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Friday, April 1, 2011

Friday Potpouri - Boulder Edition

Greetings from sunny and warm Boulder, Colorado. As many of you know, we are previewing the Boulder and surrounding area real estate market in anticipation of buying here in the next year or so. All we have to do is sell our house, no small feat in today's markets.

These photos were taken today at the end of the street where we are staying, so it is a view of the foot hills and walking trails behind us.





Our search began with all price ranges as we wanted to see what was available at both ends of our budget and see what we features we will have to compromise on, i.e., location, size of lot, age of the home and how much work would have to be done on the homes to bring them up to par. We are lucky that our friends/hosts are also realtors so they are helping us with our search.

There is a lot of inventory at all price levels but there is an amazing amount of houses that have deal breaker defects even at the high end. Housing prices are all over the map and it is difficult to determine good value because of several factors. Many home owners are obviously still in denial about price. Another tactic that masks the deterioration in prices is that houses are withdrawn from the market after not selling, and then relisted with a lower price which makes it appear that the price had never been reduced. The effect is that it appears that the housing market is much more stable than it actually may be.

Our realtor friends feel that there also is a great deal of shadow inventory, homes that either had been withdrawn from the market for lack of bids or those who want to sell but cannot take the hit. They are able to pull up all past history for the homes we are interested in and there are many who are obviously underwater as their mortgage exceeds the current value of the house plus the price and listing history are also readily available. Very shocking to see a house that was originally listed for 3 million in 2007, just sold for 1.5 million and there are other homes that have taken huge hits.

We feel as if we are on our own private version of "House Hunters" where we are critiquing the homes; house one, older home that needs updating, with a large yard but not enough bathrooms, house two, backs up to a road, needs total updating, but has the best floor plan, and house three, small mid-century home with incredible mountain views but needs gutting. The theme that runs through most of the homes in our price range was "needs updating" and I am not just talking about paint and new appliances. Most homes we saw needed major updating; the few that didn't were 90's econoboxes that totally lacked character, usable yard or the neighborhoods were too densely built.

This was a good exercise for us as we now have a good feel for the neighborhoods that we would like to concentrate our search in, but also was somewhat depressing due to price and condition of the houses in our price bracket. We feel that there are a lot of desperate sellers as the listing agents were calling back with "we will do what ever it takes to make a deal", "make an offer any offer!", so it appears to us that there is a dearth of buyers in this market which suggests to us that the prices are going lower.

We do feel confident that we will find an acceptable house in our price bracket, eventually. Now all we have to do is sell our house!

79 comments:

  1. Hello all. Busy these days. Hope you're doing well.

    Thanks Denise. The photos give the feeling of a nice place to live. I can imagine it makes for healthy walks, where one can take a break from the noisiness of this world. And take deep breathes while contemplating the surrounding nature.

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  2. Good luck with this new house project this.

    As for the markets, still no clear direction in the short time to me. 1333 is providing some resistance, let's see if that holds.

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  3. Maybe it's been mentioned already: BR gives a short update about his position.(March30th)

    "Our main model is now 51% cash, 49% long.
    Edging a Touch Longer . . .

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  4. Happy fools day!


    Happy house hunting, Denise.


    @WS,

    Saw that BR trade - long C.

    BTW, I sold my C this week. Done!

    ICan

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  5. @Dss

    Looks beautiful. I've been to Boulder doing some rock climbing, and was surprised by a blizzard on Sept 8.

    It snows for a long time there.

    Did you try the pizza?

    (you can tell my 2 hot buttons for where I want to live....)

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  6. Love Boulder! Perhaps our paths will cross in CO someday, Denise? Looking out my window at a dreary, cloudy 37 degree April 1st gives me the impetus to do it sooner rather than later.

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  7. @MAnnwich:

    Looks like Spring is there! Above freezing on April 1 !!!!

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  8. Morning all! Great post Denise, what a beautiful place!

    Full steam ahead in the markets.

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  9. That's not "spring" weather, Rock. Not in my book anyway. I also need to get out on my new bike to train for a 100-mile ride (mostly on gravel and very hilly) I'm doing in six weeks. Tough (or very unpleasant) to do when the weather is this bad. At least we're not MA, where they just got hit with about 8-10 inches in some spots last night and this morning. Oh well. Spring, unlike last year when April was amazing, is going to be a process this year, it looks like.

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  10. I wonder about the quality of those 216K jobs and if many fit this bill?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/01/business/economy/01jobs.html?_r=1&hp

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  11. But who cares about that if the credit spigots are still on, right?

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  12. This kind of thing really strikes me as quite sad. But of course it's all the greedy public unions' (or any decently paid workers') fault, I know.....bunch of greedy whiners.

    The numbers will not come as a surprise to working families who are struggling. Tara, a medical biller who declined to give her last name, said that she earns $15 an hour, while her husband, who works in building maintenance, makes $11.50 an hour. The couple, who live in Jamaica, Queens, have three sons, aged 9, 8 and 6.

    “We tried to cut back on a lot of things,” she said. But the couple has been unable to make ends meet on their wages, and visit the River Fund food pantry in Richmond Hill every Saturday. With no money for savings, “I’m hoping that I will hit the lotto soon,” she said.

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  13. How can a family of five making 26 bucks an hour live in NYC? Is it that much less expensive to live in Queens?

    Rock - Pizza is my absolute favorite food!

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  14. @Thor: It's much less expensive relative to Manhattan in some places in the outer boroughs, but it's still not fun living on that wage in NYC. Nevermind trying to raise a family. It is a GRIND there on wages at that level. Trust me.

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  15. Speaking of pizza, NYC has the best, period. One of things I miss about that place. Just dropping in somewhere for a solid slice on the go. My waist line thanks me for leaving that place though.

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  16. I see it's going to be in the high 70's in CO this weekend. Sigh. Not here.

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  17. Apparently the Fed (unsurprisingly) took some big liberties in their lending, ahem, activities, during the bailouts.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/quelle-surprise-fed-lent-over-110-billion-against-junk-collateral-during-crisis.html

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  18. @Mannwich:

    Tomorrow after work I'm going to

    http://www.wildsingapore.com/places/cj.htm

    Cost me about $5 to get there, and I'll probably rentabike. Tomorrow's projected temp: 86F.

    Not that I don't like Boulder, but, well, it snows in Boulder.

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  19. True Rock, but it melts quickly in Boulder with all of the sun and mild temps. I love being close to snow where I can ski and do snow-based activities, but still far enough away to not have to deal with at my house and regular routine. That's CO.

    I was just in FL where we had similar weather (80's) and really enjoyed my time there. Lots of golfing, pool lounging/wading, walking and simply enjoying the outdoors. Went to this place and thought it awesome. Anyone ever hear of it? I hadn't until last week. Interesting background of FL's highest point:

    http://www.boktowergardens.org/

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  20. Looks like my kind of place, Rock!

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  21. It was 92 in downtown LA yesterday. :-P

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  22. Rock - hah, you are SUCH a Californian, I love it :-) I don't like cold weather either my friend!

    Hey, take me with you on that nature trip! We're planning a big one for our birthdays this fall, can't wait!

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  23. Great story, politics, but I think it's important for how the next few elections are going to pan out.

    Cops, firefighters turn on GOP in labor fight

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52359.html#ixzz1IHku9Vss


    Who are these evil teachers who teach your children, these evil policemen who protect them, these evil firemen who pull them from burning buildings? When did we all become evil?” said Canterbury, whose union endorsed Bush in 2000 and 2004 and John McCain in 2008.

    He is traveling the country to rally FOP members to rise up against anti-labor laws in their states or in support of their colleagues in other states. “There is going to be a backlash,” said Canterbury, a former county police officer in South Carolina. “We are going to hold them accountable.”

    Already, rank-and-file police officers and firefighters who long viewed themselves as separate from the rest of the movement are carrying picket signs, signing petitions and standing side-by-side with their labor brethren.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52359.html#ixzz1IHko2L6Z

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  24. Rock also - did you see the most expensive house ever sold in the US was just sold in Los Altos?

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  25. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704530204576233170859101198.html

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  26. Morning from sunny and warm boulder.

    Rock, your points are well taken, it does snow here but the weather overall is much more mild than Chicago. 70 here, 45 in Chicago. Plus the lack of humidity makes it feel warmer when it is cold.

    No place is perfect but we think this will be a great place to retire. Especially with family and friends already here and there are so many amenities and a very high quality of life.

    But that also doesn't mean we won't seek warmer winter vacation spots!

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  27. VERY interesting article. I'm convinced more and more that this will be the start of the next financial crisis, the Black Swan of all Black Swans when it finally comes crashing down.

    Chinese finance: A shadowy presence

    John Kuhns was in Hong Kong at the end of January, visiting local branches of his mainland banks in search of money. That was because “my banks told me they might only be able to provide 60 per cent of what they lent last year, given restrictive new quotas”, says the head of China Hydroelectric, a Beijing-based investor in hydropower.

    But there was no need for alarm, these bankers added, according to Mr Kuhns, an American who has been active in Chinese power generation since the 1990s. “They said: ‘If you need more, we can help you arrange a bond issue in Hong Kong. Or we can help you set up a trust company to obtain more money.’”

    Welcome to the unofficial financial realm that has sprung up outside China’s heavily regulated banking system. At the same time as banks in China – under orders from a government anxious to rein in a lending boom – act to cut their credit to China Hydroelectric and other borrowers, their Hong Kong arms are offering alternative arrangements. Mr Kuhns says he was told he could raise as much as HK$3bn (US$385m) in bonds tied to the value of the renminbi, an amount far greater than he needed.


    Also - I love what you get when you copy and past from the FT.

    Please respect FT.com's ts&cs and copyright policy which allow you to: share links; copy content for personal use; & redistribute limited extracts.

    This counts as redistributing limited extracts right?

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  28. What you can't see in the pictures are the Flat Irons which are a bit to the west of the foothills. Many homes have views of the Flat Irons but the lots are small and sit on opposing bluffs. Having a view is not that important as the mountains are in your face when you are out and about.

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  29. "Who are these evil teachers who teach your children, these evil policemen who protect them, these evil firemen who pull them from burning buildings? When did we all become evil?” said Canterbury, whose union endorsed Bush in 2000 and 2004 and John McCain in 2008."

    Perfect example of voting against your own self interests and now you are surprised that the anti-labor anti-middle class GOP is out to get you now? It was ok when they went after others, but now they are coming after your pay and retirement.

    At least they have woken up, but Jeez Louise.

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  30. Great one, Thor. FINALLY, FINALLY, We the Sheeple are beginning to slowly wake up. The GOP is overreaching in a big way, which is one of the O man's "strategies". Let the GOP go so far to the right, that it leaves folks with nowehre to go but to vote for him again.

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  31. Denise - I was thinking the same thing, to have not seen this coming was almost criminal in it's obtuseness!

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  32. @Thor: Another excellent piece on China. The Global Shadow Banking system lives on. If they can keep all the balls continually in the air at once, then we'll be A-OK. But let's face it, there WILL be another bigger crisis. The qeustion is what will trigger it and when will it happen?

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  33. GREAT point (12:27 p.m.), Denise. It seems Americans have bought into the fact that it's OK when it comes to hammer others in their own class, but once the hammer reaches them, the idignance is palpaple. Far too many are still being divided and conquered though (e.g. see seniors, who for some reason mostly vote GOP, even though those same folks will scrap the programs they care about the most if given the chance). Here's the thing, folks. They're coming for YOU and YOURS next. Don't think you'll be immune.

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  34. We have had the pizza here and ours at home is better. But we will keep looking for great pizza.

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  35. This is just insane. Religious nuts everywhere are out of control.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/02/world/asia/02afghanistan.html?hp

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  36. Honestly, what's the point of this? To further inflame things around the world or simply get attention? Or both? So many idiots running around today doing and saying stupid things with technology aiding in the stupidity.

    Fran Ingram, an assistant at the Dove World Outreach Center, in Gainsville, Fla., said that the church had burned the Koran after a ceremony on March 20.

    “We put the Koran on trial and we did burn it,” she said. Ms. Ingram said she and other church members were no more concerned about their safety than before the burning and the killings of the United Nations workers in Afghanistan. “We have a huge stack of death threats,” she said. “We take precautions. I have a handgun. A lot of us have concealed weapons permits. We’re a small church and we don’t have money to hire security.”

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  37. Manny that's horrible - Jesus, those people had nothing to do with the bible burning in Florida, it's sad to see people (and we do it here too) who will pick one bad person with one bad event, like the Florida pastor, who is a joke in his own country I might ad, and apply the hate in response to that action to an entire people, no matter how tangentially associated with the original event.

    I firmly FIRMLY believe that it is long past time for us to leave this part of the world, Israel included. Let them all kill each other off and be done with it. We get nothing out of this.

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  38. Totally agree. No offense to moderate religious people but I just get the sense more and more that too many simply can't handle its power. Sprinkle that with a little technology and we've got one global toxic cocktail on our hands. It often leads (ironically) to some pretty despicable behaviors all around.

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  39. @MAnnwich:

    Your yesterday "Double top forming?"

    I can see the possibility that we will peter out this rally around 1345, however the slope of the SPY's upchannel says we'll be at round 1365 the middle of April.

    Looking at the stockcharts.com $spxa50, that looks like we will run that positive until the middle of April.

    So I have to side with ICan. I believe we are forming a W, and the buying pressure will extend to April/M.

    I think sometime in April, we will be facing yet another "black swan". We already have a lot: As we know, the nuclear reactors in Japan are in the process of meltdown, with Japan saying they want to enclose the reactors in concrete (this won't work because the heat generated will cause the reactor core to melt down, that is, through the bottom of the reactor vessel, like TMI (see http://www.johndearmond.com/2011/03/17/what-i-know-about-the-japanese-nuclear-situation/ for an in-depth report). We have Greece bonds coming due. We have wholesale withdrawls from Irish banks (causing them to need more bailout money), and people saying "let the banks fail" (but of course they get their money out first).

    Christine Roper (Obama fired her, remember?) says this jobs report is as good as it gets for awhile. I believe her. She works for Bloomberg now.

    I can't find much good news, and I don't understand why the market is shrugging off the substantial bad news.

    So my mid-april projection is completely technical-based. Not a good foundation; I would rather see all 4 factors of the market in alignment.

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  40. Thanks for your thoughts on that, Rock.

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  41. I have to admit, I remained stunned at the complacency of the markets in the face of so many quasi-black swans circling, or the many risks in terms of weighing them against the potential upside at this point in the rally. It's quite stunning to watch, but well done by The Beranank thus far. Gotta hand it to him but I don't think it's going to end well. For his sake, he'd better hope he's long gone and passed this steaming bag onto another sucker who can then get the blame at that point.

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  42. Well, there is the old adage that rallies don't usually end on bad news, so maybe it will end on good news, which could be this jobs number, which, as you said, could be as good as it gets for quite a while.

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  43. The monthly TLT chart looks strong to me. On the upswing, it would seem. @Denise - what are your thoughts on that chart?

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  44. @MAnnwich:

    "So many idiots running around today doing and saying stupid things with technology aiding in the stupidity."

    I love that quote. Made my day.

    "To further inflame things around the world or simply get attention? Or both?"

    Neither. It's to rotate the cannon of anger and MSM reporting away from the banksters. Not even Raj Raj a Raj a Raj's trial made Bloomberg today, and he's not even a Bankster.

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  45. hah - here's my favorite April Fools so far today

    Virgin supremo Richard Branson set his sights even higher, claiming via the company’s website that he has bought Pluto and intends to have it reinstated as a planet, a designation it was stripped of 15 years ago.

    Branson said he is having a special deep-space vehicle built to “help bulk up Pluto to its required planetary mass.”

    The company, he noted, “has expanded into many territories over the years, but we have never had our own planet before.”

    Pluto was said to have changed hands for an undisclosed sum.


    NPR had a really good one this morning as well, a new eye surgery that can enable people to view 3D movies and signs and other screens without the glasses, some people have problems with blurry NON 3-D displays after the surgery, but they're still working out the kinks.

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  46. Good point, Rock. Probably true, sadly enough. Sigh. When will people stop with the stupid diversions and focus on the important stuff? Seems obvious enough to me, and I don't believe that I'm the brightest bulb in the bunch, so why isn't obvious to others?

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  47. @ICan:

    A pretty good comment over at Cobra's today on the VIX. One guy said to short the VIX on pops to 30, but another guy said no, it's time to go long the VIX because it's spiked to 80.

    I think it's time to start thinking about going long the VIX. One guy says he likes the IVO, but that volume is too small for me, I like the VXX.

    The down-channel is starting to flatten out, but even at it's current slope, mid-April looks like a 27.50 price so worst case, that's about a buck and a quarter loss.

    Didn't Dastro say something about something happening in April, or was it April End, or was it May? I went back in the blogs and couldn't find it.

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  48. Yet another record in food stamp usage. This economy just keeps making record after record. Goldilocks is back baby! ;-)

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/america-celebrates-positive-nfp-surprise-and-wealth-effect-anoher-record-foodstamp-usage

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  49. The "good" news is the chart appears to be plateuing slightly, maybe even leveling off?

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  50. Manny - and sadly - a very large percentage of those people are children.

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  51. I think West nails it:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/cornel-west-obama-is-for-big-business-not-the-jobless.html

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  52. Manny - great video. I no longer think he's going to be a one termer though. I think if the R's had a stronger candidate he might be in some trouble, but it doesn't look like anyone running in 2012 is going to knock him off.

    Might be interesting to see if things change in the second term if he gets one. It would be nice if he took a far harder stand, somehow I doubt that's going to change though, he's so bought and paid for by the establishment. . .

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  53. dipping a little into the close today?

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  54. Oh, I'm with you. He'll win by process of elimination and the GOP simply doesn't have a candidate to beat him. They are also going to be largely blamed by the working class if things go in the tank again while they're seen as squeezing those same people.

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  55. Interesting from PragCap -

    http://pragcap.com/equity-allocations-remain-historically-low

    Individual investors decreased their allocations to equities last month, according to the March AAII Asset Allocation Survey. Stocks and stock funds comprised 61.4% of portfolios, a decrease of 1.9% from February. Even with the decrease, equity allocations remained above their historical average of 60% for the sixth consecutive month.

    Yet equities continue to ratchet on up as if we had no problems at all. Hmmmmm. This next crash is going to be a doozy.

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  56. Take a look at AAPL if you're thinking o buying dips.

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  57. I'm going to stand by my premise that treasuries and other crappy bonds aren't the only thing the Fed's been buying since March '09. Why wouldn't they also buy equities to prop things up and thereby create a "wealth effect" when they're basically doing everything else to do so? Why not this too?

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  58. Manny - I wonder though, not ruling it out, I just don't see why the fed would need to do that outright, couldn't they just have conversations with all the large trading houses about gaming equities? They're all basically working on the same team anyhow, how close is Bernanke and Timmy to the top leadership in these places?

    Course, it could also be as simple as the banks themselves borrowing money from the feds at 0% and buying equities with it to make a bigger profit than the 2% they loan it to consumers at. . .

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  59. Well, that's probably how it's been happening. I'm sure they didn't do it directly.

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  60. Waiting for my cardiologist appointment - I always feel so odd when I come here, I'm always the only one under 60.

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  61. One thing I do believe in, whatever the mechanism, is that this increased liquidity is finding it's way into the stock market. 1.7 trillion in QE in two Yeats is nothing to ignore .

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  62. @Thor:

    Yes, that's the way it used to happen, but not anymore. The banks got told they can't do this because in addition to the stocks they used to buy, they also bought their own which moved their stocks up.

    When they got told, they almost immediately shut down their proprietary trading desks, and I'll bet they're very careful about loaning the spin-offs money to buy equities.

    GS stopped it completely and furloughed all their prop desk people.

    Now how they're doing it is buying emini's in the overnight market.

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  63. @Thor:

    I think we all understood the excell liquidity was going overseas, and a lot of it was going to Europe.

    Remember we are the international trading currency, and we need to be cheaper in relation to the Euro. We need a strong Euro.

    And the Euro is in deep deep trouble because of basic insolvency of euro governments plus the insolvency of the major banks.

    And that's why we're not buying T's from Japan and China. Their currencies are strong and getting stronger.

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  64. make excell into excess. I must be tired.

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  65. "The cost of insuring against losses on European banks’ senior debt fell to the lowest in more than five months after Ireland ruled out forcing bondholders to share the cost of rescuing its lenders." Bloomberg Fri Apr 01.

    Happy fools day indeed!

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  66. There is a LOT of aftermarket selling acitivity on AAPL. Not much buying activity. But the aftermarket volume is quite high.

    Interesting.

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  67. Off Bloomberg TV: in that report just issued by the fed, most of the money went to foreigners, including Lybia.

    That's what I been saying, folks.


    Arab Banking Corp, based in Bahrain, got 35 Billion. That's Quad Daffy, folks.

    But Lehman couldn't get a dime.

    And Bernank can't be put in jail because of the tarp law.

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  68. Rock - I wonder what could be the reason for that after hours move on AAPL?

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  69. I need to start adding Calculated Risk back into my daily readings. The things he tracks are so helpful for a macro picture - looking at the vehicle sales numbers and paying especially close attention to the graph he's got up. You can clearly see things improving.

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  70. Things get "curiouser" and "curiouser" by the minute.....

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/why-is-the-fed-bailing-out-qaddafi-20110401

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  71. That post was April Fools material but unfortunately is real, I believe.

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  72. Manny,

    @10:10

    That would be great. Lots of inflow migration here.

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  73. a perfect LA night - 76 degrees, slight breeze, all the doors and windows open, I can smell gardenia and jasmine, and something ethnic one of my neighbors is cooking. I can hear the guys across the way talking German, I think they're getting ready for a party. So much life!

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