Let's continue with our 2011 S&P Predictions. Manny got us started last Monday so we can continue to collect predictions.
Manny Monday's 2011 Market Predictions
So far we have:
Manny
DOW
Low - 10,235
High - 12,310
Year-end - 11,745
S&P
Low - 1,095
High - 1,358
Year-end - 1,289
Nasdaq
Low - 2,415
High - 2,928
Year-end - 2,795
Emmanuel
S&P
Low 1120
High 1302
Close 1202
Nasdaq
Low 2090
High 2300
Close 2120
Dow
Low 10500
High 12400
Close 11200
Wolfstreet
SP500
Low 1060
High 1330
Close 1120
Dastro (Dan)
High 1500
Low 1000
dss
S&P
High 1375
Low 950
Also add any thoughts on how economic events will play out in 2011 in the comments.
We will be compiling the predictions all this week so that everyone who wants to can participate.
Happy Trading in 2011!
Results of the 2010 S&P predictions:
New Rankings:
High Low Abs. diff
lovethegoldtrend 1340 990 98
qqqqtrader 1298 946 100
Emmanuel117 1220 920 132
Thor 1400 1000 148
Matthew 1170 950 152
Todd 1200 900 172
HopeImWrong 1240 840 192
cv 1235 840 197
dss 1200 875 197
Harry Wanger 1200 870 202
Mannwich 1165 895 212
Dastro 1492 973 267
Colin 1250 750 272
Squid Eater 1202 790 280
72bat 1188 770 314
McFearless 1158 764 350
DL 1175 743 354
Wes 1222 666 384
AmenRa 1190 690 392
bergsten 1250 625 397
I-Man 1078 777 417
Wershovenist Pig 1100 750 422
Andy T 1050 760 462
leftback 1188 550 534
Patrick 1200 500 572
Dave Theory 1188 503 581
TexasRadio 1080 600 592
mcHappy 1080 550 642
KC 1100 480 692
Onlooker 1000 560 712
Average 1175 743 354
Actual 1262 1010
Congratulations to "lovethegoldtrend" where ever he might be. Honorable mentions to qqqtrader, Emmanual117 and Thor.
From the previous thread
ReplyDeleteDastro said...
Sorry Denise
When I saw your numbers I have to seat with a paper bag in my mouth and then laying in the dark with a cold compress in my forehead,then I realize that Steve put the absolute difference regarding the s&p low and s&p high as the final performance of each participant.
You put in the third column just the difference between a participants low and high but didn't compare to the s&p.
-------------------------------
"dss said...
We also need to add:
Wes 1222 666 (556)
Thor 1400 1000 (400)
Dastro 1492 973 (519)
Harry Wanger 1200 870 (330)
DL 1175 743 (432)
If we missed anyone else please let us know."
---------------------------------------------
Take Thor as an example with his round numbers 1000-1400.
s&p low 1010
s&p high 1262
So the absolute difference is:
10 points on the bottom 1010-1000=10
138 points on the top 1400-1262=138
And the third column result
10+138=148
So in this case Thor is in the 4th spot not bad ha!.
Please correct it for posterity, or ask Steve.(We have a reputation to protect you know).
Dan
Thanks, Dan. Here are the corrected numbers:
ReplyDeleteWes 1222 666 384
Thor 1400 1000 148
Dastro 1492 973 267
DL 1175 743 354
Math makes my head hurt.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone made a prediction that was not included please let us know.
ReplyDeleteThank you Denise.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if Harry Wanger made a prediction in the former blog or not.
Well we have a winner.Congratulations Lovethegoldtrend.We should start thinkinng about the prize, a bar of gold a burger a guided tour to the FED ?...
Dan
Shoot! I didn't get HW into the lists. Let me fix them again.
ReplyDeleteHe made a prediction that was in the comments.
I am just one error filled mess today.
ReplyDeleteHow India Avoided the Crisis
ReplyDeleteNo country nor system is perfect; certainly not India's. But this is an interesting view on how regulation actually works - and that human greed left to itself (to be it's own watchdog no less), will lead to bad outcomes. Contrary to dogma that has washed over the American psyche the past few decades - ironically those countries with the greatest lack of regulation are those being pole axed the hardest. Just coincidence I am sure. Both extremes (little regulation or massive regulation) generally lead to bad outcomes; certainly there must be happy mediums.
Great, great article. So much common sense and they aren't afraid to call out those policies responsible for the West's crisis which was totally avoidable.
ReplyDelete@dss,
ReplyDeleteYou know who "lovethegoldtrend" is(was)? That is/was Steve from Winnipeg!
I wonder if it's the same Steve who found the old list. If so, Steve that was a good call. Congrats. Your gold call was perfect too.
ICan
A peak int our future? Or is the future here now?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/02/world/europe/02youth.html?hp
Here is the money quote from that article and could easily be applied to the U.S. if older people, namely Boomers, continue to care more about its own interests during the twilight of their lives above that of younger generations, and their own offspring in many cases. Is this the real "entitlement" class and why don't they want young people to have the same opportunities they had when they were young?
ReplyDeleteGiuliano Amato, an economist and former Italian prime minister, was even more blunt. “By now, only a few people refuse to understand that youth protests aren’t a protest against the university reform, but against a general situation in which the older generations have eaten the future of the younger ones,” he recently told Corriere della Sera, Italy’s largest newspaper.
Thanks, I Can.
ReplyDeleteDo we have that gold call somewhere?
Congrats to steve and/or "lovethegoldtrend". It was a really great call.
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteI read that article and it does seem that all over the world young people are getting the shaft. Don't know how any of the countries change the dynamics.
Yep, Denise. Young, increasing irritated, disillusioned, even angry, unemployed and underemployed (often with huge student debt obligations) is a toxic brew that will likely spill over at some point if not sufficiently addressed.
ReplyDeleteGood one by Nick Kristoff at the Times:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/02/opinion/02kristof.html?src=me&ref=homepage
I-Can
ReplyDeleteIf I'm not mistaken Steve, Lovethegoldtrend and Mc Happy who posts on the other blog are the same winner.
Dan
@Dan,
ReplyDeleteNo, McHappy is from Eastern Canada - Newfie(?) I think.
ICan
Ah, I'm not up to date lately, sorry.
ReplyDeleteDan
Of course I'm more concerned with my own self interests and survival. Why should I be held to a different standard than any other person?
ReplyDeleteSometimes it's in one's best "self interests" for survival to see the big picture and respond accordingly. For a group that's already lived the bulk of their lives to feel so entitled to basicaly devour our young with such an uber-focus on their own "self interests" at the expense of our younger generations is a tad shortsighted if you ask me.
ReplyDeleteSo, what would you suggest Mr. Mannwich?
ReplyDeleteShould we start euthanizing Baby Boomers, seize their assets, and then redistribute the wealth to the younger generation?
No, of course not, but like everyone else, the wealthier among that group should be asked to sacrifice something like the rest of us for the good of the country. I'll just leave it at that. Certainly reducing or eliminating estate taxes doesn't strike me as a sacrifice for the greater good. The rest of us are going to be austeritized one way or another so why not the wealthiest seniors among us as well? True shared sacrifice among everyone is all I'm proposing. Is that being naive?
ReplyDeleteOr, should the government force me to retire early in order to open up jobs for "younger" people?
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteThe conundrum is that those younger people are the children of the baby boomers. Speak for yourself if you think that I as a baby boomer feel as if I have lived the bulk of my life.
And I take issue with the statement of "devouring" our young when if not for the baby boomers supporting their children in many ways they would have a much more difficult life, just as our parents supported us. Many times it is the opposite of what you say, the young devour their parents as the parents struggle to feed, clothe and educate them. As a matter of fact many boomers are now supporting three generations, their parents, themselves and their children.
So I do not think that your characterization is accurate or fair.
The wealthy among all groups needs to sacrifice more; there are a hell of a lot of younger folks that have done pretty well for themselves and I have seen many boomers sacrifice everything for their kids to get ahead.
Plus the youngest boomers are just now turning 47, hardly old enough to go crawl into their graves or retire so that younger people can move up.
ReplyDeleteDss:
ReplyDeleteExactly. Family members tend to take care of their own, in the best ways they see fit, first and foremost. That's what comes naturally. For any anyone else to "force" some alternate outcome would feel unnatural.
Well stated.
Fair enough, Denise. I don't necessarily disagree with any of that.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Manny.
ReplyDeleteI was out of the country for this - but, here's my prediction for 2011.
ReplyDeleteHigh = 1600 Low = 1250