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Friday, January 14, 2011

Volatility As An Asset Class



I came across an intriguing idea about treating volatility as an asset class, which commonly consists of equities, fixed income, cash equivalents, real estate, and commodities.

Vix and More

Bill Luby is the author of the blog "Vix and More" and he was asked recently to do a guest columnist for Barron's "The Striking Price".

From his website:

"Speaking of which, I have elected to focus on volatility as an asset class for today’s guest column, which bears the title, Ways to Turn Volatility into an Asset Class. Part of my thesis is that 2011 is the year that volatility goes mainstream, largely due to the rise of volatility-based exchange-traded products, which are in the process of bringing volatility trading to the masses. I also repeat an earlier assertion that before the year is over, XVIX and XIV will gain significant traction as buy and hold volatility vehicles."

Ways to Turn Volatility into an Asset Class

There is a quiet revolution going on in the investment world. Volatility, once seen as the domain of institutions and options traders, is about to enter the mainstream and by the end of the year should be well on its way to becoming established as a mainstream asset class.

In sum, volatility is moving into the mainstream and becoming accepted as an asset class. The most recent crop of volatility-based ETPs has accelerated that process with vehicles that are suitable for buy and hold investors and also take advantage of the persistent contango in VIX futures.

These products are frequently misunderstood, but among the group are excellent alternatives for hedging, diversification and speculation. In short, the investment opportunities are substantial enough that it makes it worth the time and effort to learn the idiosyncrasies of these volatility ETPs.




These exciting new vehicles will allow investors and traders to take advantage of a new and more accurate way to hedge risk, speculate and to diversify their portfolios. Given that Black Swans are as common as turkeys these days it pays to know as much as possible about using volatility.

59 comments:

  1. Thank you Denise very good to know that. So maybe the chances that wild wild rides will persist for the foreseeable future start to decrease a little if they become too popular.


    I-can
    Not familiar with ESP at all but would be nice to check Lloyd screen.

    Today article oh...mainstream media Ptolemy saw it around 150 AD (1900 years ago).

    MSM is a little um...dangerous confusing people. ;)

    I-Man
    I'm back tomorrow night and I'll ask Denise your e-mail.

    What I was looking for in Nov 15-16 and now is a more pronounced correction nothing crazy though, but probably is just my bias.

    Mutt
    I don't know google analytics but Thor does, and the previous dust up ended with an agreement to let the last two post stand in the comments section as a last request and it was honored.
    So no more for me.Denise is in charge.

    Dan

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  2. Seems as if things are heating up in Tunisia. Interesting times....

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/world/africa/15tunis.html?_r=1&hp

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  3. @Dss

    Good post. A good idea, as I've been watching VXX now for awhile, and it's action based on several of my other primary watchlists.

    I will observe an interesteng phenemenonmemenm or however you spell that.

    I run this scanner after the close which looks for volume * sell price >1/4 Billion $. When I run the scanner at about 11PM your time, I get some results. When I run the scanner a little later, around 3AM your time, I get different results. I haven't reached a conclusion why this happens yet, but it's interesting. When I look at my chart for the price action, it usually doesn't show a price change for that time period (I can get after-hours ticker info), so it must be the volume is changing somehow.

    Also, sometimes I see in the scan a stock which has huge volume doesn't change in price, and sometimes it changes depending on the pressure, that is, sell pressure pushes the price action lower.

    I can't explain no price change with huge volume, either.

    Anyway, you asked about the "bird" formation. I was looking for a perfect example, and I see it in your post chart. Separate out from '07 onward, and look at the chart for that. Then go to the mirror, raise your right fist, raise your middle finger, and notice the similarity.

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  4. I finished reading yesterday's blog. Man, all the action seems to happen after I go to bed.

    But 120 comments, wow, not bad, Thor.

    BTW, I cut off doing my P90X after I started fitting back into my tux, but after reading the comments, I better start back up again to fit in here......

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  5. Hah - sounds like someone lost a lot of money in FAS/FAZ. It remains to be seen whether or not XIV and XVIX are going to suffer from either time decay or negative gamma the way many of the other 3X ETF's were. To dismiss them out of hand in such a flippant way sounds a tad too . . . familiar.

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  6. Is is just me or is the gold chart looking weak?

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  7. More on food price spikes:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/latest-inflation-riot-tally-algeria-tunisia-morocco-yemen-and-jordan

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  8. Are food prices rising much here? I've noticed gas prices going back up ($3.50 here now) but I'm not in charge of grocery shopping in my house so I'm not sure.

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  9. @Thor: Anecdotally, it seems to me they are rising but not anywhere near as much as some would suggest. I think that retailers are having a hard time passing on costs to a largely broke consumer (at least the non-wealthy), which are likely squeezing their margins. Maybe it's coming though?

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  10. Although there is some deceptive packaging going on out there, I think, with smaller packaging but "same" prices.

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  11. I wonder about the small packaging - the big food companies are already doing that in Europe and I know it's done here as well, just haven't noticed it too much in the things I do buy. In the UK they were talking about how grocery stores were not going to be able to pass much of the increase in VAT along to the consumer because they were so tapped out.

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  12. I have a hunch that's the real reason we're seeing such an exodus in equity mutual funds. So many people (I know some of them myself) are raiding what's left of their savings and retirement money to use for living expenses and to at least temporarily keep up their lifestyles in the absence of a regular and/or sufficient paycheck to do so.

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  13. Checked out quick blurb in today's local rag. 2010 was worst year for housing market here in DECADES. Not shocking, I know, but with all of this "recovery" talk, I find it hard to believe that it's truly sustainable unless the housing market truly stabilizes. I know it's winter here and not many people buy homes during this time, but it must be brutal to be a realtor here right now. NOTHING is moving. I mean nada, zip, zilch. If things don't turn around in a meaningful way on that front (and it's hard to see how they do until jobs come back) this spring during the prime season, we could see another big downleg, I think. Got our tax assessment on our home for '11 and it's good news/bad news - the bad news is our estimated home value has gone down again (now nearly $50K off of what we bought it for in '05), but the good news is our taxes will be based off of that. Of course, they're increasing them 10%, so they're still probably going up in real terms. So it's mostly bad news, actually!

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  14. Good morning all.

    Emmy, look at that gold. Maybe the world is not coming to an end after all.

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  15. @Manny,

    Then there is this:

    Bank Walk Aways Add To Crisis

    Research shows 1,896 red flag homes in Chicago appear to have been abandoned during foreclosure process.

    "The whole concept of charging off creates this limbo land," said Dan Lindsey, an attorney at the Legal Assistance Foundation of Metropolitan Chicago. "There's still a lien that can follow the borrower."

    In November, a U.S. Government Accountability Office report on the frequency and impact of abandoned foreclosures noted that Midwestern industrial cities, including Chicago, seem to bear the brunt of bank walkaways, leaving neighborhoods in deeper distress and cities left to shoulder the associated costs of dealing with unsafe, often unsecured homes.

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  16. Watch out for acetaminophen. FDA is looking at it again, and is considering, or has, not sure, lowered the limit used in vicodin.

    I don't take pain killers. Pain is good. It lets me know I'm alive. When it stops, I know I'm in trouble.

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  17. Wow Denise. I'm expecting a fair amount of foreclosure, bank-owned shadow inventory to hit the market here this spring, which will likely further depress prices. I hope I'm wrong though.

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  18. Silver taking it on the chin as well. The ZH crowd must be going nuts over supposed "manipulation".

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  19. @Emmanuel117(10:38)


    Take a look Daneric's take on Gold - Yesterday I linked to his post. Long term $480(?).

    But, I as a person of India origin keep gold forever. I hope so.

    ICan

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  20. Gold at $480? Wowzers, that's a pretty big call. Is there a timeline ICan?

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  21. Rock - I had to LOL at your pain comment, I am simular to you.

    I will take ibuprophen before bed sometimes or if I get a bad headache (Rare), but I avoid the more harsh pain killers.

    Pain is good to a certain point and even when my back flares up, I am truly gratful to be able to feel the pain, but I do try and manage that with ibuprophen.

    Mutt

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  22. There's good pain (from physical activity) and bad pain (from a hangover). I like to medicate for the latter when those rare cases arise. LOL.

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  23. A nice hot tub soak takes away a lot of pain!

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  24. @ICan

    Too early to be watching for that. Gold hasn't gone hyperbolic-stupid yet.

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  25. Now this is interesting:

    Gold Overdue For Drop After Decade of Gains - Rice to Rally

    Gold is “overdue for a rest” and probably will fall after a decade of gains that sent prices to a record, said Jim Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999.

    While gold “may go down for awhile,” the metal is “going to go over $2,000 in this decade,” Rogers, who owns gold, silver and rice, said today during a presentation to business executives in Chicago. Gold touched a record $1,432.50 an ounce in New York on Dec. 7. The price closed today at $1,387.

    “I’d rather own rice,” Rogers said. “I’d rather own something that’s more depressed than gold.”

    He is predicting an ag boom supported by a weakening dollar.

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  26. Rice

    This is a better chart of weekly rice.

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  27. The only ETF that has any Rice in it that I could find is RJA and that is a miniscule 1.433%.

    RJA Components

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  28. @Thor,

    re gold/ Daneric's gold call - http://danericselliotwaves.blogspot.com

    "Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 January(Update 6:33 PM)

    "...drip-drip-drip death march back to $475..which is my bear market target LONG TERM..I think a major bounce would occur first at $681 though).

    I think everyone should do their own due diligence and trade on just one call/advise. I tend to look at both bear/bull blogs.

    ICan

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  29. What Goldman Sachs Failed to Acknowledge

    "Or perhaps it is a thin smokescreen. The Goldman report does have one revealing statement (on page 1, under their “Business Principles”): “We consider our size an asset that we try hard to preserve.”

    As John Cochrane, a University of Chicago professor and frequent contributor to The Wall Street Journal put it recently, “The incentive for the banks is to be as big, as systemically dangerous, as possible.”

    This is how big banks ensure they will be bailed out.

    On this point there is already perfect alignment of insider interests with what their shareholders want – there is no conflict of interest to be addressed. As Professor Admati points out, when a bank is too big to fail, adding leverage raises the return on equity in good times (boosting employee bonuses and the return for shareholders) – and in bad times a bailout package awaits."
    ================================================
    When the next Black Swan arrives due to excess leverage the Goldman Sachs of the world know that they will be rewarded for taking excessive risks, and fight all regulatory efforts to reign them in.

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  30. ICAN - Good advice. I'm always wary of the more extreme calls after the last few years. Seems those very seldom pan out. Elliot Wave seems to be pretty big on those kinds of call. I wonder if that's the system itself, or the way particular people interpret the data. I know some of it can be open to interpretation.

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  31. Worthless Stocks from China
    When a retiree in Texas discovered that some Chinese companies listed in the U.S. are frauds, he unleashed an army of short-sellers


    The capital at stake is significant. Shares of such reverse mergers are held by many funds available to retail investors, including Oppenheimer Main Street Small Cap Fund (OPMSX) and the PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio, and are scooped up by small-cap index funds. Roth Capital Partners, an investment bank in Newport Beach, Calif., that has been one of the most active in helping such Chinese companies raise money, recently tried to measure the Chinese reverse merger market. It came up with a list of 94 companies with market capitalizations of between $50 million and $1 billion that trade an average of at least 50,000 shares daily, with a total stock market value of more than $20 billion.

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  32. Trend day up so far, ticks higher than yesterday, but the AD line is not confirming the new highs.

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  33. Follow up on that Astrology change

    http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/13/no-your-zodiac-sign-hasnt-changed/

    Who knew there were two systems?

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  34. Thor (1:09) - Your comment about Elliot Wave hitting on the extremes is a good point.

    This is not a knock on EW, but from a novice EWer like myself it does seem to indicate the extremes and (like myself) if the person looking at the charts does not understand there are a lot of other factors to consider, it is easy to get caught up in it.

    I think when EW does connect, it knocks it out of the park, but most of the time it is just bunting or hitting in field flies.

    I know EW can be a valuable tool for some, but for the last year or so I have struggle with grasping EW and I think that might be a factor in it.

    Thanks for the insight.

    Mutt

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  35. Mutt - Yup yup, application of a particular system can be as important as the system itself! Not every practitioner comes to the table with the same set of skills, background, understanding, etc.

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  36. I wonder if Daneric's gold call will be a bad as his July 2010 stock market call?

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  37. @dss.

    Wasn't that RR- Richard Russell - You won't recongnise the market , or something like that.

    ICan

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  38. @ 12:30

    Meant to say "Not" trade on one call.


    ICan

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  39. Cdn market is open on Monday. Not that it matter that much

    ICan

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  40. I wonder how many different indicators we use here collectively. I'll bet there aren't too many we're missing.

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  41. Daneric also was very bearish at that time.

    Daneric Friday July 9th 2010

    I don't follow him at all so maybe he changed his tune after that. EW to me is about as accurate as a VooDoo doll.

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  42. I wouldn't imagine that everyone who uses it would rely 100% on it. The best traders I've watched over the last couple years all seem to use a combination of different systems.

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  43. EMS, PMs, oil, U$D, commodity stocks being sold today.

    North American stocks are being bought. Banks, oil cos.etc.

    ICan

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  44. @Thor,

    I use almost exclusively internal statistics manipulated in 100 ways.

    They are not subject to interpretation. They are concrete, definable, and hard evidence of what is going on as opposed to squishy interpretations.

    Pattern recognition and market structure are equally important when trying to determine where the market stands.

    Many indicators are for useful for timing, price levels or determining market structure but not very good for predictions.

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  45. @ICan,

    Nice bull flag on the Euro. I thought maybe we might get to Europe this year but not if the Euro keeps going up.

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  46. President of Tunisia flees.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/world/africa/15tunis.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1295035228-jYVrXdoY3PnkZ4zbOHd8Aw

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  47. Buy the rumor, sell the news on banks after JPM reported good numbers?.

    All the blogs I read are saying overbought blah blah...

    ICan

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  48. Manny - The president of Tunisia was just overthrown.

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  49. Funny, and to what extent will they go on printing?

    India is subsidising onions or else they( the elities will also have to flee).


    I Can

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  50. That's right, Thor. It seems that things are bubbling over in many countries these days.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/world/africa/15region.html?hp

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  51. I wonder how that's going to work out - We should have learned by now from Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine, that full and free democracy in the Arab world very seldom works out in our favor.

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  52. Partly why democracy doesn't work in emerging markets -

    Illiteracy, poverty, strong religious beliefs(some people just accept whatever belief system their ancester taught them without questioning) etc.

    It's so so so hard to change that. Unless, or until an able leader who is truly willing to bring in a meaningful change for the people. The vaccum left by an authoritarian leader is usually filled by many factions trying to grab hold of power for their own exploitation.

    And then there is human nature, greed, ego and need to conrol.

    ICan

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  53. F is on my radar.

    The weekly chart shows clear w's with the right side higher. Same as daily. Same as hourly. the weekly relative strength is almost entirely above 0 since, Nov except for around Nov 17-19.

    Bloomberg's comments about F are pretty positive. See
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/gm-december-total-u-s-sales-up-7-5-est-up-4-3-.html

    I'll see what happens when the 60 min stocs fall back to the 20% line, but they've been above since Dec 30th.

    I think it was Mannwich who posted about F the other day.

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  54. Also, MEE has had a nice pullback. over the last day or so, the relative strength slope is rising, which is very bullish, It's about to move it's 20 day MA, where it got support before, not that I believe in that stuff at all.

    If you draw the trend line starting around Nov 3, it's bumping that one.

    I started a position a few minutes ago and will see what happens on Monday. Oh wait, we're closed monday, right?

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  55. Because The Seahawks winJanuary 14, 2011 at 5:03 PM

    Rock - Yes the market and a lot of other places will be closed on Monday, this is to give the world time to celibrate the Seattle Seahawks win over the Chicago Bears.

    Not quite sure how they knew in advance they would win though....


    Mutt

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  56. 81 degrees outside right now - It's days like these I remember why I moved to SOCAL in the first place!

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  57. Volume on Citi tody. - double the average

    It's buy the rumor or some fund accumulating?

    Because if it's buy the rumor then I should sell.

    ICan

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