Punk U.S. Oil Demand and Export Confusion
Food and oil prices chart, Food Prices and Stability
Pessimism on Egypt: The Democracy Promotion Fetish, Out of Egypt, WSJ: Egypt's Economic Apartheid, Egypt and Anarchy, Egypt's Revolt
Losses at Afghan Bank Could Be $900 Million
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Google's Trading Desk
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For posterity: Analyst Warns of 2015 Bank Crisis Amid ‘Upbeat’ Davos
Commentator's Disease
The Organized Crime Social Network
There are a couple great comments from yesterday, I-man and Dastro. Thanks eversomuch, guys.
ReplyDeleteI'm paying attention to what they both said. My opinion of history repeating itself is if it does, it's more a result of human nature perhaps a response to stimulus, rather than something I am able to predict.
I agree with Dss' statement. As I recall it was something like "when it happens, you'll see it in the news".
Thats why I like to encourage the observations and links to other's thoughts and conclusions, so I can read them, think about them, and see if I "see it in the news".
One thing I find interesting is that the S&P pullback in April coincided with the BP oil spill. I shorted BP, but not soon enough. At any rate, that coincidence is interesting.
So now my question is will the unrest and resolution in Egypt be as cataclysmic an event as the BP oil spill?
No. Egypt's economy is about the size of Louisana's.
If this is the second domino in a line of 10 or so dominoes, is it then as cataclysmic?
Maybe. Probably.
Might we see a bit of a pause as middle east countries start making waves?
Maybe.
Will we see a pullback when Israel gets involved and makes this a national security issue?
You bet.
Thanks, emmy, great link fest today.
ReplyDeleteDo you think that the Egypt disapproval was because of the American backed Murbarak?
ReplyDelete"Discontended within Egypt face power of old elites". http://global.nytimes.com
ReplyDelete"Cairo - A collision is shaping up between an old guard and Egypt's discontended over how fast and how deep the change will be".
Top military leaders were discussing steps to limit Mubarak's decision making authority and possibly remove him from the presidential palace in Cairo, Egyptian and American officials said".
ICan
@dss
ReplyDeleteThat and the Iraq War.
Great link fest Emmie! Keep in mind that if you polled Americans on thief favorable opinion of the US Government would also very low. Obama with a 50% unfavorable - and congress is at what? 80% disapproval?
ReplyDeleteI think a lot of folks in other countries can differential between us and our government. In this case, I'd have to side with the Egyptians :-)
WTF????
ReplyDelete"U.S. special envoy Frank Wisner ....said President Mubarak should stay in power to steer the transition". In response to the story that Egyptian ruling party politiburo(including Gamal) has resigned.
Here is the link and story via BBC.
"The politburo of Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party(NDP) has resigned en masse".
http://www/bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12374010
ICan
ICan - That's a travesty. We seem to do everything in our power to be on the wrong side of history lately.
ReplyDeleteEmmy,
ReplyDeleteLoved the Michael Lewis article. There may be little protest among the Irish, but you gotta love that old guy who carefully stored 2 eggs in his garage for 6 weeks, guarded them on the bus ride to a shareholders meeting, and chucked them square at the bank president from the 4th row.
Also am saddened that the Irish politicians have used the same discredited Hank Paulsen excuses for bailing out bank bond holders at 100%. American "Leadership", at it's best.
ICan - And you can bet the US government has as many tentacles inserted into the mess in Egypt as they can fit, desperately trying to steer this revolution onto a path that directly benefits us and our needs in the Middle East. Basically, "screw the Egyptian people, this is about us and our needs now"
ReplyDeleteICan - but . . .
ReplyDeleteThe White House is now openly pushing for replacing Egypt President Hosni Mubarak with a temporary caretaker government that includes the military and is applauding a decision by Mubarak’s son to step down as head of the country’s ruling party.
But a senior administration official said those steps weren’t enough - and suggested that Mubarak needs to take “additional steps” to quell the chaos in the streets of Cairo, which is threatening to sink Egypt’s already foundering economy.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/48894.html#ixzz1D74PymLg
@Thor,
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely!
Common perception among secular people of the East - from Middle East to India - is the "West doesn't walk the talk". The hidden agenda is - business - WallSt - sell more stuff. Most people think it's about oil and Isreal!
Look what happened to Kurds when Bush Sr. called them to rise against Saddam in 1991 without backing them up properly. They were gassed! Turkey's security came in the way.
Now, Isreal and others are raising issues with the Brotherhood. Good luck to the secular people. It's going to be a long road.
Ican
kayem,
ReplyDeleteThat Michael Lewis article is pure gold. Explains so much about the economic mess over there.
Thanks emmy!
On the topic of people in the middle east being able to differentiate between the US Government and it's people.
ReplyDelete9:21pm Interesting article, 'The Al Jazeera Moment', on The Star that highlights Al Jazeera's important role in reporting the latest news in the past weeks.
This has not gone unnoticed. Traffic to AJE’s live online streaming of its coverage has increased 2,500 per cent in the past week, with up to 60 per cent of that coming from the US.
I don't think it's gone unnoticed to the people of the Middle East either. The tidal wave of traffic coming into Al Jazeera is coming from the USA. They're reporting on that all the time, and that has to make an impression to those people.
We're not all right wing nut jobs like Sara Palin.
From New York Times:
ReplyDelete"West Backs Gradual Egyptian Transition".
"They are trying to kill what has happened and to contain and abort the revolution," said Hassan Nafaa, a Political Science Professor at Cairo University.
"These are cosmetic changes...President Obama better put presurre on Mubarak....America is going to create another Iran here.....AMERICA DOESN'T UNDERSTAND....PEOPLE KNOW IT'S SUPPOTING AN ILLEGITMATE REGIME".
ICan
BBC:
ReplyDelete"US disowns envoy comment on Hosni Mubarack" bbc.co.uk
Diplomatic gaffe? Or covering their ass.
ICan
I heard back from our tour guide in Egypt!
ReplyDeleteHI MY LOUD FRIENDS , HOW R U , I AM OK. BUT AS U KNOW NO WORK AS TOURISM IS GOING DOWN V SOON . SO IT IS GETTING V HARD FOR ME AS U KNOW IT IS MY MAIN JOP TOURISM
I'm so glad he's ok! A bunch of us from the group has stayed in touch and we've all been trying to get in touch with him. Hopefully we'll be able to help out somehow, he was such an awesome guide.
PS - I'm kinda as loud in person as I am online . . . and my other half is about twice as loud as I am :-O
ReplyDeleteThank you Emmy very educational articles.
ReplyDelete@I-Can
"...people knows it's supporting an illegitimate regime"
That's the main thing in my opinion about facebook and social media.It provided a window during formative years to a lot of young people all over the world.
The see how people live in other places what they do, vacations fun things probably lots of them have families or friends living in develop nations and inevitably they compare.
Being secular means that probably they don't want to blow Israel, probably they want freedom and maybe peace can have a chance, who knows.
Now regarding the lack of popularity of America overthere I doubt that they are thinking beyond Wall Street, the military industrial complex and politicians. And yes they don't trust "that" America because what they probably got, from an accounting point of view was:
Israel government instead of using 23% of it's GDP for defense cut it to 9%, because Mubarak was a guy that wasn't want more war with Israel.Peace 1979.
US giving to Egiptian military around 1.3 or 1.5 billions of dollars.
Rinse and repeat for 30 fucking years, and yes probably egiptians may have valid concerns about "that America".
Not having a rocket science degree doesn't prevent me from imagine that maybe just maybe what egiptians saw for 3 decades in their mind was that Israeli government save a bunch of money because of the peace treaty, pocketing a part and sending the remaining to "that America", and from here the money went to the Egipt ruling class through the military and part of it to beef up thair arsenal, not to fight Israel but to repress their own people if necessary to keep them quiet and scared, forcing them to mantain theit miserable kind of life 30 years.
Yes win-win situation for "that America" for Israeli politicians and for Egiptian ruling class, why bothered to advance democracy when things worked that smoothly.
Then you have social media, internet on one side, humilliations (90% dont hold title of their houses) and Bananita Ben flushing liquidity all over the map sending commodities soaring.
People over there just said enough.
I can imagine why they don't trust "that America" or their ruling class.
And now the ticking bomb started because the forces that move a country ground to a halt.The decay is going to happen fast and furious if on one side Obama flip flops on the "must change now" and that Mubarak think that have a chance to drag his feet for months getting time to absolve his cronies and removed evidence of looting.
If nothing change substantially and fast we are going to have other country fall in the hands of religious lunatics like Iran.
Dan
Hah! I know this is very personal, but I just have to share his last response (especially with Greg. I asked him if there was anything at all we could do for him or send him.
ReplyDeleteAGAIN THANK U V MUCH FOR UR GOOD FEELINGS. I FEEL THAT I AM HAVING MANY TRUE FRIENDS EVERYWHERE. SOUNDS TO BE FUNNY BUT V ONESTLY I WAS TRAYING TO FIND SOMEBODY TO HELP ME TO BUY AN I PHONE. BECAUSE U HAVE IT V CHEAP THERE . BUT NOW I AM CHANGING MY MIND. AS I AM GONA SAVE THE MONEY AS I DON,T KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON TOMOROW
Can you believe that? Country in the middle of a revolution and he wants an iPhone!
Wolfie - notice he didn't ask for a Droid ;-)
Rock
ReplyDelete"...My opinion of history repeating itself is if it does, it's more a result of human nature perhaps a response to stimulus, rather than something I am able to predict".
Yes, part of my prediction efforts are trying to manage to find correlations in the everchanging skies and translate it to the human range of activities.
The human range of activities is constrained.
For instance the sun have an incidente on the surface of the earth. We humans collected through milennia that energy that the sun sends through the photosyntesis process, we eat sun literally, and breath oxygen.
Another kind of beings at the bottom of the ocean don't eat sun (don't know what they eat) nor use oxygen, they managed to live using methane as far as I know.
So the sun had an important part in delimiting the human experience.It was even more evident in agricultural societies.
I start with the assumption that lot of that objects in the sky have an incidence over life on the surface of earth too.Why not? Why only the sun? The sun is the only one that we humans can "feel" and are able then to know that has influence on us.
Could it just be human bias? (to only think that something has influence on us because our senses are able to notice it).
What about the moon, doest it have influence too?
Maybe or maybe not.
Well is because of it's proximity it can be argued.
Is not relevant, the question stand has influence or not? some say yes some says not.I'm not too eager to spend time in the validity from a "scientific" point of view but I'll just put and example in my next comment that shows why don't have that interect anymore.
If we find two that have influence (sun and moon)
one because loves to spit funny things like heat and rays (sun) the other because of gravitational forces (moon) what prevents me to assume that we have a series then where you have two influencing why not to have a third too?
And the mechanics of the influence of this third one could be different than having heat and rays or proximity.Culd very well be for another reason (know from humans or not).
So this "signs in the sky" have to be adapted to the scope of the human range.
And to me that signs needs to be broken in readable patterns.
Will be like if people see something funny or unusual in the sky (from a human perspective) and think that is going to brinf exactly the same thing to the dwellers on earth.
This will be the hieroglypical approach.
Is just an omen a sign whole and complete in itself and is going to bring exactly the same crap to earth.(because almost always is when things start going bad down here that we humbled and start watching to the skies).
The approach or methodology that I'm trying to develop doesn't consider it a sign but a letter.And then combine to another one and another more and what I got is a word a new word that has the same root gramatically speaking similar mening but design or encopass a whole different set of events.
But has to designate cerain kind of activities that are inside the human range to have meaning.
So that part overlaps entirely with your view that humans make history repeat itself.
I don't talk about earthquakes predictions and a lot of crap because I don't have any experience researching in anything different than humans.
Is not easy but today after several decades maybe, just maybe I can stand a chance.
Dan
Thor the i-phone is a walkie-talkie in a war or in a revolution. :)
ReplyDeleteIt helps you know where the enemy stands.
ReplyDeleteDan - that's a good way to look at it. I'm going to send him one :-)
ReplyDeleteI think you have something to do with all that started happened over there :)
ReplyDeleteDan
People, regarding the example that I was going to post now, I realize I'll have the material for my next post so; would you mind waiting a couple days? Will be freshly delivered to your stand Monday night.
ReplyDeleteThank you
Dan - people keep saying that. Remember the volcano erupted in Iceland right before we went there. . .
ReplyDeleteI'll be sure to let you all know ahead of time if I happen to be traveling to your cities anytime soon :-)
Yes you have the gift to bring change really, better to put a GPS device around your neck,man.
ReplyDeleteDan
From the NY Times
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast/06military.html?hp
“...Recently, academics and civilian analysts painted a portrait of an Egyptian military in intellectual and social decline, whose officers have largely fallen out of society’s elite ranks,” the cable reports.
The cable quotes a retired general who says that military salaries have fallen far below those in the private sector and that “a military career is no longer an attractive option for ambitious young people who aspire to join the new business elite instead.”
That's another ingredient to the sauce.
ReplyDeleteDan
Another gem from the same article and the question lingers...whose your daddy?
ReplyDelete"...The cable says that the military nonetheless remains powerful through its wide commercial network, and that military-owned companies, often run by retired generals, are active in the water, olive oil, cement, construction, hotel and gasoline industries. The military also produces televisions — and milk and bread. In a move that made the military ever more popular, during food shortages in 2008, Mr. Mubarak called on the army to use its bakeries to bake bread for the civilian population".
We never saw the military when we were in Egypt, only the police were out among the public. Lots and lots and lots of police.
ReplyDeleteYes they do the dirty work dealing with the masses, the military usually has bigger fish to fry.
ReplyDeleteWere they scorned, tolerated or more like buddies type among the population Thor?
Dan
Dan
Dan - To be completely honest, they seemed like cops everywhere. They were stern, direct, but I never saw them acting aggressively toward the locals.
ReplyDeleteOf course 95% of the areas we were in were for tourists and I would imagine most of the cops we saw were there for our benefit and acting on their best behavior.
What I wonder is, where do they all live? There must be tens of thousands of cops in Cairo alone, they can't all live in the same place. Do their neighbors know they're cops?
What happens if and when Mubarak leaves and a new government comes into power. Do the hated cops stay on? They'd almost have to, I think one of the first thing the new government is going to want to do is get the tourists to come back. Not only to show the world that Egypt is back in business, but there have to be millions in Egypt dependent one way or another on the tourism. The tourists aren't going to come back unless they feel safe and in order for them to feel safe, there's going to have to be an awful lot of cops . . . their presence certainly made us feel safe, whether we were or not.
Somewhat of a dilemma for them I would think.
That's right, without tourism and people standing put on the streets instead of working (the ones that have work)probably makes the situation looks as if couldn't last for long in this form.
ReplyDeleteDan - I think about what it must be like there in Cairo. It's a huge city, every bit as large as LA, there's been no garbage collection for two weeks, and Cairo is a pretty dirty city to begin with. How is food getting in from the countryside? Gas?
ReplyDeleteI saw that it rained there today, that must have been a relief.
2:47am With the protests against Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian president, showing no sign of abating, many observers are looking to the United Nations to step in. But at the UN Security Council, the issue is not even up for discussion. So what to make of the fact that the world body doesn't seem inclined to address the historic and urgent events unfolding in Egypt?
ReplyDeleteUm...let me think...who holds power in that institution?
ReplyDeleteIm politics like in other areas of life the most effective outcomes result from multipronge attacks.
If now Mubarak stays just to get out with dignity that kind of institutions are not going to contradict the ruling powers are just another form of pressure to let people know that if they don;t stop, go home and start working again and forget about the revolution they are not going to eat in a short while.
If the masses become rabid they can say that they didn't see that coming.
Is always about leaving the biggest amount of people outside so there's less people to spread what they got.
Dan
The Copts are going to hold Sunday mass in Tahrir Square this morning. I can't wait to see the pictures and video of that.
ReplyDeleteThis is worth watching - it nails what's wrong with the US MSM
ReplyDeletehttp://english.aljazeera.net/video/americas/2011/02/201125102520170918.html
Very clear.
ReplyDeleteWell mass media as we know it is in the hands of 6 corporations with probably competing views inside but I bet my ranch that at the end of the day is in the hands of probably 6-15 people.
Something that makes it dangerous for the advancement or of the mayorities.
Was the media going insane because the Glass-Steagall act was being removed?
Was the media going insane when in 5-6 years the whole national debt get doubled?.
When really matters MSM is not with the general population denouncing or bringing awareness.
The Bob Woodward days are long gone, this is a critical ally that "We the people" lost.Sad indeed.
But hey, at least we can follow the egiptians tactics if we need to communicate in our fight for freedom.
See that's why I changed my mind regarding the 2 nd ammendment through the years.
It really are going to be necessary to defend freedom, so Thor you better start practicing at a fire range instead of agitate other nations.
Dan
I bet my ranch that at the end of the day is in the hands of probably 6-15 people.
ReplyDeleteOh yes - owned by world oligarchs and doing their part as the Ministry of Information. I think it's telling that so many of us are turning to the news agency Donald Rumsfeld was once quotes as saying "you have to understand, these people lie". Funny how things like that usually end up working out.
The WMD thing and the iron ore from Niger to
ReplyDeleteIraq.
Colin Powell have to put his face and you could see that even for him a tough guy it wasn't that easy to stomach what he then said for the betterment of the elites at the UN.
Dan
@Dastro
ReplyDeleteI mean this in all seriousness.
Last April, was there some kind of earth-moon-stars alignment or some astrophysical event, and just for fun, if there was, when the BP oil spill happened, did that push us over the edge?
Now, let's look at February 2011. Is there some kind of earth-moon-stars alignment or some astrophysical event in this timeframe? Or maybe March?
And, just for fun, if there is, will it favor the Packers or the Steelers? No, no no no no I didn't mean that. Will it favor the Egyptians or Al Qaeda? Because regardless of what's going on in the media, that's the struggle right now.
If AlQaeda comes out ahead in this one, I'm afraid, as I said before, there's a set of 10 dominoes in a line ready to fall. I know that sounds so Nixon, but actually that's why Kennedy backed Eisenhower's entry into SE Asia.
We lost that one. It's time to win one for the gipper.
I've made my onion dip (at my age, I substitute cottage cheese for Sour cream), and I will indulge myself with Ruffles. My friend owns the Sarpino's pizza franchise, and he told me they open at 10:00 AM, so I told him to have a double-pepperoni double-sausage large pizza at my door at 10:01AM tomorrow. I qill have ABC Extra Stout beer, and maybe my friend will drop by (I don't think she can spell football, but she might wear her cheerleader's outfit!)
ReplyDeleteYes, by some miracle, the local cable company reached an agreement with CBS Sports and we can buy the game. My cost is $80.
In comparison to the $350/seat plus 6700 plane fare, it's pretty cheap.
Unless there's a DOS attack on the StarHub servers. Then, I'm toast.
GO STEELERS
@Dan,
ReplyDeleteThe old guard every where doesn't want to give up power in every culture, every nation. They use FEAR as a tool to hold on tothe past, their own little security bubbles/blankets.
Younger generations need direction, and empowerment. As you are helping out a needy person stand on her feet.
Isrealis have every right to their own nation, their own secure homeland and the right to self-determination.
ICan
Inspirational:
ReplyDelete"Looking to Egypt's future, Merkel recalls her past". http://www.nytimes.com
"Mrs. Merkel, who was raised in East Germany, focused on human rights and freedom issues she had emphasized when she was elected chacellor in 2005 ....She told an audience of 400 participants, including world leaders, defence and foreign ministers and security experts that the European Union should make no compromises when it comes to defending human rights in the region".
"There is one red line that we should no cross, Mrs. Merkel told the gathering which included Secretary of State Hilary Rodham Clinton...It's a commitment to human rights, the respect and the dignity of the human being. There should be no compromises".
ICan
Religious fanaticism -Muslim, Christian, Hindu, Zionist, all, has no place in 21st. century. This menace has replaced the old cold war nuclear threat. What a waste of time,energy and resources.
ReplyDeleteICan
@Dastro:
ReplyDeleteThe last thought I have tonight before I rest is are we doing this because of them, or in spite of them?
"MSM is not with the general population denouncing or bringing awareness."
My heart is with the people telling and working for the truth. But my pocketbook is with the winners. Which sadly, is not likely to be the "general population denouncing or bring awareness".
Go Patriots!
Amensty International says Google employee, Wael Ghuneim, missing since Jan. 28 faces a 'serious' risk of torture.
ReplyDeleteguardian.co.uk/news/blog
ICan
I hope he's ok . . .
ReplyDeleteThx for the linx, and the rahspect, E117... you do have the best links.
ReplyDeleteRe: the underlying discussion between the Rock, and the Astro:
To the I...
The market, any financial market, is simply an extension of humanity... a collective manifestation, if you will, of all of our fears, hopes, greeds, desires... psychology at play and work.
Thus, markets are a construct of nature, just as the human species is.
Now, everything in nature has its own cycles, its own underlying mathematical architecture... order. Ebb and flow, yin and yang, dip and dunk.
The I views nature/creation as a work of Jah, a higher power, but it really doesnt matter what I believe about that for this discussion. The architect is irrelevant, for many peoples trading purposes. I-Man has found it to be very relevant, but that decision is for the Individual to make.
To say that the earth, or nature, is not influenced by the heavens is to deny thousands of years of human wisdom and intelligence.
Do any of you believe that they were only watching the heavens every evening and charting their every move because they didnt have TV, or the causality of world events to ponder?
This is the basis for I and I belief that the markets are influenced by the heavens as well, as is everything on this planet. It is a very Incient take on things.
If you are looking for a playbook of sorts, to try and determine "causality", well, I am afraid that is not the correct way to employ this type of analytical work in your trading.
However, you can most certainly employ the underlying math, and the rhythm of the cycles to keep better track of price action, and if you work hard enough... use it to make money from trading.
If you're dead set on causality however, then any tool you use will lead you nowhere.
Causality addiction and linear thinking are the two most dangerous traps that a trader can fall into, inna I opine.
WOW!
ReplyDeleteFrom the Guardian's blog,"The Comment Is Free".
"It's not radical Islam that worries the U.S., it's independence". Noam Chomsky.
Lot of what he writes about Al-Quida, Pakistan and Suadi Arabia is what my understanding is also. The real culprit is Saudi, to divert attention away from themselve and turn them agaist the west.
But this article is about the U.S.
ICan
Joseph Stiglitz, writes about Tunisia in the same blog.
ReplyDelete"Steadying Tunisia's balancing act".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/feb/06/tunisia-democracy-joseph-stiglitz.
"Tunisia is off to an amazingly good start, but international community must now help it become a beacon for democracy".
ICan
ICan - I read a great book in the early 00's called Taliban that went into some detail on how the Saudi's are (along with us of course)played a large role in militant Islam as it exists in the world today. Good book.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.amazon.com/Taliban-Militant-Fundamentalism-Central-Second/dp/0300163681/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1297025741&sr=8-1
Another reason TPTB will try as hard as they can to shut Wikileaks down.
ReplyDelete(Reuters) Egypt's new vice president, Omar Suleiman, has long sought to demonize the opposition Muslim Brotherhood in his contacts with skeptical U.S. officials, leaked diplomatic cables show, raising questions whether he can act as an honest broker in the country's political crisis.
U.S. Embassy messages from the anti-secrecy WikiLeaks cache of 250,000 State Department documents, which Reuters independently reviewed, also report that the former intelligence chief accused the Brotherhood of spawning armed extremists and warned in 2008 that if Iran ever backed the banned Islamist group, Tehran would become "our enemy."
Can't allow the Sheeple to have access to all this information, it gets in the way of the "message".
Rock said
ReplyDelete"...Last April, was there some kind of earth-moon-stars alignment or some astrophysical event, and just for fun, if there was, when the BP oil spill happened, did that push us over the edge?
Now, let's look at February 2011. Is there some kind of earth-moon-stars alignment or some astrophysical event in this timeframe? Or maybe March?"
Well I can not do it that way because I would have to use two entirely different sequences to understand a series of events.
Like using astrology first and as a condition necessary but not sufficient I will need to go hunting around the world for some kind of new events that interlock with astrology and produce a result.
Maybe is possible seing it that way. to me will be like make an equation where I start putting numbers and letters and (the building bricks of an equation) and put inside that a photograph.
If I said e=mc2 is homogeneous now imagine:
e= :) m c2 :(
See what I mean now instead of two elements I have four but two of them I don't know what to do with them.They belong to a different kind of series.
Regarding April yes there where celestial events or alignments (nice word) but I think that the spill should have been influence too by some kind of alignment too and not been a sui generis event, an spontaneous event without any correlation with anything.
Tha point is I'm not familiar and don't have made any kind of research about patterns in the sky and geological events so I have no clue about the spill or an earthquake for that matter.
Or draughts or floods, even though there are people that mention correlation between climatic conditions and the possibility to "anticipate it" watching the sky I don't know how serious, extensive and accurate their studies are.
By definition to me if something is worth is not make public. If you got a newsletter telling you how fantastic their results are 99.9999% of the time it's just crap.
Dan
About the elite and general population yes I agree completely with you.
I want to make money? Absolutely but I don't want anything to do with the elites, I want to keep sleeping like a baby for the other half of my life.
and people usually don't want either to me is just: hey you want to rule the world? be my guest, but just live a little more on the table so other humans less fortunate for whatever reason can have a semblance of a decent life.
They don't ask too much either just don't be inhuman with your own race and then go shouting that we have to save the fucking polar bears.Your fellow human are first, and they don't ask much.
Dan
Rock,
ReplyDeleteSave me some pizza! $80 for the game! Wow. Have a great time. I guess I will be rooting for GB, if I care to root at all.
@Dan,
ReplyDeleteSo true.
ICan,
ReplyDeleteThanks for those links.
I-Can
ReplyDeleteEvery human has the right to a decent living, the problem is that the elites (or maffia rings) get carried away fighting against each other that they force the population to postpone basic and simple dreams for generations.
Al Quaeda and the war against terrorism is an invention is not a fact.(read carefully what I'm saying)
A fact is war.
Now having the MSM package the terrorism as a war is probably the same that saying "War against dundruff"
Is inconsequential to the normal living of billions of people on earth, but they need to be preserved because otherwise there's no reason to keep investing heavily in weapons, and a lot of fat cat are going to stop getting big money.
Their are not a fact in the same way that the "brigadas rojas" in italy 40 years ago and kidnapping Aldo Moro.
They were defeated with the law.
How many are they? 10,000 20,000 so billions of people are scared of that lunatics?
How come governments are fast to get together with the financial crisis and can not decide that they should be destroyed?
Because is a big business.
I bet that 3,000 navy seals take them down in less than 2 years chasing and hunting them down all over the world.
It could be argued that well is a lot of money spend in military and stimulates the economy.
Yes but it would be even better research more to optimize existing desalination water plants and make a mounstruos amount of them all over the world.
They can keep the profits as they do now with weapons but the betterment of the world would be fantastic. If it's just business why not change their business model profit and become heroes for the rest of the human population?
Dan
Taking one scarce resource out of the problem's list.
ReplyDeleteIs rational right?
Well the same in markets...um...how can I put it? humans are not rational never where and never are going to be so the markets (a human creation) have the same characteristics because they are not a mechanical creation like a car, markets is an area where people "converse" to each other.
Dan
Dan - I like the sound of your 4:50 a lot. How do you try to predict a non rational entity? Is that where the human part of charting comes in? Leaving some interpretation up to the individual? ie: looking at the last 5 years of data rather than 6, or 8. Or counting the waves off the 2007 top rather than the 2000 top?
ReplyDeleteThor
ReplyDeleteNon rational from a human point of view to me doesn't imply that doesn't have logic.
Logic in my view is consistency among the pattterns or alignments that I'm trying to crack.
In other words if I find that four times along 10 months I see the eqity market in USA performing the same pivotal movement and change direction I perceive there logic.
Now that doesn't imply that I have to wait until they repeat again to trade because probably is going to take thousand of years to get the same alignments.But what I see is that certain alignments bring a result for a while.Then all change and other alignments "get in charge" to produce the ups and downs.
So this is the nature of an everchanging sky.
What I'm trying to get is when certain alignments "pass the battom" to new ones to keep producing the same effects just ups and downs.
Is like a padlock with several numbered wheels that has to be align in order to open the padlock.
The challenge is that is not only one combination that open the padlock imagine that there's 37 combinations or alignments that opens it.
And to add a twist more at some point in the process one of the wheels get like "stuck" and becomes the main driver so everything start revolving about that so you have to abandon the combination that you were lookig for and start playing with some of the remaining combinations that consider the "stuck" wheel like being in the right place.
Out of the remainig 36 probably you have 5 that consider the "stuck" wheel being in the right place so noe the task is found the right place for all the remaining wheels.
But the real challenge is anticipate when the "stuck" wheel takes precedence over the previous wheel as the main driver.
The good thing is that I can travel to the future (or the past) so regardless any causation, just the correlation suffice, because even even if the planets don't cause anything but they correlate or like a mirror reflect above something that I'm studying the fact that I can see it before it happens makes correlation or causation irrelevant.
If they are just correlated is good enough if I can see that id going to happen that "correlation" around may 17 for that matter.
See is not important anymore correlation or causation asumming that some alignment tells me events on the stock prices (up or down) I can just prepare myself popcorn so to speak and wait for that time to become the present.
Dan
Meant
ReplyDeleteHas to be aligned
Of course I have to be certain that the "stuck" wheel is going to be the new driver for awhile and still is not that easy.
ReplyDeleteAstrology is like golf you need to have a lot of money to practice it, I don't so I have to keep doing guesses and risking to get two or three big ones then I can become more systematic following each and every possible combination, for now I can't so patience so is not something that I have completely wrapped up and don't want to mention, this takes time, lots of it.
Dan
Dan - Ah, I understand now. That's and awful lot of balls to have to juggle at the same time with your research. All the while, on a constantly moving escalator who's direction you're not always clear about. You must have incredible attention to detail to be able to discern these patterns in the first place, never mind chart their progress.
ReplyDeleteDo you have a background in mathematics? Statistics or research maybe?
Wael, Ghuneim, a Google employee in Cairo, arrested on Jan. 28, to be released tomorrow,according to Egyptian telecom tycoon Naguib Sawiris - guardian blog.
ReplyDeleteGhuneim asked Omar Suleiman, the new Egyptian Vice President today for Ghuneim's release during that meeting the two parties(opposition and Govt.) held today.
ICan
Thank I for the help.
ReplyDeleteYes imagine that that Sumerian guys have a really bad flood.
18 years later the same.
^ Years later again and 11 years after that another big one.
Because they stop only hunting and start being an agricultural sociey they made a productivity leap and didn't required like before yhat everybody goes hunting.
So women start staying home and making pottery and other artifacts. One of them who was very traumatized by the floods found a pot made by her grandma and asked for all that simbols in that piece of pottery.
She explains that this was the way that the moon looked or the sun looked in those events (imagine a couple eclipses and stuff like that)
The girl like it and several other throughout their life keep doing what grandma did.
At first was a curiosity but then the nerd of the "tribe" 270 years later checking a lot of that old pottery thought that it was funny that 7 out of 10 times there were either these, that or a combination of both aligned in some funny ways.
Think 800 years later knowing that was some kind of insurance and 1000 years later appears the idea that goes into the bible teaching people that there 7 years of prosperity and 7 of plague.
They formalized the idea of cycles.
Did we surpassed them or still the cycles have effect in human life?
Not just planting silly seeds but following the financial markets.
Are cycles still relevant? Did we raise above that? Did we discover that or are our brain power just nothing better and we still are all sumerians?
Dan
Our very nature, is the exact same.
ReplyDeleteThat is why we see patterns in the tape, but our nature is only half of the equation I think.
Call it, "time", I guess, would be the other half.
Its deep.
But for now, I'd rather get "shallow", with some good beer, good family, good food, and watch some football.
:)
:)
:-)
ReplyDeleteTechnical school 6 years planning to do engineering and lots of calculus and after that mathematical analisys.
ReplyDeleteI love imginary numbers and the challenge of get the final results it was use to determine some required properties in motors.
All this was for the electrical aspects involved in boats as a future naval technician.
Afternoons we have to go to the shop (small shipyard) of the school and work with wooden boats as to get the craft, important industry in the area.
When I finally finished I want something more human related so I went to Univ.of Buenos Aires to become a psychologist.It was a nice break from numbers.
Worked in a clinic (severe mental illness population) in the profession 14 years.Open a bussines that didn't worked.
Big economic crisis looming got a job offer, came here without signing the contract to San Francisco got demoted as soon as I stepped in,(nice racket) but they offer me to work for them in another clinic with a 35% haircut.
Did whatever I need to survive (remember couple days withouth food nor the prospect to get it, yes I'm a proud person)
Later ended working in DC with wood got a shop and make mostly cabinets but in wood whatever people wants, I love wood makes my brain to calm down.
Things are not good now had lots of clients so I kept working through the crisis but there's a lot of fear out there.
Good thing is finished to pay my debts from the business besides taking care of my family.
Doing some wood work and keep researching in astrology that I could re-started here in 2004.
If nothing substantial happen in a 8-10 months I'll just hit the road.
Dan
Dan - What a wonderful story! Thank you so much for opening up! I share your love of wood! Everything in my house is wood, lots of trim, the floors, oak furniture, I love it because it's alive, still alive, after all of these years. Living in an old house is wonderful, the wood has so many decades of life and experiences within it.
ReplyDeleteI am envious that you get to work with your hands. I fell into IT work and have excelled at it,but I often wish I'd gone into carpentry, or tile work. I sometimes feel that the work I do is meaningless, there's nothing physical normally produced from what I do for a living.
Have you enjoyed this career change? Or do you think you'll go back to Psychology some day? I'd imagine all that heavy math would come in handy for the carpentry. My other half always teases me about my "measure once, cut four times and then start over again" approach. :-O
@Dan,
ReplyDeleteHere are two authors You may like to read:
Dr. Brian L. Weiss - Graduate of Columbia and Yale Medical School.
Dr. Joan Borysenko - Graduate of Harvard Med. School. PhD in Cancer cell biology, PhD in behavioural medicine, Phd in Psychoneuroimmunology.
ICan
Rock - I have a rough week ahead of me at work. It's already Monday for you, please tell me the week is getting off to a good start ;-)
ReplyDeleteThor
ReplyDeleteI saw the pictures of your house awhile ago, very nice indeed.
Yes I worked in an intangible profession.But I like the conexion with practical things.
Is heart wrenching working for years with a patient making progress and then one of their parents die and everything collapses.Right now I prefer working with "normal" people.
For Math and Psychology in my view the perfect match is equity markets I can use both in my analysis anyway the core is Astrology.
Regarding enjoying the change is more bittersweet because of the assumption that I came to work in my profession and then end up doing other thing, but all in all was a good move.
I-can
Yes I'm familiar with Brian Weiss not with the other guy.
Dan
Sorry, is Joan...means a woman.
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteEvery day that I wake up is a good day. The first day I don't wake up will likely be a very very bad day.
That said, I made it through Monday without any new major issues cropping up.
I am worrying more about the market. Asian stocks are down generally, which is pretty normal for the first day after our new year. So I'm not worried about that.
I'm worried about the fact that the MSM is so captivated by Egypt. I'm wondering what's going on really. Not in Egypt, but why the MSM isn't focusing on a broader range of issues.
Maybe there's nothing else to focus on. Maybe the sale of Treasuries (90 billion, I believe) is so scary that nobody wants to talk about that.
Maybe that's not it. Anyway, the reason I asked Dastro about his astrology stuff is because in my spare time, I went back and reread all the major headlines from April and couldn't come up with a reason, other than the BP oil spill, which might have affected psychologicals of the market.
I'm looking for the setup for the correction everybody says is coming. Put together what I-man and Dastro said today and Friday. My analogy is there have been forces at work causing this great run (QE2, 2 months revenue reports etc), and I see a kind of pool table with the balls all lined up. Then along comes Jah or an eclipse with its pool que, and lightly smaks one ball into another into another and clears the table.
The setup for the 2008 fall was the housing bubble, the force was the Bear Stearns catastrophe. The table was cleared.
Well, it seems the bond bubble is unwinding, but companies are still issuing essentially 0% corporate bonds and getting buyers. There has been talk about the corporate bond bubble but I haven't seen anything lately.
I don't want to come across as some kind of crackpot, but I think that the market, ad 1300, has bubbled almost to the old 1600 level, and it was done much too quickly. So I'm just wondering about the pin-prick that will pop this one.
Assange threatens to sue the Guardian
ReplyDeletehttp://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-threatens-to-sue-the-guardian-newspaper-for-libel-15075809.html
@Emmanuel117:
ReplyDeletesome really great links there.
I have a comment about the Nokia market share article. It is very very difficult to determine market share because of the way the numbers have to be collected. I was very recently involved in trying to get market share for different security software solutions. To do that, the numbers would not be reported by retailers without non-disclosure agreements and money.
There are analysts that claim to have market information, but to be honest, they are mostly wild-ass guesses based on newspaper articles and interviews with company officials, and sometimes based on insider information which is leaked to them (as we are seeing in the news). But their information collection system is inexact and is more likely to be hugely inaccurate that precise.
Nobody ever correlates the previous accuracies of these numbers, expect Bloomberg who maintains a list of "Most Accurate" analysts.
That's why we get earnings reports of "Better than expected" and "less worse than expected" because "expected" is basically an inexact science.
Regarding Nokia and the Symbian OS: As we are seeing, there is a downtrend in the horizontal solutions (Microsoft, Apple), and an uptrend in the vertical solutions. For lots of reasons, a company would prefer to buy vertical solutions because the qualification is easier and cheaper. You need t test organization that is huge setup with multiple apps and bug-tracking software to validate a horizontal solution.
and companies are buying. consumers are running out of money.
The other thing is I know many "industry analysts" and, in fact, actually married one once. I know how they get their information.
If you want accurate information, talk to a salesman. Not an analyst.
@Emmanuel117:
ReplyDeleteI loved the article on commentators disease.
I see that disease far far beyond commentators.
Every party my boss sponsors and I'm required to attend, clearly demonstrates that disease is spreading.
Thanks to you, I now have a new platitude to put in my "think outside the box" category.