Thursday, February 17, 2011
Thorsday Open Thread
. . .And a free chart! We're getting close to the break even point in much of the stock market. Where to from here? Both long and short term. Will the boomers who have lost so much in the last two crashes cash out once they're back in the black? Or will they assume, like all of the bankers it seems, that the market now has a permanent backstop in the Federal Government? My bet, is that most, will go where they always go, in the direction of greed. Rally on Garth!
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I ran another analysis of my herds and how they are performing relative to the S&P.
ReplyDeleteThe best performers are
Tan 5% better
XES, SME, OIH, 4% better
XOP, 3% better
UCC, $DJTTR, $DJT KOL 2% better
XRT IGV KCE KIE IBB IHI 1% better
Where do you want to be? I'm going to TAN and Oils!
@Thor
ReplyDeletePretty soon, you'll be competing with ol' Rock for charts!
And I agree, rally on! I am so full of bull.
After looking around, I found the defense stocks are falling out of the range, and the trend may be changing down. There are only a couple so far, but it's something to watch.
ReplyDeleteBA COL LMT NOC have all fallen out of their upchannel and are establishing a downtrend.
That's 4 out of 12 I follow.
I know, I know, I said defense would never be hit. Well, Rock's been wrong before.
Anyway, this is an early warning.
Morning folks! See Rock, slow start ;-)
ReplyDeleteAnother red day though!
just heard something interesting on the radio.
ReplyDeleteHouse Democrats and more centrist Republicans joined forces in a series of spending votes Wednesday, scoring quick wins and sending the clearest sign yet of second thoughts in the GOP over the depth of reductions demanded by the party’s new tea party supporters.
In the second day of late-night debate, Republican freshmen again captured the headlines — tipping the scales against a costly Pentagon engine program that was the subject of fierce Washington lobbying in the prior Congress. But the re-emergence of the centrists is telling, putting the brakes on further domestic cuts and helping to restore programs backed by the White House.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49697.html#ixzz1EEFqYcYp
Could is be possible that moderate R's will join with the D's to reduce some of the cuts in spending for the poor, while the Tea Partiers will join with the D's to cut military spending more?
Thor - When you were in high school/college and you needed to take a test, you would do what you needed to prepare for it, you would do your home work, you would study, you would bring everything you need with you on test day.
ReplyDeleteIf you got an A you earned if, if you got a D you earned it, but it was your grade because you earned it.
Now consider what would happen if you had a class where the teach literally did not care, if homework was not done the students would still get an A, if students were absent it did not count against them and on test days, you were guaranteed anywhere from an A to a B just for breathing.
Under that situation there is nothing you could do to earn a grade, where even the best students would stop bothering to try.
I believe at this point our system is so broke that even the best and most caring politicians, have stopped trying.
So in response to your (10:06) they will do whatever they damn well want to.
Mutt
Madison Wisconsin.
ReplyDeleteBeen there. done that.
Demonstrations against cutting state expenditures. Well, we know where that stands, right? You can cut anything you want except when it affects me, then you better watch out because I'm coming to get you.
Maybe the politicians don't want me coming after them.
You know what the Chinese say: we're not invading the US ever because there's a gun behind every Rock.
So we all know Steve Jobs is sick.
ReplyDeleteThe AAPL is down today. Why don't we all short it? I mean, Dss says you'll read it in the news. So we have read it. It's in the news. He's a dead man (as we all are, actually). It's just that the value of his company's stock depends on him personally.
So when you read it in the news, it'll be a little late. Better short now.
A shotgun and a 4WD and the I-Man will survive...
ReplyDelete@I-Man
ReplyDeleteYou need gas.
Eat beans.
@ I-Man:
ReplyDeleteHere's the source.
http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel_library/methane_bate.html
@Mutt
ReplyDeleteYour 10:26
I disagree.
They will do only what will maximize the money stuffed into their wallets.
Rock,
ReplyDeleteYou long NVDA today?
Breaking out to new highs, AGAIN. This Beach Ball Trade has turned out to be the biggest winner of the year. Buy all dips, everyday, forever.
ReplyDeleteI just got short the YM, first time in a long time...
ReplyDeleteNot expecting much, I really want to get long about 30 ticks below where we are now.
But I will damn sure take a ride down there, especially with the flat line on the 15min...
I-Man - interesting that you mention that! Have you read S.M. Sterling's "The Change" series? In most of the end of the world books I read, your neck of the woods is one of the few places left with people still alive. It's the lower population density, along with all those mountains experienced hunters can disappear into and survive if they need to. My neck of the woods . . . . well, that same series had a line that has stuck with me "The deserts eat of the population centers in Southern California were littered but human bones 10 feet thick"
ReplyDeleteMy only hope is to learn how to survive in the desert ;-)
The VIX is once again higher. Not confirming the new S&P highs.
ReplyDeleteSorry, I mention that series of books because it's set in the mid Washington to Mid Oregon (Willamette Valley) area. If you like to read, and are into sci-fi, I'd pick it up, there are all kinds of neat survival ideas in it.
ReplyDeleteI havent, Thor, but it sounds like its something I would enjoy reading.
ReplyDeleteWill check it out, thx.
@Dss
ReplyDeleteNope, not long NVDA.
I was actually short in the downtrend and made around 4% before being stopped out today.
The reason it's up is because of the theory and conjecture that AMD is a buyout candidate, and because of the financial status of NVDA, they are a possible buyer.
And besides, they are a 5 minute drive apart.
And besides that, everybody wants to be able to get at NVDA's cafeteria. It's almost as good as Intel's. No. I lied. Intel's is way better.
If NVDA does merge with AMD, that would be a marriage made in Hell. Horizontal platforms are losing significant market share to vertical platforms, and even if we did get a super processor married with a super video solution all on a chip, it's targeting a shrinking market.
And, AMD/NVDA does not have the infrastructure to support big customers, like HP/Compaq has.
No, AMD will die. NVDA will become like 3DLabs. Toast, then bought.
Lower low and a lower high on AAPL. That's an "M" with the right side lower (remember yesterday's pattern? Invert a W and what do you get?)
ReplyDeleteWhich brings up a really really bad joke, and I'm sure the admins here will bit-bucket this comment:
What do you get when you turn "MOM" upside down?
WOW
LOL
ReplyDeleteHey Rock, you're an admin!
ReplyDeletePretty sure this suckers about to drop hard.
ReplyDeleteWhat makes you say that, I-Man?
ReplyDeleteFeels like they want to pin 1350 for expiration.
ReplyDeleteOne of those I cant really quantify...
ReplyDeleteJust instinct.
I dont really like the timing tho, its rare that we get a big move started at the NY lunch.
Kinda leaning towards YM 12140 by the close... if the dominoes start falling.
The bid I referenced earlier is still at 12245, we could stop there...
But when things start movin, they start MOVIN... lately.
I keep going back and looking at the low from the 15th (tues)... just doesnt look right. My hunch is those folks who bought that low, or chased after it was made, need to be flushed out.
Then we can run higher.
Every nice up move we've had since last summers July low has begun with a flush out. This should be the last one that takes us up to the top.
IF this down move plays out, it will look like just another bear trap a week from now.
@Dss
ReplyDeleteYour 11:57
I'm lucky to be a guest here.
Rock - You have to know by now that you're much more than just a guest :-) You're one of the community.
ReplyDeleteONE OF US - ONE OF US - ONE OF US :-)
Morning all! SLV rocking it today.
ReplyDeleteYou got one of these, Rock?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/price-bmw-335i-singapore-usd-260000
@MAnnwich
ReplyDeleteThe thing that worries me about SLV is that it's almost hit it's triple-top.
GDX looks like it has room to run. I think we talked about this a few days ago.
Good point, Rock.
ReplyDelete@MAnnwich
ReplyDeleteYour 12:40
Nope. I don't drive anymore. First I'm too old and my reactions aren't fast enough to drive here. You have no idea.
Second, the office is walking distance up the street. 3 bus-stops. $0.71 Sing each way. (that's about $.50 US.)
Third, I wish I could tell you what I know, but the ownership of this kind of car puts you in a particular situation. Here, BMW outsells Toyota.
My son has a Ferrari and I have driven it. No thanks. It's a skateboard on steroids. I used to own a Porsche 904, and I've gone beyond that.
Did any of yall see the "Watson" computer on Jeopardy?
ReplyDeletePretty cool, huh?
I saw that I-Man. Pretty cool.
ReplyDeleteI hear you, Rock. Personally, I've never owned a new car, unless you count my wife's Subaru Outback, which we bought new in '05 but she mostly drives it, so I don't count it. ;-)
ReplyDeleteI drive an '01 Corolla. Barely put 3k/year on it in miles. One day I'll possibly have a nice car, but it's just not a priority. Would rather spend on travel and other experience-based things.
Rock = WOW who would have known, you get WOW from MOM.... Makes me wonder, what we get when we spell DAD upside down DVD... hmmmm you suppose that means something :)
ReplyDeleteMangy Mutt
Manny & Rock - Same thing here for BMW's. I'd never drive one, they're the ultimate "I've made it and I want everyone to know it" car for SOCAL. I can't tell you how many people I've met since I lived here who drive a 5 series BMW but either still live at home with their parents, are live in a tiny little studio apartment.
ReplyDeleteBoggles my mind that people will sacrifice so much of their disposable income for no other reason than to keep up appearances.
I hear ya Manny... I bought my car back in '06, a used '03 VR6 Jetta...
ReplyDeleteIt only has 45K miles on it 5 years later...
LOL.
We also have a toyota truck, and we drive that most of the time. Kinda tough to fit a carseat in the back of a jetta.
I-Man - Damn, I missed that! I heard an interview with one of the human contestants of that game - I wish I'd seen it, sounded amazing. Especially since the computer scientists they had on were talking about how we're within 5 years of being able to naturally speak to a computer - imagine calling tech support or AT&T and talking to a computer without being aware of it. Sort of freaks me out a little bit.
ReplyDelete@Mutt
ReplyDeleteGREAT COMMENT!!!!
@Mannwich:
I too owned a Crowroller. I put 215000 miles on it (hatchback and it would carry anything) then gave it to the kid next door and he put another 100K on it before he SOLD it. Yes, he sold it. And never gave me a dime.
LOL I-Man. People here can't believe it when I tell them I only fill my tank once every other month. It honestly killed me to buy two cars here, since we didn't have any in NYC and got used to getting everywhere on public transportation or by foot. We would just rent when we'd leave the city for weekend trips.
ReplyDelete@Thor: Here's the thing - if everyone has one, how is it even special anymore? I have a good friend here who trades out his $50K-$60K Lexus SUV's (via lease) every year or two usually because he's either bored with it or finds out everyone else in the burbs has one. Chasing one's tail if you ask me, but everyone's different, I guess.
On his most recent exchange, he said that all the soccer Moms had his SUV now and he didn't want to look like a soccer Mom driving around town. LOL. That's why you buy a beater and not worry about what people think.
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteYou can talk to a computer now, no problem. Before I started to write this, I tried to remember the company that has the technology, but I could drive there, it's over by Lawrence Exp Way. Anyway, their technology used Hidden Markov Model math for speech recognition and was awesome. They sold it to toy companies for their talking dolls. I coordinated Dragon, before they got bought by IBM to investigate the technology, but Dragon felt their software implementation was equal. It was not.
Anyway, in your lifetime (not in mine) you will walk into your living room and have 4 wall full-screen TVs and your social network software will have all your friends there, and you will speak and the computer will respond and your friends will converse with you.....
This is not science fiction. It is science now.
Unfortunatly it seems like many people veiw there cars as investments (Well they are investing in a status symbl)
ReplyDeleteI have never bought a new car either, I still have the first car I ever bought 65vw covertable and am in the process of re-building from the ground up.
My wife has a nice Honda and I (Because I gave my truck to my oldest) am currently driving a butt ugly Buick that I paid a whole $500 for, it starts and runs and when if it finally needs to go it won't be a heart break. I bought it in July and have been driving it every day, so I figure that is not too bad for $500 :)
Mangy Mutt
We gotta give Mutt some stock tips!
ReplyDeleteRock - I believe DragonSpeak is the software you are refering to.
ReplyDeleteI WORKED (Not a patient -Honest) at a mental health facility and helped set up the software, you can actually train the soft were to interpert your words and grammer.
Pretty slick stuff, heck even most the Doctors were able to master it fairly quickly....Most of the Dr's that is.
Mutt
Manny - EXACTLY, If everyone has it, even 30-something year old mama's boys still living at home, it's not really very special. LA is a crazy place for cars though, certain demographics drive certain brands.
ReplyDeleteI personally always buy American, Ford specifically - I had one VW Quantum in the early 90's but everything else has been a Ford, with the sort of exception of the Volvo I just got rid of. I've really noticed a huge drop in the number of SUV's on the road here in the last three years.
People have this impression of LA where everyone drives these monster SUV's, nothing could be further from the truth - most people here (myself included) spend WAY too much time in traffic to be driving around in an SUV all the time.
Rock - Ah yes, I know what you mean. I was talking about being able to talk to a computer and not being able to tell that you're talking to one. That Jeopardy thing was pretty spooky. Can only imagine what we'll be looking at in 10 years! Or where the Dragon technology is going to be.
ReplyDeleteSo much for our red day :-(
ReplyDeleteI didn't think that we were going to get to 1350 today! This is a very powerful move.
ReplyDeleteThe lack of huge positive ticks and creeper mode suggests that there are buy programs running.
ReplyDeleteWe are not up a great deal in terms of points, but the slow creeping up trend is unmistakable.
ReplyDeleteSLV about to kiss 31. Wow.
ReplyDeleteOil and Gold creeping back up as well.
ReplyDeleteEU bailout coming for Portugal? Who's next in this game of hide the debt?
ReplyDeleteAnd add to it in such a way that it's virtually impossible that it will ever be repaid?
ReplyDeleteOops, here's the link:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/drowning-portugal-seek-bailout-april
31....
ReplyDeleteOoooh - THe next month should be an interesting one if this ends up going through.
ReplyDeleteHouse Speaker John Boehner Thursday ruled out the possibility of passing a short-term government funding measure at current funding levels, raising the prospect of a government shutdown.
Boehner (R-Ohio) said he is “not going to move any kind of short-term [spending bill] at current levels.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49734.html#ixzz1EFVjWhDJ
I wonder who would pay the political price for a government shutdown. The R's again? That wouldn't bode well for '12 I think. Will be fascinating to watch both sides to to spin this.
@Thor: How about this one? Yes, we are "led" by a bunch of venal, sociopathic idiots.
ReplyDelete"I don't want anyone to lose their job, whether they're a federal employee or not," he said at the press conference. "But come on! We're broke! We've got to make tough decisions."
Following the press conference, the Associated Press reported that Boehner quickly walked off stage, saying "I can't believe I just said that."
His office did not immediately return a request to clarify what he meant by that remark.
Hahaha, Manny I missed that. Jesus, I suppose we're fated to have horrible Speakers of The House - from Newt, to Pelosi, to Boner. If they do shut down the government, and we have a repeat of '96 I wonder if he'll cry if he's forced to resign like Newt.
ReplyDeletePoor taste I know, couldn't help myself :P
Hosni Mubarak is said to have collapsed soon after his last public address on Thursday. By Saturday night he was in a full coma, according to al-Masry al-Youm.
ReplyDelete--
There are reports that Tunisia's deposed president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, is in a coma in a Saudi Arabian hospital after suffering a stroke.
--
Thanks for your long-term loyalty. Hope (NOT) to hear from you soon.
OOOOOhhh.. hehe. so much for my 1330 station. Missed the train, barely saw it passing.
ReplyDeleteOh well. Maybe I'll try to jump onboard on its way back...
@Wolfie,
ReplyDeleteIf the market keeps going this way we will be seeing S&P 1500 before the end of the year.
TPTB - Do you think those are true? I've been wondering what these two were up to since they were forced out.
ReplyDelete@Denise: WELL before the end of the year.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteI believe that it is wishful thinking. No links...
Manny,
ReplyDeleteJust trying to give the market time to do it's thing.
@Denise: LOL. Gotcha!
ReplyDeletere Denise and Manny: The trend is here anyway.. that's all I know for now :s
ReplyDeleteWill have to recheck my scenarios for Chinese equities middle term trend also. The Shanghai Composite has broken back above 2900.
Thor - I just went to Amazon and looked forS.M. Sterling's "The Change" There are at least three (It looks like up to 5) books in this series.
ReplyDeleteCan you recommened which book to start with.
I may take a trip over to Borders to see if they have it in stock and cheaper
Thanks
Mutt
Mutt - Start with the first one (Dies the Fire), that's the one I thought was most interesting, it deals with the collapse itself and the first year or so, the die offs, migrations, etc.
ReplyDeleteFYI - The Bend area is a great place .. .anywhere east of the mountains that separate all the people living in the Wilammette valley from the far less populated Eastern portions of Oregon and Washington.
Basically, if the shit ever does hit the fan - if you're within 100 miles of a major population center you're dead. People will over run anything or anyone with food. Guns in that case would be useless, you'd run out bullets long before you killed everyone. Then you'd have thousands of rotting, disease ridden corpses polluting the watershed.
ReplyDeleteYour best bet would be to be in a place with few people (the mountains east of you) or in places where people can't survive outside for very long (the deserts)
. . . . this is by far my favorite genre of Sci-Fi . . .
Thor - I seriously doubt a major world collapse where people die by the millions/billions will happen (within our life time)
ReplyDeleteBut just like having a smoke detector in the house, it is always good to be prepared for the worst case.
With that being said, since moving to where it is much more populated, I have found how dependent people are on the grocery stores, so I have about a months worth of dried foods and about 2 weeks worth of water stored and if in the worst case scenario, my number one plan is to get back to the east side of the state, where it will be much more easy to be self sufficient.
I also like the kinds of stories like what The Change seems to be like.
I have a ton of books I am trying to get through, but right now I am reading "Blind Fall"
Mutt
Mutt - nah, I don't think one will happen either, not sure why I love those kinds of books, must be the leftover Catholic in me ;-)
ReplyDeleteChristopher Rice eh? I used to love his mom's work before she found Jesus and started writing about some fictionalized story on his life and times. Couldn't get past more than a few chapters.
The pic on the cover of that book was taken in Palm Springs FYI ;-)
I'm watching this on Showtime right now . . .
ReplyDeleteIt's, interesting.
http://wildandwonderfulwhites.com/