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Monday, January 10, 2011

Manny Mondays: Holiday Travel Pics Open Thread Edition

Morning all! Due a busy weekend and quite frankly not being in the mood to post anything at all serious, I'm opening things up today. Anything that's on your mind is fair game, so fire away.

However, here's one long Sunday NY Times article about the ongoing, yet under publicized (until now) scam, dubious "accounting" (and time bomb) that is law school in the U.S. (and student loan debts) that definitely caught my eye over the weekend and is well worth reading:

Is Law School a Losing Game?

Much of the content of the article is simply astounding to me (as well as the willful self-delusion among applicants & students), and tells me this problem doesn't reside only with law schools. I gotta believe it's more widespread. Here are a couple of striking excerpts:

“Enron-type accounting standards have become the norm,” says William Henderson of Indiana University, one of many exasperated law professors who are asking the American Bar Association to overhaul the way law schools assess themselves. “Every time I look at this data, I feel dirty.”

IT is an open secret, Professor Henderson and others say, that schools finesse survey information in dozens of ways. And the survey’s guidelines, which are established not by U.S. News but by the American Bar Association, in conjunction with an organization called the National Association for Law Placement, all but invite trimming.

A law grad, for instance, counts as “employed after nine months” even if he or she has a job that doesn’t require a law degree. Waiting tables at Applebee’s? You’re employed. Stocking aisles at Home Depot? You’re working, too.


It also seems that, according to the article, the lure of the easy money machine isn't only reserved for those well-heeled denizens of Wall Street:

Number-fudging games are endemic, professors and deans say, because the fortunes of law schools rise and fall on rankings, with reputations and huge sums of money hanging in the balance. You may think of law schools as training grounds for new lawyers, but that is just part of it.

They are also cash cows.

Tuition at even mediocre law schools can cost up to $43,000 a year. Those huge lecture-hall classes — remember “The Paper Chase”? — keep teaching costs down. There are no labs or expensive equipment to maintain. So much money flows into law schools that law professors are among the highest paid in academia, and law schools that are part of universities often subsidize the money-losing fields of higher education.

“If you’re a law school and you add 25 kids to your class, that’s a million dollars, and you don’t even have to hire another teacher,” says Allen Tanenbaum, a lawyer in Atlanta who led the American Bar Association’s commission on the impact of the economic crisis on the profession and legal needs. “That additional income goes straight to the bottom line.”


I'm sure that saddling many in our younger generations with hundreds of thousands undischargable (and unpayable) debt (and a subsequent life of serfdom) will end well though. What could possibly go wrong?

I'll leave you with a few photos from my recent trip to CO over the holidays:

79 comments:

  1. What better day than a Manny Monday to savour some red ticks?:p

    Let's see if this beast might be on its way to correction.

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  2. @Rock

    " I took a course in college (yes, I went to college, too)(although you'd hardly know it) called "History from the financial perspective" or something like that, It's been a long long time, which absolutely blew me away. It affected me far more than the courses I took on the Bible and Koran.

    That course removed all my skepticism, and also most of my deep-seated religious beliefs."

    I'd love to read the textbook for that course.

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  3. @Emmanuel117

    I think most of my books and papers from school went away during my divorce. More than 30 years ago. But I think I still have a Bible, if you're interested......

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  4. @Wolfstreet:

    On the 3LB, if we get an SPY close below around 125.90, we have the start of a trend reversal. After that, because the run up took so much time, the trend reversal will be very easy to continue with very small drops in price.

    Being full of Bull, I'm hoping for good AA report today, but I'm worried because SCHN's report missed expectations by a significant amount.

    I remember a couple of earnings seasons ago, I bet against the trend of the tape and lost money. this earnings season, I'm just gonna follow the rules, lower highs and lower lows will execute my stops, if the SPY shoows a reversal trend, I'll just follow that by trading the VXX.

    Which has nowhere to go but up.

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  5. Barry R and Peter Greene posted a warning to their clients to take 1/2 off the table, and buy back in on a pullback.

    I'm watching the VXX and if I see a pullback, I think I might start a position there. It did pull back a little from a 2.22%. But this is all in the 1st 15 minutes, where everything is crazy.

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  6. @Rock,

    Good call by Cobra. Alcoa reporting and European debt issues.

    "what institutional investors think and why you listen to them". http://business.financialpost.com

    Citigroup survey of nearly 140 pension, hedge and mutual fund investors expect a gain of roughly 9% for the S&P 500....5% anticipate a flat to down market....Being a contrarian relative to the survey results over the past four years has no worked out well. 69% see U.S. dollar appreciating and gold below $1300 as oppose to higher".


    ICan

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  7. "Market plunge sparks violence in Bangladesh". http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business

    "Police fire tear gas to break up protests by investors after stock trading halted when prices went into freefall.....Prices of shares nearly doubled in 2010, encouraging a stream of new investors into the market".


    "Prices crubled after the market regulator and CB took measures to cool the market".

    "Cb had raised banks' cash requirement ratio from 5.5% to 6.6% rein in inflation and curb run away credit flow...".


    "Some banks have invested 75% of their deposits in the stock market against a ceiling of 10% and had been told to get back to the limit by Dec 30. This deadline has been extended to Jan.15".


    Laws, regulations and rules???????????????????


    ICan

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  8. And let the games begin. Of course, we'll learn nothing from the weekend's events, or the wrong things. What a sad, sorry spectacle everything's become in this country.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/10/us/politics/10politics.html?hp

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  9. And, funny, no tears from Boehner when discussing the incident. This from a man who cries about HIMSELF and HIS own life's struggles all the time.

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  10. Money laundering and causal(truthful?) response from a higher-up official in India.

    Every year, India hosts a conference for Non-resident Indians - basically to attract business back home.

    Over the weak-end, during such meeting, someone made a causual remark something like," India doesn't need foreign capital from abroad if they cah halt money laundering overseas". The govt. official's response was something like " money laundering happens in everycountry and it's not a big deal".

    I was reading about Revnue Canada ignoring 106 individuals whose bank accounts were found in the offshore tax haven of Liechtenstein. Nobody has been prosecuted and nobody has been fined.

    Who is back stopping real-estate in Vancouver?


    Laws are for little people.

    ICan

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  11. @Rock:"On the 3LB, if we get an SPY close below around 125.90, we have the start of a trend reversal."

    Thks for the update. Just to be sure: you're talking about a weekly SPY close there? not another timeframe?

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  12. Beautiful pics Manny - BRRRRRRR!

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  13. Looks like I brought a correction home with me - Austerity for all!

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  14. Interesting -

    Chevrolet Volt wins coveted North American Car of the Year
    USA Today - 2 hours ago
    As Drive On so boldly predicted, an elite group of 50 auto writers have chosen the breakthrough Chevrolet Volt as the North American Car of the Year.


    Let's see if they can translate that into sales though.

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  15. @I Can:"Being a contrarian relative to the survey results over the past four years has no worked out well."

    Maybe we can put it the other way: the odds that the contrarian view ends up working increase with each year it doesn't. :p

    Not being serious here though. I think I'm done trying to figure out a way to make use of contrarian vs mainstream opinions. I'm sticking with my tools.

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  16. @Thor: It was actually quite "warm" that week in the mountains, high 20's/low 30's, which are great conditions for skiing. We were actually overdressed a couple of days and sweating on the hill. When the sun is out and there's no wind, it's actually quite toasty, but I guess for a warm weather person that might not seem at that "warm."

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  17. @WS,

    "I'm sticking with my tools".

    Good idea! No blue print for investing/trading. Never works or else it would be too easy.


    ICan

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  18. @Thor: You mean "austerity for the Sheeple". Not "all". No sacrifice required for our betters. No sirree......

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  19. S&P ema(13) 1262.18. S&P low for the day 1262.18
    Ma(50)1257.

    ICan

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  20. @Jeff,

    "austerity for the Sheeple". Taxes and laws, too, for the sheeple!

    ICan

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  21. @jeff(10:44)

    Hot money flows from Asia. Money goes in a circle. From the Fed to Ems, and from those who can grab as much as they can, back to the West.


    ICan

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  22. Started a small test position in VXX.

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  23. @Wolfstreet

    Yes weekly, sorry.

    The point is to reverse the 3LB up trend, a really small downward move in price is necessary. I read in Minyanville that a really strong support point is around 125. That will keep the 3LB in the black (down ward trend).

    According to Kevin DePew, a Tom Demark follower, the weekly range low is 1260, with the high 1281. Frankly, I doubt we'll see the high of the range this week, but I'm thinking we might visit the low. He's saying there are weekly combo 13 sell setups on the S&P futures and on the NDX, as well as on Copper and Gold commodities.

    I don't necessarily subscribe to TD, but we *have* had a 22% run.

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  24. Apple's at a new high, you know, in case anyone's interested.

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  25. @Thor

    Yes, welcome home. I know I always feel best when coming home.

    But I wouldn't call this a "correction", at least not yet. I think what Dss is doing is a good idea to start a VXX position to hedge your longs. If you're not long, then carefully watch the VXX for higher lows. On the 60 minute chart, I see what could be a W formation with the right side higher, but the stocs aren't following it, so I tend to ghink it'll drop back to around 35, trying to make a double bottom. THat's just my guess, looking at the stochastics.

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  26. @Thor,

    Luck has nothing to do with it!

    We are at a make or break area, if we break out to the upside this afternoon (or tomorrow) then I'm out.

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  27. @greg,

    When isn't AAPL at a new high?

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  28. I am watching last night's high of 1268.00 es.

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  29. This little pull back from the new rally highs of last week might be all we get, or it could be the start of a decline.

    There have been negative divergences for months as well, but tops take forever to form.

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  30. Thanks Rock - yes, very glad to be home. Getting over the cold I caught now.

    Seems everyone is calling for an improved 2011 now - has QE2 even started in earnest yet?

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  31. Inside day going so far, consolidating inside Friday's range.

    Inside day in the ticks, NYSE and NASDAQ also.

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  32. @Thor: I feel your pain on the cold. Have had one for nearly 10 days now as well and can't seem to shake it entirely. Irritating.

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  33. @greg

    I'm thinking APPL will sell a lot lot of phones through Verizon.

    First, can you imagine what it's like to own an iPhone on a network that actually works?

    There's 10 million phones right there.

    Then 4G is launched.

    There's another 10 million phones right there.

    I'm thinking they'll sell 20 million phones before the end of the 4G rollout (a few months?).

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  34. That's AAPL. My fingers stutter a litttle.

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  35. My daughter is getting one through Verizon as soon as we can get one for her.

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  36. Interesting musings from Jeff Saut, especially about the 90 days of a buying stampede.

    Jeff Saut

    The call for this week: Herb Stein once remarked, “If something can’t go on forever, it won’t!” And, the current “buying stampede” is now 90 sessions long, making it the longest one ever recorded in my notes of more than 40 years. Combine that with many other “finger to wallet” indicators suggesting caution and I am currently just sitting. Indeed, sometimes me sits and thinks and sometimes me just sits. As the astute Lowry’s organization opines, “Our last short-term sell signal for aggressive traders was triggered on December 30, when the 14-day Stochastic Indicator dropped from overbought levels and crossed below its moving average. A conventional short-term sell signal, for culling selective stocks [from portfolios], was registered as of [Friday's] market close, when our Short Term Index dropped a total of more than six points from its recent high of 104."

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  37. I will be switching to Verizon next January when my AT&T contract is up. Have been with AT&T for over 10 years and although they aren't as bad as they used to be, their service is still way to spotty for me in areas that I frequent, one of them being CO.

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  38. Wow denise. 90 sessions. We remarked on that last week though, as I honestly couldn't remember the last big down day it was so long ago.

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  39. We will be switching from the much hated Sprint, our cheesy throw away phone from Verizon gets better reception than Sprint.

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  40. I don't always agree with Saut, but he has some interesting observations sometimes.

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  41. I'll be curious to see how Verizon handles the iPhones though - whether or not their network is going to be able to carry all that extra network traffic. We're going to get a couple of them as soon as they come out so I can let you all know if anyone is thinking about switching providers.

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  42. Denise - that is interesting, didn't know it had been that long since we had a serious correction. I'm still of the mind that we end up taking out the previous highs in the next couple of years.

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  43. Manny,

    Great article! More fleecing of the sheeple! Higher education is certainly not free of the profit motive! (as I write my spring tuition check)

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  44. Sprint is awful as well. My wife used to have her phone through them.

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  45. @Denise: Isn't that article amazing? That one guy has over $250K in UNDISCHARGABLE debt and very little work, mostly temp jobs. I'd venture to guess that he'll never pay anywhere close to that money back. How many others are in similar situations? Makes me feel fortunate I went to state school and school was cheaper back in the day. My parents paid half and I pad the other half with student loans that were paid off within a few years after graduating. I know some people who are still paying off their loans at my age.

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  46. Nasdaq taking out last week's highs.

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  47. Nice pro-consumer banking bill we had back then, let's tie our next generation to debts they can never repay!

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  48. @Denise: I'm waiting for the day that whole large swaths of people simply give up on paying their debts. Maybe that's already happening to some degree, albeit quietly>

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  49. The Microsoft exodus continues......

    http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/01/10/technology/tech-us-microsoft-muglia.html?hp

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  50. Saw "The King's Speech" yesterday. Best movie of the year by far. Great performances. True Grit was pretty good for it's genre, but The King's Speech was just superb.

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  51. Agreed Denise. We saw it on Friday night. Our little theater was packed.

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  52. Ugh, this is really ugly:

    Talk Radio Hosts in Arizona Reject Blame in Shooting

    "Steve, a caller on the Jon Justice Show on 104.1 FM, said Mr. Dupnik’s statements “showed him for the buffoon he is.” Later, a caller named Lee called the sheriff “a blithering idiot.” Caller after caller came up with their own colorful descriptions.

    In the incredulous language of the AM dial, Mr. Justice defended his show, and dismissed the notion that Arizona’s heated political culture served as the backdrop to the shooting or an inspiration for the suspect, Jared L. Loughner. "

    Welcome to America! Makes me want to take that nice spring break anywhere but Arizona!

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  53. Manny - amazing how quickly things can turn sour for these technology companies eh? Makes you wonder what the future has in store for Apple and Google. Where will they be 10 years from now?

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  54. @Rock. Thks for the clarification.

    I hope for you I'm wrong, but I'd suggest now is a good time as any to test the 1220/1230 SP500 area. We can get there fast, since it's only 3.3% south from where we currently stand.

    If I were inclined to trade anytime soon(which I'm not), I'd get long on that possible pullback.

    Anyway. GL Rock & All.

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  55. Climate of Hate

    "I remembered the upsurge in political hatred after Bill Clinton’s election in 1992 — an upsurge that culminated in the Oklahoma City bombing. And you could see, just by watching the crowds at McCain-Palin rallies, that it was ready to happen again. The Department of Homeland Security reached the same conclusion: in April 2009 an internal report warned that right-wing extremism was on the rise, with a growing potential for violence.

    Last spring Politico.com reported on a surge in threats against members of Congress, which were already up by 300 percent. A number of the people making those threats had a history of mental illness — but something about the current state of America has been causing far more disturbed people than before to act out their illness by threatening, or actually engaging in, political violence."
    ------------------------------------------------
    But there is no evidence what so ever that this right wing hate speech has anything to do with this surge, nothing at all!

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  56. @Thor,

    Thanks! I know you like your iPhone and she is really anxious to get hers before she goes back to school.

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  57. We had Sprint a couple years back and we could not wait to get rid of them, almost to the point of paying the awful termination fee. (In fact I would have been money ahead)

    My wife's job required a phone that only Sprint serviced in our area, so we made the switch. I double checked and confirmed the estimated monthly cost, they were consistantly about 20%, there cosumer services sucked and I had to double check every bill for errors, more then often there was an error, so I would call said sucky customer service.

    We have Verison now and they have done what they said they would.

    Mangy Mutt

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  58. @Denise: Pretty predictable response though, isn't it? I mean, we're talking about people that are basically incapable of any introspection whatsoever. The absolute certainty is stunning.

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  59. PK nails it today.

    "Where’s that toxic rhetoric coming from? Let’s not make a false pretense of balance: it’s coming, overwhelmingly, from the right. It’s hard to imagine a Democratic member of Congress urging constituents to be “armed and dangerous” without being ostracized; but Representative Michele Bachmann, who did just that, is a rising star in the G.O.P."

    Bachman is as cuckoo as they come.

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  60. Portugal next eh? That was pretty quick.


    LONDON (MarketWatch) — Portugal remained in the spotlight Monday as Lisbon fought intensifying speculation that it would be forced to become the third euro-zone nation to seek a fiscal bailout due to rising borrowing costs.

    News reports over the weekend and on Monday said the Portuguese government was under pressure from European Union partners to tap the rescue fund established by the EU and the International Monetary Fund in hopes such a move would quell the ongoing turmoil in European sovereign-debt markets.

    Portugal has continued to insist that it won’t need aid but a key test looms on Wednesday when the government attempts to sell between 750 million and 1.25 billion euros ($936 million and $1.6 billion) of three- and nine-year bonds.

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  61. @Thor,

    They are doing this one or two months apart, the outcome is the same but they are dragging out the bailouts so that they don't roil the markets all at once.

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  62. Yes, she is, Denise. Certifiable. Worse than most people think. I hear she may be weighing a run for prez. LOL. That would be awesome and horrifying all at once.

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  63. Good one from Hendry

    http://pragcap.com/hendry-china-remains-a-black-swan

    Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer and co-founder of London-based Eclectica Asset Management LLP says the world is underestimating the risks in China and believes that GDP creation has overshadowed the lack of wealth creation in the region. This makes China one of the greatest risks to the global economy. Hendry also provides a broad set of views in this excellent interview on Bloomberg:

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  64. Not a fan of forced Higher EdJanuary 10, 2011 at 2:42 PM

    Mannwich (1:35) - I believe college education entered into a bubble a couple years ago and that eventually it will pop, leaving millions of people with a degree they can not utilize and a huge debt they can not discharge.

    Not everyone deserves or should be expected to get a college degree, they are very useful in certain fields, but do nothing to counter balance a desire to achieve and life’s experiences. However just as with the housing bubble, people are being told they need to get a degree and the only way to get on is to get into debt.

    We have the highest unemployment rate in decades and no foreseeable increase for at least 7 years. We are entering into a corporate climate where companies are more willing to hire some who is currently employed then someone who is papered, at the same time we have more people getting (not earning) degrees then ever before.

    Many companies will also check an applicants credit score before hiring them. With high debt and no work history, there is a good chance the applicant will have a lower credit score.

    The fiercer the competition the lower the standards, if class rooms are full of students that are only there because they were told a degree is the future, they have little to no incentive to learn. However the schools also know if they expel a marginal student, that student will just go to an easier school. This makes marginal students weak students and great students into marginal ones (That is only a generalization)

    Human nature also dictates that when we (Again a generalization) are knocked down repeatedly we tend to lower our own standards. So the 23 year old who has pie in sky dreams of what a college degree with get them will eventually give up hope after being told NO numerous times. And will eventually settle on lower paying jobs, which will of course not reflect good on the people who are better suited for those jobs.

    Anyway I am no fan of the current and unnecessary push for higher education, as all it seems to be doing is robbing from those who do deserve and are willing to work for that education, while at the same time robbing all students and their families with huge debt that in some cases may never be paid back.

    Mangy Mutt

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  65. Agreed Mutt, but the problem is that young people are told they have little to no chance to make a living without a degree, which is at least partially true in our country that doesn't seem to value anything other than white collar work now.

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  66. Quality of education in the public universities, at least here in CA seems to be getting worse as well.

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  67. Taibbi's Griftopia's second entire second chapter is devoted to Greenspan is an AMAZING read on many levels. Check it out if you are so inclined. Couldn't put it down.

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  68. Thor - That seems to be exactly what is happening.

    Just like during the housing bubble, the quality of houses went down, because there was no way to keep up with demand without cutting corners.

    Today, there are so many people on the higher education fast track that there is no way for colleges to offer let allown adhere to a set of high standards.

    Eventually people will realize there is no cost benifit in getting a degree and colleges and those who legitamitly deserve a higher education will suffer.

    When people figure out they are going $100,000 + in debt and loosing 4 + years worth of working income to get a piece of paper that may (But probably wont) help them get a "better" job. They will start to realize it may be better not to get that paper.

    People will stop going to school.

    Can you imagine parents who went to school and got into huge debt, on the hopes they will provide a better life for their children. These parents will probably not have better paying jobs but will have been paying there undischargable debt for years.

    They will still owe tons of money, but now their child is ready to go to college.

    What are the chances those parents will encourage that move?

    Mutt

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  69. 94% Of The S&P 500's Performance In 2010 Was From Gains On Just The First Trading Day Of Each Month

    And now for today's stunning mutual fund first of the month-day statistic: David Rosenberg notes that "134 points of the 143 points that were racked up in 2010 occurred in the first trading day of each month. That is truly remarkable ? 94% of the entire year boiled down to 12 sessions. And what do you know? 2011 started with a 1.1% pop and has sputtered since." Has trading for humans only been relegated to just 12 times a year when mutual funds invest their previously month's capital allocation in the stock market? Statistically, the trade is to go long at closing on the last trading session of any given month, hold long through next day's closing, and short the remainder of the month.

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  70. Saw that one Denise. Doesn't that in some sense likely prove these markets are being manipulated higher? How is that even possible in a "normal" "real" functioning market?

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  71. "Trade War Coming, Warns Brazil". http://www.ft.com/

    "Finance Minister told Ft that Brazil was preparing new measures to prevent further appreciation of its currency, the real...this is a currency war that is turning into a trade war".

    Rhetoric or real threat?

    Every nation loves the good side of inflation. Every nation wants to be an exporter!

    ICan

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  72. India trying to bring Inflation down.

    "Govt. exempts sugar from import duties". http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20110111/biz.htm

    Until Mar. 31, 2011

    ICan

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  73. I heard a lot about inflation in the UK as well, if I remember correctly they were forecasting about 3% for 2011 and worried it would be higher than that because of the increase in VAT

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  74. First week back - my least favorite part of vacations :-/

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  75. @James(Mutt):


    Here is cool way to see world weather:

    http://worldwind.arc.nasa.gov/download.html


    ICan

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  76. "Why David Rosenberg loves the U.S. dollar".

    Report-on-business/globe and mail video

    Irish debt problems are coming to forefront again in March - elections in March and if opposition wins, they may choose to default. So for a short time, dollar will rally. He doesn't think bonds are in a bubble.


    ICan

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  77. ICan - Thanks I am downloading it now and can hopefully take a peak at it tonight.

    I use Google Earth weather, it can be pretty good, but a couple months ago you mentioned the winds coming out of China and into India and I could not get anything off of Google.

    Thanks

    Mutt

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