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Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Updating

Good morning everybody
I thought around two weeks ago that the market was going to move awway from this price zone but nothing happened.
Still waiting for an impulse strong enough to do the task.

I'm checking different scenarios with the expectation of getting more help during moments that look dull to see if they respond somewhat reliably.

Even though the leg that started in September has more to run timewise at least I'm very interested in determine if the up movement keeps going till April-May and then reverse or if the movement up is almost complete and now the price action is merely wasting time until it reaches that moment.

The correction in case of appear is not going to be substantial at least for a few months that view didn't change to me.
So if we have some meaningful correction in the next couple weeks (not 1-1.5%) the most probable moments should be:

1)In the next 48 hours

2)Between Jan 29 and Feb 3rd.

Again the movement should be swift, not stopping after a move down of 1% for instance, has to keep going down 8-10% withouth interruption.In that case the coming months will be a topping process where new highs are not acquired, or at least consistently.

If that kind of reversal is not attained means in my view that the move up has room to keep going up and not merely wasting time (the price action) till Apr-May, but going to new highs.

New highs is still my preferred view but will see if it holds in the next couple of days and to the first days of February.

Dan

96 comments:

  1. Morning, Dastro

    Well, let's see if you get your 120 today. Here's the first.

    Thanks for supplying your target dates.

    As reinforcement to your April-May timeframe, there is some kind of european financial something coming due in or around that time. I will try to remember or find what it was, but it had to do with warrants or European sovereign debt.

    I think we're buying treasuries and supplying currency to try to postpone or mitigate that European issue. If WolfStreet knows or remembers what it is, I hope he posts a comment.

    It may have been this:
    "Portugal must repay more than €12 billion in the first half of 2011. Spain faces bond redemptions of €15 billion in April and another €15 billion in July." from

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/11/business/global/11inside.html

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  2. @Dss
    Futures are setting up for a TurnAround Tuesday. any wagers for the close?

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  3. @Rock,

    Here is an educated guess.

    Oil is down, bonds are up, euro is down, I would guess based upon that we are going to have a down day but because the gap at this point in SPY points is small, we will see a rally attempt back up to y close first.

    Gold is also continuing it's downward trend, which must be driving all of the German style inflation fans and doom and gloomers crazy as gold is supposed to go up during inflation and bad economic news.

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  4. Grains are down sharply before their open.

    Silver and copper are all down as well.

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  5. I still like my short in the Russell 2.

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  6. @Manny,

    Lou Mish must be beside himself with worry, his only investment idea that made him money is going into the toilet.

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  7. @dss
    Oh, darn. I thought you were going to make me bet against the Patriots if I lost.....

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  8. So I'll put my neck out there. MWV is reporting today.

    I think I'll just for fun put a little long on it either at the end of the day, or at some time, depending on the tape. I think it's going to pop after the report (whenever that is, not sure right now).

    Let's see what happens.

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  9. @Dss

    Will you please quit putting out a bunch of one-liner comments? You're running Dastro's numbers up. How can we compete?

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  10. LOL Denise. But somehow it will be those "greedy unions" that caused his investment to plummet.

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  11. LOL Rock! Oops, sorry.....

    It's "quality, not quantity", Rock. Dontcha know? You betcha.

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  12. @Rock,

    I didn't know that this was a competition! I apologize for the clarity. :-)

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  13. Some minor support in April Gold @ 1320. Could see a rally attempt from there, but it is well below the 50 ema. I would short any rallies back up to the 20 ema. Looks like a nice top has formed in Gold.

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  14. @Rock,

    At least I am commenting in my own voice, not using third person cartoon personalities to round out the totals.

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  15. Meanwhile, in the real world, housing prices continue their slow, but steady decline.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/case-shiller-us-home-prices-keep.html

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  16. Morning all! Manny, hear Shiller is forecasting another 10% drop in housing prices. I wonder if that might be a conservative forecast.

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  17. @Manny,

    Pretty sobering statistics.

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  18. Gap fill accomplished. That is a very high probability trade.

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  19. The Dow's strength is a very good example of how 30 stocks can mask the over all deterioration in the market as a whole.

    S&P, Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000 are all weaker than the Dow and the internal statistics are weaker as well.

    If you were simply listening to what the Dow did yesterday: New post crash highs! Up 108 points! you would think that the entire market was doing as well as the Dow.

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  20. Added to a small short from yesterday.

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  21. Rock, I think MWV reports tomorrow before the bell.

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  22. FOMC meeting today, SOTU tonight.

    Might be an interesting afternoon.

    If Obama's speech is well received then we might see a rally tomorrow.

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  23. Cotton Wow! All time high?


    ICan

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  24. @Thor: Did you see this? Riots break out in Egypt.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rioting-breaks-out-egypt

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  25. Paul B. Farrell,

    "The super rich at Davos: 40 years of disaster".

    Commentary: Income gap peaking, crash, revolution dead ahead.

    Marketwatch.com

    Ican

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  26. Ivory Coast bans Coccoa exports.

    From Trader Mark's site -

    "Remarkable reversal of fortune in commmodities as 2010 laggards turn into 2011's winners".

    ICan

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  27. Looks like Egypt might be the next hot spot. After Tunisia's over throw via Twitter and Facebook, Twitter has been disabled in Egypt.

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  28. From ZH:

    "When we reported three days ago that 59 outbound shipments of gold were intercepted at the Egypt airport, we predicted that the country's oligarchs were proactively preparing precisely for what they knew is coming imminently. It has arrived. From Al-Jazeera: "Hundreds of protesters have begun to take to the streets in Cairo, the Egyptian capital, chanting slogans against the police, the interior minister and the government, in scenes that the capital has not seen since the 1970s, Al Jazeera's correspondent reported. Downtown Cairo has come to a standstill, and protesters are now marching towards the headquarters of the ruling National Democracy Party. "It is unprecedented for security forces to let people march like this without trying to stop them," Al Jazeera's Rawya Rageh reported from the site of the protest."

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  29. @Emmy,

    I think cotton shortage is due to Pakistan floods. Cotton started to rise around mid August, at about the time of those floods. Indian farmers have harvested their cotton crops in the end of Dec. Lot of farmers in our area in India are hoarding, looking for better prices to dump. India has banned cotton exports, under pressure from textile mills. But consumers are paying double the price for clothing.

    ICan

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  30. Rock & Denise - LOL! You beat me to the cartoon name comments!

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  31. Denise & Manny - I heard about that on my way in this morning! I keep having visions of the Bamyan Buddha's that were destroyed in Afghanistan running through my head. Egypt is really sitting on a knifes edge with this one I think. On the one hand, we should be hopeful that they might be about to throw off Mubarak after more than two decades, but political upheaval in a country so hugely dependent on international tourism can't be a good thing. If a more Islamist government comes to power, then forget it, all bets are off. Islam, as it's practiced in a lot of these countries does not respect earlier cultures or religions very much and there is the prohibition against portraying the human form. . .

    Who knows whether anything will come of this, or whether or not an Islamist or more conservative government would take Mubarak's place, but the upheaval will not be good for tourism and the loss of the tourism money would hit many Egyptians very hard.

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  32. Mubarak has US backing, don't know where it goes from here.

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  33. Maybe it would end up being a good thing. Egypt was the cultural and intellectual capital of the Arab world for centuries, maybe if they do overthrow Mubarak they might end up with a more liberal government and Egypt could lead the way to a kind of Renaissance in Arab thought and politics. I won't hold my breath though, the Islamists seem to always be the ones that come to power in these countries lately.

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  34. @Thor,

    One liners aside, as long as people don't start asking about my top, bottom, feet, ankles, shoes, underwear, or sexual fetishes, I think we are safe.

    How unseemly!

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  35. @Rock:only event im aware of is new bank stress tests(more realistic ones,namely more accurate accountingo of their positions in sovereign debts).

    Also,what may hit the markets big time is fears on France missing its deficit target. Must lower it to 6% this year,IIRC.

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  36. Stress tests in march iirc.

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  37. New lows. Next stop, yesterday's lows of 1278.50 ES.

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  38. @Rock,

    I guess we are in agreement!

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  39. @greg:

    Thanks. It's kind of confusing for this old rock to know exactly when tomorrow is.

    You'll understand someday.

    Last week, I went to Taiwan. I may have to go there for assignment, it remains to be seen, depends on hiring success. Anyway, from my old friends (all Rock's friends are old) at Acer, I got an Android phone. They're not available in Sing yet, so when I took it out at Ion (a mall), I was mobbed by teenagers. It was fun.

    Anyway, I have to say that I don't have an iPhone, but I do have an iPod Touch, and the Android sucks compared to the iPod.

    I know Steve Jobs reviews and approves (and makes changes in) the functional specs of Apple products. If he does not return, he will be sorely missed.

    By an entire generation.

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  40. Doom gloom or full of bulll today?

    Rock
    I getting ready the oneliners for tomorrow ;)
    Dan

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  41. Rock - not surprised, we have 5 users here on Android based phones and none of them like it very much. They're all upgrades from Blackberry users so it's at least an improvement on that.

    Ease of use and stability are the main complaints we've gotten about the Android phones.

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  42. Like I said, powerful people have influence on people in powerful positions. We don't even bother to hide that we're a Banana Republic with Nukes anymore. At least before we pretended not to be.

    BREAKING NEWS1:10 PM ET Illinois Supreme Court Halts Printing of Chicago Mayoral Ballots Without Emanuel’s Name

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  43. Looks like things have flared up in Lebanon as well today?

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  44. Yay - more lawsuits about elections! Denise, you're from Illinois, what do you think about this whole Emanuel mess? Do you feel like you're being disenfranchise? ;-)

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  45. I'm shocked at some of the pictures coming our of Cairo - most specifically the women. I don't know where these uncovered women were when we were in Egypt, but we all commented on how universal head covering was there - even Cairo, which we saw from one end to the other.

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  46. @Thor,

    I am not a citizen of Chicago so I don't get to vote.

    The Supreme court will be doing the deciding and the justices are elected in partisan elections. There are more Democrats than Republicans on the court, but this is Democrats against Democrats for Mayor.

    I really don't have a clue how this will work out but Emmanuel has very powerful backing in Illinois and Washington. One machine replaces another. I think he gets on the ballot, and if he does, he wins.

    In the end I think a more powerful mayor is better for Chicago and Illinois than someone with no connections or worse, Carol Moseley Braun who is tainted.

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  47. @Thor, Maybe the rebels are more secular than the average citizen. Just having women out there is pretty unusual I would think.

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  48. @Thor,

    Where have you seen pictures?

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  49. Is wheat next cotton?

    "Key wheat growing regions in China hit by drought".www.fundmymutualfund.com
    So, if food inflation rises, then rate hikes more immenent?

    Wheat in India is doing good so far.

    From bloomberg/regions:

    "Canada's inflation rate quickens to 2.4% in December on 13% jump in gasoline". Nobody eats here. So no need to worry about that.

    "La Nina may last till August, boost crop risk, Commoditiy Weather Group LLC said".

    ICan

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  50. Denise - that's right, Mayor, not Governor. Another busy day at the salt mine. . .

    Will have to watch the news for Egypt, the MSM has a tendency to over hype stuff, frustrating!

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  51. Denise -

    http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/20111251711053608.html

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  52. Wow Thor. Looks like you just missed this. Things heating up.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/egypt-riots-update-teargas-fired-protestors-ruling-family-rumored-leave-cairo

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  53. Manny - No shit! I'd question the source on that one though. So far it doesn't sound like these protests are anywhere near as large as those after the last presidential election. Maybe things are different now with Tunisia so recently in the past?

    The presidential palace in Cairo is a fortress, I'd imagine there aren't very many other places in Egypt that would be more secure for the president. All the military bases (air force, army, national police) surround the palace so not sure a bunch of protesters with rocks would scare the president into going up to Sinai.

    Who knows though right? No one would have picked Tunisia to fall like it did, maybe the same will happen in Egypt!

    So glad we went when we did, if anything, this is going to put a pretty big dent in their tourism for the next couple years.

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  54. True Thor, although it did make the Times a short time ago.

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  55. Another thing I'm paying attention to - are all the pics, if you notice, they're all taken very close up, you don't see wide shots of the crowd. My guess is because if you look closely at the pictures in the MSM, most of the time there are more police in the crowd that protesters. I'm waiting to see wide shots of squares and streets filled with protesters.

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  56. Agreed Thor, but ANY protest in a place like Egypt still qualifies as "news", does it not?

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  57. Front page news on the NY Times site:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/26/world/middleeast/26egypt.html?_r=1&hp

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  58. Islam itself is a peacful religion. My parents, although young at the time, have fond memories of muslim neighours before the India/Pakistan pertition of 1947. India actually has a very high percentage of muslim population who never moved to Pakistan. It was the British who split India.

    Islam has been used by corrupt mullahs(especially the ones from Saudi Arabia) for their own egoist ambitions. Pakistan went down hill from the time the Whabi(?) branch of Islam moved there from S. Arabia during the Afghan-Russian wars. They have been terriorising Indian Kashmir also.

    There is a difference between religion and culture. The holy book, Koran was never written by Prophet Mohammad. Covering one's head, and degrading their women is more like a cultural norm than religious edict.

    Read Sufi saints like Farid and Rumi and you'll see what I mean. Humans use all kind of means to control others - religion(fear and reward) is one of them.

    I had to overcome my own bias against muslims. We have a long history of animosity. If you know history of India, you'll know what I mean.

    ICan

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  59. "Humans use all kind of means to control others - religion(fear and reward) is one of them."

    Totally agree, I Can. Well said.

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  60. Manny - no not at all. They protest there all the time. When we were coming back to Alexandria on our way to Cairo there were protests over some soccer game.

    See below. . .

    The story isn't from my blog . . .

    http://www.travelpod.com/blog/2009/11/20/cairo-protests-travel-bloggers-in-the-midst-of-violence/

    Protests have erupted near the Algerian embassy in Cairo after a World Cup play-off game was lost to that country’s soccer team. Eleven police officers and 24 protesters were injured yesterday and Rich Frohl, our blogger on the ground is right in the middle of it.

    They also had some pretty big protests over the last election as well as protests over the bombing in Alexandria. . . .

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  61. Michelle Bachmann speaking after SOTU--just for Mannwich's sake.

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  62. OK Thor, but it is gaining traction in the MSM today as well so let's not immediate discount ZH, even though they can veer off into hysterical-land more often than not.

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  63. Is that right, Anon? Seriously? I hadn't planned on watching the SOTU, but now I might have to just tune in for that nutjob if she is indeed speaking. Good to see the GOP putting its "best & brightest" (and most insane) out front. It suits them and their message.

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  64. Manny - part of my response today is wishful thinking fyi. I don't want to see Egypt have to go through what I think it's probably going to have to go through in the next decade :-(

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  65. Manny - Apparently she's doing the Tea Party response and that's going to be online I think. I'll most definitely be interested to hear what the lunatic has to say.

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  66. She's got those cra-cra craaazzzyy eyes. I can't wait and am BEGGING her to run for prez. It will actually make me pay attention in a sad sort of way.

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  67. @Manny,

    I think that Palin has burned too many bridges (to no where) and has turned off too many people to have much effect anymore.

    But Bachman? Holy Crap! The two of them are the gifts that keep on giving. (cue Twilight Zone music)

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  68. The Un-united Narcissists of America. Our nation's new moniker.

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  69. So many mainstream Republicans keep running the other way and distancing themselves from both of them.

    They will split the field, and Obama will win because the Tea Party is too damned stubborn to give up.

    I think most of the GOP sees them as spoilers.

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  70. That's what I think is so comical about it.

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  71. @Jeff,

    You've read Fareed Zakaria? Most Indian muslims are like him.


    ICan

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  72. Manny - Three killed in those protests in Egypt . . so yeah, probably best not to discount ZH out of hand! I think these deaths will take this to a different level.

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  73. @I Can: I've read a little bit of him. I've always thought that for many religion is a powerful, yet dangerous tool that can often be used for very bad things, no matter what religion. That's kind of why I've steered clear of any dogmatic religious beliefs for most my life. That level of certitude and righteousness is very dangerous on many levels if not harnessed appropriately and too many people are either easily manipulated by that power or find it too justifiable to use it to manipulate others to further their own personal agendas.

    Yikes Thor. I guess it's not your garden variety protest then?

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  74. Market still refuses to go down in any meaningful way. Quite amazing.

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  75. @ICan,

    Thanks for those insights.

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  76. "Dip" bought. Correction over. Bull market full steam ahead.

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  77. That's insane - what is up with this market?

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  78. Does anyone really think is a legitimately performing and REAL "market" anymore? Seriously?

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  79. Manny - Sort of, I think it's distorted quite a bit by QE1 and now QE2. . . .

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  80. @Manny,

    State of the Union obviously is going to play well, and I would guess that the FOMC will be a positive for the markets as well.

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  81. Great points. Probably 1300 and then some, I Can. TPTB are going to push this thing where they need to. Too much riding on it not to.....

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  82. Manny, and anyone else who's interested. Found a constantly updating news source for the stuff going on in the middle east.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/blog/2011/jan/25/middleeast-tunisia

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  83. God, I wonder what they're doing with all the tourists, sending them home?

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  84. Davos, Switzerland and illegal money outflows from India.

    That is an issue, which comes to the forefront on and off in India. It's usually raised by opposition parties.

    Front page news today in the Tribune - "Money Stashed in Banks Abroad". http://tribuneindia.com

    "A current study by Global Financial Integrity (group) has estimated the present value of illicit money outflows to be $462 billion". Multiply that by 45 times for Indian rupees value and that's a big number for common person.

    Funny, in India it's called "black" money - that which is accumulated by illegal means.

    ICan

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  85. Some looted treasury money is hiding in Canada.

    "Family members of deposed Tunisian leader believed to be in Montreal". www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/quebec/

    "Five to ten extended members of Tunisia's deposed first family flew by PRIVATE JET to Montreal last week....The Immigration Minister said some members fo the ex-President's family already had permanent resident status and therefore had the legal right to be in Canada".

    Canada is happy to take stolen money? Some people say the Vancouver real estate is kept afloat by money coming from China via HongKong.

    ICan

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  86. U$D and U.S. is mother of all safehavens. If ever there is any war or major crisis, watch the U$D liftoff!


    ICan

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  87. @ICan

    I imagine the French people also aren't too happy their government will take in Ben Ali.



    On the other hand, taking them in probably ensures a relatively bloodless transfer of power.

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  88. Manny - and here's the large crowd shot I was looking for. That's a LOT of people.

    http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=7710773&id=386178881762

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  89. And some raw video footage - scary stuff.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtTUsqra-MU

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NgW4oeXa5Y

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  90. There you go, Thor. Looks pretty serious to me. Interesting how things can just boil over all of a sudden. Shows that behind the appearance of a functioning society, there's often a festering, simmering boil underneath that's ready to explode at any moment.

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