Crossroads

Hello everybody.

When I mentioned early in September what the market could do I made April-May the first important challenge that the equity market could or could not face, and we are here.

I'm trying to optimize the use of time (work constrains)that I get, to study the markets as a whole first and then re-engage in my silly accuracy rate predictions in individual stocks, (they are coming anyway).

But I need to get a clear idea of what the market can do because in a huge drop 80-90% of individual stocks get dragged in the general movement. When I'll be able to pick stocks successfully withouth paying attention to the general market...well, that would be the moment that I can say to myself after years and years of efforts you did it dude, but I'm not there.In the meantime I need to get help from the general market and/or improved synaptic activity.

And the general market is in a crossroad after 7 months and something. Meaning that what happens set the trend for several months or even more.

The market looks weak even though it didn't loose it's mojo.It sits around 1% from the top for more than a week after the Feb correction.Now started coming down a little without impulsiveness.

This behaviour could be seen as a plateau because of exhaustion but doesn't square too much with the fact that easily and rapidly erased the Feb correction.At that point did have lots of energy and then what? just to sit there looking pretty.

That doesn't look too weak, when push came to shove it recovered and now is playing with the idea of a doble top for everyone to see and begun dropping in slow motion, to give the impression to bearish players that they are lucky to jump in, because of the slow motion. That makes me suspicious.

My original view back in September was that will move up at a good pace till April May and then an important correction but the good pace stopped in Feb it's almost two months going nowhere but sitting at the very top without breaking it.
And we got already the doble top and what I'm struggling with is the fact that timewise is too early.

Had the double top come by the end of April early May I wouldn't have too many objections to the idea of a big down straight movement.

Now I'm more of expecting a drop that starts accelerating, stops reverse somewhat but not reaching the top; then drop but lower than from the point where it started rebounding, and drops some more.After that stalls at the bottom of the drop, test the area a few times and two weeks had passed and we are at the end of the month. :)

If it happens that way (a downhill movement with a hump in the middle) we have more bull to come.

The less favoured view being a distant second is that April 7 is the last top but for that being the case it cannot stop the drop for a nice rebound at least until the 28th or 29th of April; then a desperate attemp to reach the top again that fails, making a lower high, and a drop from there about 12-15%. This should be really simple to follow but I doubt that could play like that, we will need some panic and I'm not too convinced that people can be caught by surprise that easy today, the environment is not rosy.

And regarding where we are sitting by the end of the month we can see important chances of a big reversal to what we experience this two weeks.

All in all the end of April early May is still my line in the sand for something important.Will see what happens.

Dan