Why? There’s lots of reasons:
1. It goes without saying the S&P chart is so oversold and has been on this oversold trend (with one minor pullback) since August.
2. So many topping patterns have been registered; I follow JRCC closely and it appears to have topped.
3. The CBOE Put/Call ratio hit an extreme low of .65. This has been a turnaround indicator in 2010. When this indicator fell below .7, multi-day declines (corrections) too place. April 12, 14. Jan 8. Nov 5. Now, Dec. 13.
4. There are strong rumors that Moody’s will downgrade US debt. Who would have thought, with 13 Trillion debt almost the same as our GDP. Not that I believe the CS Monitor, but there were other sources as well. See http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2010/0316/Moody-s-hints-at-move-that-could-be-catastrophic-for-US-debt
5. Late-day selloffs indicate the big funds are doing distribution and that smaller investors don’t want long positions overnight.
6. S&P Futures and Nasdaq-100 have hit Tom Demark Combo and Sequential 13 sell signals.
7. Eurozone debt problems: Ireland’s promise to “save the banks” at the expense of facing sovereign debt default. They were bailed out, but who’s next? I’m feeling the Euro will be the currency under pressure in the near term, making the U$D stronger. Stronger dollar, weaker stock market.
8. US Mortgages are facing disaster, coming in early 2012.
9. Chinese inflation. China not letting their currency float and not moving to a consumption-based economy, they’re still an export-based economy.
10. Trending lower intraday tops in $SOX.X (SOX was one of our ETF leaders, remember?)
11. Wikileaks are coming on a Big Bank.
12. 1225 S&P is strong support.
13. Mutt's nervous about going long right now.
Why go long?
1. The fed is printing. Yesterday’s FOMC said that no changes are expected to QE2. Monday’s POMO was 7.8B$.
2. Economic indicators are improving. Retail’s up. Jobs are choppy (don’t we see a lot of chop before a turn-around?).
3. Higher treasury yields ahead. Pushes bond prices lower, and stocks higher.
4. Banks. Looks like Barry Ritholtz’s prediction on C hitting $5 will come true.
5. We’re in a season where stocks just don’t decline. They just don’t dare.
6. Volume will be light, giving folks with deep pockets the ability to move individual stocks.
7. "The trend! The trend!" (Said with a lispy French accent)
8. Everyone wants the market to go up. When you short, you're really in the minority, and everyone and everything is working against you.
I wish I knew which way the market will go. As we all know, stocks will as a rule follow the market. But I will begin to look for the weaker stocks, the ones that have consolidated or gone up the least, during the Nov-Dec rally.
You don’t short strength. Never short Apple, for example. But also you don’t short market strength. Let the market tell, and look for individual indicators that are weak. I’ve posted some strengths lately, some have done quite well. (Yes, I said Defense would do well but after putting together a chart and evaluating their performance, it was a premature call—defense is a trend follower). But now I’m thinking to look for stocks that are below-trend followers and identify them, for future shorting opportunities. Which I believe are coming soon.
Again, look to the tapes. Look for the S&P trend to reverse on the 3LB if you want to be really safe. Don’t try to call a top, or a bottom, but jump in on the trend once it’s established. And set your stops so you don’t lose capital!
I shorted X early, and lost my $100. I shorted JRCC early and haven’t hit my stop yet, so we’ll see. But I added to my NEM on the pullback, as well. I did good on that one, I caught just after the turn-around. Just being honest. I did not enter PAAS, I fell asleep.
What, Rock, no charts? Relax, I may put them in comments as I find weak opportunities. You'll get your chance, don't worry. I did not enter PAAS, I fell asleep. As I said, snooze, you lose.
Ok, Ok, I heard the jeers. Here’s my JRCC short chart. So there.
I'll hopefully get the timing correct next week.
ReplyDeleteThis is really supposed to be Wednesday's post.
Sigh.
Zuckerburg, Person of the Year 2010
ReplyDeleteGoddamn it, you ******* TIME **********! This is why I don't read your garbage anymore!
Emmy,
ReplyDeleteTell us how you really feel!
Great post, Rock. The analysis on the JRCC is very good.
ReplyDeleteMorning all!
ReplyDeleteEmmy - ditto!
Short term, the SPY 60 minute chart has a broken trendline. Chart posted above Quote of the Day.
ReplyDeleteRock,
ReplyDeleteYou can always edit your post to include more charts if you would like.
@ All,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your kind words yesterday. Only time and love can heal family's wounds. I am so numb I cannot fathom the pain and the anquish and SENSELESS loss that has occured. All gone in a few minutes. Makes you wonder the purpose of life, and security.
I Can
@I Can
ReplyDeleteSorry about your loss.
There should be much less tax loss selling this year as well compared to prior years. We have been going up for almost two years.
ReplyDeleteSo far no attempt to take out the highs of the day, SPY just rallied to the bottom of that broken trendline and then reversed.
ReplyDeleteThis afternoon will tell the story, good, bad, or indifferent.
Gold and silver both down today.
ReplyDeleteI see the bond vigilantes have moved on to Spain today. Wonder how long that train wreck is going to take. Don't suppose anyone has Spains debt payment schedule handy do they?
ReplyDeleteI'll dig one up if not.
Tada -
ReplyDeleteThe Treasury would need to issue only about 30 to 31 billion euros ($40.6 billion) of new debt in 2011, compared with the 45 billion euros originally envisaged.
Great Minyanville article:
ReplyDeleteClassic Rewind Warning Signs
"What appears clear is this: social mood is trending lower (following the script of our tricky trifecta) while risk appetites have increased as a function of the uptick in equities (the buyers are always higher). Thus, the basic question we must answer with a forward-looking lens is whether we'll see a sharp shift higher in the collective mood (as I watch explosive riots in Athens) or if risk appetites will abate?"
Denise - that is a good article - their Ten Themes for 2010 is also worth a read.
ReplyDeleteThis evolution should lead to a comprehensive Federal bailout package in 2010. TARP money returned to the government will likely be funneled back to the states, including but not limited to Arizona, California, and New York, as taxpayers shoulder the load and bear the burden of our outsized societal largesse.
As courts continue to rule on lending practices -- many are demanding proof that lenders have a legal right to the underlying property and in some cases, they’ve wiped away mortgage debt and invalidated foreclosure proceedings -- the judicial process will influence how rapidly this dynamic unfolds.
Some hits, some misses.
I'm tempted as well, Rock, but will likely just watch through the end of the year, for the most part.
ReplyDeleteNew SPY lows.
ReplyDeleteWe are quite close to taking out yesterday's lows as well. Should we go through yesterday's lows we might see a good sell off.
ReplyDeleteLows of yesterday now broken. Let's see if there is a rally attempt or a rout.
ReplyDeleteNew tick lows.
ReplyDeleteRock – Great post and great insight thank you for sharing.
ReplyDeleteI’m just not to sure that using Mutt’s nervousness is a good economic indicator – Heck I get nervous when ever I see someone roll up a news paper :)
Actually most of my nervousness about this market has to do with the Fed’s willingness to “Create” new money to chase after the bad.
They have created some $2 trillion, but what is the value stocks and commodities have gone up? Is it equal to the $2 trillion or more? I do not know the math on every thing but if we just take gold into account.
There have been 165,000 tonnes of gold minded. 165,000 x 2000 lbs = 330,000,000 lbs of gold 330,000,000 x 16oz = 52,800,00,000 oz of gold (We will round to 53 billion oz) last Dec 15th gold was $1125 per oz which = $5,940,000,000,000 and if we use today’s value of $1388oz all the gold in the world = 7,328,640,000,000 a difference of $1,388,640,000,000 (1.4 Trillion dollars) and that only take into account gold (not silver, copper, corn, sugar, stock)from last year NOT the start of QE1.
So if in the last year just gold has used up 2/3 of the QE money where is the rest of the money that has caused the market to advance coming from? My guess is leverage and margins.
If there are no bears in the market, what happens when prices start to decline?
To me that seems like a rolled up newspaper.
When (If ever) will that news paper be swung? Who knows? I just don’t want to be hit by it…
Mangy Mutt
Boy that took FOREVER to post, it kept kicking me out, I think it was because I used a # symbol in the Comment section.
ReplyDeleteMutt
@emmy: At least it wasn't The Ben Bernank this year. LOL.
ReplyDeleteThe Tea Party was runner up. That says it all right there. I wonder after seeing that awful, atrocious movie "Inception" on DVD over the weekend if this whole decade is merely a dream within a dream or a nightmare within several nightmares and that we're simply stuck in this Inception-like netherworld of unreality?
ReplyDeleteManny - remember, the Time Person of The Year is often a person who was controversial, Hitler made it in 1938.
ReplyDeletehttp://publiuspundit.com/414-141HitlerTime%5B1%5D.jpg
Denise - Fascinating stuff! So so many pundits are calling for 2011 to be another banner year for stocks! Contrary indicators?
ReplyDeleteInception was a really bad movie, but the perception of unreality is not off the mark.
ReplyDeleteThks Rock. Hard call huh. Don't know if there are that many bears left. Takes nerves to still dare shorting after all the slaughter. I vote for the side lines.:(
ReplyDeletere Thor from previous thread:"Wow - unemployment for people under 30 in Italy is over 30%. Wolfie - do you know if it's similar in France? "
In France, unemployment for young people is high too. 25% of the people aged 16 to 25 don't have a job. However, that's irrelevant, since this percentage applies to only 7.1% of this age group, that is the people who quit school early without a diploma. Indeed, most of the 16/25 are students, therefore not included in the statistics.
Good article from NC today.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/12/republican-members-of-fcic-to-promote-crisis-urban-legends-shift-blame-from-banks.html
Republican Members of FCIC to Promote Crisis Urban Legends, Shift Blame From Banks
Lordie, the Big Lie is with us in force.
The New York Times reports that the Republican members of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission are going to pre-empt the report (due in mid-January) and issue their own 13 page screed later today focusing blame for the crisis on…Fannie and Freddie, and no doubt the CRA too.
How quickly the narrative changes!!
Wolfie - Ah, thank you! That makes sense, I'd imagine Italy has similar statistics for students vs people who drop out and try to work.
ReplyDeleteGood point, Thor. Still hard for me to stomach.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of unreality or making one's own reality:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/12/republican-members-of-fcic-to-promote-crisis-urban-legends-shift-blame-from-banks.html
It just goes on and on and on.......sometimes I wish I hadn't been so curious a few years ago and had opened this can of worms. Tough to go back to blissful ignorance now.
You beat me to it, Thor! ;-)
ReplyDelete@Thor: Perma-bull Jeremy Siegel was Bloomie TV yesterday calling for a 20-30% upward run through JUNE alone of '11.
ReplyDeleteManny - as laughable as that sounds, If there's one thing I've learned the last two years, is not to laugh at the bulls and their insane projections!
ReplyDelete@Thor,
ReplyDeleteNo one knows where the market will actually end up in 2011. So silly to make those kind of predictions.
The longer term indicators and internal statistics that I follow are negatively diverging which suggests that there will be some sort of consolidation (best case scenario) or the market will sell off from here.
Many are predicting (talking their book) of a collapse like 2009, but the conditions that created that type of sell off just don't exist right now. (forced liquidations)
True Thor, but Siegel is ALWAYS bullish and just as bad as the perma-bears. He has to stay that way to feed his "stocks for the long run" book/ideology.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I've found it interesting that the credit cards are offering every incentive but the kitchen sink to get us to spend more during the holidays. A bit telling if you ask me.
ReplyDeleteUUP showing some pluck. Seems like there's support in the 22.80's/22.90~.
ReplyDeleteWow - the Tax cut for the rick passed the Senate 81/19.
ReplyDeleteI think the first stock I buy in 2011 is going to be Ford again. A long position of course.
ReplyDeleteThe breaking of the trend line on the 60 minute SPY chart yesterday was the first clue that this might be more than just a small sell off, which combined with the longer term divergences has made me very wary that this bull will continue unabated.
ReplyDeleteObviously, any rally over 125.23 SPY will throw a monkey wrench into the mix, but I also assume that any new market highs will be met with more negative divergences.
ReplyDelete@Thor: And how many of our Senators are millionaires themselves? I would bet that all of them are.....
ReplyDeleteDenise - you don't necessarily see how far the corrections go when they start correct? Just their arrival and then eventual end when the internals turn around again. . .
ReplyDeleteManny - All of them?
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile on the other side of the pond...
ReplyDeleteWith 72 billion euros of potentially loss- making bonds now on its books, the ECB may ask national central banks for more capital, an official with knowledge of the situation said yesterday.
I think it's a good thing if our central banks contribute additional capital to the ECB. They'll definitely need more fuel when they begin buying our bonds later on...
Rally after trapping new bears who went short under yesterday's lows. Ticks can barely get above 500 so it will be interesting to see what happens this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteGreece turning violent again.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/16/world/europe/16greece.html?hp
@Thor: I would bet most of them are, if not very close to being millionaires.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteThere are a number of methods to try and determine possible areas of support; former areas of support, measured moves, fib levels, etc. Everyone looks at the same things to see where the market might go, however, the bottoming process is pretty well defined by the internals and indicators. I use different methods to see where buying might come in, but if the internals are not confirming I do not buy.
Which works well if you use ETF's as something like the SPY will bottom in one day, while an individual stock might have already bottomed before the index.
i.e., Google and Ford both bottomed in November 2008, long before the March 09 bottom.
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteIf they aren't millionaires before the senate they certainly will be after when they become lobbyists, consultants, and banksters.
Exactly Denise. In order to merely run for office and have a serious shot at winning, one needs a major war chest of funds, so that's partially why most people who end up winning already have a lot of money and then make even more after they leave Congress for the private sector again.
ReplyDeleteA Kitchen-for-Rent Is a Lifeline for the Laid-Off
ReplyDeleteUnemployment meets ingenuity.
Denise - Got it, thanks!
ReplyDeleteManny - I guess what all this nonsense in politics today tells me, is that it's going to take a much larger collapse for anything to truly change for us. At least we can only hope.
ReplyDeleteThis is a riot:
ReplyDeleteTime Announces New Version of Magazine Aimed at Adults
http://www.theonion.com/video/time-announces-new-version-of-magazine-aimed-at-ad,17950/
Agreed, Thor.
ReplyDeleteSPY chart Updated.
ReplyDeleteTLT 90.88
ReplyDeleteWow Denise. I might actually take a nibble soon!
ReplyDeleteDid someone push the market off the edge?
ReplyDeleteI am called Ben Bernankie to let him know he better start printing some more money.
Mutt
TLT 90.53. Pays a 4.33% dividend at these prices if my information is correct.
ReplyDeleteSPY has fallen to the 124.00 support level. We'll see if this holds or if we bounce back up.
ReplyDelete@Denise: Seems like a pretty low risk move to me, at least in the short to mid term.
ReplyDeleteThe market doesn't like that the senate passed the tax bill according to CNBC.
ReplyDeleteLots of support for TLT in the 88-90 level.
ReplyDeleteGreat article related to the Census
ReplyDeleteImmigrants Make Paths to Suburbia, Not Cities
In Los Angeles County, long a major destination for new immigrants, the foreign-born population remained largely unchanged for the first time in several decades. In contrast, it quadrupled in Newton County, in central Georgia outside Atlanta.
The data also showed an increasingly pinched middle class. Median income declined by almost 5 percent in the past decade, with a few exceptions, including Maryland, Rhode Island and Wyoming. The deterioration was worse in counties dependent on manufacturing, where income dropped by 9 percent.
Haven't seen TLT prices in this area since last April.
ReplyDeleteYep, remember it well, Denise. That's when I started scaling in. Maybe repeat that here.
ReplyDelete@Thor: I think one reason immigrants are moving to some burbs is because city living in some areas has gotten too expensive.
In terms of affordable housing.
ReplyDeleteLOL Denise. Are they really saying that?!? Good grief. Bloomberg isn't much better these days, by the way, at least what little I watch at the gym.
ReplyDelete87.56 6/10/09 was the bottom in TLT.
ReplyDelete82.20 6/12/07 was the last prior bottom before 09.
80.51 all time instrument low in 2004.
I put an order in at 90.62 and just saw that I got filled. I am going to keep a close stop on it, though.
ReplyDeleteI got mine filled at 90.68. Small order though.
ReplyDeleteHhhhhmmm, sell the news here?
ReplyDeleteEspecially if this market tanks in the last hour. Right now the DJIA is only down 21.10 but it feels much worse than that.
ReplyDeleteI only have 100 shares. But I will sell it if it shows a loss by the end of the day. (Not advice!)
ReplyDeleteShort SPY from earlier today also.
ReplyDeleteVideo of greek violence. I guess THEY don't like the U.S. tax cut bill passing either? ;-)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/video-greek-riot-violence
Or maybe it's the fact that many are having to take steep pay cuts due to the greed of others, namely global bankers?
ReplyDeleteSo far so good on TLT, Denise.
ReplyDeleteYes, Manny. I covered my short in SPY as it looks like it is going to bounce here off of the 124.00 area.
ReplyDeleteThis market....just...refuses......to go down. Amazing. Very reminiscent of the previous two bubbles.
ReplyDeleteHere is a really good take on ten year yields and market turns.
ReplyDeleteComparing Ten Year Yields and SP-500 During Recession and Recovery
Interesting link, Denise!
ReplyDeleteCorey is really good at what he does. I have been a paid subscriber in the past.
ReplyDeleteFascinating to watch some of the econobloggers start to hedge their posts and predictions when we seem to be approaching a turning point in the markets.
ReplyDeleteAlso interesting to read all the differing analysis on what's going on with treasuries around the world. Very reasoned and thoughtful arguments on all sides of the issue, some saying it's because investors are leaving the market for equities, other (ZH types) that this is the start of serious inflation, while others, of the Pragmatic Capitalism type, are saying it's most likely because the economy is getting better.
Can't wait to see all the doom and gloom predictions as we get closer to 4% on the 10 year.
Denise - hah, looks like we both have Bonds on the brain
ReplyDeleteDenise - That's a really good site! Thank you!
ReplyDeleteMutt, have you checked these guys out?
Lou Mish is at it again, going after the low hanging fruit the small fry if you will, instead of going after the real bigger problems that ail this nation.
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/jerry-brown-weve-been-living-in-fantasy.html
@Thor: Looks like Cali's in for some austerity? Might they be a bellweather (and test) for the rest of the states in our Union and how it goes over with the Sheeple?
TLT at 91.07. Gonna hang onto it for a bit, I think.
ReplyDeleteManny - heard a VERY interesting counter argument about that recently. If we closed ALL prisons, and ALL universities (both the University as well as junior colleges) we would save about 15 billion a year here in CA. Salaries and benefits of public employees are a very small drop in the bucket.
ReplyDeleteHe may end up winning the battle on public unions eventually because it's an easy target. I think he'll end up losing the war in the long run though. If we collapse a second time, and it's worse than the first, the first group that's going to be made to pay is the investor class. Guaranteed. You can push the Sheeple only so far before they start showing up to the fights with clubs and torches.
Congratulations on that TLT buy guys!!
ReplyDeleteManny - Also, I think a lot of the "work" on the budgets has started - this last budget that was approved included a provision that sharply curtails the pensions for new employees hired after Nov 1.
ReplyDeleteOf course that does nothing for the massive unfunded liabilities of current employees.
Exactly Thor. Relative to everything, cutting what Mish constantly wants to cut (anything to do with government employees, who he feels are getting rich off of their careers and are basically parasites) is really a drop in the bucket and really hurts a lot of regular people who need that money to then buy things in the real economy to keep things from falling apart there. When do the regular folks in Cali wake up and turn into Greece (meaning the violence we're seeing there now)?
ReplyDeleteI would add that how is what Lou Mish does for a living any more socially redeemable than what public employees do?
@Dss
ReplyDeleteRE TLT: I'm a strong believer in the 3LB. I wouldn't enter TLT until we see around 92.50, above the start of a reversal price. On the 60 min chart, there's no higher lows. That just looks like a real risky entry point. Good luck. I'll enter if we start to get a double bottom or a trend reversal on the 3LB.
On JRCC, we are well into the 3LB start of reversal range.
On the JRCC, I added today when I saw the 3rd lower high in a row. But I brought my stops down, as well because we havent' broken through that support at 22.40 yet.
I really like to see stairsteps on my patterns. When I try to call tops, I've just failed almost every time. Like X, and lost $100.
Denise - Finally made it through the 10yr SP500 article. What do you think? Coincidence? or . . . Looking at the chart and going with the hypothesis, we should be seeing another downturn in equities.
ReplyDeleteThor (4:04) -"If we collapse a second time, and it's worse than the first"
ReplyDeleteWhat makes you think we wont and if we do why would it not be worse then the first one?
I think I know the answers to those questions, I was just wondering what your take on it is.
Personally, I don't think we had a "real" collapse" in 2007/8 and I REALLY do not think we had any type of real or sustainable recovery since then.
If someone buys a house on top of a sink hole, it does not really matter what they do, inevitably the house will collapse into it.
And the longer they go on filling in the weak spots and pretending they did something good, the worse things will be when the house is finally swallowed up.
Prison systems in CA, OR, WA are a joke, many are privatly owned, but funded by tax payers. Many people are in them for petty (Drug) crimes.
Give the prisons back to the states where they belong and release those who committed "Social" crimes.
The school system is also a joke, offering education to ANY ONE who is willing to pay. Many of those students do not belong or deserve a college education. So what do they get when they get out? A meaningless piece of paper and $60,000 worth of debt they will not be able to pay off.
Mangy Mutt
Mutt - Oh, I think we'll collapse again because we didn't really do anything to address the issues that caused us to collapse in the first place.
ReplyDeleteI think it'll be worse this time, because I don't think that we'll be able to recover all those lost jobs by the time we go down again. Even if we go another 4 or 5 years, an average length of time historically between recessions, we'll be starting out in even worse shape than in 2008. Not only will unemployment be far higher, but everyone and their mother in government (state, local, fed) has been loading up on debt.
Thor -Everyone and their mothers will be loaded with debt except a few of us.... Wheeeewwwww isn't that a good feeling?
ReplyDeleteWhat you stated at 7:13 is pretty much what I thought your thoughts were, but was just curious.
Thanks
Mutt
I guess this is what the Lou Mish types want? Do they underestimate the high human suffering that's caused by this or merely not care?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/15/municipal-debt-crisis-hamtramck_n_797236.html
On a related note, the Minneapolis firefighters left a door hanger brochure the other day asking for support against cuts here. This shit is just getting started with states and cities, but, of course, we can't EVER raise taxes on the wealthiest among us so that basic services that people care about can be provided. Nope. It's a ME-FIRST-LAST-ALWAYS culture now. Just wait until we see the application of said austerity. Me-thinks that some of the self-professed "tea partiers" will have second thoughts as they're affected personally in some way or see others they care about that are.....
ReplyDeleteManny - i know, the double standard is insane. I can only hope that once people really start to see services being cut that they use - firefighters, police, teachers, they'll start to understand what's really going on.
ReplyDeleteLike the article you linked to, and what I was talking about earlier. You could cut salaries in half, and end all retirement benefits for all public employees and still not really fix the budgets.
Same for the federal deficit, you can freeze, reduce, cut, all you want out of public employees, but we're still spending 10X as much on defense as anyone else. The sucking sound we're constantly hearing out of DC isn't public employees at the government teat, it's farmers and defense contractors.
I see the Ethanol lobby got more subsidies. Corn being the least efficient way to produce ethanol. Can't leave the corn industry behind with the handouts though!
@Thor: What really worries me is this could be the start of the social fabric of the country breaking down where different groups are at each others' throats. That's when it will all explode, like it has in Greece and recently in London. All totally avoidable too, if there was indeed real SHARED sacrifice imposed on all.
ReplyDeleteWow, look at this. Brutally ugly housing sales numbers in Cali.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/dataquick-socal-home-sales-off-155-from.html
The housing market going to be a bloodbath in '11 (and onward for years to come).......
ReplyDeleteManny - I heard the CA numbers on my way home tonight - dismal eh? If interest rates keep going up that'll be the final nail in the coffin. Which reminds me, what the hell happened to QE2? I thought interest rates were supposed to be going down. Will QE2 just bring things back to where they were a few months ago?
ReplyDeleteRe: Social fabric. I wonder too, but then we've gone through some pretty intense social change in the not too distant past. The 60's must have seemed like the world was ending to a lot of people at the time. I don't know if it's worse now, or not even close.
I think maybe part of it is the huge changes that are coming so fast and so intensely. The boomers getting old, not having enough to retire on, the ethnic mix is changing faster and faster, read in the paper today that minorities now make up 48% of all births in this country. Maybe the far right, basically the straight white male paradigm is finally waking up to the fact that their days of running the show are numbered. No matter what people like Boner, Palin, and Lou Dobbs think, we're not going to be able to put the Genie back in the bottle. Even if we ended all immigration today, minority birthrates are going to outpace ours for decades.
Having spent my entire life in very diverse places, I welcome the change. I love having grown up around so many different cultures, faiths, and ideas, I think I'm a better person for it and I think that America will be a better place for it once they get over the feeling that their losing something in the process.
Woops - hit post too fast.
ReplyDeleteTo finish that last thought - I think all these big changes, coupled with the economic turmoil, and the way in which technology is changing our lives faster and faster all the time (could you imagine not having a smart phone at this point?) is scaring a lot of people. Most of us are creatures of habit and do not like change, especially if it comes too fast. Much of this social unrest is the end result of all this change. To be honest with you, considering everything, I'm surprised we're holding up as well as we are :-)
Without naming names, I think there might be a couple people here who can tell us what the social mood might have been like in the 60's :-)
ReplyDelete@Thor,
ReplyDeleteHey, I am really proud of my 46 bucks in TLT. Just a starter position as it is normally not my style to try and catch a falling knife.
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with you as I usually do not buy things willy nilly, and if it had closed at the low of the day I would have been out. I might be out at the first opportunity in the morning, but sometimes it is ok to buy a very small position and see how it does especially given the fact that equities are looking pretty shaky, at this moment. Overnight and tomorrow all bets could be off.
The ten year continues a small rally at this moment, so we will see it this resolves.
Thor - Growing up in a very diverse social setting, it is difficult to see 48% minority as being shocking.
ReplyDeleteHowever, even though white dudes and dudettes were the minority in my area, they made majority of the business owners, farmers, police, teachers civil servants and politicians.
One of my biggest complaints about the "minority" is they did VERY little in terms of running for office (And those that did were usually crooks) buying business or trying to take control of the political system in that area.
Just my opinion, but I think a lot of their attitude had to do with receiving welfare benefits - Hey if the basic needs of life are going to be provided to you why work harder then you have to?
So even if we reach 78% minority in America, I do not see the "rich" white dudes loosing their control or even caring.
And if we fight amongst ourselves, what does it matter to them?
Mangy Mutt
Mutt - let's hope not. Very bad things tend to happen when an ethnic minority holds that much power and wealth in a nation.
ReplyDeleteNor would I personally want to live in such a place.
ReplyDeleteActually I disagree. :-) I don't think 13% of the wealthy white guys will control everything if it comes to that. Look at places like California and Florida, we have large numbers of minority owned business, both large and small, LA has a latino mayor, many many mayors, senators, legislatures, etc. The speaker of the House of Representatives in CA is the son of Mexican immigrants. Florida's new senator is the son of Cuban exiles. Even places like Louisiana, who's governor is Indian, as well as South Carolina of all places.
ReplyDeleteI think America will do what America does best, the nation will adapt. We'll go through the next 10 or 20 years of disruption, and we'll come out the other end stronger, and a better people.
Fingers crossed :-/
Mutt,
ReplyDeleteI also disagree. What does running for office have to do with welfare benefits?
What running for office entails is enormous amounts of money which is supplied by the party grand poobahs whose backing you must first get.
These same grand poobahs are those who are already entrenched and depending upon the government for their further enrichment and advancement.
No money, no running. No backing by the party elites, no running.
Do you really think that minorities don't run for office because they are much more interested in getting a welfare check and food stamps?
And those few minorities who are allowed to run are generally very well educated, have professional jobs, and connections.
Guys - hey, remember, we're not supposed to disagree!
ReplyDeleteGet with the program please.
@Thor
ReplyDeleteI've talked to a couple of friends in the VC space. Thinking about a new security company. Do everything on the CISSP list as a service for the upper middle and upper classes.
I saw a TV program a long time ago where they had a professional thief go into houses to rob them, then showed the people how he did his work.
I think with the potential social acrimony coming in the US, it might be a lucrative field. I don't think we have one now, we have ADT who will install alarm systems and monitor your house, but if your son carries out the passwords in his cell phone, they don't know.
What do you think?
If I do start it, I will choose southern CA for the first office, as I believe we've already seen the start of it there, and it will expand rapidly.