time for the Sheeple, and that includes the clueless who voted for the very people who are now going to austeritize them. Stupidity on an astonishing level.

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  59. But, but, but, you weren't supposed to be taking away MY benefits, just those liberals!

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  60. Get your government hands off of my Medicare!

    (rallying cry from a senior citizen at a Tea Party rally)

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  61. Hah - Team Pink my ass, we're TEAM RED!

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  62. Hey, I thought we were a triumvirate of pseudo communists! False communists unite!

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  63. Do they print this stuff just to try and rehabilitate Bush?

    Bush thought about taking Cheney off 2004 ticket

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  64. Not much movement in the futures in reaction to the big wins for Republicans, so far.

    Sell the news so that QE can instantly save the market?

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  65. >> @wunsy: Retards or retreads? LOL. Sorry…..

    Mannwich, LOL!

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  66. The market will be up HUGE tomorrow morning. Watch.

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  67. Bush said he wanted to put an end to assertions by critics that Cheney was the real decision-maker and to "demonstrate that I was in charge."

    ROFL. Oh yea, he was in charge.

    He writes that he spent weeks exploring the possibility of replacing Cheney with Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist, (R-Kitten Killer) who was Senate majority leader. But he says he valued the qualities Cheney brought to their partnership and finally decided to stick with his vice president, who agreed to run again.

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  68. Wunsacon - I so wish it were socially acceptable to say that word in polite company. I have a funny picture that I've never had the balls to post for fear of offending too many people.

    I hate this whole PC bullshit

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  69. Maybe Thor, but I smell a major sell off coming soon once the dust settles and the market has time to digest the real implications.

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  70. I remember when Bush said that "He was a leader who knew how to lead". I can't believe I am getting nostalgic for Bush.

    I bet his book gets totally lost in the shuffle of these elections. Maybe that is what he wanted.

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  71. And besides, this is probably already priced in.

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  72. I miss the 90's. Say what you will about the Clinton Presidency, the 90's were pretty damned nice.

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  73. @manny,

    I totally agree with that. And I agree with Thor about the 90's, except it was politically very unpleasant.

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  74. And you watch - the idiotic Dems will assume they lost for ALL THE WRONG REASONS, and will learn the wrong lessons, yet again. It's simply astonishing. What a freaking wimpy, spineless party.

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  75. The new echo chamber word for tomorrow, Republican Mandate.

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  76. Well, we can't control politics at all. Just try our personal lives and portfolios...

    I'm going to bed, folks. Have a good nite.

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  77. Manny - Yup, they'll think they've strayed too far to the left and will swing back to the "middle" which is the old "far right". The Conservatives in this country have been that successful in ripping the country to the hard right.

    And America just keeps electing these idiots back into office. Over and over and over.

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  78. Hey, look, the poster boy for spineless, unprincipled, weasely Dems won, none other than, Harry Reid himself!! Yay team, yayyyyy.......

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  79. wunsacon,

    thanks for stopping by!

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  80. Wunsacon - Amen to that. I'm glad that we got this one night to go all politics. It was nice to vent, but the sheeple have spoken. So it's time to go back to figuring out how to dodge the avalanche that's on it's way.

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  81. So Harry Reid barely beats a clinically insane person and that's somehow a "victory". Strange times we live in.

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  82. Agreed all. To bed, I go as well. Goon night!

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  83. Wow - Reid won re election. I guess that's good? Angle was a lunatic.

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  84. When a guy like Feingold goes down you know that the country, at least Wisconsin of all places, has gone mad.

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  85. Yes, Thor. Like I said, somehow beating a crazy person is a "big victory" for the Dems. Unreal.

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  86. Good night everyone, S&P 1200 tomorrow?

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  87. California too - we re elected Governor Moonbeam!

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  88. Night all! Tomorrow a nice rally!

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  89. @Thor,

    I thought it was very nice of both Fiorina and Whitman to add hundreds of millions to CA's economy. Who needs to tax billionaires when we can CONvince them to run for public office

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  90. Denise - HAH! I Never look at it that way. Good point!

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  91. I must say, I think the graphics are getting a little out of hand in the MSM. Maybe I'm old fashioned for 38, but I don't like my news people to be swimming in graphics and text and spinning shit.

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  92. I think maybe just an open thread or a random chart?

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  93. Do you think I will have to make another post for tomorrow? 98 comments so far. I was planning on this one being good for tonight and tomorrow.

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  94. Probably a chart sometime in the morning.

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  95. Thor (12:26) - I am not the most PC person in the world I will say that world as soon as I stop licking my computer screen.

    Mutt

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  96. @Dss, Thor, and Mannwich:

    Ever was politics thus:

    "I used to rule the world
    Seas would rise when I gave the word
    Now in the morning I sweep alone
    Sweep the streets I used to own

    "One minute I held the key
    Next the walls were closed on me
    And I discovered that my castles stand
    Upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand

    "Revolutionaries wait
    For my head on a silver plate
    Just a puppet on a lonely string
    Oh who would ever want to be king?

    "For some reason I can't explain
    Once you go there was never, never an honest word
    That was when I ruled the world"

    Ever, was it thus.

    Courtesy, Coldplay, "Viva la Vida".

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  97. And, another song comes to mind: Eagles "Get Over It".

    So Let's trade.

    @Mannwich:
    I went through the list of insider sells, looking for some technical or fundamental sign that might have resulted or caused the insider sell, but I can find nothing. Just wondering, did you see any pattern? Or other key?

    Also, I believe there is a time period within which an insider's sale has to be reported. If my memory serves me well, it's within a quarter, but my memory's not so good. Did your research show the timing of the report versus when the sale is made?

    Thanks!

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  98. @Rock,

    The futility of the elections got to us. Don't worry, we are not turning into a political site.

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