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Monday, April 25, 2011

Manny Mondays - To QE or Not to QE? That is the Question

Morning all! Despite spending the weekend totally tuned from the news, this article - Stimulus by Fed Is Disappointing, Economists Say - caught my attention. It basically concludes the following: (1) surprise, surprise, the Fed's efforts at "easing" hasn't really helped the real economy as much as had been previously forecasted by many economists, and (2) although the Fed's tools have been deemed effective at stopping the fall, they are very limited in terms of driving the real economy. Shock of shocks indeed. Certainly nobody (or a bunch of "nobodies") saw that coming, right?

Here are a few key excerpts:

As the Fed’s policy-making board prepares to meet Tuesday and Wednesday — after which the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, will hold a news conference for the first time to explain its decisions to the public — a broad range of economists say that the disappointing results show the limits of the central bank’s ability to lift the nation from its economic malaise.

“It’s good for stopping the fall, but for actually turning things around and driving the recovery, I just don’t think monetary policy has that power,” said Mark Thoma, a professor of economics at the University of Oregon, referring specifically to the bond-buying program.

Mr. Bernanke and his supporters say that the purchases have improved economic conditions, all but erasing fears of deflation, a pattern of falling prices that can delay purchases and stall growth. Inflation, which is beneficial in moderation, has climbed closer to healthy levels since the Fed started buying bonds.


The article then goes on to discuss some of the options the Fed has at this point in terms of continuing with QE or ending it. Many contributors on the blogosphere have theorized that Ben is basically in a box now with no good options in that if he continues with more QE he risks stoking inflation, as well as the continued debasement of the dollar, which could serve as a drag on the real economy, but if he ends QE, he puts the stock market and other asset prices at significant risk of falling. So what does he decide to do at this point? Some contributors on the blogosphere have mentioned the prospects of some sort of "stealth easing" that serves to do something similar to QE, but one that's not overtly labeled as such. Might this be an option at this point? What does everyone think Ben's next move will be and the resulting effects on the market, commodities, inflation (deflation?) and real economy?

47 comments:

  1. Nice post, Manny!

    I can only say "what would the economy look like if there were no QE?"

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  2. We in Chicago have another first!

    Gasoline Prices in Chicago are the Highest in the Nation

    CHICAGO (CBS) — The price for a gallon of gasoline in Chicago is now the highest in the nation.

    According to the Lundberg survey, the average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in Chicago now stands at $4.27–a 12 cent increase in the past two weeks. And that’s just the average. Several stations in Chicago were selling gasoline for between $4.60 and $4.70 a gallon, according to chicagogasprices.com.

    I just paid $4.17 at Costco, in Michigan this weekend the cheapest was $3.99.

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  3. This whole thread (and video where Yves asks old Larry a key question which goes largely unanswered, of course) is well worth a look:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/your-humble-blogger-asked-larry-summers-a-question-he-did-not-like.html

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  4. Gas is now $3.95/gallon here. Will be above $4 this week alone at this rate, maybe $5 by summer. Amazing to watch unfold. They may keep this thing from falling apart for the remainder of the year, but with all of the swans circling, what rabbits can they keep pulling out of their hats to keep it aloft in '12?

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  5. I saw as high as $3.99 in a few places here.

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  6. Yves at NC weighs in on today's MM topic:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/mirabile-dictu-economists-agree-all-the-fed-has-done-is-goose-financial-markets.html

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  7. From Yves below. Like someone (ahem, Manny) as been saying, it's all about BELIEF or PERCEPTION by market players that Benny won't allow markets (or all risk assets) to fall that's creating this latest bubble, and created the most recent asset bubbles blown by his predecessor, Greenie. He's basically Greenie on steroids and HGH at this point. The Bernank Put = the Put to end all Puts (we hope).

    "You could argue that the big impact of the QEs was psychological, that it was tangible proof that the Bernanke put was the Greenspan put on steroids. And you have thegeneral concern, that the more the Fed meddles in rates, the more it creates economic distortions, which are very likely to be speculation rather than real economy investment."

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  8. Mannwich - TPTB have dictated that there is no other choice.

    They threw their lot in with QE1 and I believe that they thought that would make things good, but it didn't.

    So they went with QE2 and they hoped it would make things good, but it didn't.

    Now they have no choice, but to go with QE3+ I do not think even TPTB think QE3+ stands a snowballs chance in hell, but what else are they going to do?

    Admit QE1 was the wrong way to go.

    Admit they do not know what is goiing on?

    The choice are limited - QE3+ WILL take place and that is when TPTB will spend their time packing their bags to get out of town.

    Just my $20 that is now worth .02 cents and soon to be worth 0.0000017 cents.

    Mangy Mutt

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  9. @Mannwich:

    I reviewed the interview and Yves' question. I think she blew her opportunity.

    Her question culminated with the words "What is the case for not treating financial sectors actors as utilities?"

    I think Larry answered that specific question, and did a good job. Where Ms. Smith blew it is that her question was too broad, and could be interpreted many ways, including the one that Larry answered.

    If she had asked the specific question of why the financial sector management should be compensated so highly, then rewarded for taking risks which put the entire actor's play in jeopardy, well, that would have been a little more pointed a question, (since she likes to use the word "actors" I guess) and perhaps elicited a different kind of response from Larry.

    But I think Larry's response that we don't want to make the financial sector's decision process like a utility's decision process, was a valid answer to the very broad question.

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  10. @Mannwich:

    There's this guy on Bloomberg, I can't remember his name, but he covers the White House and the president's press conferences. I saw him ask a question live, on TV. The question was rehearsed, well-thought out, not stuttered, with repeated words, and not misinterpretable.

    When you go into a meeting, to prepare for the meeting, if you are a presenter, you ask yourself "what are the questions I would ask me, and how would I answer them?" Additionally, you have your PR people give you a briefing on the company's specific positions on the topics that are likely to arise. I have been prepped for many a meeting.

    If you go to the meeting to listen and ask questions, you need to prepare your questions before hand because you absolutely know what the meeting will be about, and you can be sure that if you wish to establish a position which is difficlut for the person holding the meeting, that you ask a specific, pointed, uninterpretable question.

    Ms. Smith was unprepared to ask the question she wanted to ask. She stuttered, repeated herself, and did not direct the answer's scope. The answer came back to her in a manner the answerer wanted, not in a manner she wanted.

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  11. Great points. Rock. I don't disagree. Too bad because that was quite an opportunity to get summers to truly answer the question.

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  12. Almost half the housing market now distressed properties. Until this significantly changes, I can't see how housing prices stop going down.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/march-survey-almost-half-of-housing.html

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  13. Europe closed - Easter holiday.



    ICan

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  14. @ICan: indeed:).

    Hello all. Not around these days.

    You know how it goes: real life 0.0 getting in the way of the 2.0 one at times:p

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  15. My 2 cents about the SP500:

    * I'm still very fuzzy about that beast short-term. My (very cautious) analysis is this:

    * 10 minutes chart is showing weakness: RSI is failing against a downtrend line, plus bearish divergence on both RSI and MACD (see my chart here if interested)

    * If the index starts showing significant weakness today, I think we're in for a string of down days.

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  16. * In that case, chances are that we fall as far as 1294. I see 2 scenarios from there:

    1) we rally. That would indicate there's no trend, trading range between 1294/1345.
    2) Or we break the 1294 to the downside. I'll update my outlook for this scenario, if it happens.

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  17. Ok, was just a brief checking. Gotta go back to saving the world from those nasty bugs. :D

    Trade safe.

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  18. @Manny, it's on.

    http://www.cultofmac.com/steve-jobs-iphone-locationgate-is-false-but-android-tracks-you/91995

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  19. fractional reserve systemApril 25, 2011 at 11:49 AM

    Andy (11:07) - Good point.

    With wages staying stagnant over the past 10-15 years, but home prices increasing it seems many people used their homes to increase their standard of living.

    Now that home prices are falling and many jobs are disappearing there are a whole lot of people out there who can not get a loan even if they wanted to.

    Yet TPTB keep pushing on that string trying to get people to borrow and in some ways they have, through student loans, but that money is not producing anything and has to be paid back.

    Yup, it has been an interesting experiment, just too bad so many people have been and will continue to be hurt by it.

    Mangy Mutt

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  20. @AT: "Fun" for some people, for sure. For most people? Not so much.

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  21. Wow, the rocket ship also known as "SLV" just keeping going higher day after day after day. Once again, heckuva job on that bubble, Benny.

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  22. Manny - re: your post. Honestly, I have no idea at all what Benny is going to do next if the economy doesn't improve. . . .I'd say look at Japan's history. They seem to have made all the wrong choices over the last 20 years, I'm sure we'll continue to follow in their footsteps ;-)

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  23. Lowest gas on my way in to work . . . .4.35. Average price in the whole city is about 4.20 I think so that top spot is still yours Denise!

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  24. Thor,

    We have a much higher price level in the city as opposed to the suburbs. Plus Illinois mandates some sort of anti-pollution additive in our gas that makes it cost more.

    I am glad to be working from home!

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  25. Logged another 19 miles this morning in the saddle. Getting easier for this old geezer! After two solid days in a row (yesterday and today), weather turning bad again. Might get a snow mix on Wednesday and further out looking like it will be in the 40's on May 1st. Yikes.

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  26. Way to go, Manny! The weather makes it so hard to get into great shape.

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  27. It really does, so I really have to get out while the weather is good. It just seems like we can't string a good solid few days to a week together until at least June.

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  28. When I train for a trip I use the 4 day schedule; one hard day, two normal days and one easy day, increasing the time/miles spent each week in each phase.

    By the end of six weeks you should have enough time to have a pretty impressive long day. Even in our bad weather there are usually 4 days out of 7 that are good enough to go out. The key was the one hard day in which you went further/longer than the previous week.

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  29. Budget here in CA is going to be brutal this year. Looks like it's going to be all cuts, while at the same time, a number of tax increased from last decade will be expiring and not renewed. Will be another test to see if reduced taxes and less government is going to help the economy here.

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  30. China's Ghost Cities and Malls. This is truly amazing to watch. How long can they remain empty without greater consequences to their economy and country? Can they extend and pretend forever?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E&feature=aso

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  31. Good luck to theirs and the global economy when that puppy finally blows. Good grief.

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  32. Dang it! Manny that was one of my two stories for Thursday ;-)

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  33. Emmy,

    That Samurai Trader article is priceless! Thanks.

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  34. @Jeff,

    Related article to your post in the Globe and Mail over the weekend,"As the easy money ends, an uncharted road lies ahead". www.theglobandmail.com/report-on-business

    Main points were:

    Bill Gross dumped treasuries, thinks int.rates will go up once the Fed stops buying.

    But, if the Fed stop printing, commodities(inflation expectation) come down, interest rates come down, bond prices go up.

    Still others believe U.S. economy is in a self-sustaining recovery. No need for further stimulus. Stock market should be ok.

    Others are worried who will buy treasuries after the Fed? Int rates have to go up.

    Fairfax's Prem Watsa(Canadian bear) : deflation ahead.

    So diverse views. Depends on who you believe. Certainly time for caution.

    ICan

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  35. From ZH:

    "Jeremy Grantham Goes Malthus".His letter:
    "Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over".

    Contrary indicator?

    ICan

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  36. WOW, the volume on ZSL. Not buying it yet.


    ICan

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  37. @Thor: Sorry about that! You can still write about it though. Still will be relevant on Thursday, maybe even more so!

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  38. Manny - just giving you a hard time ;-) The second of the two stories was the main feature so we're still good!

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  39. ICan,

    Great points. Is the economy so strong that interest rates will rise without the Fed? Not that I can see from here. And can the Fed make a case for raising rates because of inflation, because the inflation is in higher education, health care, energy and food, but continuing deflation in everything related to housing? Things are costing more but it is not the same type of inflation scenario that was in the 70's, where the cost of everything went up, with the exception of bonds and stocks.

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  40. @Rock,

    Take look at TRP. I own it in my investment portfolio. Pays a nice dividend plus stock appreciated since I owned it. Utility.

    Above the channel breakout. There was some fav. news on XL Keystone Pipeline to the U.S. last week. 52 week high though.


    ICan

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  41. The Fed' chairman's first news conference on Wed.

    "Expect more volatility than usual". Trader Mark

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  42. Study: 26 percent of renters spend over half their income on housing

    Wow. That is amazing. Add in increasing gas and food costs and this is a disaster in the making

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/study-26-percent-of-renters-spend-over.html

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  43. But, hey, the good news is that the credit spigots are likely still flowing, so charge it up and hope for the best!

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  44. Thor,

    Brutally boring day in the markets. Except that Gold did put in an ugly looking candle.

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  45. Manny - I'm not surprised, imagine what that percentage is like in a place like NYC, SF, or LA. Boston is also very expensive isn't it?

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