Morning all! Hard to believe, but it's that time of year again to have a little fun and make our market (and any other) predictions for 2011. I wonder if there's a way that we can dig up last year's predictions from the other site to see how each of us fared this year (I'm guessing not very well for MOST of us).
Here are mine:
DOW
Low - 10,235
High - 12,310
Year-end - 11,745
S&P
Low - 1,095
High - 1,358
Year-end - 1,289
Nasdaq
Low - 2,415
High - 2,928
Year-end - 2,795
My belief is that we're in a bit of a range-bound market for 2011 that will frustrate both bulls and bears alike (probable the latter more so) and that we'll see at least one major correction along the way, but still ending the year in the positive as the real economy continues to slowly improve, much to the dismay of those that are still waiting (and seemingly pining) for a "P3" style event or events that causes great upheaval around the world. I believe that in spite of all the global risks out there right now (and they are many, with any of one of them capable of wreaking havoc), we will continue to muddle through and "extend & pretend" a bit longer (while continuing to transfer private losses to the sovereign), likely making these problems even bigger and more painful down the road, mainly because it's human nature to put off (and shift) any pain for as long as possible. For me, this would be the most surprising thing to happen next year, as it seems to me that too many are either betting on outright collapse or a continued bull market bonanza), so I'm placing my "chips" on the least talked about possibility, the muddle through option, further pushing off these problems yet again until at least 2012. And what big event just so happens to be scheduled for 2012? Hint: it starts with "Presidential". For me, that's the year we're more likely to see it all come apart again.
So, what are your market predictions for 2011? Have any other predictions that you'd like to share with us here at AT? If so, please fire away and have some fun with this! Who knows? Some of them may even come to fruition. On another note, I hope that everyone has enjoyed the holidays and has a very Happy New Year!
S&P
ReplyDeleteLow 1120
High 1302
Close 1202
Nasdaq
Low 2090
High 2300
Close 2120
Dow
Low 10500
High 12400
Close 11200
Based on the hobo contra-indicator, we can assume markets bottom for 2011 will happen in Spring:
ReplyDelete"Then comes the last wave who will create the parabolic top we all want to see, possible in Spring. Woo Woo.".
Muddle-through is what I think will happen in 2011. Sooooooooo much debt in western economies and Hot inflation in Ems, I donot know if we can go much higher from here. It's a Trader's market(not buy and hold type).
ReplyDeleteICan
Andy Xie: Either America or China will Crash in 2011. www.businessinsider.com/andy-xie-either-america-or-china-will-crash-in-2011-2010-12
ReplyDeleteU.S. sovereign debt and China's inflation.
Good read, direct link - Caixin
ICan
The Less I know I know.
ReplyDeleteManny, great post and insight, thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts.
For those traveling, We hope all goes well and you have wonderful experiences that you will share with us.
For those who stayed home, I hope your holiday season is filled with Joy and to those of us who have experienced great loss (I can) already, I hope the up coming year can help to bring closure.
Mannwich - I predict that this year I will learn more about macro-economics and how TPTB manipulate events for their own benifit. I predict that I will learn more how "We the People" are getting the stake and potatoes stolen off our plates and being given back grissle and fries and being expected to be thankful for it.
I predict I will learn more of how our economy is built out of a house of cards on a sandy beach on a windy day, yet the building goes on and more debt is created to cover up the old debt and everyone dances and sings about how much better things are getting.
I predict I will learn all this and more - Yet understand it all far less then I do now.
Mangy Mutt
Greetings all! Hope everyone enjoyed the holiday weekend. I'm still out of pocket but back on wednesday afternoon. In the meantime, I'd be interested to see everyone's market (and general) predictions for 2011. Let's have some fun with this.
ReplyDeleteHey Manny. Hope you're having a good time.
ReplyDeleteHere goes for me:
SP500
Low 1060
High 1330
Close 1120
I feel sovereign debts will remain the major theme. Putting aside the possibility of a default, my scenario still leaves room for some epic episodes in this long running show.
Merry Christmas everybody,
ReplyDeleteWell I'm still holding the same views.For 2010 I said something around 973-1492, the bottom part worked very good the top not so much, that's why I'll probably fill for an extension to the Fed for a few more months until prices get around that top too. Lol.
So for 2011
Low 1000
High 1500
Regarding the end of the year; first I'd like to see what happen in April-May. My view is we go up until then (as I mentioned past September) and reverse around there,still I have to do a lot of work before talking about year's end but I like Manny take on things.Very keen approach about a market that frustrates the majority.
A second idea (but I don't consider too probable) will be meandering around and in April May start going up but honestly I don't think that scenario has too much of a chance, but will see.
Dan