Hello everybody.
Just a lesson that I learned from the market: do nothing when the market is trending is difficult.
The thought that we can do more and more not necessarily means more efficiency.
Past Thursday I thought to cover a little more my exposure buying Spy puts.Wery wery smart from my part.
Yesterday night I thought that China could affect the equity market with their decision.
I ended up selling at the second failed test to breaking support this morning.Ended flat just by pure luck. Yes, just a half percent movement on that news, so out again of puts and waiting for the period between dec 29 and Jan 9-12.And swearing to do nothing.
There are several situations that make me a little uneasy about a clean movement up in the very short term, but having not experienced any meaningful correction since September makes me not to try to hold my breath even the opposite is commonly assumed, (that if went up is going to correct in some similar proportion) and at that moment early March 2009 populates my brain.
So yes, do nothing is tough, overtrade could be the answer to calm ourselves down but if I do something like this I wouldn't have learned anything from the market in the past 4 months.
Checking between Dec 29 and Jan 9 (or a little more, the 12 th) with a keen eye.
The 6 and 7 could give a hint of future price action, will see.
I hold SPPI, EK and BSX and a few calls (as an insurance) from MBI, so no change at all.
Good luck.
Dan
@Dan,
ReplyDeleteThank You for sharing your thoughts. Here is someoneelse who agrees with you. http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
"Intermediate-term: Could be wave 5 up to SPX 1300+ Pivot Top could be around 1/05 to 01/12".
FXI is down, so may be market is looking to the U.S.
ICan
@Dastro:
ReplyDeleteAgree with ICan. Thanks.
From MarketScience blog:
January is a good month.
For the years 1930-2009, the average monthly return for January was 1.45%, and all months was .76%. But they go on to point out that January has underperformed since 2000 (they show a graph labelled December, rather than January, so I’m not sure exactly what they mean). But the point of their verbage is historically January has been good, and lately it’s been below average. I can’t access my trading tools from here so I can’t give you a relative performance for those years, but it would be interesting.
I’m thinking without some cataclysmic event, January is looking like it will continue December’s performance. So I’m looking for January to be just another up, up and away month.
Nothing goes straight up, so I‘ll be looking to play some short side leveraged tickers for the retracements. Especialy VXX, I like that one. I’ll be looking carefully at the Jan 4-7 price action, because that’s the right number of days after the CBOE .67 low. And again at the 12-13 performance, as you say. But I’m looking at UUA until then, when I’ll tighten my stops
@ICan
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting that website again. I know you've posted it before, but I just forgot to follow up on it.
Just curious: have you put up a hit/miss ratio on this guy? I did for Barry R and Peter Greene, and found they were about 50% right.
@Rock,
ReplyDeletere Cobra, I didn't keep any stats, but I followed him since last fall, and he is good!
Usually he posts twice in the evenings. Once right after the market closes and then later.
Comments section is good too. Lot of people posting their thoughts and charts all day. Less traffic now due to holidays.
May be I should keep a hit/miss ratio on the websites I follow. But, it seems like it's all about the U$D.
CAD/USD over par.
ICan
Rock - Home prices drop and consumer confidence is low, yet the market just kind of shrugs it off. At this point I agree with you it will take a cataclysmic event for there to be any meaningful correction.
ReplyDeleteAnd like Dan was saying this is the time to just sit and watch, I did ok with VXX, but my thinking is when (if)this market breaks, there is not a whole lot of anything under it.
Mutt
Here's yet another interesting article from Peter Atwater.
ReplyDeleteHe often forgets that the market is rather like the Titanic and slow to change course.
Unless there's an iceberg off the starboard bow.
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/year-end-review-2011-forecast-economic/12/28/2010/id/31895?from=ameritrade&camp=syndication&medium=portals
Well, it's time to try my short with JRCC again. It looks like it's topping again, and on the 60 minute chart, we've got a lower high. So I'm short, and intend to lose no more than 100.
ReplyDeleteMy stop's at 25.14 so we'll see what the god of the algos is thinking today.
Thks Dan. Seems our AT community shares quite a homogeneous view for 2011: nothing interesting happening on the markets (range bound). Zero surprise to the upside, with a near-zero possibility (ie a "TPTB won't allow THIS to happen, right?"% chance) that something very bad happens and we break to the downside.
ReplyDelete==
OT, nothing important:Here's the Top 5 most active governments in requesting access/suppression of data to google. See? there are some sectors where my place remains a top competitor!:p
Country Number of requests
USA 4287
Brazil 2435
India 1430
U.K. 1343
France 1017
---
6th => Germany 668
(Google states these are "requests from government agencies around the world to remove content from our services, or provide information about users of our services and products"
Transparency Report: Government Requests)
Seems my first attempt @21:40 has been eaten. Second comment attempt then
ReplyDelete==
Thks Dan. Seems our AT community shares quite a homogeneous view for 2011: nothing interesting happening on the markets (range bound).
Zero surprise to the upside, with a near-zero possibility (ie a "TPTB won't allow THIS to happen, right?"% chance) that something very bad happens and we break to the downside.
==
Also, good luck with the JRCC trade rock.;)
==
OT, nothing important:Here's the Top 5 most active governments in requesting access/suppression of data to google. See? there are some sectors where my place remains a top competitor!:p
Country Number of requests
USA 4287
Brazil 2435
India 1430
U.K. 1343
France 1017
---
6th => Germany 668
(Google states these are "requests from government agencies around the world to remove content from our services, or provide information about users of our services and products"
Transparency Report: Government Requests)
FU Blogger. There. Eat that one if you like. :D
ReplyDeleteoups.. sorry. my 2 previous attempts had been eaten, was getting a little impatient at blogger.
ReplyDeleteshort comments are better then
Thks Dan. Seems our AT community shares quite a homogeneous view for 2011: nothing interesting happening on the markets (range bound).
ReplyDeleteZero surprise to the upside, with a near-zero possibility (ie a "TPTB won't allow THIS to happen, right?"% chance) that something very bad happens and we break to the downside.
ReplyDeleteAnd good luck Rock with your JRCC trade.
ReplyDeleteI-Can
ReplyDeleteSorry about your friend.
Yes I went to check the blog looks really nice.
If the optimism reach high levels by April-May due to an improvement in employment or a nice run in equities for instance, the market performance after that should be really poor.
Quite different will be if we keep several months consolidating/ slightly correcting till spring. Now that will be something because the move up should be substantial afterwards but honestly I don't think that is going to play in that way.
I expect the up move in the first months and then the drop.
Dan