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Thursday, January 27, 2011

Friday Potpouri





All Egypt All The Time

ElBaradei's return to Egypt could offer the opportunity for a good alternative to the current leadership.

When ElBaradei, the former UN nuclear chief and Noble Peace prize winner, announced in late 2009 that he was returning to settle in Egypt after decades abroad and to work to move the country toward democracy, it created political waves.


an action unprecedented in Internet history

"At 22:34 UTC (00:34am local time), Renesys observed the virtually simultaneous withdrawal of all routes to Egyptian networks in the Internet's global routing table. Approximately 3,500 individual BGP routes were withdrawn, leaving no valid paths by which the rest of the world could continue to exchange Internet traffic with Egypt's service providers. Virtually all of Egypt's Internet addresses are now unreachable, worldwide."

"Internet and mobile phone text message users in Egypt have reported a major disruption to services as the country prepares for a new wave of protests against the 30-year rule of Hosni Mubarak, the president."

(Can this happen in the United States?)

In pictures: Anger in Egypt


138 comments:

  1. @Thor

    Administrative/local political nightmare in the making.

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  2. @Thor

    Merging nine cities over such a huge area. China is getting along in the world, but they aren't that advanced yet. Plus, those nine cities have politicians.

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  3. @Mannwich

    From yesterday's (Thursday's) thread: this weekend, before you go to sleep at night, try reading this:

    http://www.nationalhomeless.org/publications/crimreport/meanestcities.html

    Don't read it now. It will make the rest of your day feel pretty lousy.

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  4. @Dss
    Yes, it can happen in the US.

    Basically, the internet was invented at MIT funded by DARPA as a means for communication to happen regardless of spot outages. Phone switches were point-to-point, and taking out one switch would disable communications over that entire link. The theory behind the internet was that with protocol action, ways around a given spot outage could be derived, maintaining end-to-end communications. Basically, it was an invention to work-around nuclear war which would take out communications through cities.

    But over the years, we realized that what was conceived wasn't implementable. Ever since the creation of DARPA-net (the forerunner of the Intenet) we have created means to direct communications paths. If a path is removed, the end-to-end communication is broken. The means are called BGP, or "Border Gateway Protocol" routers, who are loaded by administrators with tables directing traffic. The table load is not automatic, because of service agreements (you have to pay for traffic).

    The DOD is aware of specific hub locations that can be removed which will block traffic making end-to-end communication impossible.

    It can happen, and in the event of a popular uprising, probably will.

    It actually happened in Milpitas once, when a contractor by mistake backhoed a major fiber cable in half. The east bay could not talk to the Peninsula.

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  5. Thanks Rock. I'll read it later.

    Wow, F getting smoked today. Was something announced on that front?

    TLT under 91. A lot of red on my screen.

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  6. @Dss:
    Which brings up another point. As you know, I'm old. I set stops at various points, usually pretty close to my entry point, but I set stops. On everything. Just in case.

    In the event of some event that causes the net to go down, you won't have the opportunity to sell if the event causes the market to plummet. 9/11 comes to mind.

    On 9/11, I got out of everything except something that had a stop limit order. At that time, I didn't know the difference between stop market and stop limit.

    So, bottom line, everyone, set stops on every buy you make.

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  7. Wow, that's quite a list, Rock. Not too many surprises though. I'll have to read the whole thing later afer a few drinks. Or maybe not.

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  8. A lot of bible belt-ish cities on the list too. Figures.

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  9. Morning all!

    Ican - Gas is $3.50 a gallon here, not $4.50 - don't know where my head was yesterday!

    Heard a beautiful story this morning on my way in to work. People in Cairo driving around picking up protesters who have been hit with tear gas. That sounds like something Egyptians would do!

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  10. Manny - I had to do a double take on F. The news story on them this morning was that they just had their most profitable year since 1999. Fascinating how you can hear one thing on the MSM, and then come to work and see an entirely different reality online!

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  11. @Thor: Obviously a sell the news moment.

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  12. @MAnnwich

    I really like the action in F. I can't wait to buy.

    Buy the dips, sell the blips!

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  13. This thing unfolding in Egypt is quite amazing.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/world/middleeast/29unrest.html?_r=1&hp

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  14. @All
    Which reminds me, make sure you're out the day of reporting. Regardless of the history that 70% of companies beat estimates over the last 6 quarters, it is just as easy to beat estimates and drop like a flying monkey.

    The best thing to do is set market short and buy orders. somedimes brokers won't let you do that, so you may need to open another account.

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  15. Here comes our correction, perhaps?

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  16. @Mannwich
    Naw. It's just the pullback on the W formation. See, 128.99 is a higher low from 128.13, and the stochs have just about returned to the 20% point.

    Now, if we take out 128.13, we might have a concern but would have to wait for the next high to see if it's lower than 130.35.

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  17. My little short doing quite nicely today though. Finally.

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  18. Thought a top was forming there (and I still do) over the past few weeks to a month.

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  19. Good morning, late start today.

    It seems like the market wants to sell off today, we could see a decent down day as there is pretty good volume and downside impulse.

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  20. Sell the news on F. Consumer confidence better and the market sells off. Maybe we might be seeing a turn in the market, at least for a few sessions. We are certainly due for a correction.

    Euro is selling off hard.

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  21. @Rock,

    I was referring to the civil unrest as well as the internet outages. Obviously, they could just pull a few plugs and we will all be sitting in the dark.

    Thanks for the history lesson.

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  22. We might be having an official trend day after after two narrow range days.

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  23. I think it's correction time and am sticking to it. Finally my short kicking some ass. You chartists will be happy to know that I've been employing some of your tools to diagnose this one.

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  24. Nice slice through the 128.12 area, next stop 127.14, but it is difficult to imagine it getting there today, as that would be another 100 points down, approx.

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  25. Ginormous volume on the ES the last 15 minutes.

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  26. Hey look at that! Remains to be seen whether the correction continues into next week. Manny, I'm going to take the opposite side of your call. I think we have one or two more down days and then resume the insane climb.

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  27. Ruling party headquarters set ablaze. Wow.

    http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/latest-updates-on-protests-in-egypt/?hp

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  28. BR's site seems to be down for me. Traffic up today?

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  29. Coming to a U.S. near you (us)?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/world/asia/28generation.html?hp

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  30. Is the beach ball coming back today?

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  31. If we drop below the last intraday's lows of 127.69 then I would suspect that the beach ball has been popped, at least for today.

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  32. Oil and Middle East!

    Suncor is at 52 week high and the volume is something else.


    ICan

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  33. Some thoughts posted at TBP by David Kotok:

    Strategy Change in ETF Accounts

    "We are worried about the developing geopolitical risk in the Middle East and North Africa. We do not know where it will spread nor do we know how it will run its course. We also do not know what direction these regimes will take if there is over throw of the existing system in any of these countries. We do know that we see turmoil in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen."

    Not advice, but interesting to see how some money managers are positioning themselves.

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  34. Beach Ball looks to be inflating again.

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  35. @emmy: I can't understand that valuation at all. LinkedIn's a nice little site, but is it really "worth" $2 billion?

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  36. And now, the election
    Stop focusing on the ballot and start focusing on the issues


    As the Supreme Court's majority noted in a sternly worded opinion Thursday, the questions raised by those who sought to knock Emanuel from the ballot have been repeatedly and consistently addressed by a ruling issued almost 150 years ago.



    We should all be grateful that the Supreme Court stepped in quickly and set things right. The Appellate Court's trailblazing legal detour nearly threw the mayoral race into irreversible chaos, but that was just the beginning. It would have saddled Illinois with a new and far more restrictive standard for all future elections — a standard so vague that it would call into question the residency of state lawmakers who travel to Springfield, snowbirds who winter in Florida and, for that matter, any resident of Chicago who spends the night on a friend's couch in Naperville.

    And, by the way, it's "without any foundation in Illinois law," in the words of the Supreme Court.

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  37. Ems are sold today. FXI and EPI - India over 3.75%

    ICan

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  38. I wonder what the Egyptian elites are thinking - the ruling class - politicians, administrators, judiciary, the military top brass all those help the corrupt system intact.

    I wonder if they are counting their inventory of assets inside and outside of the country and if they got thir jets ready too.

    "The Obama team is tilting slightly away from Hosni Mubrak"...according an articly in the Globe and Mail

    ICan

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  39. One reason why Suncor may have gained over 4.5% today may be due to Suez Canal closure concerns.

    "Suez Canal closure concerns go viral". Zerohedge.com

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  40. Am I reading this correctly? THe military is fighting with the police in Cairo?

    Damn busy fridays!!

    Manny, you following this today? :-)

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  41. @Dss
    I pop in and out of NVDA, just so I don't fall asleep. I got out around 1AM (that's 12:00 noon) or so yesterday, I didn't reverse the situation until this morning after the ORB reversed, got back in the short at 24.30. Back out again now, at 23.45.

    I can't remember how long it's been since I've seen a quad top like that. This time there's a lower low, but it's kind of unfair because of Cairo, so I can't count it really.

    My guess (Sorry, Mannwich) is that the overnight futures will create a pop upwards, and we will before Turn Around Tuesday, recover most of this itty bitty selloff.

    So do you remember the ad "Nobody Doesn't Like Sara Lee?" My mom used to take me to the SL factory outlet, I think on Milwaukee Ave, just to give me a breath of fresh air. And she'd buy factory seconds on the coffee cakes. They were the best. Bloomberg is constantly talking about SL.

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  42. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

    #
    1920: The EU's foreign policy chief, Baroness Catherine Ashton, has called on Egyptian authorities to release demonstrators detained during the anti-government protests immediately, AFP reports.

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  43. @Thor: Busy day today, but I am following it when I can.

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  44. Specifically what lit the match in Egypt? Was it rising food prices? If so, doesn't the U.S. have some blood in its hands in that regard? Or was it just numerous things that finally boiled to the surface? But what lit the match? The Tunisia stuff?

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  45. Denise - Going to put up a protest pic if that's ok with you. Ugh these poor people, I'm so upset :-(

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  46. Manny - Tunisia let a spark that I think has been simmering in Egypt for decades.

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  47. @Mannwich

    I'd bet food prices as the match, poverty and unemployment as the gasoline.

    I wonder if this sort of thing will spread if we have a hot summer.

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  48. Maybe Egypt was, and is, our Black Swan setting in motion all sorts of adverse events?

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  49. Ruling Party HQ on fire. I think this might be it. Cairo stock market down by a third, their currency at it's lowest level in six years. Manny, this very well could be a black swan event. THink about what this means for the war on terror, relations with Israel, governments in Syria, Saudi Arabia, etc

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  50. @Thor: I'm thinking the same. The implications on stability in the Middle East could be dire. And on the price of oil.

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  51. That's what I think too, emmy. I guess the O man wanted us to "export more". Not sure he wanted to export higher food prices to unstable developing nations though but we're definitely exporting our problems elsewhere. For the time being.

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  52. The sell off looks like it has run out of steam...

    Who knows where we go from here.

    Pretty pathetic selling, the Mid East is blowing up, Japan debt is down graded and the market barely sells off.

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  53. Someone (Dastro, I think) posted here the other day that people will take a lot of shit from the government but when you mess with their food that's when it all blows up. Maybe this is what's happening here?

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  54. Thor,

    Post anything you would like.

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  55. I want to see the army taking on the police. The revolution would be over in a second.

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  56. Denise - posted. Look at those people, all kneeling down in front of the water cannon. My heart breaks for them. Such a beautiful people, I hope this works out well for them when the dust finally settles :-(

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  57. New York Times has up to the min. reports.

    Just in -

    "In Alexandria, Pitched battle"

    "Egyptian fury has raged beneath the surface for decades".

    http://global.nytimes.com/

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  58. Thor,

    That is just awful and they are so courageous. I couldn't tell that they were kneeling until I clicked to make the photo bigger. (I need new glasses!)

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  59. I wonder what's Benjamin thinking?

    That's Dr. Bernanke!

    Did I cause a revolution in the Arab world? What the CIA couldn't!

    ICan

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  60. Egyptians’ Fury Has Smoldered Beneath the Surface for Decades

    Wow. The ruling class must be running away as fast as they can making sure that they have their Swiss bank account numbers memorized.

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  61. Troops are surrounding the British Museum - thank god. We don't want another Bagdad Museum

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  62. Hey, we might even get one of those end of day rallies right back up to even.

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  63. After the enormous volume spikes this morning the market has just consolidated sideways.

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  64. ZH has AL Jazeera link - if anyone interested.


    Saudis and the Iranians and the Chinese - Staying up all night? Or atleast telling someone to be on notice!

    ICan

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  65. Question is, should I cover? The chart tells me not to, so I won't.

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  66. Twitter has an Egypt page which seems to be updated frequently.

    Egypt

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  67. Wow - are we going to get a 200 point down day?

    Are there still folks around who think that world events don't have any effect on the stock market?

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  68. Crude and Ten Year have nice bull flags on the 60 min chart, gold has backed off from it's highs.

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  69. Will people want to hold over the weekend?

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  70. 1267.50 next stop ES, if we continue to break.

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  71. They are saying that the Army has replaced the police on the streets.

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  72. Definitely a lot of damage to the daily charts today. Vix bar is huge.

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  73. 2042: Jim, from the US writes: "I have a friend in Dearborn, home to one of the largest Muslim communities in North America. I've been told police are on alert for possible rioting this evening and this weekend. Local TV stations in Detroit, US have summoned-in off-duty news staff for possible coverage of rioting there." Have Your Say

    You guys in the Midwest hearing anything about this?

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  74. (puts on a small SPY short)
    (will probably get killed next week)

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  75. @Thor,

    It would not surprise me, but the cold weather has to put a damper on any protests.

    Large Muslim community in that area, not sure how many are from Egypt.

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  76. Denise - that's right the cold. Good thing I asked. Saw another blog post about the Cairo museum and worries about fires nearby. That museum sits in the middle of a park so not much danger from fire.

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  77. Thor,

    I am sure that any city that has a large concentration of Muslims will be on guard, but they would be damaging their own communities. Probably a show of solidarity more than a riot.

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  78. Funniest Tweet so far:

    Comparing the US media ridiculous coverage:

    "Remember this morning when MSNBC was covering Charlie Sheen's hernia?"

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  79. @Denise: 1267.50 next stop ES, if we continue to break

    Same here. 1265 could provide support. Then if that line doesn't hold, we may revisit the 1220/1230 zone.

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  80. Army Tanks surrounding the US and UK embassies in Cairo.

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  81. And good luck with your short Emmie. We'll cheer you from the sideline at least:p

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  82. Private jets in very short supply - the wealthy abandoning a sinking ship?

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  83. Oh and Manny's in the game also;) Hope we get a decent move down this time.

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  84. I am still short Russell 2000 and EEM.

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  85. 2127: US Senator John McCain releases a statement saying Mr Mubarak has been an important and valued friend of the US, but describes the response of the Egyptian government to the latest protests as "deeply troubling".

    Shut up already grandpa.

    2122: Egyptian TV cites parliamentary speaker as saying "an important matter will be announced in a short time".

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  86. No, we can blame Granpa McCain.

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  87. As an aside note that's why facebook is so valuable even though is just a silly place to put pictures.

    Is an instrument of organization, improving rapid responses tactically speaking.
    The interconnectedness grows exponentially, that's why the fall since 2007 was that fast leaving many people waiting for more downside, basically because it didn't fill the time requirements just 17 months instead of 3 or 4 years to drop.
    Dan

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  88. Yes Manny

    We live 7 meals away from revolution is a very powerfull fact.

    In my view there's two reasons for the so call revolutions.

    One is simply lack of food who accelerate people reactions because they don't have too much time before reaching the game over point.

    The second one is to just rewrite the law.
    This is more sophisticated and has the clear objective of guarantee private property for the new ruling class.
    Usually this second one comes hidden inside the first one, alone is not that common as to produce a revolution because the masses are not "sufficiently motivated" to act, because they know that most of the time are left outside of substantial benefits for them as a whole.So hunger lack of food is the spur.
    Dan

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  89. 2213: About that urgent message from the parliamentary speaker... Egypt is in the "safe hands" of President Hosni Mubarak, Fathi Sorour tells Egypt's state-owned Nile News channel. He says the parliament - overwhelmingly dominated by Mr Mubarak's ruling party - will meet on Sunday. Will that satisfy the protesters?


    That was about as expected . . . .

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  90. What was the lit in my opinion?

    There are several factors.
    The most important is the disregard when setting financial policy by the FED for human life.

    That's the main reason America as a whole is hated overseas.People put the nation in the same bag with the elites because they never have a chance to talk with a poor "yanquee" because they don't use to travel overseas.

    The complete disregard for humans (living in America and overseas) is the most clear example that elites don't have sense of belonging when push come to shove regarding national identity.

    Saving their asses forced them to create a monstruos amount of liquidity under the guise of saving the banks.

    Which is understandable banks has to be saved or closed but not let them fail because the lack of trust that creates render the whole financial system irrelevant.Everything collapses.

    But with the excuse of propping up banks gazillions were created and if the stock market had the nice run is harder to convince the main actors to just put money in equities.Then we have bubbles like now in commodities because is something that pays of pretty fast particularly about food and on the other hand governments around the world helping to bid up prices because they want a safety net of food as a way to prevent being set ablaze and kicked out.

    They can have Suiss accounts but if they are pushed out of the country they no longer have a say in how the laws are written in their countries and more importantly they can not control anymore the resources that exist inside the nation.
    Dan

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  91. Didn't cover although my short only up 6% on the day. Was up 10% at the best point. Chart still weak though. I may short more next week on any pops up as long as it doesn't break through resistance.

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  92. Mubarak dismissing ruling party, as of tomorrow.

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  93. Look at how much oil spiked today - 30% of the worlds oil passes through the Suez Canal.

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  94. After the Fed as a main factor you have the ruling class in that countries not easying up enough the grip on things as a way to compensate for the problems created by the FED/Wall Street.Because that would imply share a little of what they make on a regular basis.
    And the third element is one person that catch the zeitgeist in a dramatic way.

    This Tunisian man was unemployed got some produce to sell as a way to keep going for a while until things improved.

    That is something that a lot of guys can ralate to, they can easity understand what's going on for this person.Having turmoil in different parts of the world at the moment but with the exception of two guys killed the day before the flash crash still nothing very dramatic to catch the zeitgeist.

    And having lots of people that can feel identified with this guy fighting for survival you have that he hit the wall of a ruling class that enact laws as if nothing different is happening, using a policeman to confiscated or destroy his produce because doesn't have the proper decal in the cart or whatever (like nothing is different from 3-5 years ago, so you have to comply like always).

    If the guy punch or even kill the police could be demonized easily for not respecting the rules or law.

    What this 3rd element in the ecuation does is caught that zeitgeist because the guy took the most dramatic route posible.
    He gave up but with a twist, still respecting the law and what the authorities say is legal.He didn't go back to his house powerless or try to legally recover his property.
    He just destroy himself, accelerating what could happen to him in the near future withought food.

    Unemployed+trying to suvive+keep fighting+obeys what the law(police) says

    His only route if he alone was powerless to change the "world" was to destroyed himself.
    No mas.

    He put on stage what millions of others are secretly struggling with in a dramatic way.
    People (for preservation) started fighting that as the normal outcome.
    The fuse was already lit,and getting Ben Ali ousted just embolded them, so now they start believing that some change is possible.And the region watch and see that US government is not protecting all that tirants at least openly anymore.Will see Saudi Arabia.
    Dan

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  95. Great thoughts, Dan. I wonder if our ruling elite is paying heed? Probably not. They probably arrogantly think it's "different" here, and it is, for now, anyway.

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  96. Yes I agree with your view of course here is different. I don't think that is possible here that kind of turmoil.

    Foreclosures are very slow

    Interest rates very low so no more debt is being put on the consumers back (directly)

    A powerhouse producing food

    The three critical elements for stability here.

    Shelter+food+not "artificially" increasing debt
    Dan

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  97. BBC is another great link

    http://www.bbc.co.uk.news/

    El Baradei doused by a water Cannon. Say,"This is an indication of a barbaric regime".

    Plain clothes security police seen beating people. - NYT

    Should have been easier/better for Mubarak to bring in democratic reforms on slow and steady manner. HE HAD 30 YEARS TO DO IT. But chose to ignore, instead filled his and his cronies' bank accounts.

    Mubarak is not resigning, yet!

    ICan

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  98. ICan - these are the two live broadcasts I'm following. have been going back and forth between BBC and Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera is the better of the two so far. I hate to say it, but I don't trust our own news media in reporting on this crisis.

    http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

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  99. @Dastro: Not possible here NOW or likely any time soon, for sure, but nothing stays the same forever. That's my point.

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  100. Manny - I've thought about that a bit. I wonder how something like that would work in the US today. We're basically two countries really - very angry and unhappy people in Houston and Atlanta, might not translate to people in San Francisco or New York.

    Or maybe it would, who knows, If there's one thing we can be sure of, it's that we're in uncharted water for a lot of this stuff.

    I think we'll be looking back at these times the same way our grandparents looked back at the 30's and 40's.

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  101. Plus, if there's one thing 9/11 really taught us, it's that "it could never happen here" is no longer valid.

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  102. @Thor: We might end up fighting each other instead of the government. So fractured in the States in that way. Polarized.

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  103. Wow, F got absolutely sucker punched.

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  104. Benny had better get those presses fired up. QE3 coming soon?

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  105. @Jeff,

    "Benny had better get those presses fired up. QE3 coming soon".


    I hope NOT! Guess where that money would want to end up? In risk assets and MORE VIOLENCE in EMs!

    More food inflation!


    ICan

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  106. Agreed, I Can. Old Benny's really in a bind now, isn't he?

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  107. Big O speaking now . . . .careful careful, we're for Freedom remember.

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  108. I never thought dialup would become an instrument of liberty.



    Landline: Ahem...
    emmanuel117: I'm sorry, Landline.
    Landline: Thank you.

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  109. @Thor: Yeah, freedom to export our problems elsewhere.

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  110. Manny
    Agreed.Everything is possible but the litmus test here is the Depression.

    People living in miserable conditions and destitute and still no revolt, so the MSM are going to hammer day in and day out that if we complaint we are just Un-American pussies that we should follow the bravery and endurance of the greatest generation all this of course with a side dish fomenting the inner sense of shame when you compare with the conditions and the struggles (because of a crisis that nobody saw coming)of the valiant people in the 3rd world.

    Don't think that could not happen but the hunger and the level of cruelty from the ruling class has to be absolutely outrageous.Will see.
    Dan

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  111. "The U.S. need to break with Mubarak now!". Washington Post

    I wonder if that old goat will resign?

    Power is the greatest ahprodisiac!

    ICan

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  112. @Dastro: That's why I've said in the past on several occasions, no sacrifices by the Sheeple until our masters do it first. We know that won't happen so we could be waiting a while.

    On another topic, whatever happened to banksternation?

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  113. Anyway, have a good night everyone. I need a drink (or many). Back this weekend!

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  114. Emmie - Crazy isn't it? The internet has been a revolution in more than one way.

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  115. I wrote something similar few days ago about moderate Islam -

    "Pakistan is paying the price for Arabization".wwww.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/pakistan-is-paying-the-price-for-arabization/article1885495/

    And partly why people in Tunisia revolted -

    "The long shadow of Tunisia's corrupt regime". 2 page story.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/

    ICan

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  116. We haven't heard from Banksternation for a while, maybe he is lurking?

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  117. "Be careful what you wish for in Arab world". www.ft.com

    Opinion -Anthony Cordesman.

    Substituting one failed regime with another is not the answer. Why is it so hard to establish democracy there?. Most people were happy to see Sadam go, but the aftermath was ugly.

    ICan

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  118. @Denise4:30PM:I am still short Russell 2000 and EEM

    Well, now that you mention it, so am I in fact. That small FXP position didn't even come to mind. Probably because it would take the end of the world just to break even on that one...

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