A Desert Sunset for all you Snowbirds!
EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook
Worrying about oil prices
Estimating the Breakeven Costs of Shale Gas
"Shocked to Find Gambling in This Establishment" Watch: Indian Property IPOs May Stall After Probe, Top Arranger Says
Mike Rowe celebrates dirty jobs
Apple's communication gap irks business buyers
Nobel No-Shows for Prize to Dissident Reveal Chinese Influence. Ugh.
WOW, two good post in one day. Rock's and Emmy's.
ReplyDeleteAll the numbers, from China's trade to consumer sentiment came in postitive.
Pimco upped global growth estimates to 3.5 from 3%.
China upped reserve requirement for banks, and inflation is slowing. That's good for risk on.
Jim Chanos is back on CNBC.
"Investing behind the wall". http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1691090837&play=1
If China goes, so does Germany, Canada, Australia and Brazil.
He said 60% of China's economy is construction. So if China slows down, so does steel and iron ore.
"October deficit goes on diet". marketwatch.com
ReplyDeleteOctober figure represent lowest U.S. trade deficit since January".
I Can
I love this headline from Politico
ReplyDelete"Liberals' last gasp"
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1210/46254.html
The article speaks about how the liberal wing of the Democratic party is crying sour grapes over the tax cuts that "everyone" has agreed upon. It's a dismissive article, and I think illustrates how quickly a lie can become truth today. 69% of the American people think that tax cuts should expire for the uber weathly. Yet somehow, the liberal wing of the Democratic party is gasping it's last breath. Does that mean that tptb are basically telling us that the only group that agrees with the American public on tax policy is now irrelevant?
And think of the insanity of this. The Republicans have gained ONE house of congress. The Democrats still hold the Senate, as well as the Presidency. Yet somehow, the Republicans are now going to set the agenda? Really? If the shoe were on the other foot the Democrats would do what they always do, nothing. As depressing as it is to see the Republicans come back into power so soon after the madness, the Democrats really do deserve to lose right now, they played all the wrong hands.
ReplyDelete@Thor, Mannwich
ReplyDeleteFrom yesterday's post, in support of your theory, Thor, the article says she's a self-made woman.
That could hurt.
@ICan:
ReplyDeletea good read, and a very good trade feeling. See
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/invest-in-gold-junior-miners-gold/12/7/2010/id/31563
I can pick out a couple things he didn't discuss, which I would like to have seen.
@All
ReplyDeleteHere is a good article as well. Because Todd is sometimes difficult to read because of his metaphor and use of terms we all aren't familiar with, I recommend this one for everyone.
In it, he says something that I think we all know but some of us fail to realize it: Bernank's big problem now is psychological, to sell the US solution to the world. Because if he fails, the medicine is deflation and debt destruction.
The one thing he fails to do is call out the American people with the "Ask not"... Well, we've called out the poor, and lower middle class, and they have responded. No jobs, no money, no spending. They are taking the medicine. So it's time to call out the rest of us.
I overpaid my 2009 taxes by about 20%. I will be overpaying my 2010 by about the same. It's really very simple for me, just discard the form 2555 and don't enter line 21. My accountant had a bird, and almost wouldn't sign, but I finally convinced him.
It'd be nice if the corporations paid their tax instead of transferring their profits to Belize or the Canaan Islands.
Great Expectations for Ben Bernanke
ReplyDelete@Rock (7:00)
ReplyDeleteSuper!
First, think of France. The western world cannot afford to have big gap between haves and have-nots. It's in the rich people's interest to share some of that wealth.
I think western countries were providing aid to the poor countries so they would stay put in their own places.
Marketwatch had an article about Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook CEO, pledging most of his wealth to Gates' charity. What a contrast from Wall Street bankers.
One of the lessons I've learned from my parents is wealth is relative and you are rich because someone else is poor. So many things have to come into play for one to amass wealth. Opportunity, timing, where you were born, genes, enviornment etc. etc.
For example, if I had born to a lower class family in our village, I don't think I would've come to Canada regardless of my intellectual ability. Just recently a young woman( first person) from "lower" caste has been able to emigrate to Australia. I was happy hear that news.
Finally, we aren't taking anything with us to the next world, not even our body. So, how much does one need to survive?
I Can
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteA self made woman with a really, really, really bad wig.
ICan -wise words - my grandmother always used to say "you can't take it with you".
ReplyDeleteRock - I agree on Bernanke - I think it's a confidence game and that ultimately he may very well fail. I think that might be another one of the reasons the Big O is losing so much popularity. Too many of us put TOO much hope in him, maybe more than we should have for any one man. This doesn't get him off the hook I don't think, but we were looking for a Roosevelt or a Kennedy and what we got was a Ford or a Carter.
Hey also - What do you guys think for next year? We've already seen what QE1 did to equities. What do you all think the combination of QE2 and this 900 Billion in tax cuts? That's going to goose the markets quite a bit I think. I wonder for how long, and how high.
Rock,
ReplyDeleteSobering Todd Harrison article and thanks to Emmy for posting the link. Following the links inside the article is good background on his rational.
Thor,
ReplyDeleteYou have to remember that the 900b in tax cuts means that the status quo remains. Net income remains the same. Except for the estate tax.
The most stimulative thing is extending unemployment insurance as this money is spent immediately for food, shelter, etc.
In the end all of these things add to the deficit, but short term jobs are not lost, at least as fast as they were, and maybe some jobs are created as global demand is stronger than domestic demand.
Snowmageddon here in the tc. At least a foot out there already. Probably going to get 16 before it's done. Blowing sideways snow. Literally blizzard-like conditions. These are the times when I long for condo or apartment living. Have a long, narrow driveway with nowhere to put the snow. Brutal. Definitely an impressive storm though, and worst one since we've been here.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else see the news on mark madoff's apparent suicide?
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteThat certainly was a shock. Hanged himself, apparently.
It's raining here, with a bit of sleet, waiting for the worst to blow through. It's the pits. Maybe Thor has an extra bed he could rent out for the month.
ReplyDeleteManny - 85 and sunny here :-)
ReplyDeleteDenise - I don't think the full 900 is all status quo,
I think more than half of that is additional stimulus beyond the tax expiration for the wealthy.
This is pretty funny:
ReplyDeleteIt has paid to be bullish - Altucher demands apology from Lou Mish, and Roubini
Because of his steadfast bullishness, Formula Capital's James Altucher has become a lightning rod for the bears. The Altucher backlash intensified after a Tech Ticker appearance on May 28 when he said the recovery was "better than a V" and predicted new highs for the stock market by 2012.
That appearance and those predictions prompted a sharp rebuke from Michael "Mish" Shedlock, who called Altucher "completely whacko."
I am not sure how anyone with what looks to be a dead rodent on his head can be taken seriously, but I guess he has his fans.
ReplyDeleteFrom the comments:
ReplyDelete"Everything I've said has come true..."
Altucher’s 10 Predictions for 2010
1.) The S&P 500 will touch 1300 at some point during the year.
2.) Unemployment goes down to 8%.
3.) GDP hits an annualized 6% by Q2 as inventories get restocked.
4.) Dendreon (DNDN) is acquired.
5.) AOL gets bought by Microsoft.
6.) B will the best letter in the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China.
7.) Health care will greatly outperform the S&P in 2010.
8.) Banks start lending money again.
9.) Either Apple or Amazon will develop the killer tablet computing product (or be close to it for 2011).
10.) The world will not end.
Bottom Line: James Altucher is a a permabull fool who happens to be on the right side of some recent data.
I just think it is funny that he is challenging Lou Mish on his perma bear stance and Mish has been wrong many times as well.
I'm not a vain person (well, not that vain), but altucher really needs to do something about that hair. He has money, right? If you are going to be on tv, please at least look somewhat groomed. 3.5 hours of shoveling today. Epic storm here. At least 16-18 inches and blowing snow drifts everywhere. Was novel at first but it's officially no longer fun anymore. Going to be minus 30 wind chills tonite and high of zero tomorrow. Not even technically winter yet. Sigh. Think I need to start planning a vaca to bali or something.
ReplyDeleteManny- I so hope I get to see a snow storm some day.
ReplyDeleteWe had the opposite day. Picked about 5 pounds of olives off the tree in the front yard. I got sun burned. :-(
I find that fascinating, the vastness of our country.
Oh - tomorrow's high is supposed to be 85. It's 76 right now.
ReplyDelete8,600 take test to fill 1,100 open Chicago cop jobs
ReplyDeleteAbout 8,600 people showed Saturday to take the exam. The last recruiting drive in 2006 brought about 8,000 people to the initial test, Weis said. There are about 1,100 vacant positions in the department, Weis said, though he does not expect to be able to hire that many officers.
Weis suggested the higher number of applicants could be attributed to the promise of a secure, decently compensated position and a rewarding career in a demoralizing job market. People in some professions have to question their contribution to society, he said.
Denise - Makes you think doesn't it? What exactly is Lou Mish contributing to society these days? I mean, aside from demonizing police, fire, and other "greedy unions". All Lou Mish does it make wealthy people even wealthier.
ReplyDeleteI'll take the cops and the fire fighters ANY day.
You know what gals me the most? Is that fascists like Lou Mish have the nerve to say that teachers, policemen, and Firefighters are overpaid. I know who the real overpaid leeches are in this society and you better believe one thing, it ain't the public employees.
We live in a society where people like Mish are not only not shouted down and run out of town. People glorify their greed. The very people who Mish ridicules and despises are often the one's cheering him on!!
ReplyDeleteWhat is wrong with this picture???
@Jeff,
ReplyDeleteFresh air from Canada, eh? It's -25C in ThunderBay and Winnipeg.
I Can
If I stand over that sunset picture and rub my hands together I might have visions of warmth!
ReplyDeleteManny is buried, we have some snow but blowing bitter winds, and it will be really bitter tonight.
Brrr.
What I want to know is what decade is Lou Mish talking about in his quote of November 25, 2009.
ReplyDeleteMish is a one way "we're all going to hell" kind of guy. He seems to be one of those types of people who only feel good when looking at the world (from his comfortable suburban home) while predicting that life as we know it is about to end, he just can't get the timing right.
ReplyDeleteLike many in the investment world/pundit business, he has to sell himself to make any money. He has targeted the dead enders, the kind of people who populate the ZH commentary boards, the vast, mostly white male disaffected person who are threatened by everything that doesn't look like 1950 America.
Holy crap! The Minneapolis Metrodome has collapsed!
ReplyDeleteThe Minneapolis Metrodome, where the Minnesota Vikings play, has collapsed during a snowstorm.
The Metrodome is operated by the Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission. Its executive director, Bill Lester, said Sunday morning the damage is being assessed and the agency will issue a statement later. He says he has no details yet on what happened.
Minneapolis and much of the upper Midwest have been hit by a blizzard that has dumped up to 20 inches of snow in some areas.
BR posted a thread on Mark Madoff story. One comment,that summed up my feeling:
ReplyDeletePetey Wheatstraw Says:"What could ANYONE be doing that is worth $16,314,286 per year over that same seven year period(or any seven year period, in relative dollars)?...Honestly, whatever happened to the idea that greed is a bad idea?......How can we possibly have intractable public defecits when people are making this much money? How can our infrasturcture be crumbling, our workforce idled,and our banks and Treasury be failing,with people hoarding more cash(and from questionable legal and blantantly illegal sources) than THEY CAN EVERE SPEND.....The Madoff family story is poetic justice on a Shakespearean tradgedy scale".
This looting of treasury is not only happening in America, but in Pakistan, India and lot of other countries.
State treasury is empty while people are rich. In India, exactly the same thing. So much of wealth is hidden overseas in Swiss banks and offshore places, and away from official monetary system.
I think collective conscious of the elite all over the world is dead.
I Can
"More than 80 on reserve politicians paid more than PM". www.theglobeandmail.com
ReplyDelete"One aboriginal-reserve politician in Atlantic Canada made $978,468 last year, TAX-Free.". That's more than Canadian Prime Minister Steven Harper. Canadian taxpayers pay for Indian reservations.
"222 chiefs are making more than their respective Premiers according to the tax payers federation".
More than 450 comments on this story.
I Can
Denise - OMG !! And it's not just a small collapse - the dome in now a bowl! Good thing we have a local corespondent
ReplyDeleteManny - what the?!
Denise - re: Mish always waiting for "the end".
ReplyDeleteI often wonder how much some of these uber wealthy almost wishing for a collapse have any idea what will happen them in that kind if a world. God forbid we do have this collapse, people like Mish, Denninger, BR, Mauldin, will be social pariah's at best. At worst, well Wolfie can probably tell us something about that.
Here's a live video of the dome collapsing from the inside:
ReplyDeleteDome Collapsing
The real problem is that people have a difficult time discerning that a guy like Mish (and others who shall remain nameless) promotes his sometimes extreme world view in order to attract people to his investment business, his website, his columns, etc., so that he can make money from them. So it pays Mish to be controversial because it drives people to his website, which advertises his capital management business, and draws paying advertisers to his site.
ReplyDeleteIt is the formula that drives 10,000 careers in today's world.
It's a business, and his followers don't care if he is wrong 80% of the time, they like his world view; he's just early, etc.
He is just like anyone else in our capitalist economy trying to exploit people for maximum personal gain.
But I still like making fun of him as he is an easy target.
ReplyDeleteThose who were waiting for China to hike rates over the weekend.
ReplyDelete"China Plans to tackle inflation". http://ft.com
"State media said on Sunday at the conclusion of a three day conference to set economic policy for 2011, that the government's goal would be to battle inflation without jepordising growth.....The priority is to actively and properly handle the relationship between steadly and relatively fast economic growth, economic restructuring and managing inflation expections...currency policy would remain basically stable next year".
Steady and relatively fast growth?
CONTROL. They even want to contol the web..Google and wikiLeaks cable...
Also, new POMO schedule on NY Fed site.
Options expiry next week.
I Can
@Denise: The cynical side of me says the Vikings will use this as a way to further promote their new taxpayer-financed stadium boondoggle (which has mostly stalled lately, and rightfully so given the state's dire financial situation), and that it will likely work. They won't share in the profits though, I'm sure. OPM = TP (THEIR profits).
ReplyDeleteRe: the Madoff suicide - my immediate thought (I know, take off the tin foil hat) was that it seemed like a head-scratcher to me for them to declare the cause of death so quickly. Just saying.
ReplyDeleteThe snow banks outside are a thing to behold. Haven't seen a storm like that in a while. The thing is, this snow isn't going anywhere for at least 4-5 months because we never get a thaw all winter here like other places do. It would be one thing to get this towards the end of the year but to have it so early makes for one interesting winter. The side roads are all goint be very narrow all winter with huge snow banks around them. If we continue to get some decent storms throughout the season, the snowbanks are going to be epic. I'll have to take some pics and post them, maybe even get them in my post for tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteThat video is wild, Denise!
ReplyDeleteMany - Take pictures for us! :-) I'd love to see those streets layered in inches of ice you talked about last year too!
ReplyDeleteDenise - WOW! That video was insane! Like something out of a movie!
ReplyDeleteThis far right nutjob attempt to defund NPR is a joke. Fascists not wanting anyone around to report the truth of their torture and rape of the middle class. In the end, if NPR does lose funding, I'd imagine it would be the best thing that could ever happen to them. I'm sure I'd not be the only person who would pledge were that to happen.
ReplyDeleteHell, it might be exactly what they need to finally shrug off the pandering to the right wing extremists all the MSM news outlets seem to be doing these days.
After going for a morning walk to the bakery to get a little breakfast and then to the gym, I'm not real motivated to go out in 2 degree temps but I'll try to get out for some pics before it gets dark so that I can post them tomorrow. It's really incredible. Cars were getting stuck on our street and others everywhere yesterday. I spent an hour trying to shovel out one misguided soul who thought he could take the minivan down to the gas station for some gas for his snowblower. Bad move by him. Had to call a tow after we failed to get him out. It was just too deep for a car that didn't have four wheel drive and a high enough suspension to get through the deep snow. Why do people insist on driving in those conditions.
ReplyDeleteManny - Hah, if you think that's bad, you should see Angelino's try to drive in the RAIN ;-)
ReplyDeleteYou guys really are soft, Thor. No offense. ;-)
ReplyDeleteManny - None taken. I'm the first to admit it!
ReplyDeletehttp://comedy.video.yahoo.com/?l=3774740&v=8624981
ReplyDeleteFunny video.
The Bears are playing today in the snow and wind. Makes me glad we have a nice cozy place to watch the game!
ReplyDeleteDenise - hah, that's hilarious! I'd be lying if I said I wasn't one of those annoying poodle owners who dresses them up in cute outfits.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, or fortunately for them depending on how you look at it, poodle are pretty smart so I can keep them in their "outfits" just long enough for a picture, after that, they've figured out how to chew the outfits off each other.
We bought the little booties for our dog for the outside but he was having none of it.
ReplyDeleteWe laughed so hard at the uncomfortable yawn that the pooch gave in the beginning.
Good grief. John Boner on 60 Minutes tonight and breaks down crying again. Can you say "narccissist"? There's something unseemly about it in the face of all the people that are still suffering in this post-recesssion climate.
ReplyDeleteAnd da Bears are getting crushed by my Patriots, who are playing VERY well right now.
ReplyDeleteMy dog refused to wear clothing of any kind. We tried the boots too. No dice.
ReplyDeleteI'll have to miss tonight's "60 Minutes" with orange drunk Boner.
ReplyDeleteBoehner was practically sobbing. How pathetic.
ReplyDeleteWell, that was enough of the Bears for today.
ReplyDelete"It's getting harder to find apartment in Canada". CBC
ReplyDeleteOpec ministers made no change in curde production quotas.
They should thank the Fed and BOJ.
I Can
@Denise: He clearly has no dignity or class. The fact that he's crying because it's all about his rising to be Speaker in the greater context of what's going on in this country is sickening. It's not like he's crying about someone else. It's all about him.
ReplyDeleteSince the December rally started these are the strongest ETF's:
ReplyDeleteIAT Regional Banks
EWO Austria Fund
IYG DJ US Financials
XHB Homebuilders
PSI Semis
SLX Steel
KCE Capital Markets
PBW Clean Energy
PHO Water Resource
EZA South Africa
Weakest ETFs:
ReplyDeleteGLD Gold Trust
PGJ Golden Dragon China
FNI China-India Index Fund
PMR Retail
EWH Hong Kong Index Fund
SLV Silver
ILF Latin America
EWW Mexico
IYC DJ Consumer Services
HHH Internet Holders (41% Amazon)
I didn't catch the question that started the waterworks, but I have it ready to record for later.
ReplyDeleteKCE has these stocks:
ReplyDeleteMorgan Stanley Common Stock MS 7.66
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) GS 7.59
State Street Corporation Common STT 7.36
CME Group Inc. CME 6.21
Charles Schwab Corporation (The SCHW 5.51
Lazard LTD. Lazard, LTD. Class LAZ 5.36
Raymond James Financial, Inc. C RJF 5.30
Franklin Resources, Inc. Common BEN 4.50
Jefferies Group, Inc. Common St JEF 4.46
Janus Capital Group, Inc. Cmn S JNS 4.45
These were pulled from a universe of ETF's that I keep that has no leveraged products, has some volume, and has been in existence for a while. I omitted duplicate sector ETF's.
ReplyDeleteManny - YES! I'm glad you see it for what it is as well. Did you see the first time he did it? People were cheering him on. They're are so blinded by their worship of their overlords that they probably think he's crying because he's a patriot.
ReplyDeleteI'm with you, I think it's sickening.
Ah, apparently he's known to cry quite frequently.
ReplyDeletehah!
http://www.buzzfeed.com/akdobbins/john-boehner-crying-a-comprehensive-guide
Number 4 is my favorite.
#
4. June 4, 2009
(At the unveiling of a Ronald Reagan Statue, of course.)
Of course
Hah - last one I promise and I'll lay off politics for the night.
ReplyDeleteJohn Boehner - Weeper if The House
@Denise: I'll bet it's a question about his rise from rags to the Speaker of the House. The fact that he's been on the take now for years by special interests in order to get there has ME crying for other reasons.
ReplyDeleteThat was what he sobbed openly about during his speech after the election. A pathetic man.
ReplyDeleteSo I'm hearing some rumblings about the Vikes using the roof collapse as their new pitch for a new taxpayer-funded stadium. Did I call that or what? What a joke. State has a $6 billion dollar deficit and "can't afford" other valued public services but we can afford to buy multi-millionaires more toys to make them even richer, while they share none of the largesse from our investment in their toys with us. We the People are a bunch of idiots and rubes if we allow this to happen.
ReplyDeleteHere's a "poll":
ReplyDeletehttp://www.startribune.com/polls/111752964.html?save=%C3%82%C2%A0Vote%C3%82%C2%A0&oid=3&mr=1&cid=8500397&pid=111752964
This about seals it for me. We the Sheeple indeed.
Re, Mark Madoff suicide.
ReplyDeleteReally sad for the young kids. What did they do to deserve this shitty deal? Cann't imagine the horror!
I Can
@Dss
ReplyDeleteThanks for the list of ETFs. I hadn't looked at a few of them, and I'm combing them now, always looking to improve my sector-specific herd indicators.
Looks like a lot of them have fallen off strength the last week, like SLX, IAT, EWO, XHB, SLX, and EZA.
I'm wondering if this fall-off is a precursor to another leg up, or if it's a topping out, ready for a pullback. Take a look at EZA, and you'll see we're at around a triple-top at $71 or so.
I'm in the pullback camp right now. I'm thinking we'll see a short-term (5 or so day) pullback and give higher lows, for the next run-up into Christmas.
The banks and financial services are sure good, though. I'm just so afraid to go there because of regulations and SEC investigations, and wikileaks.
Rock,
ReplyDeleteIt was a quick scan just to see what has shown better/worse RS since the Dec rally began. I do these types of scans from the bottom of each rally phase to see what are the best vehicles for the next rally. Also I look at the individual stocks in these ETF's to see what stocks are leaders and sometimes I just invest in those instead of taking the whole universe of stocks which usually includes some dogs.
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteI look at each ETF then to see where it is relative to itself. New all time highs is naturally the best, but things like the financials seem to be waking up so we might see some sector rotation into the end of the year.
IAT Regional Banks
ReplyDeleteEWO Austria Fund
IYG DJ US Financials
XHB Homebuilders
PSI Semis
SLX Steel
KCE Capital Markets
PBW Clean Energy
PHO Water Resource
EZA South Africa
SLV
PSI
IEZ
KOL
XME
PWJ
XRT
IWO
This second group is the RS leaders from 9/1/10. The only one on that list is PSI, semis. All the rest are new.
I really should not say RS, as I use a percentage scan rather than a true RS scan.
@Dss:
ReplyDeleteMy favorite, KOL, dropped like a flying monkey this week. It was strong, and seemed to be a little choppy but on Monday, the plummet began. Actually, there was a little drop in strength on Friday, but it looked like it could simply be part of the chop, but no, down it went.
My MEE held its ground, its relative strength was good in the last pullback, when KOL dropped (Nov 9-17), so I'm OK, and looking at it now, it's still a candidate to stay long, it's still a little better tnan the S&P.
But I'm looking around again for the leaders and relative strengths. If my post is Wednesday, I'll have a report then. Just warning now, it looks like a bunch of herd indicators have peaked and are consolidating.
One I'm kind of interested in is DO. It is forming a W with the right side higher lows. 3LB says we might have a reversal to the downside but it looks on the price candles there's no commitment to that. I really like the look of the support it got at $64. I'd like to see the right side of this W extend to 67.50 to see if it has any follow-through.
@All, Mannwich, as a followup to my post on trend directions, I put up a chart of the Defense stocks: ITA for the herd leader, with UTX, BA, GD PCP, LMT, NOC RTN GR COL LLL and HON as the herd.
ReplyDeleteNot impressive at all. Looks like all are trend followers. Don't rush to enter this segment. There may be a time, but it's not now.