What’s interesting about the two crises is the dramatic difference in the ways they were able to attack their problems. While both have implemented austerity measures there have been vast differences. In particular, Ireland, embroiled in the flawed single currency Euro has been unable to devalue their currency while at the same time being forced to succumb to the pressures of foreign bankers. In Iceland, they have benefited enormously from being able to devalue the Krona. Finance Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson recently said:
“(devaluing the Krona) significantly increased our export business and got us ahead of our competitors which, without a doubt, helped us through this difficulty and continues to drag us along and eventually out.”
In addition, Iceland did not force the public to accept the losses of private bankers.
The $12 billion economy troughed in the second quarter, when output slumped an annual 7.5 percent led by a 16 percent drop in fixed investment. The government’s decision two years ago to let its lenders fail and protect taxpayers from the cost of a bank bailout may allow Iceland to recover faster than some euro members such as Ireland as exports pick up and households start spending again.
“The economy is expected to hit bottom in the next few months,” said Ingolfur Bender, an economist at Islandsbanki Research, in a note before the report was published. “The pre- conditions for growth have been re-established after a massive correction.”
MANY PEOPLE will be driven into poverty, and those already in poverty will see their situation deepen as a result of the Budget, the director of Social Justice Ireland said yesterday.
Fr Seán Healy said the claim by Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan that the Budget was progressive and had distributed the burden fairly “was patently untrue”. The Budget was “unjust, unfair and inequitable”.
The working poor, low-income families, carers, the sick, people with disabilities, children and the unemployed would “take the hit”. And senior bondholders, the corporate sector and those who benefit from tax breaks that had not been removed would “escape”.
These two examples should be fascinating to us all because they will be very clear and loud examples of what will and will not work in the long run. Stay tuned, things are about to get interesting!
Great post, Thor! What kind of nation do we want to be? Unfortunately, there is no road map for the former world economic powers, our sheer size and political polarity will hinder any kind of recovery. Instead of competing with China, we have allowed them to become our debt holders because no one wants to do the right thing.
ReplyDeleteUntil the United States acknowledges how we arrived at this place and actually does something about changing the way our country operates, we will be forever bailing out and transferring our wealth to the oligarchy that run this country.
Came across a cartoon the other day I thought I would share. Showed a man and woman sitting around a table cluttered with papers, and the man says..."with a delayed retirement and an earlier death, we should be ok!
ReplyDeleteRisk on day.
ReplyDeleteCAD green against all major currencies except AUD(Australian jobs BTE).
Home prices higher in Oct. in Toronto and Vancouver. Go figure.
Faber says U.S. Economy won't 'double dip'. video -bloomberg.com
Peter Brimelow at marketwatch.com
"Is a stock-buyer panic possible?".
A top-timer expects stock market stonger until spring 2011. Cobot is up 33% over the last 12 months. Comment section under that post is not so bullish.
Now to home town rot!
ReplyDelete"India raids ex-minister's home as corruption focus moves beyond $11 bribes". http://noir.bloomberg.com/news/regions/india.html
"News photographers climbed walls and passersby gawled as officers from India's Central Bureau of Investigation searched for clues yesterday in a $31 billion probe at the government-issued bunglow of ex-telecommunication Minister in New Delhi".
1 U$D = 44
Amagine what's happening in hinterlands and why we donot want to go back and live there permanently.
I Can
Don't know if you've catched this comment by a member of the Chinese central bank:
ReplyDelete"For now, market attention is still on Europe and for the coming 6-12 months, it will not shift to the United States,” Li said, when asked about U.S. President Barack Obama’s plan to extend tax cuts for all Americans.
“But we should be clear in our minds that the fiscal situation in the United States is much worse than in Europe. In one or two years, when the European debt situation stabilizes, attention of financial markets will definitely shift to the United States. At that time, U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar will experience considerable declines.”
Not good for you lads. Though I believe he should have added a IF in "IF/when the European debt situation stabilizes"...
Nice one, Thor. That's really the choice, isn't it? Real shared sacrifice in order to recovery more quickly or sacrifice by (and of) only the masses in order to save the bondholders, or basically the elites, thereby dragging out any true recovery for the many over the few.
ReplyDeleteU.S. benchmark fixed mortgage rates are up. - marketwatch.com
ReplyDelete@Wolfie,
ReplyDeleteNice catch. But if the bond goes down, generally the dollar goes up, so I am not sure what he is suggesting.
UUP back on the UUP-swing again?
ReplyDeleteMorning all! Down on good news again I see
ReplyDeleteThirty year auction today.
ReplyDelete@Thor,
ReplyDeleteI think the biggest difference between the two countries is that Ireland's participation in the EU is keeping it from devaluing it's currency, same thing with Greece and the other countries. The banks are being bailed out because Germany wants them bailed out.
Corruption-O-Meter.
ReplyDelete"Corruption is increasing faster in America than anywhere except Cuba, Dominca, and Burkina Faso". http://www.businessinsider.com/transparency-corruption-increased-2010-12
Least corrupt to most:
1) Denmark
2) NZ
3) Singapore
6) Canada
22)USA
Wolfie - I'm so torn by that quote! On the one hand, he's probably right, on the other hand, it's the central banker of China. . . that in itself would normally be grounds for dismissal. . . . :-)
ReplyDeleteThis is really good.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.correntewire.com/why_obama_tax_deal_republicans_insane
Interesting developments in the market. Maybe Santa is done and has left the building?
ReplyDeleteManny - how do you mean?
ReplyDeleteSeems to me as if the rally is petering out a bit. Maybe just taking a break but I was expecting more gangbusters through year-end.
ReplyDeleteIf you can, read that article I just posted above. It's VERY good. Long, but VERY good.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteIf one subscribes to the notion that keeping the stock market up until the Christmas buying season is over, then all they have to do is support it so it doesn't roll over and go down. It doesn't have to go up vigorously for that to happen and the feel good effect of having your investments not crash is still in effect.
Plus the market keeps making little new highs day by day even though the internals are deteriorating.
THIS is fantastic.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/irishman-speaks-his-mind
Good point, Denise. As long as it doesn't go down much, then the game goes onward.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteIf Obama would use the bully pulpit for getting the facts out instead of denigrating his supporters then I think that the tax cuts for the rich would have been dead on arrival.
Where are the pundits shouting from the roof tops that tax cuts do not stimulate job growth or the economy, and that the tax giveaway to the rich has added since it's inception 900 billion to the debt and will add another 900 billion going forward.
Why don't they point out that the wealthy received more than their fair share of the economic riches due to economic policies enacted by their whores in the government who are also millionaires, while the rest of the country will be paying for it for generations to come.
Now that the country is in economic fight for it's life why is there no call for shared sacrifice instead of the class warfare perpetuated by the rich who populate congress, the media and corporations?
It is a no brainer, but I do not see these arguments being made by Obama, or anyone else but Bernie Sanders.
Great articles, Manny.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteThat video needs to go viral. Love his accent! And his honesty.
"Wankin fuckin bankers!"
ReplyDeleteExactly Denise, but it appears he's listening to all of the old former Clinton-ites and trying to "move to the center", while snubbing those who had been most excited about him (his base). I think he believes that history is repeating itself and that if he only moves to the center, he'll get re-elected like Clinton. I think he's making a HUGE mistake here. These are FAR different times on just about every level. Nothing like the mid '90s.
ReplyDeleteThe other explanation is that Obama basically is center-right in his beliefs, which certainly seems to be the case, although I'm not sure the man has any real convictions or values that we can pin on him because he seems to be all over the place in that regard doing what he believes to be the most politically-expedient thing at any given time.
And, remember, most politicians are also millionaires that benefit personally from tax cuts to the top 1%. Ditto the talking heads in the MSM and other elites in the DC and NY echo chambers.
ReplyDeleteHere comes the rally after the auction which seems to have gone well.
ReplyDeleteWhich leads me to believe that most of this posturing about the tax cuts by Dems is mainly just theater. In the end, they always cave to the interests of the elites because they're an integral part of that club as well.
ReplyDeleteNibbled on some SLV at 28.01. Rallying a bit here too.
ReplyDeleteObama has never been the great socialist that his opponents have tried to paint him. He is the consummate politician, promise the sheeple one thing but deliver something quite different and then whine that the tried his hardest but just couldn't close the deal.
ReplyDeleteEven the health care reform bill was a gigantic boon to the drug and health insurance companies, even though there were some pretty good reforms in the bill, you still have to be insured (45 million are not) to get any benefits of his bill.
Manny - YES, that first article you posted was really good. Amazing isn't it? We have people on the right basically re-writing history as a cover for their own recklessness. "Tax cuts for the rich really do help the economy, look at the economy in the 80's as proof" Never mind the explosion of the deficit, that was the Democratic legislatures fault for over spending.
ReplyDeletePoint to the economy of the 90's after Bush 1 and Clinton raised taxes and you get "the economy didn't really perform as well as one would think" or "Clinton was just the beneficiary of other external positive events that allowed him to balance a budget".
You see the same thing all over the place - We only had a good economy in the 90's because Reagan laeed the foundation for it in the 80's. On and on and on.
Yes, I agree Manny. There are a few fighters out there but very few.
ReplyDeleteManny - True that, I should have prefaced my earlier comments by saying that the Democrats aren't much better.
ReplyDeleteExactly Denise, but his constant petulant colding of his supposed biggest supporters on the left is really going to hurt his re-election chances, me-thinks. People are TRULY pissed off this time and may stay home in '12 or demand a primary challenger, which would have disastrous consquences for him. I think he's misreading things big-time right now on that front.
ReplyDeleteHah - the House just failed to pass Obama's tax cuts.
ReplyDeleteI saw that Thor. This is not going to end well for anyone except the rich.
ReplyDeleteNice summary by Simon Johnson:
ReplyDeleteWhat's Wrong With Cutting Taxes?
"But Mr. Cheney was completely wrong with regard to the implication that there are no economic consequences of sustained fiscal deficits.
Talk to the Greeks (now in the International Monetary Fund’s emergency ward) or the Portuguese (who are headed in that direction). For that matter, listen to any policy maker in the European Union – they are all focused on bringing down deficits in a credible manner. And watch the European financial markets – where people are doubting and testing the fiscal credibility of all governments in the euro zone.
In fact, try persuading any responsible policy analyst anywhere in the world outside the United States that cutting American taxes from current levels will stimulate growth so much that the cut will pay for itself and end up reducing or at least controlling the fiscal deficit (the proposition of the Laffer Curve). You will be met with great skepticism."
And this
ReplyDeleteAt the same time, senior White House economic adviser Larry Summers warned Congress that failing to approve the agreement could "increase the risk that the economy would stall out and we would have a double dip."
Gee, this sounds familiar doesn't it? "Do what we say or the world will end"
The key phrase "Outside of the United States" as everyone in the US is part of the problem, not the solution. It is true 1984 Newspeak:
ReplyDeleteWar is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength (a Sarah Palin favorite), He who controls the past controls the future, etc.
We have been brainwashed as a nation to believe everything we hear repeated more than once, not matter how false the statement.
More fear mongering on the part of one of the most discredited persons of the Obama administration.
ReplyDeleteBAC up 3.67%
ReplyDeleteAnd it broke it's daily down trend line from May and is rallying off a double bottom.
ReplyDeleteBAC Daily
Volume is anemic in BAC.
ReplyDeletelook at the bifurcation in the market today . . . is that common? I can't remember the last time I saw the DOW down that much while the S&P was up.
ReplyDeleteThat's why I looked at the DJIA components and saw that BAC was leading the way.
ReplyDeleteiCan - It's going to be in the 80's here this weekend. I'll think of you! :-)
ReplyDeleteDebt drug - Do CBs really want consumers to wein-off of that. When Consumer credit goes up, markets cheers.
ReplyDelete"BOC to banks: use'some caution' on issuing consumer loans". http://www.financialpost.com
Really? If they want that, they should've raised rates yesterday.
I Can
Another article from finacialpost.com
ReplyDelete"U.S. household wealth leaps by US$ 1.2T in 3rd quarter".
Thor, Jeff, Denise, James - you guys are rich. So what's the problem? LOL
I Can
@Thor(3:13)
ReplyDeleteThank You very much. My Uncle should've choosen UCLA over UBC to do his post grad. degree in Engineering. Then we may have been in Cali. Or if maternal great- grandfather had not left during the depression.
Only problem in Canada is the winter weather, otherwise it's one of the best countries in the world to live.
I Can
ICan - Oh yes, I love Canada! We have quite a few Canadian expats here at work and they all say the same thing. Funny too, because all of them say the same exact thing when you ask why they left Canada "The weather".
ReplyDeleteI'm a desert boy myself so doubt I could handle a real winter!
Re: the increase in household wealth. I wonder how much of that wealth went to the top 2%! That's got to be ALL equities, housing and incomes are still flat to declining.
Hey Manny!!
ReplyDeleteOhio and Wisconsin’s loss of $1.2 billion in federal stimulus money for rail projects will be California, Florida and 11 other states’ gains, federal officials said on Thursday.
Ohio and Wisconsin were among the biggest winners of federal stimulus money this year to build new rail lines in their states; officials in both states had lobbied aggressively for the money in the hopes that it would create thousands of jobs and improve their transportation systems.
But that all changed last month when both states elected Republican governors who vowed to kill the train projects, arguing that they were boondoggles that would leave their states on the hook for subsidies each year to operate the trains.
Thanks for this!! ;-)
I Can,
ReplyDeleteWhat they don't tell you is that the increase of $1.2 trillion went most likely to the top 2%. That is the number that I would like to see broken out, how much did the billionaire's wealth increase vs. joe sixpack.
Sorry, Thor, I didn't see you posing the exact same question.
ReplyDeleteRally on, Garth!
ReplyDeleteTell me this is not the most ridiculous thing you've seen all day.
ReplyDeleteLenders are unfairly snubbing borrowers with poor credit scores, group alleges [Updated]
A national housing group has filed complaints with regulators against 22 lenders alleging they are violating federal policies by not providing government-backed loans to borrowers with poor credit scores.
So we have insanity from the left as well as the right.
Lucky us - where the hell is the sane middle?
Denise - How dare you! never let it happen again!!! :-)
ReplyDeletePacific Investment Management Co., which manages the world’s biggest bond fund, is raising its forecast for U.S. growth next year as policy makers pump a “massive amount” of stimulus into the economy, Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian said.
ReplyDeletePimco sees the economy growing 3 percent to 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of next year from the same period of this year. That compares with its previous estimate for 2 percent to 2.5 percent growth and the 2.2 percent gain forecast for this year by the International Monetary Fund.
Should be another banner year for equities then. Does everyone hear that sound? It's the sound of the next bubble inflating!
I Can - Thanks for the heads up on being so much richer, I have been feeling kind of strange lately and could not put my finger on why.
ReplyDeleteWell it's cuz I am rich and here I thought it was just gas...
Mangy Mutt
Thor - I always wanted to get a car and have a bubble blower attached to the roof so whenever I drove down the street there would be a trail of bubbles.
ReplyDeleteI guess Ben Bernanke always wanted a country that did the same things.
Bring on the bubbles.
Mutt
@Thor,
ReplyDeleteI was just trying to make sure that we all think with one mind!
This is good news:
ReplyDeleteFord Investing $600 Million, Hiring 1,800 at SUV Plant
Ford is the world's most profitable car company? Is America coming back?
"Ford Motor Co., the world’s most profitable automaker, is hiring 1,800 workers and spending $600 million to overhaul a factory in Louisville, Kentucky, to build small sport-utility vehicles.
The factory, which now produces the midsize Ford Explorer SUV, will begin building a redesigned version of the Escape compact utility vehicle late next year, Marcey Evans, a Ford spokeswoman, said in an interview. At that time, the plant will begin operating two shifts and employing 2,900 workers, up from one shift and 1,100 workers currently, she said. "
Indictments, really?
ReplyDeleteThree Ex-UBS Bankers Indicted in Muni Probe
"Three former UBS AG bankers were indicted Thursday for participating in a bid-rigging conspiracy to defraud government entities that sought to invest proceeds raised through municipal bonds. "
ReplyDeleteChina hiking rates tonight?
ReplyDeleteAH market cares less?
Snoozefest, before the Christmas parties start Friday night, er is it tonight.
I Can
Denise - How is this for depressing
ReplyDelete10/23/08 10/28/08 61 F BUY 100 $2.09 Cash
12/23/08 12/29/08 61 F BUY 20 $2.17 Cash
02/13/09 02/19/09 61 F BUY 80 $1.83 Cash
I sold all of that to play with FAZ/FAS. Nothing quite like trying to trade when you have no idea what you're doing. My original idea was to buy Ford was because the stock was, what I felt at the time, depressed.
Thor - Don't be too concerned about your Ford trade, we are 1.2 Trillion $$$$ Richer.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Mutt - That's right! I totally forgot about that, thank GOD! :-)
ReplyDeleteSeriously though, I knew going in that I could eventually lose most of that money, and wouldn't you know, I did!
I've decided to start dipping my toes back into trading next year. I figured I've spent the better part of the last two years listening to all the traders, I at least think I have most of the rookie bad habits cleared out of my system.
Plus, having a group of savvy traders who are helpful with questions for us junior guys is an invaluable resource!
Violence boiling over in the UK:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/10/world/europe/10britain.html?hp
Meanwhile, here in the land of the Sheep, the people yawn.
Small linkfest up for tomorrow. Life's being tough and all...
ReplyDelete@Thor
Good to hear. Keep it small, in size and number of instruments.
Good to hear from you, emmy! Looking forward to tomorrow's linkfest.
ReplyDeleteThor
ReplyDeleteFeel depressed just a short while because you are going to have lot more chances.We can wallow in self pitty before we put ourselves up.You can wallow a little bit if you like but don't judge yourself about something that it wasn't your expertise or your area, as if you naturally ought to have done above average.
Is just learning process.
What the stock teaches you?.
The stock didn't go up in one day, it was in 400 days roughly speaking.Did you keep interest every day or the stock price get you by surprise months and months later?.
If you stop following it what did you feel about your idea, did you abandon it like "oh I don't know anything about that crap" or you just "tortured yourself" because you did follow the stock price and were reinforcing your believe that you can't know that stuff because was going up and you didn't kept what you bought or you were just fearfull to buy anything?
The world was going to end at that time as Rostchild put it there was blood in the streets.
With that in mind...
What make you feel that it's price was depressed? did you feel the same for GM? Was a gut feeling (personal that appears from inside)or something that someone told you or read somewhere?
Do you have a preference for Ford cars (like a personal taste that can develop a "bias" in investing) did you ever got a GM car?.
Is related to familiar stories about old glory days for the company or your perception was anchored in the present at that very moment with no relation to the past?
Did you know that was going to go bankrupt don't you?
What did use in your mind, or what was the internal dialogue about the price was going up? Did you consider so clear in your mind so rational that it was going bankrupt that told yourself "I will be a fool if I keep these stock and I loose money, because is a sure thing that is going belly up instead I can play with another one and because I don't know too much I won't feel bad about myself if I loose".
With all this questions maybe is posible to determine if it was an intuition that you couldn't folllow because of fear or was just by chance that someone mentioned to you Ford.
Soros former partner Druckenmiller it isn't exactly an untalented guy and he talks about the intuition as an important component in the act of investing at some point.
And in a book I remember Soros mentioning that they went for very distressed companies at the beginning specially, and of course not always turn out good, so if Soros build himself from that point what make you think that the standards to you have to be harsher?
Dr Phil er I mean...
Dan
It's just your tuition, Thor. I paid mine recently as well. Learn but don't dwell. That's how I'm approaching it so I don't make the same mistakes going forward.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteStart small, use no leverage or leveraged products, set stop loss targets before you enter the trade and let your winners run.
Lesson #1
ReplyDeleteEven though I have to go and embrace the toilet and puked I don't go against the trend (unless something very particular that I find) but play small if the trend is not absolutely clear.Since nov 9 is chopping but still didn't reverse so what the market want me to do?
Get out or play the opposite.The market has to convince me that the trend changed with impulsiveness otherwise stick to my guns even,though.is.absolutely.maddening.
We tend to let it go early instead of acting as a pit bull.Draw a line as a support trend
and use always stops but losing and winning are part of the business, usually you don't hear about the first often because of narcissism, but I can assure you that people loose money too not only make money (excpet the dealers)
@Thor: Of course they killed high speed rail. It makes FAR too much sense. A high speed rail from the Twin Cities through Wisconsin to Chicago is a no-brainer, so of course it won't get done. Makes perfect sense.
ReplyDelete@Emmanuel,
ReplyDeleteWelcome back. Nice to see you.
I Can
Dastro - Thanks for sharing your insite.
ReplyDeleteMutt
@Dan,
ReplyDeleteThank you for taking the time to write those lessons.
I Can
And, by the way, that supposed $1.2 Trillion jump in "net wealth" is still more than offset by this:
ReplyDeleteZillow announced today that American home values tumbled by $1.7 trillion in the last year. If we divide that by the approximately 78 million homeowners, that’s an average of $22,000 each. Zillow says 23.2% of single family homeowners with mortgages are now under water.
And then there's this:
ReplyDeleteThe average savings of 50-somethings is only $29,000.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/08/retirement/savings_nest_egg/index.htm
Nasdaq Composite hits a new three year high.
ReplyDelete@jeff(9:13)
ReplyDeleteI read that too - lost home values. How does one estimate that? Suppose someone's home is paid off and they intent to live there for 10-20 years, does their property value matter to them? Do they base their spending habits on the "supposed" value of their homes?
I Can
Oh no is not a lesson really I'm no one, just my point of view.
ReplyDeleteI have my tuition paid in 1992 in Argentina, yes scary; it took me 3 years and something just to get even.
And then put the money in something more stable like opening a bussines.Researching, making a bussines model that has a chance very thought out and then what? The 1999-2000 crisis.Oh well.
That's a lesson that learned to apply to myself if the stocks are my thing and I have an edge there then just move ahead in that direction, that's what I started doing recently.If I'm deeply convinced that I have a chance following my passion just stick to my guns and do it.Lesson learned.
Dan
@I Can: Probably not that much, depending on how much other debt and savings they have. I know my parents, who recently retired in FL and own their house mortgage-free don't care. But for those that have big mortgages and maybe a tapped HELOC, they probably care quite a bit.
ReplyDeleteDastro - Wow so many great questions! I bought all of those stocks in the early fall of 2008. I had heard a piece on NPR about how certain smart individuals made their fortunes during the depression and afterward, by buying up the stock of very large, established companies, like GE, Ford, GM, Bell, etc. The rationale was that those companies were not likely to be going out of business anytime soon. I thought I'd try the same thing. I started out with 4 or 5 thousand, I can't remember the exact amount. I went into buying stocks, being comfortable with losing the entire amount. That would be unlikely, but if I lost 5,000, I'd be fine with that. I'd chalk it up to the price of the experience. So I bought a ton of DOW stocks. Ford, GM (oops!) GE, Dow Chemical, Citibank, and AIG. I let all of those stocks sit for about three months, through the winter, I kept buying more as time went on - as you can see from the trades I posted on Ford. In early April I started hanging out with a guy at work who day traded, he had (in retrospect) gotten very lucky trading FAZ for many months. I saw him make a few thousand dollars in a couple of days and I was hooked. I sold all of my other stocks and bought some FAZ. We went back and forth between FAZ and FAS mostly in FAZ, mostly losing money. This was in the summer of 2009 when everyone was uber bearish. I got hooked into that sentiment, mostly from ZH and lost tons of money.
ReplyDeleteI eventually gave up toward the end of last year and cashed out my holdings. I think my total loss was about $3200 of the initial $5000.
I don't know that I have the stomach for day trading, for one, I have a full time job which would make that very difficult, second, I don't have the temperament to buy and sell that quickly. I think I'm more of a swing trader. I'm attracted to the way Rock will follow a company that is in the news, BP, and X. I thought to myself at the time of the BP spill that it was a good buying opportunity I've mentioned before about my thoughts on Apple Stock in 1998 and PG&E in 2000. I think I'd be most interested in being a buy and hold for a little while. Not something I'm going to have to pay attention to all of the time. We have way too many animals to have the time for that :-)
ReplyDeleteGood you wanted to follow a fact which is different to smart ass ideas that populate the ether everywhere.
ReplyDeleteThe fact was that in very bad moments people make good money sticking to brand names.
You got F, GM, GE, DOW, C and AIG in a previous cycle.
The failure rate was 16,66% (only GM didn't work).
So in varying degrees all of the rest would have make you money.
So the next blood in the streets moment I'm sure you are going to remember that strategy.
What's the enemy? Greed. You consider that you knew less than the other guy which is probably right from a technical level but is not the brain so to speak that allow us to make money is our guts.
You saw the guy making a few thousand in a few days and the greed impulses convince your rationality that the guy had a better strategy, clouding your rationality in one critical point, your rationality got overwhelmed with the pressure that greed exerts and couldn't make the question: why a guy that makes several thousand dollars in a few days works is working with me at the company? Maybe is just something out of the ordinary but not consistent through time otherwise he wouldn't be working here.
That's the problem with rationality when basic impulses appear on stage it always surrender to them.Think Obama as your rationality and Republicans as the urgent needs.(Just kidding)
On the radio greed surely kick in too, but you have facts that told you that worked before for this people in the 30's.
Buying FAZ or FAS what kind of support has from the past? There are not facts that can tell you that is time tested at least once in a previous cycle, is just a flashy thing that maybe works...but maybe not. So risk increased a lot more.
The day trader is probably a brilliant guy but the brain is not the main component to win, is our guts.
Isaac Newton (Yes the gravity guy) lost like 12,000 pounds couple centuries ago using his big brain.
And there's a young actress that for some movie invested $ 10,000 less than two years ago and made like 500,000.She is the one to pay attention to, not me the day trader or Isaac Newton. Get some interview about what she did and post it so we all can learn.
Dan
Dan - Brilliant! Thank you so much! I absolutely agree, had I trusted my gut and gone with my original plan, I'd have made out well. Also, learning not to rush in or out of a trade all the time.
ReplyDeleteThere's not one way to success you just explore what makes you comfortable and develop your thing irrespective of others.
ReplyDeleteAnd good luck!
Dan
Hi Emmie! Welcome back!
ReplyDelete@Denise10:58 thks. Sry for the delay, busy these days. Indeed hadn't noticed the strange relation he draws between US bonds and dollar. Maybe it's Chinese Economics 101. Better get used to it if so:p
ReplyDelete