Hello everybody,
Sorry yesterday was rushing to finish what I promised past week (to post posible outcomes in a group of stocks) that Rock brought to everybody's attention.
There are mistakes, god dammit! yes for each one of the 21 charts I have to check an extra 4 to 6 charts to be sure that they respond historically giving me an "edge".
So after 90-120 charts the past 9 days my eyes started seeing funny things.
So no SLV, I meant Schlumberger SLB.
I didn't include EMC, I have a few errors so here I go again.Apologize for the misstatements.
And remember that this is for general trend that goes up otherwise the effects got diminished or altered beyond recognition.
XOM Among the best of the pack. If keeps grinding up now will last at leat to the second week of February. Posible correction Jan16-29.
If doesn't move much now I would watch Jan 16- 29 as correction time or at least sideways and the chance to make a bottom there and pick up momentun really big for a while, in this second scenario will be a multi months starting in February 2011.
MA Another with first class potential.If it drop will be little now. If it drops more should be till around Jan 21 and snapp back.September 2010 saw her bottom for a long while. Mid 2011 could be excellent for her.
TDW First days of July 2010 made the low for the year.Could keep going up now indeed but I'll pay attention to the first two weeks of December because there's risk to repeat the same impulsiveness observed in July so watch out.
After that is probably moving very steadily in a measure up movement till at least mid february 2011.
EMC Is going to drop. Maybe not right now (it can keep going up with the trend) but I would be carefull. Around Dec 8 is the first weak spot and/or March-April 2011.
It should see a sizable drop or start chopping even though the trend goes up and when the trend stops she should correct 25%-30%. (Percentage numbers doesn't come with Astrology I mentioned them to offer a picture of what I would expect).
PLCE This is good probably will outperform the trend in case it goes up but nothing spectacular.
But a very good one.
PVG There are reasons to believe that this could have a very huge run up right now, like end of Nov early Dec. Can correct a little more but not for long.Keep an eye on any strong movement because can keep going and going. If I'm right by March can display an important 3-4 months leg up in a chart.
HTS During the second week of December can finally resolve the choppiness.
It very much depends what the trend do at that time. There are good things but all in all honestly I don't like it too much. Will see.
URBN This is a very good one could jump more then start consolidating something but will resume to the upside; good for a long term (couple years) of course with ups and downs but is very good.
SLB I don't like this too much (to the upside) till mid 2011 to clear several things and at that point the trend could not be helping much.Even though can have it's moment late Feb mid March 2011 after that not too impresive.
BJ I don't see it going anywhere for months. Will see how wrong I am LOL.
Probably reach a top for a while and will start correcting-chopping.
DRQ It got chances to keep going up.Sure, but I will be terrorized if I had to be long around Christmas (26 really) and Feb 16. Of course is going to come down sometime and the first two dates are what I mentioned above, if it survives should be a good profit but man that's risky.
VAR Probably will have a correction in 5 or 6 days.Will see. And by Feb 17-18 should find a bottom.
Second option is keep going up and black out by Feb 17-18 but I prefer a lot more the first scenario.
BKE It got a huge drop ending in August and recovered. Probably will keep going up. Be carefull right now for 4-5 days could reverse violently and if keeps going late January first week of Feb could see a big top.
MEE Starting Dec 03 2010, this is bad. Kind of like Oh my God, that's bad! That kind of bad.
Probably can muster up something but at the earliest will be March. Anyways is bad, really bad.
MW Nothing to write home about could follow the trend but in Apr-May can be a different story.
DFS For the next 3 months doesn't look with a lot of upside.
DKS A trend follower. Anyway is going to have it's explosions but they are going to be quieter and quieter after April 2011.
KLAC Is going to be range bound for several months.So long and short long and short could be one strategy.
NTAP Could keep going till Jan 11-13 or (if the market goes down) by January 20 and or March 13 could be good times for a move up but I don't see too much potential to the upside at that point.
RL Starting the new year could have a big drop I would be very careful around Jan 5. I doubt that it'll go up much.
MIPPS It had a nice run up probably can keep going one more month then probably will start some long consolidation. Will see.
I'm done.
Dan
Good week pick for all the bad the news to show up. Turkey week in the U.S.
ReplyDeleteN. Korea, Ireland politics and finance, China's inflation, Spain, insider trading in the U.S. and two year high inflatin in Canada. Negative real interest rates now. Bank of Canada has been caught cheating seniors and people on fixed income. Inflation rate is 2.4% while prime rate is 1%
So, Dan is this just short term correction ?
I Can
Watching 79.46 on the USDX - break through the downtrend.
ReplyDeleteI Can
^ to the upside.
ReplyDeleteI Can
Thks Dan. Pity I don't trade US stocks anymore, only French. Maybe I'll chart some of your picks to see if anything catches my eye.
ReplyDeleteFor the big picture, I'm still hoping for further short term weakness in the markets. SPX 1165 or even better 1150 may make for a nice entry to go long, if we ever get there..
EMA(50) 1172 down side support on S&P.
ReplyDeleteYet, POMO this week. Where will all that money go?
I Can
Finally, a new reason for stocks to decline, war in Korea.
ReplyDelete"Cotton sales from India may fall short". Farmers and middlemen hoarding.
ReplyDelete"Oil supply drops in survey as U.S.refinery demand climbs".
noir.bloomberg.com/news/regions.html
I Can
Morning all! Wow Dan, you've been busy! :-)
ReplyDeleteDenise - I heard about that on the radio! I think this would be an excellent time to close our bases in SK once and for all. Let China guarantee their security for the next 50 years.
ReplyDeleteDan - Thanks for taking the time to work that up. I made a short(er) list of your picks and will check into them.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Thor - As much sense as it would make to close our bases in SK, it will never happen.
ReplyDeleteIt seems like once TPTB get an idea in their head it is difficult to reverse it.
Mutt
King dollar continuing its weekly uptrend.
ReplyDeleteThe fund sting just got a little wider. How far down the rat hole will they go? Me-thinks not too far because what they'd likely find is an entire industry rife with criminality and fraud, but then again, most of us know that already.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/598-billion-wellington-management-busted
Isn't QE2 supposed to be tanking the dollar? ;-)
ReplyDeleteIreland and the rest of the PIIGS are helping keep the dollar up.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Whenever I get worried about being long-term bullish on China, I'll go listen to an average Republican voter talk about foreign policy ("All our problems can be solved with a war!") and be at peace.
ReplyDelete@Thor: That might be a intended by-product of it, but it's a race to the bottom on currencies, maybe it's going to yo-yo back and forth for a while.
ReplyDeleteEmmanuel11y - It is always nice to know that we can solve our problems with war, but it is also nice to know it can bring piece :)
ReplyDeleteMangy Mutt
Emmie - God, me too! Can't wait for the ratcheting up of the War Talk. Fun times :-/
ReplyDeleteMutt - One of the few things I agree with the Libertarians on, is the desire to close all foreign military bases. Let the rest of the world take care of itself for awhile.
Markets sure don't like the threat of war
ReplyDeleteSAC and Janus next?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/sac-discloses-government-subpoena
Not just war, Thor. There is instability everywhere. Today's news merely reinforces that, I think.
ReplyDeleteManny - I know, I don't mean to sound dramatic, but it does sort of feel as though things are unravelling at a greater speed.
ReplyDeleteThor - They will plaster over all this news and everyone will think everything is great.
ReplyDeleteIt might not be today or tomorrow, but they will make people think everything is fine. We (As far as I am concerned) still in the midst of a terrible ressetion, yet MSM makes everyone think we are in a recovery.
Mutt
Here comes the beginning of the end . . . The complete politicization of the Federal Reserve. Lucky us.
ReplyDeleteBy DAVID WESSEL
With unemployment at 9.6% and inflation below the Federal Reserve's working definition of "price stability," this seems a strange moment for Congress to contemplate instructing the Fed to focus exclusively on fighting inflation.
But Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) wants to revive that notion, which has lain dormant for more than a decade because there has been so little inflation. "I am concerned about inflation down the road," he explains. "The time is right for us to bring clarity to the Fed." In the House, Paul Ryan (R. Wisc.) and Michael Pence (R., Indiana) agree. Mr. Pence argues that the Fed's quest to combat unemployment by buying $600 billion in U.S. Treasurys is a failure and threatens to "monetize our debt and trigger inflation."
Took a small nibble on some UUP today. We shall see. Might grab more on some dips. Think we see a weakening EURO and strengthening dollar for a while before it yo-yo's again. What does everyone else think?
ReplyDeleteMannwich - I think we are going to be seeing a race to the bottom as far as currencies go, last couple months has been $$ turn, now with the PIIGS it looks like EUROs turn.
ReplyDeleteHeck if you can stay in front of that you might be able to pick up a couple bucks
Mutt
@jeff(5:11)
ReplyDeleteWith all that noise in the market, vix is still around 20, DXY cannot break the downtrend line, materially above 79.46.
Right now CAD is green agains major currencies except the AUD.
Maybe bounce coming Wed.?
I Can
I Can
ReplyDeleteBack in Augusst when I was studying possible otcomesfor the next 4-5 months I thoght that nov 17 an important time in my view will be the start of a correction that was elusive.
Start correcting one week before and not impulsively so I start thinking that nov 17 could be the end (or bottom) of the correction.
Up to now I preferred this view unless proven wrong with the markets starting going down impulsively,if that doesn't appear soon the equity market goes up.Will see.
And about the news, is infrecuent an important down move with bad news to me they look as of today just like the wall of worries in an uptrend.
Of course a nuclear attack by N.Korea will be more than the wall of worry but honestly, I dont't think he is going to spread that crap on a neighbour in the same island.
Dan
Let's hope not! I fear that one of these days he's going to push a little too hard, and someone is going to over react and it's going to end badly.
ReplyDeleteI meant
ReplyDelete...is infrecuent an important down move starts with bad news.
Next time you hear someone go on about how shitty American tastes have become lately. Take a look at the below. It's number FOUR on the music charts in Germany today.
ReplyDeletehttp://top40-charts.com/songs/media.php?sid=30101
Futures up
ReplyDelete