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Thursday, April 21, 2011

Thorsday Open Thread

With a song . . .  A dedication of sorts. Can you guess for who?






111 comments:

  1. I think there's something to this new generation.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AfCV284pys&feature=player_embedded#at=66

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  2. the queen is the tell - they must have endorsed this at least though, and certainly not asked to have it pulled.

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  3. This is worth reading.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-napoli/oh-please-there-is-no-con_b_851748.html

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  4. @Thor

    After you said you were going to throw up an open thread, I was afraid to open today's blog for fear of barf on my keyboard....

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  5. Thor,

    That video is so funny! And an antidote to the boring spectacle about to commence. I bet they are passing that video around the palace and everyone will be thinking of it on the big day.

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  6. @MAnnwich:

    From yesterday, Farkas is complicit in the 4th largest bank failure in history. The DOJ is getting those guys in the bank as well.

    The way this stuff works is the DOJ goes after somebody bad, and starts investigating the people around him. They roll, in order to not do time. Pretty soon, enough of them roll and you get the guys like RajRajaRajRaj. When he's convicted, lots of people who think they were protected suddenly feel quite naked. They can't sleep at night. Every time the phone rings, they jump.

    Then, at 3:00AM, the FBI shows up at their door, wanting to ask questions. You'd be surprised how fast most of them pee their pants and just want to get out of jailtime.

    Remember the good things about jail are you get 3 squares a day, and all the sex you want.

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  7. Great one, geg. LOL.

    Fair point, Rock. However, perhaps my standards are too high, as I'm looking for a big name or names from one or more of the TBTF's, in the very least the jackals over at Lehman and/or Bear. Perhaps we'll see Lloyd and others behind bars at some point, but I wouldn't count on it. The O man has too much invested in these folks now to turn back.

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  8. Happy Easter everyone!



    DXY above 74. Can risk assets and $ move in the same direction?


    ICan

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  9. Whoa, what can explain this big miss?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/philadelphia-fed-massive-miss-comes-185-expectations-369-downward-q2-gdp-revisions-can-now-c

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  10. Manny,

    I need to read analysis about the Philly Fed numbers from somewhere else than ZH. Their hyperbole can be unnerving as they exaggerate every thing into the coming apocalypse.

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  11. If QE2 is ending in June, rates expected to rise, then why DXY still going down - last night broke through 74 level.


    ICan

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  12. Agreed Denise. I'm merely talking about the number, not the analysis. Would be interesting to get a different viewpoing on why it could have missed so badly.

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  13. Maybe CR will have an analysis on it? They're usually very levelheaded.

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  14. You know that the WSJ is going to the dogs when they have not one, not two, but three articles about the Royal Wedding on the front page.

    No Philly Fed that I could see. But I will keep looking.

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  15. On cue, from CR, the anti-ZH:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/philly-fed-survey-shows-slower.html

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  16. Manny,

    Not a criticism of your source! Just trying to find the least biased explanation.

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  17. No worries at all, Denise. I'm also VERY skeptical of ZH's analyses. And with good reason. They've been wrong a lot.

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  18. Nothing that I could find at the WSJ.

    But at CR they had this:

    Koch Industries Tells It's 50,000 Workers How To Vote

    Shades of WalMart!

    But a story in The Nation, “Big Brothers: Thought Control at Koch,” by Mark Ames and Mike Elk points to a second channel of influence: major employers pressuring their staff to vote for the company’s pet candidates. Never mind that most workers live in an employment at will regime, so the business has no loyalty to the troops, or that business and wage slave interests are seldom aligned. As the Nation piece depicts, employees of Koch entities like Georgia Pacific are repeatedly told who they should vote for. This is new: before Citizens United, companies could only proselytize its officers and shareholders.

    Consider what passes the smell test now:

    The election packet starts with a letter from Robertson dated October 4, 2010. It read: “As Koch company employees, we have a lot at stake in the upcoming election. Each of us is likely to be affected by the outcome on Nov. 2. That is why, for the first time ever, we are mailing our newest edition of Discovery and several other helpful items to the home address of every U.S. employee” [emphasis added].

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  19. Manny,

    They just put that apocalypse spin on everything so like the boy who cried "Wolf" you can't figure out what is terrible vs. merely awful.

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  20. The Koch Brothers funded the anti-union push in Wisconsin.

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  21. Muted up move after last night's earnings.

    Most likely the gap will be filled sometime today.

    Lots of mixed stuff, oil, gold, euro down slightly, yen up.

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  22. I take back what I said about sales! Our sales have suddenly gone flat over the last month.

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  23. Denise - wow, that's a pretty sharp slow down. At least it looks like inflation slowed down just a bit as well.

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  24. Interesting, Thor. Perhaps that's a sign that some people who can afford it again are going back to the gym? Or maybe, the this fitness fad is petering out a bit? I mean, only so many people can/will stick to those intense workouts over time, right? I often think that without the group motivation/support, most people will have a really hard time working out at home alone. That's why a lot of fitness equipment at home goes unhused. I also find that I personally work out much harder at the gym or away from my house, even if I do often work out a bit at home from time to time.

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  25. Manny,

    Yes, and it was totally unexpected.

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  26. If this doesn't show one and all just how batshit crazy the GOP has become, I don't know what will:

    Over all, it showed that Republicans who are considering making presidential bids will have to woo a party that largely identifies with the Tea Party movement — more than half of Republican voters said they considered themselves Tea Party supporters — and has questions about President Obama’s origin of birth.

    A plurality of Republican voters, 47 percent, said they believed Mr. Obama, who was born in Hawaii, was born in another country; 22 percent said they did not know where he was born, and 32 percent said they believed he was born in the United States.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/22/us/politics/22republicans.html?hp

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  27. Imagine a Mike Huckaby presidency. I think "W" would be happy. Finally, someone to make him look smart. Love the quote below about someone "knowing Huckaby better because of tv". Good God, we are screwed.

    "If one Republican stands out in the Times/CBS News poll, it is Mr. Huckabee, who has his own show on the Fox News Channel. Roughly a third of all voters view him favorably, as opposed to a quarter who view him unfavorably. And among Republican voters, more than half view him positively as opposed to 11 percent who have negative views.

    “Watching Huckabee on TV gives me a good idea of how he views things,” Floyd Petersen, a disabled contractor in Thompson Falls, Mont., said in a follow-up interview. “TV has made me know him better.”

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  28. Manny - I'm not sure really. Our sales are flat, right about where they were last year at this time. Spring and summer are our slowest sales months so I'll be curious to see how much sales stay flat, or, god forbid, decline. We have some pretty aggressive expansion targets this year.

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  29. Here's a good one:

    Do High Profile Liars Make Society Less Honest?

    http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/books/2011/04/james-b-stewart-how-perjury-affects-society.html

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  30. @Rock: Here's a quasi-counterpoint to your corporate tax argument. I thought it was interesting, actually.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/musings-on-plutocracy.html

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  31. What is really pathetic about the birthers is that no matter where Obama was born, he is an American citizen because his mother was one.

    The GOP (Gingrich, Rove, Cantor, etc) are all nuts about former liberal Trump now being a candidate and birther.

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  32. A great passage from the article that demonstrates just how little awareness we have as citizens about what's really happening behind closed doors that's slowly robbing the masses over time. A super slow motion decline..

    So where did the resistance go? This is the real puzzle, and Hacker and Pierson take it seriously because they take democracy seriously, despite its unhealthy fixation on elections. Democracies are meant to favour the interests of the many over those of the few. As Hacker and Pierson put it, ‘Democracy may not be good at a lot of things. But one thing it is supposed to be good at is responding to problems that affect broad majorities.’ Did the majority not actually mind that they were losing out for the sake of the super-rich elite?….Hacker and Pierson….see strong evidence that the American public do still want a fairer tax system and do still see it as the job of politicians to protect their interests against the interests of high finance. The problem is that the public simply don’t know what the politicians are up to. They are not properly informed about how the rules have been steadily changed to their disadvantage. ‘Americans are no less egalitarian when it comes to their vision of an ideal world,’ Hacker and Pierson write. ‘But they are much less accurate when it comes to their vision of the real world.’

    Yves again. This actually does ring true. I was gobsmacked when I lived in Australia to see at all levels of income and education how much better informed people were about domestic and international politics.

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  33. Another good quote from the article:

    "Corporate lobbyists attest with their every breath that big government and big business are bedmates in a bountiful venture that impoverishes the rest of us.

    It is time to admit that we are, in practice if not surface appearance, close to the Chinese communist model of state-sponsored capitalism that sacrifices the interests of ordinary workers, be they in the public or private sector, for the exorbitant profits of the superrich."

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  34. A GREAT passage, Denise. I was struck by it as well. Again, TPTB aren't necessarily against "socialism" or "communism" or any "ism" per say. They're just against anything that would benefit the many over the few and wouldn't continually benefit them personally at the expense of everyone else all the time. These are mere silly labels that don't matter to these folks. What matters is "winning", as Charlie would say.

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  35. Denise - I've always thought the birther issue was more about latent racism than anything else. Reading Manny's article now. . ..

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  36. Thor,

    Latent racism? They don't even disguise their racism.

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  37. Denise - I was being polite ;-)

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  38. No need to be polite here, Thor. LOL. Nothing latent about it.

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  39. Sorry guys, I got mid way through the article and then started drooling over this recommendation and couldn't finish.

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6718420906413643126#

    VERY good article from what I've gotten through so far! The Carter information was new to me.

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  40. Watching now, Thor. Interesting.

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  41. @Thor: So much for the human being as a "rational actor". So much of human beings is about emotion and self delusion.

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  42. Manny - Am excited about watching it, I wish I had time now. You all have to have noticed the change in our society the last 20 or 30 years, that's about as far back as I can remember well, people seem different, I don't remember there ever being this much selfishness in the culture.

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  43. @Maannwich:

    I don't get into multinational corporation tax discussions anymore.

    "Grant to me the serenity of mind to accept that which cannot be changed; courage to change that which can be changed, and wisdom to know the one from the other".

    If anybody wants some pretty good weekend reading, which continues to support some of the things ol Rock has been saying, read

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2011/01/pdf/text.pdf

    The Eurozone is the weak link. Ben's been sending dollars there VIA treasury buybacks. China's been supporting at least Protugal's bonds and rumor is Spain as well.

    Anyway, I thought it was a good read.

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  44. It's a fascinating video, Thor. Much of it not totally new but still fascinated to have it reiterated in this way.

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  45. Dollar crashing to new lows again.

    So much for all of those dollar and inflation bulls.

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  46. Denise - I've been noticing the same thing! Dollar crashing hard the last couple weeks. Not good for my other obsession, oil. I'm hearing the expect the price of gas to go up through June!

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  47. ANother large building project for us. They're bringing the subway from downtown all the way through Century City if the development we've seen in Hollywood around the subway stops is any indication I'd imagine there will be a lot of development like this around future subway stops. There are more and more people here who are wanting alternatives to cars and buses.

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-century-city-deal-20110421,0,7956349.story?track=rss

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  48. Thor,

    Which is a natural thing when the climate is as mild as yours. Here taking public transportation is brutal as so many stops are in the open or on the el.

    That is where NYC has it over Chicago, the subway system is so superior to our mish mash here.

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  49. Well what do you know - GE's profit jumped 77%!

    See everyone, offshoring is GREAT for a companies bottom line!

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  50. I took a peek at Rock's favorite short and it looks like he is doing pretty good.

    Good Call

    Mutt

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  51. Anyone ever checked out The Hunting of Snark?

    It's one blog dedicated to calling out Megan McCardle's ineptitude. Very entertaining.

    http://agonyin8fits.blogspot.com/

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  52. I had to look up who she was, never heard of her before. But I have to agree, very entertaining.

    "Gloria Vanderbilt once invited Megan McArdle to a dinner party. I told Van I couldn’t imagine why she was inviting that, and she said, “Well, dear, Andrew Sullivan is coming as well, and we have to give him the chance to act superior to someone at the table.”

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  53. "Then she walked back to the table, but over her shoulder she said, “And we don’t talk to the servants like they are dogs, dear, not unless we want them to shit in the soup.”

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  54. Stock and Bond markets closed for Good Friday.

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  55. @Mutt

    At least you didn't say you had a peek in Rock's shorts.

    Anyway, it's getting ready for next week's earnings. Or I guess, in the case of X, next week's unearnings.

    How much of a loss do you think X will have?

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  56. @Rock,

    I thought you were taking the train -Palace on wheels - holidays in India? No.

    ICan

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  57. United Health: positive quarter. A quote from the call: "Looks like the healthcare bill won't be as bad as we thought".

    Of course not. It's just bad on the hospitals and service techs and specialists.

    The way to make money now is to be a doc-in-the-box. Provide every service, with your own overhead. Whether you're trained to provide that service or not.

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  58. Kentucky Fried Chicken (YUM) opened 3500 restaurants in China. Good for them. Bad for the health of the Chinese, whose diet consists of stir-fried unrecognizable green vegetables and rice.

    Anyway, know what you call a fat Chinese? A "chunk".

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  59. "Selling in May may not pay: Goldman". www.financialpost.com

    How did their 'sell commodities' call panned out?


    ICan

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  60. Rock (3:38) - Somethings like Peeking in your shorts can scare even the bravest of people.

    And I am not all that brave...

    Mutt

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  61. @ICAn:

    Yes, I fly the 29th. This will be my first "trip vacation" since, maybe, around 1985. All the others were typically the requisite "visit family" vacation.

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  62. @ICan:

    I plan to "eat too much Indian...."

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  63. @Rock: That comment by UNH is hilarious, as if the main reason that it's "not going to be as bad as they thought" isn't somehow that they had a hand in ensuring the bill was crafted in such a way as to not harm them at all, but make their business even more profitable at everyone else's expense, including the health of the people of our nation. This shit just gets surrealer and surrealer by the day. Yes, I know "surrealer" isn't a word.

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  64. I thought this was an interesting post:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-bernankes-qex-box

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  65. Spineless Dems already making excuses for when they'll cave again. It's downright comical at this point.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/21/democrats-debt-ceiling-debate_n_852074.html

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  66. @greg: Care to weigh in on this?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/21/al-franken-ed-markey-iphone-tracking_n_852196.html

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  67. LOL!

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/semi-nude-parliamentary-candidate-protests-against-banker-pay-at-rbs-agm.html

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  68. Andy - I have always found the word Cleave interesting as it can mean it's exact oppisite.

    cleave:
    1. To split with or as if with a sharp instrument. See Synonyms at tear1.
    2. To make or accomplish by or as if by cutting: cleave a path through the ice.
    3. To pierce or penetrate: The wings cleaved the foggy air.

    OR

    Cleave:

    1. To adhere, cling, or stick fast.
    2. To be faithful: cleave to one's principles.

    Which makes me pretty ambiviant on how to use it.

    Mangy Mutt

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  69. Right out of high school, I went to college which (Except for the girls) was a complete waste of time.

    But while I was going one of my classmates invited me to "The Apathy Club"

    Seriously....An Apathy Club, how do you get enuff apathetic people to show up for the meetings let alone join the club.

    I never had any interest in going to their meetings and I do not care if they are still holding them - I guess that would make me a perfect canidate for their club, but if I joined wouldn't that mean I cared?

    Mutt

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  70. Andy - I have been wanting to ask you, I saw on the news the other day that Texas is having some prettt severe wild fires.

    Has this had any impact on you? Or is the news making more out of this then they should?

    I truly hope you and your family are safely away from any harm.

    Mutt

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  71. Other confusing and or interesting words "Discombobulate"

    Does this mean someone can be Combobulated?

    If to people see things the same way they are in Agreement, if however they see things from different points of view they are in Disagreement.

    But the the word Combobulate does not exist, so how can someone be Discombobulate if they were never Combobulated in the first place.

    Just thinking about that has me all discombobulated

    Mutt

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  72. Jim Grant explain why QE3 is coming. Of course QE3 is coming. Does Benny have any choice? He's all-in now. No turning back. QE4 next, then 5.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-grant-explains-why-qe3-coming

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  73. Is the prospect of QE3 just about the only thing (The Bernank Put - the put to end all puts) keeping the market up these days, with the collective BELIEF in Benny to prop things up forever?

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  74. Poll shows nation's mood at lowest in 2 years. I guess QE-4-eva not lifting everyone's spirits.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/22/us/22poll.html?hp

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  75. From the article:


    Mr. Obama has considerable support for his proposal to end tax cuts for those earning $250,000 a year and more: 72 percent of respondents approved of doing so as away to address the deficit; 24 percent disapproved.

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  76. More...

    Given an option between cutting military, Social Security or Medicare spending as a way to reduce the overall budget, 45 percent chose military cuts, compared with those to Social Security (17 percent) or Medicare (21 percent.)

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  77. @Andy T: You can have some of our rain (and clouds) if you want. We've had more than our fair share this month of rain, clouds and dreary 30's/40's. It even snowed yesterday a little over an inch. Crazy. No sign of any real buds on most of the confused trees yet. They must think we skipped summer this year and figure there's no point growing any leaves. Although if I had to choose, I'd rather have what we're having than your drought or those nasty tornadoes, so I should probably a little more grateful than I am right now.

    Agree with you about the i-Phone tracking thing. What's up with that?

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  78. What would be the purpose of the i-Phone incorpoating the tracking thing? I don't get it. I can see if people decided to let people know where they are via Facebook or one of the other social media sites, but to automatically have it track your whereabouts without one knowing doesn't seem kosher to me.

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  79. Mutt - how many points do I get if I get all the double, triple, and quadruple meanings in your Cleave comment? :-)

    Andy, yes, it was an interesting song, did you listen closely to the words?

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  80. hah, how's this for and LA story. Obama is in town and the last two times he's screwed up traffic so much with his driving around that it took me two and a half hours to go home. So today he's here again, and pretty much going to be in places most of the way on my commute home.

    The traffic today was lighter than it has been in three weeks, I noticed it early this morning when I went to work too. Our parking garage at work was half empty when I left at 4:00 to get a head start. No traffic at all. They've been blasting the route for his visit on the TV and radio all week so people apparently just took the day off.

    Manny & Denise - I'm counting that as our first snow day! :P

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  81. Hah - I just noticed the ad in the video - Lectora Publisher. That software package has been a thorn in my side for two weeks. E-Learning software, to build classes. POS, worst technical support I've ever seen, and I've seen some shitty technical support.

    I wouldn't recommend it to anyone.

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  82. Andy - all phones track where you are. That technology has excited for many years, the police use it and it requires a court order to get at. All phone companies and manufacturers track where you are at all times. Your computer is talking to it's manufacturer right now and your car is logging how you drive.

    These things aren't new. That doesn't make any of them right, but it's certainly not new. If you knew just how much some of these companies you buy things from and use know about what you do, where you shop, and where you go, your head would spin.

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  83. and yes, I am aware of how easy it is to hack into an iPhone to get at that log, I've looked at mine. Officially it requires a court order to get at.

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  84. Manny - there's some conjecture that they were going to use it in an app - like to track your day, if you need to find your way back to a place you were, if you've lost something - I don't know how granular the location tracking can get - like if you've lost your keys in your house.

    I don't think Apple was doing anything nefarious with the data, unless you consider selling your minute by minute location to every marketer on the planet. . . but remember, they all do that, most especially google with your searches ;-)

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  85. I guess the point I'm trying to make, is that this isn't some big brother kind of thing you're seeing here. Big government is the problem, remember, the corporations have won. This is all about getting that information so they can sell you things they know you want to buy. Starbucks ads early in the morning when you pass one on the street. A pop up on your iPhone that GAP has a sale on orange shirts. Even if you've never shopped at GAP before, all of these networks and tracking systems will eventually merge and marketing programs will collate your shopping habits and color preferences and know that you have a closet full of Orange shirts. GAP will pay a lot of money for that information. So will every marketer in the world. Because they know that these tools are beginning to get a lot more sophisticated. They'll know what you watch, what you listen to on Pandora, what you buy at the grocery store, when you ovulate

    Remember, the corporations have won.

    And yes, I am aware that I sound a lot like MEH It's coming though, I've worked in IT for 15 years, and was in advertising for 8, what's coming will blow your mind.

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  86. let's see how hard it is to hack into shall we? Wolfie I may need your Unix skills ;-)

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  87. ah - or there's this. This is very well written.

    https://alexlevinson.wordpress.com/2011/04/21/3-major-issues-with-the-latest-iphone-tracking-discovery/

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  88. hey - there's an App for that!

    This has been around awhile. I'll put a pic up of mine.

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  89. The data from my iPhone tracking is above. I'll see how far in I can get.

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  90. Hey guys, was out for most of the day so am just reading the comments now. I think the tracking thing is much ado about nothing, kinda like that supposed antenna problem a while back. I would suggest for the next while that you don't go where you're not supposed to. Gruber thinks it will be fixed in the next ios update.
    Franken might be better served putting some Bankers in jail. I guess writing letters is easier work.

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  91. Thor, looks like you've been all over LA. Aren't you supposed to be working at home? How big is your friggin house?

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  92. Thor,

    I was listening to the radio and they said that originally the iPhone tracking was something they were going to sell to you, as a way of a log of your activities but the idea was never implemented, but they left it in anyway. And they went into the whole thing about the police being able to track you as you said.

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  93. Greg - you noticed that! That's me taking different ways to and from work depending on traffic :-)

    Life in LA man.

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  94. Thor,

    When I first looked at it I thought it was rain and clouds over LA.

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  95. I'm assuming those are cell tower locations, and the bigger the circle, the more times in that time period I've passed that tower.

    Obviously this is not new - someone found a way to make an application to display the tracking data. That couldn't haven't been done this quickly. Plus I can see from that it's tracked me since I got this phone.

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  96. Thor, the second map reminds me of this....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfHid8AMfuo

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  97. hahaha - well, I am agitated as I go by most of those cell towers to and from work, does that count?

    I'm an agitated dot.

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  98. How long of a time frame was that from?

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  99. greg,

    I won't agitate the dots, I promise. Funny commercial. I skip through most commercials these days so I miss the good ones, too.

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  100. Markets closed tomorrow! Going to Michigan for the day.

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  101. dss, here's another one in case you haven't seen it.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tITErSN_NY&feature=related

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