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Monday, April 4, 2011

Manny Monday's - Is the "Toil Index" a Better Measure of Economic Health than GDP?

Morning all! I'm back to reality here in the North Pole, and we're inching towards spring (and I mean INCHING but it was upper 50's today!). One article that caught my eye over the weekend appeared in the NY Times, written by Robert Frank.

In the article, Frank asserts that per capita GDP is not the best way to measure the true economic health of the country from the standpoint of the middle class. He proposes what he believes is a better measure of economic health or real "pain of the middle class" by using something he calls the "Toil Index":

It measures the number of hours that median earners must toil each month to be able to rent a house in a school district of at least average quality. (Could the median earner aspire to any less?) Unlike per capita G.D.P., which, apart from brief recessions, grew at a strong and steady rate from the end of World War II until the recent downturn, the toil index has been much more volatile. Its movements suggest that recent increases in income inequality have imposed substantial economic costs on middle-income families.

Frank notes that from 1950 - 1970, incomes for families at all levels grew quite rapidly together, at about 3%, but around 1970, that began to dramatically change, with lion's share of the country's productivity gains going to the top 1%. He argues that rising inequality over the past 40+ years have "shifted the frame of reference" for those who merely try to keep up largely by working longer hours, hence the term "toil index":

The index rejects the standard economic assumption that well-being depends primarily on absolute consumption. Instead, it assumes that the context of that consumption is often far more important. Context matters because the brain requires a frame of reference to make any evaluative judgment.

For example, is a particular family’s house adequate? The answer invariably depends on the quality and size of other houses in the surrounding area.

Rising inequality has shifted the context that governs housing choices. Higher incomes at the top have led the wealthy to build bigger mansions, shifting the frame of reference that shapes demands for those with slightly smaller incomes, who travel in overlapping social circles. The near-rich respond by building bigger houses as well, shifting the frame of reference for others just below them, and so on, all the way down the income ladder.


Go read the whole article here - Gauging the Pain of the Middle Class. It is truly a must-read.

58 comments:

  1. Mannwich - over here we have had one day this year that the temperature has pushed pasted 60, so if you are looking at 50 as your break out temperature, , we got you beat - But not by much.

    Mutt

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  2. I have always thought in a country as vast and diverse as the United States, that using national averages is not a good idea.

    No Child Left Behind - How can the National Government, dictate that children in Texas, should be learning the exact same thing as children in Virgina, it is a policy that was set to fail even before it began.

    Social Security - Medicare and a never ending list of other national government programs are all based on National Average, yet they fail miserably.

    So how can the GDP be a meaningful measurement of National Economic Health?

    A person in New York is going to make more then a person in the Ozarks - But their standard of living costs will be different too.

    But no matter what system is used, do you trust the numbers?

    Is our unemployed rate really falling, or are people being pushed out of the system, only to be left worse off then before, but no one cares because they no longer count as unemployed.

    As the dollar weakens and comodities spike can we really be having an economic upturn and if so how long can it last?

    Can the Toil Index give us a better number then GDP, Prbably, but how long will it be before those numbers are manipulated?

    Mutt

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  3. Morning Mutt (and all)! Mo-Mo Monday looking a tad tepid.

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  4. Mannwich - Morning :)

    In my honest opinion, I think the market will continue higher (Maybe not today or tomorrow) only because it is being pumped with cheap dollars.

    But some day those cheap dollars will fail to make a difference and people will start to pull them out of the market, then the wheels to Ben's economic "plan" will start to truly come off.

    But until that time - As Thor likes to say "Rally on Garth"

    Mutt

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  5. @Jeff,

    Thanks for the post, will read it and comment. A similar issue addressed by Mauldin in his weekly letter - "The plight of the working class".

    Similar issues haunt middle clss in Canada too. Stagnant wages, rising costs of living.

    ICan

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  6. Cobra - April is bullish month for stocks.

    BB speaks today.


    ICan

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  7. It was 89 in Kansas City yesterday, followed by an awesome storm and hail. Talk about not being ready for that kind of heat! Incongruous with spring flowering trees and daffodils.

    We are visiting our son here on the way back home. Tomorrow a travel day, home on Wednesday.

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  8. Morning folks! Getting off to a slow start this morning. Manny, I start working from home two days a week starting this week, any advice? ;-)

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  9. @ICan:

    Before Ben went into the Confessional, he asked the Priest: "Father, how are things?"

    "Looking up," said the Priest.

    Yet another Eisenhower era joke. Sorry. But, timely.

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  10. @Mutt:

    Actually, the government numbers can be cooked, like the banksters cooked their books.

    I did some investigation into the CPI, and ho it is calculated. A significant piece is housing, although the percentage isn't published (that I could find). But the interesting thing is that not all housing qualifies to be considered in the cost of housing. Then, each area's CPI is cooked, and by some other secret formula, the CPIs are cooked together to create the overall CPI.

    Bottom line, the government can make this batch of CPI taste however they want.

    I haven't investigated how GDP is calculated, but I'll bet it's very similar in concept, and the government can get any number they want.

    You can be sure the CPI will be low enough and the GDP will be high enough to prevent revolutions.

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  11. @Thor: Are you working from home full-time? Took a while for me to get used to it, but I now actually like it, as long as I force myself to get out at least once a day. The key is to stay focused and be able to carve out periods of your day just for your office and non-office time. I like the flexibility of it, to be honest, and often work in the evenings and at odd hours, in exchange for stepping away at times during the day.

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  12. Fed's Dubdley spoke on Friday.

    "Inflation weighs on Canada's businesses". Financialpost.com - Canadian bussinesses intend to pass on higher costs to consumers.

    "Trichet seen burying ailing nations with interest rate rise". bloomberg.com

    Inflation everywhere except the U.S.?

    ICan

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  13. Barak Obama JammiesApril 4, 2011 at 11:57 AM

    Thor - If I was able to work from home two days a week, I would make myself as comfortable as possible.

    The first thing I would do is get some Barak Obama jammies, so I could feel like I was working for some change.

    The next thing would be to get Ben Bernankie slippers, cuz it would feel so good to shove my foot up is ass every day.

    But hey that's just me...

    Mutt

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  14. Rock - Thanks for the insight, I have never actually worked the numbers, but don't figure it would be to difficult to move them in one direction or the other.

    The only thing is - EVENTUALLY - things need to add up properly don't they?

    Mutt

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  15. Manny - My employer is allowing me to work from home two days a week, I wanted to be able to move to Palm Spring part time, so that allows me to spend four days there, and three days here in LA. I like the idea of being able to work when I feel like working on those two days, I spend so much time outside normal office hours doing office work anyhow.

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  16. By the way, I only left the retirement la-la land compound once while in FL, but our little drive down to the Winter Park area to hit Bok Tower was somewhat revealing, as we noticed a at least a couple of completely deserted condo projects that looked nearly finished. One was quite a large complex and a virtual waste-land in a terrible spot that was completely fenced in and deserted, and many of the strip malls along the way seemed somewhat empty as well. I would have been interested to drive around some of the neighborhoods to get a deeper look but alas we didn't leave the compound again, which is NOT in any way a barometer for FL in any way. It's entirely an entity unto its own. Doesn't emmy live in FL? If so, what are you seeing down there? I know that a recent reported listed as many as 1 in 5 homes that were empty. Does that sound right to you?

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  17. @Thor: Good for you. Those commute times would kill me and can't be fun. Since you're staying with your employer, I would also just make it a point to show your face around the office just enough so that you're not "out of sight, out of mind", especially when it comes to performance review time, fi you know what I mean. But some of that could depend on your relationship with your boss. If that's good, then maybe that doesn't matter as much.

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  18. Manny - excellent post btw, have been busy this morning but definitely going to check out that article. Agree with the premise I can get from the excerpt; that all the usual government "statistics" are little more than different ways to hide what's really going on with (insert metric here).

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  19. Manny - yup, my other half has a 20 hour a week gig with Kaiser where he works mostly from home and also gave me some pointers, not taking the same two days off every week if I can so it looks like I'm around more, etc. I'm a high output employee and I work with a lot of different groups, so the nice thing is that they'd notice right away if I started slacking off.

    Have heard about what you saw in Florida, I thought for sure we'd see a lot of similar things out in Eastern Riverside county but for the most part it's not too bad, there are a lot of vacant homes, but it seems like for the most part, the "bubble" mentality here was to expand existing cities mostly by building homes, I don't remember seeing nearly as many new shopping malls and stores going in over the last decade.

    I've heard this was more the case in the central valley, but I don't have much reason to go to places like Fresno or Bakersfield so not sure. . .

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  20. @Rock,

    What's up with Ems? FXI and EPI? Even with oil above $100? Reminds me of 2007/2008. No fear of interest rates rising after June 30, QE2 end.


    ICan

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  21. So WTI(U.S. oil) is holding back on fears of rate hikes in the U.S.?

    "Oil prices top 21/2 year high". www.theglobeandmil.com

    "Brent is up on Libya, Yemen and the Nigerean elections, said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest research in Chicago".

    "U.S. crude is hesitant because there is still worry the Federal Reserve might be near a rate hike or tighter policy....".

    ICan

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  22. @ICAn:

    @ICan

    FXI is mostly banks.

    Remember nobody checks Chinese numbers. They are just numbers. There is so much off-the-books activity in China, even the government doesn't know wassup.

    Trading FXI is akin to gambling at the Sands. The only thing you can be sure of is that the house will win most of the time.

    Here's an interesting article, which points out how and why China is doing this:

    http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/creative_accounting.php

    You can bet the US Government won't do that now. Remember Abraham Lincoln was assassinated. He once made a quote something like "I'm not sure which I fear more: The Southern Army before me, or the Bankers behind me". Something like that.

    Remember the US Government is caught between a Rock (yes, I pay double taxes) and a hard place (the bankers). If you were the USG, whom would you fear more? Remember, the Bankers can't be sent to jail. But the taxpayers sure can.

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  23. Rock - I got a chance to scan the above article, it is pretty good, maybe I will get a chance to get a more indepth read.

    Mutt

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  24. @MAnnwich:

    That article was a good read. Thanks.

    I'm certainly glad 50% of my family is in the service industry. So at least their incomes can go up a little while servicing the rich.

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  25. I wonder if Bank of Canada surveys on the economy are cooked by the respondents? Sure, business don't like higher interest rates. I saw two headlines today like,

    "Businesses don't like high loonie and high gas prices". and "Businesses don't see increased sales". They'll do everything to keep the cost of capital down.

    ICan

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  26. Here are the links:

    "Bank of Canada survey shows fewer business managers predict sales growth". Bloomberg.

    "Survey finds Canadian firms fear oil prices, strong loonie". Toronto Star


    ICan

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  27. We're going to get oil over 110 this week I just know it.

    We also steamed passed the February high on Friday. Full steam ahead everyone, got your DOW 15K hats ordered?

    Yuck

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  28. After that BOC survey, loonie dived against major currencies, except,

    "Canada Bonds Rise, Shrugging Off BOC's Business Outlook Survey" - WSJ.

    God bless bond vigilantes! - A prayer for people on fixed income and seniors.

    ICan

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  29. @Rock,

    Don't you think U.S. banks like C and BAC would be in trouble if interest rates rise?

    Canadian banks are already raising mortgage rates in anticipation of rate hike.

    ICan

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  30. This is encouraging


    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A top U.S. securities commissioner on Monday said he was concerned about a recent wave in which private companies merge with shell companies as means of going public.

    “This is a disturbing trend in capital formation and investor protection,” said Securities and Exchange Commissioner Luis Aguilar at an event hosted by the Council of Institutional Investors.

    Aguilar, one of the SEC’s three Democratic commissioners, raised concerns about the trend of so-called “back-door” listings where a private company seeking to go public has its assets injected into a dormant shell public company and new capital is raised. He noted that since 2007, there have been hundreds of such registrations in the U.S., including more than 150 by companies from China and in the China region. The Nasdaq has recently suspended trading in some of these companies.


    Why was it we needed regulators for again? This sort of stuff always makes me think about all the funny business going on that we don't know about.

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  31. "TD raising mortgage rates to reflect borrowing costs". CTV.ca

    Less than 1/2% on a five year fix mortgage.

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  32. Anyone got their eye on Southwest? Might be an interesting buy the dip opportunity.

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  33. Re service industries - call centres are in trouble in Canada. One in Eastern Ontario being shut down.


    ICan

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  34. ICan - I wonder what's causing that? Are you guys shipping everything off to India as well? I'd assume that you had already done that along with us.

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  35. @Thor(2:36)

    Not following on that - just read a headline.

    You're right manfacturing jobs were shipped out long time ago. Unskilled immigrants are having hard time finding good jobs. Lot of Indian immigrants are making good money in transportation sector - trucking, taxi, public transportations like buses and construction(trades).

    ICan

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  36. Misplaced anger:

    Killing of innocent U.N. employees over the Koran burning incident. Lack of critical thinking is causing so much devastation in the world. Sheeple need education. And both sides here, the pastor and the rioters in Afghanistan are religious? WTF?


    ICan

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  37. @I Can: Stupid people doing stupid things with the "aid" of technology.

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  38. And saying stupid things, that then lead to stupid behaviors.

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  39. Ican - totally agree, the saddest part of this for me, is that so many people don't see what's going on in the US, and how similar it is to what's happening in other parts of the world. Deny all science, religion is unquestionable, do not think critically, listen to your "leaders". Very sad.

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  40. Look at the Euro go too. Is that a 12 month high I'm seeing? So much for the dollar going on a major bull run.

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  41. Euro, because of the anticipated interest rate hike coming this Thorsday.


    ICan

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  42. @ICan:

    I think banks are in trouble big time. It is earnings season coming up. I think we've seen the market expectation of bank's earnings:

    XLF is down about 5%,
    $BKX is sown about 7%
    KRE is flat
    KBE is down about 6%

    Since Feb/M, the end of last earnings season.

    How can banks make money with their prop trading stopped, and the SEC starting to sniff around on all those derivatives and their possible fraudulent marketing (which is why some of those fabulously inflamed social media companies aren't offered in the US)? They have to lend. At a higher interest rate, because lending at 0% is a waste of time.

    Unless the SEC is told to look away again, higher interest rates is the only way a bank can earn money anymore. John Houseman's way. (I love that commercial)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFpPovznSG8

    Remember with the devaluation of the dollar, asset prices (are supposed to) rise. (houses aren't). Where are bank's assets? Not marked to market, for sure.

    No, I think banks are in trouble if interest rates don't rise.

    (PS: to buy a house here, the interest rate is 1.1%)

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  43. @Thor
    RE Your 2:31

    I commented on this several months ago.

    What Chinese companies are doing is cooking books, buying the shell company, and inviting some quasi-reputable accountant over to look at the company, review the cooked books, and of course have the Asian Arts played upon him. I assume you know to which Asian Arts I'm referring. Maybe he's married and pictures are taken, maybe he gets a Swiss bank account number, who knows? So he returns to the US and gives a thumbs-up valuation and makes the company a "buy".

    Which is why you can't ever trade "Chinese shell companies".

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  44. wow! what a.. boring market that is.

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  45. Hope everyone had a great weekend. will the markets follow Manny's steps in his return to reality? we shall have the answer soon, i think.

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  46. TI just bought NS.

    What a GREAT MOVE for TI!!!

    NS has a super analog design team, and TI's strength is in digital.

    If I were Qualcomm and Broadcomm, I'd be real worried right now.

    (When I got out of school, my first California job offer was with NS. I was so stupid, I didn't take it.)

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  47. Thanks Manny. great macroeconomic topic! I don't hear much mention of the Gdp per capita on MSM here in France. i would be surprised if it is heavily used as a gauge of the average income in the USA.

    I assume we're talking about the same tool (GDP/number of people in the country), and not some more accurate formula that would account for income inequalities in the population. if the author is indeed talking about this very basic statistical tool, then i agree with his criticism.

    id go further by saying that so called experts who would claim improvement in people's standards based on that irrelevant data are not being honest.

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  48. Rock, as yes, I do remember your words on Asian Arts and how business works in that part of the world.

    I've often wondered if China is going to be able to cook their books for years longer than many people think. . . larger country and all.

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  49. Budget negotiations broken down - might we be headed for a government shutdown on Friday?

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  50. @Rock,

    I was thinking of implication of higher interest rates on mortgages/defaults?

    ICan

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  51. @Thor, not to worry. We've been operating without a government for about 30 years now.

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  52. @Thor, working at home you can work in your jammies. Just don't use facetime with anyone at work.

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  53. Western educated children of repressive leaders in Asia/Africa. The want to deny the freedoms they themselves enjoyed in the west:

    Saif Gaddafi - Ph.D from London School of Economics.

    Gamal Mubarak - Worked for B.of A.

    Xi Jinping's daughter Freshman at Harvard(2010). Xi Jinping is VP of China and apparent succesor to President Hu Jintao.

    Syria's Assad educated in London and wife born and educated there. The wife, Asma al-assad once worked for JP Morgan.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/01/syria-british=born-first-lady

    Marie Antoinette?

    ICan

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  54. Class warfare I suppose. The elite not wanting to give up ruling power. Everyone else can eat the cake. The revolution is coming in India too sooner or later.


    ICan

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  55. This is classic:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/transocean-admits-vocabulary-malfunction-says-2010-safety-wording-may-have-been-insensitive

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  56. ICan - agreed - one day people will wake up and see what's been going on. The Koch brothers for instance, we're finally seeing how people like them have been going about turning the country into their own private game reserve. Follow the money.

    Marie Antoinette indeed, just wait.

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