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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Pendulum

In the Social Security Act of 1934 an impressive amount of people got a new contract with life, in the sense that meant that government sometimes represents or have at heart people's needs.

It started 60 years before with Otto Von Bismark in Germany where for some unusual reason started blossoming the wild idea that people deserve a compensation (covering pensions and unemployment) for a life of work after they are too old to work or at least their bodies slow down or if their jobs are gone.


Getting a new contract with life in the very sense that ideals of something better for people got inside the realm of the possible.
Yes, we are still too close to the dark middle ages where royalty derived from God himself the mandate to rule humans and appointed a whole group of people that just became the owners of the land and by that in no small measure of the population's destiny.

Similarly a kind of aristocracy of money got the leashes of the country here. But they blinked in 1929 when they were at the zenith of their power and miraculously they retrenched and a bloodless revolution occurred in the hands of one of their own, president FDR who sided with the little people.So what speaks not too bad about the robber barons (still controlling vast parts of the economy) is that mayybe out of a sense of embarrasment or even shame allowed the new president to create mechanisms and laws to prevent in the future similar situations

Something that we kissed goodbye several decades later in the Clinton presidency by the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act (not separating wall street and main street money anymore so wall street could help itself more liberally so to speak) among other things.

That moment is a clear example of not letting a crisis go wasted.From Roosevelt point of view.
The untold suffering for years by huge amounts of the population rendered ineffective any kind of counteraction with a chance of success by the moneyed elite.

Just to set the record straight moneyed elite means a very small group of the wealthy to me, just the robber barons, if you get my meaning.
Those that don't have any conscience's objection at all to opress, enslave and discard fellow humans from the production stage in their companies in the name of progress and letting government to deal with that.And cry foul if they have to pay taxes in a mesure that allow the nation to take care of the infirm, something that is coming very soon by the way.

A Sam Waltonish approach where the encouragement is to have employees go to the hospital as a way to make more profit.

Of course had the workers owned a sizable amount of shares in the company would have been a "neutral" so to speak decision; increasing profits to shareholders and himself.

There lays the crux of the matter and the central question: What is fair? where is the line in the sand? because on the other hand we got organized labor when... ahem "get" for the people more than the fair share and companies go bust like the GM case of course their power is or was a lot less.

So in 1934 it was determined that a fair share was to provide some kind of net to people who without participating in the benefits got the short end of the stick.And things doesn't look too different today, do they?.

But the S.S. Act of 1934 planted the seeds of what is known as the great compression, roughly it was a wealth transfer (high taxes one of the most evident results) to the masses from the rich.Where the country succeeded in establishing broad new standards about what was a fair and decent deal revamping the American Dream. The sense of what is just.

And honestly I think that this is the course that we are going to embark again. Some catalyzer should be in place but I can not fathom it yet.
But the situation after a decade of stagnant income (the need to sometimes compensate with debt the lack of income in the form of flashy plastic cards) and unresponsive governments for the little people needs; looks like is going to snap up.

Having in the other plate of the scale lavish profits for a very few who gradually became more owners of everything than in the last 80 years, makes me wonder if this time will be different or same like before a pervasive sense of shame is going to make the robber barons retreat allowing to reset what is fair in the "social contract" again, because they are still very much alive, aren't they?.

Dan


Yeah, when the market is boring I become philosophical but this weekend I'm going to start checking in detail and see if something new arises. Still in ACAS, EK, MBI.

Good luck everybody.

60 comments:

  1. Thanks, Dan! Thoughtful points to ponder. The tax cut plan that is going forward is one of the most irresponsible pieces of legislation that I have seen in a long time. Irresponsible in that the wealthy and those doing very well in this economy will not be asked to sacrifice 3% more of their income, money that will be irresponsibly added to the debt, year after year after year.

    Of course, the robber barons and their minions in congress who only care about the deficit when their taxes will increase, are setting up a drastic cut in all social programs because "we can't afford all of these lazy people anymore". Obama's sell out is breath taking, we always knew that the Republicans were going to continue the wealth transfer until there is nothing left.

    As long as the shiny distraction that is the stock market keeps going up, people think that the world is ok, until the hollow shell collapses.

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  2. Thank you Denise
    Yes indeed.If is anybody on their own a nation collapses because anybody infirm sick or with some kind of problem is not worth to mount a mechanism to help them out.
    It reminds me of the Spartans and their decision (don't know if it's true I wasn't there) to throw defective kids from a cliff just to relieve the burden of the whole.

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  3. @Dastro:

    Thanks. Very well thought out post. I have only one question: Where's Robin Hood when we need him?

    @Dss: yes, you are right about the tex cut legislation.

    Just remember, Congress members, most of them, and their staffers, fall into your "wealthy and those doing very well in this economy" category, and that they also vote themselves their own pay raises.

    Could we really expect anything else from them?

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  4. @ICan: PAAS is off 1.35%. On the 15 minute chart, we have a W forming but we don't have a higher high on the right side of the W. Means: Be careful. If I wanted to get in, I'd be watching the 60 minute stochastics, and if we get a higher low later today, that is, higher than around 38.36, I might consider entering.

    Matter of fact, I think I may do just that. Starting a position is silver sounds like a good idea. I've already started NEM and will add today on this pullback.

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  5. @Dan,

    This story of robber barons is happening in every country. An entitlement culture. Sure they give themselves pay raises way above inflation rates they, intentionally keep low to rob seniors dependent on fixed incomes.

    In everycountry from Greece to the U.S. to India, the Citizens are rich yet the Treasury is empty. How can that be, UNLESS MOST PEOPLE ARE FREE LOADERS!


    I Can

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  6. Exactly Rock, which is why I think the Dems on this issue are all too happy to play the foil. I'm starting to believe that this is all Kabuki theater. There's a reason why politics is called "Hollywood for Ugly People".

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  7. @Rock,

    Thank you for sharing your silver picks. I am thinking more about picking the metal itself.

    But, I am confused to the underlying long term trend of the market.

    I'll talk to you later. Got to go.

    I Can

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  8. Retail up, up, and UP.....

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/retail-sales-increase-08-in-november.html

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  9. Rock,

    Your JRCC is doing quite well!

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  10. @ICan:
    I couldn't agree more with your confusion. This is not an investor's market, it is a trader's market. There's no hold-n-hope here, positions need management.

    but look at Mannwich's 10:28. Tomorrow, golds will be up.

    Pass has recovered now and is up .1 or so. As we say, snooze you lose.

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  11. Too true about the millionaire legislators, media pundits, lobbyists, banksters, and various members of the oligarchy. The media is loathe to point out that those in charge of passing the laws do so to their and their benefactor's benefits.

    Tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires creates jobs! (Jobs for themselves and everyone else can go suck on a lemon.)

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  12. They take them down in a fake sell off in the afternoon only to take them up again today.

    The problem is this: when the sell off finally begins no one will believe it.

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  13. This is good. The lunacy of just about everything has one good side to it. Makes one realize AGAIN that everything is so tenuous and to take NOTHING for granted. Enjoy life and be present in what you're doing at all times.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/14/middle-class-strife-left-_n_796196.html

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  14. Flight to quality not happening. Shocking. Not. Bubble is back, folks. Thanks Benny. We can all be rich, apparently.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/barclays-quant-market-commentary-rip-flight-safety

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  15. Morning all! Great post Dastro! We can only hope that the pendulum swings back to a fairer distribution of wealth. I thought we might have had the opportunity for that in 2008 but neither political party seems to have gotten the message. If anything, the politicians in DC seem to have gotten the opposite message and are once again lurching the company even farther to the right.

    My fear at this point is that we are swinging farther and farther to the right each year and, with all pendulums swings, the snap back is going to be just as hard and fast to the left as it did to the right.

    I would also argue that we're already seeing this in many parts of our society. Less severe drug policies, gay marriage, etc. Society itself is (I think) starting it's swing back to the left. We'll see if politics follow, and if so, how soon!

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  16. In other words, dash for trash is in full throttle.

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  17. Which would explain some of the strength of the silver market; if JPM were net short they were getting killed on their shorts.

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  18. Muni market getting crushed again today.

    Manny, TLT is down to 92.01.

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  19. @Thor,

    When times get hard enough for enough people there will be a swing back to the left. But it should swing back to a sane country, with sane deficit reduction, re-regulation and tax policies. Not sure what America will look like before that happens.

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  20. Case in point -

    n an interview with The Birmingham News, Bachus made it clear why he opposed stricter regulations for banks in the wake of a huge financial crisis largely caused by Wall Street excess and a lack of prudent regulation. In Bachus’ estimation, the government’s role is not to protect consumers and the wider economy through regulating financial activity, but to simply “serve the banks”:

    Bachus, in an interview Wednesday night, said he brings a “main street” perspective to the committee, as opposed to Wall Street. “In Washington, the view is that the banks are to be regulated, and my view is that Washington and the regulators are there to serve the banks,” he said.

    According to the article, Bachus later tried to clarify that what he meant was “regulators should set the parameters in which banks operate but not micromanage them.”


    Freudian slip? We definitely aren't going to have any more regulation anytime soon.

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  21. I saw that, Denise. I wonder if it will breach the 88/89 area that held before?

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  22. Agreed, Denise, but things will apparently have to get MUCH worse for that to happen, meaning far more unemployment. Right now, the unemployed here are somewhat invisible, at least partially due to their own shame, largely due to our culture that is hard on personal failings, even if it's due to bad luck.

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  23. He said that, Thor? Wow. Well, that IS the truth, isn't it?

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  24. Manny - apparently he did. He's trying to say his words were taken out of context. Kudos to him for being one of the few politicians to actually come right out and tell us the truth for a change.

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  25. Cramer getting skewered (AGAIN) at ZH for ill-advised Best Buy call:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cramers-latest-wipe-out-call-buy-best-buy-december-17-44-calls-total-loss

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  26. Thor,

    Do you have a link to that?

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  27. I think that there are more retailers in trouble than just Best Buy.

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  28. The bottom performers in XRT:

    CWTR
    MW
    PSUN
    KR
    ARO
    LTD
    SWY
    AEO
    GCO
    URBN
    CHS
    KSS
    SVU
    JWN
    ANN
    ROST
    M

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  29. Cramer is an idiot and has said that he would do that show for free. Anyone who actually does what he suggests is even a bigger idiot. The stock is in technically weak position, regardless.

    Cramer's ego is larger than the Grand Canyon.

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  30. Agreed, Denise. Many are just papering over their problems at the moment, but apparently turning a profit is no longer required when you're a big publicly-traded company. I know of one that hasn't in over 10 years and is still limping along.

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  31. Violent protests over Berlusconi's "victory". Apparently our political system isn't the only corrupt one. Far from it. LOL.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/14/berlusconi-no-confidence-_0_n_796379.html

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  32. Thor,

    That article is a good example of why this country is headed into the toilet. With guys like these in charge who think that the government exists to serve the banks we are all screwed.

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  33. Deutsche Bank's target for the S&P in 2011 is 1550.

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  34. "Now that he’ll be taking the Financial Services committee gavel, Bachus has telegraphed his intention to weaken some of the bill’s most important sections, including derivatives reform and rules meant to prevent banks from making risky trades with federally insured dollars."

    Great. Further weakening of the what regulations are left.


    Banks want to make risky trades with federally insured dollars? No problem.

    This is why I so despise the conservative hypocrites that run this country. They rail against government when it serves their political needs, while serving as the bank's enablers.

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  35. Wow, interesting!

    Police: Las Vegas Casino Chip Heist May Total $2MBy THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
    Published: December 14, 2010

    http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/12/14/us/AP-US-Bellagio-Hold-Up.html?hp

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  36. Man, trying to talk my closest friends out of their addiction to debt is so frustrating. "but I need it to live the life I want to live". grrrrrr

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  37. So much snow in Southern Ontario, Sarnia area. Major highway basically shutdown, and Military was called in to rescue stranded motorists.

    Snow even in Middle East- Syria and Lebanon.

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  38. Thor - Fortunatly your friend has you to try and talk some sense into them.

    Far too many people actually believe that the deserve to have everything they want in life and if they can not afford it, they can charge it.

    I remember as a kid having Lay-A-Way it might take a couple months to save up and get what I wanted, but in the end it was mine.

    I think that along with my grandmother's insite has helped to keep me out of debt (Except house & student loan) And just the freedom of knowing I have extra money at the end of the month is worth more then a fancy car.

    Best of luck to you with your friend, hopefully they will open their eyes soon.

    Mangy Mutt

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  39. New 52-week high for COST (Costco).

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  40. The drumbeat gets a little louder on N. Korea. How long before we take a shot at them too?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/world/asia/15nukes.html?hp

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  41. Mutt - I gave up debt for good not long ago. Best decision I ever made. It's amazing how much more money you have every month when you don't have any interest to pay!

    Manny - I read an article not long ago saying China would never allow the two Koreas to reunite as they would not want a country so large, with such a strong tie to the US along so much of it's border. . .

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  42. That's two days in a row the rally has evaporated. What gives?

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  43. Wow - unemployment for people under 30 in Italy is over 30%. Wolfie - do you know if it's similar in France?

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  44. Reflections day for me.

    A family friend from India, 34 years of age, married, no kids, chief anaesthelogist in a regional hospital in Ontario, died from car accident injuries. His parents worked so hard to help him where he was in life. Seems like parents donot have life outside their kids' lives.

    In Asia, parents-children relationships are so intertwined.

    He has a sister, divorced with a teenaged daughter.

    How do you comfort his parents, wife?

    The family is extemly well-off here and in India. No amount of wordly goods could comfort them now.

    I Can

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  45. ICan - I'm sorry to hear that :-( From my personal experience with grief, I think the best thing you can do for them is let you know that you care, and that you are available should they need anything.

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  46. @I Can,

    So sorry to hear about your friend. Terrible thing for any family to have to go through.

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  47. I Can, I am sorry to hear about your friend, to be so young and have what sounds like a good life in front of him. Then to have it come to such a sad and quick end, there is nothing anyone can to to prepare for that kind of loss.

    No matter what the culture, grief is differnt for everyone, but I think Thor hit the nail on the head, just let them know you are there for them no matter how long it takes. And when it is a parent that looses a child like your friend, it will take a life time.

    I am truly sorry for their loose and truly hope I NEVER see the day I have to bury one of my children.

    James (Mutt)

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  48. Hilarious blog - Apparently one of Wall Street's favorite shills (Megan McArdle) has a whole blog devoted to correcting her numerous articles.

    I rarely read her, but it's fascinating how someone so poorly qualified for a job can continue to be so highly compensated, especially given her "libertarian leanings"

    http://agonyin8fits.blogspot.com/

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  49. Sorry to hear about your family friend, I Can.

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  50. @Thor: But it fits the current times, does it not, given that so many people who've been wrong about so much are still highly paid to be wrong about even more truly important things going forward. Being right is so passe. It's all about marketing. ;-)

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  51. Manny - no shit! I've been reading Salon.com's list of worst political pundits off and on for days.

    Apparently the benchmark for these guys is about as low as it is for economists! Institutional Mediocrity?

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  52. "I rarely read her, but it's fascinating how someone so poorly qualified for a job can continue to be so highly compensated, especially given her "libertarian leanings"

    How much do you think I really make?

    You'd be surprised.

    One gets what he pays for.

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  53. @ICan:

    I too am sorry to hear about your friend.

    It's true, if you're a parent, you get to live 2 lives: one yours, one your child's. I have 4 kids, and am truly blessed because I got to live 5 lifetimes.

    No time for sleep, though.

    My son was hit-and-run by a taxi a week ago. He's ok, but bruised up. My family seems to collect injuries by auto accidents.

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  54. @ICan: sorry about your loss. No words to give comfort in this kind of situation. Maybe time, and love, is all that can help.

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  55. Somewhat late, but thks Dan. However, "makes me wonder if this time will be different or same like before". The picture is quite different from the '30s. Most notably, we're now in the age of globalization, with both its advantages and drawbacks. Nations worldwide now share cheap products, but also cheap labor.

    Maybe we can think of a 21st century version of the "great compression": wealth transfer from the rich nations to the poor ones. Of course, "local" elites keep their wealth on the side lines. They're just watching

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