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Friday, January 7, 2011

Eqypt Trip - Part Two

Hello!

First and foremost, thank you all so much for all the emails asking if we were ok, I'm so so sorry that we didn't get a chance to email sooner but as I said in my earlier email, we have literally been run ragged on this tour. I think our latest wake-up call has been 6:00am and our earliest was 1:45 the morning we left for Aswan.

Where to begin? I suppose at the beginning! We spent our first official day in Cairo touring a bit of the city with a very nice cab driver that the hotel helped us out with. Cairo is a very VERY big city. The first thing you notice when you get here are the constant noise of car horns. You might imagine that this could be very annoying, but this isn't a New York CIty "BEEEEEEEEEEEP! Hey you idiot, get out of my way" kind of horn honking, it's more of a "Beep beep! Hello my friend, I'm coming up behind you" It's very much like listening to a conversation. Another thing you notice right away is that there are no lanes, anywhere, nor have we seen very many traffic lights – according to our guide and various taxi drivers, they're optional!

You would imagine that the combination of 19 million people, no lanes, and no traffic lights, with people running and walking across traffic constantly would be chaos, and for the most part it is. Somehow though, like much of what we've seen in Egypt so far, the people of Cairo make it work! I've paid close attention to the condition of the cars, and although most of them are quite old and in need of repair, very few of them are dented. We also cannot get over how all of the pedestrians manage to weave their way though traffic without getting hit. I suppose I could look up traffic fatalities for Cairo, but I rather prefer the illusion that there are very few!

Whenever I come to a new city abroad for the first time I can't help but compare it to other places I've already been, it's not until I've spent a few days in a city that I can really get the unique feel of that particular city. With that being said, the very first impression of Cairo is what I would consider a mixture of Istanbul and Mexico City. It has the middle eastern feel of Istanbul, but the sheer size and sprawl of Mexico City. Now, of course, after having spent over a week in the country and four days in Cairo, - Cairo is . . . Well it's just Cairo. It's unlike anywhere I've ever been.

Before I get into more detail about what we've seen so far let me spend some time talking of the Egyptian people. To put it bluntly, if it were possible to fall in love with an entire population, we've done it. I have never, in all of my travels, met a more friendly, warm, open, helpful culture. All you have to do is glance in someone's direction, even in overpopulated Cairo, and you will receive a big sincere smile. I am always struck by how much HAPPIER people in other places seem to be than we are at home in the states. This, of course, is not to discount the grinding poverty that nearly everyone here must endure, but somehow, they not only do endure, but they find a way to look beyond their circumstances and maintain their happiness. It's such a contrast that it literally makes my heart ache that we, in the States, who have so very much, find a way, as a culture, to be so angry and unhappy about so many things. I suppose, when you get to the heart of it, that this is why I not only continue to travel, but am drawn more and more to places like Egypt. For all our wealth and success at home, it is as clear to me that these people still retain something that we have lost.

Now back to Cairo! As I was saying, we took a cab around our first day in town and went to an old Greek Orthodox Church. I have been struck by just how MANY churches there are here in Egypt. We hear differing numbers from different people, but it seems that the Christian population here is anywhere from twenty to thirty percent, comprised mostly of Egyptian Orthodox, Coptic, and Catholic. The churches are not small, and are all over the city. Most of them, like in parts of Mexico, have large neon crosses that light up at night. Various cab drivers and tour guides have told us that there are "no problems" in Egypt between the Christians and the Muslims. Although I know this to be only partly true, I can surmise, after having spent a little bit of time here, and spoken to many many people, that the problems that they do have here are the result of religious extremists. The vast majority of people really don't seem to care one way or another.

Most women here cover their heads, and we have seen a fair amount of women completely covered (all in black with just the eyes showing) but most of the women who do cover are wearing far more make-up than a "good girl" at home would. The most interesting thing about the religiousness of the Egyptian people that I have noticed is that you will occasionally come across men who have either very deep creases, or callouses on their foreheads from praying five times a day. I didn't see that in either Morocco or Turkey so will have to ask our guide whether or not this is a local thing, like maybe they smack their heads on the ground when they pray, or the rugs they pray on are rough.

We spent some time wandering around the grounds of the old Greek church, and then met our cab driver who took us to some shops so we could look at perfumes, papyrus, and gold. Perfume is a very big business here in Egypt, I did not know this before I came, but nearly ALL the base scents of popular perfumes at home come from here. They grow all of the flowers up near Aswan and crush out the oils and sell them to the big perfume houses in Paris and London . If you have a bottle of perfume or cologne at home, you can be sure that the base scent comes from flowers grown here in Egypt. What they sell here, are those base scents and they are strong. Just a few drops is all you need. Tim bought a gold scarab for his necklace, and I got a nice inlaid box, another popular item.

After our shopping expedition our driver drove us quickly through The city of The Dead, which is a cemetery filled with tombs that many families are now living in. Apparently the families who's relatives are buried in these tombs are ok with this arrangement because the families living inside the tombs maintain them for the family. I had heard about this place before we came here, but it wasn't quite what I was expecting. Much more third world grimy than ancient Egyptian. Another thing that I have learned on this trip, and would explain the disconnect between my expectations of the tombs and reality, is that Cairo is not at all an old city by Egyptian standards. It was founded in the early Muslim era (800's) and spent most of it's existence as a very small village along the Nile. As recently as 1800 there were fewer than 150,000 people in all of Cairo. So unlike Istanbul, Rome, or Alexandria, you don't really see very many super old things driving around Cairo.

I think I'll end this entry for now – we went to the Halili Market toward the end of our tour of Cairo, but we went back there last night with our group and I'll have far more interesting stories to tell about that when I catch up!

We are now on a bus ride from Cairo to Alexandria where we will spend two days. It's New Years Eve and I'm not positive what our plans are for tonight. We will be returning to Cairo on the bus though so I should have enough time to type up the rest of our trip.

John & Tim

67 comments:

  1. Thanks for taking the time to compose and email your trip experiences with us, Thor.

    Can't wait for the pictures.

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  2. Thor
    Thank you I really like to hear how other peoples or cultures live.Is very insightful pay attention to that small details like not "regimented" traffic and you didn't mention to be stack in traffic 3 hours so looks like they can manage it.Didn't know that was an accident where you where, hope that wasn't too bad.Welcome back.

    Rock
    Yes they provide liquidity as long as it's irrelevant when is necessary they disappear, they take care of their businesses but not provide a service that they are paid for.Nice post.

    I'm studying the S&P like crazy trying to advance in that area of research.

    At this point even though yesterday made a top and looks good the chance to go down (in a chart), I'm growing more skeptical if between 8:30 and 11:30 am today can not break decisively downward the 1270 mark.

    If during the morning don't break down means probably another chance to correct that goes wasted.Remaining Jan 12 like the last one (though weaker than yesterday and today) till the last week of the month. Good luck everybody.
    Dan

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  3. Hey, Thor, great experience. I envy you. I am reading every word.

    So much happened yesterday's blog after I went to sleep, that I'm so sorry, I just have to bring it back up. Sorry. No responds are necessary, I just want to put in $.02 S$.

    From Mannwich: "The Fed's actions aren't designed to aid any of the little people.

    Exactly Denise! We get to deal with "free markets" as the little people, actually worse than that, since it's even tougher to compete with big powerful corporations who collude against our interests with big powerful politicians."

    This, Mannwich, is exactly our advantage. We don't have to be right. We don't have to make the market. All we have to do is follow the leaders, trade on their BullSxxt, and make more money than those who want to be contrary. Let the contrarians have their say, let their followers be many. That just means more for us who follow the leaders.

    Let the bears try this market. Let them put all their money in my pocket.

    So let the economy dictate low interest rates, and screw the savers. I refinanced last year and got a 4.35% interest rate (high, because I don't live in any). (Before that, my houses were fully paid off, but I looked at the money and said, Rock, you're stoopid). I took that money, and it looks like in my trading accounts, it was a 37% year. In my ex-mother-in-law's account, it looks like a 44% year. Thats done by following the leaders. (She came for Christmas. She was very very nice to me.)

    (OK, Mutt, go ahead and ask why I can't do as good as my ex-mother-in-law, when I trade for both of us).


    Dss said:
    "Of course the Fed controls and influences the markets, they do so through interest rates, margin requirements, capital requirements, etc. and now they have expanded their role even further." Yes, I commented a very long time ago that the Fed owners will control the world, and they determine where the markets go. I forget now who, but somebody argued with me, and I think they don't participate here any longer. But please be sure, the FED will control the financial world, and that's world-wide. The "people" don't set the market, but the psychology applied to them does influence the speed at which the market changes happen.
    Mutt said: "Of course the Fed controls and influences the markets, they do so through interest rates, margin requirements, capital requirements, etc. and now they have expanded their role even further." Yes, but it won't happen in my lifetime, so in the meantime, get over the fear of investing, look for higher lows, and get in. As Dss said, and I support in spades, "You know the dynamic, free markets for us, socialism for TBTF entities. Come on, get with the program!". Mutt, start making money! The old fashioned way......"get with the program!"

    ICan observed about inflation. Last month, I bought a bottle of Heinz ketchup for $1. I just bought one today for $1.30. Neither was on sale, that's just the regular price. Um, let's see, is that 30% inflation?

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  4. @Dastro:

    Yes. My friend explained how the flash crash could have happened, and the one scenario I understood was exactly what you said. Normally, you would think that you would move orders logically downward, following the down-trend. For the flash crash to happen, the orders would have been removed from the bottom-up. Then at the bottom, buy market orders would have been placed.

    I never heard or read any articles that detailed which trades were reversed. That would be fascinating.

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  5. @Thor

    Just, FYI, Dr. Dobbs sent me the yearly IT salary survey, link at

    http://informationweek.2011ITSalarySurvey.sgizmo.com?iwid=dd

    I like to review the results, but the problem is informationweak sends tons of junkmail. Just FYI

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  6. Fascinating post, Thor. We travel a fair amount but not anywhere near as much internationally as we'd like. Too many family spread around the country to see each year. It's an either/or proposition every year. This year we'll probably keep our trips relegated to the States but if things are OK in '12, I think the "plan" is to go somewhere overseas.

    Good thoughts, Rock. I totally agree. What's interesting is how much money I've "saved" (and made) since I stopped visiting certain blogs that shall not be named. Lesson learned there. ;-)

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  7. Reactionary- Not pro-active!

    "Are Speculators Adding to World Hunger". http;//www.cnbc.com/id40958201


    "The latest big trade to profit from is agriculture..There are now more speculative postiions than in 2008. We now have highest speculative positions in history....Commisssioner Chilton expects to push again next Thursday for his agency to vote to limit speculative positions to 10 percent...And it's not just swaps and futures for agriculture, but energy and metals as well".


    ICan

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  8. But how do you stop speculators in other countries? ie There were stories of tankers full of oil docked at ports all over the world in summer of 2009. Those, we could see. How hid sugar last year? There is no free market in commodities. In India, it seems like one commodity after another.

    ICan

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  9. Good one from PK today. What miracle in Texas? The miracle is that large numbers of people continue to believe this shit time and time again. Mass delusion and willful ignorance abounds.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/07/opinion/07krugman.html?hp

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  10. Might we get an actual significant down day today? Feels different.

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  11. @I Can,

    Sure, there is a free market in commodities, i.e., they are free to hide their tankers anywhere they want!

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  12. GS year end target for S&P 500 - 1500 marketwatch.com

    Their last year, 2010 target - 1250, so that call turned out ok.

    BB not so enthusiastic on the U.S. future employement prospects.

    ICan

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  13. @Manny,

    Sure, the Dow is off all of 46 points. The structure is similar to yesterday up to this point so we'll see if we go up, down or sideways from here. A retracement of the mornings decline is inevitable, but it is hard to say where the market is going from here. Too close to the top.

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  14. @I Can: Read that Atlantic article that I posted yesterday about the new global elite and you'll begin to understand that collectively, despite the seeming ego-driven "concern" for philanthropy (via back-tie dinners where they can boast even more of their generosity to the little people), these sociopaths couldn't care less about how they're actions affect everyone else. In fact, it's OUR fault if we can't keep up.

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  15. Wating For THIS pullbackJanuary 7, 2011 at 12:32 PM

    Rock - I very much appreciate your words of encouragement and believe it or not after reading your HFT post and a couple other good articles, came to the same conclusion. The only thing I have been waiting for is THIS pull back (It’s almost a half percent – so it’s a big one)

    I will probably wait until about 11am (PDT) to get in, my only concern at this point is what the weekend will bring, but I realize now until this is over there is no reason to fight against the flow.

    Again I thank you for your encouragement and will be working toward making money instead of sitting on the side.

    And as for why you are making more money for your Ex_M-I-L, I already know the answer to that. It’s cuz she is your Ex Mother In Law.

    Mangy Mutt

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  16. Or if this correction continues to break support I will wait to see what Monday brings be for getting in.

    This can not be a REAL correction...Can it?

    Mutt

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  17. @Manny, 10:05

    Some sites are very useful contrary indicators. i.e., the world has been coming to an end on ZH for more than two years now, the bull market is just shy of two years old (and many stocks bottomed months before the March lows) and still they won't give it up. 86% increase in the S&P while they short every rally. How many people on TBP keep ridiculing BR's performance? Too funny.

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  18. @Mutt,

    And probably the grandmother to his children. Nice going there, Rock.

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  19. Dare I say that we might have a trend day down today?

    Here are some of the signs that I see:

    Ticks barely above zero.
    AD Line negative and staying down.
    Trin high and going higher.
    The low of the day was taken out with ease.
    The lows of 1/5 have been taken out.

    Disclaimer: I am short from 126.74 SPY.

    What spoils the party?

    Rally back above 127.00
    Large volume bar on the 5 minute chart.

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  20. We are approaching the lows of 1/4/11 of 126.19.

    Not a long way to the big round number of 126.00 so a rally could develop from either number.

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  21. File this under good news and bad news. The bad news is that they finally raised state income taxes, the good news is that the state can now start paying it's bills. Unfortunately, our state tax is regressive.

    Quinn, Illinois law makers push 75% state income tax increase.

    Plus a $1.00 a pack cigarette tax increase.

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  22. As a measure of how desperate state government's finances are, Cullerton said the state would use the income-tax hike to borrow $12.2 billion. Of that, $8.5 billion would pay overdue bills and $3.7 billion would cover a government worker pension payment lawmakers skipped when putting together the current budget, he said.

    "I think it's the right time to do it because we are in desperate need of paying our bills," Cullerton said. "Just think about how we're going to be after we pass this. We would have all our bills, all those people that are owed money, $8 billion would go back into the economy. People will be paid on time. Our credit rating will be dramatically improved."

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  23. Plus a raise in the corporate income taxes.

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  24. Illinois house has voted to repeal the death penalty law. Too many folks on death row were exonerated through DNA.

    Illinois House votes to abolish death penalty

    "The capital punishment ban still has some hurdles to clear. But the vote represented a growing recognition that DNA and improved technology in criminal science have exposed an uncertainty in verdicts that cannot be reversed once a death sentence is carried out.

    "You can release an innocent person from prison, but you can't release them from the grave," said Gordon "Randy" Steidl, who spent 17 years in prison, including 12 on death row, after he was wrongfully convicted of a 1986 double-murder."

    The moratorium on the death penalty was one of the few things that Ryan did right in Illinois.

    Let's hope it passes the senate.

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  25. Denise (12:42) - Rock is being good to his ex mother in law because of the kids, well that makes sense and here I thought it was because she made yummy cookies.

    But if I had to choose between the kids and cookies, that would be a tough choice.

    :)

    Mutt

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  26. @Denise: What kills me is that the gov't bailouts have actually helped the wealthy recover the most and by far, and yet so many in that group refuse to sacrifice even ONE thing to help turn things around for the country as a whole. Instead, they COMPLAIN about Obama being "anti-business", blah, blah, blah, when HIS actions have actually helped them FAR more everyone else. It's mind boggling greed and selfishness on a breathtaking scale if you ask me.

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  27. @Mutt:

    You might take a look at my favorite short, X, on a higher low after the pullback. Wait for the W!!

    I think X fell in sympathy with SCHN who disappointed. But it is a tell for future revenue reports for the steels.

    As it gets close to reporting time for X, I think I'll try my short again.

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  28. This pullback so far is small and not very convincing. We could end up like yesterday and just go sideways for the rest of the day. Any serious sell off this afternoon would obviously signal something more, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

    Many of the more important internal statistics have deteriorated in the past few months, but tops take a long time to form and divergences can last for many months before a final breakdown.

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  29. Taibbi's back:

    Matt Taibbi: The Crying Shame of John Boehner
    He's a lazy, double-talking shill for corporate interests. So how's he going to fare with the Tea Party?

    This is going to be fun to watch and horrifying at the same time.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/matt-taibbi-the-crying-shame-of-john-boehner-20110105?print=true

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  30. Alcoa reports Monday.


    ICan

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  31. Man with golden voice, or radio voice - a good little story.


    ICan

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  32. Article is an instant classic. I LOVE this passage:

    Of all the longtime Republican Beltway hacks who are now scrambling to find ways to throw enough sunshine on the Tea Party mob to keep their jobs, Boehner has been the most hilariously transparent. In yet another scene straight out of a screwball comedy — maybe it was an early hommage to the now-departed Leslie Nielsen — Boehner in November 2009 stood up in front of a crowd of Tea Partiers who had gathered to protest the upcoming Obamacare vote, and tried to stroke his audience by holding up a copy of the Constitution. Professing his love for the sacred document, Boehner pledged to "stand here with our Founding Fathers, who wrote in the preamble: 'We hold these truths to be self-evident.'" The crowd was silent. Boehner had confused the Constitution with the Declaration of Independence.

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  33. More:

    Things are different now. America is so broke, there's no longer really any money in the Treasury to give away — the job of overseeing corporate handouts that used to belong to the leaders of Congress has now moved to the Federal Reserve, which itself is so broke that it has to invent dollars out of thin air before it can give them away to influential billionaires. This leaves congressional leaders with nothing to do but their ostensible jobs — i.e., fixing the country's actual problems — and few of the current leaders have any experience with that, Boehner being a prime example. The new speaker represents an increasingly endangered class of Beltway jobholders who know how to raise money and get elected, but not much beyond that. He now finds himself the party's last line of defense against millions of angry voters who, for the first time in recent memory, are at least attempting to watch what Congress is up to. The tee times are over.

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  34. Great article, spot on. But the fact remains that he is the Speaker. Sickening.

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  35. And disgraceful. Embarrasing for our country. How low can we go?

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  36. Manny said:What's interesting is how much money I've "saved" (and made) since I stopped visiting certain blogs that shall not be named.

    My feeling also. While the original blog was a good place to learn stuff about finance/economics (as is this current place), and while I loved the sense of humor there, it was a dangerous environment for your trade decisions.

    We have a more balanced place here,people with sometimes differing opinions as to where we're headed short term.

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  37. @Manny,

    The one thing since becoming an adult that has both surprised and not surprised me was how low our country could go.

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  38. Meanwhile, a new high food stamp usage:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/food-stamp-usage-hits-new-high-432-million

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  39. BTW, I'm not sure I understand the commenter at the end of previous thread. He's suggesting that this blog is a "fortress of knotted collusion".

    Certainly not true if it's aimed at the trading stuff. Now maybe he was talking about the US political stuff, which you lads discuss a lot here.

    In that case, I can't really judge:not knowledgeable, nor very interested by politics, be it US or France. I kind of collude with myself to reject any form of politics. That's based on the premise that we're only given the choice between a predefined set of puppets.

    The people who really govern actually get elected by the size of their bank account.

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  40. @Wolfie,

    These blogs should never be a substitute for good old fashioned hard work. But sometimes the group think can be hard to overcome because the one who voices a contrary opinion is ridiculed, heckled and embarrassed, while from the group that has been short and wrong all you hear is crickets.

    There is very little critical thinking when a group think mentality takes over; it feels better and comfortable to be wrong within your group than to be right and alone. The bullying mentality feels good when the jackals that surround the bullies egg them on. i.e., the message boards at ZH.

    Look at all of the abuse that has been heaped upon BR for his company's successes.

    I have said many times, do your own research, figure out what works and what doesn't work as then you will have an understanding you would not have if you simply copied the wrong way Corrigans of this world.

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  41. Nice beach ball call, Manny!

    Not an exact replica of yesterday but pretty close. The daily chart pattern will show today as a down bar, a slight pullback from the new cycle highs of yesterday.

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  42. "No charges against Canadians who parked funds in tax havens". www.financialpost.com

    "More than three years after the Canadian Revenue Agency first learned the names of 106 Canadians with bank accounts in the offshore tax haven of Liechtenstein, nobody has been prosecuted and nobody has been fined".

    ICan

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  43. re dss:sure thing. Do your homework. Though I believe a too much exposition to a utter bearish place ends up influencing your trade decisions to some degree.

    Wait... is that the sound of a lurker I just heard? Bring in the fun friend. :p

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  44. "Kaptur and her staff were mystified as to why Boehner would back a nutjob in an SS costume, especially when Kaptur was so far ahead in the polls. They could come up with only two explanations, both humorously nauseating. One was that it was a personal thing to tweak Kaptur, who had recently held a press conference criticizing a Boehner proposal to raise the Social Security retirement age to 70. The other was that Boehner was milking the moronic Iott, the wealthy heir to a supermarket chain, for future campaign contributions."

    Another great reason why the estate tax should never be repealed. Money like that in the hands of lunatics like Iott can undermine this whole country. It is bad enough we have guys like Koch funding the Tea Party but at least he doesn't run around in a Nazi uniform, at least not in public.

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  45. @Denise: 3:36 p.m. Spot on. Couldn't have said it better myself. Ofentimes it are the lonely voices that are being bullied who are the ones that end up being right.

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  46. @Wolfie,

    That is why I am all about the numbers. Cold hard indisputable facts trump group think uber bullish or bearishness any day.

    Like tuning into CNBC and you would think that the Dow was still at 15k and the world is a wonderful place, or ZH and you need to be put on suicide watch after reading.

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  47. When was the last time we had a really big down day, at least 1.5-2% or more? I honestly can't remember. Has it been at least a month or more?

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  48. @Denise: Bifurcated recovery and economy. A few of us called that one a while back, as early as '09. Seems like it's playing out to me and seems like those millions who aren't working don't matter to the this "recovery" as long as they stay silent, watch TV and use their food stamps.

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  49. CR weighs in and is not impressed with this jobs report:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/employment-declining-participation-rate.html

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  50. @Manny,

    The worst situation that a trader or investor must look out for is being influenced by people who use terrible economic fundamentals to justify everything from predicting the stock market's collapse to toe nail fungus.

    The debt is too large, we're all going to die! Short, no, triple short the financials!

    Insert your own bad fundamental, rinse and repeat.

    As a strict technician, I pretty much ignore all of the news. And if someone I respect makes a forecast I try to see if the internals confirm their forecast. Analysis 95%, trading 5%.

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  51. 11/16 down 1.62% S&P
    11/12 down 1.18%
    10/19 down 1.59%

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  52. August 11 -2.82%
    July 16 -2.88%

    Those were the largest down days since the July bottom.

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  53. Great points, Denise. Words to live by when trading. Not easy to do all the time though.

    Wow, that was nearly two months ago. Quite an epic run by this market. What will be the trigger for a pullback? Will there even be one in the short term?

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  54. @Manny,

    I think that will be the biggest underlying story of the next decade. The haves will have recovered nicely, the have nots will still be struggling. Plus all of those folks who quit looking for work aren't even included in the numbers.

    Many of the older boomers who were laid off will never have meaningful employment again as their health insurance costs are too high. Much cheaper to hire the young kid.

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  55. Benny expects "moderately stronger recovery" this year. Probably right, I'm guessing. Staying with my call that '12 is the year to be worried about. This thing will drag on far longer than most people think (or had thought).

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/08/business/economy/08fed.html?hp

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  56. @Manny,

    As I have said before, tops take a long time to form. Sometimes years. We are still going up.

    The top in 2007 took one year to form. Not that I am suggesting that we are repeating 2007 onward.

    One of the stats that I follow is the new highs.

    In 2006 the NYSE 12/5/06 had 585 new highs.
    10/11/07, very close to the numeric top there were only 383 new highs. Distribution was taking place for an entire year as stock after stock failed to make a new high.

    In this market 4/26/10 there were 674 new highs, which is very impressive and shows a great deal of underlying strength, but as the S&P goes higher there have been fewer new highs:

    11/4/10 569
    12/7/10 431
    1/3/11 375

    Which clearly shows distribution and that fewer stocks are participating in this rally.

    When a market is making new highs and there are fresh new highs in individual issues this is a healthy market and one should stay invested.

    When the market starts showing signs of deterioration and distribution, then I would be much more cautious.

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  57. Denise (3:26) - "since becoming an adult" Good thing I am not one of those...

    (3:36) Good words and good insite, I agree. I have never been afraid or worried of stepping into diverse situations nor stating my opinion as it is good to understand how other people see things. What I may be missing could be common knowledge to someone else.

    However I has expereineced times when group think takes over and have seen people lock horns over the simpest of idology and which point communication quickly break down into where people have an, if you are not for us you are against us mentality.

    Oh well I guess that is the way life goes and another reason I never want to become an adult.

    Mangy Mutt

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  58. The S&P has gone up 66 points yet 299 NYSE stocks are not participating.

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  59. @Mutt,

    What I look for is a coherent rational behind their methodology and thought processes. Which is why I love to read our very own Rock and Dan's, plus AmenRa's, Leftback, when they posted here, analysis on trading. I still read Andy's stuff from time to time. Plus a host of others like Corey from Afraid to Trade. Rational viewpoints. Not that I always agree with the viewpoints but so interesting none the less.

    After a time it is not difficult to figure out who knows their stuff and who doesn't.

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  60. @Mutt,

    thankfully, someone isn't an adult these days!

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  61. The Rock @ January 7, 2011 7:55 AM

    Excellent post, sir. You had the I totally rocking, until the Fed control part.

    To the I:

    No one controls the market.

    The market just is what it is.

    Are the Fed, the NY Bank Cartel, the EUR Bank Cartel (same folks, really, I suppose,) other FCB's, anyone with a shit pile of money to throw around in the financial markets and exchange currencies across the globe 24/7... are ANY of those folks, in control?

    I would argue that judging by how many of them have made significant blunders in said markets over time (time... the kicker,) it would appear that if anything, they are just as clueless as anyone else. They just have more money at stake, and have to carefully contrive how they navigate. No control, no conspiracy, just an innate and highly crafted desire (addiction, really,) to making money. And they will do whatever it takes to continue making money, at anyones expense. We're seeing it now in the ags...

    Now, back to your first thought... which is so insightful, we dont have to worry about any of that. We cant control a thing anymore than they can... just trade and let the rest be.

    The charts do not lie. They dont conceal. The Fed crew has the same charts that we do. Our job as traders is to read them better and faster than they do, and make them pay us.

    Tough game to do well. Best to stay small.

    I just really dug your comment.

    1L All,

    I-Man

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  62. Good to hear from you, I-Man.

    Rock rocks!

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  63. Thanks for stopping by and weighing in, I.

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  64. I-Man, Does it smell like updog in here?

    This is where you say; What's Updog

    To which I reply "Nothing, waz up with you dawg?"

    Plug in the soud of Crickets *Chirp...Chirp*

    Ok it wasn't a funny joke when we were in Jr High, I guess it is still not funny...

    I was going to argue your "No one controls the market."

    Until I read your opening question "are ANY of those folks, in control?"

    Um no they are not, they are only influenced by the reactions of the Fed and all the Fed can do is influence their actions they can not make them do anything.

    With that being said, I do believe the Fed's influence the market, just as other with BIG $$$ do.

    Good point - And be cheering for my StinkHawks tomorrow.

    Sup Dog.

    Mangy Mutt

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  65. Home at last! Will post some pics for the weekend when I wake up in the morning.

    Most exhausting trip ever.

    Hey I-man!

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