It looks like the second mouse indeed got the cheese.
Reaction to the Republican take over of the House has been muted. Let's see how that plays out today. All eyes are on SPY 120 and SP-500 1200.
Cotton Clothing Price Tags to Rise
Synthetic linings. Smaller buttons. Less Italian fabric. And yes, even more polyester. Unusually high cotton prices have apparel makers scrambling to keep down costs, but consumers be warned: cotton clothing will be getting more expensive.
Record Cotton Prices ‘Endanger’ China Textile Makers, CFLP Says
Allow sugar, cotton exports, says Pawar
A new cop on Wall Street?
Eric Schneiderman "Sheriff of Wall Street"
NEW YORK (AP) -- A Democratic state senator who vowed to protect the interests of everyday New Yorkers beat a Republican prosecutor Tuesday in the race to be New York's next attorney general.
Maybe Schneiderman will follow in the foot steps of the now disgraced Spitzer:
As attorney general, Spitzer prosecuted cases relating to corporate white collar crime, securities fraud, internet fraud and environmental protection. He most notably pursued cases against companies involved in computer chip price fixing, investment bank stock price inflation, predatory lending practices by mortgage lenders, fraud at American International Group, and the 2003 mutual fund scandal. He also sued Richard Grasso, the former chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, claiming he had failed to fully inform the board of directors of his deferred compensation package, which exceeded $140 million.
Will the second mouse get the cheese?
ReplyDeleteI put in a bid for the Bugs Bunny cartoons, but MGM told me to go pound sand.
ReplyDeleteIt was a pretty good bid....I thought.
Well, we'll see who gets that asset. I didn't have any interest in the Bond movies.
Tepid, tepid, tepid. Me-thinks the bulls need to make their case fairly soon.
ReplyDeleteWe are waiting for the FOMC statement which is this afternoon. 2:15 et?
ReplyDeleteHey, Mannwich: I had a couple of questions from your post on the insider trading:
ReplyDelete1. There is a timeframe that insider trades must be reported. I looked around and can't find it, but to the best of my recollection, it is 1 quarter. did you find that information in your research?
2. I cant remember what the other question was. Sigh. It's hell to get old. It may have been something about the sells: did you find anything unusual in the reports or performance of those stocks? But maybe that wasn't the question.....
From Bloomberg:
ReplyDeleteMarket Consensus Before Announcement
The FOMC announcement for the November 2-3 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. Market focus, however, will be on how much the Fed decides to expand its balance sheet in a second round of quantitative easing. But in recent days, more analysts and economists-following the lead of some FedSpeak dissention-have questioned whether additional expansion has more costs than benefits. There is plenty of room for a Fed surprise in what it chooses to do.
Definition
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the policy-making arm of the Federal Reserve. It determines short-term interest rates in the U.S. when it decides the overnight rate that banks pay each other for borrowing reserves when a bank has a shortfall in required reserves. This rate is the fed funds rate. The FOMC also determines whether the Fed should add or subtract liquidity in credit markets separately from that related to changes in the fed funds rate. The Fed announces its policy decision (typically whether to change the fed funds target rate) at the end of each FOMC meeting. This is the FOMC announcement. The announcement also includes brief comments on the FOMC's views on the economy and how many FOMC members voted for and how many voted against the policy decision. Why Investors Care
@Rock: That must have been someone else's post, not mine? Or maybe I'm just getting old and forgot? That's certainly possible.
ReplyDeleteI think that came from Dan.
ReplyDeleteHere's an interesting article:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/us-dollar-canadian-dollar-energy-sector/11/3/2010/id/30918?from=ameritrade&camp=syndication&medium=portals
The author points out that compared with Y2K, we now have 12% fewer stocks to trade. And in the number we can trade, there are "other" vehicles. I find that very interesting. So why isn't the market up by 12% over Y2K?
I think one of the links from here pointed out the Aussie market, and how the increase in capitalization was due to the financial sector; I'm guessing this is true in the US with the investments you can make in indices etc.
Also the author points out that dollar-based assets are quite cheap now (you think?) and that assets backed by hard materials are even cheaper. I see today, ANR and JRCC are off 506%, NEM is of 2.6% (but my favorite short X is up 0.7%, go figure). Anyway, he's saying dollar-backed materials sector is under-invested.
That's 5-6%, meaning "5 to 6 percent".
ReplyDeleteMorning all, so much for my huge rally.
ReplyDeleteWaiting on the Fed (yet AGAIN, Benny must LOVE it) or wander in the wilderness for a while until the implications of last night sink in?
ReplyDeleteGold led the way up maybe it will lead the way down.
ReplyDelete@Rock:I believe you're referring to this chart that I posted yesterday. Long story short, I've found a good timing correlation between the insiders selling and subsequent market corrections, since Nov2009. To answer your questions:
ReplyDelete1.Timeframe: according to the SEC website:"In general, changes in ownership are reported on Form 4 and must be reported to the SEC within two business days (this reporting time frame became effective on August 29, 2002)."
Now your other timeframe related question was report date vs effective sell date. This Barrons page from which the insider transactions chart is taken states that "The tables highlight companies that filed with the SEC through last Wednesday.". Therefore, I've tried to identify the plots on their chart, and correlate it with the corresponding week ending each wednesday. eg, data for the last plot on the chart represents the ratio for the week of Thursday 21/10/2010 to Wednesday 27/10/2010.
2.Individual stocks: I haven't digged through individual cases. Neither have I studied any fundamental data on that insiders "indicator".
Basically,the conclusion of my chart is that if history repeats,we're due for a correction pretty soon.
This truly shows the cognitive dissonance that is out there.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/02/election-results-2010-live_n_777429.html
"Who's to blame for the economy? Bankers (34%), Bush (29%), Obama (24%). Of those who blame bankers, Republicans hold an 11 point advantage."
ReplyDeleteM might be looking ripe for a shorting opportunity. Thoughts? Me-thinks retail is going to be flat at best this Christmas season, especially as unemployment bene's expire after 11/30 (unless extended again, which I highly doubt now).
ReplyDeleteLot's of people talking about a correction coming.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteIt could break out either way.
A decisive change in direction either way would be nice.
ReplyDeleteMannwich - I am of the belief that Christmas sales are not going to be that good. There seems to be more hype then usual (If you can believe that) About buying stuff for Christmas. Some stores are already putting out their Christmas stuff, heck there are even Christmas commercials on tv.
ReplyDeleteMost people have all the junk they need and as you mention about unemployement benifits.
I guess we will have to wait and see how things go after Black Friday though.
Mutt
Thor (12:34) - Not that I want to buy anything on the long side right now, but it seems like people have been talking about a (ANY) correction coming for a long time. And as Denise said, this could break either way.
ReplyDeleteI am getting into possition to make a small move (VXX) but will wait for things to move. And I know it is all just a guessing game right now, but I am guessing that the market rallies back to green after FOMC, if it does then I believe it stays that way for the rest of the week.
But what do I know....
Mutt
@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteThanks for the response. T will try harder to give credit where credit is due. Even during this credit crunch.
I'm thinking that in the retail sector, we may see gains from the snob-appeal stocks, and the rest flat, as you say. I'm looking for SAKS to go up because of the impending buyout, and TIF to go up.
Another sotry for Dss: I was back to the US in June/July, and a friend here gave me her Mikimoto pearl earrings to get fixed in the US. I did, and after I collected the repair, I paused outside TIF and looked in. Someone from inside came out, greeted me, asked me inside to have a cappuccino, and I did. I didn't buy anything, and later another friend pointed out I was carrying that blue bag from Miki's. Now, *That's* marketing! Segmenting, positioning, and targeting!. Yes, I think TIF's going up. The coffee was good.
I think it's likely the Solar sector will come under pressure. It's sad, but I think the oil reserves and coal and recently found nat gas will take care of our needs for 50s of years. Not a good sign--makes solar a boutique.
I see FSLR has pulled back, but I'm thinking a pullback to around 100-110 may be happening.
Rock - Agree 100%. I drive through Beverly Hills every morning on my way in to work. You should see the place at Christmas, it's like Santa threw up all over an entire city.
ReplyDeleteLast year it was pretty dead though, we'll see how this year turns out. I'm with Manny and Mutt though, I don't think it's going to be a very good Christmas shopping season.
Rock - Thanks, now I know were to get free coffee.
ReplyDeleteNever mind I have never even been by, into or around a Tiffanies, SAKS or even heard of a Mikimoto's, but maybe they will give me a free coffee just to go away.
Mutt
Sheesh - almost lost in all this is
ReplyDeleteBy Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Private-sector employment rose 43,000 in October, a climb that nonetheless is not strong enough to lower the unemployment rate, according to a report released Wednesday by ADP.
According to ADP, since employment started rising in February, the monthly gain has averaged 34,000.
Unemployment comes Friday right?
I'm with you, Rock. Higher end retail will do just fine and maybe even VERY well, but mid to lower end not so much.
ReplyDeleteThor - That is because Target Store is not giving out free coffee.
ReplyDeleteAnd in fact if you go into their break room to try and get a cup, you get in trouble :(
Mutt
@free Coffee
ReplyDeleteFirst you have to get the bag.....
The fact that it is still meandering and not selling off (still no fear) makes me think that this thing will break out to the upside. Big money are still more afraid of missing more of the up move rather than waiting for better prices.
ReplyDeleteThe market usually does the big zig zag (up, down, up or vice versas) after the announcement so we will see if is going to finally zig or zag.
@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteI forgot to mention my favorite short, X.
As we know, their report was a disaster. on the daily, there's an almost perfect Gravestone Dojii. The relative strength has recovered from about -16 to 0, but it has just started to turn south again. The gravestone dojii was set up on the 60 minute chart by the RR tracks, with follow-through on the negative side with some reasonable volume. Additionally, it can't break through its previous high of 46.69 on Oct 11.
So fundies and technicals point, it's weak. From a products standpoint, there aren't a lot of shovel-ready projects that need large quantities of I-beams and pipe--thanks to Obama's focus on health insurance.
I'm waiting for the Fed, but I'm thinking a market entry of a short around 44 is where I'll be.
Anecdotally, my area has seen new permanent shops, not just faux ones for the holidays, and a large shopping center that has been 3/4 empty since it was built in 2006 is now about 90% full. These are recent improvements. Still a lot of store fronts empty, but that could be do to high rent. I would bet that there were huge rent concessions to get these places rented so quickly.
ReplyDeleteI watched the whole Obama press conference. He started strong, but at the end, he looked like a tired, down man.
ReplyDeleteHe did say they would look at the 1099 extra work for administration of the healthcare plan. That was completely crazy in the first place.
And, I'm with Dss: We will Zig higher, but not until we Zag lower for a short time. There's often a headfake on these big Fed announcements, and I think I saw a study that said most times the first move is the wrong one.
Denise - here too. The building my company moved in to two years ago (three floors) has had no other tenants in it since we moved in. We're right next door to Hulu, and IMax so it's not like this is a dead area. I was talking to our facilities manager and he was telling us that the building recently dropped their asking price for rent about 20% and immediately filled the building!
ReplyDeleteGuess that was a case of renters and landlords playing chicken and the landlords finally blinking.
Denise (1:59) - That is along the lines I am thinking and why I am waiting. I have yet to put any money down, so if it does break higher, no loss, if it breaks and stays lower oh well there will be another oppertunity at some point and at least I don't have a loss.
ReplyDeleteSee I am learning a thing or two from you guys, it just takes awhile :)
And yes I will be putting in stops this time.
Mangy Mutt
I can see that P3 is just around the corner.
ReplyDelete@Mutt,
ReplyDeleteWhich is why a buy stop to pull you into the market is a better strategy than trying to catch a falling knife.
As I said, there is more fear about missing the move than anything else.
ReplyDeleteCan we pop to new highs?
ReplyDeleteThe billionaires have suffered enough through this recession, it looks like they will get to keep their tax cuts.
ReplyDeleteMr. Market not immediately liking Benny's QE plans.
ReplyDelete@dss
ReplyDeleteYou bet! We're finishing this day up a little. But we have to zag first.
More than an hour and a half to go, anything can happen, down or up. Or to confound everyone, sideways.
ReplyDelete600 Billion is all they're pushing for? So much for my "it has to be 1 trillion"
ReplyDeleteLet's see how Mr. Market likes it though.
Denise
ReplyDeleteSorry it took me that long I couldn't find my cane.
Yes, Wolfie's charts
And about the direction is hard to make a prediction especially about the future:)
But I think we go up
Dan
ACAS and AMR doing good and EK trying to break.
ReplyDeleteNo fear. Isn't that an ad slogan for Nike?
ReplyDeleteLike a monster from the deep, it zigged, it zagged, what comes next is anyone's guess.
ReplyDeleteVXX to new lows.
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe Mr. Market DOES indeed like it? More pain for the most players (especially the small ones) coming. I can feel it my bones.
ReplyDelete@Thor
ReplyDeleteThe total number the Fed will buy is basically 2X what the Fed's been buying as a result of the maturing of their current balance sheet.
Remember the 600B is through June, so that's 6 months. I think they're currently buying about 80B per month, but the NY Fed's info is a little obfuscational, so it could be 100B. Anyway, they upped it to around 180-200Billion per month, because they never said they would be changing their reinvestment policy.
So it's time for "up, up and away in my beautiful balloon"....
@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteOh, well, so much for my almost perfect Gravestone Dojii on X.....
Denise - "No Fear" is the slogan for The Little Chappel House in Los Vegas.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Too bad I didn't jump on this retail short. Damn.
ReplyDeleteUPDATE 2-HSNi sees freight costs hurting margins, shares fall
12:28 pm ET 11/03/2010- Reuters
* Q3 EPS $0.25 vs EPS $0.29 year ago
* Revenue up 10 pct to $708.4 mln
* Q3 hit by lower gross margins
* Shares fall 12 pct (Rewrites, adds conference call details, share movement)
BANGALORE, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Teleshopping and e-commerce operator HSN Inc , which posted its lowest quarterly profit in more than a year, said the higher freight costs that squeezed margins would continue in the near term.
HSNi shares, which were down 6 percent after the company reported quarterly results, fell as much as 12 percent to $26.29 Wednesday on Nasdaq.
HSNi, which sells its products through the Internet and also at brick-and-mortar stores, said gross margins in third quarter declined to 35.3 percent from 37 percent a year ago.
"We are looking to offset the pressure through selective price adjustments that would make sense, as well as reducing further costs," a company executive said on a conference call with analysts.
HSNi, which competes with other multichannel retailers like QVC Inc and ValueVision Media Inc , said operating expenses rose 4 percent at its HSN segment due to brand promotional activities for its newly launched channel and costs related to a legal settlement.
The company also said it was working with the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission about a product recall at its Cornerstone segment, which largely sells home goods.
For July-September, the company earned $14.9 million, or 25 cents a share, compared with $16.6 million, or 29 cents a share, a year ago.
Revenue at the company, with a market value of about $1.68 billion, rose 10 percent to $708.4 million.
Analysts on average were expecting the company to earn 33 cents a share, on revenue of $682.9 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
HSNi stock, which has nearly doubled in value in the past year, was down 9 percent at $27.08 in midday trade. About 2 million shares had traded hands, more than six times the stock's average volume. (Reporting by NR Sethuraman in Bangalore; Editing by Unnikrishnan Nair, Anne Pallivathuckal)
.
@Rock
ReplyDeleteIf I'm not mistaken the tech bubble saw it's last 4 months with an infusion of 20 billion per month in the stock market.
So we are talking 10 times bigger but in the bonds market.Sounds like a lot of money anyway.
Dan
That's my little song, Rock. Haven't used it in a while, but I guess it's appropo now..........."up, up, and awaaaay, my beautiful, my beautiful bAAA-lllooooooooonnnn"....
ReplyDeleteDenise (2:58) - That is why I have not gotten in yet, better safe then sorry.
ReplyDeleteAlong the lines you layed out earlier, I believed (Correctly) that we will end in green today, if/since that is the case, I believe we will end up for the week.
Will the momentum carry through into and past next week, well that is anybodies guess.
But because there is no fear (at this point) and VXX is hitting all times lows, it seems like a good move for a novice, like myself.
If/when we have a correction VXX has the chance to make a pretty big move, I am just hoping I can make my move at the right time.
Mutt
Rock - Ah, only through JUNE! Got it, so there could (will) be another 600 for the second half of the year.
ReplyDeleteLucky us :-/
Just for fun, take a look at EEM volume on the 15 minute chart.
ReplyDeleteThink everybody knows we're giving away that 180B per month? I think I'll nibble a little here.
Bloomberg just figured it out, that the 100B per month is being added to the purchase from the Fed's retiring debt. Wow.
Get all in, folks.pick something that's down and go for a ride!
@Dastro
ReplyDeleteU B RIGHT!!!
Bloomberg TV's quote is "This puts tremendous pressure on the market".
Um, I think they mean upwards.
So Dss, looks like from -.60 we're up to +.30.
Hope you're having a sunny day!!!
Not trading today, Rock. Just watching.
ReplyDeleteRock
ReplyDeleteYes people are going to come to the realization that they could be price out foreva' it will take a few days to believe their eyes, that we are going up for sure; so when they hope in we are around nov 17 and get a drop.Will see
Dan
I hope Leftback is OK. Since the Fed's not buying 30 year, wow look at the TLT
ReplyDeletePriced in? More QE? How about $2 Trillion? I'll be that wasn't priced in and would cause stocks to go wild. Just wild. How about it Benny?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/business/global/04markets.html?hp
My God! I'm making money and the market's not even open!
ReplyDeleteI'm going to sleep. I can't wait to see my accounts when I wake up.
Look at that VMW go! OOH, I love cloud computing! (maybe Thor would do a post on the reality of cloud computing....)
can’t see how last night’s elections or these money machination shell games are going to do anything remotely different to help Main Street and small businesses. Am I missing something?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/03/federal-reserve-qe2_n_778392.html
Pretty impressive day but not unexpected.
ReplyDeleteI never covered my baby short. Now almost even. Just up a smidgeon. Ugh. Oh well, this one may get added to in the coming days and weeks. I figured that overall the gains were too small to bother covering right now, although it would have been better than what might end up being a loss now?
ReplyDeleteThe second mouse did get the cheese.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteIf this breakout holds I would not want to be short.
Not a huge upside break out, could end up to be another bull trap, but I would not ignore it.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, Denise, although the company I've been shorting hasn't always moved in tandem with the markets.
ReplyDeleteBusy friggin' day :-/
ReplyDeleteBusy indeed, wow, we finished up. That's a new high for the year on the DOW right? Wasn't the April high 11,205? We're within spitting distance of the April high for the S&P too.
ReplyDeleteWhere was I Can today? Cotton chart is awesome.
ReplyDeleteNeed I say who called that one, Thor?
ReplyDelete@Denise, Dastro,
ReplyDelete"Fear about being left behind". Long time bear at TBP, Dead Hobo - buying today. Look at his comment under "QE = 6B"
I Can
@Denise,
ReplyDeleteBusy today.
Re Cotton. Can you say DGDF(a bit of fundamental reason). Good for my parents( Cotton farmers). I am not in favor of mindless speculation. There is no free lunch. We, all, will pay for that reckless printing by the 2 major CBs- Japan and the U.S. Fed.
I Can
Manny,
ReplyDeleteYou were dead right. Congratulations!
I Can,
ReplyDeleteI didn't know that DH was a bear. Interesting capitulation if he means it.
I Can,
ReplyDeleteNo need to explain, this is just a silly blog that is pretty unimportant in the scheme of real life.
Next stop 1300.
ReplyDeleteFrom Canada -
ReplyDeleteBHP's bid of Potash has been rejected by the Feds. BHP given 30 days for apeal.
"With new Congress, Canada can expect trade, border flare-ups". www.theglobeandmail.com
But aren't Rs pro-business?
It's now Japan's turn to print.
I Can
Manny - that would be YOU that called that one! :-) Very good call.
ReplyDeleteYuan(CNY) is red. Gold flat. Dollar is catching a bid.
ReplyDeleteI Can
Will the Fed ever hike rates?
ReplyDeleteUnlikely. With massive amount of debt, they can just print.
Farce.
I Can
ICan - not likely!
ReplyDeleteTo my Democratic friends I sympathize, to those of you who may be Republican, you do realize that Jan Brewer and Rick Scott are in your party. I mean you do know that, right?
ReplyDeleteGreg - Thank you, we shall persevere.
ReplyDeleteThanks I-Can I'm going o read it.
ReplyDeleteHe's a well grounded guy I'll see his take.
Dan
Hong Kong hits new high
ReplyDeleteHong Kong shares climb set yet another 28-month high, as Fed news boosts banks and property.
Thor - It is nice to know the banks are going to make out ok with all this QE4Evah, cuz they will just trickle it on down to us and in a couple few years everything will be a ok.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Asia rallying. Rock, are you making money? ;-)
ReplyDelete