Inside a paper bag

Paper bag jokes aside from my post the past week, I got the conviction that this is possible.
The price action worked like I imagined it from start to finish. And is the first time that happens observing a countertrend move.

Maybe for the reader it was just a small correction and I'm being silly, but to me is huge, because talking to myself I can explain it with logic and without blank spaces.

Another salient point is that countertrend moves are the main cause of the unpredictability of equity prices in my view.

The long trend assuming that is "set" for a while is more like the inertia in a moving object, the challenge is to determine what kind of roadblocks the countertrend is going to present against the primary move, in order to be able to (at least) guess if or when this small opposite forces can coalesce gathering strengh enough to change the primary trend or just remain bland and not presenting too much of a challenge to the primary trend.

That's why I'm always obssesing with the "correction" through all this time.The primary move like I mentioned back in September keeps going until something stops it.

So becoming more confident despite advancing too slowly for my tastes.And besides mindful that the observer has to be included in the equation too.

One example is the companies that couple month ago I mentioned what they were going to do (next week I'm going to focus on that) and out of the twenty something that I talk about I only have in my mind XOM and MEE for the simple reason that they impacted me when I saw them.

XOM last time I checked was making an impressive or at least solid movement.
MEE because was the worst to me, looked like it was going to die.
Yes it did (got acquired) but it jumped before being acquired.

So the price action was wrong but the driver in the forecasted move was that it was going to get destroyed something like ABK or EK.

Astrologically speaking I don't have good or bad deaths I have to translate when means bankrupt or acquired.

Still need an connecting step between the astrological "alignments" what happen to the company and the result in the price. Because a company can die so to speak but with two different results price wise:

Could get acquired at a premiunm of it's market price or go bankrupt (or a 95% drop in revenue like EK).EK thought that it was going to be bought but it just simply die (drop), so more work needs to be done with the direction of bad ones when the main trend is opposite.

But these two companies XOM and MEE impacted me as when I start studying them inmediately.
The one going with the trend appeared clear.
The one going countertrend still need to find that middle step who tells which one die bankrupt or badly sodomized and which one dies because it got acquired at a higher price.

I'm going to check all those stocks for the next week post.And see if the observer gor impacted with the most extreme or it was just random observations that caught my eye with XOM and MEE.


Regarding the equity market I'm not too sure what could happen by the end of the week could be a double fake first up then down and moving up afterwards or a movement more constant to the upside withouth the double fake because the two forces neutralizes each other.I don't know.

The only thing that will bring my paper bag back is a strong movement Wed-Thurs and particularly Friday because in that case is going to make a top by Monday in my view, not The Top so to speak but a top that could delay or avert the up movement several weeks.Something like the trend gets "choked" and then drop.

If there's not too much acceleration the first days my guess is that continues up.Will see.
Dan