Morning all! Admittedly, this market has had me a bit confused lately. I had a quick look at the S&P chart today and am trying to figure out where we go from here. After nearly a 7% drop from the previous highs of 1,343 on 2/18, which got settled at about 1,256 at the close on 3/16, the market has slowly marched its way close to those previous highs, and settled at 1,325 this past Friday. A very resilient market indeed.
Given this recent rise off of that pullback over the past month, it would seem that we're at a very critical point in the market. At first glance, it would seem that a double top and/or lower high may be forming, which would seem to tell me that a correction or some type of significant pullback may once again be looming, but the longer we hang around at these levels has me wondering if this thing doesn't continue its march upwards with it ultimately testing and even breaching the prior "Manny top".
Take a peek at the chart. What does everyone think this morning? Which way do we go now? S&P 500
Rock gets to vote first, because he's awake and you're not.
ReplyDeleteIf you take a look at the weekly S&P500, you will see (if you look real hard and use a little imagination) an Adam and Eve formation with Adam around Jan 2010, and Eve's well-rounded bottom around May-Sept 2010.
I would really like to see that happen again, we have Adam's part already completed with the low in March/B, and we're starting a little weekly down trend now to perhaps form Eve's bottom.
I don't think it will be as deep as the July 2010 low, because of the dip-buyers, but I think 1225 would be a good area to see as the bottom target, then turn around for a charge into the end of the year.
In the short term, I think the eurodebt will be the consideration, and in the long term the global recovery will overcome euroworries.
Everybody will say that the economy's looking up, the numbers are getting better, at the end of summer, when they'll decide to bring the gas prices back down (after the driving vacation time, of course).
That's my $.02.
Dollar's up. No wonder. US isn't stable.
ReplyDeleteHuh?
Dollar's up?
Now there's one I don't grok.
S&P Revises U.S. Outlook to Negative.
ReplyDeleteMorning news is bearish.
www.zerohedge.com
ICan
Now this is going to leave a mark!
ReplyDeleteEither we have seen the lows of the day, (or close to it) or we are going to go down a lot more today.
ReplyDeleteCrude barely budging, but Gold and Silver up strongly.
ReplyDeleteBill Gross of Pimco starting to look like a genius, or maybe merely a pragmatist.
ReplyDelete@Dss
ReplyDeleteI agree with you. I'm in for a scalp, but stops are tight.
TLT is down quite a bit. Hope Mannwich isn't long.....
TLH not so good either.....
@Dss
ReplyDeletePimco did it before. I was listening, but my safety was on.
On cue, a selloff. Long live Manny's (big) top! LOL.
ReplyDelete@Rock: Dollar strong due to more EU uncertainty, don't you think? By default only.
ReplyDelete@Rock: I'm down just a little today but no big deal. SLV looking OK though. For now.
ReplyDeleteSo what do Benny and TPTB do now if BOTH treasuries and equities plunge TOGETHER while PM's and other commodities continue to march upward? Might that be a disaster for them?
ReplyDeleteRock,
ReplyDeleteIndicators have been mixed of late, but that can happen at tops as the bulls and bears fight it out, so this sell off is not a huge surprise.
What is important from here is to see how much damage will be done.
Manny,
ReplyDeleteBonds are weak (interest rates up) because of the downgrade, a higher rate of interest is demanded to finance the debt as they have judged our ability to repay debts as worse.
Dollar is up because rates are up.
ReplyDeleteThanks Denise. I smell a storm-a-brewing. Actually, several.
ReplyDeleteNow we know why the market was so mixed on Friday, it wasn't just expiration day. Safety stocks were up when the market was up.
ReplyDeleteAnd I am pretty sure that the US government was given a heads up before this happened as they needed to be prepared for the aftermath.
ReplyDeleteQuote of the day: "15 years of house appreciation and it's gone". Funny, similar things can be said of 401k statements.
ReplyDeleteWhen are people going to wake up and realize they've been conned and ROBBED?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/quote-of-day-15-years-of-house-price.html
Manny,
ReplyDeleteOne day at a time.
S&P affirms AAA For USA But Places Debt On Negative OutlookTitle
ReplyDeleteThen a little tough love: “Because the U.S. has, relative to its ‘AAA’ peers, what we consider to be very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness and the path to addressing these is not clear to us, we have revised our outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable.”
“We believe there is a material risk that U.S. policymakers might not reach an agreement on how to address medium- and long-term budgetary challenges by 2013; if an agreement is not reached and meaningful implementation is not begun by then, this would in our view render the U.S. fiscal profile meaningfully weaker than that of peer ‘AAA’ sovereigns.”
Yes, Denise. It WILL be a long, hard slog on that front, won't it? Problem is, by the time most realize it, it will be way too late.
ReplyDeleteMonth into spring, Chicago sets a snow record
ReplyDeleteFour weeks into spring and Chicago has set a record for snowfall.
The snow that whitened lily beds and turned the morning commute into a slog was the most to fall on the Chicago area on this date since 1910, according to the National Weather Service. A total of .4 inches was recorded back then. As of 8 a.m. today, .6 inches was recorded at O'Hare International Airport.
In some areas, mostly the north and western suburbs, anywhere from 1 to 2 inches fell. A total of 2.3 inches was recorded in Hebron in McHenry County, according to the weather service. No major accidents were reports, but there were some spin-outs on Lake Shore Drive.
When SPY Gaps Down Below 2 Up Closes
ReplyDeleteWe also got some snow on Friday night. The weather in April has been less than stellar overall, needless to say. Last year at this time, the trees were well in full bloom. This year, most barely have buds on them. Even more ammo to get out of here ASAP.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteWe are trying. Denver and Boulder are consistently 15-20 degrees warmer than we are during the day. Night time temps are not that much different. Add warmth and sunshine 300 days a year and I think it is a winner.
Even the lack of a income tax and dirt cheap housing prices could not lure me to a place like Florida.
Rather fitting I think, that one of the few stocks in the green today is THOR.
ReplyDeleteDenver high temp 70, low 45, Boulder 67 and 43, Chicago 42, and 37. Minneapolis 52 and 36. Even you are warmer than us today.
ReplyDeleteIt's mighty gray here though today, Denise. Like we live in black & white, while places with sun and warmth are in HD color. Drab, drab, drab.
ReplyDeleteWhoa!
ReplyDeleteManny - did you forget to tell us you were out of town?
Black, white, grey. Yup. With a few leaves that are green, yellow daffodils and forsythia.
ReplyDeleteMuch less volume and that last push down, let's see what kind of rally can be mustered, if any!
ReplyDeleteLots of short covering. And waiting for the other shoe to drop.
ReplyDeleteAnd, of course, the Bernank Put looms. Buy dem dips.
ReplyDelete@Thor: Maybe it's the reverse now? Maybe I need to leave town for a rally to occur? I'd happily to that again right now.
ReplyDeleteMy little VXX position popping.
ReplyDeleteBuyers coming into TLT a bit now too.
ReplyDeleteAh, the Moody's downgrade. Well that certainly was a wake up call for Congress. Or maybe just the financial industry's way of telling Obama and Congress that TOO much monkeying around with regulations and restrictions can be made to hurt more than just the financial services industry.
ReplyDeleteAnother good take on AAPL - (sorry greg)
ReplyDeleteThe Apple has fallen
The decline by Apple today has completed a major reversal head and shoulders pattern. In the process I have now sold the final 1/3 (another 100 shares per $100,000 of capital) of my short campaign.
The real question is not has APPL fallen but whether APPL is the canary in the coal mine...
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteMy take on it is that this gives Obama the cover he needs to raise taxes on the rich and institute other reforms. Will we like those reforms? Stay tuned. He sold us down the river on health care so I am not optimistic.
I believe AAPL may be the ultimate canary or "bellweather" if you will.
ReplyDeleteI love BR's response to the Moody's rating. He hits the nail on the head:
ReplyDeleteHence, the “negative outlook” of US debt has come about because the inability of Standard & Poor’s to have performed their jobs rating mortgage backed securities. Ultimately, this enabled the entire crisis, financial collapse, enormous budget deficit and now political over the debt ceiling.
That is priceless, Thor. And on point.
ReplyDeleteWhat a finer day than a Manny Monday for a tasty sell off!
ReplyDeleteSpecial mention to the morons at S&P. Not so moron though. I guess they'll have set up some investment vehicle to make some bucks, before releasing this unexpected rating.
Check back later. ;)
It's utterly amazing (and appalling) that these ratings agencies still exist. How in the world do they have any shred of credit (no pun intended) remaining? But I guess it fits the whole "extend & pretend" (heavy on the pretend) mantra, so on and on the show goes.
ReplyDeleteYou know - for the first time in a long time, I'm starting to see a scenario in which it would be possible for the economy to come unhinged again.
ReplyDeleteGreece defaulting, with a continued rightward drift in EU politics with Merkel and Sarjozy both losing to right, or far right governments with decidedly less enthusiasm for the continuation of the EU. Combine this with nearly six full months of budget nightmare in the US ending with substantial cut-backs in all parts of government (Federal, State, Local).
I think the head of this needle we need to thread is very very tiny and I'm not 100% sure we're going to be able to get through in one piece. . .
What do you guys think? More muddle through?
Thor,
ReplyDeleteI have absolutely no idea. Not sure how to incorporate EU political troubles with our economy.
I side more with BR, here the entire world is all shook up about a ratings agency's "caution".
"If ever there was an organization more corrupt, incompetent, and less capable of issuing an intelligent analysis on debt than S&P, I am unaware of them. Why do I write this? A huge part of the reason the US is in its awful financial position is due to the fine work of S&P."
Truer words were never spoken.
ReplyDelete@Thor: Bingo. Combine that with the mantra of "austeritization" of the Sheeple, by the Sheeple, and for the Sheeple, and we got a toxic brew. NOW you're talking and coming around to the Manny point of view. LOL.
ReplyDelete@Dss
ReplyDeleteYour 12:08
This link is a really good example of how to add on your strength and calculate your risk/reward.
Sorry it's kinda at Greg's expense, but oh well
Bottom line is add when the trade goes in your direction, and take off when it reverses on you.
I shorted VXX this AM and added to the short as it went down. Looking at the Tick, there's no reason (yet) to change that position.
I think there's gonna be a whale of a TurnAround Tuesday. I'll be looking at the buying at the close of the day. I haven't yet decided if I will trade that or how. But I think I might make a little nibble, maybe continue the VXX short overnight if there's end of day buying.
But I still believe we'll have a lower week close, and be closer to my Eve than ever before.
Bloomberg quoted a couple of investment houses that said they're looking for about a 6% retrace, which puts it a little lower than my target in the first comment.
Agreed Denise. So on point. It's unreal they are still being listened to at all, but as a I mentioned, it fits perfectly with the "pretend" side of "extend & pretend", so the show must go on. It also gives TPTB cover to continue to legally rob the masses time and time again. I would argue this is their main, and maybe only, real function.
ReplyDelete@Dss
ReplyDeleteOh, and by the way, I think you have to have a really good imagination to see a "head and shoulders" pattern there. IMHO. Looks like a double-top to me. And the "M" with the lower right hand side.
The tin-foil hat part of me also says that the ratings agencies are merely playing their role in the whole "we must cut the debt & deficit" game, hence the Sheeple must be austeritized" game that's being played out right now in Washington and on Wall Street. Sacrifice is for the little people only and the ratings agencies are only too happy to help with this initiative.
ReplyDeleteIt's all one giant theater production here. And we're paying "customers" whether we like it or not.
ReplyDeleteI also like how those like ZH dismiss everything about the ratings agencies until, of course, they offer something jives with their own viewpoint.
ReplyDeleteNow all of a sudden what they have to say is worth listening to. Of course. Agendas abound over at ZH too.
ReplyDeleteRock,
ReplyDeleteI just make the links, I don't analyze their conclusions or promote their conclusions. Just interesting to see what others are seeing. :-)
Manny - I've often though the same thing about many of the doom and gloom blogs! I remember seeing the same thing not long ago when one of the agencies who was once very bearish on GM came out with a report saying that they thought GM would make it. I remember ZH trotting out the rating agencies analysis on why GM probably wasn't going to make it at the time.
ReplyDeleteYou'd think that they would realize these kinds of flip flops show them for what they are - basing all of your reporting on nothing more than your own opinions and reports and analysis that backs up their pre-conceived view of the world.
That's a politicians MO, it shouldn't be the MO of a "news" blog.
Wow, record time in Boston Marathon. Just 2:03. Pretty amazing. I remember when 2:09 or more was the norm.
ReplyDeleteThat's like running 26 miles in a full sprint for most people. Insane.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteBonds are rejecting the S&P statement. TLT up!
Ten Years making new highs on the day.
I think this approach suggested by CR is quite reasonable. Which means, of course, it has no chance in hell of happening becuase it would mean tax increases on the wealthy.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/comment-on-deficit.html
Exactly Denise. Gotta love me some TLT, baby!
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteZH reminds me of Linda Blair in the Exorcist, head rotating, green vomit, the works.
All these experts claiming impending doom for Treasuries for nearly 2 years now almost makes me even MORE bullish on T's, at least in the short term, anyway.
ReplyDelete@Denise: LOL. I still go there just about every day because they do some good stuff. The problem is the other garbage often overshadows the good nuggets that are in there, and they've been wrong A LOT over the past year or so on just about everything except commodities.
ReplyDeleteooooh - Manny! I have a question for you. We changed our plans for travel this year and won't be going international. We're going to go see the fall colors in New England. Since that's your home, when's the best time to visit NYC, Boston, and the rest of New England and see the best colors?
ReplyDeletehome region I mean, not home. . . .although I suspect Boston is always home to you the way SF is to me.
ReplyDeleteand re: ZH. I think it's great that you're able to look past the garbage there to see the good stuff - because there is good stuff over there. . . .I'm just too hot tempered to keep my mouth shut.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteAgreed, ZH still has some great posts, but you have to avoid the self dealing ones like you would cow pies on a farm.
And the message board is just a sewer of negativity.
@Thor: I'd say generally around the third week of October for both, depending on how dry or wet (and hot) their summers are this year. A wet summer usually means not as colorful foliage, I believe. A dry means more colorful. It is really nice though. Actually, early fall was always my favorite time of year back there. Great color. We get some of that here too, but we don't get the splash of red as much. Our is mostly yellow and orange with very small amounts of red. Back east it's more of a mosaic of colors so it's a tad better and probably the best in the country, IMO
ReplyDeleteCould be good the second or fourth week too, again, depending a bit on preceding summer.
ReplyDelete@Denise: I don't even bother with the comments over there. Full of nutjobs and nihilists. They make us look tame (a "knitting group", if you will, LOL) over here in comparison.
ReplyDeleteThat's right, Thor? Boston/MA will always be "home" in many respects. 29 years of my life was spent there, but I'm pretty far removed from it now, especially since my parents are no longer there. Hope to make a quick trip or two there maybe next month and late August though. My sister and her family are still there.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteWe are headed up to that area in the third week of October. My daughter says that is when the colors where she is are best.
I would agree with her, Denise. That time of year is great back there. It's what follows that I loathe (same here in MN)!
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteNot requested, but here's Rock's thoughts on a New England fall:
Target Rocktober 10th. Southern NH. Earlier if you're up near My Man in the Mountain (who is a little down in the mouth these days, so sad to see) or down Maine, and a little later if you're in Mass or Connecticut.
If you're in southern NH, you must must visit
Parkers Barn for breakfast.
http://www.parkersmaplebarn.com/
Be prepared to see many of the state birds, the Flatlanded Leaflookers. Traffic can be difficult.
Also plan to eat the Mariners' Seafood Platter at one of the Weathervane restaurants. They're scattered throughout the area, including NH, Maine, Boston, Plymouth, etc.
And of course, you have to buy a hunting rifle as a souvenir at the Kittery Trading Post. Maybe a canoe too. They may have the laser pointer that Mutt was referring to.
And no matter who's playing, you have to go to the Hampton Beach Casino. Rock spent many a night up on that stage.
Towards the end of your trip, visit Plymouth Plantation, near the boat. You'll never regret seeing that.
I envy you.
French economists on our main radio for economics stuff were discussing France AAA rating. They openly stated that France doesn't deserve it anymore, but that rating agencies may be postponing a downgrading to after 2012 presidential election.
ReplyDeleteThe idea here is that the agencies would be giving the new president a chance to show some willingness to cut deficits. This is just the economists' hypothesis of course, nothing official. And that's what's disturbing.
@Rock: Ha! A lot of old stomping grounds for me in your post. Hampton Beach brings back many memories for me. I used to go up there as a kid and it was a tradition to do "beach week" after high school graduation where much alcohol drinking partying and mayhem took place every year by graduating seniors and friends.
ReplyDeleteDenise - if we're there around the same time we MUST meet up! :-)
ReplyDeleteManny, thank you! I know what you mean about losing that sense of "home". Since most of my family up in SF has passed I don't have much reason to go up there to visit friends and they normally want to come down here to get away from the cold summers. Will be heading up there four times this year, my three closest friends and I all went to high school together and we all turn 40 this year. Will be heading up there in November as well to celebrate my birthday. Busy busy year!
The speakers here are basically suggesting that debts' ratings are just toys thrown at the masses.
ReplyDeleteThe real stuff goes behind the scene, where the powerful set up the real rules.
Which interests they're protecting, who may be profiting from controlling the timing ... is everybody's guess.
A great slip of the tongue from Mark Crompton of Bloomberg, referring to the stock market as the "ess and plea"
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I find some encouraging signs in MSM discussing insights about what goes on in TPTB circles.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe in MSM radios' independence, I think that only some topics are deemed ok to discuss.
And when such critical topics are being freed for the sheeple to see, that hints at rats leaving some sinking ship.
For instance, they've given rating agencies to the dogs. They are willing to have them shut down, or at least vastly modified, in the near future.
Rock - Thank you so much!! I didn't know you new so much about New England. Saved all of your tips for the fall!
ReplyDeleteThat's my premise, Wolfie, but I would just call the ratings more "bullshit" (not "toys") and pretending, but it's all part of the ongoing theater show that D.C. and Wall Street are orchestrating for their benefit and at our expense.
ReplyDelete@Manny and dss re Apple. This quarter is shaping up quite differently for Apple. Normally it seems to ramp up prior to earnings and then sell off after the report. With a $40 drop prior to earnings this quarter, it should be very interesting on Wednesday at 4:30 pm. As usual the analysts and the bloggers have very different estimates for the quarter, and as usual somebody is going to be very wrong, and somebody is going to be right. I believe the analysts will be very wrong, again.
ReplyDelete@Thor: I think our Rock is a true Renaissance Rock.
ReplyDeleteWOlfie - Excellent theory!
ReplyDelete@greg: But honestly, how high can the stock go? It can't just go up forever, right? Someday, it's going to be priced in or more than priced in. Might that time be now or at least fast approaching?
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't short it, but I do think that AAPL run is getting long in the tooth. The stock, that is, not necessarily the underlying company.
ReplyDeletegreg,
ReplyDeleteAs a technician, I am more interested in the reaction to the earnings rather the earnings themselves as earnings can be massaged, even at Apple! Judging by the Apple retail stores I would think that they will report great earnings, but I am more interested in how Apple trades after earnings.
But this quarter my text happy daughter bought an Android instead of the iPhone, but what do I know?
Wolfie,
ReplyDeleteI think that the timing of the S&P announcement (so exquisite, just one day after option expiration) tells you that this is an orchestrated sell off, and of course, the WH was told before the announcement.
There are few accidental news announcements these days.
Manny,
ReplyDeleteAAPL is 10.73% intraday off of it's February top. AAPL hasn't returned more than that in a week except in January and June, 2009.
It can rocket 10% and not make a new high. And it can have fantastic earnings and still sell off.
@Thor
ReplyDeleteAnd if you're near MIT, go to Sunny's diner for a cheesesteak. On Landsdowne st. The guys that run it now are the son and the cousin of the guy that ran it when I was there. It's exactly (hard to believe) the same. I went there last 4th of July when I got my yearly return trip. Best Cheesesteak you've ever had. Guaranteed, or your money back. It's a greasy spoon hole in the wall, but don't back down.
Rock - Awesome. I would say my diet consists mainly of greasy spoon food, sounds like my kind of place!
ReplyDelete@dss, firstly let me say how sorry I am to here that you have temporarily lost your daughter to Android. I think it's best you don't show any disappointment, but continue to love and support her during these difficult times.
ReplyDeleteI agree about the reaction to earnings as being more important than the earnings themselves and why I was pointing out that this quarter is definitely shaping up differently than previously. It is interesting to say the least.
@Manny, the P/E just does not make sense at this level, for the way the company is growing. I don't think it is anywhere near it's ultimate price.
ReplyDelete@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteGood idea to not short AAPL. It can rip your face off.
The display shortages won't hit this quarter's revenues, but will next quarter. But I'm sure next quarter they'll have some streaming cloud-like entertainment concoction like Eminem playing while you're watching someone play Call of Duty or something entertaining like that, that Steve Jobs will convince everyone they can't live without.
(@Greg: Is Eminem speaking to Apple now?)
greg,
ReplyDeleteLOL.
ooh, my VXX short is doing niiiicccceeeee
ReplyDelete@Denise,2:35 : "There are few accidental news announcements these days." Doesn't change the fact that all these hypothetical practices are just stealing, pure and simple.
ReplyDeleteAnd I really believe many of the actors involved will end up paying. Some may find refuge to some places like Saudi Arabia. While a few will probably go unnoticed.
@Rock, I'm not sure that Eminem is speaking to Apple yet. The last I heard he needed a Doctor : )
ReplyDelete@Greg
ReplyDeleteMaybe he and Steve can get a quantity discount at PAMF?
Bloomberg had Mike Aronstein on. A comment he was making :The government doesn't generate anythin on its own, it removes it from the productive private enterprise..."
ReplyDeleteGot cut off by the network. What a gas!
They got him off and got another guy on right away.
Mike Aronstein sounds like he has a head on his shoulders.
Denise - I would be curious as to whu your daughter chose Android? You mentioned heavy texting, I wonder if the Android touch type screen is better than the iPhone. I must say, it's the one thing about my iPhone I really don't like. That's more because I have such large hands though, I wasn't able to type all that well on my blackberry.
ReplyDeleteRandom factoid from an article I'm going to be posting on Thursday. China is currently investing about 50% of GDP in fixed investment (infrastructure) We invest roughly TWO percent.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteShe was dying for an iPhone and was totally not interested in the Droid, until she tried out her friend's droids and loved it for texting.
She did not like the touch screen on the iPhone once she used one of her friend's Droid to actually text 100 miles an hour, instead of a few sample texts. She is a very fast typer and texter. It simply suited her needs better, and not that she thought one phone was better than the other.
The droid phone she got has an actual keyboard.
She also seldomly uses the phone to actually talk to people.
ReplyDeleteBuying is dying off.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we'll see to much pop tomorrow. Maybe poop, which is one more Zero.
Denise - hrmmm, that's good information to have. Will maybe have to try one out.
ReplyDelete@Dss
ReplyDeleteDon't they have speech to text yet? What happened to Dragon?
I hate texting, but I love getting an e-mail like message thing instead of an interruptive phone call in the middle of a meeting.
I would rather dictate my text message than use one of those itty bitty keyboards, or worse, a keyboard with absolutely no tactile feedback whatsoever (sorry, Greg).
Rock,
ReplyDeleteMy personal information about phones is about as advanced as my tech knowledge. I only know what my kids tell me.
@Rock,3:36PM: "They got him off and got another guy on right away."
ReplyDeleteAre you serious? hilarious:D. Does this kind of incident happen frequently on US MSM ?
anyone have any opinions about Peter Schiff? I don't follow him, and a friend of mine is curious. . .
ReplyDelete@Denise, 3:52PM : "She also seldomly uses the phone to actually talk to people." If she doesn't need the phone function, my initial advice would have been to go with the iPhone.
ReplyDeleteBut that's not an interesting deal actually. Remember you can't make voice calls on the iPhone actually. Well you can, but all you'll get from it is third world quality audio.
Unfortunately, this doesn't even make for a cheaper device than its better equipped Android cousins.
Go figure..
But Rock, Txt is a gr8 was to comunic8, cuz it allows u 2 just use accronyms, but b4 u can use dragon 2 txt, u probly need to train it.
ReplyDeleteMutt
And congratulations to your daughter for making a step in the right direction. I can't speak for the Motorola Droid (never seen it), but I love my current HTC Desire. That's my second Android HTC phone, and I can say Android devices are just getting better with each release.
ReplyDeleteDisclosure: I am not invested in ANY stock related to previously mentioned technologies.
(teasing :D)
I'd be willing to switch to the right Droid or different phone next year when my contact is up with AT&T and Apple. The two things I don't like most about the iPhone are the phone and texting features and I use it quite a bit for both. I really do love it for everything else though.
ReplyDeleteOk, off to some reading before a good night. As always, was good to hear your personal updates on middle to long term opinions for the S&P500.
ReplyDeleteI too will post some (probably minor) thoughts about the index tomorrow in the comments. However, I don't have much conviction either way yet.
Have a great evening all. And an early good morning to Rock.
@Manny, 5:21PM: What can I say after that. Amen.
ReplyDeleteOK, it IS April 18th, right? The reason I ask is apparently we are getting 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow and tomorrow night. I kid you not. Ugh. Good grief. After the brutal winter we just had, this is like pouring salt (or salted snow) in the wounds. Stop laughing Thor and Rock. LOL.
ReplyDeleteManny: I'll just respond to this. It was 90 here this weekend ;-)
ReplyDeleteThis is interesting...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/las-vegas-adds-jobs-in-march-first-time.html
I heard, Thor. My cousin, who lives in Burbank, kindly informed me.
ReplyDelete@Thor: What say ye about this? From CR. Cali recovery stalling?
ReplyDeleteIt will not be all good news tomorrow. California lost jobs in March, although this follows a record increase in jobs added in February - and the California unemployment rate declined in March. From Alana Semuels at the LA Times: California employers cut a net 11,600 jobs in March
The state lost a net 11,600 jobs in March after adding a record 84,600 in February, and the unemployment rate fell to 12% from 12.1%.
Nice trading today, Rock and Manny and anyone else who did well. Congrats on making some money.
ReplyDeleteManny - I saw that. What I'm seeing on the ground here, at least in LA and Palm Springs, is empty stores starting to open again, newly vacant business real estate being rented much faster, more buildings, and busier stores when I go out shopping.
ReplyDeleteAs far as the recovery stalling . . .I dunno, we had that really good number in January, followed by a small decline. . . I'd maybe wait a couple more months to see how things seem to be progressing.
Thor,
ReplyDeleteBeen seeing the same things here, in bankrupt Illinois... More stores are opening, homes are selling, and busier stores/restaurants in general.
One month does not make a trend. :-)
I have three letters for you: T......L.......T. LOL.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/jeffrey-gundlach-time-investors-prepare-substantial-softening-us-economy
Manny - I'm beginning to see the possibilities . . .
ReplyDeletemost of them not a bit nice
ReplyDelete@WolfStreet:
ReplyDeleteYour 4:23
I've been watching Bloomberg pretty religiously during trading hours and have it on in the background after I get home from work, while I do my analyses. It's the Asia feed because the US feed is all reruns.
I have never before seen the network cut somebody off before. I'll bet it'll be a long while before Mike is asked to be on again.
But I do often see the correspondent cut people off. For example, yesterday I saw this guy representing on-line gambling (although it's not gambling, they say), and he was being asked questions by the correspondent that he would have no way of knowing any answers (very obvious, looked to me like she wanted to discredit the guy)(which was easily done, BTW)and he answered something like "I have no idea why the USG is attacking a 10B$ industry when they let 3T$ Bankster fraud escape without any seizing of websites and freezing investor funds" .
The commentator said "We're not here to talk about that". Subject was changed.
That one was pretty good too.
Yes, the MSM no doubt has a message to convey, and that message comes from the top, and it most likely is supportive of the leaders of our economy (hate to use the word "elites").
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteU no i gt txt msgs all the tm so i hv no prob rdng dragons spch 2 txt.
@mutt
ReplyDeleten b sides thrs a movie nd books on how 2 trn ur dragon.
@Dss
ReplyDeleteI held my VXX short overnight. Could be a big mistake, depending on whether the selloff continues, or we get a Turnaround Tuesday. I didn't see any buying at the end of the day, but the Tick looks like the low was spiking higher for the last 25 minutes (except for the last 5, but I think that was folks who didn't want to hold overnight).
I see a lot of reversals in my charts, even in things like CLM, LEAP, PAYX where daily stochs are buried in the overbought region have hook days day-before-yesterday and are breaking channel headed down.
Looking more and more to me like Eve is starting to form. I hate to short the market, but there may be no alternative while the downchannels remain intact.
Rock,
ReplyDeleteThe primary problem of trading short term stock type things and not futures is that the market moves more overnight sometimes than it does during the day, so even if you have a stop you can get creamed.
At this point we could see a snap back rally or we could see more downside. It is one of those times where you needed to get short last week and hold on with a break even stop.
There are lots of mixed signals so it is difficult to figure out what is going on but things will resolve themselves one way or another.
ReplyDeleteyou're up late dear. Hey Rock! ;-)
ReplyDelete@Dss
ReplyDeleteYep, I understand. An old-time trader (who's even older than me--he's the guy that buys when the hourly, daily, and weekly stochs are on the bottom and goes off to play golf) that in a bull market, you add at the end of the day, because overnight it pops up then does nothing all day.
He never told me what to do in a bear market.
Anyway, Mannwich got 140+ comments. I'm soooooo jealous.