Greece's Credit Rating May Be Cut by S&P on EU Rules
Asia Markets: China coal-price cap not much help for power firms
Pentagon official sees mounting budget pressures
Small-business owners cry foul over safe-toy law
Qantas takes legal action on A380
U.S. Retail Chains Report a Robust November
Amazon: WikiLeaks Violated Terms
Tax Breaks for Bailout Recipients Spark Debate
China passenger train hits 300 mph, breaks record
(Where's our high speed train? China completes 824 miles, Fresno just breaking ground 65 miles)
Unemployed and likely to stay that way
How about that short squeeze in the Dollar. Not.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link fest, Thor.
That's weird that the China rail link is a different font and color.
ReplyDelete"What was particularly eye-catching was the jump in the unemployment rate to 9.8%, a sign that more people started to look for jobs, but couldn’t find them. The rest of the report was mixed, but still disappointing. The average workweek did not change. Average hourly earnings did not increase, though there was an upward revision to October"
ReplyDeleteMore people looking for jobs but could not find them caused the unemployment numbers to go up.
US Jobs, What the analysts say
Morning all!
ReplyDeleteWeak. Ass. Jobs. Number = More QE. Rally on Wayne!
ReplyDeleteThe doomsayers over at ZH going to have to field day today with this jobs number. I wonder if BR will now change his tune at all?
ReplyDeleteAnd look at the that. The market barely moves on the news. Priced in? Or market now digesting thinking QE-train rolls onward? We are going to witness the biggest commodities bubble in the history of mankind of this continues.
ReplyDeleteThey should not be pointing at retail sales as any indication of a recovery, we don't make very many things in the US anymore, like clothing, electronics, toys, etc. And we can't build a new economy based on retailers selling Chinese, or other Asian made goods, or retail jobs.
ReplyDeleteThat is the problem with any kind of stimulus money is that we are not putting Americans back to work (with the huge exception of infrastructure jobs which are often seasonal and temporary) as the goods Americans buy are not produced here. We are making sure that China's economy keeps humming along.
The market is actually back to unch and even up a little after the initial sell off.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteI think many of the doom sayers are "teh unemployed".
Exactly (on both posts), denise. Perversely a strong number probably would have sold off the markets. A weak one has peeps thinking more QE, so we might get a rally. Commodities like it.
ReplyDeleteIn fairness the "doomsayers", some of them have been right about a few things. I would put myself in between the cognos' of the world and the doomsayers, but tilting pretty bearish on our economic prospects over the short and mid-term. The market's a whole different animal.
ReplyDeleteI'd have thought the market would have reacted poorly to these numbers.
ReplyDeleteFrom the comments at ZH, pretty funny:
ReplyDeleteSo now the BLS has credibility here at ZH?? Every month the BLS is ridiculed as a propaganda machine but now that the news is bad, ZH treats the information as if it has been vetted by TD himself?
You guys have to see the inssanity of your approach here; you can't be this damn blind.
If this information is valid then the next BLS or other agency report that is produced which invalidates your thesis, then you should proclaim it to be accurate and telling as well.
So which is it TD? Is the BLS to be believed or not? Man up and take a position.
Hah, I think the incessant negativity of the "doomsayers" says more about their base personality than the healthy of the economy. The shitty economy has just give then perma pessimists something to focus on to.
ReplyDeleteAnd then when you put this number up against the fact that Congress won't or can't pass an extension of unemployment bene's, this situation for the unemployed looks pretty grim to me.
ReplyDelete@Thor,
ReplyDeleteIt did, in early market trading.
S&P with pre-market trading
That IS a good one, denise. I was only tweaking BR about this morning due to his recent "zombie bear" comments. One can be bearish on our economic prospects without thinking the world is ending or tying it to the markets at all. I think BR started drinking the "recovery" meme too early after looking at his recent personal account statements that were likely pretty flush.
ReplyDeleteFunny that someone is calling TD out.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteThe stock market and the economy are two different animals that inhabit the same plane of existence.
Just like people confuse a real bricks and mortar company with it's stock. They are not the same and I believe it is why people have this huge disconnect about the markets.
They can't separate the two, i.e., how can a stock with lousy fundamentals go up?
It's a fair point that he should respond to....
ReplyDelete@Denise: Yes, but BR has been recently buying the "recovery" meme in some respects, I think, with many of his recent posts, so he can't cop out now about that. The bottom line is I'm sure that shit's never been better in his neck of the woods, but people in the biz need to get out more and check out what's happening in the real world from time to time.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteI dismiss much of what he says and pay more attention to what he does.
One small anecdotal personal survey that I’ve often used to ascertain the health of the white collar job market is this site and their job postings for recruiters. The good news is that there are many more postings for jobs than I’ve seen in the past 2-3 years right now, but here’s the thing – how many of them will ultimately be filled now or ever? It’s often common to have companies post jobs and “go fishing” for candidates and/or try to stockpile their database for future needs. If we see these jobs actually get filled and many are “new” jobs, then I just might buy the “recovery” meme. To me, that would mean companies are indeed ramping up again for a “real” or at least “quasi” recovery like the last one.
ReplyDeletehttp://jobs.ere.net/
Good point, denise.
ReplyDeleteHere's a thought - might this data be "massaged" to politically incent Congress to move on the unemployment insurance extension, as well as give Ben & co more cover for more QE?
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteThe question to ask is what determines "recovery"? 8% unemployed? GDP 6%? Retail sales? A combination of the three?
No, I don't think so as the claims numbers and the actual unemployment numbers are not going in the same direction. But the unemployment numbers were skewed because of more people entering the work force looking for jobs. I have always wondered how they determine that number, more applications received that are reported to the BLS? Because obviously I don't tell the BLS I am now looking for a job.
ReplyDelete@denise: I think it's a combo and somewhat the adage, "we'd know it when we see it". And here's the thing - there were A LOT of unhappy people that weren't buying the LAST recover when were at 5% unemployment largely because the QUALITY & PAY of many of the jobs sucked and many in the corporate world are getting pushed harder and harder for less pay, so even many of those who are employed aren't the most content bunch in the world. All this (being told no raises or mayble paltry ones), while watching those in the executive suite and on Wall Street take home more and more of the productivity gains each year. So if that's the case, we have a LONG way to go now before most people in the country buys the CURRENT "recovery" meme.
ReplyDelete@Denise: That's not what CR is saying:
ReplyDeleteSummary
Perhaps the worst news was the jump in the unemployment rate to 9.8% without an increase in the participation rate. If the participation rate had increased, at least that would mean people were becoming more confident and rejoining the labor force. Instead the Labor Force Participation Rate was flat at 64.5% and this is a very low level. Note: This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force (here is the graph in the galleries of the participation rate).
Most of the underlying details of the employment report were weak. The positives included small upward revisions to the September and October payroll reports, a slight increase in average hourly earnings, and a slight decline in part time workers.
The negatives include the unemployment rate increasing to 9.8%, few payroll jobs added (only 39,000 jobs), the decline in the employment-population ratio, the steady participation rate at a very low level, and the increase in workers unemployed for over 26 weeks.
• Earlier Employment post: November Employment Report: 39,000 Jobs, 9.8% Unemployment Rate
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteYes, that is correct about the participation rate, but people entering the work force cause the unemployment number to rise if they cannot find a job which I believe are two different things.
See my link from 9:19 where the analysts are discussing this.
Simon Johnson weighs in on our pal Jamie Dimon:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-johnson/jamie-dimon-becoming-too-_b_791518.html
Gotcha now, Denise.
ReplyDeleteParticipation rate is the actual number of people working vs. the people who are actively looking for a job.
ReplyDeleteIn 2004 they got rid of the capital requirements and that is how all of these banks were able to lever up to 33 to 1 which is one of the reasons the credit and housing bubbles were created.
ReplyDeleteLaissez Faire! We all know how allowing banks to regulate themselves turned out. The banks levered up so that they could make even more money until the whole thing blew up.
This is a good article that explains what happened:
The Reckoning
Agency’s ’04 Rule Let Banks Pile Up New Debt
On that bright spring afternoon, the five members of the Securities and Exchange Commission met in a basement hearing room to consider an urgent plea by the big investment banks.
They wanted an exemption for their brokerage units from an old regulation that limited the amount of debt they could take on. The exemption would unshackle billions of dollars held in reserve as a cushion against losses on their investments. Those funds could then flow up to the parent company, enabling it to invest in the fast-growing but opaque world of mortgage-backed securities; credit derivatives, a form of insurance for bond holders; and other exotic instruments.
Just reading the history again gives me heartburn.
ReplyDeleteIt's awful, isn't it, Denise? What's worse is that none of it has really been fixed. The same thing's going to happen again at some point, or worse. All profits for them during the flush times and then no downside when it blows up. The sucker taxpayer shares all of the downside for you. What's not to like if you're them?
ReplyDeleteA GREAT post over at TBP:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/wikileak-gs-quote-of-the-day/#comments
@Jeff,
ReplyDeleteRe commodities bubble - Can they allow $100 oil bubble and think economy can improve?
Gold and Silver - who cares. Let some nuts hoard those. Myself included.
I Can
Manny - hah, I see you tweaking BR. I also see many of the perma bears are out in force today.
ReplyDeletePK LAYS INTO the O man. I hate to say it, but he's right. Obama has proven to be VERY weak, a TERRIBLE negotiator, and certainly not a fighter for those who got him elected.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/opinion/03krugman.html
"U.S. judge orders destruction of Monsanto GMO sugar beet seed plants". www.theblobeandmail.com/
ReplyDeleteThat's in California.
The green revolution in India(massive increase in food production) came at a huge cost.
Good/bad are always two side of a story.
Lot of cancer cases - lot of DDT.
No free lunch. Everyone is in a hurry to GET RICH TODAY! at the expense of future generations.
I Can
Sadly, I believe your last sentence summed it up, I Can.
ReplyDeleteI've often labeled it "competing" (if that's what you call this) ourselves into oblivion".
ReplyDeleteManny - reading the NYT article now, very good! I'd have to agree with PK as well. Have been wondering what all this cost cutting is going to do for retail spending. I think it will be fascinating to see if O can even win his parties nomination again, I won't vote for him again, he's abandoned the country to the wolves.
ReplyDelete@Thor: I think he could indeed face a primary challenge if this continues. All hell would break lose for the Dem party, but maybe it would be best if it did?
ReplyDeleteHere's what really hit home for me.
ReplyDeleteJust as a reminder, over the next 75 years the cost of making those tax cuts permanent would be roughly equal to the entire expected financial shortfall of Social Security.
So we could fix Social Security by allowing those tax cuts to expire, but the wealthy need their extra 3% so forget it. I've said this before, and I'll say it again, this isn't going to end well. If you look at the history of the country, we've tended to have these massive swings between conservative and liberal societies, we've been swung so far to the right the last 20 years that our snap back to the left is going to be incredible.
@Thor: If they want to extend the tax cuts for the wealthy, I would also argue that the wealthy could afford to pay MORE into SS (well above the current $106K cut-off) and/or not receive the bene's when they retire and either of those things alone or together would likely fix the problem. There's something immoral about someone like Bill Gates receiving his social security payments. Call me crazy....
ReplyDeleteManny - Couldn't agree more. It's tragic, depressing, maddening :-(
ReplyDeleteThe return of the "green shoots" Fed PR campaign on "60 Minutes"? Ben to back on the PR offensive this Sunday.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0227646720101202
Looking at UUP today. Quite the drop in recent days. A weaker jobs report has to bode better for the Fed's desire for a weaker dollar, no?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/payrolls-huge-miss-39k-compared-consensus-150k-98-unemployment-rate
ReplyDeleteDenise - Ah! Got it :-). Funny isn't it? When they numbers agree with their pre conceived opinions they're accurate, when they don't, they're either cooked, or outdated. That's a little TOO transparent don't you think? :-)
ReplyDeleteAgree with Manny, it's possible to be bullish in the short term without being bullish about the whole economy, or the entire future of the economy.
Go Apple!
ReplyDeleteChristians Hit Back at Apple for Blocking 'Anti-Gay' App
The app contains the text of the Manhattan Declaration, which urges Christians to "resist sexual immorality," continuing: "We acknowledge that there are those who are disposed towards homosexual and polyamorous conduct and relationships, just as there are those who are disposed towards other forms of immoral conduct."
Ron Santo, RIP.
ReplyDeleteRon Santo dead at 70
Chicago Cubs icon failed to reach Hall of Fame
Legendary Chicago Cubs player and broadcaster Ron Santo died Thursday night in Arizona. He was 70.
Friends of Santo's family said the North Side icon lapsed into a coma on Wednesday before dying Thursday. Santo died of complications from bladder cancer, WGN-AM 720 reported.
"He absolutely loved the Cubs," said Santo's broadcast partner, Pat Hughes. "The Cubs have lost their biggest fan."
Hughes noted that with all the medical problems Santo had--including diabetes with resulting leg amputations, his heart and bladder cancer--"he never complained. He wanted to have fun. He wanted to talk baseball."
Wow, Denise. I didn't know he was ill. 70 is pretty young these days.
ReplyDelete@Jeff,
ReplyDeletere UUP check out a 99er guy's charts at cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
U$D, Copper, and SPX charts. Resistence.
But, with UUP, you'r fighting the FED.
Looks like U.S. recovery theme is out of the window for now.
I Can
Thor - I am Bull(ish) for now and as long as we just stay on the surface of things - Unemployement, housing, banking, national dept... ect.... ect ...ect. And as long as there is "free" money and people pulling strings on that free money, it seems silly to not be bullish.
ReplyDeleteOver all as far as our economic and social health is concerned, I am very Bear(ish) and once we dip below the surface on any number of issues, I think it will be a quick trip to the bottom.
But who know how long things will continue to stay aflot?
Yup yup, bullish short term, (However long that is) but bearish long term.
Mangy Mutt
Denise - hah! Apple is pretty good about nixing the offensive crap. It's not like the Christians don't get anything from Apple.
ReplyDeleteApple Cans 'Jesusizer' iPhone App
Apple has rejected an iPhone application that lets users put their faces on images of Jesus and other religious figures, Wired reports. The company—crucified in the press last month for approving the "Baby Shaker" app—told the makers of "Me So Holy" that the app contained objectionable content, a charge they firmly deny.
We "are disappointed that this otherwise creative, freethinking company would reject such a positive and fun application,” wrote one of the developers, who also made the popular "Animalizer" app. "The message to developers is that they should think inside the box, rather than outside it.”
@Thor,
ReplyDeleteMarkets are going to do what they want when they want to do it. The economy plays out in the background, driving the market ultimately, but seldom concurrently.
For instance, much of the stock market meltdown was due to the mass dumping of stocks by hedge funds who had too much leverage and it was one of those negative feed back loops; the lower the prices, the more their leverage moved against them leading them to sell which leads to lower prices. Then the mutual funds follow suit, because investors are afraid and start dumping.
With regard to hedge funds, they were forced into dumping, regardless of the economy.
But people lump all of this together as if the economy was the sole driver of the stock market meltdown, and now refuse to acknowledge that because we have many structural problems the stock markets and business can improve despite these problems. It is not black or white, there are many shades of grey.
Santo used to be one of my favorite players when I was a kid and still into baseball. He had life long diabetes, too.
ReplyDeleteThanks, I Can. Having similar thoughts about UUP now. Very hard to hold anything past a few days in this environment.
ReplyDeleteManny - one of these days you're going to have to explain Michele Bachmann to us :-P
ReplyDeleteIsn't that blasphemy? Putting your face on Jesus' body? Sanctimonious bastards.
ReplyDeleteVideo Barbie Gets FBI Warning
ReplyDeleteI am so glad that the FBI is keeping our little girls safe from Video Barbie.
Beware of Barbie.
That seems to be the message from the FBI after an internal memo reportedly leaked from the agency's Sacramento field office this week.
The memo (PDF) warns that Barbie Video Girl, a doll with a built-in video camera capable of recording for about 30 minutes, is a "possible child pornography production method."
It is sad to see that most people who call themselves Christian, get locked into church dogma.
ReplyDeleteIf they read and understood anything about the Man they want to emulate, they would realize He talked about execptance of all and not what the church teaches; We except all who believe like we do.
If someone has multipal spouses or lovers and they are able to keep their household healthy and happy, what diffrence does it make to Christians?
Oh well we all need to feel we are superior to other....
Mangy Mutt
When I see those warnings on every video camera, cell phone, and camera then I will take them seriously.
ReplyDelete@Thor: Here's my explanation: she's bat shit crazy and represents a swath of people here in Minneapolis in the burbs and exurbs that are equally bat shit crazy. How's that?
ReplyDeleteShe's got those crazy eyes. Almost appears as if her body's been inhabited by aliens.
Excuse me, not Minneapolis, the city per se, but the burbs and exurbs, namely the people who hardly ever venture into the "scary" city confines because they don't like "those people" (wink, wink).
ReplyDeleteExactly Mutt. The truth lies in one's DEEDS, not words or dogma.
ReplyDeleteThor - It makes me wonder.
ReplyDeleteIf Jesus were here today and he had an I'phone with a Jesusizer app, would He put His own face up?
What would be funny is if Jesus put up a picture of Mohamed on his Jesusizer App...
Mutt
Retailers still going up, up and up. UA (Under Armour) new 52-week high. Look at that chart. Ripe for a short soon? Hhhhhmmmmm....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=UA:US#chart
I have noticed more people working out in my gym lately but seriously, look at that chart. Much cheaper workout gear can be had. I just bought some decent shorts and workout shirts for less than $10 at Target.
Manny - Understood. Of course, we have Daryl Issa so I suppose we're even.
ReplyDeleteMutt - hahahahaha
Look at the market creep it's way back to green. See how resilient it is? The market knows things are all better! . . . . joking
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteDoesn't she represent that area where all the fundie Catholics live? We know people who have a huge extended family up there and they have their own priest who lives in their compound.
@Thor: Yes, but she's much crazier than Issa. Trust me on this one.
ReplyDelete@Denise: I belive that's the case, yes, but what's funny is one of her kids works for Americorps I believe, which is an organization that she has widely derided in the past.
Also, her elections haven't always been easy ones (she nearly lost in '06 and '08, I believe), as she's come close to losing a couple of time, so it's pretty evenly divided, even in her own district, which means I'm guessing that some of them are absolutely horrified that she is their rep.
Green on the Nasdaq
ReplyDeleteI have to say, quite a few retailers' charts are looking ripe for a short soon, as many have gotten way ahead of themselves, I'm thinking post-holidays? What does everyone else think? I know that Rock likes the high end retailers like TIF and COH but even those guys are going to be ripe soon, me-thinks.
ReplyDeleteManny - I think retail sales might disappoint. Certainly at this point I can't see January and Februaries labor numbers coming in very good after the temp workers are let go.
ReplyDeleteAnd who's paying full price for anything anymore? I can't imagine that profit margins will come in that great, unless, of course, many are monkeying with their numbers, which has been my premise all along. I take nothing at face value at this point. LOL.
ReplyDeleteAn excellent post over at PK's blog where he publishes a letter by Kevin O'Rourke re: the crisis in Ireland.
ReplyDeletehttp://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/02/ireland-agonistes/#more-14889
@Dss
ReplyDeleteBrock, Rogers, Williams, Santo, Banks.
Yep. I used to skip school and take the el to the Park.
Ron was a stand-up guy.
Yes. It was a great time for the Cubs.
ReplyDeleteRock, check your yahoo email for a message.
So we were in the same city growing up. What a small world.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteYep, added to TIF this evening. Added to Ford too.
Rock - well I'm glad I was able to do my part to help you out with F ;-)
ReplyDelete@Dss:
ReplyDeleteI hope you don't hold that against me.....
A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away...
ReplyDeleteI may be dumb, but I'm not dumb enough to short the likes if TIF or COH now, but I might be dumb enough to do it with other retailers and maybe even them in the coming months.
ReplyDeleteOIL, close to $90, yet CAD red against all major currencies? What's up with that?
ReplyDeleteI Can
Hello guys. Quite busy these days, and I admit, frustrated by this damn correction that didn't come.
ReplyDeleteI'm planning to contribute to a double Christmas present for those banksters:
1)buying some physical silver, as per Max Keiser's call (update on this move @ZH)
2)participating in the "bank run" initiative. The idea is many people withdrawing money from their bank on the same day, in this case that's December 7th. The movement is growing worldwide:
Facebook group for the US:REVOLUTION! StopBanque U.S.A 12/07/2010 You lads are not doing that good. Only 460 attending.
Facebook group for France:REVOLUTION ! LE 7 DECEMBRE ON VA TOUS RETIRER NOTRE ARGENT DES BANQUES !(meaning:Revolution! On December 7th, we're all withdrawing our money from banks).
Nearly 33k are planning to "attend" to this event.
What you guys think about this move? I hope it has enough of an impact to be relayed in the MSM, and lead to further more elaborate steps in the right direction:away from the banks.
Some (obviously objective) reactions found on MSM:
Would a mass cash withdrawal bring down the banks?
French ministers and bankers warn against Eric Cantona protest
BTW, thks Rock for yesterday post;)
What I wouldn't give for a Riggio's pizza these days....
ReplyDelete@Mannwich: I made a lot of money shorting BJ when it flipped the bird July/end. But these patterns I'm looking at in the retail sector don't look like the same setup with large lead-in volume then disappointment.
But my favorite short X is setting up again. It's relative strength has started to turn negative, so it's moving up more slowly than the S&P. And the last couple of days, the volume's been petering off, and look at the almost dojiis. It looks like it can't make it over 51 and change.
Yes, I'm talking myself into it.....
Wolfstreet - I am not overly surprised this is all of the correction we got.
ReplyDeleteAlthough I thought it was going to last a couple days longer and was taken aback by how quickly and much it rallied back.
Oh well, one of these years we will get a real correction, I just hope I am around to experience it.
Mangy Mutt
Rock (3:41)- And "Yes, I'm talking myself into it..... "
ReplyDeleteYou know you are doing everything right and under normal (Non -Fed Funded Market) you would have probably made some money.
Mangy Mutt
Look at that. I hit the gym for a quick workout and I come back to find we end the day green AGAIN. Incredible market.
ReplyDeleteMannwich - No kidding on how incredible this market has been.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't it be truly sad if all these silly shinanigans by the fed's and banks work out and next year the economy starts to really pick up and we see nothing but growth and prosperity for the next 20 years.
NO I have not started drinking for the weekend...
Mutt
Wolfie - I'm not sure about that. We had something similar here not long ago - Huffington (from huffington post) started a movement to have people close their accounts at the big banks and move their money to small local banks. I don't think that movement ever got much traction. :-(
ReplyDelete@Thor: It's clear that most people can't be bothered with such trivialities. Give them their "bread & circuses" (and i-Thingys) and nothing else matters. We are a largely docile, unthinking culture. Right now, anyway.
ReplyDeleteManny - Myself included. I need to get off my ass and close my WFB accounts already.
ReplyDelete@No Kidding
ReplyDeleteIt's OK. I started for you.
I too am still full of bull.....but I'm gonna watch that X. I've kept a little powder dry just waiting for that one.
@ICan
Before you nibble into NEM, better wait for a pullback in the 60 minute chart. Or, if you think you might pee your pants waiting, at least get a pullback in the 15 minute.
@ICan
ReplyDeletehit the post button my mistake...
just wanted to tell you I went back to that tandoor place and had the mutton masala, and some kind of mixed vegetable with dark gold-colored sauce
oooohhhhhh, gold, my prrresssssssssciousss....
and 2 garlic nan's for 5.50 $D. That's about $3.95 U$D.
and it was the best I've ever had.
Just wanted to make you jealous.
I think this is one of the most important info for me.
ReplyDeleteAnd i'm glad reading your article. But want to remark on some general things, The web site style is wonderful, the articles is really great : D. Good job, cheers
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