Well, we are close to a definition moment by Friday-Tuesday.
The stocks that I'm following in case that the market drops are
COH
APKT
VRSN
DECK
TXRH
ACTG
I'm just following them in order to have a plan B in place, but of course there are names there who had an impressive performance and want to check their price action for a few days before any commitment in case of a drop.
The plan A is of course that this fails to brake downwards in the next 6 trading days, in that case the challenge to the upside move is going to become noticeably weaker and a strong up move should occur.
Even though I'm just waiting to see if this timeframe works or not, personally I think that is too strong to not jolt the market out of the past 10 week range.
Next week I'll bring some stocks to the upside and I'll start discussing about timeframes.
I was patiently following the correctionless correction past weeks but I strongly believe that between Monday-Tuesday an important movement is going to start taking shape.Will see.
Dan
Wow! there goes my 10 minutes bearish divergence theory from yesterday.. and with it the "lower high" from April 8th.
ReplyDeleteMy trust in divergences is getting weaker every day.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, we still have our 1345 roof close at hand. This thing IS going down.
(..eventually..)
And thanks Dan. "the correctionless correction" , that's a good one :p
ReplyDeleteI assume the important 6 days timeframe you're monitoring spans from Tuesday Apr26th to next Tuesday May 3rd ? In which case there's a typo in your first sentence Well, we are close to a definition moment by Friday-Tuesday.
Interesting to have your (seemingly) more optimistic than the average scenario for the market.
ReplyDeleteLet's see what it prints on the charts from here to Tuesday then ;)
As far as I'm concerned, I'm confident in my outlook on the French individual stocks I'm trading.
ReplyDeleteBut my rather confused perspective for the global markets remains a worry, since they end up impacting all stocks (as discussed recently).
I'm prepared for a failure near the 1345 "top" on the SP500.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, if the index manages to take this line, I don't know what I will do with that new information..
1342.16 already... ain't that cute.
ReplyDelete[wipes sweat from brow]
Meanwhile, the long, slow slide in housing prices continue. My home city now below '09 lows, are a few others.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/case-shiller-home-prices-near-post.html
@Dastro:
ReplyDeleteThis could be my turn-around Tuesday, of which I'm so fond.
Thanks for your list. I'm looking into them, they all seem extremely strong.
Since we're at Manny's top again, I'm looking for weakness right now. Under the supposition his call is right on. Again.
I think WolfStreet may be looking for weakness as well. For weakness, I'm looking at LVS, although worldwide gambling is up, and the US closed down online gambling (from sites in the US, and I think some international sites are being blocked as well).
I didn't get my eve's bottom. Sigh.
My top is in serious jeopardy.
ReplyDeleteWolfie,
ReplyDeleteMarkets can work off over bought conditions by going sideways as well.
This looks more like the October-November 2010 action to me.
The indicators and internals that I follow have been mixed (see my Friday post) but importantly, there has been no deterioration in the advance decline line as there has been at other major tops.
ReplyDeletePlus, the ability of the market to shrug off bad news is an important tell going forward. Nuclear reactor meltdown, no problem!
ReplyDeleteTLT up as well. Something's gotta give there, right?
ReplyDeleteA sustained and true breakout above these highs will bring in lots of new money who think that the train has left without them.
ReplyDelete@Denise: I'm beginning to think WWIII could start at this point and the markets would shrug it off. Long live The Bernank Put! He's saved the fake world of the markets so why worry about what happens in the real world?
ReplyDeleteMorning everyone! Housing in 10 US cities at record lows? 19 out of 20 down last month? NO problem.
ReplyDeleteRally on Garth!
Hey also - has anyone read Mauldin's newsletter from last night? Very good reading on European debt.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteWeird decoupling of bonds and equities, but that usually resolves it's self in time.
Probably more reaction to tomorrow's Fed meeting.
Don't forget that American companies have record profits and are doing well in the world. This is the universe as represented by the S&P.
ReplyDeleteIt is easy to confuse the US economy with US companies. Obviously, the companies are doing better than the US.
Gold and silver off of their highs, and oil is not making any new highs, either.
ReplyDeleteNetflix - down $16 6.23%
ReplyDeleteGreat point about large multi-national companies and the disconnect. Never been a better time to be them. In reality, they're running the show everywhere.
ReplyDeleteDan - Your calls have been pretty good lately. Will be watching this Friday-Tuesday as well now!
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteMany of them have slimmed down their US work force, off shored expensive workers, and interest rates are the lowest almost in history. The big negative is that energy costs are sky rocketing, but that is more of a negative for manufacturers, rather than the type of corporations that we have now.
They are paying the lowest corporate tax rates in 60 years.
Also, real estate costs are declining.
Net positive for those companies.
@Dss: Your 10:58
ReplyDelete"This looks more like the October-November 2010 action to me." I'd like to understand that a little better.
It seems to me that the market was in a stronger position in Oct-Nov. Because of the run-up starting in Sept. When I draw the channel lines for the Sept-Oct run-up, the slopes are much more positive than when I draw the (triangular shape) channel lines from 2/13 top, and 3/13 bottom. Additionally, there were far more stocks above their moving averages in the Oct pullback time than now, because we've had a "flattening" of the price action since 2/13, and the averages have had a chance to catch up.
At the detail level, the stocks I look at, recently have had huge gaps, pushing the stocks out of their channels. Both in the positive direction, as well as the negative direction. I just didn't see that in the Oct pullback.
The last non-similarity I see is that the volumes in the Oct/Nov timeframe look like they were at least 25% higher than now. (Or now is 33% smaller, take your pick of view). That's a very significant volume change.
So please help me understand how this looks like Oct/Nov to you. I don't get it.
I think your observation in your 11:09 is so exactly dead on, and I've been thinking about this for several days. If the Bernank can convince the market to go up from here, the new money coming in will replace his treasury purchase $$, and be even more better, because the treasury purchase $$ have been going overseas.
I think that may be the plan. Thus the weakening of the $ and the continued carry trade making the market go up. It's just the lower volumes that scare me.
I think contrary forces to the plan include the rumored Chinese divestiture of $ assets. Couple that with China's declaration that they will be trading using the RMB and not the $ by the end of 2011, and depending on how fast they start that, well, the light volumes will be even more dangerous for us little investors.
So help me understand how this looks to you to be Oct/Nov pullback.
Thanks!
Manny, 10:53AM:"My top is in serious jeopardy."
ReplyDeleteOur roof is on fire fellow bears!
arf.. we don't need no water, like the song goes. Let the M%%%% overheat and burn.
That's OK, wolfie. Will be an even better entry point for some massive shorts down the road. I sit for now, watch and wait comfortably in my small positions for the time being. I can wait.
ReplyDeleteJust starting this now but this looks interesting.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/26/bernie-madoff-diana-henriques--interview_n_853559.html
Whatever happens, we shall trade accordingly, as always. ;)
ReplyDeleteRock,
ReplyDeleteWhy this looks like the Oct-Nov action to me is due to these factors:
Oct-Nov 2010 looks a lot like the March-April 2011. Slow rise, with the last week of overlapping prices.
New high in November which was followed by a break out to new highs.
We are now getting the break out to new highs.
There was six months between the April 2010 highs and the new highs in November. This time the break out only took 2 months.
I am not saying that these things are identical only that the action was similar.
I didn't address volume, channels, whether the market was in a stronger position, triangles, relative position to moving averages or gaps in individual stocks.
It was simple statement based upon a visual observation, not a detailed in-depth comparative analysis.
And if I had done a detailed in-depth comparative analysis I would have discussed the internal statistics and indicators that I use, and stated what conclusions that I have reached based upon this analysis.
Manny - agreed, all these run ups on bad or no news without any serious correction is just making the eventual fall, once it comes, that much more severe.
ReplyDeleteI'm still of the opinion that we'll breach the previous highs, at least on the S&P and Dow.
@Thor: If that happens, gas in Cali could be over $6/gallon by then. I think we fall apart before that point.
ReplyDeleteJ&J up 1.79%
ReplyDeleteMRK up 1.89%
Safety stocks with nice dividends.
Manny - same here, I think gas will also hit another record and then fall again. That drop in GDP has been partly caused by increasing fuel costs. Oil can't go too much higher from here I don't think without shoving us back into recession.
ReplyDeleteThink about how much of peoples' budgets consists of housing, gas and food. There's no way that prices can continue to go up in gas at this rate without causing severe shocks to budgets and by extension the economy. Well, unless of course, people go back to tapping credit cards just to get by, but even that game can't go on forever, can it?
ReplyDelete@Leftback:
ReplyDelete35B 2 year note sold today with a bid/cover of 3.06, down 10% from the average, 3.42.
Yield 0.673.
Yield is OK, but the 3.06 is bothering me a little. I guess we['ll see the 35B 5 year and the 29B 7 year and see what their B/C ratios are.
SHY is up a tiny bit, but IEI and IEF, the longer term funds are up .12 and .22 respectively. But yields are up too.
This is another one I don't get.
No new tick highs in either the NYSE or the NASDAQ yet today.
ReplyDelete@Rock,10:24AM:"I think WolfStreet may be looking for weakness as well" "Looking" indeed.. and from an even more cautious point of view, given the action going on today.
ReplyDelete@Denise,10:58AM:"Markets can work off over bought conditions by going sideways as well." Good observation. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteBeen quite a bit of sideways action lately too. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.........
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone believe that Silver just put in a top at $50.00 yesterday?
ReplyDeleteOr Gold at $1518?
ReplyDelete@Manny,1:10PM,and Thor re oil prices:I'm of your opinion that oil could lead to the end of the rally.
ReplyDeleteAnd from my limited understanding of Middle East geopolitics, it seems that middle term fluctuations of oil prices depend a great deal on how things will evolve in Syria during the coming weeks.
I think so, Denise.
ReplyDeleteAnd there's Greece restructuring its debt too. That's a highly possible scenario, and it can happen any day now.
ReplyDeleteQuite a few economic indicators appear to be turning south again as well.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/misc-richmond-fed-shows-slower.html
Or shall I say slowing down?
ReplyDeleteFrom Minyanville:
ReplyDeleteAndroid, not iPhone most wanted among buyers
According to a recent study by the Nielsen Company, Android has unseated the iPhone as the most wanted smartphone brand in the country. Last month, 31% of people interviewed said they want their next to device to bear the Android OS -- compared to the 30% who wanted an iPhone.
My daughter chose the Android over the iPhone as it suited her needs better.
greg, what do you think?
Commanding half of all smartphone sales in the last six months, Android devices dominated the market. Apple made up a quarter of all sales, BlackBerry 15%, Windows Phones 7%, and Palm and Symbian barely on the consumers' radar.
ReplyDelete@Denise: I believe it. Two things are causing it, I believe. Better texting on the Android and cheaper price for the phone. Young kids would rather text than talk on the phone and the iPhone's texting capabilities are inferior.
ReplyDeletetext is the only thing she really cares about.
ReplyDeleteCorey has a great analysis about the intermarket shake up, and why silver has gone down:
ReplyDeleteIntermarket Shake Up Day April 26
This makes a lot of sense when you think about it. Have we become a nation of self-absorbed narcissists having narcissist kids?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/26/science/26tier.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha210
Agree with Wolfie - the Greece debt restructuring announcement could very well be the catalyst for the next big leg down. My guess is that will start a chain reaction with both Ireland and Portugal.
ReplyDeleteThank god the Sheeple of the world are finally waking the f**k up.
Also, I've never told you all this before, but you have NO idea how hard it is for me to watch my mouth. In person I've got quite the foul one :P
ReplyDeleteI think most of us here have some idea, Thor. LOL. How long have we been at this now? ;-)
ReplyDelete@Thor: On your topic of We the Sheeple starting to wake up a little.....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/26/rent-vs-buy_n_852779.html
Manny - Good article! I've often thought this most recent generation was a lot more narcissistic than us Latchkey Kids. I don't know though, if that's reality, or just part of getting older myself.
ReplyDeleteLooks like some selling pressure here at the end.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking for a lower open tomorrow morning. Just for fun, of course.
Looks like X is still selling off going into their un-earnings day.
@dss, your 2:32. I really don't understand why people are so obsessed with market share. If it related directly to profit I would get it, but it never seems to. I think people just keep relating this to Microsoft versus Apple, somewhere in the olden days, but I don't see this playing out the same way. I'll stick with Apple's cash hoard and $600 plus per phone.
ReplyDeleteAndroid should sell more, everyone is making them. I think my neighbour makes them in his garage at night. I hear lots of banging going on.
Looking at tech stocks, the NASDAQ tech index is up 1% today.
ReplyDeleteBut looking at the individual stocks, I see mostly M's with the right side lower than the left, indicating a downtrend.
I look at the retail sector stocks and most of them are up-up-and-away.
This is quite backwards to what I expected. I expected that the techs would be up because that's where the sales would be as companies tried to become more efficient. I expected tech revenues to be up, and the stock prices would follow.
I expected the consumer would be whacked by energy prices, and consumption would be down. I expected retail revenues would drop.
Not so, kemosabe.
Retail's up. COH,TIF, wow.
And consumer sentiment is up, regardless of pumping $4/gallon gas.
QE2 is ending, and I think that's more a perspective issue than a real issue. I don't anticipate the market will react when the QE stops. And it won't completely stop, because the Fed has to re-invest the money as their securities mature.
But it seems, risk on. Silver 25 day options look down, same as Gold. Not that options really mean anything, but it's interesting they're down.
X May options are up. Can you believe that? A company that's trying to put itself out of business?
"Strange Days have Found Us".
@greg
ReplyDeleteYou're right.
The only hope is that the sheeple will listen to that crap, drive the price down so I can buy more. Today was a great day, down 1%. Maybe on a lower open tomorrow AM, I might get a little more.
The problem I have is because of the huge step function that happened because of the earnings report blows away all my charting tools. I wish they wouldn't do that.
@Greg,4:12PM:"I think my neighbour makes them in his garage at night. I hear lots of banging going on." While he's at it, maybe you can ask if he can have a look at that signal loss problem you're experiencing with your iPhone ?
ReplyDeleteGreg - hah, Brilliant!
ReplyDeleteWolfie - the fixed the signal loss problem, plus AT&T has spent a fortune adding cell towers in all the major US cities so there are seldom signal problems like there used to be.
@Thor:"My guess is that will start a chain reaction with both Ireland and Portugal. " I think so.
ReplyDeleteIt's not the amounts at stake that are the real threat here. Greece is a small economy in the big picture after all.
No, I think the problem here is that most people still believe that a Western state "can't possibly default".
Despite these crazy interest rates as of late, and headlines mentioning this scenario, I doubt investors are regarding this as a real possibility.
Once again: it can't happen. Until it can.
@Thor,5:07PM: ah ok. Thanks for the info.
ReplyDeleteDidn't know they packaged a cell tower with the phone. A solid work around indeed. Though maybe a little cumbersome at times?..
On this fine joke .. have a good evening all ;) and good morning Rock.
ReplyDelete@AndyT: if you're around, just wanted to let you know I've just released 3 of your comments from the spam folder. They're from Apr 04th, 11th and 20th.
ReplyDeleteThis spam feature has always been more of a pain than anything else.
ReplyDeleteDid it ever catch one real spam ? or just real users' stuff.. maybe we would be better off disabling it from the blog. If possible.
Which it's not. You can't disable Blogger spam feature..
ReplyDeleteHow can I disable the comment spam filter?
From a Google Employee (8/24/10)
"We really think it makes sense to have the comment spam filter an integral, non-optional part of Blogger (think Gmail). Your feedback in the blog, marking false positives as Not Spam or marking false negatives as Spam, will help us."
greg,
ReplyDeleteThanks. There is a big difference between Apple the company and Apple the products. Profitability is, of course, paramount, but what happens if Apple continues to lose market share? Wouldn't they have to lower their prices? I don't think even Apple is immune to the forces of supply and demand.
Netflix down 22.67 9.01%.
ReplyDeleteDenise - no, not necessarily. Greg can probably better explain that than I can. Google makes almost nothing on their phones, so their "market share" numbers are, for the most part, meaningless. If Google makes say, a 20 dollar profit on each device, and have 75% of the market, while Apple charges $400 and has 25% of the market. . . .
ReplyDeleteIt's the same reason why they can have such a small percentage of the desktop/laptop market yet still outperform MS, with a 90+% share of the overall PC market.
One of the reasons I should say - there's a lot more going on in why they outperform than just the desktop OS and software.
ReplyDeletedss, Apple has no history thus far of lowering prices due to market share. They have had very low "market share" of desktop sales and yet still have the highest ASP and profit from these products. I don't see any reason that they would change that way of thinking. Many pundits are making that argument, but it simply doesn't fit with historical patterns. Always keep in mind what Steve Jobs always says about Apple's DNA. I would think if they were interested in market share, they would just license their OS and see what happens. What would they gain?
ReplyDeleteKeep this in mind, we just went through one of the worst periods in financial history, and Apple has outperformed quarter after quarter, without reducing margins. I remember Manny disagreeing with me at one point when I called Apple recession proof, and I finally agreed to change that to recession resistant. I would now like to respectfully change that back. I'll cede market share to any other company or system, and maybe they'll have better luck than Nokia or GM.
@Wolfie, your 4:43...are you just referring to signal loss, or actual dropped calls. I never look at the bars of my phone so don't know if that ever occurs, and I've never had a dropped call. I don't think Apple makes the cell towers or operates the networks so I don't really see that as their problem. Maybe you're holding your phone wrong!
ReplyDeleteThis isn't new "news" to us, but thought I'd post it anyway. The more this shit comes out and is repeated, the more it will likely arouse the masses over time.
ReplyDelete"The report reinforces long-held beliefs that the banking system in essence engaged in taxpayer-financed arbitrage: They got money for free, then lent it back to Uncle Sam while collecting juicy returns. Left out of the equation are the millions of everyday borrowers, like households and small businesses, who were unable to secure loans needed to tide them over until the crisis ended."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/26/fed-lending-helped-wall-street_n_853884.html
From the article. Again, not new for anyone here, but.....
ReplyDelete"Why wasn't the Fed providing these same sweetheart deals to the American people?" asked Warren Gunnels, senior policy adviser to Sanders. "The Fed was practicing socialism for the rich, powerful and the connected, while the federal government was promoting rugged individualism to everyone else."
greg,
ReplyDeleteI see what you are saying now. Thanks.
Good one from Chris Whalen:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/chris-whalen-why-fed-must-let-rates-rise
If Wall Street wants Ben to increase rates and/or stop QE, I'm beginning to think that's precisely what will happen. Ben never does anything with Main Street's best interests in mind. After all, his main client is Wall Street and the big banks so he's going to do whatever is best for them and hope it magically trickles down to the rest of us.
ReplyDeleteBeen thinking about Free Trade lately. I used to be for free trade, now I see what it was really about - moving your workers, and your profits, out of the US. This was never about the US anyhow, it was only ever about profits for large corporations.
ReplyDeleteAndy you have to be nice when you come here. Those are the rules, please live by them. I know it's hard, but please make the effort ;-)
ReplyDelete$74 to fill up today. I'm starting to regret buying this damn thing.
ReplyDeleteThis is CLASSIC. Did these overreaching idiots in the GOP think their proposals would go over well with the majority of the country when only the wealthiest continue to benefit? I mean, those on the Right and in the Tea Party may be slow, but most of them aren't THAT slow. This is downright comical if you ask me.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/27/us/politics/27congress.html
And finally some smarts by the Dems with simple slogans like these "dismantling Medicare so that millionaires can get another tax cut". Now THAT is a message simple enough for nearly everyone to understand.
ReplyDeletemanny - check out ThinkProgress, I think people are figuring out what's actually going on. Major buyers remorse.
ReplyDelete@Thor: I also think this is why very few players in the GOP wants to step up and un for prez.
ReplyDelete@AT: Austerity and sacrifice for the Sheeple but nothing of the sort for the wealthy and privileged. I think that's becoming clear to even the thickest of skulls, although I could be wrong.
ReplyDeleteAndy - That argument is getting stale. You must find another, more technical answer as to why Apple products command a premium. One that will make more sense to the more technical among us.
ReplyDelete"because they're cool" is not an answer.
Manny,
ReplyDeleteDid you see the bone headed Op-ed that Romney (supposedly) authored? In his haste to denigrate Obama he revealed that he is an idiot.
He claimed:
"An opinion piece by the former Massachusetts governor focused on last week's threat by an influential ratings agency to cut the U.S. credit rating.
That message was quickly drowned out by backlash after Romney referred to Obama's stimulus programs as "one of the biggest peacetime spending binges in American history."
In doing so, Romney neglected to acknowledge the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and current involvement in Libya."
And this was no off the cuff statement where he could have misspoke, this was an opinion piece that supposedly someone actually wrote, someone else vetted and approved it and it was published.
If this is indicative of the quality of people around him or his own laxness in not reading what is being published under his name, he is not fit to hold office.
That response though, and especially your constant repetition of it, are pretty telling. You are clearly the kind of a person who allows your emotions to cloud your thinking, any competent technical person, or anyone willing to spend 10 minutes on the internet researching the matter, would make such an absurd statement. Your constant repetition of it, what is it now, going on two years? Shows us how very stubborn you are. Apple is just NOT good and you are not going to let any one or any thing sway you from that dogmatic belief.
ReplyDeleteNice
Denise - so much for "one termer". Lucky us, we get four more years of complete and utter madness in DC.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteThe Republicans are the gift that keeps on giving. They are so brain dead that they try and push their eliminate Medicare agenda in Florida, home to more senior citizens than any other state except CA.
In a sane state, Vermont, they just passed a single payer bill.
ReplyDelete"Now that the bill has passed both the House of Representatives and Senate, it will move to a conference committee to reconcile the two versions of the bill. It will then go to the desk of Gov. Peter Shumlin (D), who strongly supports the bill. Shumlin has said that it will make Vermont the first state where “health care will be a right and not a privilege.”
I read about that today Denise! I can't wait to see how that ends up.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteObama will win, especially since the clown car full of Republicans keeps self destructing with the most idiotic proposals known to man.
It never ceases to amaze me how so many people want the US to self destruct under the crushing debt load instead of raising taxes on the top 1%, closing loop holes, and what ever sane and rational spending cuts need to be made.
Bernie Sanders must be very proud of his state.
ReplyDelete@Denise: That is unreal about Mitt. I guess the endless wars are easy for elitists like him to forget about when they personally sacrifice nothing for them.
ReplyDeleteAmazing about VT, Denise. Good for them!
Easy to forget when none of his 5 strapping sons ever served in the military. Trust me, he would know we were are war if even one of them served their country.
ReplyDelete@Andy T, to be 'cool', requires there be someone or something uncool as competition, and I would say so far, there is no shortage of that in the markets that Apple dabbles in.
ReplyDeleteH & S bottom on the 10 years, possible. Which flies in the face of current thinking that interest rates are going to rise. We'll see in a few days.
ReplyDelete