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Monday, December 13, 2010

Manny Mondays: Merry "Bifurcated" Christmas

Morning from snowed in Minneapolis! So why does this market and economic recovery feel even less "real" to many people than the last one? Well, for starters, take a look at who's benefiting the most from this so-called "recovery". It's largely not the middle and lower classes, which make up most of the country's population. No wonder why many people are in such a surly mood right now, even in the face of a surging market and apparent economic "recovery", and in some cases, an even worse mood than the last "recovery" from '03 - '08 that left a lot of them behind then as well.

My premise has long been that we are in the midst of an extremely "bifurcated recovery" and economy where we find the "haves" doing very well again, and even better than ever in many cases, while those in the middle and below largely continue to struggle with stagnant (or no/low) wages. Well, it looks like others are starting to come around to this point of view as well. Welcome to the party, folks. In Sunday's Washington Post, Yian Mui describes how this very thing that I (and others) have theorized is playing out with a vengeance: Economic recovery leaving some behind this Christmas.

This holiday season, those two worlds have been thrown into stark relief: At Tiffany's, executives report that sales of their most expensive merchandise have grown by double digits. At Wal-Mart, executives point to shoppers flooding the stores at midnight every two weeks to buy baby formula the minute their unemployment checks hit their accounts. Neiman Marcus brought back $1.5 million fantasy gifts in its annual Christmas Wish Book. Family Dollar is making more room on its shelves for staples like groceries, the one category its customers reliably shop.

"When you start to line up all the pieces, you see a story that starts to emerge," said James Russo, vice president of global consumer insights for The Nielsen Co. "You kind of see this polarized Christmas."

It seems that things are just downright peachy again in the upper strata of our country's wealth continuum, as the wealthy, after a brief bout with what's known as a conscience, no longer feel guilty about flaunting their wealth in every way possible:

The divide is evident in retailers' sales. Sales at luxury stores open at least a year - a key measure of retail health - plunged by a monthly average of 9 percent last year, only to skyrocket 7 percent so far this year, according to industry analysis. Discount stores eked out a 0.5 percent gain a year ago and are up just 2.6 percent this year.

So putting this into context with the recent tax cut "compromise" reached by the Obama administration, how ludicrous (and immoral, if you ask me) do the arguments look now about extending tax cuts for the very people who seem to be doing better than ever?

67 comments:

  1. Great post, Mannwich. Thanks.

    I think we all go through a period of reflection, feeling for people who are less fortunate than we are. The holidays seem to heap that on us, at least, on me.

    So I will continue to do what I can, helping my family first, and people less fortunate that I when and how I can.

    The IRS limits how much you can give as a percent of your AGI. Beyond that, you don't get any credit. It's time to fix that problem so people can give what they feel, not what the IRS limits.

    See

    http://www.irs.gov/publications/p526/ar02.html#en_US_publink1000229802

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  2. Rock,

    Check your gmail. You are scheduled to post on Wednesday.

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  3. @Manny,

    Great post. It is obvious that the economy is recovering, but that doesn't mean that our people are recovering. Corporations have record profits many are multinationals that do not depend solely on Americans buying their products. OTOH, about 90% of the working population are employed (lots of discouraged workers are not counted) so there is some demand in the economy, even if it is just to replace that pair of shoes, (made in China) or buy food.

    I suspect that we can go along for a long time with a bifurcated economy; that is the norm for economies historically. This middle class standard is really a post WWII phenomena, and it might have seen it's last days in America especially when so many continue to vote against their own self interest, and the rich and corporations control the wealth and the politicians.

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  4. Morning all! Great post Manny! Wil read when I get back into LA

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  5. I just received a rare email from Amazon, pushing their Kindle for "only" $189.00. They must have tons left to sell if they are pushing it via email.

    Amazon has not made a new high (yet) in this rally that started on Dec. 1.

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  6. @Denise: "People"?! What are those thingys? And, remember, under the law corporations are now "people" too, and I would argue have more rights (and definitely more power) than real, live "people".

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  7. @Denise: I bought one of those Kindles for my wife for Christmas. It's my only gift to her. She's a voracious reader and has kind of hinted in the past at how great she thought these e-Readers were. We try to limit ourselves to one gift to each other and spend mostly on our nieces and nephews, as well as a different family that we sponsor here in the TC every year through a local charity.

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  8. My little SLV play looking perky this morning.

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  9. @Denise: Do you have my weekly post on 12/27 covered? I won't be able to post that day. Out of town. I will be able to post next Monday, however.

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  10. @Manny,

    I know about it now. :-) Thor is also going to be gone from about the 22nd on, but I need to get a handle on all of the dates that need covering.

    We might be doing some open thread days if there are too many openings during the holidays.

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  11. @Manny,

    The Kindle looks kinda cool, let us know how she likes it!

    We are long past big Christmas giving and we scale back the "celebration" more every year.

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  12. @Denise: I told you about via email a number of weeks back! Maybe you forgot? :-)

    Should I also put it in the calendar?

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  13. I could probably put up something short for that day, maybe an open thread topic or something VERY short and sweet. Will be in CO, so maybe I can whip something together the Sunday night before?

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  14. Maybe even put some pictures up of the mountains, since I'll be skiing the week before in CO? Anwyay, I could probably put something up for the 27th but it will likely be short. Don't want to divert my attention from spending time with the family.

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  15. I put your dates on the calendar. Don't worry about taking time from your family to post.

    During the holidays I do not imagine there will be a lot of participation here so short posts/open threads will be posted.

    Also not updating everyday will work as well until after the New Year.

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  16. In the future, let me know if I should just put out of commission dates into the calendar or if there's a better way to do this to ensure coverage. That might make it easier, as we can't expect to remember emails from weeks ago, I'm thinking?

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  17. @Manny,

    You could always put up something to be scheduled that will run but I would not worry too much about it. If I do not see something scheduled, I will post something but I don't expect much traffic during that time with everyone's holiday schedules.

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  18. Yes, putting your dates on the calendar would work as well as a reminder.

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  19. I'll give it a shot, Denise. I just know how crazy it can be with family (and kids) around the holidays. Just keep an eye on the posts in the queue. I just might be able to get something in there for the 27th.

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  20. Manny,

    It is really no problem if you can't get the time. Your (and everyone's) real life is a thousand times more important than this blog.

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  21. On the flip side, UUP not looking "UP" today. Getting smacked hard.

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  22. It is pretty clear that the market will continue on it's upward crawl until the end of the year.

    There is absolutely no fear of anything bad out there and we have a 11.24% gain in the S&P (as of 12/10) YTD.

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  23. Bonds are up so it would make sense that the dollar would be going down.

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  24. I couldn't resist. I had to nibble a little short on JRCC at 23.50.

    I may hate myself tomorrow for fighting the fed, but the double top is just toooooo enticing....

    @Dss

    OK, I gott Wednesdays.

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  25. Follow Us Not into TemptationDecember 13, 2010 at 12:56 PM

    Rock - It is kind of hard not to want to go against the grain here.

    I have learned don't fight the Fed and follow the tape and even though things "appear" to be on more solid ground, the temptation is still there.

    Personally I think when/if things break there will not be to much left to support the market, but the big question is if it does break WHEN will it happen.

    Best of luck to you on that trade.

    Mutt

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  26. Thanks, Rock. Your posts are always full of interesting ideas!

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  27. @Rock,

    Are you talking about the top from 09?

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  28. Interesting Manny. I guess growing disparities is a worldwide debate. So is the morality of the wealthiest, especially in times of crisis. I don't have a detailed knowledge of France's current picture, but as an example, for the period 1998 to 2006, the top 10% of French saw their income rise twice has fast compared to the other 90%.

    Also, on the markets:don't know where we're headed anymore. I'd thought today would be a big down day.. oh well. Happy Christmas bulls...

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  29. Speaking of immorality (or least lack of ethics and A LOT of greed), credit cards back to looking for riskiest borrowers. Of course they are. They don't make much money on "deadbeats" who don't carry a balance.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/12/banks-desperate-for-profits-seek-out-risky-credit-card-customers.html

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  30. Can things get any worse for the O-man?

    Health Care Law Deemed Unconstitutional by Federal Judge

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/14/health/policy/14health.html?hp

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  31. Interesting poll. I'm sure that our captured fearless leaders won't listen. AGAIN. And they fake like they don't know why most people are downright surly about things and their "leadership" in general?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bloomberg-poll-finds-88-americans-says-bonuses-banks-should-be-banned-or-taxed-50

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  32. There's NO CRYING in politics!! LOL.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/13/view-john-boehner-crying_n_795916.html

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  33. Mannwich - Maybe things will get so bad for Barak that he will just up and quit.

    I wonder what that would do to the stability of the world...

    Mutt

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  34. @Mutt: Maybe, but all he has to do is wait another two years and he's free and clear to do speaking engagements and make big bucks. He's going to be a one-termer unless the GOP puts up a truly bad candidate (which is, of course, VERY possible).

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  35. US Banks on the hook to PIIGS for over $350 Billion. All of these bailouts continue to make sense. One giant ongoing bailout of the banks and the elites (one and the same).

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/easter-egg-out-bis-us-banks-are-hook-piigs-over-350-billion

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  36. Sad Sure Surprised NO!December 13, 2010 at 2:31 PM

    Mannwich - I have not read the PIIGS post yet, but some how the premis of that post is just not very surprising.

    Kind of like this Wikileaks and news that will bring down the banks.

    WHAT is it that we do not already know that the banks have done, that will make anyone say "That's Shocking"

    The fact that they continue to get Benny Bucks is what is so sad, cuz we the American people are going to have to pay for their mistakes.

    Mutt

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  37. But what continues to amaze are the bonus levels for these bankers at banks that would be insolvent without the bailouts, and likely still are in many cases. How is this basically not stealing (or looting soveriegn or the peoples' coffers) the free money and paying themselves with it?

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  38. Manny - here's my question: Who are the idiots (beside the central banks) who keep buying up all of this sovereign debt? Investors and commercial banks under the assumption that they'll be bailed out if the investments go south?

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  39. Has to be, Thor. And who are they ultimately being bailed out by? The very Sheeple, I mean, people who will then be asked to sacrifice things that they/we value, basically so that bankers never have to take a loss, but only reap the gains due to our stupidity, I mean generosity, of allowing this to happen. Are people simply too lazy to connect the dots here or do they not want to know the truth of it, preferring to the delude themselves of what's really happening?

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  40. It's basically stealing or looting the people's money, laying all of the losses on us, cutting things that we value and weakening our bargaining power in the jobs marketplace, and it literally makes me sick thinking about it. If I was a tin-foil hat conspiracy-theorist, I would begin to think this is all by design.

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  41. Wall Street Set for Best Two Years Ever Thanks to Bailout. Nice.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/13/wall-street-bailout-profits_n_795699.html

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  42. Thor,

    Could you please put your dates on the calendar for your vacation? I'm trying to figure out what needs to be covered.

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  43. Meanwhile, gas prices about to breach $3 here. At $2.99 the other day, the highest I've seen since '08.

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  44. Manny - I paid $3.50 this morning :-/

    I think the people in charge have successfully brainwashed half of the population - they've managed to politicize almost everything. Rules for bankers, environmental issues, reigning in the excesses of Wall Street. All are now untouchable, any attempts at change is painted as Liberal Socialism.

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  45. Good article on Japan

    http://www.truth-out.org/reconsidering-japan-and-reconsidering-paul-krugman65796

    How, then, should we regard a country that has 5 percent unemployment, health care for all of its people, the lowest income inequality and is one of the world's leading exporters? This country also scores high on life expectancy, low on infant mortality, at the top in literacy, and low on crime, incarceration, homicides, mental illness and drug abuse. It also has a low rate of carbon emissions and is doing its part to reduce global warming. In all of these categories, this particular country beats both the US and China by a country mile.

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  46. More

    Krugman was commenting on Japan's so-called "lost decade" of the 1990s, when the Japanese economy was considered sluggish and underperforming. But let's look at some of the Japanese metrics during that time. Throughout the 1990s, the Japanese unemployment rate was - ready for this? - about three percent. Not 30 percent, that's three percent: about half the US unemployment rate at the time. During that allegedly "lost decade," the Japanese also had universal health care, less inequality, the highest life expectancy and low rates of infant mortality, crime and incarceration. Americans should be so lucky as to experience a Japanese-style lost decade.

    Puts a whole new spin on the "growth at any cost" meme.

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  47. @Jeff,

    Thanks for the post.

    Snow shovelling for me with a tractor. Not as much as you though.

    Baby production outsourced?

    "Assemblying the Global Baby". http://online.wsj.com/

    I Can

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  48. @Thor,

    They use any excuse to put their spin on the facts, endlessly repeating that that Japan had a lost decade makes it seem so much worse than it obviously was.

    Throw in the effective tax rates for Japan and you can see the effects of a non-insane tax policy.

    Japan Income Taxes and Tax Laws

    As long as those in charge can keep pulling the wool over the sheeple's eyes, they will. Like the meme that the health care in Canada, England, etc. is rationed and terrible.

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  49. @Dss

    For JRCC, yes, it looks to me like it's at or near a 2-year top, and can't break out. On the weekly chart, we have 2 attempts to push over 24 and can't seem to make it.

    On the hourly, we're forming an inverted W with the right side lower than the left, so if we get below 22.36, I'm thinking this may set the tone for a retracement to 21.35 on Turnaround Tuesday.

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  50. @Dss, but with the Fed pushing up up and away, I'm not looking for more retracement than 21.35. I will set stops accordingly.

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  51. @Denise: Not to mention how terrible life is in that socialist, commie-pinko country Germany. We don't need to actually do what works. We're "special" as Americans, and will do it our own way.

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  52. @ICan:
    Do you see the repeated W being formed by PAAS and SWC? With the right side higher than the left?

    Turnaround Tuessday might be the right day to get in.

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  53. Total absence of institutional activity as there are no tick extremes so far today.

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  54. America's transformation to part-time worker society:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charting-americas-transformation-part-time-worker-society-following-6-straight-months-full-t

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  55. Bear Stuff:

    2011- a record number of mortgages coming up for reset?

    Bond rates up despite POMO?

    Higher int. rates bad for equities and mortgages and housing.

    Fed day Tuesday, and inflation numbers, and options expiry.

    I Can

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  56. @Rock(4:02)

    Will check it out. Thanks


    I Can

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  57. ICan - damn that's right. I can't believe it's been over three years already! I remember seeing all those charts with the resets in 2007 when this all started.

    Wonder how many of those folks have 1. already foreclosed, or 2. already re-financed.

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  58. This article is fascinating on many levels:

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/12/13/105197/some-think-its-a-time-to-revisit.html

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  59. Manny - not at all surprised. We see this all the time with the outwardly or in your face religious types. Too much suppression I think, and the rock solid belief (at least on the surface) of a "correct" moral way to live one's life. It's what gives us our Larry Craigs, Jim Baker, Ted Haggard.

    The more these people shout about the sins of others, the more crooked they are. Truly good and righteous people don't need to advertise their goodness, never mind trying to force their own sense of twisted morality on others.

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  60. The three hour round trips to work and 30 sq. meter living facilities outside of the cities sort of suck, but the universal health care and long livelihood in those conditions are fantastic. It's a model to strive for.

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  61. Ethnocentrism The tendency to believe that one's ethnic or cultural group is centrally important, and that all other groups are measured in relation to one's own. The ethnocentric individual will judge other groups relative to his or her own particular ethnic group or culture

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  62. Something to look forward toDecember 14, 2010 at 1:21 AM

    Japanese Worker = I look forward to my very own 30sq house, do you guys have room for pets? Maybe a goldfish or something.

    Mangy Mutt

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  63. Thor - Gee I have never experienced people who expouse the virtues of what they believe God should be like to be hypicritacal.

    BAHAHAHAHA - Yea right, it seems like the only arguement they can muster is "God said so"

    Hmmm Really....

    Mangy Mutt

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