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Tuesday, January 11, 2011

What bias?

Hello everybody:

I was considering what bias means in humans and why it's so difficult to be rational and follow facts. That’s what happens to us in the markets and life in general.

It came to mind after thousands of comments in several blogs, how easily people retrench to basest lines of defense and get a blurred vision of facts.
The overwhelming majority ignore this, appeared in the Arizona Daily Star in June but was available on the web Saturday.


“Get on Target for Victory in November. Help remove Gabrielle Giffords from office. Shoot a fully automatic M16 with Jesse Kelly.


Um…help removed…shoot M16...with a politician? All in the same sentence, presented as a fun kind of activity (my guess).
Sounds like an unusual activity to engage in, with a politician. More like preparing for a war.

This invitation makes me wonder could it be that some unstable person read it like a message? Usually unstable people alleged getting lots of messages from TV or radio inciting them to act. Could it be? Well maybe you see a bias.

This wasn’t the important thing in the discussions at all. Troubling.


Now, imagine that I present Wall Street bankers as some kind of kids that cannot control themselves (I would be tacitly implying) that they somehow are not too responsible because kids lack accountability in a serious sense…hey is in their nature…they can’t control themselves, you know kids.
The regulators are the ones mainly responsible because we are dealing with kids.

They are not kids, a racketeering ring is more apt to describe them in my opinion.
So presenting them in that kind of way shows bias too, because relieve them of accountability regarding how many lives got destroyed through time because of them.
(Other groups are involved too, of course).

Just more bias…well, it’s a war right?

And how wars are useful to some few of these rings?

Read what “The fighting Quaker” Maj. Gen. Smedley D. Butler said 75 years ago in “War is a racket” (very short piece available on internet) to have a grasp about beneficiaries of wars and how it works.
http://www.lexrex.com/enlightened/articles/warisaracket.htm

Something besides the book, that he said, caught my attention too :

“…I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class thug for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902–1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents“.


And now we can see a practical sample if it's true that history rhymes,


Argentina 1973-4. Minuscule public debt- self sufficient country. Che Guevara- Bolivia- extremists- bombs- deaths-military coup- people in the far right or left-elite get lots of debt-torture from the government-30000 people disappeared-population scared.

Having the population forced to chose among the two groups of wing nuts, scared from each other and from the government because “it is a war” (like a guy with explosives in their ass or underwear here) so government is allowed to become more and more powerful, intertwined with the elite and then comes the coup de grace, the act of magic:

All the private debt is transformed to public debt, taxpayers are going to pay for 25 years for debt that the elite got, plus the one that government incurred, you know it’s war.

Until the 2000 default. Debt restructured, smaller, so everybody happy now? Just keep paying.

It’s necessary turmoil or even terror so the population acquiesce to a stronger and more paranoid state, where anyone who dares question it, is dumb or unpatriotic . More control and less habeas corpus gets going.

With Bush the debt almost doubled in 8 years, people got silent because well, it’s war or because maybe were scared, maybe?. In 2008 offering the first stimulus and with Obama getting the second one. (probably in the first one he was somehow involved is my logical guess)loans were made again to take care of the world just right on the edge…see… you can almost see down there…the cannon…at the bottom…and the entire world is going to fall right there...and is going to hurt…if the banks don’t get whole and pay themselves royally to overcome their stress.

The question in my mind is just when the act of magic like in Argentina is going to happen again but here:

When all the private debt is transformed in public again, condemning millions of innocents.

They are not kids with candy at all. That’s just another bias.



Dan



Sorry I didn’t talk about astrology and the markets but this is my final piece about what I get on the web. I’m not going to bother you with that anymore for sure, I’m going to focused just on my stuff from now on.

I couldn’t resist because I love this nation and it hurts to witness the same crap for a second time in my life.

Next week I’m going to get about if the Fed governs equity prices or if they are just morons or what, (in my humble opinion).

41 comments:

  1. So firing up both sides produce the delightful result (for the very few) that they don't get to notice what is being commited.

    It's just displacing attention to commit fraud.

    Paying attention to public employees is the new black, the hot stuff to get everybody riled up now, right?

    Dan

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  2. Thanks for the insight, Dastro.
    I used to work in a place where before we went into the staff meeting, a few of us would get together and decide at whom we should get the Boss' cannon aimed at. He was volitile, and no telling which way he'd aim.

    So we would plant a few words amongst ourselves, then play the cards at the meeting. None of us were ever shot.

    I agree with you, that's what's happening now so we turn the cannon away from the Banksters. Did you see the news about GS "opening their Kimono"? Yeah, right. Right after they said "no more emails about any deals".

    I have a lot of opinions, especially about how people who command the control systems can make a few calls, and with a slight nudge on one of the support systems, cause the landslide to go in the direction they want. But it's best to just keep trading the charts.

    @Dss: I am thinking about your VXX position.

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  3. @Dastro,

    Thanks for the post.

    @Rock,

    You rock! "it's best to just keep trading the charts". Couldn't have said better myself.

    ICan

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  4. In my big boys' screen (trades > 1/4 Billion U$D), I've noticed several high end retail names getting dumped:

    RL, COH, DIS, GME, JCG KSS, GPS TGT MCD

    All since the 4th of Jan, in a family of a total of 35 quarter-billion dollar trades.

    That's 25%. That's far too high a percentage to be a coincidence. I think the big boys are looking for retail to poo the bed during the earnings season.

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  5. @James,

    Were you able to get World Wind 1.4 to work and did you see the world weather? See what I mean by pollution control in one country doesn't matter that much.

    ICan

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  6. From businessinsider.com/10 things you need to know before the opening bell.

    Japan is buying Irish bonds. China bought Spanish debt.

    ECB hought Portuguese debt.

    Tiffany has raised its fiscal outlook. Holiday sales increased 11%.

    After crashing over 9% in one hour Monday, the Dhaka(Bangladesh) stock exchange rebounded 15% today. Remember, yesterday traders rioted after
    they lost money.

    China also bought Greece debt.

    When you have the Fed printing, Japan printing, China loaded with $, ECB printing, can this market go down. Bangladesh just printed and bought shares.

    ICan

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  7. Good one, Dan. Bottom line is I think the truth is too sobering to face for most people so it's just easier to pretend it's not there, until it is, and then we likely come up with the wrong solutions to address it, while being nudged there by the elites who only want to protect their own interests above all.

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  8. @Rock: I think retail's going to be a rather large canary in the coal mine. In the meantime, carry on bulls.

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  9. @ICan:

    Yes, add TIF to my field of retail dumps. The 996 thousand shares at $62 puts it only at 62 million, but it's a big sell too. I mean, not 1/4 Billion big, but big for me....

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  10. Meanwhile, home prices continue their slow slide downward.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/corelogic-house-prices-declined-16-in.html

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  11. So I wonder, when this latest stock market bubble crashes, what will the Fed due to pump another bubble? Will they try to get the herd to go back to buying homes again after they've fallen so much? Is this what our "economy" has been reduced to, the herd chasing artificial Fed, greed and stupidity-induced bubbles around? Good grief.

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  12. Dan - Excellent post my friend!

    Re: personal responsibility; funny how the right wing likes to trot that out when it comes to debt repayment, and this more recent tragedy. I guess personal responsibility doesn't apply to CEO's and bankers.

    Hadn't connected the disappearances in Argentina to our current war on terror and our before forced to choose between dumb n dumber.

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  13. David Rosenberg's advice on commodities.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/markets-blog/market-view.video/

    Long term investor - wait for China to stop tighting their monetary policy - 6 month or so, then buy. Long term commodities look good but now over bought.

    ICan

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  14. Busy morning so far at work :-/

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  15. ICan - I got it down loaded and installed, I got it up, but have not had a chance to play with it yet.

    Nights are pretty busy for me with my sons functions (Usually 4 nights a week sometimes 5 -Kids...) and it was also my wifes birthday.

    I am hoping I have time after work tonight to take a better look at it.

    Thanks

    James

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  16. Good article - different (not American) perspective.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e494922-1cef-11e0-8c86-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Abh5mRhr

    Please respect FT.com's ts&cs and copyright policy which allow you to: share links; copy content for personal use; & redistribute limited extracts. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights or use this link to reference the article - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e494922-1cef-11e0-8c86-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1AkUVazIT

    Once you move beyond the central demand for limited government that holds the Tea Party together, you quickly discover a fog of conspiracy theories, much of it expressed in wild language and backed up with violent imagery. There are accusations of betrayal, lies and manipulation at the heart of government. Barack Obama is said to be a foreigner who is ineligible to be president. He is also a socialist or, perhaps, a fascist. The Federal Reserve is conspiring with foreigners to debase the currency. George Soros, the financier, is a “puppet-master”, intent on the overthrow of the US government. Sharia law is being practised in parts of Michigan.

    These accusations are not simply made on the crazier fringes of the internet. The charges against Mr Soros were made in a two-part television special presented by Glenn Beck, the darling of Fox Television and the Tea Party. The stuff about Sharia law was aired by Sharron Angle, the Republican candidate for the Senate in Nevada.

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  17. Dan,

    Wonderful post! The cartoonish sounding Smedley Butler was right then and even more right now.

    The dirty little secrets of "free market" capitalism!

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  18. @Dan,

    "Does Controversial Study Prove ESP is Real?"

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504763_162_20027637-10391704.html

    "According to the New York Times, the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology plans to publish the result of nine experiments...".

    I good(thought provoking) programme on PBS called "Thinking Allowed" comes to mind.

    ICan

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  19. I love it when everyone keeps repeating, Loughner was crazy, not an ideologue, as if they were mutually exclusive or that a crazy person cannot hear or be influenced by the media or internet.

    Fox News is so pervasive; bars, restaurants, coffee shops, airports, waiting rooms from every service imaginable, and the endless repetition of talking points invades all media.

    I think that Gifford's opponent is getting off easy, everyone is concentrating on Palin but I would bet that Kelly's campaign ads were everywhere the last year.

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  20. @Dan:good post. Thanks for “The fighting Quaker”, didn't know about it, may make for an interesting read. Loved the line:
    "Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents“.

    See, the looting of many "developing nations" is one of those truths that make me feel somewhat uneasy about my country, and the West in general. And it's not like it's over either. The looting goes on, African nations being a prime example of this.

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  21. Rock,

    I exited my VXX yesterday at the close as it was a loser (one of my rules is to close out a position if it is a loser by the close) and oil did not confirm.

    Plus the 10 year had an NR7 and the ES had an inside day.

    I see that the 10 years broke hard today out of the narrow range from yesterday.

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  22. @Thor,

    I am sure that the foreign press just sighed and said, not again.

    The fact that the Tea Party gets treated as if it were just another main stream party (with a few kooks that make for good theatre) here in America tells you all you want to know about how far this country has fallen.

    It is not just about impolite political discourse, it is about how the far right extremist fringe has been accepted as just another kooky party, harmless folk who carry guns to political rallies and who vow the violent overthrow of our government. And the loonies in the Republican party go along with it because it serves them well.

    Which is why regardless if this man was influenced or not, the right's violent push back vigorously dening that a gun toting anti-government, Democrat hating murderer is not one of their own, when the day before the massacre he fit their profile, perfectly.

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  23. @Wolfie,

    You might be able to Google his book as I think that is where I read it first a few years ago.

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  24. Also love the polls being conducted - things lke "57% think there is no connection to shooting and current political rhetoric"

    Ok that's great, but that over 40% do think there is some connection should be a concern. Whether there is a connection or not, this should be discussed and not immediately shouted down.

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  25. @Denise:thks, but Dan provided the link already.

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  26. Following on the topic, what I think is we the sheeple hold our share of guilt. We're aware of this "post-colonization" policy, but we've never united to try and make it end.

    That being said, the real criminals are the usual suspects. That's the politicians and their lobby masters. They may argue that they're doing it for the good of their country. Economically speaking, that's true, however I don't recall being asked for agreement beforehand.

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  27. As an aside,and that may be my first and last word about politics on this blog:add to the guilt of perpetrating the looting of foreign nations, the guilt of spoiling their own people.

    No matter which side you consider, left, right, whatever:to my eyes, they're all tied by their own little mischiefs, and general acceptance of immoral practices.

    I'm not for death sentence. Imprisonment for life a la Madoff will do. A benefice of holding such a politic agnostic view, is that you don't have to bother with this stuff anymore, nor engage into endless arguments, trying to figure which hypocrite is the lesser evil.:p

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  28. Wolfie - I would agree with your 1:31. Choosing between the lesser or two evils is about all we've got here these days.

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  29. Market cracking like an egg. At ZH they claimed it was a 6b es trade.

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  30. Big moves today in Crude, 10y, gold barely budged.

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  31. Denise - I am looking at the market decline, do you have a take on it?

    Mutt

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  32. We are still consolidating under the last highs in the S&P, Nasdaq has been stronger.

    The small pullback didn't last long and since we are higher than yesterday it looks like the trend might continue.

    We need the market to break and close below yesterday's lows for any meaningful downtrend to begin.

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  33. Plus crude is up strongly today and the 10 year is much lower, we need the 10 year to take out today's highs as a confirmation.

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  34. In plain English, the 10 year and crude are not confirming the sell off.

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  35. Denise - Thanks, so if the 10 year went up and crued went down, then that might indcate there was an actual sell off happening?

    Thanks

    Mutt

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  36. Yes, usually the 10y trades inversely to stocks, crude is highly correlated to the stock market so if crude is making new highs (demand is high) it can be assumed that better economic conditions are causing it.

    You are looking for confirmations or non-confirmations, not absolute price levels and occasionally these things are not totally in sync.

    So looking at the sell off today I look for a confirmation of further market weakness and I didn't see it.

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  37. Denise - Thank you for sharing that insight.

    Although I have not personally seen it, what you say makes sense.

    Mutt

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  38. @WS,(1:31)

    With all due respect.

    Re: "looting foreign nations".

    As a person born in India, and constantly in touch, I can say there are more "home grown" looters than foreign. Everyday, I read Indian newspapers in the evening to find what's happening there. I find one major corruption news almost everday. It's not "penuts" money. It's billions. IT's always been like that - from religious leaders, to political leaders. Today, Central Vigilance Commissioner, PJ Thomas faces trial in Palm oil scam.

    Matter fact it was religious leaders who demoralised people to the extent that they were unable to stand up to foreign rulers. That's why India has been invaded by foreign invaders for centuries.


    As majority of people get educated and become aware of their rights, true democracy will take hold. That's my hope. It's happening, albeit slowly. India has done well so far.

    Human nature is corrupt - greed and ego and need to control. It's there regardless of colour, gender or race!


    ICan

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  39. @ICan

    Well, at least India has a fantastic Central Bank that is a model for the West (according to an article Denise highlighted last week). So, you got that going for you.

    Been reading and hearing about the terrible freezing weather that's killing mostly the homeless in India. I pray that Mother Nature gives it a break very soon.

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  40. Crazy weather everywhere this year.

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  41. TCM is playing old Laurel & Hardy, I haven't seen these since I was a kid. What a different time.

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