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Thursday, February 24, 2011

What Does This Mean To China?

Recent world events have had me thinking about what the future could possible hold for China in this "new" world we appear to be birthing.

One of the first things that comes to mind is inflation. China is currently bearing the brunt of much of the world's inflation and the rising price of oil is only going to make matters worse in this regard. Margins are already razor thin in China and manufacturers are having increasing difficulty finding workers willing to slave away for next to nothing. Can China handle any more inflation?

I've also been thinking about the many news stories I've read over the last couple of years on the ever increasing amount of world resources China has been gobbling up. What are China's investments in Northern Africa? Will the new governments be nearly as accommodating as the recently disposed despots? What if the people of these countries decide to take a hard look at the agreements made between their overthrown governments and China. What if they decide that because those resources were sold to China by a corrupt dictator, they are no longer valid? China is well known to have purchased resources all over the world with little to no benefit to the local people.

China may be furiously updating their military, but even in the most optimistic scenario, it will be quite a number of years, before China is going to be able to project it's power beyond it's own border to protect those resources in the need ever arises. With total US supremacy of the worlds oceans, could China even protect their international resource if they wanted to?

51 comments:

  1. Thor has a post but it was a draft so I am not sure if he wanted it posted yet so I posted this open thread.

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  2. Overnight low in the ES was 1293.50.

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  3. S&P500 not breaking 1307/1308 yet. http://www.tradermike.net.

    "Long term trendline support. Sep.'10, Dec'10 and yesterday.

    ICan

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  4. ICan,

    His chart of the SPX really shows how important this support is to the market.

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  5. Crap - did I get the day wrong again . . one moment!

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  6. There we go. Sorry about that guys! I'd scheduled my post but forgot to hit "publish". Post is up now.

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  7. I'm looking at the 16-18 week cycle timing for the market, and it's time to take a dip. It seems the market's been right-justified since before the 666 dive, so I expect the next down to be hard and fast. and withi9n 3 weeks or so.

    Looking at it from that perspective, I am trying to figure out how to set up conditional orders on TD Ameritrade. I'm trying to set up trailing stops and when those orders get executed then buy VXX and SDS

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  8. @Thor
    You thine YOU got the day wrong!! I had my watch fixed (sadly, it's not the one I had before customs confiscated it) and they set it for the wrong day. I overposted Dastro.

    Delete works well.

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  9. Thor,

    Great post. China is the biggest wild card going forward on so many fronts.

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  10. Does it really matter who is president or which party controls congress when the Generals are running the show?

    Another Runaway Army General Deploys Psy-Ops on US Senators

    The U.S. Army illegally ordered a team of soldiers specializing in "psychological operations" to manipulate visiting American senators into providing more troops and funding for the war, Rolling Stone has learned – and when an officer tried to stop the operation, he was railroaded by military investigators.

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  11. Rock - You and me both! These short weeks always throw me off. Five days of work compressed into four. NO problem :-)

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  12. A third negative day in a row, is this correction starting to grow legs?

    Oil hoovering around 100. Heard this morning on my way in to work that 2010 was the worst year on record for home sales. . . we're in recovery how?

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  13. Thor,

    No fancy snap back yet, but it remains to be seen what kind of correction this will be.

    There has been no urgency to the selling yet even though the volume has picked up.

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  14. down 90 - nice! A real correction!

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  15. @dss
    Hopefully, college-educated US reps would assume they will be marketed and spun.

    Especially Al Franken. That was his job, so I would assume he can see it in others.

    Anyway, I was spun a few times. It's really fun. Of course when your staff does all the work and presents the positives and negatives, th spinning doesn't matter.

    But wow, what a ride. Or i should say, MOM what a ride.

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  16. Rock - We'll be lucky if I get 40 today ;-)

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  17. Rock,

    I am sure that the senators are used to being spun or lobbied as that is part of their job - to listen to others. And I would guess that they would think that they would be immune to it or think that they have more control over their thoughts.

    And all of these congresspeople are concerned about the deficit and debt when this unwinable war continues to suck billions out of the budget every year?

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  18. Denise - but think of all the people who are employed in the War Trades.

    PS: That's NOT considered socialism!

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  19. Anyone think this mess in the middle east is going to do anything to ween us off our dependence on this region? OR better yet, our continued dependence on oil?

    Probably not, or at least probably not nearly as much as $5.00 gas will.

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  20. A surprisingly good article on the middle east from Thomas Friedman -

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/opinion/23friedman.html?_r=1

    “America, you have built your house at the foot of a volcano. That volcano is now spewing lava from different cracks and is rumbling like it’s going to blow. Move your house!” In this case, “move your house” means “end your addiction to oil.”

    No one is rooting harder for the democracy movements in the Arab world to succeed than I am. But even if things go well, this will be a long and rocky road. The smart thing for us to do right now is to impose a $1-a-gallon gasoline tax, to be phased in at 5 cents a month beginning in 2012, with all the money going to pay down the deficit. Legislating a higher energy price today that takes effect in the future, notes the Princeton economist Alan Blinder, would trigger a shift in buying and investment well before the tax kicks in. With one little gasoline tax, we can make ourselves more economically and strategically secure, help sell more Chevy Volts and free ourselves to openly push for democratic values in the Middle East without worrying anymore that it will harm our oil interests. Yes, it will mean higher gas prices, but prices are going up anyway, folks. Let’s capture some it for ourselves.

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  21. @SPX:Will ya let go of these 1300 already or what???

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  22. Among other warning signs, keep in mind that the too often discarded Mannwhich indicator started flashing red lights today, having entered its "out of town" zone.

    Historically, that's a VERY bearish sign.

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  23. Wolfie - that's right, I always forget about our Manwich Indicator!

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  24. We are approaching the overnight lows of 1293.50 ES. I am not sure many people expected the market to continue it's weakness.

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  25. @Thor: lol. very common mistake.

    Too bad we don't have the latest Hobo data also. Imagine the Hobo indicator at its all-time bullish levels also!

    Man, I'd move my whole retirement into FAZ right now!

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  26. Now back to reality, based on my scarce data, I'd just wait.:p

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  27. Don't know if I-man is around today, but we got a pretty good dump of snow over this way last night.

    I got up this morning to check on school closers and they are all closed today, so of course that means my son gets up yearly...Kids go figure.

    Mangy Mutt

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  28. Denise - I certainly didn't expect this correction to continue after three days. With no dip buyers?

    This definitely doesn't have the feel of a panic to it though. . . .not sure if that's just me though.

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  29. I agree with the article in principal, but that tax is so regressive, it will put extreme hardship on low income people who have to drive to work.

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  30. Now that was a beach ball bounce!

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  31. Thor - Granted our economy is driven by the use of energy and one of the biggest and cheapest means of energy is oil.

    There are a lot of other ways to get energy, but most of them are not as cheap or as reliable as people may think. If you have a gallon of gas you know how far you can drive and how much it is going to cost you.

    Nuclear and hydro can be pretty dependable sources of energy, but for the most part solar, wind and other sources are not dependable or cheap.

    But to impose a $1 a gallon tax on gas usage is rediculous as it will only hurt the poor(er) people who can not absorb that kind of burden.

    What happens when a family has to choose between keeping their family from freezing or starving?

    Mutt

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  32. Looks like the support at the overnight lows held. Might be positive into the close.

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  33. Huge volumes at or near the low of the day may mark a short term bottom.

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  34. Plus it is the failed policies of our governmental leaders that has caused the budget deficit to reach the levels it has. It is the Federal Reserve’s games that has caused money printing that is wiping out the middle and lower classes, to continue non-stop.

    It is our governmental leaders who have chosen to climb into bed with the Fed’s and listen to their pillow talk. Talk that includes saving the Too Big To Fail institutions that have helped to put millions of people into un-necessary personal debt. Debt that most of these people will never be able to pay off, yet the TBTFailers get a blank check from the Feds and our government, a check that was signed by those who are indebt, a check that is signed by the children and grandchild of those already indebt.

    Why should we pay higher prices for our fuel, to pay off a debt we did not cause nor will we benefit from and we already know they will never use the tax to pay off the debt, there is always a better reason to spend it and they will.

    I know real life is not always easy, but it really seems pretty simple to me – If you make x amount of money, you pay 7% of x and it should make no difference whether it is a corporation, small business, successful entrepreneur of kid right out of high school. Once you are 18 you pay a flat tax.

    Any and all profits of a corporation are paid by the end user, so if a company makes 1,000,000 they pay 70,000 no ands if or butts. If they are shipping employment out of the U.S. they should pay a premium an added premium on that, if they are caught lying or using off shore accounts they should be fined whatever taxes are due plus a 10% fine.

    I do not mind paying my fair share of taxes, but at this point in our history I really think the average person is over taxed. And if our leaders can not balance the budget and live within their means, then they should not count themselves as our leaders.

    Mutt

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  35. Now lets see if the next high on the daily/60min chart is higher or lower than the one from 2/18, and we will know quite a bit about this market...

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  36. That was one hell of a strong move off the low this afternoon, anyone else catch it?

    Jah guided the I...

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  37. However... "Turmoil in the Middle East is forcing oil prices higher. Europe's debt problems are far from over. Inflation jitters are spreading through Asia. And the US Federal Reserve will probably stop goosing the world's biggest economy" not me, the WSJ says it! AND that's just a snapshot from an article, list may go on (havent checked).

    Now, gimme those 1300 dammit!

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  38. Somone dumped SU today. Off over 4%


    ICan

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  39. Thx, Wolf.


    @ Thor

    From a few days ago...

    No, I didnt take the photo, another fisherman took it with some fancy shmancy new camera he got for Christmas.

    I think you're right about the HDR thing, but I'm not sure.

    I couldnt believe how awesome it turned out tho, and made it my screensaver as soon as I saw it.

    There was a very heavy frost that day, I think the gleam of the sun off of the frost really made it "pop".

    BnT complimented it as well, and he is quite the photographer.


    @ Mutt

    Yeah, woke up to about 4inches of snow this AM... beautiful. I'm sure for you, you're wishing the other idiots on the road were as used to the East side of the mtns as you are...

    Thinking about making a trip out to the East side pretty soon... would love to check out the Grand Ronde...

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  40. I-Man - my best friend plays around with HDR photography, very cool stuff. There are awesome videos done in HDR as well.

    I think Denise saw the move off the bottom this afternoon.

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  41. Thor,

    Good time to cover some trading shorts when you see a combination of high volume, and a test of a recent low, also we were getting too oversold.

    Bouncing on the trend line from the September lows is also a good place to look to cover shorts.

    Corey at Afraid to Trade link shows how the internals improved dramatically as well.

    Check of Intraday Internals Shows Make or Break for SP500

    And you know how I love my internal statistics!

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  42. Plus Corey makes some good points, this oversold condition should provide for a decent bounce, if it fails, look out below!

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  43. Meanwhile in Los Angeles. . . .

    Mutt and I-Man - stop sending us this stuff!! :-)

    Snow on the Hollywood sign? It's possible with cold storm rolling into L.A.

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  44. "Algos go wild - oil drops $4 in just over an hour. S&P rockets up to 15". http://www.fundmymutualfund.com

    "Amazing how all these HAL9000 algos move in concert (shows charts). We are but gnats on HAL's behind...".


    Food inflation is back up in India 11.49%( negative interest rates). JFW to set up Dunkin Donuts outlets in India( more sugar).

    http://www.tribunindia.com/2011/20110225/biz.htm

    ICan

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  45. @Denise, Jeff

    Another snow storm coming our way. Then rain next week. weird weather.


    ICan

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  46. ICan - no kidding. Strange here too. We never get storms this cold this late in winter.

    Those food prices are going to be going up up up for awhile it seems!

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  47. ICan,

    We are expecting 9 inches of snow tonight! I think Manny has left the building and is sunning himself in an undisclosed location that has sand.

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  48. @Thor,

    Food and gas are going up and up. We are paying $1.18/liter to $1.24 for gas even when CAD/U$D = 1.0182. Taxes!

    Fruits and vegetables are unreal. A cauliflour head for $2.99. Milk 4L bag for $4.47. Milk, egg, poultry farmers are "unionised" - meaning they control the supply side. They have quota system and the original quota holders are very rich - millionaires!

    Negative interest rates here too. All to protect the all-too-important-housing. Feel sorry for the old folks and people on fixed income. Older folks can not take risks and probably dipping into their capital to make ends meet. This is unreal.

    ICan

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  49. Ican - oh yes, I feel so bad for people on fixed incomes. Interest rates won't be coming up any time soon, the rest of the wheels would fall off this train wreck we call a recovery.

    I also think about these "generous pensions" everyone is all in a huff about with our public employees. Both sides are so hard set in their positions, neither wanting to make any concessions. When in reality, there's no way in hell these people are ever going to get anywhere close to their promised benefits.

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