Interesting things about the 60 minute SP-500 chart.
1. 50% Fib retracement at the 1295.00 level
2. Three pushes down marked the end of the retracement
3. Bull flag from Wednesday resolved itself to the upside
4. Internal statistics are not confirming the upside of Thursday
As we approach the recent highs and the February highs what are the chances that we break out to fresh highs for 2011?
Many of my indicators are mixed (neither positive or negative) but a few are sounding the caution bell.
1. Tick highs have been declining into this rally. Just before the February and April declines tick highs contracted significantly. Today the NYSE tick high has only been 801 despite the higher prices.
Negative for stocks.
2. Advancing Issues, made a new short term high Wednesday at 2527, the most since November 24, 2010 which also had 2527 advances.
Positive for stocks.
3. Cumulative Tick is also showing weakness as the market has rallied back.
Negative for Stocks
4. New Highs are also lagging.
S&P 4/1/11 1332.41 new highs 383
S&P 4/21/11 1334.09 new highs 226
157 fewer issues made new highs when the S&P surpassed the highs of 4/1/11.
Negative for stocks.
5. Up volume ratio has been steadily declining. Negative for stocks.
6. MoMo stocks have been doing well i.e., LULU, TZOO, WYNN, BBBY, VMW, BIDU, DECK, PCLN, SINA to name a few. Both positive and negative as MoMo stocks by definition are frothy but it illustrates that they are still being bought.
The Nasdaq has more positive internals I would call them mixed as well.
The ability of the market to snap back after bad news events also is an important tell. Two years ago the same S&P news might have tanked the market 500 points.
Despite the weaker internal statistics I think that the market has a good chance of making new highs for 2011.
Market closed and everyone taking the day off?
ReplyDeleteHappy good Friday everyone!
ReplyDeleteManny - nope, I'm here.
VERY quiet though. Virtual crickets. Yet another DARK, dreary day here. I'm thinking they should just use MN as the set for the next Batman movie. Dark enough.
ReplyDeleteFeels somewhat like a weekend. Maybe I'll knock off early today?
ReplyDelete@Jeff,
ReplyDeleteBeautiful spring day and long weekend.
Happy Earth day also. Love Google Earthday icon.
@Rock,
May/June are hottest months in India. Take care on your trip. Oct/Nov or Feb/Mar(fall/spring) are best time to visit Rajasthan(desert) if that's part of your trip.
ICan
Same here manny - aside from that little warm spell we had a week ago, we've had a very very cold spring, I've had to keep the heat on at night almost every night in a place you normally wouldn't have to turn the heater on at all more than a few times a winter!
ReplyDeleteI think it's been a cold spring for everyone in the States except for maybe Texas, FL and parts of the SE.
ReplyDeleteMore signs of a, or THE, top in Gold & PM's? The bubble in PM's and commodities, when it blows, is going to be FUGLY.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/22/gold-hits-record-high-americans-sell_n_852320.html
Heckuva a job on that bubble, Benny. Which one will you blow next when this one blows? Back to housing? Tulips?
ReplyDeleteMorning folks
ReplyDeleteMutt
I think the next bubble is already here Manny - Healthcare and Education.
ReplyDeleteBubbles everywhere, Thor. Those two may take longer to blow though.
ReplyDeletePretty striking chart of the USD vs. Oil here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-your-pick-ben-one-goes-cliff
Manny - I was thinking the same thing. If they don't get the medical costs under control though - I think that bubble will pop within the next 10 years. Once the majority of baby boomers retire and are are under medicare.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, Thor. That one's a time bomb, but the boomer retirees are still quite young, so it should take time to play out.
ReplyDelete@Jeff(12:29)
ReplyDeletePick any risk asset. Gold, Silver, Oil, Stocks, Ems stocks and see the reverse correlation with U$D. Then there is the Yen.
Silver is up a $ today.
"Holiday, no holiday. Doesn't matter. Silver still up by a buck".
ICan
@Jeff,
ReplyDelete"Are you trying to call a top in Silver?" - Cory. At http://blog.afraidtotrade.com.
See SLV and ZSL charts. Look at the volume on ZSL as we approach $50 - Hunt brothers' top?
ICan
Syria has caught the revolution bug. Who's next?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/22/syria-protests-spread-as-_n_852405.html
Another "boom" in Silicon Valley? A mini-tech bubble in the offing as well? I do think the social media stuff is getting bublicious and is due for a fall. The questions is when? And how bad?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/another-boom-in-silicon-valley.html
Henry Blodget's got his shorts in an uproar over this Apple tracking thingy.
ReplyDelete/www.businessinsider.com/apple-secret-location-tracking-2011-4
He thinks we're all brainwashed. As per Apple's PR manual section 5 para. 2., I would just like to say that at no time have I felt brainwashed nor has any one at Apple coerced me into accepting any attempts at brainwashing. I have also never experienced a dropped call, cause I hold the phone correctly.
"As China's Income Gap Grows, Tombs Are a Target". www.nytimes.com/2011/04/23/world/asia
ReplyDelete"Chengdu China - Ever since Deng Xiaoping signled in 1978 that it was fine to get rich, much of China has seemed hell bent on that goal. But some local governments would like those who succeed not to lord over others, at least when it comes to paying final respect".
"Ordinary people who walk by and see these lavish tombs might not be able to keep their emotions in balance".
Zombie Tax Lies:
ReplyDeletehttp://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/22/zombie-tax-lies/
Greg - Hahahaha, Henry Blodget is the last person who should be making moral judgments. Wall Street may have forgotten that he's a lying felon - those of us in the rest of the country see him for what he is.
ReplyDelete@greg: One for you:
ReplyDeleteiPhone tracking how secretly dull your life is
http://www.satirewire.com/content1/?p=2787
LOL. I had a similar notion yesterday. I feel BAD for those people who want to follow the every move of my dull-ass life!
“I find it absolutely outrageous that my phone has been secretly documenting the fact that for nearly the past year, I have been going, basically, nowhere,” said Daphne Coleridge, a receptionist and mother of two in Houston. “This is a map of tedium. Home, school, work, store, home, school, work, store, home… wait… dentist. I stand corrected.”
ReplyDelete“With a few exceptions, I’ve spent the last 10 months of my life within 20 miles of the New Jersey Turnpike,” added Caldwell, N.J. resident Brian Porteri. “I’m not so much angry that Apple knows this information, I’m angry that I know this information.”
Expressing the fears of many iPhone owners, Porteri said he is concerned the information could fall into the wrong hands. “If my dad gets a hold of this file, I am screwed,” he said. “It will validate everything he’s ever said about me.”
States to Business: Give our Cash Back
ReplyDeleteAbout time!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704081604576144312226133614.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
Manny, that last paragraph in your link was funny. Maybe that's what Blodget found out about his wife.
ReplyDeleteOffice closing early today - woohoo! I'll see you guys from the desert!
ReplyDeleteHuge windstorm out in the desert, sand flying everywhere, grit in your teeth. The winds mean the weather is about to turn hot for the summer. Biggest storms we've had in years. Should be a hot summer! 120 here I come!
ReplyDelete