Hopefully you're not all sick of my Egypt pics. Or suffering from Egypt fatigue! I've been very busy this week at work and unfortunately do not have time for much more than an open thread with some pictures appropriate to current events!
Here are some people of Egypt from our tour. It's so fresh in my mind, this trip, these people. We spent 10 very long days with our guide Mohamed. He had three small children and a young wife, and I sure hope he's ok. I wonder what each of these people are doing today, how they are faring.
Glass Blower - Aswan
fCairo (yes Cairo)
Courtyard of The Qaed Ibrahim Mosque- Alexandria
Ubiquitous Police- Luxor
Woman in Chador - Alexandria
Kids on a field trip - Temple of Hatshepsut- Luxor
Police at Giza (does that camel look familiar!?)
View from our hotel in Cairo (Tahrir Square at top)
Water Buffalo - Giza
Baking bread - Giza
@WolfStreet
ReplyDeleteI apologize for my 8:07AM comment yesterday. The 3rd paragraph was supercilious, and the last paragraph was inappropriate. I have no excuse for that one.
My only purpose and goal and desire by my contribution here on this blog is to help everyone listening to make a bizillion quadrillion dollars or yen or euros or kiwi.
And if, should someone who makes a bizillion quadrillion whatevers by information on this blog wishes to contribute to Boggy Creek Camp or St. Jude's, well, then I've accomplished what I want to accomplish. As Dastro knows, it's all about the children. Not about me.
Covered my short. I'm probably going to regret this.
ReplyDeleteThat desert aeroplane looks good.
ReplyDelete@Thor,
Sorry, those Oxen at Giza are waterbuffloes. And they like malnourished!
Thanks for sharing the photos. That bread looks yummy.
ICan
Thor - With what is going on in Egypt now and how volitile the situation is, you are lucky you went when you did.
ReplyDeleteI am glad you got to experience that a get hope safe.
Mutt
Now were did I put my coffee?
ReplyDeleteMutt
@Emmy,
ReplyDeleteCotton! Seems like the last phase of this bubble. Like 2008. Printed money has to go somewhere.
ICan
ICan - thank you! Didn't quite know what those were and guessed wrong ;-)
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteBeautiful photos!
Correction looming VERY soon?
ReplyDeleteBB speaking at 1 today.
ReplyDeleteICan
"Egyptian army rounds up Journalists" www.theglobandmail.com
ReplyDeleteMove comes after journalists were attacked by pro Mubarack supporters".
This is how democracy works in 3rd world countries. Whoever owns the stick owns the buffalo!
ICan
Manny - Why do you say that?
ReplyDeleteMannwich - With the DOW breaking 12000 and S&P closing above 1300 yesterday, then with Eygpt seeming to intensify, I kind of thought we might get a real pull back too.
ReplyDeleteAnd came this ".." close to putting on a short.
But as Ican stated Benny speaks today, so all bets are off and more then likely the market will close flat if not up.
Mutt
No specific reason, Thor. I can just feel it. Sounds idiotic, I know, but feels like a topping to me.
ReplyDeleteMy own short still hanging tough. Stock showing real weakness. Finally in a downtrend. Am tempted to add to it, but don't want to get greedy.
ReplyDeleteManny - not at all! I sometimes get the feeling things are about to turn too. The longer we go like this, the more convinced I am it's coming sooner rather than later. That we're chugging right along with new highs every week while parts of the world explode into chaos can't be a good thing.
ReplyDeleteInteresting to see some folks try to pin the problems in Egypt on rising food prices. Talk about fishing for proof of a theory. I'm not aware that food prices had even a small part to play in what's going on there now. The Egyptian government heavily subsidizes many food staples. They even have a 25 Piastre (about a nickle) note people use for the subsidized bread.
ReplyDeletehttp://montreal-universal.com/images-products-29-0-large-Egypt-25-Piastres-notes-2002-EGY-57D-.jpg
@Thor: I don't think these things are ever about one thing but food prices may have been at least ONE of the matches that set the tinderbox ablaze. I wouldn't discount it but it probably can't be proven either.
ReplyDeleteManny - just don't see it in this case. Haven't read anything about food prices being a factor in any place other than the western econo blogs. No one their interviewing, either on the street, or in an official capacity is talking about food prices. I think it was a factor in Tunisia for sure though. If you see anything though let me know, I admit I may just not be looking hard enough :-)
ReplyDelete@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteWell, I popped out of my short on NVDA. I suspect you're stop is about to be hit as well.
I think nothing has changed, it's still up up and away.
I was suspecting V would pop on earnings. Well, their earnings went super, but the stock is down. Many times, when a stock reports good and pops down, I would buy because investors look at the pop down as a buying opportunity. I'm still long, but stop is tight.
Up Up and Away.
Nothing has changed. We're buying, flooding the world with Bucky. Bucky is up today, and the market is almost even, the bonds are down a tiny bit.
And Betty was on Bloomberg. All is right with the world.
Retail sales up, unemployment claims down, ADP numbers strong. Surprised we're as flat as we are.
ReplyDeleteThat's true, Thor. I wonder if Tunisia was the match for Egypt, meaning the Egyptian people are merely just following their lead? It's really fascinating to think about how this stuff unfolds so quickly.
ReplyDelete@Thor: Probably already "baked in"? Who knows anymore though?
ReplyDeleteCould also be inflationary concerns.
ReplyDeleteOK, so we have to be prepared for tomorrows numbers. I think I'm expecting that the unemployment numbers will be up for January. The logic is that the Christmas hires are fired, the people thinking the economy is on an upswing will be starting to look for (non existent) jobs.
ReplyDeleteHow do we play unemployment UP? For the short term of course, because the market's going higher.
Mutt, remember nothing goes straight up or straight down. Be sure, before you put a short on that you've got your signal. My signal is NOT a gut feeling, it is a lower high and/or a lower low, and the market's direction is the same as the short.
Remember AmenRa's 3LB which shows the trend on any stock, and the volume commitment on that trend.
Patience, puppy, patience.
@Rock: Like we play everything else right now, MORE QE. So more juicing equities.
ReplyDelete@Rock: That's mine too now, by the way, as I'm only shorting one stock that's done just what you described. Hanging in there for now.
ReplyDeleteManny - I was thinking the same thing about Tunisia. That this rage has been simmering just below the surface and all it took was Tunisia to light the fuse. At this point, I'm wondering just how many of these regimes are going to fall.
ReplyDeleteWondering the same thing about the markets - doesn't look like Egypt was going to end up being the black swan we thought it would. Still, I'm surprised the markets, oil, gold, the dollar, aren't all moving more. With all the panicked MSM hyperventilating about terrorists digging through the border in Gaza to shut down the Canal.
I watched Ben on Bloomie.
ReplyDeleteHe was frank (not ben) and said that QE did, and was supposed to, increase asset prices, because higher asset prices meant more jobs.
His conclusion, more jobs, has been shown to be inaccurate. Higher asset prices means better efficiencies and less direct labor for the same output. That's what's driving stock prices higher.
I think I would have to short a company that was investing in direct labor to improve their margins and asset price.
Sad. But true.
Rock - Wow, he really admitted that QE was causing asset inflation? I'm surprised he's that candid. I wonder what the rest of the world is going to think about that admission: "sorry, we know food and energy prices are rising in your countries, but we need jobs in America so be a pal and suffer through it will ya?"
ReplyDeleteTLT at 89.87. Wonder when that puppy will bottom again?
ReplyDeleteI guess he doesn't think it's "chaos" now?
ReplyDeleteHuffingtonPost Huffington Post
#Egypt's Mubarak tells ABC News he's 'fed up' but that leaving now would lead to chaos http://huff.to/egyptnews
Breaking: Lawsuit claims that J.P. Morgan Chase was at "very center" of Madoff fraud
ReplyDeletehttp://wsj.com
Manny - oooooh reading now . . .
ReplyDeleteRock – I would agree with your assessment of unemployment being higher and that the firing of Christmas workers will be the reason. I also think this means more upward movement for stocks. If the past bad numbers have helped the market climb the wall of worry, I do not see any reason why more bad numbers will not help push people up that wall.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Or not - it's just a headline so far
ReplyDeleteJPMorgan Said to Have Doubted Madoff Long Before Scheme Was Revealed http://nyti.ms/hd4W9z
ReplyDeleteManny - Not at all surprised. Wonder how big their bonuses are going to be this year, another record I'll bet. What we're seeing is basically "we knew, we didn't care, and not that everyone knows, we still don't care because one thing we DO know, is that nothing will ever be done. We're too big to fail, remember?"
ReplyDeletenot = now
ReplyDeletePavlov's bulls - a pharase coined by Jeremy Grantham.
ReplyDeleteICan
@Thor
ReplyDeleteRemember Ben separates commodities from assets. Commodities rise, that creates inflation. The fact that the commodities that have risen are not prime movers in the way inflation is calculated lets him make the statement that inflation is too low.
If we see oil rise and gas rise, and housing rise, well, then he'll have infation to combat as well. But I think he knows he's pretty safe there.
Good posts at Trader Mark's:
ReplyDeleteFord(F) Fills the Gap.
"Both Transports and Emerging Markets are Diverging -Cause for worry?" What's driving S&P?
ICan
I think everyone should pay close attention to Mutt's comments. I had to drop out for awhile so this comment may be a little late.
ReplyDeleteRock – Although I have learned a lot at your feet and the feet of others here, I still consider myself very much a novice. But patients is defiantly one of the things I have learned. In our daily lives we have a clearer picture of how events around us work and they tend to unfold rather quickly, so when we are in tune to our environment trusting our gut can be a good thing.
ReplyDeleteHowever one of the things I learned is; there is no way to get a clear picture of the market and that there are more moving parts to it then a steam powered locomotive. What we see is not always what we get, what we expect is not what we receive, case in point would be X everything you have researched on it shows weakness, yet it keeps chuggin along.
The short I was going to take this morning was based off of action that was going on with it, there was an initial 2% move on it, then it started to gain back. Oh my gut was telling me Do it, do it, do it, but then I read Ican’s comment about Benny and I did not push the button. The price is now back to where it originally started. So far I have not made any money being patient, but I have saved.
So thank you for passing on your words of wisdom, which have help make clearer some of the lessons I have already learned
Mutt
For those of you who are interested, JRCC is headed for a higher low and a higher high on the 15 minute chart.
ReplyDeleteIt looks to me like it could be a reversal from its downtrend. I'm dipping in a little when it crosses 22. Well that's now. Excuse me please.
OK, back. Take a look at Sotckcharts 3LB. There's huge volume and a short bar for a turnaround.
Could be JRCC's time to shine. Especially since Austrailia's coal mines were closed, there may be less coal to go around.
I regret not buying gold when I left my short.
ReplyDeleteRock - Paying attention to a Mangy Ass Mutt is not a good thing, then they think you care about them and the next thing you know they are following you home, digging holes in your yard and pooping in the flower bed and barking at the neighbor kids.
ReplyDeleteMutt
"Hank Mubarak". LOL.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/mubarak-pulls-bankster-mad-trump-card-if-i-leave-egypt-will-collapse
Has anyone hear from Denise today?
ReplyDeleteI hope all is well with her.
Mangy Mutt
Mutt - Such modesty :-) I always pay close attention to what you have to say buddy, you're a wise man.
ReplyDeleteAnd for a look at "reality" outside of Banana Ben's "reality":
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/employment-situation-lighter-shade-of.html
Rock - I forgot you are living in an Asian country, you can go ahead and ingore the 3:20 comment, as you would probably just BBQ up any stray mutts :)
ReplyDeleteMutt
Hah - don't knock it till ya try it. I never thought I'd see the day that I ate horse. Wolfie can attest to how yummy Mr Ed is!
ReplyDeleteBack to the house
ReplyDeleteWell the Jan 29-Feb 3 window for an decent correction it's running out of time, if it doesn't start right now I would give till tomorrow as an extension, otherwise the correctionless recovery still intact.
Sold the puts in sppi.
Dan
@Mutt,
ReplyDeleteRe denise - could be power outage. I was afraid of that yesterday too. We've got lot of trees around our property too. But everything went smoothly. Finally done blowing snow away(with a tractor). Took several hours with a large commercial size blower.
ICan
@Jeff,
ReplyDelete"Hank Mubarak". May be the guy is convinced he's was a phraoh in past life. Forever, destin to rule. EGO as big as a SPINX!
ICan
More small fish insider trading charges:
ReplyDeletehttp://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/s-e-c-charges-six-people-with-insider-trading/?smid=tw-nytimesbusiness
Mutt 3:20...ignore the commment.
ReplyDeleteLOL
@Mutt
ReplyDeleteNot the white ones.
Some bubbly brunette on Bloomie named Lisa just used my favorite about tomorrow's job numbers: Less worse than expected.
ReplyDeleteI love that. I get a kick out of every time I use that one.
@ICan
ReplyDeleteDid I tell you that the Sultan of Johor is my next door neighbor? You really gotta watch out for those regal guys. I'd certainly hate to have Hank as my next door neighbor, too.
Mutt
ReplyDeleteThis guy is like Rock.Very good presenting cases and the best course of action.
http://thepatternsite.com/DBTradingSetup.html
Is a high rise?
ReplyDeleteThe 18 hours workloads could be directly proportional to the amount of parties that he throws in a year.
Dan
Mutt,
ReplyDeleteThanks for asking. Just a little under the weather today (not a pun!) so I am just hanging out on the couch.
@ Mutt
ReplyDeleteWith this:
"However one of the things I learned is; there is no way to get a clear picture of the market and that there are more moving parts to it then a steam powered locomotive. What we see is not always what we get, what we expect is not what we receive,"
You sadden I, Mutt... :)
The charts! They are the only way to clearly see what the market is doing, and hear what it is saying.
What we see is not always what WE WANT to see... and what is, is not always what we like.
If anyone is going to try to trade, they need to forget about themselves, and focus on the price chart.
You know this.
The market is always clearly stating what it wants to do, the hurdle is reading it correctly.
Not preachin, I just like ya, and like Rock, want to see us all get rich by trading well.
After all, if you've come this far... you've stuck it out longer than most of the people who even try. And if you make money, you're better than 90% of the players... and thats a good high.
Hope all yall are well, good luck with the trading, and cool egypt pics.
-I
I-Man - Surely you can understand that not everyone is a chartist can't you? You're not still of the believe that there is only one valid way to trade are you? There are many different ways a person can trade, many different tools they can use, and many different styles in which to use those tools.
ReplyDeleteCharts or most assuredly not the only way to trade.
Respect of others trading styles and tools is very important - both as a trader, and what not respecting differing styles says about you as a person.
Not trying to jump down your throat here buddy, I greatly appreciate your input, but the traders on this site are every bit as good as you are. Trust me on this ;-)
And thank you for the nice words on the Egypt trip ;-)
ReplyDeleteI thought I made it clear that my post was directed towards Mangy Mutt.
ReplyDeleteI agree, not everyone is a chartist.
If everyone were, there would be a lot more winners I imagine.
I am happy with how much money I am making from trading, its my business.
I come around places like this because there are other people who are interested in it as a business too.
If I say anything on this blog, it has nothing to do with judgement, or stirring the pot, is has to do with sharing the trading wisdom and experience that I have worked very hard for.
I do it because its give and take, not because I think I'm the shit.
I would love to compare daily stats with other daytraders on this blog, or any blog, then I would know a lot more about who to listen to, and who to ignore.
But I dont come here for competition, only seeking wisdom, and sharing some as well.
Is that why you are here?
I-Man - First, this blog is a community, when you comment on this blog, you are commenting to the community.
ReplyDeleteThey are the only way to clearly see what the market is doing
Is a pretty serious statement. I was responding to that statement as a member of this community. To me, and I'll admit that I may just be reading you wrong, sounds an awful lot like someone who thinkg they're the shit - ie: "this is the way I trade and it's the only way to clearly . . ."
Did I misunderstand you?
No one said you were coming here for competition I-Man and you are always welcome to come and comment whenever you want.
I'm also here to share information with a group of people I've come to know and respect over the last two years - not to tell them that my way is the only way to truly . . . etc.
Making a lot of money or getting rich is the last thing I come here for.
PS - Good call on January not being the top for the year, I have your March call in my calendar ;-)
ReplyDelete@Rock,
ReplyDelete"Sultan of Johor". Is that Sultan of Johar Bahru? Wow, Rock you live in an expensive place.
My mother's friend from India lives in Johor Bahru and her kids are working in Singapore. One of the daughters is working for Singapore Airlines I believe. Nice perks for mom.
ICan
Rock - and he just passed away too!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.limsimi.com/johor-bahru-news-information/sultan-of-johor-passes-away/
Thanks for weighing in, I-Man. I've actually become a quasi-chartist lately, if you can believe that. I definitely think it's great tool and has served me quite well in the one stock that I've been watching and nibbling on from the short site lately.
ReplyDeleteIt's all good, Thor. I think the I-Man's intentions are good and appreciate his input.
ReplyDeleteManny - Too aggressive? ;-) Mutt must be rubbing off on me.
ReplyDelete@Thor: It's all good. As someone who's pretty intense himself, I'm not going to nitpick but just throwing it out there that I don't think I-Man was out of line or anything. :-)
ReplyDeleteManny - Well ok then. :-)
ReplyDeleteI-Man, I apologize, I can be a little too aggressive and protective of my people and it wasn't my intention to jump down your throat like that. You even clarified your statement so now I feel like an even bigger ass. Didn't mean to lump you in with all the other drive bye's buddy.
Its cool, I understand that there are folks who come by just to give you a hard time.
ReplyDeleteAs far as the charts, I will clarify.
I do believe 100% that a price chart is the best way to clearly see what the market is doing.
Is it the only way? No.
There were traders that I emulate who had far greater success than I will ever have, just keeping track of numerical price data in a business ledger.
They could see what we call chart patterns, the tape, trend, etc... visually, with those simple numbers.
I'm not able to do that, I am too visual.
A price chart is simply a graphic, moving, illustration of what price is doing. For most people, it is the best way for them to see and feel price action. I dont think you can dispute that.
Surely there are many ways to interpret price action itself, and ways to keep track of it, quantify it, etc...
And surely there are different systems for trading it, and many indicators to employ, but bottom line, if you are a TRADER... you should be looking at price. Period.
I think the reason alot of really smart people fail at trading is because they cannot avoid mixing fundamental analysis, and economics, with the actual trading of a security, and the study of its price action.
The two should not be mixed, unless you are professionally selecting stocks for a portfolio, or in the business of buying and selling actual companies, or privately investing in their endeavors.
I do not believe that is a large segment of the "investing" public.
I'm sorry this is so longwinded...
All of that being said, if you think it is fun to pick stocks based on fundamentals, and trade off of that, and above all, you are making money doing it... GO FOR IT, Jahspeed.
I am just a trader, so I look at price and only price.
Half the time, I only look at one thing, but I am really intrigued by the currencies, and it is difficult to not see corellations in price charts of different things... ie: dow, crude, eurusd, gold, if you are closely monitoring a few things. I trade better when I just focus on one thing, but thats just me.
I also dont get paid unless I make money trading, so when its your mortgage payment and shit, you tend to either have a passion for it and love doing it... or you're just crazy. There are way easier ways to make a living.
If I come across condescending, its only because I am genuinely concerned, and want to see people make money trading.
I would post here more, but I tend to fire off bursts of text about random shit on 1min YM charts that no one else is looking at, and there are more folks watching 1min charts over at the other place that might happen to be reading.
I do drop by here a few times a week, even if I dont post, I like to know what peeps are thinking...
And one more thing... people will lie to you, but a chart never will.
ReplyDeleteIt will fake you out, do counterintuitive shit and burn you if you read it wrong, but it will not lie to you. Corporate assholes will lie their face off on a conference call, accountants will do bunk work, and Wall St and bank analysts will say whatever their bosses want them to say to get their work out.
Of course there are manipulators, there always have been, but they are easy to spot, and predictable. They bend price action daily, but it always comes right back into swing.
The price chart is the true story.
Thanks, I-Man.
ReplyDeleteI-Man - Thank you for clarifying!
ReplyDeleteDefinitely didn't mean to come across as if I were dismissing charts or TA. I know there are many many different ways in which a person can successfully make money trading.
I didn't know you were trading full time now for a living, that's really good, must be scary! I won't name any names, but there are people on this blog who do exactly that, some of them have been doing it for decades so there's very good advice to get if you pay close enough attention.
I'm really not much of a trader myself. I'd promised myself this year that I was going to get back into it but have been so busy with work and travel that I haven't had the time to devote to it. I'm usually more comfortable as an investor than a trader. I've been more successful with that in the past. I like seeing something physical for my money - a house, or a business.
Thank you again for clarifying and I apologize for earlier, I know you're a good guy and I don't want you to think I'm a complete dick. . . .
Good thoughts, I.
ReplyDelete@WS,
ReplyDeleteRe China - "Key defening level to watch on China Shanghai Index". http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
ICan
Much respect, I-Man.
ReplyDeleteRock - I only got 85 today :(
ReplyDeleteEmmie - Are you able to get into the Al Jazeera blog?
ReplyDelete@Thor, ICan:
ReplyDeleteThe old Sultan passed away. His son is Sultan now.
His son is the one who murdered someone in a nightclub, was tried, convicted, and pardoned.
The expensive neighborhood just went down 50%.
:-)
And just a comment on using charts: they most often tell you when to buy/sell. They do not tell you what to buy/sell, you would typically determine that from the other 3 aspects of the market: fundamentals, structurals, and psychologicals.
Sometimes we use charts to tell us what to buy, in the case of snappers, but I always use fundamentals, structurals and psychologicals to determine the direction after the snapper. (That's not always true, because it's easier to set market orders both sides of the snapper and just cancel the one that isn't used. Canceled orders are free).
Rock - You are a class act my friend. I mean that, I admire you greatly :-)
ReplyDeleteAlJazeera is no longer broadcasting live video of Tahrir Square, anyone know why? It's almost 8 in the morning in Cairo.
ReplyDeleteWow shit, they've shut the media down completely. What are they going to do?
ReplyDeleteInteresting to see the MSM hype this up. That media has been shut down, and news people targeted because the regime wants to shut it all down before a huge crack down. It's all CNN is talking about right now.
ReplyDeleteYet on Al Jazeera you have
8:21am: Salma, a protester in Tahrir Square, tells Al Jazeera over the phone that the moral in the square is high and the atmosphere cheerful, "like a festival", with thousands of people arriving.
or
22:28 Adrenaline begins to work as thousands and thousands of people coming and morale is very high.