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Monday, February 14, 2011

Manny Mondays: Is Innovative Stagnation Upon Us?

Morning all! Had a very busy weekend and wasn't plugged into much of the happenings, but one article that caught my eye was this one written by Will Hutton at the Guardian:

Don't be blinded by the web. The world is actually stagnating

I'm not sure that I entirely agree with this premise, but it's an interesting one to ponder. Hutton states that real innovation over the past 50 years, in terms of it resulting in the true transformation of our lives and creating jobs and strong middle class, has in reality moved at a much slower pace relative to the previous 50 years. He also takes a look at Tyler Cowen's The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History,Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better which argues that the promise of the innovation coming out of the internet creating jobs has been mostly a disappointment. Here are a couple of key excerpts:

My grandfather grew up in the 1900s in a world of horse-drawn carts and candle-lit houses. In the following 50 years he would live through a series of astonishing transformations – electricity, the motor car, television and radio, the telephone, the refrigerator, the vacuum-cleaner, penicillin and the aeroplane, just to name a few. It was not just these things that made the 20th century what it was. Their production was industrialised. They created huge employment and wealth.

Productivity advances are not being made in booming new industries; they are being made by laying people off or moving production to low-cost countries in Asia. One way or another, falling workforces in the west are producing broadly the same output. Nor is the internet a great job generator. Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and eBay may be changing the way we read and communicate – but in the US they have created fewer than 100,000 direct jobs. This, argues Cowen, is what lies behind America's increasingly jobless recoveries and the squeeze on the incomes of its middle-class workers. Our scientists and technologists have not been able to create inventions that can be industrialised at the same pace as they once did. This, argues Cowen, is what lies behind America's increasingly jobless recoveries and the squeeze on the incomes of its middle-class workers. Our scientists and technologists have not been able to create inventions that can be industrialised at the same pace as they once did.


Given some of the backgrounds and talents of the contributors at this blog, I thought that maybe many of you would have an informed opinion on this topic. So what does everyone think? Are we really innovating at a much slower pace than we used to or is our innovation merely no longer serving the middle class in this country, with enough meaningful jobs that create wealth for the many over the few? Or is this just the reality behind the global economy that we all now inhabit?

52 comments:

  1. Jeff,

    nice post, good thought-piece..
    ~~

    Cowen's 'thesis': "Our scientists and technologists have not been able to create inventions that can be industrialised at the same pace as they once did.."

    is, simply, Bull****.

    the Clue is here: "Productivity advances are not being made in booming new industries; they are being made by laying people off or moving production to low-cost countries in Asia.."

    what, desparately, needs to be considered is the 'Cost of Government', and its effect on that, observed, outcome..

    in that 'Cost', be quick to note the 'cost(s)' of the, multivarious, regulations that have grown up in this Jurisdiction..
    ~~

    on the other hand, "Management" has, too, changed, and, largely, not for the better..

    the 'Keyword': "Designed Obsolescense" should be well known ..

    http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Designed+Obsolescense

    http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Planned+Obsolescense

    LSS: why don't have a 'Crisis' of "Innovation", but a calamity of (lack of sensible) execution..

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  2. @Hoffer: Thanks for stopping by and weighing in with your thoughts. Some good thoughts too, especially your final one.

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  3. My little TLT nibble looking a bit perky today.

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  4. Morning all! Excellent post manny! Reading now!

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  5. Beach Ball Trade in effect!

    Actually, this is the day after a powerful trend day so look for consolidation in the morning and then this afternoon we will look for more direction.

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  6. The elephant in the Fed's (and our) room just gets bigger and bigger. Minneapolis on this list too.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/business/economy/14dip.html

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  7. Consolidating at new highs is usually a bullish sign. Institutions are not selling.

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  8. And meanwhile, in the Middle East, unrest spreads.....

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/business/economy/14dip.html

    And we here in the U.S. watch all of the pretty people prance around at the Grammy's (I skipped it).

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  9. Manny,

    Great ideas. I think that the globalization has been inevitable, even though our government's policies gave US corporations the financial incentive to push forward faster than might have happened before.

    Now that we have a global market place, capital and production will seek the lowest inputs, in general.

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  10. Whoops, wrong link:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/15/world/middleeast/15bahrain.html?hp

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  11. Very interesting real estate article, Manny.

    We are seeing a genuine pick up in the market in our area, but sales are at reduced prices in some instances. The unsold inventory is contracting each month which tells the better story of supply meeting demand.

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  12. @Denise: Agreed, but like CR points out, I think there's still tons of "shadow inventory" and accidental landlords here that will likely try to dump en masse this spring, causing even more price declines......

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/housing-for-many-cities-another-season.html

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  13. There are a lot of accidental rentals here also, but they must be tied into a lease as many that I absolutely know to be rentals are not going for sale.

    Two points to consider, in our town we heard that the many owners who rented their places are taking a bath and not even coming close to meeting their costs, so the people are getting huge bargains as renters.

    Plus since our school system is very good most of these renters have kids in the system and will not just rent until the place is sold.

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  14. Better some money than no money and a vacant house.

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  15. Manny -really good post! I'm not sure I agree with it either. Maybe the technological advancements are not as large as they were in the past. We're not necessarily inventing things like TV's, Radio, or the Automobile, but we're most definitely inventing things that are massively changing the society in which we live. The Internet being a prime example. How much influence has the internet had on the world, as a whole, over the last 15 years? How about hand held computers? The understanding of Genetics and how that plays into agriculture, the treatment of disease, and the quality of life as we age. . .

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  16. Agreed Thor, but I think the premise is that these technological innovations aren't creating good middle class jobs here in the U.S. like they had in the past. For me, I think it's obvious that they ARE creating those kinds of jobs, but just not here in the U.S. anymore. We send our perceived "dirty work" elsewhere so that it can be made at a cheaper cost. The EM's seem to be benefit, while our citizens that aren't cut out for, or want to do, white collar office and/or service jobs get the shaft.

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  17. Manny - agreed. Maybe comparing apples and oranges? We can't realistically compare the technological advances and how they impact job growth in this country the way we once did because we no longer do our own manufacturing.

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  18. The O-man should just make it official and switch parties. It's really unreal to watch this spectacle of a presidency unfold.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/13/obama-budget-proposal-cut_n_822689.html

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  19. I see we're still not touching Defense or Agriculture subsidies. I'd be a lot more inclined to support cutting aid to the poor, especially the working poor if the biggest welfare queens in the world were also going to have to take a haircut.

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  20. I'm beginning to think that if nuclear war were to break out, the market would still find a way to rally. Bad news = good news, and good news = good news.

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  21. @Thor,

    The poor don't have much of a say in what goes on in the world.

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  22. @Denise: If enough people become poor and then rise up, like they did in Egypt, and are doing around the Middle East, they have plenty of say, eventually. Let that be a word of caution for our so-called fearless "leaders".

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  23. @Denise: The spring is going to be an utter mess here in Minny too. Loving this thaw though. Let's hope it happens slowly but I doubt it will, as I'm sure we'll get smacked at least a couple of times in March with decent snowstorms to add to the mess.

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  24. @Manny,

    No uprising will ever occur in the US that will work or be sustainable. Our country is just too large and the population centers are too far away. Plus they would pit our National Guard against any serious protesters and shoot to kill, unlike in Egypt.

    Kent State - four unarmed students were killed by the Ohio National Guard, nine others were wounded.

    From the wiki.

    The Kent State shootings—also known as the May 4 massacre or Kent State massacre[2][3][4]—occurred at Kent State University in the city of Kent, Ohio, and involved the shooting of unarmed college students by members of the Ohio National Guard on Monday, May 4, 1970. The guardsmen fired 67 rounds over a period of 13 seconds, killing four students and wounding nine others, one of whom suffered permanent paralysis.[5]

    Some of the students who were shot had been protesting against the American invasion of Cambodia, which President Richard Nixon announced in a television address on April 30. Other students who were shot had been walking nearby or observing the protest from a distance.[6][7]

    There was a significant national response to the shootings: hundreds of universities, colleges, and high schools closed throughout the United States due to a student strike of four million[8] students, and the event further affected the public opinion—at an already socially contentious time—over the role of the United States in the Vietnam War.[9]

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  25. Facebook, Twitter and Google are no match for the National Guard.

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  26. You're probably right, Denise, but I hesitate when I hear that something will "never happen". Just gives me pause.

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  27. I agree with you in principle but in fact our country is too polarized for something like Egypt to occur. Unless there is a total breakdown and people are starving to death by the millions, I seriously doubt that our population would come together to overthrow our government.

    The key here is that Egypt's Army did not turn against the will of the people. The American government would not deal so kindly with protesters here.

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  28. From Twitter:

    "...and in market news today, the S&P pulled back .01% at the open, 19 traders were seriously injured trying to jump on it..."

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  29. Good points. I don't necessarily disagree, but perhaps the breakdown would just be "different" than those places. It's certainly not coming any time soon (at least I don't think so), but I wouldn't rule anything out down the road, perhaps even after we've left this life. All things (and countries as they are currently constituted) come to an end at some point.

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  30. Manny - I would tend to agree with Denise at this stage . . . I think the country is too far away on so many issues . . .Houston has a different demographic and political atmosphere than say, San Francisco. . . Same for Boston or Atlanta.

    I think any kind of "revolution" in this country would be soft . . . something that changes slowly over time. Rather than what we saw in Egypt.

    Agree that we couldn't have something similar than what we saw in Egypt but for a totally different reason. Guns. A protest like Egypt, here, would be a bloodbath for all involved. All it would take would be a couple of crazy right or left wing nut jobs with a couple of automatic weapons and that would be the end of any peaceful protests :-(

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  31. I love how the politicians in DC are so intent on cutting budgets right now that they'll even put money BACK into the Defense budget that Gates isn't even asking for.

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  32. @Thor: But here's the thing, a common perceived enemy (in this, the gov't and elites) can bring many disparate groups together in efforts against that perceived enemy. You don't think that there's disparate (but aggrieved) groups came together in Egypt vs. Mubarak and the elites there? Strange allies can be made out of a common, truly loathed perceived foe.

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  33. @Manny,

    In theory, I would absolutely agree with you, the enemy of my friend...

    This is where I see a big difference, some of our media working hand in glove with the Republican party have radicalized, indoctrinated, and brainwashed enough people to think that all liberals are the enemy of the "people".

    The real Americans, who are the only ones who follow and respect the Constitution, who believe that Obama is a Muslim, all liberals should be shot for their views, and that no elected official who is a Democrat was elected legitimately.

    Listening to Glen Beck, Limbaugh and the rest of the morons on Fox news scream day after day that Obama is going to take their guns, that he is working with the Muslims to establish a new Califate, blah, blah, blah.

    Do you think that there would ever be any common ground between them and the rest of America?

    Maybe once we are all dead but until them we will remain a divided and polarized nation.

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  34. Great point, Denise. Hard to disagree with that. Pretty depressing, isn't it?

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  35. Manny - yup yup, but think about it, if there are that many people who are all equally unhappy, i think we would elect someone like Ron Paul or Sara Palin before we had a revolution.

    Wishful thinking on my part? :-/

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  36. This market will simply not come down. I-Man, what gives!?!? :-/

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  37. Very light volume today. I nibbled a little at BIDU on the pullback, and a litt on SHLD, right at the end of the day.

    TurnAround Tuesday hasn't been happening much these days, so I'm guessing strength will prevail. Again.

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  38. Emmie - Link fest Saturday has brought our weekend traffic about on par with what it is during the week! :-)

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  39. Slow day all around.

    Happy Valentines Day!

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  40. Denise - Yes it is not every day we celibrate VD, so I hope everyone has a great VD and shares their VD with others :)

    Mutt

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  41. Thousands rally across Yemen
    Several injured as protesters clash with police on fourth straight day of demonstrations in capital and country's south.


    Dan - maybe not Algeria after all!

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  42. Worst commute - EVER, 2.5 hours to go 13 miles.

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  43. That's true, but not for too much longer, We're supposed to get 5 days of rain starting tomorrow night :-(

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  44. @Dss

    Could you please help ol' Rock understand "beach ball" metaphor a little more? Unstable bounces?

    Sometimes I wish I could hide comments.....like this one......

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  45. I waited until now to comment on the post, and hopefully nobody will read it.

    The US is broken. It is broken irreparably.
    The US economy changed from an applied capital manufacturing country to a fat-cat consumption economy based on services. There is no way to change it back short of a structural reorganization.
    Employment in the US is structural. It is not cyclic, as the post and article might lead you to believe.
    The unemployment rate is mis-reported because of participation numbers.
    China is broken. It can be repaired and has started taking steps to do the repair. To continue it needs to change accounting principles so that they are honest and on-balance sheet. Inflation is starting and will be painful.
    The Eurozone is broken. It is broken irreparably. It leans on Germany, which is an applied capital manufacturing country. What the US used to be.
    Going forward, China must finish its reforms, and help the US continue to go further in debt, and assist the Eurozone so all h__l doesn't break loose as a result of the imbalances. We have seen China starting this, backing Portugal bond sales. Probably others.

    How do we go forward?
    1. Assume your $ will be worth less in the worldwide market. Luckily the US can pretty much feed itself, so we won't have the huge food inflation %age.
    2. Buy a house. We are nearing bottoms in Florida and Arizona. In desirable areas, like NYC, Washington DC, SFBay, San Diego, and where Dss lives, the prices are stabilizing, and perhaps rising a little. Decide where you want to live and go there. Now is good. 2011 is the pivot year for prices; we will see some lower prices in some areas, and some higher prices in others.
    3. Avoid taxes. Get a good accountant, take him to dinner, and have him show you how.
    4. Begin to move assets into tax-free investments. Munis won't fail. If you can start a business in your house, do so. Or become a church.

    I intend to, over the next week or so, re-read Conquer the Crash with an eye from the current market situation.

    And lastly, we must become like other countries. We must encourage theft from the east, and not prosecute the kiddies that do the thieving.

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  46. Rock

    I"kidnapped" your post an move it to my post so I can count one more comment at the end of the day.

    Oh don't worry about being broke and think it mathematically.
    We just need a fourth country or continent broke and then is easy to multiply them negatives numbers become positive, see solved it.

    I'm serious if everybody goes down the drain the problem start becoming nominal only.
    Think about it.

    Dan

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