As the year comes to a close here is our final link fest.
Dead Soul is a Debt Collector
India and China: Pushing Back
Save the Date
Viet Nam: Online Gamers Elude Crackdown
A True "Japan Inc" Could Be On The Way
The Last Roll of Kodachrome developed
Netflix: Time to Hit the Eject Button?
Ignore Expiration Dates
Floyd Abrams Whizzes on WikiLeaks
Justice Department Seeks Tougher Derivatives Rules
Here's to a new year
ReplyDeleteThere's not much to fear
whether it's up or down
we'll still be range bound
"When everyone's a contrarian ". http://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/
ReplyDeleteHat tip comment at cobras blog.
Re, AAIP bullish sentiment being all time high.
ICan
India's got plenty of sugar. Why is some hedge fund still hoarding?
ReplyDelete"Sugar import tax of 60% to be levied from tomorrow as supply beats demand". http://noir.bloomberg.com/news/regional/india.html
ICan
"cashing in on consumer trends for the year ahead".
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/managing/morning-manager/cahing-on-consumer-trends-for-the-year-ahead/article1850193/
ICan
This is well worth a read.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67046/robert-c-lieberman/why-the-rich-are-getting-richer?page=show
My little SLV play looking perky.
ReplyDeleteHappy, prosperous, 2011 to Rock!
ReplyDeleteIt's now past midnight in Singapore!
ICan
@Todd,
ReplyDeleteI like it!
I just broke away from the party to check in, thanks, ICan.
ReplyDeleteHappy new year to you all! See you Monday. Figuratively.
Rock Happy New Year, I hope you have a great time at the party.
ReplyDeleteMutt
"January on average is not good month for equity investors". http://www.timingthe market.ca/techtalk/2010/12/31/tech-talk-for-friday-december-31st-2010/
ReplyDeleteSeasonality and the market. Consumer staples go down in Jan.
ICan
Happy New Year from Alexandria everyone!
ReplyDeleteSorry I haven't been in touch - we missed the bus accident in Aswan by one day. Spent four days on a cruise up the Nile without internet. I'm sorry to have worried all my friends and relatives but it has been blissful being disconnected from the world. I can't remember the last time I went this long without knowing what was going on in the world!
Happy New Year, Rock!
ReplyDeleteGreat to hear from you Thor. Glad to hear you're safe. What a terrible accident.
@I Can,
ReplyDeleteAAII Sentiment Ratio
This chart is available by clicking on the Market Gauge trading link.
@Thor,
ReplyDeleteWe were all worried but glad that you are safe.
It's been slow around here but things will pick up next week.
Have a great time on the rest of your vacation.
Happy new years Rock and Thor;)
ReplyDeleteSee you in 2011.
Little TLT perk today. Nice.
ReplyDeleteFrench MSM are all over the current political crisis in Ivory Coast. As a refresher:
ReplyDeleteFrench lawyers back laurent Gbagbo
The UN has recognised Mr Ouattara as the poll winner, but Mr Gbagbo claims he is the victim of a French-led plot.
UN human rights monitors estimate that at least 179 people have been killed in the resulting political standoff, many of them in attacks by Mr Gbagbo's forces and allied militias, and world powers have demanded he step down.
Now, 2 famous French lawyers, one of them a former foreign minister no less, have come to Gbagbo's rescue. Who's lying? Who really won the elections ? Which French (and maybe other international) interests hide behind this masquerade ?
Don't know, but it gives us sheeple another peek at the mountains of dirt behind the scenes. Disgusting.
Happy New Year everybody!
ReplyDeleteDan
I hope everyone has a Happy New Year later this evening! Off to dinner soon with friends.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year from France!
ReplyDelete1h30 into 2011, nothing new to see here.:)
Happy New Year everyone!
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year to all!
ReplyDeleteHappy, healthy 2011!
ReplyDeleteFrom Canada
Manny,
ReplyDeletein another post, you were looking for last year's S&P predictions. I was able to find this -- I think this is complete:
http://andytsgang.blogspot.com/search/label/SP500%20predictions
I calculated the absolute differences on the high & low S&P predictions and ordered them:
ReplyDeleteHigh Low Abs. diff
lovethegoldtrend 1340 990 98
qqqqtrader 1298 946 100
Emmanuel117 1220 920 132
Matthew 1170 950 152
Todd 1200 900 172
HopeImWrong 1240 840 192
cv 1235 840 197
dss 1200 875 197
Mannwich 1165 895 212
Colin 1250 750 272
Squid Eater 1202 790 280
72bat 1188 770 314
McFearless 1158 764 350
AmenRa 1190 690 392
bergsten 1250 625 397
I-Man 1078 777 417
Wershovenist Pig 1100 750 422
Andy T 1050 760 462
leftback 1188 550 534
Patrick 1200 500 572
Dave Theory 1188 503 581
TexasRadio 1080 600 592
mcHappy 1080 550 642
KC 1100 480 692
Onlooker 1000 560 712
Average 1175 743 354
Actual 1262 1010
My first comment in a blog was
ReplyDelete---------------------------------------
Low 973
High 1492
January 11, 2010 6:49 PM
----------------------------------------
My second one
Thank you for the welcoming words.
Is something different than optimism.
To me rational thinking is not what move decisively markets it's our guts (or fat cat's guts).
So the message that people were receiving since March is that the market is a good buy.
Of course our minds are restless due to the impending full blown crisis;but in another level we are becoming more comfortable because this thing looks like it's holding water, not getting too comfortable, meaning the wall of worries is always present but good enough.We all know that is coming down but it never happens so from a fat cat perspective is lame being left out, and when they are in,the need of a greater full requires not making too much waves so everything looks placid and safe for we the sheeple and this usually takes longer than we expect.
And only when 1500 is at reach is when we are going to feel that probably we can get back on track.so 1300 and 1400 is safe to get in because we are almost out of the woods, right?
Guys you are doing an excellent job since before the crisis in 08, i salute that and I'll keep following you.
January 12, 2010 12:44 AM
And Thor made a better prediction than mine that same day in the comments section too.
ReplyDeleteDon't know if someone else was left out, I think not.
So for this year I need to do a better job. But helicopter Ben is gonna covered my back.Right...right?
Dan
Thank you Steve for your work!
ReplyDeleteSo Thor should be in the podium with the top 4 or 5 performers.
Me instead... (turning and walking slowly back to the alley kicking an emptied soda can) should clean that foggy crystal ball.
Dan
We also need to add:
ReplyDeleteWes 1222 666 (556)
Thor 1400 1000 (400)
Dastro 1492 973 (519)
Harry Wanger 1200 870 (330)
DL 1175 743 (432)
If we missed anyone else please let us know.
Steve,
ReplyDeleteThanks for finding and posting the original predictions.
oooohhhhh, my head.
ReplyDeleteI will never never never drink brother Jack after single malt again. If they run out, I promise to just stop.
Since my post on reits on 12/22, we have the following data:
CLI outperforming by .01
DLR outperforming by .03
GOOD underperforming by .003
HCP outperforming by .02
LRY outperforming by .002
PSA outperforming by .01
PSB outperforming by .001
SNH outperforming by .02
VNO outperforming by .01
VTR outperforming by .01
No barn burners here. I'd have to call the REITs basically flat for last week. But I will continue to watch them.
As a comparison, my attempted short JRCC outperformed by .02, and PAAS outperformed by .03.
Again, outperforming means outperforming the S&P 500. I am using a 5-day period, so these numbers are for last week.
On 12/18, I did some research on all my charts and found some of the weakest and strongest stocks. The weakest were defined by a trend lower on the 3LB chart. For my list of “outperformers” I am looking for a pullback before entering in this UUA market. Looking at last week, I think there may be some opportunities. I have put together the list, organized the same way as before, with the weakest first, and the strongest last. Each has it’s relative performance to the S&P listed. I’ve tried to indicate which ones I think may be ripe to watch for a possible entry. Here they are:
ReplyDeleteDuring the measurement period, the following list of stocks outperformed the S&P by .02. Here’s what happened last week:
SBNY pullback .02
CMI INTU MTH CPB PCG pullback .01
MMM HON EMC PPL EXC D ALEX AVY FULT tiny pullback
ADBE FLR SRE CMI DD BLK tiny outperform
RAX WY EWD outperform .02
EWT outperform .04
ECH we had our pullback to -.04, and we’re on our way back up now. Too late.
MOT we had our pullback to -.02, and we’re on our way back up now. Too late.
During the measurement period, the following list of stocks outperformed the S&P by .03. Here’s what happened last week:
CMC it pulled back to -.06, and it’s just started up. This is a candidate for investment. Looking at the 60 minute chart, I see a possible W formation starting with right side starting a higher low.
VMC we had our pullback to -.05, and it’s just started on its way back up now. Might look for an entry on this one.
DECK pullback to -.04. Looking for the start of a W formation on the 60 minute chart. Hasn’t started yet.
MHK pullback -.03 still pulling back.
RYL KFT GES pullback -.02
CAT CA pullback -.01
CL ANN tiny pullback
WAG outperform by .06
SLX we had our pullback to -.03, and we’re on our way back up now. Too late.
During the measurement period, the following list of stocks outperformed the S&P by .04. Here’s what happened last week:
OLP pullback to -.05. Not starting a W formation on the 60 minute chart yet.
BWS pullback to -.04. Not starting a W formation on the 60 minute chart yet.
BID pullback -.01
ORCL LEG DKS SD Tiny pullback
SD ECL BHI tiny outperform
MTL outperform by .01
JBL GRMN outperform by .02
TSM it had its pullback to -.04, and it’s on our way back up now. Too late.
continuing....
ReplyDeleteDuring the measurement period, the following list of stocks outperformed the S&P by .05. Here’s what happened last week:
ARO pullback -.02
ESV Tiny pullback
IPI outperformed by .03
TEX MON outperform by .04
During the measurement period, the following list of stocks outperformed the S&P by .06:. Here’s what happened last week:
LULU pullback to -.04. Not starting a W formation on the 60 minute chart yet. This is one of my upscale retail “I like it” stocks.
NUE pullback -.02
WFT tiny outperform
HCP outperform by .02
R outperformed by .03
MT it had its pullback to -.04, and it’s on our way back up now. Too late.
EROC it had its pullback to -.07, and it’s on our way back up now. Too late.
During the measurement period, the following list of stocks outperformed the S&P by .07. Here’s what happened last week:
NIHD we had our pullback to -.03, and it’s just started on its way back up now. On the 60 minute chart, it has formed W with the right side higher than the left. I wish I had looked at this one on the 28th. Take a look at this one, it’s a perfect example of what a well-formed W can do for you.
JOYG Tiny pullback
STLD SCHN tiny outperform
IRM SLE outperformed by .03
During the measurement period, the following list of stocks outperformed the S&P by .08. Here’s what happened last week:
HOTT has pulled back nicely, to -.01. at it’s current 6.28, It is nearly at the huge buy price of 6.10.. I’m going to watch this one, maybe look for a W formation where the right side is higher than the left, for an entry.
During the measurement period, the following list of stocks outperformed the S&P by .09. Here’s what happened last week:
TX outperformed by .02.
X tiny outperform
CAN I must have mistyped.
For the 10% and up, JOE had a tiny underperform.
PATR underperformed by .02. A real nice pullback. But its volume is too low for me.
CIEN outperformed by .03
Sorry Denise
ReplyDeleteWhen I saw your numbers I have to seat with a paper bag in my mouth and then laying in the dark with a cold compress in my forehead,then I realize that Steve put the absolute difference regarding the s&p low and s&p high as the final performance of each participant.
You put in the third column just the difference between a participants low and high but didn't compare to the s&p.
-------------------------------
"dss said...
We also need to add:
Wes 1222 666 (556)
Thor 1400 1000 (400)
Dastro 1492 973 (519)
Harry Wanger 1200 870 (330)
DL 1175 743 (432)
If we missed anyone else please let us know."
---------------------------------------------
Take Thor as an example with his round numbers 1000-1400.
s&p low 1010
s&p high 1262
So the absolute difference is:
10 points on the bottom 1010-1000=10
138 points on the top 1400-1262=138
And the third column result
10+138=148
So in this case Thor is in the 4th spot not bad ha!.
Please correct it for posterity, or ask Steve.(We have a reputation to protect you know).
Dan
Dan,
ReplyDeleteThanks. All this math makes my head hurt.
Wes 1222 666 384
Thor 1400 1000 148
Dastro 1492 973 267
DL 1175 743 354
New Rankings:
ReplyDeleteHigh Low Abs. diff
lovethegoldtrend 1340 990 98
qqqqtrader 1298 946 100
Emmanuel117 1220 920 132
Thor 1400 1000 148
Matthew 1170 950 152
Todd 1200 900 172
HopeImWrong 1240 840 192
cv 1235 840 197
dss 1200 875 197
Mannwich 1165 895 212
Dastro 1492 973 267
Colin 1250 750 272
Squid Eater 1202 790 280
72bat 1188 770 314
McFearless 1158 764 350
DL 1175 743 354
Wes 1222 666 384
AmenRa 1190 690 392
bergsten 1250 625 397
I-Man 1078 777 417
Wershovenist Pig 1100 750 422
Andy T 1050 760 462
leftback 1188 550 534
Patrick 1200 500 572
Dave Theory 1188 503 581
TexasRadio 1080 600 592
mcHappy 1080 550 642
KC 1100 480 692
Onlooker 1000 560 712
Average 1175 743 354
Actual 1262 1010
Hope I got the math right, Dan. I will post these on the other thread also.
ReplyDeleteHow India Avoided the banking crisis
ReplyDeleteNo country nor system is perfect; certainly not India's. But this is an interesting view on how regulation actually works - and that human greed left to itself (to be it's own watchdog no less), will lead to bad outcomes. Contrary to dogma that has washed over the American psyche the past few decades - ironically those countries with the greatest lack of regulation are those being pole axed the hardest. Just coincidence I am sure. Both extremes (little regulation or massive regulation) generally lead to bad outcomes; certainly there must be happy mediums.
Thanks, Dastro, I looked at Steve's numbers and didn't immediately understand how the third one was calculated, so your explanation got me on the right track.
ReplyDeleteSo in conclusion, I'm looking to start positions in NIHD, CMC, and VMC.
ReplyDeleteI will be watching closely DECK, OLP, BWS, LULU, and HOTT.
I would very much like to invest in HOTT. I really like it's name.....I mean you gotta love to say:
I'm in HOTT
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